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What Happens To Gold Stocks In A Crisis? - Doug Casey's Take | Wave AI Podcast Notes

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What Happens To Gold Stocks In A Crisis?

Doug Casey's Take

Fri Feb 06 2026

Summary

Podcast Summary: Doug Casey’s Take

Episode: What Happens to Gold Stocks in a Crisis?
Host: Matthew Smith
Guest: Doug Casey
Date: February 6, 2026

Episode Overview

In this subscriber Q&A episode, Doug Casey—best-selling author, speculator, and libertarian philosopher—answers questions on crisis investing, with a focus on gold stocks during market turmoil. Alongside host Matthew Smith, Doug discusses the nature of sound money, the impact of financialization on assets like Bitcoin and silver, the prospects for real estate in Argentina, risks with small business investing, and the perennial value and pitfalls of precious metal stocks. The episode is rich with contrarian insights, practical anecdotes, and historical context.

Key Discussion Points

1. Bitcoin: Currency, Speculation, and Financialization

Is Bitcoin still a viable currency, or just a speculative asset?
- Doug explains Bitcoin meets Aristotle’s criteria for sound money: durability, divisibility, convenience, consistency, use value, and the inability to be created out of thin air ([02:10–03:50]).
- Host and Doug both see Bitcoin as worthwhile to own, but note how financialization—introduction of futures and derivative products—has changed its price behavior, making it feel less genuine as a “real” market ([05:14–08:00]).
Notable quote:

“People want to get rid of the crappy money and keep the good money... That’s why we don’t use wheat as money, why we don’t use real estate as money.” — Doug Casey [02:00]

“As soon as [Bitcoin] started to be financialized ... the pricing changed. It took the wind out of the sails, like gold after futures trading began.” — Matthew Smith [05:32]

2. Argentina Real Estate Opportunities

Where to invest in Argentina?
- Doug recommends Buenos Aires (BA) apartments for accessibility and value (BA apartments at ~10% the cost of New York’s). Raw land is cheap but complicated to own/manage (squatters, illiquidity). Doug shares personal stories of owning vast tracts in Patagonia and Salta ([12:44–18:46]).
Strategy note:

“If you got a New York apartment, I think a great arbitrage would be to sell it and buy one in BA now.” — Doug Casey [13:52]
- Biggest risks with raw land: management and squatters.

3. Investing in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

Risks and headwinds:
- Doug observes he doesn't directly invest in SME rollups but sees opportunity in the “silver tsunami” (aging founders with no succession plans).
- Major headwinds are general macro risks and the weakening of the lower-end consumer base ([19:17–21:12]).

4. Gold Miners: Analyst Rerating and Crisis Dynamics

Is the rerating thesis for gold miners valid?
- Doug believes miners remain undervalued; gold and silver have reached a new equilibrium, but the market hasn’t priced this in yet ([21:57–23:05]).
Geopolitical risks:
- Operations in places like Mali face political dangers: war, nationalization, unreliable governments ([24:21–25:53]).
Mining stocks in a crisis:
- In a severe market downturn, miners may initially fall with the market (like 2008), but “rebound differently.” Central bank buying could create a floor under gold ([65:14–71:28]).
Notable quote:

“It’s a crappy business, but it’s a great place to be right now because these stocks are really cheap. Cheaper than they should be. Way cheaper.” — Doug Casey [26:15]

5. Financialization of Assets & Market Distortions

Bitcoin, silver, and derivatives:
- Financial engineering (derivatives, futures) distorts underlying market prices, creating volatility disconnected from fundamentals ([56:58–58:19]).
- The same systemic risks are evident with Bitcoin, silver, and in legacy systems like fractional reserve banking ([63:48–64:34]).
Notable quote:

“Markets become casinos when financialization takes over—they’re distorted far beyond the underlying.” — Matthew Smith [57:39]

6. Religion, Civilization, and Free Markets

Gibbon and Rome’s moral decline:
- Doug critiques the notion that Christianity directly fostered Western greatness or free markets, instead arguing that Christianity undermined martial/ancient virtues ([30:05–39:20]).
Notable quote:

“Don’t mix up religion with science. They’re two separate things.” — Doug Casey [39:13]

7. Strategic Minerals & Government Stockpiling

Case study: Aries Strategic Mining (Fluorspar):
- Doug sees potential for government favoritism if the US builds strategic stockpiles, but warns government involvement always ends badly, except for well-connected insiders ([40:58–43:38]).

8. New Films and Cultural Decay

Hosts discuss the dystopian themes of “One Battle After Another” and recent trends in U.S. cinema—loss of the middle class, decline of Western values ([43:38–47:33]).

9. Gold Taxation and Tier 1 Assets

Clarifies that gold’s new status as a “tier one” central bank asset has no bearing on its collectible tax treatment. Taxes will rise as governments desperately seek revenue ([47:33–49:02]).

10. Japanese Market and Global Capital Flows

Interest rates rising in Japan may unwind carry trades, pushing capital into Japanese equities at Western expense ([50:02–52:50]).

11. Fractional Reserve Banking and Usury

Doug denounces fractional reserve banking as a fraud, but sees lending (credit) as essential for modern economies ([59:28–63:48]).

12. Stop Losses in Gold Miners

Doug doesn’t use stop losses, citing volatility and the risk of being whipsawed by market manipulation. He favors holding quality miners for the long-term trend ([72:00–74:51]).
Notable quote:

“Buy something that’s good...and just hold on to it. I don’t believe in stop losses. I’m not using them right now.” — Doug Casey [74:20]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Bitcoin’s evolution:

“Bitcoin’s pure form has been adulterated.” — Matthew Smith [08:55]
On mixing gold with faith:

“Don’t mix up religion with science...Religion has nothing to do with free markets.” — Doug Casey [39:13]
On government stockpiling:

“What has the government ever done in business that ended well? The answer is never.” — Doug Casey [41:50]
On gold miner investing:

“Crappy business—but a great place to be right now.” — Doug Casey [26:15]
On stop losses:

“If you’re a little guy playing around where elephants are dancing, you’re gonna get stomped on. Buy something good and hold.” — Doug Casey [73:53]

Important Timestamps & Sections

[01:21] – Doug’s overview of Bitcoin’s viability as money
[05:14–08:00] – Discussion on Bitcoin’s financialization and market changes
[12:44–18:46] – Real estate in Argentina: BA apartments vs. raw land
[19:17] – Risks in scaling and rolling up small businesses
[21:57–26:30] – Gold miners, analyst ratings, Barrick’s earnings, and sector outlook
[65:14–71:28] – What happens to gold stocks (and gold) in a financial crisis?
[72:00–74:51] – Stop loss philosophy and practical advice for mining stocks

Tone & Style

The tone throughout is candid, anecdotal, and pragmatic. The hosts avoid hype, emphasize skepticism—especially regarding government actions and financial engineering—and focus on preserving and growing wealth during unstable times.

TL;DR Key Takeaways

Gold mining stocks are likely undervalued; present a compelling opportunity during crises, but can fall with the broader market before rebounding.
Bitcoin meets monetary criteria but is at risk of distortion by financialization and institutional interests; still worth owning some.
Real assets in Argentina (especially BA apartments) are undervalued, but raw land requires careful management.
The financial system is increasingly casino-like; beware derivative-driven volatility in assets like BTC, silver, and gold miners.
Central banks are accumulating gold, providing a floor to prices that may act differently from past crises.
Stop losses may not serve long-term investors well in volatile sectors like gold miners—focus on fundamentals and trends.

For further company-specific mining recommendations and deeper sector analysis, Doug directs listeners to his premium newsletter and the free Investors Roundtable educational panels.

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Transcript

A (0:02)

All right. Good morning Doug. We're back with questions from subscribers to Crisis Investing and members of the File. If you're interested in asking Doug question, subscribe to Crisis Investing in Substack. There's a group discussion. You can ask a question there or you can ask it on file. And we write them all down and then we present them here on Friday. So Doug, the first question is taking a thousand foot view of Bitcoin or maybe a 10 year view. Do you still think its original intended use case holds true? How can Bitcoin ever be used for transactions if the belief is that someday it will all be worth millions due to its limited supply? Why would anyone use any of it? You're you're told the hodl to infinity. So how does it ever become a currency? At this point it's more than likely intelligence agencies either created it or had a hand in its inception. And a BlackRock and other governments are gobbling up the supply. How can it be trusted when those institutions are involved? And I will say it was specifically talked about in the Epstein piece that Epstein funded the bitcore developers early on. So we do know that there's CD ties to it at least maybe not at inception, but at that point. But anyway. So what do you think? What's the 10,000 foot view on bitcoin?

B (1:21)

Okay, so I guess part of the question anyway is how can it ever be a currency if it's going to millions in some people's opinion and nobody wants to spend it. But there's something called am I correct saying Gresham's law, which basically says people want to get rid of the crappy money and keep the good money. I mean, you know, given it, given a choice. If you're going to pay for something, I'll pay for something and depreciate dollars, not gold. Yeah, and hold on to the gold for myself. This is natural. So this is true of bitcoin too. That's not a reason why it's won't be a good money. It's the reason why it will be a good money. And the argument that look, I was a late adopter to bitcoin. I only figured it out really in 2017. And the way I figured out that it was going to be an okay money and it's still a pup, you know, it's in the history of these things. It's only been around 20 years. I mean less than that actually. What was 2011 to? Here we are in 15 years. So you know, it's still evolving and being accepted and most people in the world don't even know it's of its existence. But it's growing. Okay, look, I've said this before, but it's worth saying again. It's that the characteristics of a good money, and Aristotle figured this out in the fourth century B.C. it's got to be durable. That's why we don't use wheat as money. It's got to be divisible. That's why we don't use artwork as money. It's got to be convenient. That's why we don't use letters, money or oil. It's got to be consistent. That's why we don't use real estate as money. They've tried that too, of course. And it has to have use value, which is why we don't use paper as money. Printed government paper. And there's a reason that Aerosol didn't think of because it was totally irrelevant. Out of the question in his day is it can't be created out of thin air. So I think bitcoin satisfies all of those characteristics of a good money. And it's got some advantages over gold because it's electronic. Now it's got some disadvantages relative to gold or silver because it's electronic. So. But I think bitcoin could have a place in the fact that governments and corporations are toying with buying it. Okay, I don't see a problem with that. They own gold too, or whatever. So answer to the question, Bitcoin's not going to zero. And I think if you buy it now where it's. I don't know what it is, 65,000 or something like that at the moment. I think it may be a very good speculation here over, over a long.

A (5:18)

Yeah, I was, I'll tell you. But I. There's. There was a real change that happened with bitcoin. In late 2017 when they started trading futures on it, as soon as they started to financialize, wasn't just about simple supply and demand. They could start creating all these derivative instruments around it, essentially creating markets around bitcoin that didn't have anything really to do with the underlying asset itself. So as soon as that started happening to me, it started, its pricing changed, it didn't follow. Like logical, like if you look at a long term commodity, you know, boom and bust cycle, that's what bitcoin was. But it's super compressed and it was, you know, you could just see how it moved in that and you could. And it, it just felt like a real market, like a real supply. You could feel a mania, you know, and then you knew it was time to take some profits. I mean it was and that's becoming less and less true the more financialized it becomes, you know, so they start. So now all the derivatives and the wrapping of bitcoins to get yield and you know, all these different things that you can do with it now I think if taking it away from its pure form, like, like gold in its pure form, you know, when they started, you know, with the futures trading around gold, you know that it's like no one's taking possession of it. They're just settling for cash all the time. It's like it kind of, it took the wind out of the sails I think of, of gold itself because the action was in these larger markets where these derivatives, the whole derivatives complex could be added to it. So you know, I don't like or trust the Wall street people. And the more involved they get, definitely the more skittish I get about it personally. And then the other, and I'll say I also think that it's worth owning some bitcoin. I wouldn't, I don't, I'm against these bitcoin maxis that just think, you know, it's all in and on bitcoin and it's going to be the future of everything. But I do think you should own some. But I did read recently, last year, I guess it was Roger Ver's book Hijacking Bitcoin and you know, he explains how essentially it was co opted by, we weren't sure exactly who but in these Epstein revelations that have come out, it seems very clear that his group had something to do with the hijacking of it. That took it from being a currency to where now it's like the digital gold. It went from, people thought of it as a currency to where the PR around it all switched to where it's digital gold, which means it's supposed to be gold, not used but locked up and you know, kind of maybe take out debt against it and stuff like that instead. And anyway, that, that book was. Is worth reading if you're into bitcoin. I think it's really. It's like even if you're totally sold on bitcoin, it's worth seeing that other side from Roger Ver, who was known as Bitcoin Jesus was there from the very beginning. Was. He was bitcoin Jesus because he was a. The. He was an evangelical for bitcoin and talking about its virtues and his side of seeing what happened from the inside and how it was corrupted by the changes that were made to it. So those are the. To me, the downsides of bitcoin is that it isn't. Its pure form has been, you know, adulterated, I guess, you know, so. But yeah, I think you should have some exposure to some of it. Yeah. I don't know. What do you think?

B (31:53)

It was spent at that point. Yes, yes it was. And Christianity you can correctly say, was a, was a worm eating away at the moral tenor of, of Christianity. And it did drain, you know, let's see what else he says here. Eat energy already spent. The Christian proposition would form the foundation of future European greatness. Well, yeah, but not right away because after Rome collapsed and the dark ages ensued, where people no longer built great buildings, didn't maintain the roads, there was no commerce, there was nothing. And people lived in, you know, everybody lived in shacks or ruins from, let's say this actually started around 450 up to 8 or 900 anyway. So it was about 400 years, the so called Dark ages where Christianity was the ruling ethos. So I don't, I think it's pretty hard to argue that Christianity formed the foundation of future European greatness. No less than he for Greece. Well, I don't know. Every, every civilization, every age has its kind of ruling idea or set of ideas. Okay, so he had, and Homer were, you know, set the tone for ancient Greece and Christianity for Europe. But so anyway, Christianity's assertion of an unchanging diety elevated truth over narrative. Well that's not really true because in the ancient world there was a distinct difference between theology, what the gods studying the gods and science studying nature. So the fact that, that I guess he's referring to Yahweh or maybe Jesus, later it would be Allah. I guess these are all unchanging entities. The Holy Ghost too fits in there somehow, I suppose. But elevated truth over narrative. Wait a minute, that's. How do you know it's true? Because the Bible says that you've got to be somebody that believes in the Bible to say elevated truth over narrative. Well, it's all narrative. Quite right. Whether it's the Bible or Hessian or Homer or or Horus or Ovid or anybody that writes about ancient gods without which science cannot exist, nor technology, nor advance. Self consciously that's not true. Religion had absolutely nothing to do with science in those days. Religion was about worshiping the gods, giving the God cult, as they said, treating them with respect had nothing to do with Science. So that's simply untrue. And actually, throughout most of Western history, religion has been the enemy of science. I mean, Galileo is just a prominent case of that, but one of many, many where they've been enemies to each other in defense of individual dignity involved into individual rights. In the west, we've always believed individual dignity, that's honor and things like that. Uh, and you know, did Christianity see the reason why Christianity acted as a worm eating away at ancient culture was like, what were the virtues of Christianity? Well, faith, hope and charity, those are not martial virtues. Faith is believing something which is unbelievable. And hope, you know, hope is never been anything to rely on. I mean, that's hope, that's.