7 Warning Signs the Economy is WEAKENING Right Now

Summary

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Episode Overview

Podcast: Earn Your Leisure
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Episode: 7 Warning Signs the Economy is WEAKENING Right Now
Date: March 17, 2026

This episode centers on the growing economic anxieties in 2026, focusing particularly on energy markets, geopolitics, and trading behavior. The conversation covers the rising risk of oil price surges due to global tensions, election-year politics, how geopolitics affect financial markets, and why listeners should stay disciplined amid economic volatility. The hosts and guests offer candid, sometimes humorous, financial analysis and practical advice on navigating an uncertain economy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Will Oil Hit $200? Geopolitics & Economic Fallout

• Tension in Oil Markets:
  • Early in the episode, a commentator poses the question: “Will oil get to $200? Iran — they saying they're gonna put pressure on the oil market and they're stopping shipping. But they're also bombing. Allegedly. Who knows who's bombing who at this point? Like I said, it's the Spider-Man meme.” (02:20)
• Historical Context & Probability:
  • Clayton Eckerd (Financial Analyst):
    • Recalls past highs: “All-time high for the stock USO was $953.36 in 2009. Crude market all-time high was $147.27 in 2008.”
    • He argues a $200 price would mean “snap level to our fragile circular economy,” suggesting less than a 3% probability: “If a 125 to 130 is a recession, 200 would be like snap level... A complete collapse of the market as we know it and it’d probably take eight or nine years to recover.” (02:43–03:57)
    • Memorable quote: “Even Trump, as maniacal as he can be, he doesn't want to see oil at 170, 190 or definitely 200.” (03:51)
  • Political Analyst: Echoes the view that government and political constraints mean oil won't reach such catastrophic highs, particularly during an election year: “If you have oil at those levels... that is now the selling point that will get you out of position in the House and Senate... They won't allow it to get to this level.” (04:21)

2. Elections & Political Constraints on the Economy

• Domestic & Political Risks:
  • Focus on how economic pain, especially sharp increases in oil prices, would be politically disastrous in a midterm election year. “If it stays, they won’t allow it to get to this level. But if it does. Yeah, this is a catastrophe.” (04:41)
• Geopolitical Complications:
  • Uncertainty around U.S. military entanglements and their impact on economic optimism. The discussion circles around whether or not the U.S. can successfully disengage from conflicts in the Middle East, and what persistent instability might do to markets:
    • Casual Commentator: “I mean it just depends on how long he’s forced to stay in the war.” (04:50)
    • They highlight that if troops stay or instability remains, energy shocks could persist.

3. Financial Market Psychology — Don’t Chase Spikes

• Reacting to Oil Volatility:
  • Casual Commentator: Asks if chasing oil after geopolitical spikes is historically a “losing trade” once the panic fades. (06:52)
  • Clayton Eckerd: Strong advice against reactive jumps:
    • “Don't panic. Don't chase. If it's not in your blueprint… If you're not a proficient oil trader, leave it alone.” (07:02)
    • Memorable quote: “They’ll make something hot. Like, think about corporate America. They pushed us out... to chase these shiny other trinkets that become available, like NFTs, like meme coins, etc. If you're not a proficient oil or natural gas trader, now is not the time to chase.” (07:22)
    • He likens new asset classes or fads to fleeting opportunities best left to professionals:
      • “Every asset has its own temperature, its own personality, its own rhythm. That's why you have people... They traded crude, they traded wheat. They tried live cattle. It's too hard to master all. So, yes. If you have not been practicing it, I wouldn't chase it now.” (07:44)

4. Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Economic Collapse Context:
  • Clayton Eckerd: “If it does [hit $200], your last concern will be futures, options or stocks because that means we will be in severe depression.” (03:44)
• Discussion on Power & Influence:
  • Lighthearted banter about political power and whether anyone is the exception to the rule.
    • “Everybody answers to somebody.” (05:50, Casual Commentator)
    • “He’s barely a lieutenant… No flies check in all the time. What’s up, big homie? Every time.” (06:10–06:22, Clayton Eckerd)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Oil $200 Discussion: 02:20–03:57
• Political Risks & Elections: 04:15–04:47
• Can the U.S. Exit the War? 04:50–05:46
• Don't Chase the Spike (Trading Lessons): 06:52–07:44
• Broader Trading Advice: 07:02–08:23

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Overall Tone & Takeaways

• Candid, Informal, and Cautionary:
  The tone is direct, sometimes humorous, and aimed at demystifying economic panic for everyday listeners. The analysts address real risks but emphasize discipline, patience, and avoiding reactionary trading—especially on the back of media-fueled geopolitical panic.

• Actionable Wisdom:
  The hosts and guests stress that periods of volatility and uncertainty aren’t times for amateurs to speculate in unfamiliar markets. “Stay in your lane. If it’s not your core, leave it alone.”

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Summary for Non-Listeners

If you're worried about oil prices, geopolitics, and signs of economic weakness in 2026, this episode breaks it down in plain language. The warnings are real, but the key message is: don’t let headlines or emotion derail your financial discipline. Markets are volatile, but chasing fads or engaging in high-stakes trades without expertise is a fast way to get burned. The economy faces risks, especially with geopolitical friction and election-year politics, but smart investors focus on fundamentals, caution, and long-term strategies.

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Transcript

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[Casual Commentator]

Yeah will oil get to 200 Iran? They saying that they're gonna put pressure on the oil market and they're stopping shipping. But they're also bombing. Allegedly. Who knows who's bombing who at this point? Like I said, it's the Spider man meme. Will oil get to $200 a barrel.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

I get the concern. If you look at so the all time high for the stock USO was 9, 5336. That was in 20 2009. If you look at the crude market, the all time high was 1,4727. That was in 2008. The probability of us going to 200 for any person who is in power is probably less than 300%. If a 125 to 130 is a recession, 200 would be like snap level to our fragile circular economy. Truce talks. So no, there's less than a 3% chance of it happening. But if it does, your last concern will be futures, options or stocks because that means we will be in severe depression and there's a lot more levers in place now than 1929. Even Trump, as maniacal as he can be, he doesn't want to see oil at 170, 190 or definitely 200. It will send a signal for a lot of people to sell off everything which will cause a complete collapse of the market as we know it and it probably take eight or nine years to recover. So I don't think so. What do you guys think?

[Political Analyst]

I think his, his team as maniac. I like the word maniacal. As, as they are, they, they know that it can't get to that level.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

We can't get there. Nope.

[Political Analyst]

Just from a domestic standpoint, from a political standpoint, you know this is a midterm election.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

Right.

[Political Analyst]

And they're approaching that area. If you have oil at those levels, you know that that is the now selling point that will get you out of position in the House and Senate and potentially, who knows, it'll be a new administration and it won't be from your party. If it stays, they won't allow it to get to this level. But if it does. Yeah, this is a catastrophe. That's a catastrophe.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

Yeah.

[Casual Commentator]

I mean it just depends on how long he's forced to stay in the war.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

Tell me more.

[Casual Commentator]

If he's not able to leave then

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

like after the fourth year.

[Casual Commentator]

Well, hopefully we leave way before then.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

But.

[Casual Commentator]

Okay, if he's not able to leave, if he's not able to leave then it's going to not going to get better.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

If he isn't able to leave due to other forces. Is that what you're talking about? Like we are troops, we're alive, we're live.

[Political Analyst]

Yeah. Our troops leave and there's still attacks on U.S. interest.

[Casual Commentator]

If we're not able to leave the war. Okay, we're not able to if we're not able to get out of the war.

[Political Analyst]

Yeah, that's what I'm assuming.

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[Political Analyst]

Let's say he says, like, we're done, but they're like, nah, we're gonna continue attack American interests.

[Casual Commentator]

If we're not able to say that, we're done.

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[Political Analyst]

Because he might just say it, and we might not be done.

[Casual Commentator]

Everybody answers to somebody.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

Hey, True Talks. Clip that up. Listen to what he's saying.

[Political Analyst]

He fits in there.

[Casual Commentator]

Nobody's bigger than the program.

[Political Analyst]

Well, you did say he's the exception, though, no?

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

Who?

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Trump?

[Political Analyst]

He not the exception.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

He barely. Lieutenant.

[Casual Commentator]

He's barely a lieutenant.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

I know we can't say because we live, but he check in all the time.

[Political Analyst]

The check in.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

No flies check in all the time. What's up, big homie? Every time. What? I'm not gonna get us canceled. True Talks. You see me on Good Morning America. I love you. Okay, but, Senor Drum for D R U M P F. His real name. He checks in every week.

[Casual Commentator]

Yeah.

[Political Analyst]

Okay.

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

Yeah. Did you write anybody answer to somebody?

[Casual Commentator]

That's a fact. Is chasing oil after geopolitical spikes historically a losing trade once the initial panic fades?

[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

Yep. Don't panic. Don't chase. If it's not in your blueprint, like, it's the same thing like with meme stocks for me, like, if you. You have a skill set to make money. If it's not in your core, leave it alone. Like, you don't need to rotate to NFTs. And I want to be very honest with our audience. They'll make something hot. Like, think about corporate America. They pushed us out of corporate America, forced us into entrepreneurship to chase these shiny other trinkets that become available, like NFTs, like meme coins, etc. If you're not a proficient or trader or proficient natural gas trader, now is not the time to chase. This will be a good entry point to begin practicing, but it would be the same thing as me saying, okay, well, I see what you're doing. I' ma start a YouTube channel and think I'm gonna know algorithm. Time to post headlines. Like, it's a science behind that, right? It's the same science in different assets. And every asset has its own temperature, its own personality, and its own rhythm. That's why you have people that were on the floor. They were just bond traders. They traded crude, they traded wheat. They tried live cattle. It's too hard to master all. So, yes. If you have not been practicing it, I wouldn't Chase it now.

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[Clayton Eckerd / Financial Analyst]

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