Drop Site News: "Iran War Enters New Phase"

Date: March 24, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Grim, Jeremy Scahill, Murtaza Hussain
Guests: Alexis Delumis (reporting from Kurdish Iraq), Dr. Trita Parsi (Quincy Institute), Sharif Abdel Kouddous

Episode Overview

This episode delivers an in-depth, ground-level analysis of the evolving U.S./Israel-Iran war, centering on recent attempted negotiations, military escalations, the information war surrounding a rumored Kurdish uprising, the implications for U.S. and regional credibility, and humanitarian reporting from both Kurdish Iraq and embargoed Cuba. It ends with a powerful remembrance of slain Gaza journalist Hossam Shabat. The tone throughout is skeptical of U.S. official narratives and critical of both strategic decision-making and mainstream media coverage.

Key Segments and Insights

1. Status of U.S.–Iran Negotiations and War Trajectory (00:00 – 18:55)

• Negotiations Backchannel Drama ([01:25 – 10:46])

  • Steve Witkoff’s Unreciprocated Overtures:
    • Real estate developer Steve Witkoff was reportedly in Islamabad hoping to broker talks with Iran.
    • White House officials claimed Iran was "begging" for talks; Iranian officials and Drop Site sources refuted this, calling it "fantasy land."
    • Ryan Grim: “No indication that the Iranians are willing to actually sit down with him... for now just twiddling his thumbs up in Islamabad.” (01:57)
  • Tensions and Mixed Messaging:
    • Trump alternated between threatening Iran with attacks (“if they don’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, I’m going to bomb the electrical and power grids...”) and claiming negotiation breakthroughs.
    • Jeremy Scahill: “All of what we’ve seen in the past 24 hours reeks of some kind of plot… we've seen this so many times.” (15:34, [quoting Israeli/US spin cycles])
    • Iranian demands for a ceasefire are broad, including regional guarantees, reparations, lifting sanctions, and ballistic missile development off the table.
    • Third countries (Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey) are competing to host possible talks, but as of the episode, Iran is not responding.

• Iran’s Calculus and Strategic Patience ([10:46 – 15:34])

  • Iran views the current moment as a culmination of a 47-year conflict.
  • Since the previous (June 2025) war and US/Israeli bombings, Iran’s national security apparatus has shifted from calibrated proportional responses to open regional escalation.
  • All "flexible" Iranian political leaders have been killed, reinforcing the idea that only force is respected by the U.S. and Israel.

• U.S. Assassination Policy and Its Backfire

  • Trump administration reportedly following an Israeli-style approach: assassinating political figures in hopes that a more favorable leader will emerge.
  • Scahill: “If out of nowhere, Witkoff was assassinated by the Iranians in Islamabad... the world would almost collapse with rage... yet the Trump administration has said... their game plan is to assassinate as many political figures as they possibly can until one emerges they like...” (14:17)

2. Kurdish Iraq Field Report: Myths and Realities of a "Kurdish Uprising" (18:57 – 38:33)

• Debunking Western Media "Uprising" Claims ([20:03 – 26:40])

  • Alexis Delumis, on the ground in Suleimaniya, clarifies there is little appetite for opening a Kurdish front against Iran.
  • Western media, using Israeli sourcing, erroneously reported an imminent Kurdish incursion into Iran; Drop Site was among the first to debunk it.
  • Delumis: “There is a lot of psyop going on in all this process... a domino of, let’s be generous and say, inaccurate reports that suggested the invasion of Iran had already started.” (21:03, 24:34)

• Internal Kurdish Divide and Reluctance ([26:42 – 33:20])

  • Kurdistan region is divided: KDP (Barzanis, west/Erbil) and PUK (Talabanis, east/Suleimaniya) with different views and allegiances.
  • Even among militant parties, appetite for armed uprising is minimal; historical betrayals by U.S. and regional states have fostered deep mistrust.
  • “The Kurds can see the cheese but they can also see the mousetrap.” (27:19) – Even the most pro-Israel Kurdish factions see the risks outweighing potential gains.

• Local Impact and Turbulence ([33:49 – 36:56])

  • Recent heavy bombings in Erbil (KDP territory), less so in Suleimaniya (PUK), due to differing relationships with Tehran and relative U.S. presence.
  • PUK’s historical ties to Iran mean less hostility in their territory, but everyone is wary; U.S. air defenses are strained, facing new drone threats.
  • Delumis confirms: rumors of imminent uprisings are used more as psychological pressure than reflection of reality.

3. U.S. Credibility, Betrayal, and Foreign Policy Breakdown (38:33 – 47:45)

• Betraying Allies:

  • U.S. pattern of inviting negotiations, then assassinating counterparts, has hollowed out credibility with both foes and allies (notably the Kurds).
  • Hussain: “At some point, you do enough red weddings, people stop coming to your wedding invites.” (39:17)
  • U.S. coercion (e.g., threats to Kurdish leaders) increasingly yields refusals and exposes declining American power.

• Strategic Drift and Lack of Planning:

  • U.S. actions in Iran and with Kurds described as “building the plane while flying it.”
  • Hussain: "I don’t even know what the US really wants in the situation. What is the US goal in Iran? ... There’s not really a plan... there’s a lot of improvisation.” (41:54, 47:45)

4. Exclusive Interview: Dr. Trita Parsi on Energy, Sanctions, and War Endgames (49:33 – 67:36)

• Trump’s Erratic Escalation and De Facto Sanctions Relief ([50:36 – 55:59])

  • Trump’s threats often flounder, with real risk of regional energy catastrophe. Each escalation risks massive retaliatory attacks on Gulf infrastructure.
  • War has unexpectedly benefited Iran economically:
    • Pre-war: <1.1M barrels/day at $65 minus an $18 “sanctions discount.”
    • Post-escalation: 1.5M barrels/day at ~$110 market price, only $2–4 cut.
    • "Trump in Israel's war has ended up delivering Iran de facto sanctions relief." — Parsi (54:00)
  • Payments now bypass the UAE altogether, further undermining Western leverage.

• Strait of Hormuz and Leverage ([55:59 – 63:00])

  • If the U.S. ends the war with Iran still controlling the Strait, it constitutes a strategic win for Iran and elevates its global leverage.
  • Iran aims for a settlement that ensures deterrence and sanctions relief—otherwise, they risk perpetual vulnerability to renewed attack.
  • Parsi: “If they end up back in the previous status quo… all that does is ensure that the US and Israel will strike again. So they absolutely need that sanctions relief as part of their deterrence.”

• Internal Iranian Sentiment and U.S. Domestic Politics

  • Parsi believes Trump can still sell a “victory” if he ends the war soon, but the window is closing rapidly as both war costs and humiliation mount.
  • "If this goes on a couple more weeks, I fear that he will lose that ability and once he’s lost that ability, then his incentive structures are completely different.” — Parsi (62:00)

• Regional Fallout: GCC Relations and Escalation ([63:00 – 67:36])

  • Gulf states, notably the UAE, have issued harsh anti-Iran statements and are considering direct confrontation; internal divisions may grow.
  • Parsi warns: if the postwar situation isn’t stabilized, it could result in disastrous ongoing instability and further fragmentation of the region.

5. Reporting from Cuba Under Blockade (72:24 – 88:33)

• Humanitarian Crisis Unfolding

  • Ryan Grim returns from reporting in Cuba, describes severe energy crisis under U.S. blockade:
    • Repeated nationwide blackouts, hospital generators straining, nurses hand-pumping ventilators for newborns during outages.
    • Medical infrastructure outdated, a result of embargo and inability to import parts.

• Media Distraction and U.S. Policy Aims

  • U.S. media coverage focused on visiting "content creators" rather than the humanitarian disaster.
  • U.S. policy seen as engineered to force governmental collapse in Cuba; suffering is mounting, population declining as people emigrate.
  • “We’re making content right here, right Maz... there's this horrifying blockade happening, people are dying... and it's being reduced to this sort of media culture war issue" — Grim and Hussain (72:24)

• No Clear Endgame

  • No viable plan for resistance or opposition emerges; situation described as "dystopian but not stable."
  • “It’s just no way to live... they can barely keep the hospitals powered” — Grim (83:08–87:37)

6. Memorial: Hossam Shabat, Gaza Journalist Assassinated by Israel (88:33 – 105:41)

• Profile in Courage and Tragedy
  • Marking one year since Shabat’s killing by Israeli drone; he stayed reporting in northern Gaza through constant attack and direct threats.
  • Israel’s progression: from denials to open hitlists of journalists; killing often followed by public bragging and unsubstantiated terrorist smears.
  • “Can you imagine there’s airstrikes falling all around. You don’t know which one is coming for you. And to somehow maintain the strength and the ability to continue to report every day is really incomprehensible.” — Sharif Abdel Kouddous (93:53)
  • Shabat’s posthumous letter: “Do not stop speaking about Gaza. Do not let the world look away, keep fighting, keep telling our stories until Palestine is free.”
  • Media critique: Western press outlets have equivocated or minimized these killings, enabling impunity for Israel’s actions.
  • “We know that... legacy media outlets can, can be outraged... but when it comes to these Palestinian journalists in Gaza... they’re given that kind of weight... he said, she said thing.” — Abdel Kouddous (103:00)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Trump... embracing his identity as kind of the mad king, like a scene from King Lear…” — Jeremy Scahill, (03:34)
• “The Kurds can see the cheese but they can also see the mousetrap.” — Alexis Delumis, (27:19)
• “At some point, you do enough red Weddings, people stop coming to your... wedding invites.” — Murtaza Hussain, (39:17)
• “All of what we’ve seen the past 24 hours reeks of some kind of plot.” — Scahill, (15:34)
• “Trump in Israel's war has ended up delivering Iran de facto sanctions relief.” — Trita Parsi, (54:00)
• “If they end up back in the previous status quo... all that does is ensure that the US and Israel will strike again.” — Parsi, (57:00)
• “It’s just no way to live... they can barely keep the hospitals powered.” — Ryan Grim, (83:08–87:37)
• “Do not stop speaking about Gaza. Do not let the world look away...” — Hossam Shabat’s final words, read by Sharif Abdel Kouddous, (94:30)

Contributions & Attributions

• Ryan Grim: Host, on-the-ground Cuban reporting, U.S. policy critique.
• Jeremy Scahill: Iran negotiations/backchannel reporting, strategic analysis.
• Murtaza Hussain: U.S. foreign policy criticism, Kurdish and regional analysis.
• Alexis Delumis: Field report from Kurdish region, debunking uprising myths.
• Dr. Trita Parsi: Sanctions & energy expert, U.S.-Iran war endgames, regional fallout.
• Sharif Abdel Kouddous: Tribute to Hossam Shabat, critique of media coverage in Gaza.

Rich in narrative detail, explicit about shifting strategic dynamics, and unsparing in its critique of both U.S. actions and media complicity, this episode is a must-listen for anyone seeking a critical, independent account of the latest phase of the Iran war.