Earn Your Leisure Podcast

Episode: 2026 Stock Market Predictions: AI, Political Risk & Global Conflict
Date: January 11, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Guest Contributors: Ed Helms, Cam Jordan, Kalpen (Kal Penn)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the hosts’ and contributors’ predictions for the 2026 stock market, focusing on the interplay between artificial intelligence (AI), political risk due to U.S. elections, and global conflicts. The conversation also touches on sector rotations, leadership transitions at major companies, and the ongoing transformation of business and investing in a volatile global landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2026 Market Performance Predictions

• Strong Start, Cautious Optimism:
  Ed Helms forecasts an “absolutely amazing” first half, with key indices reaching new highs (Bitcoin “52,000, SPY at 749”) but warns of a possible mid-year drop due to geopolitical volatility.

  • Quote: “The first half of the year will be absolutely amazing. … I’m worried about a mid-year drop and how some of this geopolitical stuff will shake and rattle the market.” (Ed Helms, 03:48)

• The “First Five Days” Trading Theory:
  Kalpen explains the market superstition that if the first five trading days are positive, odds are good for the rest of the year—a trend holding so far in 2026.

  • Quote: “The theory is…85% of the time, depending on how the first five days of the trading year go for the S&P…this year has gone positive.” (Kalpen, 06:04)

• Sector Winners & Losers:
  AI is still considered the dominant narrative, but the hosts highlight vulnerabilities among legacy software and underperforming S&P 500 firms.

  • Ed Helms critiques underperformance at Disney and warns of “AI eating software, what happens to the bottom 40 of software companies...?” (04:52)

2. Geopolitical Events & Market Impact

• Commodities Signaling Risk:
  With “copper, gold, and silver are all hitting highs,” Ed Helms suggests something must give as risk-on assets transition between commodities, tech, and crypto.

  • Quote: “If people are risk on commodities and now risk on is coming back in tech and crypto, something’s going to have to break.” (Ed Helms, 04:20)

• U.S. Politics—2026 Midterms and Administration Changes:
  The discussion pivots to potential political shakeups:

  • If Democrats have a “blue wave,” there could be short-term market downside.
  • If Republicans hold Congress, expectation is a market positive, especially for business interests.
  • Quote: “If the Democrats really do have a blue wave, then that’s going to be, in the short term, negative for the stock market.” (Cam Jordan, 11:18)

• Global Conflict & Market Resilience:
  Contributors note that recent wars have produced only minor, temporary setbacks for the markets, shifting the traditional risk paradigm.

  • Quote: “Maybe a slight pullback and then things are back to normal in the market, which is interesting.” (Kalpen, 09:49)

• International Risk Hotspots:
  Trump’s foreign policy moves in Venezuela, Nigeria, Colombia, and ongoing issues with Taiwan are highlighted as risks to watch.

  • Quote: “I’m really worried about what Trump would do in Nigeria, Colombia… after this Venezuela plan worked out in his favor.” (Ed Helms, 05:33)

3. Corporate Leadership & “American Excellence”

• Call for Executive Succession:
  Ed Helms calls out Bob Iger (Disney) and Tim Cook (Apple), urging both to implement real succession plans and for new leadership direction, suggesting stagnation and lack of innovation.
  • Quote: “It’s time for you to turn in your succession plan too. Disney’s been flat for three years.” (Ed Helms, 05:07)

4. Political Narratives & Media Manipulation

• Impact of Media and Algorithms:
  Cam Jordan references a scandal with Somali daycare in Minnesota, alleging political algorithmic manipulation by Elon Musk, implying media and tech platforms are leveraged for political advantage.

  • Quote: “When you control algorithm, you can do whatever you want... This is a political pit job executed very well.” (Cam Jordan, 11:45)

• Double Standards & Public Trust:
  Discussion of selective outrage/fraud, corporate bailouts, and shifting government definitions highlights skepticism about consistent policy and media narratives.

  • Quote: “They bring up that fraud, but not all the other fraud that’s being committed that benefits them. Allegedly.” (Ed Helms, 12:52)

5. Market Targets & Tactical Forecasts

• Expected Returns:
  Contributors anticipate another positive year, with projected gains upwards of 13%, though with caution related to political turnover.

  • Quote: “Very rare for the stock market to go up four years in a row, double digits, but anything is possible.” (Cam Jordan, 10:58)
  • Quote: “I think, I think 13 is where we’re coming at.” (Ed Helms, 10:56)

• Sector Rotation and Risk:
  Focus remains on monitoring which industries might fall out of political favor, and how AI could redefine the software landscape, potentially crushing smaller firms (“what happens to the bottom 40...” Ed Helms, 04:52).

6. Strategy and Brand Lessons

• Draw the Line—All Or Nothing:
  The group agrees that 2026 is a year organizations and politicians must commit fully to a direction, rather than playing to the middle.
  • Quote: “You cannot play it safe in 2026. You gotta go all or nothing.” (Cam Jordan, 15:15; echoed by Ed Helms, 15:18)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|-------------|-------| | 03:48 | Ed Helms | “The first half of the year will be absolutely amazing. … I’m worried about a mid-year drop and how some of this geopolitical stuff will shake and rattle the market.” | | 04:52 | Ed Helms | “AI eats software, what happens to the bottom 40 of software companies that are no longer as useful or can’t carry a premium…” | | 05:07 | Ed Helms | “It’s time for you to turn in your succession plan too. Disney’s been flat for three years.” | | 06:04 | Kalpen | “The theory is...85% of the time, depending on how the first five days of the trading year go for the S&P...this year has gone positive.” | | 09:49 | Kalpen | “Maybe a slight pullback and then things are back to normal in the market, which is interesting.” | | 11:18 | Cam Jordan | “If the Democrats really do have a blue wave, then that’s going to be, in the short term, negative for the stock market.” | | 11:45 | Cam Jordan | “When you control algorithm, you can do whatever you want… This is a political pit job executed very well.” | | 12:52 | Ed Helms | “They bring up that fraud, but not all the other fraud that’s being committed that benefits them. Allegedly.” | | 10:58 | Cam Jordan | “Very rare for the stock market to go up four years in a row, double digits, but anything is possible.” | | 10:56 | Ed Helms | “I think, I think 13 is where we’re coming at.” | | 15:15 | Cam Jordan | “You cannot play it safe in 2026. You gotta go all or nothing.” |

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:44: Main segment begins—Initial market predictions for 2026.
• 04:20: Commodities and sector rotation discussion.
• 05:07: Corporate leadership succession critique.
• 06:04: Discussion on the “first five days” market theory.
• 09:49: Market reactions to war/conflict.
• 10:44: Annual market return forecasts.
• 11:18: Political risk and effects on the market.
• 11:45: Media manipulation and Minnesota daycare story.
• 12:52: Broader discussion on fraud and double standards.
• 15:15: Strategic advice—commit to bold moves in 2026.

Tone and Language

The episode balances financial analysis with candid, sometimes irreverent banter. The hosts do not shy away from controversial opinions about political maneuvering, executive leadership, and trend speculation—offering blunt takes and using humor to keep the discussion engaging.

Summary Takeaways

• Expect continued growth in 2026, but volatility is likely, especially as political and global events unfold.
• AI remains the leading narrative, but sector shakeouts are inevitable.
• Political cycles and party control will shape short-term market outcomes.
• Media manipulation and algorithmic influence have tangible impacts on both perception and the market.
• Successful players, in politics and business, in 2026 will need to commit boldly rather than play to the middle.