Skyscraper Effect, Resource Revolution & More

Summary

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Doug Casey's Take

Episode: Skyscraper Effect, Resource Revolution & More

Host: Matthew Smith
Guest: Doug Casey
Date: November 21, 2025

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Main Theme

This lively listener Q&A episode dives into current existential trends and looming opportunities in economics, technology, and geopolitics. Doug Casey, known for his iconoclastic global perspective and deep experience as author, speculator, and libertarian thinker, takes on big questions about AI disruption, commodity investing, rare earth supply chains, the “skyscraper effect,” war economies, and the unique cultural character of Uruguay.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Impact of AI on Business Value

• Discussion:
  • Doug Casey and Matthew Smith debate whether there are any long-term safe havens from AI disruption.
  • Doug warns more about government overreach and UBI than technological unemployment itself, suggesting “infinite desire for goods and services” will always create opportunities.
  • Matthew: White-collar jobs will be hit first; blue-collar jobs might benefit initially, but nothing is ultimately safe from automation.
  • Both agree: technology is not the danger; "who controls it" is.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Value of businesses is that AI can't replace...well, robots will do everything. But everybody turns out has an infinite desire for goods and services...” — Doug Casey [02:08]
  • “As usual, the intervention of the state, which is organized coercion run by the worst kind of people, inevitably poisons everything around us.” — Doug Casey [06:01]
  • “It's those people who understand it and can leverage it have the most to gain. Whereas those who are victims of it...are going to get crushed.” — Matthew Smith [06:53]
• Timestamps:
  [00:00] – [07:44]

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2. The Skyscraper Effect as a Predictor of Downturns—Is Punta del Este Next?

• Discussion:
  • The “skyscraper index” suggests massive building booms can signal economic tops.
  • Doug is skeptical of over-relying on the effect, especially for local markets like Punta del Este, Uruguay. More bullish due to unique local demand.
  • Discussion draws historical parallels and tempers with migration, lifestyle, and pandemic lessons.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Of all the things in the world, a desert in the middle of nowhere. And well, it all gets back to the way a country is...governed.” — Doug Casey [11:47]
• Timestamps:
  [07:44] – [13:02]

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3. Commodities: Buy, Sell, or Hold? (Gold, Silver, Uranium, Rare Earths)

• Discussion:
  • Doug is unequivocally bullish across the board. Gold at highs, but public isn't buying (central banks are). Silver, uranium, rare earths seen as “cheap.” Cautions against fear from all-time highs.
  • Mining companies, in his view, are primed for the next upswing.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “You gotta be on the buy side of all of them...All the commodities are cheap. That’s the next place the market's gonna go.” — Doug Casey [13:26]
• Timestamps:
  [13:02] – [15:15]

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4. The Transformational Value of Writing a Book

• Discussion:
  • Matthew is personally fulfilled and feels commercial success (book sales) is secondary to its impact—especially on his own son. Doug is also proud, viewing it as “good karma,” and notes the difficulty of reaching their sales milestone as self-publishers.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “I think it really has had a profoundly positive impact on my son. And honestly, I could care less about the other things.” — Matthew Smith [16:27]
  • “I think we’re selling something that needs to be sold and is needed by the market.” — Doug Casey [17:39]
• Timestamps:
  [15:15] – [18:09]

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5. Rare Earths: China’s Monopoly and Future Production

• Discussion:
  • Doug says China’s dominance is practical, not mystical; others can catch up if margins remain. Predicts monopoly over within five years as regulatory obstacles are overcome by necessity.
  • U.S./Canadian government involvement in mining is “idiotic but bullish for attention,” expects more investor focus.
  • MP Materials cited as an early, successful recommendation to subscribers.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Anybody can do it. This isn’t a secret that the Chinese have. It’s just a question of can we find the deposit...It’ll happen.” — Doug Casey [18:41]
  • “In five years the Chinese won't have a monopoly anymore and it'll be a non-problem.” — Doug Casey [19:34]
• Timestamps:
  [18:09] – [21:40]

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6. The “Higher Ground” Novel Series

• Discussion:
  • Doug updates on the anticipated fourth novel, featuring lead character Charles Knight now as a “terrorist"—but “a good guy freedom fighter.” He promises to finish by spring.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “He’s been a speculator and he’s been a drug lord and he’s been an assassin. And the next one which is coming up is terrorist, which is near and dear to my heart...” — Doug Casey [22:03]
• Timestamps:
  [21:40] – [23:19]

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7. Monetary Metals & Lending Gold

• Discussion:
  • Both express skepticism: gold’s role is as a backstop without counterparty risk, and lending gold for a couple percent is not worth it given historic precedent of confiscation and risk.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “My gold is like, it’s the ultimate backstop. It’s the one thing I wouldn’t want any counterparty risk on.” — Matthew Smith [24:20]
  • “Why take the risk? For a couple, 3% per year, you got the risk and the gold’s not in your possession, and maybe it never will be.” — Doug Casey [24:45]
• Timestamps:
  [23:19] – [25:06]

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8. War Economies—Are They Inevitable?

• Discussion:
  • Doug argues that states are inherently predatory and that preparing for war creates a self-reinforcing logic for conflict. Modern war is less about resources or slaves, more about production destruction, but the logic persists.
  • The Venezuela example is used to expose how war motivations are often presented under false pretenses and pretexts.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “War economy, bad thing. And like, I think...who was it, Sterner, said...‘war is the health of the state.’” — Doug Casey [25:43]
  • “The state produces nothing...historically the best way to get stuff you wanted was to steal it from other people.” — Doug Casey [27:12]
  • “Morality has been purged from...the American political system, domestically and internationally.” — Doug Casey [31:36]
• Timestamps:
  [25:06] – [32:14]

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9. Is Uruguay “Backward”—and Is It Really a Bad Thing?

• Discussion:
  • Doug describes Uruguay as “backward in time”—peaceful, cautious, slow to change—recalling his first visit in 1980 felt “like the 1930s.” But he finds appeal in this “quiet” and “good” backwardness; pandemic reinforced advantages.
  • Matthew discusses why ambition seems scarce, linking to cultural phenomena like New Zealand’s tall poppy syndrome.
  • Both recently became Uruguayan citizens.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Listen, backward, which means mostly quiet now, I think it’s pretty good.” — Doug Casey [34:07]
  • “Who wouldn’t want to go back in time, even just 20 years? Was the quality of life generally better? I’d say it was.” — Matthew Smith [36:26]
• Timestamps:
  [32:14] – [38:26]

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10. Plan B: Uruguay as a Safe Haven—And What About Europe?

• Discussion:
  • Positive feedback on their Uruguay conference; a listener decided to relocate.
  • Doug and Matthew see no standout “Plan B” destinations in Europe due to instability, historical grievances, immigration tensions, and “sinking ship” governance.
  • Portugal’s canceled golden passport cited as emblematic of unreliable policies.
  • Doug predicts breakup for Europe and the EU, expects civil strife and loss of free speech.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “These governments…I mean, no guarantees, they’re all unpredictable.” — Doug Casey [40:20]
  • “That’s the crazy thing, sinking ship. Too bad Western civilization was so nice while it lasted.” — Doug Casey [43:09]
• Timestamps:
  [38:26] – [43:17]

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Notable Quotes (with Attribution & Timestamp)

• “The technology is not the danger, it’s who controls the technology.” — Doug Casey [06:01]
• “You gotta be on the buy side of all of them. All the commodities are cheap. That's the next place the market's gonna go.” — Doug Casey [13:26]
• “War is the health of the state.” — Doug Casey quoting Randolph Bourne [25:43]
• “Listen, backward, which means mostly quiet now, I think it’s pretty good.” — Doug Casey [34:07]
• “That’s the crazy thing, sinking ship. Too bad Western civilization was so nice while it lasted.” — Doug Casey [43:09]
• “It’s those people who understand [AI] and can leverage it have the most to gain. Whereas those who are victims of it...are going to get crushed.” — Matthew Smith [06:53]
• “I could care less about the other things…It really has had a profoundly positive impact on my son.” — Matthew Smith [16:27]

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Memorable Moments & Personal Revelations

• Doug and Matthew both recently gained Uruguayan citizenship [37:44].
• Candid admissions about their personal preferences: gold as a personal backstop, skepticism towards counterparty risk, and the subtle upsides of “backwardness.”
• Doug’s forthcoming novel to feature a protagonist as both “terrorist” and “freedom fighter;” playful acknowledgment of being “politically incorrect.”

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Conclusion

This episode offers Casey’s characteristic, irreverent blend of macro insight, skepticism of mainstream narratives, and personal candor. From AI anxiety to the European “sinking ship,” the advice to listeners is clear: understand the tools, consider geography (Plan B!), watch government risk, and see opportunity even in “backward” places. Engaging and often subversive, the conversation never loses its tone of experienced, dry wit—or warning.

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Transcript

[A]

All right. Good morning, Doug. It's been a while since we've taken questions from our subscribers. If you want to ask questions, go to crisisinvesting.com, become a subscriber. You can contact us through our private app called File, or you can reach out to us on Substack directly and ask your question. So, Doug, first question is, what do you see happening to the value of businesses that AI cannot replace in the coming years?

[B]

You know, I think you can answer that better than I can, but. So what's AI all about? Lots of information gathered on absolutely everything under the sun and integrated. And how do you use this stuff? So what's the direct way for businesses and creating things? Well, that all ties in with robots, and I'm a big fan of robots. Yes, we'll have Terminators, no question about it. But you'll have somebody that can do your dishes as well. So, value of businesses is that AI can't replace. What might they be? Well, what they're talking about, and this relates to universal basic income, as far as I'm concerned, it's that robots will do everything. And some people, the elite and the misguided, think that you're going to have to pay people to exist because they can't earn anything, because robots and AI will do everything, mental and physical. Of course, that's a ridiculous concept because everybody, everybody turns out, has an infinite desire for goods and services. So there will be all kinds of things that AI and robots can't do effectively because everybody's got infinite desires. You can work 24, 7. So just a question of what wage rates you can get or why you do it. So, anyway, answer the question. Yeah, it's going to change things a lot, but I'm not worried about it unless government manages to screw it up by. By paying everybody not to work. I mean, there are some idiots that think that the world's going to turn into a utopia where people will just sit around and think and write and create and they won't have to invent AI will do that or just be artists or turn into Eloy and everything will be great because we'll be paying them to be savants and artists. I don't think it'll turn out that way. They'll actually turn out to be dissipated druggies and. And mindless video consumers. Look, this is going to change the whole nature of the world, especially when nanotechnology starts joining the party in earnest. So, random thoughts? I don't know, Matt.

[A]

Yeah, I'll just say, you know, the, the idea that there are businesses that AI can't replace is just a matter of time I think. Question. Rather than that there's a certain category of jobs that exist today that won't ultimately be affected by AI. You know I, I don't think there's like a. As we might think in the digital world all the office jobs, white collar jobs, those are going to be hit first clearly. But it's not that those blue collar jobs or physical jobs will not ultimately be hit also but it will take longer to build up. Maybe even if the technology is there they actually have to build machines and get them to market that could do those things and that will take time to build up that capacity. So you know, in the shorter term I would imagine, let's say in the you know, one to three year mark, it's basically white collar jobs are in real trouble and the blue collar jobs are going to benefit. So there'll be like deflation and pay of wages in the white collar and inflation in the blue collar I think. But, but ultimately it's just a matter of time. I think everything would be affected by it even. Of course Elon says lots of things that take a lot longer to develop and some that may never develop. But he talks about his you know, optimus robot being able to do surgery even so and you could ultimately you can imagine these things absolutely are possible. But you know, whether or not it's in 10 years or 20 years, I don't know but, but I think ultimately everything goes this way and I think that people worry about it month and the dooms people about the why you need universal basic income. It's that the, the thing is, is that you. In the industrial revolution in the US there were whole new ideas of industry that were created out of that. There was a wholesale loss of jobs of small scale farmers. But like out of that came things that people couldn't imagine like urban planning and cinema for instance, like totally unimaginable concepts. And I think that that's will come out of this too. But you're right, if you pay people a survival level of income then they go well by doing nothing. I get this. If I. It's not really worth me trying to do something to innovate and try and figure out where I can create value around me, you know, and come up with these new industries. So I think that's the biggest risk is that you start subsidizing people enough so there's subsistence level but you know, which steals their motivation to go out and figure things out.

[B]

Yeah, that's a good point. And as usual, the intervention of the state, which is organized coercion run by the worst kind of people, inevitably poisons everything around us. So I'm not worried about advances in technology. They've always been eventually the friend of the common man, making life better and easier and more healthful and everything. It's just that when the state gets hold of AI and robots until they're democratized, which is a word I kind of hate, but anyway, they'll use it to try to rule things and aggrandize themselves. So anyway, the technology is not the danger, it's who controls the technology. And the state always gets it first before it filters down to the average guy. So that's going to be the tough part.

[A]

Yeah, I think for individuals now, the important thing is you should try to embrace the AI, use the tools, figure out like, try and use them to create something actually, you know, get familiar with them. Because in the early phases of this, it can be a massive force multiplier for you competing in the marketplace. It can actually really help you. And as you make the transition to more and more AI, it's those people who understand it and can leverage it have the most to gain. Whereas those who are victims of it because they chose to whistle by the graveyard essentially are going to get crushed. I mean, just a matter of time.

[B]

AI and robots are our friends. It's just that the bad guys are getting them first and so for a while they won't be so friendly.

[A]

Yeah, exactly. Meanwhile though, you still, you can use them to do cool things. You can really try. So next question is applying the skyscraper effect as a forecasting tool. Would it be reasonable to suppose that Cipriani's Punta del Este residency and resort is a precursor to a financial downturn in Punta del Este and more broadly in Uruguay's residential towers real estate market. Cipriani's project seems to qualify as a mega tall project for the area comprised of three towers, one of them which is 60 floors and the other are 30 floors.

[B]

Well, we're both pretty close to Punta del Este, which is one of the. Maybe it's the premier jet set.

[A]

Gathering spot.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yes, in South America or maybe Latin America, quite frankly. So I guess it's going to succeed and the market will come. And I'm not crazy about it actually, because it just means more crowds and this type of thing. But okay. So the skyscraper effect, I guess was first noted in the late 1920s with the building of the Chrysler Building and skyscrapers in Chicago and the Empire State Building and, and that was kind of a sign that people were getting too big for their britches and the market crashed and so forth. So it's happening again because for years this has been true for at least a decade, maybe 15 years, people were remarking on 100 story buildings going up all over the world in China and Dubai. Not so much in the US though, not so much anymore in the US because we're on the slippery slope. So is it true?

[A]

So is it a, is it a prelude to financial downturn?

[B]

Yeah, maybe. Maybe people are, you know, were. I'm not sure they are anymore. Really optimistic and putting huge amounts of money in buildings that might take decades or a decade to occupy. And it's a sign of the top when people are willing to make giant investments because I think everybody, everything is going to be so hunky dory and maybe it will with changes in technology. But anyway, for Punta in particular though.

[A]

How do you think it.

[B]

Yeah, I think it's going to succeed in Punta del Este because I think the world is going to come to this part of South America for lots of reasons. Not just Uruguay, but Argentina too. And of course this is not a question that anybody's asked, but I spent yesterday at a conference about a hundred people, investors and basically Malay friendly locals and internationals too. And they think that Malay is going to pull it off. I think it's a 50, 50. But listen, even 50, 50 chances of something unique in, in history, all of history, those are pretty good odds. So yeah, there's cause for optimism at least down here. I don't know if I'm answering the question or not.

[A]

Yeah, I don't know. I'll just say about my thoughts on the skyscraper effect is. I wonder how I, I get the idea. You know, it could be a sign at the top, like, you know, magazine cover kind of.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

You know, metaphor. Right.

[B]

Too bad they don't have magazines and drugstores so much anymore. Yeah.

[A]

Because yeah, you can't, you can't really use them as a barometer. But. And I, but I bet the magazine cover effect is more accurate than the skyscraper effect because you could have been in Dubai and said, look at these people putting up a skyscraper. This is the end. And it was the beginning. Right?

[B]

Yeah. Of all the things in the world, a desert in the middle of nowhere. And well, it all gets back to the way a country is. Government is, is governed. I mean, if, if the shake in, in the ua, the shakes in the ua, if they were as Stupid as most politicians. The place would still be a desert.

[A]

Yep. Yeah. So I'm not sure if it's. Yeah, I'm just not sure. You have to look at that effect as one thing is like maybe a, you know, an idea of what might be going on. But then you got to look at the other factors like it's, this area is uniquely seen as a place of refuge and leisure to the upper class in especially Brazil and Argentina. And it's like pretty in their bones at this point. The pandemic didn't do enough to make them go away. This year is like going to be the biggest year ever, you know, so, so, so there's other, all these other factors then you have, you know, Europeans moving to Uruguay and Americans moving to Uruguay and frankly there's a shortage of.

[B]

Housing and I, I never thought Canadians would do it, but a lot of Canadians are moving down here too.

[A]

There are, yeah, they definitely are. So there's a lot of factors you have to consider in that. I personally am very bullish on the area. So. Yeah, let's see. Next, next question. Doug, what's the crisis? Investing sentiment or say your sentiment to the following. Commodities, buy, sell or hold Gold, silver, uranium and rare.

[B]

You got to be on the buy side of all of them. And I, as I've said in the past, it scares me when gold is at all time highs 4000. Maybe it's run out of gas, maybe it'll go drop 50%. I don't think so because the public isn't buying gold. Still, there's no indications that that's the case from coin dealers. And this is apparently driven by central banks who want to get out of dollars wholesale and silver, different story, not central banks. But in terms of how high silver is relative to past peaks, it's selling at about 20% in real terms of what it sold for in 1980. Yeah, so I'm bullish. Silver and rare earths, a substantial portion of the periodic table that nobody knew what to do with these things before. But just because of where they are on the table they got unique properties that are most useful for high tech applications, magnetics and electronics. So yep, gotta be bullish there. And you gotta be bullish on oil even though as we speak now oil's down to $57. But I've got to say I was right about natural gas, which is up to about 470, so it's done really well and think we've, we've been natural gas, heavy in energy stocks. Uranium, gotta love it. All the commodities are cheap. That's the next place the market's gonna go. And they're good. The market's gonna go to the companies that mine it too. So I feel pretty good. Even though things have already been pretty good. I. I'm looking to feel much better.

[A]

Cool. Good. Let's see. Did I answer his question on there? I think so, yeah. Okay, next one is. Well, this is, I guess it says, hi, Matt just watched you and Maxim with Glenn Beck. All three of you were fantastic in that interview. And seeing the way you ended the interview explaining how somewhere in the two plus years of the program so far, Max went from being a boy to being a man, really showed how fulfilled you already are by this experiment. So it conjured a question for you mainly, but also for Doug, and he says, I'm not sure it's actually even a fair question, but here it goes. Without fully knowing yet how commercially successful this book will be, where would you rank this book in your list of accomplishments? And actually, will the book's ultimate degree of commercial success even matter at all in your ranking of it? So I'll say that for me personally, because of my personal interest in the topic and that the like, I would count it in the highest list of my accomplishments simply because it, I think it really has had a profoundly positive impact on my son. And honestly, I keep ranking. I could care less about the other things. So. But then also it's been quite fulfilling all the other feedback we've gotten, which has been great. I mean, it's all been great and commercially successful. I don't even know what it means to be commercially successful. But so far the book's been. We've sold almost 14,000 copies of it so far. You know, as a self published thing, that's pretty good. Apparently. You know, it's. I was shocked to learn this, that the, you know, the 58,000 books published each year by the mainstream publishers, among Those, less than 1% of them sell more than 4,000 copies over their lifetime. So that's how bad the book business is. So by that standard, we're crushing it. I mean, we're in the top 1%, you know, probably in the half of 1% by that standard already. So. But yeah, I think we got to sell at least 50,000 before I feel like it's a commercial success. I mean, and I don't really mean by the money, but I mean by getting it out there to enough people where it might be useful enough for enough people.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, that's. I think that's a good assessment and I'm pleased that it's out there and doing well because it's a good karma. I think we're selling something that needs to be sold and is needed by the market. So I feel good about the thing. Not to mention that I've wanted to do it for a decade and it finally got done.

[A]

It's been at least 12 years, Doug. I know for sure because I remember when you told me about it.

[B]

I know it's shocking. Time flies.

[A]

Okay, next question is. With the Chinese stranglehold on rare earth refining and processing and the US scramble for any producers anywhere, what's the real timeline on replacing non Asian production and how does that impact general mining stocks outside of that production sphere? Should we start looking at adjacent tech sectors that could be adopted to processing path?

[B]

Well, look, nobody really knows anything about rare earths but specialists. It's still early days for all this and the Chinese were quite clever in finding viable deposits and doing the things that are needed to mine them because rare earths have. They're not so rare. They're everywhere. So you find the deposit and then apparently it's just very dirty and chemical and nasty stuff intensive to get them out of the ore. But the Chinese have done that. So anybody can do it. This isn't a secret that the Chinese have. It's just a question of can we find the deposit. A lot of them out there in different Australia and Brazil and lots of places. The US everywhere. Everywhere. And build the plant. I mean it'll happen. So you can make. Here's a bet you can make. This is a. This is a very safe bet. In five years, even after all the regulatory hassles which are actually the biggest problem in mining and the biggest problem, they'll cut through all that stuff because the margins are so high. And in five years the Chinese won't have a monopoly anymore and it'll be a non problem.

[A]

And as far we haven't studied the different players in the space beyond our initial review which gave us MP materials which we recommended to subscribers and then that has more than doubled since we recommended it as a US government came in and made an investment in it and Apple came in and invested in it. So but beyond that we haven't really looked at the different stocks in the space. It's just not something we focused on. Is it worth. Would it be worthwhile for me to spend some time on.

[B]

Yeah, we really. We really should do it. It's like hard work and figuring this stuff out. But yeah, I think those Stocks are going to do well. And although it's idiotic for the US Government and now the Canadian government to invest in mining companies, it's. It's actually economically disastrous and stupid. But I always look at the bright side. And the bright side is it's going to draw attention to this sector that nobody knows or cares about. Little crappy companies that have properties and technology and management and expertise. And the public is going to start once again pile into these things. So that's the good news.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. Spent some time on it. I mean, we did come up with MP materials, which I'm quite, quite proud of. That we did that one month before is just with the initial talk around this, they seemed like they were the obvious ones and we guessed right.

[B]

Yeah, we'll find some others.

[A]

Okay, next question. Let's see. Is there a date for the next Higher Ground novel? Said looking forward to the new adventures of Charles Knight. Higher Ground novels are your series of novels that you're writing or you've already written three of them with John Hunt and everyone is eagerly waiting the fourth edition. What's the error?

[B]

Well, yeah, I do recommend this series of novels because they're actually pretty damn good. Tracing our hero, Charles Knight, as he proceeds from one highly politically incorrect occupation to the next one, which is even more politically incorrect and, and besmirched and dangerous. So he's been a speculator and he's been a drug lord and he's been an assassin. And the next one which is coming up is terrorist, which is near and dear to my heart, I think. And John has done his work and now it's up to me to do mine. So then he can proceed as an acknowledged terrorist but a good guy freedom fighter. Yeah, a freedom fighter. Exactly. As he goes back to Africa to become a warlord. So we can show that a warlord can be a good guy. Anyway, it's up to me. And since I'm basically going to try to take off month or more in December, January, I'll get her done.

[A]

So. So we should count on getting it in the spring of next year?

[B]

I think so, yeah.

[A]

Okay, good. I can't wait. All right, let's see. Doug, what do you think of monetary metals? It's been around for a decade with thousands of investors, but it's located in the US With a history of confiscating gold. And the basic concept, I think, is that you lend out your gold and you get paid interest in gold holdings. So. And I think it's basically they're lending out to people in the jewelry industry as a. I think. Is that right?

[B]

I don't know. I haven't followed them, frankly. So I have no personal knowledge. But yeah, look, that's what a bank does, or historically, people like gold brokers used to do. That's how the banking business started. You lend out the gold, but you got to make sure that the loan comes back home after expenses. So I don't know, are they a solid outfit that knows how to make good loans? I. Maybe they are. I don't know.

[A]

Yeah, I don't know either. Like, for me, my gold is like, it's the ultimate backstop. It's the, it's the one thing I wouldn't want any counterparty risk on because it inherently doesn't. So for me, personally, I've heard of them, but I wouldn't even seriously look into it simply because of the way I view my gold that I have.

[B]

And I view it the same way. I mean, why take the risk? For a couple, 3% per year, you got the risk and the goal's not in your possession, and maybe it never will be. So, yeah, it can work out great, but maybe not. So count me out. Yeah, or, or like, who is it? Louis V. Mayer said, include me out.

[A]

Include me out. All right, next one is. Yeah, that's an interesting one. At what point can an economy be called a war economy? And if an economy switches to it, what scenarios are the most likely outcomes besides war? I mean, at what point or how often in history Cold War and whatever else, did a spending of a lot of resources for war not lead to war? And if not, is it even possible to switch back to a soft landing when debt and a lot of resources are wasted for it? Or is the most likely alternative a system collapse?

[B]

Yeah, well, that's actually a very good question because, you know, humans just take war. And the more you prepare for war, your neighbors wonder what's going on here and how it's going to affect them. So maybe they should prepare, too. And one thing leads to another and it's never good. So war economy, bad thing. And like, I think. Who was it Sterner said about 120 years ago, he said war is the health of the state. And since states all around the world have gotten much bigger in the last century, I expect that the wars are going to be much bigger too. And. But now they're not so much wars that, you know, move large masses of men around, just killing each other in armies, basically. But, you know, since World War II, it's all about destroying cities and, and atomic, biological, chemical, and now cybernetic and space weapons. Yeah, we can count on war. And it's not a cause for optimism.

[A]

No, but would, would, I mean, is it the natural state of the state to be in a war economy in your, in your mind?

[B]

Yes, it is, because the state produces nothing. And historically the best way to get stuff you wanted was to steal it from other people. I mean, it wasn't about production in pre industrial times. It was about stealing stuff that took a long time to build. Slaves and gold and cattle and artwork. So that stuff is easy to steal. So war was a quick way to get it. Yeah. But now on the other hand, war, it's all about production. And if you start a war, I mean, if you conquer. Let's suppose you conquered. What's a high tech country that just produces. Well, Singapore. If you had a war and you destroyed Singapore, you're not going to have anything. I mean, there won't be anything to steal. That'll all be destroyed and the technology will be destroyed and people that are doing it and try to get the hell out of Dodge. So war is not as productive as it used to be, but it's more inevitable because people in governments still think like those kind of people always thought, I don't know.

[A]

Well, does it use a high tech example? But maybe use Venezuela as an example though.

[B]

Yeah. Why is Trump picking on them? It's not because they're in the drug business. They're actually notoriously not certainly compared to their neighbor Columbia, who are bff, or used to be until a short while ago, and a lot of other countries in South America that are cranking out cocaine and that. So is it the oil? I mean, probably. I mean, Trump is. God, he's such a dim bulb. I mean, starting a war and you can't predict what's going to happen in a war. He's hoping he'll just kick in the rotten door of the Venezuela government and, and everything will be fine.

[A]

Then we'll be greeted as liberators.

[B]

Yeah, well, they always like to think that, don't they? And then American corporations will go down there and make lots of money and you know, then the US Government, he'll be a hero. Well, maybe it'll work out that way. Maybe and maybe not.

[A]

Yeah, I don't think so. But I think the motivation, it's either some larger geopolitical thing that I don't quite understand that has to do with its sphere of influence in Latin America, even with, in the Caribbean, with Cuba and Colombia and Maybe Mexico too. Maybe it's something larger in there that I can't quite put together yet. Or it's because he is a person we dis a, A, a leader who we disprove of, who is sitting, happens to be sitting on the largest known reserve of oil.

[B]

But you know, but that's not a reason to kill fast moving boats that are moving north in the Caribbean that present no threat. You have no idea who those people are or anything about them. You can't just use the U.S. military to, I mean to me it's incredible that nobody's in the streets protesting small scale mass murder.

[A]

I think it's because, you know, the, the biggest thing is it's all about creating the predicate or whatever for whatever actions are going to take. And so setting up this drug war idea which is completely false, you know, around at least Maduro's involvement. And it's like the, he's like the kingpin and that, you know, the Mexican cartels actually are somehow subordinate to him. I mean it's just totally absurd actually. But like Americans go, oh, that's a good story. Obviously drugs are, you know, fentanyl is bad, Fentanyl bad. So then. But that person is connected to it sort of vaguely, maybe not really big. There's kind of something maybe there so that it's good, we should go get that guy. And people just go, okay, yeah, so I think it's just all about the pretext.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. I mean morality has been purged from the, or ethics or any sense of right and wrong has been purged from the American political system totally domestically and internationally. It's quite disturbing actually.

[A]

Well, I wish it just weren't the political system. I think it's among the populace, unfortunately, which is why we get it.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, that's right. Yeah. Well, all right. I don't spend enough time in the US anymore to, I mean, I've limited my risk to three months a year. So.

[A]

All right, so let's see, next question is, is Uruguay still a little backward as you have once described in a video? And even not that long ago you described it that way within the last couple years for sure. So first of all, what do you mean by backward? And then is it still backward in your mind?

[B]

Well, I first came to Uruguay, I think it was 1980, and I came across the river from Argentina. And at that time I described Argentina as being like going back to the 1950s, a prosperous 1950s in the case of Argentina, but it was still a step back in time. And then When I crossed across to Uruguay, I thought I was going back to the 1930s was like a black and white movie. The cars were all even in 1980. They were 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years old. Unbelievable. There were bake light dial up telephones, rotary type, and not many of them. And the road between Montevideo and Punta del Este was a two lane blacktop. That was it. And the place was just really backwards. Now it's transformed incredibly since then, but still kind of culturally still back. Look, Uruguay, it's like Kansas on the ocean with a resort punta attached to it. And it's changing pretty rapidly. But yeah, it's. But listen, backward, which means mostly quiet now, I think it's pretty good. So.

[A]

Yeah, and I. And I also think that your definition of backwards is really important. You really mean like backwards in time and. Yeah, right. And so in some ways, although they.

[B]

Were an early adopter of being a big backward, because along with Sweden, they were the first official socialist country in the world in what, 1902 or something. They made that their national mandate. And it's not a socialist state now, it's a welfare state. So that's back.

[A]

Well, I mean, you had a. If I. I was reading a book someone gave me and apparently Che Guevara came here at one point, you know, early in the revolution and he's like, revolutionary action is not possible in Uruguay.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Because there was already. There wasn't enough grievance there or whatever to like even fomentes, like it's already, you know, we already got what we want, so it's not possible here, so.

[B]

Yeah, that's right. I mean, the average guy. Listen, it's hard to find an ambitious Uruguayan. I mean, it's strange, I. The water here is pretty good, but it must be something in the water. There's not a lot of ambition in this country or that country. I'm in Argentina right now.

[A]

Yeah, it's. Yeah. And I think there's a lot of. I have some hypothesis about why that is, you know, why you don't see that. And I think a lot of it is similar to what you see with like tall poppy syndrome in New Zealand, you know, where because it's such a small population and people seem to be basically about one remove from each other, everybody kind of knows everybody that like, in that environment, if you do something really different, everyone, you know, is gonna. It's like, I could not have started my entrepreneur career in my hometown, you know, because everybody would have been like, who do you think you are? You know, why? Like you know, it wouldn't have worked, but I could. In the US you can go somewhere else and it doesn't really matter. And you know, and if you fail, you know, you don't get the. It's not like you would be reminded of it every day for the rest of your life, which you would here, I think if you start a business and failed. So I think that's a lot of it. But. But yeah. So it's backward in time in other ways. I mean, when we decided to come down here during COVID it was be. That backwardness in time was a hugely appealing factor, you know, because who I like to. Who wouldn't want to go back in time, even just 20 years, I mean, was, you know, was the quality of life generally better 20 years ago? I'd say it was, you know, in most respects. So anyway.

[B]

Yeah. Still back. And the nice thing about being a foreign transplant down here is that you're part of the society because you look like everybody else and so forth, but you're a foreigner. So you can do things that. It's okay. Listen, it's foreigner. I mean they have these different attitudes. Fine. But. Yeah. Quirks. It's okay. But it's nice to be acknowledged for having courts and nobody really penalizes you for it.

[A]

Yeah, that's right. And.

[B]

And there's gonna be lots more foreigners because I. I'm still convinced that Oracle. That Europe is going to be exiting smart people in Europe and this is one of the places they're going to wind up.

[A]

I agree with you and I have to show you. Doug, you don't know this yet, but I got my citizenship and passport last week.

[B]

Oh, congratulations. That's great. Thank you. That's super.

[A]

So now Doug and I are both Uruguayan citizens.

[B]

Yeah. And maybe if. If after they. Since the residency requirements have been heightened in Argentina. Still two years. But you gotta physically be here for two years. You can't be gone half of the year, basically. So. But maybe Malay is going to change the rules somehow. So maybe just investing a half a million dollars in real estate will get you an Argentine passport. Might as well get one of those too. Why not?

[A]

Yeah, exactly. Let's see. This is just a comment. It said, matt and Doug, I just returned from your Uruguay Plan B conference. So this actually comment comes from. Or this question or comment comes from. About a month ago. I've been around the world in the last 15 years looking for it. The perfect place I could call home. He said, this is it. I'm moving to Uruguay in February he said you and your team did an outstanding job hitting all the key points. Thank you.

[B]

That's nice.

[A]

Satisfied customer from our conference.

[B]

That's super. And welcome aboard. It's nice to have somebody else to hang out with down here. Although I don't hang out with anybody.

[A]

No, we do though. We do a monthly thing.

[B]

Typically you're much more social than I am. It's true.

[A]

It's only because of Jane. She organized everything, makes it possible. So last thing is, when considering Plan B destinations, are there any in Europe that you think are noteworthy and if so, why?

[B]

Yeah, I can't think of any actually. I mean, Europe's got a multi thousand year history of fighting with each other and that's not going to change that. I can see. So. No, I can't. In fact, Portugal, this is, this is so disappointing. Portugal has been a major beneficiary of, you know, people looking for a Plan B and they were selling something they called a golden passport, $500,000 which basically guaranteed you citizenship after five years. Well, they just withdrew the program and rug pulled everybody that was in it, even if there were a couple months from citizenship.

[A]

So.

[B]

It'S too bad. These governments, I mean, no guarantees, they're all unpredictable.

[A]

I can't say I'm intimately familiar with any European nation, although I've been to many. But I think I got a, I got a better understanding of like historical grievance when we were in Azerbaijan. And you know, that exists in a lot of places around the fringes in Europe. Yeah, and that's, that's not like, that's not a stable system, you know.

[B]

No, and even like, listen, and most of these European countries, they've been around as nation states as long as any nation states have been there, but you still got the Catalans and the Basques that really don't want to be part of Spain, which is understandable. And in Germany, people forget that Germany didn't exist, was an ethnic area, but it didn't exist as a country before 1870. One was all principalities and duchies and baronets. Same with Italy in what, 18 Garibaldi? 1850 or something like that. It was the same thing in Italy. Same thing in most of these countries. I think, I think it's going to break up. Certainly the EU is going to fall apart. Hopefully NATO falls apart first before they start a war with Russia, which of course they're plumping to do. I mean, these criminals that are running the EU really want a war with Russia and are building their, trying to rebuild their armies and reinstall conscription and I mean, you've got crazy people running that. And they're all bankrupt. All these countries, they're all.

[A]

This is a, this is a perfect example of health of the state, you know, being war. I mean, it's like they're pushing this direction to be, to make the state more survive what it's going to experience economically.

[B]

And if you don't get a foreign war, you might get a civil war with all the aliens that they're importing that really are just there to freeload and make trouble. And much of the Europeans will get tired of that and there'll be violence. So, no, I, I, I can't, I, I'm not crazy about Europe, frankly. In fact. And free speech is really on its deathbed, at least. Well, certainly in Germany and England. I mean, it's pathological. Thousands, thousands of people are being prosecuted in England.

[A]

Put in jail and put in jail.

[B]

Exactly. This is, you know, not as widely reported. And this country is, it should be.

[A]

Well, I gotta bet the Europeans, Europeans would prefer it to be less reported. And if they can do anything about it, they will do it.

[B]

That's the crazy thing, sinking ship. Too bad Western civilization was so nice while it lasted.

[A]

All right, well, that's all the questions I've got for today, Doug. Thank you very much. And we will be back not next Wednesday, but next Friday with more.

[B]

Good. And we might have a, a guest to.

[A]

Yeah, hopefully, hopefully we can secure that. So. All right, well, thanks, Doug. Enjoy your weekend. Talk to you soon.

[B]

Thanks, Matt. You too.