Doug Casey's Take

Episode: Skyscraper Effect, Resource Revolution & More

Host: Matthew Smith
Guest: Doug Casey
Date: November 21, 2025

Main Theme

This lively listener Q&A episode dives into current existential trends and looming opportunities in economics, technology, and geopolitics. Doug Casey, known for his iconoclastic global perspective and deep experience as author, speculator, and libertarian thinker, takes on big questions about AI disruption, commodity investing, rare earth supply chains, the “skyscraper effect,” war economies, and the unique cultural character of Uruguay.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Impact of AI on Business Value

• Discussion:
  • Doug Casey and Matthew Smith debate whether there are any long-term safe havens from AI disruption.
  • Doug warns more about government overreach and UBI than technological unemployment itself, suggesting “infinite desire for goods and services” will always create opportunities.
  • Matthew: White-collar jobs will be hit first; blue-collar jobs might benefit initially, but nothing is ultimately safe from automation.
  • Both agree: technology is not the danger; "who controls it" is.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Value of businesses is that AI can't replace...well, robots will do everything. But everybody turns out has an infinite desire for goods and services...” — Doug Casey [02:08]
  • “As usual, the intervention of the state, which is organized coercion run by the worst kind of people, inevitably poisons everything around us.” — Doug Casey [06:01]
  • “It's those people who understand it and can leverage it have the most to gain. Whereas those who are victims of it...are going to get crushed.” — Matthew Smith [06:53]
• Timestamps:
  [00:00] – [07:44]

2. The Skyscraper Effect as a Predictor of Downturns—Is Punta del Este Next?

• Discussion:
  • The “skyscraper index” suggests massive building booms can signal economic tops.
  • Doug is skeptical of over-relying on the effect, especially for local markets like Punta del Este, Uruguay. More bullish due to unique local demand.
  • Discussion draws historical parallels and tempers with migration, lifestyle, and pandemic lessons.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Of all the things in the world, a desert in the middle of nowhere. And well, it all gets back to the way a country is...governed.” — Doug Casey [11:47]
• Timestamps:
  [07:44] – [13:02]

3. Commodities: Buy, Sell, or Hold? (Gold, Silver, Uranium, Rare Earths)

• Discussion:
  • Doug is unequivocally bullish across the board. Gold at highs, but public isn't buying (central banks are). Silver, uranium, rare earths seen as “cheap.” Cautions against fear from all-time highs.
  • Mining companies, in his view, are primed for the next upswing.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “You gotta be on the buy side of all of them...All the commodities are cheap. That’s the next place the market's gonna go.” — Doug Casey [13:26]
• Timestamps:
  [13:02] – [15:15]

4. The Transformational Value of Writing a Book

• Discussion:
  • Matthew is personally fulfilled and feels commercial success (book sales) is secondary to its impact—especially on his own son. Doug is also proud, viewing it as “good karma,” and notes the difficulty of reaching their sales milestone as self-publishers.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “I think it really has had a profoundly positive impact on my son. And honestly, I could care less about the other things.” — Matthew Smith [16:27]
  • “I think we’re selling something that needs to be sold and is needed by the market.” — Doug Casey [17:39]
• Timestamps:
  [15:15] – [18:09]

5. Rare Earths: China’s Monopoly and Future Production

• Discussion:
  • Doug says China’s dominance is practical, not mystical; others can catch up if margins remain. Predicts monopoly over within five years as regulatory obstacles are overcome by necessity.
  • U.S./Canadian government involvement in mining is “idiotic but bullish for attention,” expects more investor focus.
  • MP Materials cited as an early, successful recommendation to subscribers.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Anybody can do it. This isn’t a secret that the Chinese have. It’s just a question of can we find the deposit...It’ll happen.” — Doug Casey [18:41]
  • “In five years the Chinese won't have a monopoly anymore and it'll be a non-problem.” — Doug Casey [19:34]
• Timestamps:
  [18:09] – [21:40]

6. The “Higher Ground” Novel Series

• Discussion:
  • Doug updates on the anticipated fourth novel, featuring lead character Charles Knight now as a “terrorist"—but “a good guy freedom fighter.” He promises to finish by spring.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “He’s been a speculator and he’s been a drug lord and he’s been an assassin. And the next one which is coming up is terrorist, which is near and dear to my heart...” — Doug Casey [22:03]
• Timestamps:
  [21:40] – [23:19]

7. Monetary Metals & Lending Gold

• Discussion:
  • Both express skepticism: gold’s role is as a backstop without counterparty risk, and lending gold for a couple percent is not worth it given historic precedent of confiscation and risk.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “My gold is like, it’s the ultimate backstop. It’s the one thing I wouldn’t want any counterparty risk on.” — Matthew Smith [24:20]
  • “Why take the risk? For a couple, 3% per year, you got the risk and the gold’s not in your possession, and maybe it never will be.” — Doug Casey [24:45]
• Timestamps:
  [23:19] – [25:06]

8. War Economies—Are They Inevitable?

• Discussion:
  • Doug argues that states are inherently predatory and that preparing for war creates a self-reinforcing logic for conflict. Modern war is less about resources or slaves, more about production destruction, but the logic persists.
  • The Venezuela example is used to expose how war motivations are often presented under false pretenses and pretexts.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “War economy, bad thing. And like, I think...who was it, Sterner, said...‘war is the health of the state.’” — Doug Casey [25:43]
  • “The state produces nothing...historically the best way to get stuff you wanted was to steal it from other people.” — Doug Casey [27:12]
  • “Morality has been purged from...the American political system, domestically and internationally.” — Doug Casey [31:36]
• Timestamps:
  [25:06] – [32:14]

9. Is Uruguay “Backward”—and Is It Really a Bad Thing?

• Discussion:
  • Doug describes Uruguay as “backward in time”—peaceful, cautious, slow to change—recalling his first visit in 1980 felt “like the 1930s.” But he finds appeal in this “quiet” and “good” backwardness; pandemic reinforced advantages.
  • Matthew discusses why ambition seems scarce, linking to cultural phenomena like New Zealand’s tall poppy syndrome.
  • Both recently became Uruguayan citizens.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Listen, backward, which means mostly quiet now, I think it’s pretty good.” — Doug Casey [34:07]
  • “Who wouldn’t want to go back in time, even just 20 years? Was the quality of life generally better? I’d say it was.” — Matthew Smith [36:26]
• Timestamps:
  [32:14] – [38:26]

10. Plan B: Uruguay as a Safe Haven—And What About Europe?

• Discussion:
  • Positive feedback on their Uruguay conference; a listener decided to relocate.
  • Doug and Matthew see no standout “Plan B” destinations in Europe due to instability, historical grievances, immigration tensions, and “sinking ship” governance.
  • Portugal’s canceled golden passport cited as emblematic of unreliable policies.
  • Doug predicts breakup for Europe and the EU, expects civil strife and loss of free speech.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “These governments…I mean, no guarantees, they’re all unpredictable.” — Doug Casey [40:20]
  • “That’s the crazy thing, sinking ship. Too bad Western civilization was so nice while it lasted.” — Doug Casey [43:09]
• Timestamps:
  [38:26] – [43:17]

Notable Quotes (with Attribution & Timestamp)

• “The technology is not the danger, it’s who controls the technology.” — Doug Casey [06:01]
• “You gotta be on the buy side of all of them. All the commodities are cheap. That's the next place the market's gonna go.” — Doug Casey [13:26]
• “War is the health of the state.” — Doug Casey quoting Randolph Bourne [25:43]
• “Listen, backward, which means mostly quiet now, I think it’s pretty good.” — Doug Casey [34:07]
• “That’s the crazy thing, sinking ship. Too bad Western civilization was so nice while it lasted.” — Doug Casey [43:09]
• “It’s those people who understand [AI] and can leverage it have the most to gain. Whereas those who are victims of it...are going to get crushed.” — Matthew Smith [06:53]
• “I could care less about the other things…It really has had a profoundly positive impact on my son.” — Matthew Smith [16:27]

Memorable Moments & Personal Revelations

• Doug and Matthew both recently gained Uruguayan citizenship [37:44].
• Candid admissions about their personal preferences: gold as a personal backstop, skepticism towards counterparty risk, and the subtle upsides of “backwardness.”
• Doug’s forthcoming novel to feature a protagonist as both “terrorist” and “freedom fighter;” playful acknowledgment of being “politically incorrect.”

Conclusion

This episode offers Casey’s characteristic, irreverent blend of macro insight, skepticism of mainstream narratives, and personal candor. From AI anxiety to the European “sinking ship,” the advice to listeners is clear: understand the tools, consider geography (Plan B!), watch government risk, and see opportunity even in “backward” places. Engaging and often subversive, the conversation never loses its tone of experienced, dry wit—or warning.