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A
All right. Good morning, Doug. It's been a while since we've talked. We took six weeks off and thinking maybe over the holidays nothing would happen or not too much, but it seems to opposite seems to have been the case. It's been quite a busy period. We have the gold and silver markets, especially silver exploding. We snatched a dictator out of Venezuela. So all kinds of stuff going on. So what's your like 30,000 foot view or take on what's actually happening right now?
B
Well, everybody's gotten into the habit of quoting Lenin. There are, there are weeks when everything happens and years when nothing happens or words to that effect. And he's quite correct. And I think that things are going to actually speed up from here, not cyclically slow down really. The world is becoming much more unstable and nothing is making it more stable. And once again, let me start off by repeating a prediction that I've made here before, but it's worthwhile repeating. I think I'll take odds that Trump is not going to complete his term and there's lots of reasons why that can happen and I'll bet one of them will happen. So that's the kind of environment we're living in.
A
So anything from he gets assassinated to impeached and thrown out of office to.
B
Or cabinet uses, what is it, the 25th Amendment to right. They're incompetent or, or who knows, who knows what could happen. Maybe somebody will try to snatch him much the way.
A
Hopefully he's got the Delta Force team around the White House.
B
Yeah, Trump would be a, a very hard target, but still bold mercenaries might think in those terms. Right. That, that's happened in movies actually. So yeah, fiction, fiction is the best predictor of reality. It's happened in several.
A
Okay, so that's a big, that's a big prediction. Yeah. What would happen if that did happen? I mean JD Vance would seem like he's a let's just step in and pro continue the agenda with probably renewed energy, wouldn't he?
B
Yeah, I think it'd be pretty much like what happened in Venezuela. The infrastructure of the US government, all these people that have to collect their paychecks every week and all of the instrumentality behind it that allows them to collect their paychecks and do what they're told. Actually kind of nothing would, nothing would happen except people would be shocked that it could happen. I mean what's happening in Venezuela? I mean the government is still there.
A
Right. Except for there would be, there would just be a renewed energy, you know, whether anger or whatever. You know, with Trump, if Trump was off the scene for whatever reason, because, you know, his supporters are very deep supporters. I mean, they're like, they're, they're serious.
B
Yes, they are. And I can understand, I can understand that because they righteously feel that if Trump hadn't been elected, God forbid, what would have happened with those two morons in the Democratic Party? I mean, it would be completely out of control. So of course they support Trump.
A
They see it, you know, he's the only option, really.
B
Last. Our last hope.
A
Yeah, yeah.
B
Anyway. But I doubt if the Venezuelans view Maduro that way. Although perhaps a surprisingly large number of Iranians view their Ayatollah that way. I have no idea.
A
I mean, it seems impossible to understand what's actually happening in Iran right now, though. I can't tell. I mean, I mean, what, what, what, what information do you have? And I know obviously you only read what you can read, but I mean, what, what do you, what's your impression about what's actually happening there right now?
B
Well, I was on a zoom call that I make every week with about 35 big deal money manager guys and, and a bunch of military guys among them, actually ex military guys, if something else. And we had a four star general visiting the group, talking about what he, how he assessed it, and as you might expect a top general to do, he didn't seem to have any moral basis what was right, what was wrong. He was just talking from a tactical military point of view. What could.
A
Capabilities.
B
Yeah, exactly. And his view was that boots on the ground would be a disaster and make no sense and probably be counterproductive because of course when a country is invaded by foreign soldiers, a lot of them that are on the, on the fence say, hey, we don't want these foreigners running around our country shooting up. So he thinks that would be a mistake, but he does think that the, and he knows, I guess, that the military has all kinds of plans for air power strikes to kill lots of top Iranian officials, but that'll create chaos actually. Who's going to take over next? Is it going to be the, the Shah's son who impresses me as a, a non entity at best?
A
Maduro, like.
B
Yeah, exactly. This guy's a, this guy's really a nothing, nobody and potentially evil. Having come out with statements about, well, you people shouldn't be saying all these things and your first amendment is outmoded and stuff like this. What is this guy even doing on anybody's radar screen? So who can take over Iran if we totally Blow up the government. And that'll piss off a lot of a religious. It'll piss off a lot of Iranians. So who knows? So my suggestion after the good general spoke was, look, it doesn't matter what the tactics are on this. We don't have any business there. The best thing that we can do for ourselves and for the Iranian people is get the hell out of there. I mean, all we're doing is creating more chaos and more hatred and more stability, instability. But that's not going to happen. That's not the way Trump thinks. So that was just a. And I said, hey, this is just a philosophical statement. In the real world, it ain't going to happen. US is going to more involved.
A
The US is going to become more involved. So. Well, because it, the impression I have is this, is this color revolution type stuff that's been going on there. Probably some legitimate dissent, you know, but encouraged by. Well, according to what's his face, the former Secretary of State said that Mossad had people there. Pompeo, like, he said that in a tweet that Mossad people were there. He assumed CIA people are behind it too, but that it has fizzled out or that it hasn't gone anywhere. That's the impression I have at this point. So what is the US's next move then? I mean, is it just to start the bombing, wait till the market closes on Friday and do it again?
B
That's all we can do, is bomb stuff, number one. But it's kind of disturbing that Trump has kind of announced to the Iranian people, don't worry, help is on the way, but we can't do anything to help them. So it just, it just makes them look like, like a liar or prevaricator again. So. Well, this is what chaos is. All this is what chaos. The chaos is unpredictable. It really is. Yeah.
A
So do you think, what do you, what do you say the odds are that the US does engage in airstrikes on Iran in the next 60 days? What do you, what would you say the odds are on that?
B
I think between the Israelis, of course, pushing for that to happen because they wanted. They're happy to see Iran fall and chaos in Iran, because a chaotic Iran is probably in Iran, that's going to leave them alone. So they're pushing Trump in that direction. And Trump feels like he's got to be. He's got to walk the walk now that he's talked the talk. So, yeah, I'd say the chances are real good that the, the U.S. is going to do Something stupid in Iran. I define stupid as doing anything in Iran at this point.
A
Okay, all right. So high. Like over 50%, over 80%. Just trying to.
B
Yeah, let's put it at 80%. Wow.
A
Okay.
B
And let's hope that I have to eat my words with a fork and spoon. I wrong on this one.
A
Yeah, but that, but that general that was there, he was.
B
Like, intelligent, well spoken, knowledgeable, even handed and ready to go. He said, yeah, no, they've got plans to do all this kind of stuff, but he doesn't think that boots on the ground are going to be part of the plans. So. But we had boots on the ground in Caracas, and that seems to have worked out kind of well. Except the current government is still the current government with somebody who's running the. Apparently Trump says he's running the Venezuelan government, but.
A
Yeah, and, you know, they just, they just. The State Department issued something telling all Americans to get out of there. Just yesterday or the day before. I don't know if you saw that they sent some notice because, you know, these, they call them the colectivos. There's like the kind of citizen militia, the shot, the chabista.
B
I. I usually discount State Department announcements. When I was traveling a lot, which, thank God, I'm not anymore. State Department alerts to me were a signal to go to that country because the State Department may say that it's. Well, like, for instance, I went to Israel during the second Intifada when it was red alert, red alert, and it was ultra safe, ultra nice because there were. All the damn tourists were gone. It was, it was wonderful. Was the best time. I mean, I had the whole country to myself. It seemed that way to me, anyway, so. And it's off and it's often that way. So in addition to. When it's not entirely that way, it's always more interesting. And danger in these places is always overrated, I've found. Or maybe I'm just lucky. But anyway, would I want to visit Caracas now? No, but. And I've pretty much sworn off buying foreign real estate that I can't use and live in. Okay. But Venezuela is a large country with not such a large population and not such a large wealthy population. So that if you really, if you really want to be an adventurer, you can tie up a large ranch in the middle of Venezuela, probably real cheap, because somebody would just like, look, I was in Chile in. When. When was this? I visited a guy at his house in Santiago, and it must have been 1980. And so I was talking to Him. What was it like during the days of Allende, which was the early 70s, and he was in a politically incorrect occupation. He was an arms dealer of all things. And he had a beautiful house that's part of really beautiful house with all the bells and whistles. And he says, he said in 19. What year was that? He said in 1973. So I would have sold you this house for $25,000 back then. Now $25,000 in the early 70s is not $25,000 today. But today that house is like a 5, 10 million dollar house. I don't know. So these things happen. Can you do that in Venezuela now is the question?
A
Yeah, probably. You would think so.
B
Yeah. Yeah, I'm thinking, well, you could probably buy a cattle ranch. But I've heard that all the cattle on all the cattle ranches have basically been absconded with and sent to the slaughterhouse to eat. And then how do you keep squatters off at a place like that? Well, really, that's really hard to do even in a civilized country like in the southern co. It's hard enough. So that's a problem. And how do you get good title? Are you sure that after the, you pay the money that you're really getting title, it'll be recognized by you can't.
A
Even be sure in, in British Columbia now, Doug.
B
That's true. That's true. You can't. That's right. So I don't know what's the speculator to do in Venezuela? I mean, they still have a stock market there, I guess, but you can't get money into the country legally to take advantage of it. So the theory of buying when blood is running in the streets is clear, but the practice is much, much harder.
A
Yeah. Well, is it same for Iran too?
B
I would think, yes.
A
Well, I mean, what about, what about Minnesota daycare centers? What do you think the market is for those these days? There's kind of blood in the streets.
B
You know, for years, for years I've been asking people that were from Minneapolis, Minnesota or whatever, tell me about these 200,000 Somalis that wandered into your city. What are they doing? How did they get there? Who paid for them? Well, nobody has any answers. Okay. But I guess we have the answers now. It's a gigantic swindle and fraud. This is one of the good things about Trump. I'm not a huge fan of Trump. I mean, he does good things, he does bad things. The worst things people say about him are true. And the best things people say about him, I mean, so but, but, but he's very entertaining and I, I like his sense of humor anyway. But so anyway, and he's responded.
A
He's, you know, this, this fraud thing, you know, it's, it's really been going on for a long time in Minneapolis. And it was, you know, you see these news reports, old news reports that have come up about it, showing that they know about it and they, you know, they, they know, for instance, that TSA in Minneapolis has in the last couple years $750 million of cash that's been moved out of the country through the airport. You know, they filled out the form saying they were doing so that they did it. So like there's a paper trail on this stuff that goes way back, you know, including down to the daycare center level. But you know, this citizen journalist guy, the cameras first, Nick Shirley. Shirley is the last name. I know it blew up know and got everyone's attention and now it's all focused there. And apparently, you know, now, now it's. The ICE agents have gone in there also. And I think that they, some, they have something like 2,600 federal agents now in, in Minneapolis, which is more than, you know, all the law enforcement people that are there. And of course there was that woman who, you know, got shot by the ICE officer. When, when Jane showed the video to me the first time I saw it, I'm like, well, the car was going toward him. I would assume that I would get shot if I were doing that in the recap in front of my car. Honestly, that's what it's, I would assume it would work out for me whether that should be that way or not. But, but then that becomes this big cause that's just kind of. They bring in, you know, more left wing agitators to try and there's like, it's like set up for a conflict.
B
Yeah.
A
You know, it's, it's like imagine the days of BLM if we actually sent in troops to deal with it. You know, that's kind of the situation we have now where there's just seems like there's bound to be a confrontation of some kind.
B
Yeah. The big difference is that a different group has control of the apparatus of the state. So the state is going to be deployed in different way as far as the Somalis are concerned. It's amazing to me that this group that comes from the middle of nowhere can arrive in the United States and successfully loot it for billions of dollars. So what I'd like to see happen is let's See everybody that anything to do with it arrested and have whatever assets they stole plus fines and penalties and interest confiscated. Yes. And then kicked out of the country. And that would probably include Ilhan Omar who impresses me as a genuine evil little. So.
A
Oh, well, they've, you know, it's, it's now I think it's confirmed. You know, she married her brother so that her brother could get into the country.
B
You know, but that's a fraud. So why isn't she being p. Prosecuted? What, what is, what is Pam Bondi doing?
A
I mean, Fox News hits, I think primarily.
B
Yeah, well, I can certainly see why Dan Bongino resigned. I mean, maybe he was over his head, but maybe he saw that it's, it's pointless trying to reform an iron bound bureaucracy like the FBI.
A
Yeah, that's the big thing. So let's say Trump, if Trump has, like, if, let's assume that the, the greatest supporters of Trump are correct and he's like, he is our last hope and he is acting on the side of the righteous. And like, how do you actually dismantle this?
B
Yeah, right. Yeah.
A
How do you dismantle any of it? I mean.
B
You really almost can't. I mean it's like a Gordian knot. One part is supporting the other and it's all in there with glue. So how do you, how do you, you gotta wait for it to all fall apart and collapse, which I think the US is well on its way to doing. But I was on this other zoom call I mentioned to you earlier today with Wolf securities, where I was on a panel with them and the previous panel to the one I was on, as I mentioned to you, is they had a, they had top people from, you know, automobile retailing, hardware, groceries, home building, all these things. And they were saying, how's business for you in your part of the country? And they were all pretty good. And actually pretty good. I mean, so there's no greater depression out there, at least among the people that Wolff Tech to say how their businesses are doing and they didn't have any access to grind. So.
A
It'S weird because, I mean all the data that you see seems to say that there's problems, you know, but.
B
They'Re talking about their businesses, not the little guy on the bottom. So maybe the little guy on the bottom really is getting hurt, but the businesses are doing okay somehow. And they all kind of like the idea of pumping up for money supply.
A
Of course they do.
B
They're big businessmen. What do you expect, Right?
A
Yeah, exactly. And they probably Have a lot of. They probably have a lot of debt in their balance sheet and you know, they probably used it. Yeah, so.
B
Yeah, but you know, you mentioned that video with the, with the, with the ICE agent. Yeah. Yeah, good. I watched it. Look, I couldn't really tell where the guy was or how the car was moving or anything. But one thing I do know is this. When you have a car that's parked there, even if an asshole is driving it, but it's not an aggressive asshole who's obviously armed. Although the bulldike wife of the femme that got shot, well, she was an aggressive asshole, no question. But she obviously wasn't armed and she wasn't even in the car at the moment. So it's irrelevant what she was doing or saying. So this woman that was driving the car, it seemed to me she was foolish trying to drive away when the cop is telling him to get out of the car. That's a mistake. Especially when you're talking about an ICE agent. Because these ICE agents, don't forget, these are people like TSA that were recruited from. Practically from pizza boxes, given $50,000 bonuses and don't have to have any qualifications. None. No education, no qualifications of any type. So who are they getting? I suspect they're getting lowlife, hyper aggressive guys. Exactly the wrong type of person. So epoxy on ice. I mean, they're a bunch of assholes. I mean, yeah, of course. In fact, people have said ICE is our new Gestapo. That's not quite accurate because the Gestapo was kind of the upper margins of German society. They were secret police and they were pretty smart. It's more like the sa, the Sturmarbeitlung, that were known as the Brownshirts that Hitler got rid of them during the Night of the Long Knives. These were bottom of the barrel Germans that like dressing up in uniforms and being bully boys. So they're really our sa. And the problem with. Real problem with ice, other than the fact that it is full of. That are hyper aggressive and like being given a gun. And I don't know how they're going to spend their $50,000 bonus. But. But.
A
At the automobile. Automobile retailers and hardware stores that were on the, on the.
B
That's. That's right. That's exactly right. That's right. Blitzy automobiles. But there was no excuse, none, for this guy to have taken his gun out of the holster just because he's dealing with some woman who's being polite, it seemed to me. But uncooperative, you don't pull your gun on her and if she starts moving the car and it wasn't moving quickly, that is no excuse to shoot her. So I mean the woman, I agree.
A
With you from a moral or ethical perspective, but in terms of the rules of the way that the police view it, you. They shouldn't do it. But this is what I would expect they would do.
B
Yeah, you can expect that. But, but this cop should be prosecuted for murder or at least some type of homicide and has to be not only because it was really stupid and uncalled for for him to shoot not once but twice, three times. The stupid woman and I, I box on both their hate all these people. Yes, yeah, yeah, but, but he should be prosecuted because you, this is why, this is what you call making an example. So these other in. In ice don't try the same thing because they can. They'll expect to be prosecuted too. Because we don't, we don't need these Roy driven imbeciles running around shooting people if they, if they have the wrong accent or who the hell knows.
A
They are people, they are making an example of him, but in exactly the opposite way.
B
The opposite way. That's right. Trump is supporting him. He's a hero and that's total. He's should be prosecuted for murder.
A
J.D. vance says absolute immunity.
B
Well, this tells me something about Vance. I mean, well, all these people around Trump, it's funny, all the people around Biden were a lot of were criminally insane like that. Like that tranny that dressed up in an admiral's uniform. That was funny. And like the Secretary of transportation where he was his wife or husband, whichever one it was in a swing together, adopted a baby. I mean, tell me that they're not going to be molesting that baby when the baby comes. This is, this is incredibly stupid. And dressing the military up in high.
A
Heels, I mean and, and mayorkas who led the invasion of at least 10 million. Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.
B
So the people around Vance were around, around Biden were crazier than he is. And the people around Trump are the same way. Like my God, these people. Like who? The only one that seems kind of sane is. Who's that military, good looking military girl that is head of Homeland Security.
A
Oh, Gabbard.
B
Gabbard. Tulsi Bear. She seems pretty sane. But the rest of them are, they're on the edge. I mean these people are just like.
A
What do you think? What do you think of Ascent?
B
I don't. Look, I'm the wrong person to ask about that. Whatever is happening, the US government is running deficits of about 3. Who knows what it is since Trump is ramping up the defense budget, excuse me, war budget, by another $500 billion a year from its already grossly inflated levels. I mean, he's like asking for a war, asking the rest of the world to spend more money and prepare for a war too.
A
Right.
B
So, so how can, how can Ben Besant be serious when he's providing over $3 trillion deficits that are being monetized? You can't sell bonds to that degree.
A
Yeah, well, I agree. Well, and even if he's, even if he is a serious person in that role, he, he must do unserious things. I mean.
B
Yeah, exactly. If I was Besant, I would, I would resign. In fact, who is the admiral, He's a black guy, I think, that was in charge of the Caribbean that resigned after or about the same time as.
A
They, they're blown off the boats.
B
Yeah, exactly. We didn't hear anything about why did he resign and who he was, but seems to me even if he was a diversity hire to start with, he did the right and ethical thing by, you know, resigning.
A
Yeah, yeah. I mean, if you, you know, if you can't participate in something that you feel like you're wrong. I mean, but I think most people just, you know, they get on the grift train and they're just going with it as far as they can. You know, the insiders always seem to be very well compensated for their efforts.
B
Yeah. Oh, yeah. If you go into government, into the higher levels, you expect to emerge a multi millionaire, not because of briefcases full of hundred dollar bills. That's not the way we do it. We do it with book contracts and.
A
Directorships and, well, now cryptocurrencies and board participation. Right, Corporate boards.
B
Yeah, yeah, stuff like that. Yeah, yeah. So what do you, what do you.
A
Think'S going to happen in Minnesota, though? Because, Right, because like, they've, they've, they've rushed since this thing, since the shooting occurred or this killing occurred. They've surged ice people into there. Like I said, there's like 2600 of them. Now you have the, the governor and mayor, you know, coming out, condemning him, telling him to get out. They're filing lawsuits about the legality of their actions in the, in the city. Like, how does this, it does seem like it's coming to a culmination of some kind. Like a, like it's going to, it's coming to a head there, you know, and I don't think the Trump administration is just gonna back down from it. Right. So, so how does this, how does this resolve itself? It doesn't seem like it just goes away.
B
I look at the bright side. The bright side is that it's winter. People don't really want to go outside in a, in a Minnesota winter and slippery. So you can't run after you've done something very well. So that, that kind of, you know, puts a little bit of a lid on things just right.
A
If this were the summer, you're right, it would be a much different scenario.
B
Yeah, I think so. Yeah. But how's it going to end? It seems like a lot of these anti ICE people are white females. And a case can be made that femininity and females generally are responsible for a lot of the bad things that are going on. They control the society. Most of the lawyers, most of the accountants, a lot of business executives, everybody's a female these, these days. And females tend to have these much more, much, much more than males, these soft, gushy, lefty ideas. So they're the wrong people.
A
Yeah. And they're held militantly militant.
B
Yes.
A
So it's like soft ideas held like ironclad, you know.
B
You know, well, the idea of families being washed away, generally speaking. But if you're going to have a family, it really helps to, for the female to stay at home and make food and guide the kids and stuff like that, as opposed to hire a Hispanic nanny to take care of them while you're off.
A
There's Somali daycares for this, Doug.
B
Of course. It all fits together, doesn't it?
A
It's crazy.
B
Go ahead.
A
I was just gonna say, I think, you know, when, when Trump, the Trump administration was sued for deploying National Guard, I think it was in Illinois and they lost the case. This is the Supreme Court. But, but Alito, Justice Alito said you can use these troops if you want. You just have to declare, you have to invoke the Insurrection act. Like he, he, he, he outlined how he could do what he was trying to do legally by invoking the Insurrection Act. So, you know, and you have something that's happening now, it's escalating this point in Minneapolis where it does feel very insurrection. Like, I mean, the people are getting, you know, they're getting, you know, more brazen in their, in, you know, their confrontation with ice. So what are the odds that he invokes it?
B
Hi. And I think it's interesting that the ICE guys that we saw in that, in those videos were kitted out in military esque egg uniforms. Cami and all the rest of this kind of stuff, it could easily be mistaken for soldiers. And I think my analogy of the ice being today's essay is a good one. And Trump, I suspect, is going to increase the size of ice for all kinds of reasons they'll come up with. But if it gets up to 100,000 militarized bad tempered lowlifes, they can be very dangerous and they're under the direct control of the President. He doesn't have to worry about the National Guard or the local police. If you've got 100,000 thugs that are dressed up to look like regular army guys, quite frankly.
A
Yeah. You know, the interesting thing about them always being masked, I found, I always found that interesting too, like why they do that, why they cover their faces.
B
Super disturbing and people let them get away with it. Yeah. What is this? This is something that, you know, happens in, in African and South American countries. Yeah, exactly. Why are these guys masked? Like, yeah, criminals.
A
And I, you know, and I know and I understand, like the, the desire, like I want them to remove the, the illegals that came in with Biden's invasion thing. Of course, our government financed all of that and handled the miracle of logistics required to make that occur was our government that did that. Like, I want them to use that logistics network in reverse and get them the hell out as much as anybody. But at the same time, you know, this method doesn't seem like it's. It seems like it's not as effective as it could be. I mean, we could turn off everyone's bank account. Like, we know we can do that. You, you think we could stop people from going through TSA with millions of dollars in briefcases? You know, there's so many things that could be done, and maybe they are starting to be done in the background, I don't know. But, you know, my, my big worry is I just always picture with Biden when he was doing that speech where he had that red backdrop and he had the two soldiers there, you know, this dark Biden, I think people referred to it. And he, and he referred to the, you know, white whatever, some, some group, a subset of white alternative people as terrorists. You know, he referred to, he put that label and he's got this very foreboding background. So that guy, imagine giving him this soon to be a hundred thousand group of enforcers that are trained in grabbing and bagging people. You know, it's not just that Trump using it to get out these illegals is one thing, but this institution is not going to Go away when that's resolved.
B
That's right. It's not just illegals, it's presumed terrorists. And if it's a presumed terrorist, you can do anything with them, including pull them off the street and grab them and bag them and keep them in communicado someplace. Yeah, the US Is going the wrong direction and I don't see Watkins turn it around at this point. Trump is not helping in that regard. I, he's helping in some regards, but he's making it worse in other regards. This being one of them.
A
Yeah, I'm worried about it. But, and by the way, they, they did label Christy Nome, labeled the, the female driver. I think her last name is good, ironically, as a domestic terrorist.
B
Well, Christy Nome is another one of Trump's people. That's was really dangerous, I think.
A
Yeah, clearly. I think so. If you, if you're, if you're labeling like certainly that, that woman, you say lots of bad things about her, honestly, because you know what, she's a paid agitator. You know, she, she came in from out of town to do all that. She's there. She's a troublemaker, a criminal. They probably mentally ill. A domestic terrorist.
B
No, I mean, I've got, no, I've got no sympathy for the silly. But on the other hand, I got no sympathy for the guy that shot her. I mean, he should be prosecuted for murder because as far as I'm concerned, it was. Well, part of it, of course, is he's just hyper aggressive and poorly trained. Pulling a gun on an unarmed female. That's.
A
I even just, even just walking in front of the car on the way to the driver's side to aid his partner, you know, while the car's in motion, he walking across the front of the car, like that's, that's like a, not a very intelligent thing to do. Mistake anyway.
B
That's, that's right. Who's, who's really to be blamed. Was the car already in motion when he walked in? I don't know.
A
It was in reverse. It was in reverse. It was in reverse. But yeah, it was in motion. But yeah, like I'm saying, if you, if the cops are trying to stop you and you and the car's in motion, I would, I expect to get shot by cops. I'm not saying he's right or wrong, but I, like, I, I would expect it.
B
That's right. These cops are all on hair trigger settings these days, quite frankly. That's no excuse, but that's the way it is. So stay out of the way, quite.
A
Frankly, stay out of their way. But these, but these left wing agitators who had. Seem to be funded and are, and seem to have some training too. If you watch the tactics of these groups, they have, you know, people who are making noise, being loud and shouting, and they're like in front of, and then there's a group behind them that kind of reaches in front of past them and will make physical contact with the ICE guys and like pull them forward and trying to help people that, you know, I mean, there's like tactics. People are trained, you know, it's not just like a, you know, random, you know, neighbors who are pissed off that are coming out because of what's happening. Like, there's a, like there's something very, there's some serious organized conflict here. You know, there's a lot of hate.
B
In the US these days and it's bubbling to the surface in this way. Maybe the same thing is happening in Iran right now. And, but I don't know how many of the Iranians support the regime for a number of different reasons. You could figure out why they'd support the regime. Maybe it'll be a civil war in Iran. US Loves getting involved in civil wars. All right, so they'll probably foment one in Venezuela too, where there's, you know, lots of different groups I'm sure that, you know, all want to get control of the apparatus of the state. So that's what civil wars are all about.
A
Yeah, I mean, well, Venezuela's what is set up for these colectivos. These people I mentioned before, they were like the street enforcers. They are like brown shirts, actually, legitimately. And you know, they wouldn't, they would be like a, a peaceful protest or whatever. They would go out and they would attack people, you know, you know, they would dress as plain clothes people and they would attack people. And they, they ride on like two people on a scooter, you know, and the guy riding shotgun in the back has got a, got an assault rifle. You know, these are just, these are just, these are just enforcers. So, yeah, they've got it pretty well dialed in for at least one side of a conflict.
B
Yeah, yeah. And of course you can say, well, you just round up all the criminals like Bukele has done in El Salvador. And I guess everything looks pretty good in El Salvador at this point because there's 60,000 or so hardcore criminals locked up in actual cages. I mean, they really are. You wouldn't put animals, quite frankly, in that kind of Close quarters. But wait a minute. How long can you keep these people locked up in cages? I mean, how many years can you do that?
A
Yeah, and they also did, you got to remember, they also exported. I mean people talk about all the Venezuelan criminals coming into the U.S. it's not the, the El Salvadorans, you know, there were a whole bunch of them. The Ms. 13 gang, you know, that was a big deal during Trump's first administration. You know, those are, those are Salvadorans.
B
Yes, that's absolutely right. And maybe they will be re exported back to El Salvador and create a Korea movement to overthrow the Bukele government. I mean there's all kinds. This is going to be a very chaos filled decade, I'm afraid.
A
Is there anything you're particularly worried about just as we wrap up here, Doug?
B
Well, one thing I'm not worried about is being down here in Argentina and Uruguay because it's peaceful, safe, likely to get better for lots of reasons. So I'm not worried about that for sure. What am I actually worried about? Well, listen, I prefer to worry about cosmic problems that doesn't make any sense because worrying about them doesn't solve them. So I increasingly adopt the attitude of a daoist, or if you wish, the western version of a daoist, I think is a stoic. And don't worry about things that you can't control. It's fun for us to talk about them but. And hopefully have a good influence in the process. But I don't worry about it too much. I guess I worry about losing a lot of money with the metals market, although I'm not really worried about that because we're in a bull market. But I'm not worried about that either. I mean this is all just material stuff. As long as you got three hats and a cot, you're okay.
A
That's right.
B
Frankly.
A
Yeah, yeah. No, it's what matters. I guess my biggest worry would be stuff relating to the financial system. You know, just that something. Financial crisis like occurs again, something like that, you know, but even that, all that makes me think is I should just own more physical gold, you know?
B
Yeah. And, and something will occur. Something very bad financially is bound to occur and actually something in the economy, not just in the financial system. I, I think it's inevitable. But I can wait. I'm not, I'm not trying to imminentize the eschaton in any way.
A
No, no, we'll keep the good times rolling for as long as possible.
B
Yeah. Yeah. Okay.
A
Well, we'll leave it there for today, Doug. And we'll be back in a couple days to do it again, and we'll get back to our normal routine after our little hiatus we had.
B
We love routines. We all love routines. Will there be questions from. From the audience?
A
Let's just say this. Yeah. If you're a file member especially, just ask the question either in file or on substack. Yeah. There's a group chat for paid subscribers. You can ask a question there, and I will make sure it gets asked to Doug on Friday, you know, otherwise, definitely comment the video. I do read all the comments, and I'll look through and see if I find any particularly interesting questions there that I can bring to you, too, Doug.
B
Great. Thanks, Matt.
A
All right. Thanks, Doug.
B
Bye. Bye.
Host: Matthew Smith
Guest: Doug Casey
Date: January 14, 2026
In this highly topical episode, host Matthew Smith catches up with Doug Casey—libertarian thinker, author, and renowned speculator—after a six-week break. The discussion quickly zeroes in on the volatility of current world events: political unrest, U.S. foreign policy maneuvers, the economic backdrop, and, most provocatively, the likelihood that President Trump will not finish his current term. Doug offers unfiltered analysis on domestic and global instability, using his trademark combination of speculative thinking, historical perspective, and dissident humor.
Doug's “30,000-foot view”:
Doug sees the pace of world events accelerating and stability eroding, echoing Lenin’s quote: “There are weeks when everything happens and years when nothing happens.”
Factors That Might End Trump's Term Prematurely:
Both host and guest enumerate the possibilities, from assassination to impeachment (25th Amendment), with Doug alluding to historical and even fictional scenarios.
Seamless State Continuity:
Doug downplays immediate chaos; he argues that institutions would persist largely undisturbed, though public shock would be immense.
JD Vance as Successor:
The co-host suggests Vance would bring “renewed energy,” and Doug likens the process to recent transitions in Venezuela.
Inside Scoop:
Doug relays insights from a weekly Zoom call with military and finance insiders. A visiting four-star general asserts that boots on the ground in Iran would be disastrous, but the U.S. is planning extensive airstrikes targeting leadership—which could unleash chaos (“Who’s going to take over next?”).
Doug’s Philosophical Stance:
He argues for complete U.S. withdrawal, though he admits U.S. intervention will likely continue.
Odds of Airstrikes on Iran:
Doug places an 80% likelihood on imminent U.S. airstrikes, citings Israel’s encouragement and Trump’s political incentives.
Massive Fraud and Federal Crackdown:
The hosts dissect the exposure of large-scale fraud connected to Somali-run daycare centers, cash smuggling, and law enforcement’s heavy-handed response—including a 2,600-agent ICE surge in Minneapolis.
Systemic Corruption:
The hosts reflect on the difficulty of “dismantling” entrenched government corruption—described by Doug as a Gordian knot.
Main Street vs. Wall Street:
Doug relays that top business insiders report no immediate “Greater Depression,” although he suspects “the little guy on the bottom really is getting hurt.”
Monetary Expansion and Corporate Incentives:
The hosts note big business benefits from money printing, while the indebted little guy struggles.
ICE Compared to Brownshirts:
Doug launches a scathing critique of ICE as “hyper-aggressive,” likening the agency to the historical SA (Sturmabteilung/Brownshirts), not the Gestapo—“the wrong type of person.”
Police Shootings and State Violence:
The hosts dissect recent shooting incidents, the legal double standards, and the danger of militarized federal law enforcement.
Worries on Militarization:
Potential for ICE to become a dangerous, quasi-military federal force under direct executive control:
Street Enforcers and U.S. Vulnerability:
U.S. left-wing “agitators” are said to be organized and trained, fomenting confrontation with federal agents, possibly paralleling the street-level armed colectivos in Venezuela.
Speculation on Civil Wars:
Doug foresees possible civil wars in Iran, Venezuela, and hints at similar processes brewing in the U.S.
Doug’s Worry List:
Living in Argentina/Uruguay, Doug expresses little personal concern for local instability and adopts an almost Daoist/stoic philosophy amid global uncertainty.
Market View:
No surprise: maintain exposure to physical gold as the ultimate hedge.
Doug on “fiction as reality”:
“Fiction is the best predictor of reality.” (01:54)
On Trump’s Prospects:
“I think I’ll take odds that Trump is not going to complete his term.” (00:33)
On U.S. Foreign Policy:
“We don’t have any business there. The best thing … is get the hell out of there.” (06:01)
Probability of U.S. Airstrikes on Iran:
“Let’s put it at 80% … And let’s hope that I have to eat my words …” (09:09)
On ICE:
“ICE is our new Gestapo. That’s not quite accurate … it’s more like the SA … bottom of the barrel Germans that liked dressing up in uniforms and being bully boys.” (21:05)
On Civil Strife:
“There’s a lot of hate in the US these days and it’s bubbling to the surface in this way. Maybe the same thing is happening in Iran right now.” (38:02)
Casey’s Stoicism:
“I increasingly adopt the attitude of a Daoist or … a Stoic. And don’t worry about things that you can’t control.” (41:54)
True to form, Doug Casey’s commentary is direct, controversial, and wryly humorous. The conversation flows with references to history, pop culture, speculation, and a heavy dose of skepticism toward all forms of authority.