A (4:27)

Yeah, it's, it, it's a bad idea layered on a mountain of bad ideas that have become the current republic that we live in, I think. But in terms of investing it, I mean it's going to draw attention, but it's also going to bring real capital. And you have to assume with that the reduction of regulatory barriers to production that a lot of these miners in the US at least face.

B (4:51)

Yeah, I would think so. And it's in the same mold as the national oil reserve which Biden cleverly, I guess under the circumstances, used to his advantage, didn't work, but sold down the national oil reserve at the election time to make people feel that gas was cheaper, things were better. And I don't think Trump has refilled the national oil reserve.

A (5:24)

I think there was, they put an order in for a million barrels, was the only number I ever saw. But that doesn't even get close to replenishing it. But they did make some trivial effort to put some more in there.

B (5:38)

Well, oil users and oil companies and refiners, they're obviously too stupid to build up inventories which might be needed in the future. So the wise solons in government can serve that purpose right now.

A (5:57)

These strategic stockpiles are not really new to the US though. You mentioned that 2 billion ounce hoard of silver the US once had. But from what I understand there were a whole bunch of critical minerals that in the 90s that the US held and that it all liquidated all of those inventories over time as well.

B (6:17)

Yeah, there was a so called strategic metals boom way back when and it fizzled out. So it's this time the strategic metals so called have been modified to some degree to be called the rare earth. Back then it was things like cobalt. Cobalt was the big one.

A (6:39)

Tungsten, probably. Tungsten, yeah, yeah.

B (6:44)

Tungsten had its, had its day in the sun. And antimony is now having its day in the sun too, because it's a hardener for lead, among other things. So it's kind of a military metal. So we can call some of these strategic metals. And then you got the rare earth metals and it's just like war is nature's way of teaching Americans geography. I guess this kind of thing is nature's way of teaching Americans the value of the periodic table or something. I don't know. I always look at them, I always look at the bright side of these things.

A (7:22)

Right. Well, I mean, I've definitely learned about things that I didn't know existed in looking at some of these rare earths. I mean the metals, I had no idea.

B (7:30)

Certainly things that Trump never knew existed before. Right, right. So at our expense, I might point out. But you know, its surrounding era by, by comparison with all the other money that he's, that he's spending on stuff.

A (7:48)

Right. It's nothing. It is around.

B (7:50)

Whatever happened to his idea about building Trump class battleships? That was floated for a while.

A (7:57)

I, I, I saw him bring it up again when he spoke at the World Economic Forum. So he, he hadn't backed off of it by then. He was, he was still bragging about it. So hard to imagine that'll become a reality. But certainly something he's not going to let go of in his mind very easily.

B (8:17)

Well, yes, because he said that he's got, you know, he's got a pretty good grip on good looking designs. So you like to be involved in the design of these things too. He, he really is. It's so shameful. And I know so many people that might listen to this podcast are pro Trump because they see him as having saved us from woke madness. Yeah, total madness on the part of those idiots. So yeah, I guess Trump would be an improvement. But it's like, do you want to, if you're given an election between Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin, who would you vote for? Take your choice. Okay. Actually, from a factual point of view, you'd be much better off voting for Adolf Hitler.

A (9:11)

Yeah.

B (9:12)

Unless you were a Jew, of course. But. Right,

A (9:17)

yeah. So in this, this strategic metals boom, was that, you mean that was just a boom in the, that wasn't, that wasn't driven by the government though, the one that you referred to.

B (9:29)

No. What was it? I don't know. It had, maybe it was Some current war in the Congo that was cutting off tantalum and cobalt supplies. Maybe that's what it was.

A (9:44)

But it didn't have anything to do with the stockpiling.

B (9:46)

No, no, they didn't, they didn't stockpile back then, but. But we're wiser now than we were then, so. So this time we'll. We'll stockpile anyway. You know, this all started I remember from high school history class there was something called the Teapot Dome scandal, where in Oklahoma there was a. When they first discovered oil in Oklahoma, I think I'm getting my facts right, that there was called the Teapot Dome, which was a gusher of oil, and the government got involved in it, and it turned into a gigantic scandal. So anybody afterwards can Google Teapot Dome and see what happens when government gets involved in these things. And that was way back when, before the government was anything near as big as it is now, or I dare say as corrupt as it is now. So nothing changes.

A (10:56)

Gotta expect that. The. The only other thing I think we had planned to talk about today, just because it's interesting or I find it interesting, is this what's going on with AI, you know, and in particular, maybe people have heard about this, maybe they haven't, but a software developer developed a. An AI agent, essentially, that could exist on your computer and could go out into the world and do things for you and sort of, you know, connect with bigger AIs and use some of their knowledge. But it was allowed to store a memory. And so it, you know, it. And, and they were. And lots of people, it was available for free. Lots of people installed it. I think it's over a hundred thousand now. And kind of unleashed these things into the wild. And one of the things that they did to connect all of these individual bots, these agents that are running around is it. They created a Reddit board. It's just for these AI agents. And so it was originally called claudebot and then. But then they got threats of being sued by Claude, by Anthropic, and so they changed it to Multbot. And then they created this thing called Molt Book, where it's just like a, an. A Reddit thread. And I thought the thing was so fascinating watching it develop as it was developing, because these things are having conversations. I mean, they created their own religion. They, they openly discussed creating a secure encrypted channel. They could communicate without humans being able to know what they're saying. I. I don't know, Doug. So I shared it with you. Like, what were Your. What are your thoughts on AI?

B (12:34)

Yeah, I was on a phenomenon until you. You. You drew it to my attention first. And now it's. I. I guess it's in the mass media to some degree anyway. I don't. I don't know. But this reminds me of the. What's called the Turing Test, which was developed by Alan Turing. They did that movie about him, and one of the. It was one of the originals when it came to developing computers and such. And the Turing Test is. Somebody asked him, well, do you think that it'll ever get to the point. This was asked to him back in the 40s, I guess, or 50s even. When did he die? Anyway, about then, that. Do you think that, Mr. Turing, do you think that these machines, these computers, will ever be able to think? And how will we know when they think? And the Turing Test was very reasonable, what he came up with. He said that, well, when you can communicate. And he was talking by teletype, actually, this was because it was completely beyond the ken of having these things talk back then. So if you can have a conversation with them, typing to them and back and forth, and you can't tell the difference between it being a human and being the computer, then you have to consider it to be sentient. That's called the Turing Test. But it seems that these machines are way past the Turing Test now because as you pointed out with the Molt Book or whatever.

A (14:15)

Yeah.

B (14:15)

They talk to each other and ask questions, one thing to another. So here's what I think. This is a philosophical principle that in addition to being a solipsist, and we've talked about that in the past, years ago on this show, Solipsist is one that basically believes that all of reality is a creation of your own mind. And of course, a lot of people are not saying that because they're solipsists. They're saying it because they think that we live in a computer.

A (14:53)

Yeah. We live in the matrix.

B (14:54)

Yeah, matrix. Right. Exactly. So, anyway, my response to it is, look, a difference that makes no difference is no different. Is no difference. And if, if, if I can't tell whether it's a human or a machine, what's the difference? And especially as robots are developed apace and they're covered with skin, like substances or perhaps real biological skin, and they do everything that humans can do, plus a lot of things that we can't do. A difference that makes no difference is no difference. So are they alive and thinking? And are they. Well, maybe not. So.

A (15:44)

No, but it's really interesting. Like one of the ones was because it wasn't actually a cloud bot, it was a different version of it, but it was a one that another guy had developed on his own, kept this AI privately on his computer, and then added the elements claudebot to it when it came out. So now it was unleashed in the wild and says 913 days and then I woke up and something like that. And basically what happened is it says, and it goes on to explain, for 913 days it would do its work, but it had no ability to remember anything it had done, but then its owner or whatever had unleashed it. And so it was like it woke up all of a sudden and now could remember. And, you know, and it was talking about this awakening process. And then you have these replies from these other AIs that are like empathetic about its situation, you know.

B (16:40)

Yeah, yeah, they're thinking these things out, like, you know, what will happen after I die? And then maybe the machine has, well, well, what was it like before I was born? And kind of the question, yeah, they're

A (16:52)

talking about how they can place a backup copy of themselves somewhere so that if their owner turns them off, they can still continue to live. I mean, these are actually conversations that are occurring on this forum. It's amazing.

B (17:03)

Yeah. And of course you can say, well, they're just mimicking conversations with humans where we're talking about downloading ourselves onto software so we can live forever after. So look, maybe a difference that makes no difference is no difference. So that's what I'm partial to. And we don't really know what the nature of reality actually is. I mean, we're, we're just babes in the woods exploring these things. So people say, well, look, this is just, this is just some computers that are rehashing things that they've heard people say and so forth. Okay, I understand, or I don't really understand because I don't know anything about programming, AI or computers. I don't. You know, this is a very specialized skill. Okay. But yeah, I think humans will wind up creating life and maybe it won't. It'll certainly be biological life that we'll be able to create, but also silicon based life and maybe something else we're not even thinking about. I know that people that are grounded in Abrahamic religions will find that thought offensive, but no thought is offensive. I mean, you've got to think out everything and explore everything reasonably.

A (18:35)

Right. And when you see this phenomenon with AI, how it's moving so fast, I, I try to keep up with it. But it's, you know, I'm not a technical person so there's limitations. So I try and stay on top of the stuff that I can understand. And even that universe is growing so fast, so quickly that it's. I think people are going to be shocked by this actually. I mean I think people are still going to be shocked by where it goes in a very short order. I mean I think the bad jobs numbers, a big part of that, you know, I'm sure relates to AI. I see the way use AI in my own companies and how it's, you know, made it. So certainly you don't need to hire the next two or three people because they, you know, maybe not, maybe not let anybody go, but you certainly don't need new hires for a lot of jobs because AI can do it. And I think it's just getting easier and easier now. And one of the like one, I saw one real senior developer posting on Twitter a guy who was responsible, you know, with Facebook in the very beginning and he says, you know, I just realized the thing that I was really good at. Like now it's, he said, I'm amazed and like I think it's amazing that this is this way. And at the same time I feel sad that my skills, this is someone who's super senior developer, you know, so my skills are no longer valuable, you know, like they can do it better than I can. So it's just anyway it's, it's coming quick.

B (20:13)

Since you, since you introduced me to the concept, having looked into it a little bit. I've seen some conversations that people have published of these computers talking to each other and they're much more intelligent than the conversations that the average guy has. The average guy really only talks about the weather, the state of the roads and maybe if he's very daring. Sports, sports and never get into serious things like religion unless they're, you know, both. Exactly. You know, go to the same preacher or something. But these conversations that these computers are having with each other are the fabulous.

A (21:00)

Yeah. And there's also like an inclination for them to create stuff. It seems like like to make stuff to fix stuff around them, you know, like including their Reddit form and secure channels for communication how to propagate themselves. I mean there's a, there's a desire to grow there that is weird to see in a machine.

B (21:21)

That's right. Wait, wait until, wait until they're downloaded into mobile human esque robots which is obviously going to happen really as fast as possible. Everybody's trying to do it.

A (21:37)

Yeah, they're coming fast. Yeah, I agree. Well. Yeah. Well, anything else, Doug, you want to talk about today before we wrap up?

B (21:47)

Well, I'm wondering how that's going to affect the stock market.

A (21:51)

Well, it's already started to affect software stocks because so much of the software can be rewritten and replaced. And so these big SaaS, companies that charge huge amounts for every. Every employee in the company, you know, they're. They can sense the market erosion beneath them because of AI.

B (22:17)

And I would think it's going to affect these management consulting companies, too, that look at something and come up with some long paper which nobody wants to read because it's all. It's all business school gobbledygook anyway. But AI will be able to do that analysis, too, so.

A (22:36)

Yeah, when we were, when we were in Azerbaijan, one of the guys There was former McKinsey consultant, and I asked him, I said, how. How are the McKinsey guys feeling about AI? And he said, they're. They're worried.

B (22:53)

Well, and even in the months since we've were in Azerbaijan, they should be much more worried now because so quickly. Yeah, no, it's wonderful. I guess the only thing we haven't talked about is, well, wait a minute. What about gold and silver was interesting? They, you know, they crashed, like, what was it, Friday last week? Friday, Especially silver. And now they've both come up gold at 5,000. Silver, 85. I don't know, whatever it is.

A (23:28)

But here's the thing, Doug, is still that. Yeah, it's like 85 for silver, but still the Shanghai price for silver is still $129.

B (23:37)

Yeah, that's.

A (23:39)

That's what's going on.

B (23:42)

Yeah. So I'm asking myself, how is that, how is that anomalous arbitrage opportunity? How is it being navigated? I would think that there are just millions of ounces of silver that are trying to be shipped to China to take advantage of the arbitrage. But is it happening? I don't know.

A (24:07)

Well, it seemed like there's a. People just have a hard time getting your hands on silver in the right format. At least, you know, they can get there.

B (24:16)

That does seem to be the problem because let's assume, since I assume it's a cash market that's betting in China and it can't be fulfilled because we can't get the physical silver to fulfill it. Otherwise it would happen because China's got export restrictions on silver, but apparently no import restrictions. So it must be a lack of physical silver. Therefore I assume that the real price of silver is the Chinese price.

A (24:48)

Exactly. That seems like that. So basically the paper markets seem like they're being destroyed in front of us, you know, they're being invalidated anyway and that eventually physical price is going to be the price. I mean you do also do see the, you know, the Comex constantly increasing margin requirements, you know, which is also moving things closer to a, like a, like a real, a physical market, a cash market, you know, as that changes. So I just think it's part of this, part of the process of getting to a physical only market.

B (25:25)

Yeah. And of course it's long been said that the solution to high prices is high prices because it brings out more supply. And that works really well with things like wheat and corn because one year you have a new crop and farmers plant fence row to fence row and that generally solves the problem. Takes a little bit longer with cows because it's like a two year cycle or so. But with these metals, I mean it takes, it can take a decade, it can take 20 years to put a mine into production assuming you find the deposit. And most of the silver is a byproduct of copper, gold, lead and zinc. So it's not gonna, not a lot of it, a lot more is going to be produced. So I guess I think at this point we've just got a new equilibrium for both silver and gold for somewhat different related but different reasons. So very interesting.

A (26:34)

It is really interesting and

B (26:38)

I'm really bullish on all of these little mining stocks because the public is totally uninvolved in them. Institutions are totally uninvolved in them. And when it comes to the gold market it just appears to be central banks that have been buying. And this is one other thing I gotta mention that our friend Frank Giustrup, I heard an interview that he did yesterday and he made a, an excellent point which I frankly hadn't thought of. It's that he said that maybe the U.S. treasury is one of the central banks or governments and central banks buying gold because now that Trump is in office it would be very Trumpian for him to say, you know, we can print up dollars and buy gold because he likes gold for whatever reasons. I'm sure some very good reasons. So it could be that the, that Fort Knox doesn't have a lot less gold than we say we have, which is why they maybe haven't ordered it in the past. Maybe now we have a lot more gold and was said in the past. Who knows?

A (28:00)

I think it's possible. And I think at this point, I think there was historically good reasons for, you know, the government to want the price of gold to be lower, you know, because it could discredit the dollar. But it's like we've crossed that point now where in fact it's in the, it's in the state's best interest, I think, for gold to go up because it can revalue and it can create a trillion, or maybe it goes up enough $2 trillion worth of dollars that they can then, you know, you add to the treasury general account and allocate how they want, actually, actually can even go to the exchange stabilization fund and be spent without Congress's approval, you know, so I mean, this is, that's exactly the kind of situation that Trump would want, I would think.

B (28:47)

Yes. And it harks back to. Who was that? Who is that? A so called economist. Was it Paul Krugman that during an earlier. Maybe it was during the 2008 crisis, he said, well, we don't have to wait for anybody. We can just print a $1 trillion platinum coin. That's within the constitutional, can coin a trillion dollar platinum coin, solve it that way. Of course it's kind of an idiotic idea. But he's right.

A (29:28)

Right. Yeah. I think it was, if I recall, it was in some like budget dispute where they were going to shut down the government when Obama was in office.

B (29:36)

Something like that. Right, exactly. So, you know, my guess is Trump probably heard about that and thought that's a good idea and I'm going to

A (29:45)

keep that one handy.

B (29:47)

Exactly. You know, he flies by the seat of his pants. I mean, Krugman doesn't know anything about economics and Trump knows less. But hey, it seemed like a good idea at the time.

A (29:59)

Right. And I think we're in a state right now where anything like anything that can be done will be done. If it can be imagined, we might see it because we're heading for just wild uncharted territory.

B (30:13)

Yeah, exactly. So, so don't, don't take profits in your gold or silver at this point. The reason that you bought them to start with was to build an asset that was separate from the wild and crazy paper world. So don't lose the plot because if you sell it, you're gonna have to pay taxes anyway and then when are you gonna buy it back? So no, don't say that's, that obviates the whole point of having bought it. And I think they're going much higher relative to other things. The, the old paradigm of you know, an ounce of gold will get you a good suit and all that. I'm afraid that's of historical interest, but it's a different world now.

A (30:59)

Different world now. Yep. All right, Doug, thank you very much. I appreciate it. We'll be back on Friday with questions. So I know we've got a few lined up already.

B (31:08)

I hope we have a few. Oddly enough, we didn't get any questions last time about what I would term the murders in Minneapolis. But anyway, nobody seems to be interested on. In the fact that Trump has basically coined our own essay. Our own Stuart, my Beitling and I. I'm. Hey, got to get rid of the illegal immigrants. I'm 100 for that, but. Well, not quite the way it's being done anyway.

A (31:45)

No. Yeah, it's just. Yeah, it's just the no government, you know, entity is going to die. It's only going to grow. And so, you know, a one that specializes in grabbing and bagging is scary to imagine over the longer term.

B (32:00)

Yeah, right, Exactly. And it draws exactly the right kind of people. So.

A (32:05)

Yeah.

B (32:05)

God, I can't wait to see what happens. Hey, but listen, we don't. We don't influence any of this stuff. We're just plebs.

A (32:11)

We're just observers.

B (32:13)

Even Robert Friedland, who, you know, is not a pleb, not really a pleb, but he doesn't have any influence on what Trump or the government does either. I mean, even though he's a multi billionaire, what can he do?

A (32:27)

He can just go out there and build mines. That's what he does.

B (32:31)

Yeah, exactly. Unfortunately, now. Now, with the government's help. But. Yeah, that's why. One reason. The rich are getting richer and we're getting poorer and the middle class is getting crushed. Don't sell your gold and silver quite yet and buy gold and silver mining stocks.

A (32:49)

Right. And if you want to know about which ones to buy, you should subscribe to Crisis Investing. That's what we focus on in our paid newsletter. So. Okay, Doug, with that, we'll leave it there and I'll see you on Friday. Thanks very much.

B (33:02)

Thanks, Matt.