2026 Stock Market Predictions: AI, Political Risk & Global Conflict

Summary

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Earn Your Leisure Podcast

Episode: 2026 Stock Market Predictions: AI, Political Risk & Global Conflict
Date: January 11, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Guest Contributors: Ed Helms, Cam Jordan, Kalpen (Kal Penn)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the hosts’ and contributors’ predictions for the 2026 stock market, focusing on the interplay between artificial intelligence (AI), political risk due to U.S. elections, and global conflicts. The conversation also touches on sector rotations, leadership transitions at major companies, and the ongoing transformation of business and investing in a volatile global landscape.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2026 Market Performance Predictions

• Strong Start, Cautious Optimism:
  Ed Helms forecasts an “absolutely amazing” first half, with key indices reaching new highs (Bitcoin “52,000, SPY at 749”) but warns of a possible mid-year drop due to geopolitical volatility.

  • Quote: “The first half of the year will be absolutely amazing. … I’m worried about a mid-year drop and how some of this geopolitical stuff will shake and rattle the market.” (Ed Helms, 03:48)

• The “First Five Days” Trading Theory:
  Kalpen explains the market superstition that if the first five trading days are positive, odds are good for the rest of the year—a trend holding so far in 2026.

  • Quote: “The theory is…85% of the time, depending on how the first five days of the trading year go for the S&P…this year has gone positive.” (Kalpen, 06:04)

• Sector Winners & Losers:
  AI is still considered the dominant narrative, but the hosts highlight vulnerabilities among legacy software and underperforming S&P 500 firms.

  • Ed Helms critiques underperformance at Disney and warns of “AI eating software, what happens to the bottom 40 of software companies...?” (04:52)

2. Geopolitical Events & Market Impact

• Commodities Signaling Risk:
  With “copper, gold, and silver are all hitting highs,” Ed Helms suggests something must give as risk-on assets transition between commodities, tech, and crypto.

  • Quote: “If people are risk on commodities and now risk on is coming back in tech and crypto, something’s going to have to break.” (Ed Helms, 04:20)

• U.S. Politics—2026 Midterms and Administration Changes:
  The discussion pivots to potential political shakeups:

  • If Democrats have a “blue wave,” there could be short-term market downside.
  • If Republicans hold Congress, expectation is a market positive, especially for business interests.
  • Quote: “If the Democrats really do have a blue wave, then that’s going to be, in the short term, negative for the stock market.” (Cam Jordan, 11:18)

• Global Conflict & Market Resilience:
  Contributors note that recent wars have produced only minor, temporary setbacks for the markets, shifting the traditional risk paradigm.

  • Quote: “Maybe a slight pullback and then things are back to normal in the market, which is interesting.” (Kalpen, 09:49)

• International Risk Hotspots:
  Trump’s foreign policy moves in Venezuela, Nigeria, Colombia, and ongoing issues with Taiwan are highlighted as risks to watch.

  • Quote: “I’m really worried about what Trump would do in Nigeria, Colombia… after this Venezuela plan worked out in his favor.” (Ed Helms, 05:33)

3. Corporate Leadership & “American Excellence”

• Call for Executive Succession:
  Ed Helms calls out Bob Iger (Disney) and Tim Cook (Apple), urging both to implement real succession plans and for new leadership direction, suggesting stagnation and lack of innovation.
  • Quote: “It’s time for you to turn in your succession plan too. Disney’s been flat for three years.” (Ed Helms, 05:07)

4. Political Narratives & Media Manipulation

• Impact of Media and Algorithms:
  Cam Jordan references a scandal with Somali daycare in Minnesota, alleging political algorithmic manipulation by Elon Musk, implying media and tech platforms are leveraged for political advantage.

  • Quote: “When you control algorithm, you can do whatever you want... This is a political pit job executed very well.” (Cam Jordan, 11:45)

• Double Standards & Public Trust:
  Discussion of selective outrage/fraud, corporate bailouts, and shifting government definitions highlights skepticism about consistent policy and media narratives.

  • Quote: “They bring up that fraud, but not all the other fraud that’s being committed that benefits them. Allegedly.” (Ed Helms, 12:52)

5. Market Targets & Tactical Forecasts

• Expected Returns:
  Contributors anticipate another positive year, with projected gains upwards of 13%, though with caution related to political turnover.

  • Quote: “Very rare for the stock market to go up four years in a row, double digits, but anything is possible.” (Cam Jordan, 10:58)
  • Quote: “I think, I think 13 is where we’re coming at.” (Ed Helms, 10:56)

• Sector Rotation and Risk:
  Focus remains on monitoring which industries might fall out of political favor, and how AI could redefine the software landscape, potentially crushing smaller firms (“what happens to the bottom 40...” Ed Helms, 04:52).

6. Strategy and Brand Lessons

• Draw the Line—All Or Nothing:
  The group agrees that 2026 is a year organizations and politicians must commit fully to a direction, rather than playing to the middle.
  • Quote: “You cannot play it safe in 2026. You gotta go all or nothing.” (Cam Jordan, 15:15; echoed by Ed Helms, 15:18)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|-------------|-------| | 03:48 | Ed Helms | “The first half of the year will be absolutely amazing. … I’m worried about a mid-year drop and how some of this geopolitical stuff will shake and rattle the market.” | | 04:52 | Ed Helms | “AI eats software, what happens to the bottom 40 of software companies that are no longer as useful or can’t carry a premium…” | | 05:07 | Ed Helms | “It’s time for you to turn in your succession plan too. Disney’s been flat for three years.” | | 06:04 | Kalpen | “The theory is...85% of the time, depending on how the first five days of the trading year go for the S&P...this year has gone positive.” | | 09:49 | Kalpen | “Maybe a slight pullback and then things are back to normal in the market, which is interesting.” | | 11:18 | Cam Jordan | “If the Democrats really do have a blue wave, then that’s going to be, in the short term, negative for the stock market.” | | 11:45 | Cam Jordan | “When you control algorithm, you can do whatever you want… This is a political pit job executed very well.” | | 12:52 | Ed Helms | “They bring up that fraud, but not all the other fraud that’s being committed that benefits them. Allegedly.” | | 10:58 | Cam Jordan | “Very rare for the stock market to go up four years in a row, double digits, but anything is possible.” | | 10:56 | Ed Helms | “I think, I think 13 is where we’re coming at.” | | 15:15 | Cam Jordan | “You cannot play it safe in 2026. You gotta go all or nothing.” |

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:44: Main segment begins—Initial market predictions for 2026.
• 04:20: Commodities and sector rotation discussion.
• 05:07: Corporate leadership succession critique.
• 06:04: Discussion on the “first five days” market theory.
• 09:49: Market reactions to war/conflict.
• 10:44: Annual market return forecasts.
• 11:18: Political risk and effects on the market.
• 11:45: Media manipulation and Minnesota daycare story.
• 12:52: Broader discussion on fraud and double standards.
• 15:15: Strategic advice—commit to bold moves in 2026.

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Tone and Language

The episode balances financial analysis with candid, sometimes irreverent banter. The hosts do not shy away from controversial opinions about political maneuvering, executive leadership, and trend speculation—offering blunt takes and using humor to keep the discussion engaging.

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Summary Takeaways

• Expect continued growth in 2026, but volatility is likely, especially as political and global events unfold.
• AI remains the leading narrative, but sector shakeouts are inevitable.
• Political cycles and party control will shape short-term market outcomes.
• Media manipulation and algorithmic influence have tangible impacts on both perception and the market.
• Successful players, in politics and business, in 2026 will need to commit boldly rather than play to the middle.

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Transcript

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[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

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[Cam Jordan]

Okay, Overall predictions for 2026, I think.

[Ed Helms]

The first half of the year will be absolutely amazing. I have doubt ended up at 52,000, spy at 749. Couple of concerns though. Midterm fallout one, I'm worried about a mid year drop and how some of this geopolitical stuff will shake and rattle the market. I alluded to it earlier but I bring it up again now. Copper, gold and silver are all hidden highs and they're supposed to be offsetting each other. Which means if people are risk on commodities and now risk on is coming back in tech and crypto, something's going to have to break. So you're going to have to follow the administration closely to see where those cracks could be. And I'll be looking at who falls out of favor with him and what industry they're in to see what will fall first. Lastly, I don't think that the AI trade is over, but we have to be very honest about some of these companies like Adobe, maybe Salesforce. There are some companies in the Russell 2000s and P500 endowed that are just getting flat out murdered and there isn't anything to come in to fix those companies. And I'm worried about if AI like software eats the world, but AI eats software, what happens to the bottom 40 of software companies that are no longer as useful or can't carry a premium and we don't have American excellence in terms of our executive leadership by Iger. It's time for you to turn in your succession plan too. Disney's been flat for three years.

[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

Everybody getting shots.

[Ed Helms]

I'm here to keep it real. They said they want the old energy back. I'm just being real. Tim Cook, it's time for you to step down. You go over to Nike, you already got your off boarding plan but Bob, it's time for you to turn over and let them be co CEO and let that be that and then the geopolitical risk we talked about earlier with Taiwan. But I'm really worried about what Trump would do in Nigeria, Colombia and a couple other countries after this Venezuela plan worked out in his favor.

[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

It's interesting. I think we'll have another positive year. We always do this the historic first five days of the trading year. So yeah, we've done two already and the theory is, and it's, I mean 85 of the time has been correct depending on how the first five days of the trading gear go for the S P. Whether those first five days cumulative are positive, 85 of the time this year has gone positive. So we're off to two positive days. Let's see if we can get to to three more and that would be great. It came to fruition last year as well. So we can add to that percentage. I just think, you know, there were times when war would mean volatility in the market and over the past, I don't know, it's very weird. The past two or three years. Well, the holidays have come and gone once again.

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[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

Say war conflict. We've seen like maybe a slight pullback and then things are back to normal in the market, which is interesting. I think there's going to be more conflict for sure. And I'm, I'm interested to see how, how the market responds to that because like you said, people are going to say, all right, well this is an opportunity to, to make money in some of these places. I think the AI story is definitely still prominent. I think it still leads. But I am that that if we're going by that first five day year and we're Going by that, that theory, then we also have to look at the midterm election theory and if roles change in, in Congress, how that could potentially affect the market. It usually has, but I, overall, I think we have a positive year. I don't know if we'd, I want to say double digits. I want to say, yeah, I think.

[Ed Helms]

We end up 13%.

[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

Yeah, I think it's double digits. Yeah, I know NASDAQ did 20 again this year for the third year in a row. I don't know if we're there, but definitely over somewhere over 10.

[Ed Helms]

Yeah, I think, I think 13 is where we're coming at.

[Cam Jordan]

Yeah. Very rare for the stock market to go up four years in a row, double digits, but anything is possible. But also the political risk, I think, is a lot of domestic, a lot of domestic political risk that can impact the market. I think if the Democrats really do have a blue wave, then that's going to be, in the short term, negative for the stock market. Now they're already making attempts to undermine, to undermine Democratic wave. And you saw that happen in Minnesota with the Somali daycare situation. This, this thing was pushed on Twitter by Elon Musk. When you control algorithm, you can do whatever you want. And there's no coincidence that the governor stepped down today. It was, it was, it's a political wolf. Yeah. Stepped. Well, he's not gonna be relevant. He stepped down as far. He's not gonna run for real. This is a political pit job executed very well. So they're not going down without a fight. As far as Republicans are not gonna go down without a fight. They control pretty much every industry right now and they're very well resourced. So MAGA 2.0, you may, you may, you may not see the blue wave that you think you will see. I think if the Republicans keep the House in the Senate, that's going to be good for the stock market in the short term. I think if the Democrats take, take the House and Senate, that's going to have a negative impact on it, on the stock market for the short term.

[Ed Helms]

I agree. Yeah. The 13% probably dropped to 9. If that changes. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

Let's, let's see.

[Cam Jordan]

I don't know. Who knows Somali daycare. Who would have thought the Somali, a Somali daycare would be the number one story in the world?

[Ed Helms]

It's crazy. They bring up that fraud, but not all the other fraud that's being committed that benefits them. Allegedly.

[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

All alleged. Right. It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous.

[Cam Jordan]

There's a few other Daycares for sure. It's a few other that need to be talked about.

[Ed Helms]

If you all want to go.

[Cam Jordan]

If you really.

[Ed Helms]

If.

[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

Let's listen.

[Ed Helms]

Couple hotel chains allegedly that are not publicly traded ever.

[Cam Jordan]

So government subsidies.

[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

What do we know?

[Ed Helms]

Corporate bailouts. I feel like Bernie Sanders.

[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

Like what.

[Ed Helms]

Not saying it is right. But boy, the packages y' all get on the back.

[Maria Hinojosa]

What?

[Ed Helms]

Okay. Y' all stop the non farm payroll. Yo, y' all change. I mean Biden changed the definition of recession. Like what do we. What? Okay, okay.

[Cam Jordan]

But Democrats. Yeah, I gotta. I gotta do something.

[Ed Helms]

Because implies ain't the answer this time either. Not to cut you off. Ain't the answer. Y' all need to go get some other p. Shout to Meg and Clay. Meg not the answer. Y' all gonna have to bring some real solutions this time. We're not gonna read that.

[Cam Jordan]

And. And the reason why I think the Democrat if they do win, it's going to have at least a short term effect on the market is because I feel like the Democrats only hope is to turn extremely to the left. This is why Mandani is the mayor of New York City. You got it. And that's going to cause shockwaves in the market if you have a wave of socialism that takes over. But that would actually be intelligent because they playing it too safe right now. They playing it too much in the middle. One foot in, one foot out. Mandani, he broke every rule possible. He broke every rule possible. Said if Netanyahu comes to New York City, he's getting arrested on site and he got more Jewish votes than any other mayor. And. And they got Eric Adams talking about he. He moved. I think he moved to Israel if I'm not mistaken. He should. But I'm just saying, like you. You playing it safe and you still losing. So. Yep, you cannot play it safe in 2026. You gotta go.

[Ed Helms]

Good brand lesson.

[Cam Jordan]

All or nothing.

[Ed Helms]

Yep. There's no in between.

[Kalpen (Kal Penn)]

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