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A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Farmers are wary of the opening milk price forecast. Fonterra's latest financial update puts the current season's midpoint payout forecast at $9.70. It's up slightly next season at $9.75, but signals it could end up as low as $8 or as high as $11, depending on global events. Federated Farmers Dairy Chair Karl Dean told Andrew Dickens farmers are optimistic, but cautious of the range. He says Fonterra's taking the easy route with the low point, but they've warned farmers of that. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mixed feelings over the Government’s shift from university study toward trades training. The Budget doubles Trades Academy places to 20,000 over four years, giving more secondary students access to vocational training while at school. It's being funded by scrapping Fees Free. Canterbury's Darfield High School Principal Andy England told Andrew Dickens students who were undecided about university will feel the impact of losing the scheme. But he says for many years we've been gearing school for those going to university and has advocated for this to be rebalanced. England says Trades Academies work well at senior year levels, when student want to try out polytechs or trades while staying in school. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Finance Minister has praised the direction of the Budget, but says there are some “heroic assumptions” about getting back to surplus in 2028/29. It comes sooner than previously forecast, the date based on the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC. Ruth Richardson told Andrew Dickens that the economy is resting on the shifting sands of what may happen in the Middle East, so we shouldn’t be banking it as a surplus slam dunk. “Debt continues to rise, the operating allowance continues to rise, numbers can change, there are a lot of heroic assumptions in those numbers, and it's all on a promise that while they're spending for now, we will have savings later,” Richardson said. She also warned if Superannuation was not addressed it would “monster” the Budget. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Budget is out, and the Government’s done what it can with the pickle we’re in. Put simply, we don’t collect enough tax to pay for the services we run and the people we employ. There are only two fixes: either collect more tax — the left’s answer, though the last left Government didn’t have the guts to raise taxes, even while increasing spending. Or cut services and staff — which is this Government’s preference. But cuts hit confidence. When the private sector loses heart, tax revenue drops even further. And remember: Government is only 40% of the economy. Our real future depends on the private sector — the 60% where most taxpayers actually live. So they’re walking a tightrope. And honestly, this Budget is probably as balanced as they could make it. Some argue we should slash everything until the books balance. But the last two years of “austerity-lite” showed that deep cuts push the private sector into an even deeper funk. The good news? Treasury is forecasting $10.8 billion more in tax revenue over the next five years — without raising taxes. Spending is still rising, but because it’s not keeping pace with inflation, it’s effectively a real-terms cut. So bit by bit, we’re inching toward a healthier position. The only other option is raising taxes — and even Chris Hipkins couldn’t vote for that last election. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Friday 29 May. Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The ACT Party is defending voting in favour of homeschooling legislation before it was scrapped after pushback from families. The amendments announced last week would've increased checks on children taught at home. Education Minister Erica Stanford now concedes homeschooling is more complex than first thought. ACT's Laura McClure told Ryan Bridge they were rushed into voting for it. She says they didn't have a lot of time to consider the changes and how they would've worked, and whether the homeschooling community was given enough of a say. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the window for low mortgage rates has closed, with multiple Official Cash Rate hikes expected later this year following the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the rate at 2.25% yesterday. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement said Official Cash Rate (OCR) increases would likely be required this year, predicting inflation would peak at 4.3% in the September quarter before returning to 2% mid-2027. Tuffley told Ryan Bridge people had been fixing their mortgages at higher interest rates since it became clear that there would be no further cuts to the OCR and it would soon start increasing. The Monetary Policy Committee was predicting the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages would climb to 5.3% over the next year, up from 4.9% in March. Tuffley said that increase was “not too dramatic” although the impacts would show up slowly. “Your window for a low mortgage ... really did slam shut late last year, and unfortunately we’ve already seen rates that have climbed to some degree and that will continue.” LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Very few frills or surprises are expected to be in today’s Budget. Auckland Business Chamber CEO Simon Bridges predicts a “sensible, prudent, boring, Presbyterian” Budget, with only a few goodies coming from reprioritised spending. He told Ryan Bridge he was more interested in the "nuggets" that pointed to the Government's future policy direction. He wanted Finance Minister Nicola Willis to “stake some strong positions, defend them and stick with them”, with details on how the Government planned to lift innovation, productivity and growth. Bridges believed most people understood restraint was required, but said he wanted to see evidence the Government knew the difference between “frittering” on large social projects and “real investment” that would grow the economy. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Budget is always a fizzer in the sense that most of it is announced days in advance. There are a few sweeteners on the day, but this time, unless there's a rabbit about to be yanked from a hat, even they might be more Werther's Original than chocolate cake. The best time to read about the Budget is always the following Monday – that's when you get the real juice. All the cuts that pundits missed on the day become clear once the dust has settled. This Budget is one of many that's seen Nicola Willis spending more than Grant Robertson did. The surplus has been pushed out more times than you can shake a stick at. It's meant to be 2030. Nicola has no choice but to honour that. What she should do is come out today and tell us we're going to get there early, otherwise what has all 'cutting', relative term by the way, been for? Capital spending will be the aim of the game. Not all spending is bad, of course, handouts and made-up ministries? Not great. Roads and hospitals? Good. We're up over 40% of debt to GDP, and many people argue we can and should spend more. And yes, we can, and yes, we probably should. Not on day-to-day stuff – that's dumb. We are not America. We are not Europe. We don't have huge domestic demand and are quite prone to earthquakes and weather events. Any spending we do must be careful and calculated because let's be honest, our economy is more fragile to shocks, both at home and abroad. Which is why the surplus keeps getting pushed out. Which is why we need to unshackle ourselves from a structural deficit, and the sooner we can do that, the better off we'll be. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Thursday 28 May. Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.