This Is What A Crisis Looks Like!!

Summary

Doug Casey's Take – “This Is What a Crisis Looks Like!!”

Release Date: March 4, 2026
Host: Matthew Smith
Guest: Doug Casey (author, investor, libertarian philosopher)

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Episode Overview

In this timely and provocative episode, Matthew Smith and Doug Casey dissect the consequences and underlying rationales behind the U.S. invasion of Iran, which has recently escalated into a full-blown regional conflict. Drawing from Casey's decades of experience in crisis investing and history of candid political commentary, the discussion explores the military, economic, and psychological aspects of the crisis and how both governments and populations misjudge, mismanage, and fail to recognize the gravity of such pivotal moments.

The hosts also address broader implications—domestically and globally—with sharp skepticism toward mainstream narratives, the motivations of leaders, and the herd mentality of societies during times of crisis.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The U.S. Invasion of Iran: Initial Reactions and Global Stakes

• Immediate Reaction:

  • Doug expresses deep concern and dismay, calling the invasion “very, very bad and very, very dangerous.” (00:15)
  • He underscores the unpredictability of outcomes due to the volatile region and shifting political motives.

• Escalation & Risks:

  • The destruction of U.S. Fifth Fleet facilities in Bahrain heightens the risk of prolonged engagement. The hosts agree that Trump declaring victory and leaving would have been the “best outcome possible,” which now seems increasingly unlikely. (01:07-01:34)

• Widespread U.S. Military Presence:

  • Discussion about the staggering number of U.S. bases worldwide—over 800—and their varying definitions. (02:03)

Quote:

“What are they doing putting their country in the middle of all of our bases?”
— Doug Casey (01:34)

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2. The Nature of Information and Propaganda

• Reliability of War Information:

  • Doug doubts the veracity of most information received, believing “everything coming out of that theater of war” is unreliable and often propaganda. (03:19)

• Military Economics:

  • Asymmetric warfare: The U.S. uses extremely expensive, high-tech weaponry to counter cheap Iranian drones, which is “a good way to lose a war by spending a lot more money than the enemy does.” (05:20)

Quote:

“To shoot down a cheap Iranian drone, it probably takes a three million dollar missile to shoot it down... War boils down to economics.”
— Doug Casey (05:20)

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3. U.S. Rationales for War and Historical Grievances

• Skepticism Toward Official Justifications:

  • Doug reviews justifications for U.S. involvement, from Iran’s nuclear program to regional alliances, but dismisses all as “none of our business.” (06:58)
  • He draws parallels with how the U.S. supports Israel and Egypt financially to maintain regional stability, questioning why these entanglements exist.

• Religious and Ethnic Tensions:

  • Doug analyzes the Abrahamic religions’ inability to coexist, suggesting theological differences fuel conflict and make Middle East peace unlikely. (11:27)

Quote:

“The U.S. has turned itself into Israel’s bitch, where we give them... $4 billion a year. Why are we giving Israel $4 billion a year for?”
— Doug Casey (07:46)

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4. Unraveling Escalation: Messianic Mindsets and Military Psychology

• End-Times Eschatology:
  • The conversation touches on how certain religious groups within U.S. politics and the military (especially the Air Force) see the conflict in eschatological terms—actively rooting for “end times.” (14:03)
  • This cultural “imminentizing of the eschaton” amplifies the risk of apocalyptic decision-making. (14:03-14:45)

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5. On-the-Ground Developments & Media Manipulation

• Iranian Response and Civilian Involvement:

  • Detailed account of Iranian strikes targeting hotels in Dubai where U.S. military personnel had relocated.
  • Acknowledgement of both real and AI-generated misinformation circulating online complicating public understanding. (15:24-17:27)

• Negotiation Undermined by Surprise Attacks:

  • Doug finds the U.S. attack during negotiations “shameful,” labeling it “dishonorable and cowardly,” especially because it resembles a Pearl Harbor-like betrayal. (18:29)

Quote:

“It really is shameful when you actually have active negotiations to launch a surprise attack at that time. It impresses me as dishonorable and cowardly.”
— Doug Casey (18:29)

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6. Unpredictability, Escalation, and American Leadership

• Trump’s Leadership:

  • Casey is fiercely critical of Trump, calling him a “dyed-in-the-wool narcissist” and “enthusiastic liar,” warning that his unpredictability makes any negotiation futile. (19:25, 23:13)
  • Argues such reckless leadership opens a “Pandora’s box” that can’t be closed. (20:58)

• Global Economic Impact:

  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects not just oil but global fertilizer and food supply chains, raising costs worldwide—a point many Americans ignore by assuming domestic energy independence. (24:09-25:19)
  • Doug calls Trump’s offer to insure ships through the Strait “naive,” highlighting the military danger of protecting such convoys. (25:19-26:36)

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7. Chain Reactions and Unintended Consequences

• Potential for Global Expansion:

  • This war risks drawing in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf states, with further incidents (like missile attacks, data center outages, and accusations of sabotage) rapidly escalating the regional conflict. (30:07-30:48, 31:46)
  • Casey suspects possible Israeli operations are stoking intra-Arab conflict to further destabilize the region.

• Information Fog and Conflicting Narratives:

  • The conversation highlights confusion around the downing of U.S. aircraft (Kuwaiti vs. American pilots, Iranian claims) and the manipulated casualty figures. (32:00-34:03)

Quote:

“Are the Keystone Cops fighting this war?”
— Doug Casey (32:47)

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8. Financial Markets & Crisis Investing

• Market Response:

  • Despite the spiraling crisis, the more speculative parts of the market (e.g., gold, specialty stocks) are seeing appreciation rather than panic.
  • Doug touts his crisis investing portfolio, advocating gold, silver, and select oil stocks outside the Middle East as the best bets. (37:49-40:52)

• Insulation from Market Collapse:

  • He notes that mining stocks are still “rounding errors” in most portfolios, implying significant upside potential as crisis spreads.

Quote:

“Something’s happening and I feel fine. I guess I do.”
— Doug Casey, on gold and crisis stocks outperforming (39:40)

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9. Recognizing a Crisis: Human Blind Spots & “Normalcy Bias”

• Inability to Recognize, Let Alone Prepare:
  • Both hosts argue most people can’t see or acknowledge crises unless a culturally significant event occurs (e.g., 9/11, COVID sports cancellations). (41:27, 43:13, 46:11)
  • Doug attributes this to our herd mentality and cognitive biases, referencing Americans’ compliance during COVID as evidence. (48:15)

Quote:

“Humans are herd animals... they basically do what the crowd does.”
— Doug Casey (48:15)

• Quantitative Evidence of Declining Standard of Living:
  • Examples: U.S. dollar losing half its purchasing power since 2020, average cars now 13 years old, and majority tapping retirement accounts—hallmarks of “The Greater Depression” Doug long predicted. (45:20, 45:52)

Quote:

“It’s a little bit like when a tsunami comes in… they don’t see what’s about to happen.”
— Doug Casey (43:13)

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10. War and Leadership Assassinations: New Precedents

• Assassination as New Norm:

  • Doug raises alarm that targeting foreign leaders, once taboo (e.g., Hitler, Stalin), is now openly discussed and practiced—setting a dangerous precedent of mutual vulnerability. (51:12)

• Detachment from Facts:

  • With increasing narrative control, even claims about assassination attempts are disconnected from reality or evidence. (52:25)

Quote:

“We’re way beyond that, Doug. We’re way beyond facts. He just said it. It’s narrative.”
— Matthew Smith (52:25)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The U.S. has turned itself into Israel’s bitch...” — Doug Casey (07:46)
• “It really is shameful... to launch a surprise attack at that time. It impresses me as dishonorable and cowardly.” — Doug Casey (18:29)
• “Are the Keystone cops fighting this war?” — Doug Casey (32:47)
• “Something’s happening and I feel fine. I guess I do.” — Doug Casey (39:40)
• “It’s a little bit like when a tsunami comes in... they don’t see what’s about to happen.” — Doug Casey (43:13)
• “Humans are herd animals... they basically do what the crowd does.” — Doug Casey (48:15)
• “We’re way beyond that... it’s narrative.” — Matthew Smith (52:25)
• “It was a really stupid mistake taking out Saddam, just like taking out Gaddafi.” — Doug Casey (53:06)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• U.S. Invasion Initial Reaction: 00:15–01:34
• Military Presence Discussion: 02:03–03:19
• On Propaganda and Military Economics: 03:56–05:20
• Motives for War, U.S. & Israel Relations: 06:58–11:13
• Religious/Eschatological Influence: 11:27–14:45
• Negotiation and Attack—Pearl Harbor Comparison: 18:17–19:23
• Trump’s Leadership & Unpredictability: 19:25–23:13
• Global Economic Fallout (Strait of Hormuz): 24:09–26:36
• Keystone Cops & Airpower Fog: 32:00–33:30
• Market Impact & Crisis Portfolio: 37:49–40:52
• Normalcy Bias and Recognizing Crisis: 41:27–48:37
• Leadership Assassinations & Erosion of Norms: 51:12–53:06

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Final Thoughts

• Doug’s prediction: Unless Trump reverses course and withdraws, the situation is “likely to get devolving and get worse.” (50:20)
• He fears use of nuclear weapons becomes more plausible the longer the conflict drags on.
• The episode closes with a warning: this conflict has the hallmarks of crises throughout history—escalating due to misjudgment, hubris, and the inability of most people to see the tsunami as it approaches.

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For Listeners

This episode blends sharp historical context, crisis analysis, and a healthy dose of libertarian skepticism, making its insights especially urgent for anyone seeking to understand not just the Middle Eastern crisis but the universal dynamics of political, economic, and social upheaval.

Listeners seeking more from Doug Casey are directed to his “crisis investing portfolio” and invited to submit questions for future episodes.

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Transcript

[A]

All right. Good morning, Doug. Since we last spoke, the US has invaded Iran. We thought that might happen when we spoke on Friday, and it turns out it did. What, what are your thoughts on this whole thing?

[B]

Well, this is potentially a very, very big deal. And I'm not shocked because to be expected from Trump, but I'm fairly disgusted and really disturbed. And I've got to say that I think it's going to end really badly. I mean, look, there's so many things that can change it one way towards the or the other, or Trump might fabricate a reason why. Okay, we've taught him a lesson. Oh, let's just back off. Because I'm basically a piece. Anything is possible in this scenario, but I think it's very, very bad and very, very dangerous.

[A]

Yeah. And it's like the longer it goes on, the longer it's going to go on, you know what I mean? Because like the, the chances of him saying, declaring victory and going home, it's, it's harder today after basically the Fifth Fleet's facilities have been destroyed in Bahrain, you know, that it would have been a few days ago. So. Yeah, that's like the best outcome possible. Is it? He just says, yeah, it's a little

[B]

bit like a cartoon that I saw the other day which shows a map of Iran and US Bases in the area. And the caption to it is, what are they doing putting their country in the middle of all of our bases?

[A]

Exactly.

[B]

I mean, they're asking for trouble.

[A]

Well, I think almost. There are a lot of countries in the world that can say the same thing. Right. That's what we do is we just put bases around everybody.

[B]

The number that I heard the other day, and I guess we could ask some search engine to give us an up to date number, but 873 US bases, that's foreign bases. And of course, it's a question of a definition of what constitutes a base. You know, is it a couple of guys hanging around an office, or is it something that's a squad or a platoon or a company or a battalion size? I mean, this is kind of a, a floating number. What constitutes an actual base?

[A]

Yeah, yeah, the number I heard was over 800 as well. And I was surprised at how clearly how many facilities we actually had in each of the Middle Eastern countries. You know, I knew about some of them. You'd hear about, you know, Qatar's giant air base. You know, heard about Bahrain with the Fifth Fleet there, but I just hadn't understood how. Every single one of them is pretty Dominated by US facilities and, but, and they've been picked apart little by little by Iran since this whole thing has started. Were you surprised by the Iranian response?

[B]

Well, this is where we encounter the first problem. People think they know something because they read it in the paper or a blog or something like that. But the fact is, is that we know absolutely nothing. You can plan your life around everything coming out of that theater of war as being a lie or propaganda or something that's been slanted some way. So it's all completely unreliable. I mean it's, it's conjecture, frankly. So.

[A]

Well there, we do have, we do have data points though.

[B]

Well, there's some things, I guess there are, yeah, but we just don't know how much we can believe. Like how many, I guess we know, or they've released what we think we know that the Iranians have about two dozen different types of missiles. That's a wide variety with different ranges and different capabilities. So how many do they actually have? Thousands, tens of thousands. How many drones do they have? Of what capability? We're not talking about the ones you buy in a hobby shop, but deadly

[A]

drones said tens of thousands there, but you're right. I mean, especially when it comes out of these inventories. We don't know because, and even, you know, they, there's all this talk about the US running out of inventory of Interceptors and things like that. And even those numbers, you know, I'm not, I don't know. I mean, I would think that I wouldn't be surprised if the military guys sandbag the number all the time to get bigger budgets and then, and actually there's stockpiles everywhere of this stuff, you know, actually, so that's, you know, you

[B]

know what I mean?

[A]

So I don't even know if I, I don't believe our own numbers, so let alone the Iranian numbers.

[B]

But one thing we can pretty much rely on is that our stuff is really expensive and complex and high tech. So to shoot down a cheap Iranian drone, it probably takes a three million dollar missile to shoot it down. So war boils down to economics. So how many 3 million dollar missiles can we manufacture and afford to shoot down cheap drones? I don't know, but it's a good way to lose a war by spending a lot more money than the enemy does, even if you have a lot more money, right?

[A]

And then, so you have the economic side of it and then there's the, you know, the, the war objectives and you know, we've heard a whole bunch of different rationale. I guess, for why. Why the US Is engaged in this entire thing. Do any of them make any sense to you? I mean, we have, like the. Well, we can't. We got. They have a. They developed a very sophisticated ballistics missile umbrella that allows their nuclear program to be developed. It was their nuclear program directly that was a problem. It was that this. The Israelis were going to attack, and if we didn't, you know, if. And so we had to participate in that attack or else we'd have to deal with. We'd have to just accept the response from the Iranians, you know, so there's a whole bunch of different excuses for a rationale, I should say, for why we're even involved. Are there others that you've heard or. And do any of them make any sense?

[B]

Well, a lot of people say, you know, these people have declared themselves as being our enemy since the revolution in 1979, which is a long time ago. Already they've been calling for death to America and so forth. But. When you look at this objectively, there's a lot of reasons why they have. They have to be really pissed off at the American government. Not the American people, but the American government. I mean, from overthrowing that regime of Mossadegh in 1953 for the oil to installing the Shah and then keeping the Shah there, It was a very mixed bag. I mean, look, he's like Donald Trump. There's things that you've got to like about the Shah and things that you have to despise about the Shah. But wait a minute. This is academic. It's none of our business. It's a country on the other side of the world. So, you know, we can wish them well, but they can do what they want to do. And if they don't get along well with their neighbors, that's none of our business. We can wish them both well, including Israel. But the US has turned itself into Israel's bitch, where we give them. This is what's acknowledged in the numbers. $4 billion a year. Why are we giving Israel $4 billion a year for. Is that military aid or economic aid? Oh, and Egypt gets an identical amount to make sure it remains Israel's bff. I mean, who cares? I mean, look, Israel. Israel was a bad idea. I understand the Jews think they own it and all this type of thing and the Bible and all this. I don't buy any of that stuff, quite frankly. What about the people that were there before the Jews came in and killed every man, woman, child and animal, as the Bible says, I Mean, how far back do you want to trace the chain of title and where is the chain of title exactly? I mean, I don't see any documents. I mean, who has title to this little farm? This is all ridiculous. This is worse than trying to figure out who's right and who's wrong in a battle between the hatfields and the McCoys. I don't know who is right between the Hatfields and McCoys. I don't think anybody knows. And the same is true with the Israelis. You know, they. They. And I understand why the Jews, who are very cliquish and hang together, which is one of the reasons why people have a problem with them. People have a problem with any group that hangs together at the expense of other groups. I mean, it's why people are suspicious of Mormons, for instance. They do the same thing. That's why people, among other reasons, are suspicious of Gypsies. They do the same thing. It's why people are suspicious of any national group, which is a minority, where it gets inserted. So it's not, you know, not my problem. We all have enough individual problems in our life. So the answer to the question is I wish everybody well. And I don't think it's going to end well for Israel because they're floating in a sea of 2 billion Muslims. And the Koran and the Hadith make a big deal out of the fact that the Jews are our enemies. Okay? Right. Wrong. That's what they say. That's what they believe. So it's idiocy for us to get involved in. In this thing to start with. I mean, we're talking about who. Who's going to win and should we. This is all nonsense. It's none of our business. I mean, we could pick a hundred different fights in the world to involve ourselves in, to pick a side that we know nothing about, incidentally, in any of these hundred places. But this is the biggie. I mean, we want to make Israel the hill that we die on, as it were.

[A]

Yeah, it does seem like this is the biggie because this has potential to spiral out of control and, you know, be looked back in history as, you know, the epicenter of World War iii, does it not?

[B]

Yeah. Yeah, it does. I'm afraid none of these three Abrahamic religions, Christianity, Islam and Judaism, can get along with each other very well because they say they worship the same God, but as far as I can tell from reading their. Their holy books, they don't worship the same God. Christians worship basically a God called Jesus. Well, basically. But then we have a trinity which is like three gods, but not in all Christian.

[A]

Really not in all Christian sects though, is a trinity.

[B]

Yeah, that's true. There's different, different sects. But our God is basically. What is it? Jesus and the Holy Ghost, he's a God too. And then we have the Old Testament God. He's, you know, he's there. They, they call him God, but he used to have a name, Yahweh, and that's the name of the Jews God, Yahweh. They worship him, but he looks really different from our God. He says different things. He wants you to do different things before whatever. And of course Allah is a third God and he's got an entirely different program. I don't, I don't think Allah is the same as Yahweh. Hey, listen, I've never, I've never met him, but all you know is what it says that he says in a book. And it's not what Yahweh or Jesus says. End of story.

[A]

The, the where they come together though certain is the strange eschatology of these religions. And it seems they're like certain parties of these religions are all slamming their foot on the gas pedal, trying to drive us to Armageddon, you know, with their own ends in mind. Whether that there was a, some commander apparently widely circulated among US Troops said that, you know, Trump was anointed by Jesus essentially to bring about the Second Coming. And what they're doing, it's all part of that plan. And certainly a lot of the, you know, like the Huckabees of the world certainly support that ideal and believe that's what, where we're going. And then, you know, that there's certain sects or groups in the, within Israel that, you know, are just waiting for their time to, to destroy the mosque. I'm sure it'll be hit in this process, you know, and raise the Third Temple. I mean, you know, they got the Red Heers, they did a practice of, you know, I mean, it's been done like they're, they're pushing hard for end times.

[B]

Yeah, everybody wants, seems that they want to imminentize the eschaton, as it were, and get it over with. Tired of living this valley of tears and so forth. So yeah, there's a good chance that somebody's going to push the button. And what you mentioned about the influence of messianic Christianity in the military, that's especially true in the US Air Force. The Air Force Academy is located in Colorado Springs, and Colorado Springs is as close as we can come to the Vatican of fundamental religiosity in the US

[A]

A lot of mega churches down there.

[B]

Yeah. So the Air Force guys are swimming in a pool of that stuff. And it's not far from. From. What is that. What is that mount under. Underneath the, Underneath the, You know, it's buried for.

[A]

Yeah, it's where NORAD is based.

[B]

What is that called? Anyway, it's all, it's all there in the Colorado mountains.

[A]

Right. So. Sorry, go ahead.

[B]

No, I was gonna say, I promise you, the average guy in Aspen is totally oblivious of all the stuff that's going on not so far down the road.

[A]

I, I think a lot of people are oblivious to what's happening right now, actually. But certainly those in Aspen, even more in a bubble and more removed. But, you know, I, I think, you know, ask if you were surprised by the response, and you're, you're right. We don't really know exactly what's going on. But I will say online, you know, for the first 48 hours, specifically from when this started, there was a lot of, you know, boots on the ground, information shared, videos shared. So, you know, and you could. Then there's some where that were AI fakes, and they were the most extreme ones where they'd show like, the USS Lincoln, you know, on fire and stuff like that. It was pretty obvious. But there was a good, There was surprising information there. And it was shocking to me watching as the Iranians started responding and going immediately after the other Arab countries, you know, and, you know, going after specifically military targets there. But then that transition into, you see, all of a sudden they're hitting hotels in Dubai, and I'm like, well, that's really escalating. You know, they're getting going for civilian centers in these Arab countries. But it turns out that they were actually targeting. You know, they, they, they talked about, like, getting some of the troops off the bases in the, in the Middle east in advance of this for that, the few days before the attack began. And apparently they had them evacuate some of the bases and go into the hotels. And they had a good enough intelligence to target those specific hotels and then. And the equipment to be able to deliver, you know, to those specific hotels. And so you just see this thing cascading in ways that I think really shocked the Department of War, you know, frankly, because it wasn't. It was shortly after things got started that Trump, you know, was going through Italy to try and, you know, suggests to Iran that maybe we should go back to the negotiating table, which they said no, Go to hell. And who can blame them based upon, you know, how things went down?

[B]

No, you can't blame them because I thought. I thought we were in active negotiations with Kushner and who's the other guy?

[A]

My brain's not working today.

[B]

These two real estate pros, buddies of Trump's. I'm not sure it's even a good idea that the two negotiators are both Jews. I mean, under the circumstances, probably not the best choice right now. So. But in the midst of the negotiations, we launched an attack. This is. This is equivalent to like a December 7th attack from Japan on Pearl Harbor.

[A]

At least the Japanese said negotiations are over before the attack happened. They were in active negotiations. They said they're over, and then they bombed. You know, they at least stopped them.

[B]

No, it. It really is shameful when you actually have active negotiations to launch a surprise attack and at that time. So it's. It impresses me as dishonorable and, and cowardly. You know, it's funny, it reminds me, this is. God, this must have been 20 years ago. Remember? I think it was in. In the harbor of Oman. There was a US Destroyer that was there, and a couple of jihadis drove their boat. Small boat.

[A]

Yeah, it was the USS Cole, I think.

[B]

Right, The Cole. Yes, it was. And, you know, they blew the thing up next to it. And Clinton, it was during the Clinton regime. I think he said it was cowardly. Well, you can say all kinds of nasty things about them, but cowardly. It was not, you know, it was brazen.

[A]

It was a brazen attack.

[B]

It was brazen, but it absolutely wasn't cowardly. So this shows how these people shape words to influence Bubis Americana, to show that we're always the good guys, we're always right, we're brave and heroic and so forth. But, you know, frankly, I, I listen, I think Trump is going off the deep end. I really do. I mean, it's well known. I mean, anybody can see that he's a dyed in the world narcissist. He's a megalomaniac who shamefully has said numerous times that he wants the Nobel Prize. I don't want the. No, it's just a prize that's given by a half a dozen arbitrary Scandinavians. I don't give a damn. I mean, it's crazy, but he thinks it's a big deal. He wants it. He's a narcissist. He's a megalomaniac. He's turning into a. You know, he's always been free and easy with the truth, but now he's turning into an enthusiastic liar. Listen, there are things that I like about Trump. I don't suffer from tds, but he's out of control. And I will wager that he's not going to serve out his term for any of a number of reasons at this point. He's just going too far. You can't start a war because you think it's a good idea. This is, this is crazy.

[A]

It's. It's crazy. And what you've done is, what he's done is he's opened Pandora's box and you literally can't predict what will happen next. You have a nation of people who is, whose back is against the wall and, you know, they, the prospect of being turned into Assyria or something like that is essentially what's the future, you know, is a possibility for them. They, no matter what you think of it, their spiritual leader was killed in his home, you know, right in the immediate start of the attack. That might not mean anything to you, but he might mean something to them. You know, not to. Maybe all of them, but some of them, a lot. And they killed him.

[B]

Right. A lot of people love the Pope. And, you know, Muslims take their religion much more seriously than, let's say, Roman Catholics do, I can tell you. So if you killed the poke, I mean, that's asking for trouble. Same thing here.

[A]

Same thing. And so, and so, like, that's. That, that Pandora's box has been opened. And the other thing that's been done, like, whether you, you have to look at this the way that the rest of the world might see it, part of it, and that is the, the, the strategy of negotiation and attack. Because this is a, this is a pattern. It happened with Hamas. They were negotiating with Hamas. And those, the negotiators were attacked and assassinated during the negotiation. It happened with Iran last time, last June. They're in the middle of negotiations and they're attacked and many of them assassinated in the process. So there's even, you know, even when it makes you relook at that situation with, with Putin where all, where, you know, Trump was connecting with him and then his, his home was attacked with drones at that same time. You know, it. So it, who in the, and who in the world, anywhere, whatever country, China, Russia, whoever can negotiate anything with Trump.

[B]

No, he's, he's, he's too unreliable. He's too tricky. He's too schizophrenic. You really, you really can't, you really, you really shouldn't and, and the Iranians feel like they've been unjustly punished at this point. Now, I'm not saying that the Ayatollah or anybody, Putin, I mean, listen, I don't think there are any of them are good guys, but all we hear is propaganda from our side. And anybody that gets into politics is not by definition a good guy. They're people that want to boss around other people and don't mind killing people just because they're in a position to do so. So epoxy on both their houses, but they're making it our business, making us pay for it, making us responsible for it.

[A]

Going to certainly affect the standard of living of people everywhere, because this choke point that everyone talks about, straight or Hormuz, we always think of it in terms of gas and oil, and it is incredibly significant to those markets. And so you've seen like big price increases already in Europe for gas. Oil prices have gone up, you know, and then basically it's, it's, they say it's closed. The straight over Moose is closed. And Trump says he's going to do something about that by insuring the ships. And maybe they're going to have, you know, destroyers escorting, he says, but, you know, the straight Hormuz is not just, it's also where a huge portion of the fertilizers for food crops around the world come out of there also. And, you know, it's just such a, it's such a central hub. It's actually so critical. I don't think people even understand it. You say, well, you know, the U.S. is basically, we've got Venezuela now, and also we're basically energy independent, so it won't really matter for us. And I just think that that's a kind of a foolish notion. What do you think?

[B]

Yeah, it's, it's naive. And I've got to say I was shocked that Trump has said that he's going to offer insurance to ships want to sail through there. I mean, so now the US Government is in the insurance business, you know, competing with firms that do this type of thing, and they're going to back it up by sending destroyers along with the ships to defend them. But wait a minute. Militarily, this impresses me as a very stupid thing to do because, you know, Caesar used to talk about not going to places that are narrow and difficult. Those are Caesar's words exactly. And the Straits of Horvus are like a, some is narrow and difficult. So the destroyers that go through there, sure, they can defend themselves. With their three million dollar missiles to shoot down, you know, ten thousand dollar drones, but not if there's 100 or a thousand drones launched at them. So this is like, this is like asking for some, some US Naval vessels act to act as future scuba diving points.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, you're right. And you know, and we failed at, with the, in the Red Sea against the Houthis to be able to protect that shipping route.

[B]

I would think that the Iranians are much more sophisticated than the Houthis are when it comes to having this stuff.

[A]

Right. So you know, anyway, when you see, when you see the state and Trump in particular here, like kind of lashing out with doing more, doing pretty extreme things, it's like it causes problems and then he has another extreme reaction to it. And so that's, that's what you see these, these slate of promises. And you know, another one was with Spain saying, you know, we don't want your military bases or we don't want you using, you know, offensive capabilities flying out of our bases. And then Trump says what? Well we're going to excommunicate you, you know, from the U S Trade of all kinds, you know, and I'm asking

[B]

myself, does that mean that U S airlines can no longer fly to Spain? I mean, or vice versa? Yeah, I, exactly. I mean how far does he want to, want to take this? And it's all arbitrary just by, by the seat of his pants.

[A]

That's right. And I wouldn't be surprised if that happens if he does actually cut them off to some substantial degree. Because he does. He had that power affirmed recently by the Supreme Court ruling that, that knocked down his tariffs and said he could do that. So yeah, it's getting, it's getting out of hand. You know, some interesting things that happen. You know, everything is about data and AI and data centers now. And I don't know if you saw it, but there were some AWS data centers that were targeted by the Iranians. And you know, I think that, you know, theoretically they were being used for military purposes. You know, who does, why wouldn't they use those data centers? But also, I don't know if you know this, but a lot of the, like the Emirate, Emirati banks were offline because all their banking, mobile, digital banking stuff was run off of those. So they had problems. You know, you doing banking, even their, you know, some of their card services were down. So don't have cash, you know, you have your debit card data center blew up and now you got no money in Dubai where everyone's rich, I mean, except for all the workers. So, you know, it's just, it's. It's a crazy thing. And you just can see that, like, it's like a little fractal of what's possible here, you know, what's possible anywhere.

[B]

Yeah. And that airport in Dubai, I believe it is the largest and busiest airport in the world. And I went through there. Didn't we go through there when we were coming back from last year?

[A]

No, no, we went through Istanbul for that. But I think you went on your way to Asia.

[B]

Yeah. Anyway, I went through it and the size of that thing and the amount of planes to go through it there, it's unbelievable. So it's shut down, as it should be when there are missiles flying around and. And so forth. So. And what, what is this? The Saudi oil refinery was attacked. And of course, and the Iranians said, look, we didn't do it because they've had a long standing agreement with the Saudis. We're not in the suicide pact to blow each other's oil refineries up.

[A]

Now, a lot of people probably immediately go, of course the Iranians did it. And, but, but they, but, but the fact is, is that they have acknowledged all the things they've attacked. They said these hotels that we went after in Dubai, there were US Personnel in them. Yeah, that's why we went after them. But for this, they're saying, no, absolutely, positively, we did not do it. We did not do it at all. And, you know, so I tend to think that's credible.

[B]

I do, too. Makes no sense.

[A]

And so who is doing it?

[B]

Either the US or, oh, I hate to say it, the Israelis. They would have the. The biggest dog in this fight. So. Yeah, absolutely.

[A]

And this is. I don't know if you saw, Tucker had a monologue, long monologue yesterday, I think it was. And he talked about this issue, and he said that the next day, apparently both Qatar and Saudi Arabia arrested Mossad agents who were planning explosives, planning to plant explosives. So, like, it's like they're trying to. They definitely want a regional war. It's not just about going after Iran. Like, they, they want a Sunni, Shia thing going on, you know, because these Gulf leaders at least, are Sunni, although a lot of their population is Shia. And, you know, the, The Iranians are Shia. So anyway, it seems like they're. It just seems like it can explode in all kinds of different ways. And there was even a ballistic missile shot at Turkey that was shot down. You know, they, they. It didn't Land, but. So they're involving Turkey in the mix as well.

[B]

Yeah. And I wonder what's going to happen with three F15s being coming out of the air. I mean, they say that the incompetent Kuwaitis shot them down.

[A]

It's been updated.

[B]

Oh, who really did it?

[A]

They claim now it was an F18 pilot who shot all three of them down. A Kuwaiti F18 pilot who was actually a contractor, was actually an American F8 who was flying the plane on contract for Kuwait. Kuwait. And he shot down all three. That's the current argument.

[B]

Amazing. And I. Anyway, that's what I. I saw someplace, that these were the most advanced variety of F15s, not old ones, but things that were thoroughly updated and upgraded. Three of them. That's. That's pretty impressive.

[A]

In quick succession. Yeah.

[B]

Yeah. What's going on here?

[A]

Well, the.

[B]

Are the Keystone Cops fighting this war?

[A]

Well, I'll say it does seem like it sometimes, but, I mean, the Iranians do. I have seen reports of the Iranians claim that they shot them down. So, you know, who knows what really happened? But, yeah, it's getting stuck on. They even named the pilot. Some American F18 pilot is who they're blaming it on now. Yeah.

[B]

Oh, well, he's got some splainer to do.

[A]

He sure does.

[B]

I'd like to hear his side of the story. I mean, you can figure the Kuwaitis are congenitally incompetent, but an American F18 pilot, not so much.

[A]

Yeah, three of them, too. You know, I mean, he personally, that's. That's a great dog fight. He took down 3F15. Exactly. I mean, it's amazing. So, you know, these are the things where you say we don't know what's going on. You know, like these kinds of details. I totally agree. We have no idea. Reality. And the other thing is the US Claims there have been, I think, as of now, this morning, anyway, six dead American soldiers or, you know, airmen or whatever so far. But I suspect those numbers are much higher. Honestly.

[B]

Yeah. And who knows how many thousands more missiles and drones the Iranians will launch. And if the Americans and the Israelis shoot some of them down, how much does it cost? And how many really expensive interceptors do we have to do that? It's a good question. They have. Trump says they got plenty. Well, like I said, he's a pathological, enthusiastic liar. I mean, that's kind of his job description. It's not just Trump. It's the job description.

[A]

It is the job description.

[B]

Political officer. So the smartest thing for Trump to do. I mean, if. If he wanted my advice, which I promise you he doesn't, would be, look, declare victory, say we taught him a lesson, showed him we're serious. Now we're. We're going away. We're going to leave you alone now. Just cut this thing off now before it gets out of control. But I don't think he'll do that.

[A]

Well, have you heard the talk about. About sending boots on the ground? Have you heard any of these. This. Talk about it?

[B]

Yeah, but that's. That's too stupid to credit, actually. What, are you gonna. What, are you gonna land a battalion of Marines there and have them capture somebody who.

[A]

It's. It starts with. Well, you know, what they're doing is they're arming the Kurds and they, you know, they use them as the muscle. You bring in some Green Berets at first to work with them, then you start reinforcing, you know, the. Them with American soldiers and. Yeah, I think. I think it comes that way. I think it's using the Kurds, using these separatist groups.

[B]

That's. That's a good point. I mean, there's nothing like starting a major civil war in another country, especially one where a quarter of the Kurds are in Turkey, which is our ally. And Turkey's always had a problem with their Kurds in the southeast of that country.

[A]

So this is how you rope.

[B]

Turks will be unhappy about that. Very unhappy.

[A]

Really unhappy. You know, especially if you have a strengthened, reinforced, supported, maybe even someday effective Kurdish force. Well, that's a good way to get the. Get the Turks involved in this regional war.

[B]

Yeah,

[A]

they cannot stand for that. You know, that's. They cannot stand for these Kurds, you know, getting too much power. So, yeah, this is. Anyway, this gets. This is spiraling fast, and I just don't see how it's. It's super unpredictable at this stage, and I just don't see how you could put the genie back in the bottle.

[B]

I'm. I'm trying to look at some good news that can come out of this. Hey, we don't hear anything about it, about the Ukraine at this point. That's, you know, so that's kind of cleared that. That part of your mental video screen. I don't have to worry about the Ukraine anymore. Yeah.

[A]

Or Epstein, for that matter.

[B]

Pretty much in the background. Yeah, I mean, first things first.

[A]

We'll come back to it later and really go after those guys.

[B]

That's right. Put her on a. Put her on the back burner for the time being. So,

[A]

yeah, it's, it's wild, Doug. The whole thing is, is it's bad. And so how does this. What a bad market day. Yesterday, in response to this Monday was really muted, I thought, you know, the market response. But Tuesday it seemed to wake up. I haven't actually looked at the markets today yet. What, what happens in the markets, do you think?

[B]

Well, since I'm. I'm really not involved in. In the S P and NASDAQ kind of stocks. I mean, what's interesting, that Hydrograph stock that we recommended a year ago and you and I both own has gone about 8 to 1 since. Since we recommended it way back then hit a new, a new high yesterday. I don't know how it's doing.

[A]

It's up 8, 8% today. And by the way, the S, the S P is flat. Gold is up a little bit. It's at 5150, basically.

[B]

Well, I'm glad. I hope Hydrograph is off and running because our friend Kevin Bramble, who is probably the largest shareholder of it and a big supporter of it, talked to us for an hour the other day. Are we still going to have Kevin on?

[A]

Yeah, we'll have to have him on. Definitely.

[B]

We need to have on because explain why this company is often running the way it is. So anyway, it's been good news for us. And also I just monitor my portfolio, which is pretty much the crisis investing portfolio. And it wasn't up, but it wasn't down yesterday. So these little gold stocks are so underpriced relative to stocks in general. I'm not very worried about them, even though they've been spectacular performers so far. It's only the cognoscenti that are buying them. The general public is not involved in them at all. And there are no major fund managers at all that are involved in them. And the statistics show that mining stocks are about 1% of the average person's portfolio, which is a rounding error. So I think the big buying is still going to come. Gold is going to stay here and go higher. So will silver. So I feel, you know, what's that rock and roll song? Something's happening and I feel fine. I guess I do.

[A]

Yeah. Okay, so you're not worried about the markets at least get long oil or

[B]

at this point, because if we're right and this thing spins out of control, oil is going to go a lot higher. I'm just surprised. It hasn't gone up very much so far. So I might take a little bit of risk and sell some puts where I think I can get big premiums in the futures market on oil. I think I might do that. And I wouldn't mind with new capital finding good oil stocks that are not involved in the Middle East. We have one on our list now, Marin Oil, which is.

[A]

Yeah, we've got a couple. We got Petrobras.

[B]

Petrobras is. One is Ecopatrol, another one we have on the list. And both of those pay very big dividends, Something on the order of, I don't know, 10%, which is sweet to be paid while you wait for capital gains, which I think are definitely coming in a big way. So, yeah, I'm. But God forbid the stock market in general collapses. That would set off a lot of nasty things. Just what you need on top of World War iii, right?

[A]

Yeah. And if you want to know more about the crisis investing portfolio, just you got to subscribe at CrisisInvesting do you can see exactly what Doug is buying or owns. One thing I want to talk to you about, speaking of crisis, is that, you know, you often. Or not often, but let's say it's. It happens from time to time that people criticize you because you've been predicting what you call the greater depression for a long time now. And people look around and they say, well, has. It didn't happen, it didn't happen. And so I want to talk about, like, people's ability to recognize crisis. It seems. It seems like we are, as humans, very good at it. I remember, you know, the when. When the Mexican government with the US Government a couple weeks ago, you know, killed the leader of a cartel. And then the cartel, you know, had a day of rage, essentially going around setting things on fire, stealing people's cars, you know, that kind of thing. I remember seeing a video of a guy who's on the beach in Mexico, and you could see in the field view of the camera that there's like, plume of smoke down the beach one way from him, another one up the beach from him. And he's just walking around, you know, big beer belly, you know, with a can of beer in his hand. It's just totally oblivious to what's happening around him. And I'm like, you know, maybe it won't make any difference if you do anything, but, like, you're not even aware that something might need to be done. You know, there might be a problem around you. And I feel like that's a lot of people's disposition. You know, they say, what's not the greater depression. And yet like the dollar has lost half its purchasing power since 2020. Like that sounds like a crisis.

[B]

Yeah, that's right. It's a little bit like when a tsunami comes in. Most people, unless there's been a reasonable one that's drawn their attention to it, say, oh this is wonderful, look at all this extra beach we got and we can run out there and pick up seashells. And you know, they don't see what's about to happen. And see, the way I look at this is that being an amateur historian and watching things that most historians don't watch, I know anybody that looks into it would know this, that before World War I, governments around the world took an average 5% of the GDP of their countries. Now we're talking 40, 50, 60%. So governments have grown like a cancer. Now you get into what's your opinion of governments and what they do and what's the inevitable result of this. So, yeah, you can see it coming and you can see that a lot of Americans don't notice this because, yeah, technology's gotten better. And technology, of course is over the last 10,000 years has overcome wars and revolutions and destruction of currency and plagues and everything. But technology over the last 10,000 years has continued to increase the standard of living. So of course this is cause for optimism. And you think, well, why should that comet strike where I am now? Well, I don't know. Listen, I'm just giving a theoretical view and try to, Yeah, I thought the greater depression, you know, was going to be with us for the last, for decades. And lots of ways the standard of living of the average guy has fallen, just maintained by borrowing more money anyway.

[A]

And, and that is that, that feels like a depression to me when I see, you know, people having, it's, it's something like 56% of people tapped their 401ks recently. Now, like you don't do that if there's not a problem, if there's not a crisis, you know, because, because there

[B]

are severe tax penalties for doing that, are there not?

[A]

Right. But if you can't, if you can't meet your mortgage payment, you can't, you know, fund your car payment. That's what you do. So, like that, like these are so all these signs of crisis around us.

[B]

Well, the average car on the road, the statistics came out as they do every year, is 13 years old. The average car on the road, the oldest in history. And if you want to replace your 13 year old car, it'll cost you as much as A house used to cost a couple generations ago.

[A]

Exactly, exactly. So, you know, it's like during. It's almost to see. For people to see a crisis, they have to have a shared experience, you know, with their. Their community, all their friends. Got it. It's like, you know, we had to. We had to watch a plane crash into the south tower or something together in order for us to understand it's a crisis. It's like during COVID they had to, like, cancel major league sports in order to convince Americans that it was a crisis. You know what I mean? It's like you have to have that shared experience. Or like, no one. Everyone thinks it's fine. It's like whatever happens, nothing ever happens.

[B]

And incidentally, going back to that, that's one of the things that tend to make me really gloomy. It's that Americans just rolled over like whip dogs on their backs and wet themselves doing what they were told to do during the lockdown for a phony Covid crisis. And then they go out and all get jabs, which were much more dangerous, I think, than the COVID itself. I mean, it's. It's. It's really disheartening.

[A]

It is, and I think it's be.

[B]

It's.

[A]

There's something in our minds as humans that makes it hard for us to recognize and evaluate a threat unless it's some shared experience of some kind. So, like, the reason the COVID thing worked so well is because it was the best marketing campaign of my life. It was so well executed, and it was so. You know, it's like I said, if it doesn't disrupt your favorite football team season, it's not that big of a deal. But if it does, it must be important, you know? You know what I mean? It's like they need something like that, where they need to see, like, this flashbulb moment with, you know, some. A plane crashing into towers. And now we go. Now it's serious. You know, it's. Whereas they ignore the plumes of smoke down the street, you know.

[B]

Yeah. And it just proves that humans are herd animals, and they basically do what they're told, and they basically do what the. The crowd does. I mean, it's. Hey, listen, we're all guilty of this in our own individual lives, but when it happens to me, I'm ashamed of it. And I try to avoid it, but, yeah, I think.

[A]

Well, I just think we have to recognize it as a cognitive bias that works against us and just be, you know, looking. It's almost like you have A hypothesis. Okay, everything is fine. Everything's fine. But you should be constantly testing that hypothesis, looking around going, you know, well, the house is on fire now. Is it still fine? You know, I'm not so sure. You know, it's. Anyway, I, I just think that, yeah, people have a. People are really poor assessing crisis, and right now we are definitely in one that could escalate into something that will reach out and touch everybody if it continues in the Middle East.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, it'll. It'll become recognized. You know, it's funny, during the last crisis, it was recognized. Was it the 2008 stock market crisis or.

[A]

Yeah, the financial crisis. Yeah, that'd be a big one.

[B]

Yeah. There were a couple of people that actually picked like, there's, there's this pop economist, I think his name is Rubino or something like that, that actually Rubini, who stole my patented trademark phrase, the greater Depression, saying that he thought it had started back then and there was somebody else besides that, too. And it, that annoyed me.

[A]

You know, was it secure idea? But I, but I do think that they were right that it did start then and we're still in it.

[B]

Yeah, well, actually, you can say that it started back in 1971.

[A]

Yeah. Yeah, I guess you could. So, anyway, any last thoughts on Iran? Any. What you think might happen next?

[B]

My prediction is that somehow this is going to end badly. Unless Trump decides to declare victory and go home. Maybe he might do it, but I don't think he will. Yeah, I hope I'm wrong. That's, that's, that's my final word. So in all likelihood, it's likely to get devolving and get worse.

[A]

Well, I think, Mike, what does Michael Yan say about wars? They grow. That's what, that's what happens.

[B]

Yeah. And they're completely unpredictable. So. And unpredictable when people have nuclear weapons and stuff like that is not good.

[A]

Right. And you know, if they can't suppress the missile attacks after some period of time, I think that becomes a reasonable option for Israel or the US Actually to deploy nukes there. I really do.

[B]

And listen, there is another thing here that work. It's that historically it was considered a no, no to attack the leader of a foreign country. Like, nobody tried to take out Hitler, nobody tried to take out Stalin or Tojo. That was. You don't go there. I mean, a professional courtesy. But now, in recent years, but emphasized more with Trump, the idea is to cut the head off the snake. And I'm just wondering when they're going to say, oh, okay, two can Play this game.

[A]

Well, I saw this morning Hegseth was claiming that the Iranians were responsible for the assassination attempts on Trump and that. That they recently killed the leader who was in charge of that group in Iran.

[B]

Wait, wait a minute. Those. Those two assassination attempts when he was running for office. The. The Iranians did it.

[A]

That's what they're saying.

[B]

I thought it was supposed to be the Russians back in those. What basis in fact does he have for making that allegation?

[A]

I mean, we're way beyond that, Doug. We're way beyond facts. He just said it. It's narrative.

[B]

These people are so dishonest. They're. It's just criminal. They're so dishonest.

[A]

Well, and. And you hear Trump referred to that earlier this week where he said, you know, he. Something like, I got him before he got me. He tried to get me, but I actually got him, you know, talking about the Ayatollah.

[B]

Oh, and going back a little bit further, it was like the baby Bush was saying, they tried to kill my daddy.

[A]

That's right. Saddam tried to kill my daddy.

[B]

Yeah. And it was a. It was. It was a. It was a really stupid mistake, taking out Saddam just like taking out Gaddafi. Most people are completely unaware of the fact that Libya is now two countries.

[A]

Yeah. You know, just one last thing. It's, you know, you said Israel's in trouble with this situation where. Just where they happen to be geographically, demographically. That may be true, but at the same time, if you look at what they have done in the last four years, just do a clean sweep of opposition to them. It really is. It really is. I mean, so. And you can see how all of those things led, you know, like domino's falling that had needed to happen in order for Iran to be on the menu.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

It doesn't seem like an accident.

[B]

Oh, no, no, no, it doesn't.

[A]

All right, Doug. Well, we can leave it there, but we'll be back on Friday, and who knows what'll happen between now and then.

[B]

Maybe our audience, if anybody's still with us here, we've been chatting for over an hour. I think it's a good time for questions. Love to have some questions to see if we can dig up any reasonable answers.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. You. The. We prioritize questions from subscribers, so if you want to make sure your question gets asked, you can ask it through file or membership group, or if you're a subscriber on substack, through that chat there, the group chat, ask those questions there. And then I'LL make sure they get asked. You leave them in the comments, too. We get to those if we don't have enough other questions. But we prioritize our subscribers. So, yeah, questions are good. We enjoy them.

[B]

Anything can happen in between now and Friday.

[A]

Anything. All right, well, let's see what happens. Doug and I'll talk to you on Friday.

[B]

Hey, thanks, Matt. Thanks.