A Crash Could Be Coming But Not for the Reason You Think!

Summary

Earn Your Leisure Podcast
Episode: A Crash Could Be Coming But Not for the Reason You Think!
Release Date: May 2, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings (plus guest analysts)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the looming fears of a potential stock market crash, drawing parallels between today’s AI-driven tech rally and the infamous dot-com era of the late 1990s. Rashad, Troy, and their guests debate whether the current market truly mirrors past bubbles, discuss the resilience and revenue models of today’s tech giants, and provide insight into the dynamics that could actually fuel a correction or crash. This isn’t just a warning or a hype session—it’s an engaging, critical breakdown of the state of the market, rooted in history but focused on practical investment wisdom for listeners.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is Today’s Market Another Dot-Com Bubble?

[02:02 – 03:00]

• Market Analyst 1: Points out that the S&P 500, relative to the M2 money supply, looks strikingly similar to the levels seen during the dot-com bubble. Even overlaying the S&P charts from both eras shows near-identical patterns, fueling talk of a potential crash among market commentators.
  • “S&P 500 relative to M2 money supply is almost exactly where it was at the dot-com bubble… a lot of people are starting to say this looks a lot like the dot-com bubble and a market crash is coming.” [02:02]

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2. Why a Crash Now Might Not Be for the Same Reason

[02:52 – 05:22]

• Market Analyst 2: Disagrees that a 2026 crash is imminent or comparable to 2000, emphasizing the superior health and profitability of leading companies today.
  • “If you think a crash is coming this year, you're misinformed. Will it come next year? Yes.” [02:52]
  • They argue the quality of today’s market leaders (Apple, Anthropic, SpaceX, Google, Lilly, etc.) far outpaces those of the dot-com era.
  • On holding for the long-term:
    “If you’ve been invested the last 10 years... a 50% drop means if you're up 2,500%, 3,000%... you don’t care about a drop. That’s why length of hold matters.” [04:28]
  • The real fear and “wish” for a crash, they argue, comes from those who’ve been sidelined, not active investors.

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3. What’s Different About AI and This Revolution

[05:22 – 07:21]

• Market Analyst 3: Stresses today’s tech giants are not just “story stocks” but are showing actual, huge revenue and real, growing demand: Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon, Google, Meta—all trillion-dollar players.
  • “When you look at the revenue these companies are bringing in, that changes it. We're still at the start of a revolution.” [05:25]
• They share a personal anecdote about upgrading their Claude subscription, pointing to how monetized use-cases for AI are unfolding for real customers, not just speculative investors.

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4. Why the Dot-Com Bubble Burst & Lessons for AI

[07:55 – 09:00]

• Market Analyst 3: Reflects on why the dot-com bubble burst—companies then tried to create demand for their services without delivering real, consistent revenues.
  • “They were trying to create the demand. That’s the difference. We can clearly see [modern] demand... because we’re watching it being spent with a lot of these AI companies. There’s a reason why Broadcom is almost a $2 trillion company.” [08:17]
  • Cites supply chains struggling to keep up (e.g., ASML’s AI chip-building machines).

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5. Survivors & Casualties: Then vs. Now

[09:01 – 10:47]

• Market Analyst 2: Cautions that, just as the dot-com era had only a handful of survivors (Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Intel, Dell), AI's boom will also see many "deaths." For every “winner,” there will be dozens of failed or forgotten names.
  • “There’s going to be a lot of death in this era too. The cream always gonna rise.” [10:13]
• They debate whether companies like Nvidia truly count as dot-com survivors, but agree: the same pattern of boom and attrition will repeat.

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6. Expanding Cases: AI’s Impact on Legacy Companies

[11:25 – 12:10]

• Market Analyst 3: Uses Dell as an example of a company evolving from “boring hardware” to a serious AI player. Companies that pivot intelligently survive; laggards—even trendy ones—can still fail.
  • “Dell has completely changed their business strategy... This is not the Dell computers you thought. This is an AI story now.” [11:25]
  • Notes that some companies (jokingly referencing Allbirds and others) attempt a late pivot to AI—with mixed results.

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7. Factors to Watch: Geopolitical & Structural Risks

[12:20]

• Market Analyst 1: Briefly mentions that beyond market fundamentals, unforeseeable risks like geopolitics could always be a destabilizing factor.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Market Analyst 2:
  “If you think a crash is coming this year, you’re misinformed… Will it come next year? Yes.” [02:52] “Wishing for a crash does what for you? It does nothing.” [04:15] “If you’ve been invested the last ten years… you don’t care about a drop. That’s why length of hold matters.” [04:28]

• Market Analyst 3:
  “We’re still at the start of a revolution. That’s what makes it different from the dot-com bubble.” [05:29] “They were trying to create demand [in 1999]. That's the difference.” [08:17] “Dell has completely changed their business strategy. This is an AI story now.” [11:25]

• Market Analyst 1:
  “There’s a lot of great rappers out of New York in the '90s, but there was 10,000 that never made it. That was a bust.” [10:13]

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Key Timestamps

• [02:02] – Bubble comparisons: S&P today vs. 2000
• [02:52] – The real risk of a crash and why it’s misunderstood
• [05:22] – Revenue, value, and the AI revolution
• [07:55] – The flaw in dot-com era: fake vs. real demand
• [09:01] – Listing survivors and casualties, then and now
• [11:25] – Dell’s pivot as case study; how legacy companies stay relevant
• [12:20] – Brief note on geopolitical risks

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Tone & Flow

The hosts and guests keep the vibe energetic, engaging, and rooted in real investment experience―balancing analysis with analogies from rap to sports to tech. Their debate is lively but focused, questioning hype, sharing personal stories, and ultimately encouraging long-term thinking over quick trades or panic.

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Takeaways

• Market bubbles may look similar, but the revenue base and business models are vastly stronger today, particularly among AI and tech giants.
• Crashes may still occur, but the impact is different for long-term investors vs. market novices on the sidelines.
• True risk lies not in the technology, but in speculation and wishful thinking, both now and in the past.
• Expect winners and losers: genuine innovation with real demand will survive, late pivots and weak execution will not.

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Missed the episode? This recap covers all actionable finance insights, key analogies, and essential history lessons ― so you can invest wisely, hype-free.

Transcript

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[Market Analyst 1]

Podcast Network let's talk about the strength of the market and a few interesting things I saw on Instagram. Put in a group chat so S&P 500 relative to M2 money supply is almost exactly where it was at the.com bubble and then also the S and p. The dot com bubble overall chart laid over the current S&P 500 chart is almost exactly the same. So a lot of people are starting to say this looks a lot like the dot com bubble and a market crash is coming.

[Market Analyst 2]

With all the kindness and love in my heart from me to you, from Xander to you. If you think a crash is coming this year, you're misinformed Will it come next year? Yes. The great part about my thesis about people say why invest in two index funds if they hold the same companies. Team clipped us up, I've always said for mitigation of risk. Notice when software stocks were down 20 to 35% to 55%, the S&P was only down 3% and everyone was panicking like it was 1999 or 2001. I will say, despite the difference between 99 and now, is that companies. Okay, think about it this way. I criticize Apple while being at 4 trillion in 99. You couldn't put six companies together that was half as good as Apple's fifth competitor. The strength of the market is better because the companies are better. Look at Anthropic and despite all the stuff I've said about Sam Altman that's been revealed in the book that's come out and all the investigative journalism, that company's worth a trillion. Anthropic's worth a trillion. SpaceX worth it pre IPO, maybe two, two trillion arguably. Right. So the strength of the companies are better than we've seen. And you can't leave out Google, you can't leave out Lily, you can't leave out there's a bunch of companies if you go down the list of Dow, the S P, the NASDAQ that are just are like some of the highest grade of company that we've ever seen. So the comparison would be false. And wishing for a crash does what for you? It does nothing. Even if we, let's say we drop 50%. You know, like if I can be very honest tonight, you know who doesn't give a damn about a crash? The people who've been invested the last 10 years. A 50 drop means if you're up 2500%, 3000% like the people who got an Expedia in 09.22, they don't care about a drop. That's why length of hold, like for you guys, it's already been what, seven years? I don't think y' all selling in the next three. Why? Because you've extrapolated what, what the IP is going to be worth in 22 years. So I think everyone who wishes for a crash are only the people who've been sitting on the sidelines.

[Market Analyst 3]

I think I'll say this, I say I'll say that they do care if there is a crash. From the standpoint of great, here comes a new entry point for there's going to be another. Yeah, I think the dot com era is Hugely different and I think you kind of touch on it. But when you look at the revenue that these companies are bringing in, that, that changes it. When you're talking about Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon, Google, you're talking about meta trillion dollar companies. I mean Micron's not even a trillion dollar company yet. Right. But we've been in this company since it was 100 billion. It's probably sitting at about 500 billion now. SanDisk is not even at 200 billion yet. There's so much more growth for these companies. The demand has not changed and we're still at the start of a revolution. I think that's what makes it very different from, from the dot com bubble and this we're going to see every.

[Market Analyst 1]

Well, that was the start of a revolution too.

[Market Analyst 3]

True. I was going to say we had to start at this revolution but the demand is there and we're starting to see now companies that are about to IPO that are going to have some of the answers of how we now monetize it. Right. Like I personally just upgrade like Claude. Right. The run that they've been on.

[Market Analyst 2]

Right.

[Market Analyst 3]

Like I started out as a 19 subscriber to Claw Pro. I've recently upgraded to a 200 subscriber to Monthly. Why? Because of how I'm using it on a functionality basis. So that starts to tell. Like here's the story of how we can now monetize on some of the AI that we're using. Minstrel is doing it in Europe. There are more stories coming out. We already talked about man and what Meta's doing. So the use case is slowly starting to creep into the story. Quarter after quarter we keep thinking, okay, well the demand's going to change. The demand is going to change in every quarter that we've seen. And we're going to see big companies coming up next week. The, the mega cap companies will be reporting. I know there's some that's going to be reporting this week as well that hasn't changed.

[Market Analyst 1]

Right.

[Market Analyst 3]

We just saw TSM demand has actually tripled.

[Market Analyst 1]

Well, would you say, would you say some of the best companies in human history came out of the dot com era?

[Market Analyst 3]

A few.

[Market Analyst 1]

A lot of them.

[Market Analyst 3]

A few. I think that. And there's more. Yeah, well, Amazon, Google, Amazon, tail end. Amazon for sure.

[Market Analyst 1]

Part of the dot com era.

[Market Analyst 3]

Yeah.

[Market Analyst 1]

I'm just saying Google changed the world. It's comparable to. It's comparable. It birthed some of the strongest companies ever. It revolutionized the world, started a revolution. A lot of the Same talking points you could say about the, like.com wasn't like NFTs like.

[Market Analyst 3]

No, no, no.

[Market Analyst 2]

There were a lot of companies that, that bust the AOL Time Warner merger.

[Market Analyst 3]

But the key is, why did they bust? Why pause? Because of the revenue, right? Were they bringing in revenue quarter to quarter to quarter to quarter? Was there a demand for their services? There might have been a demand and it might have been an influx of companies.

[Market Analyst 2]

They were trying to create the demand.

[Market Analyst 3]

Exactly. And that. That's the difference. Right? So when we're looking at demand, we can clearly see it. How do we see it? Because we're watching it being spent with a lot of these AI companies. There's a reason why Broadcom is now almost a $2 trillion company. There's a reason why TSM is having this, this triple increase in demand where it's the reason why ASML is shipping out machines to a point where they can't even meet demand at this point. Let's, let's. And, and that's just from the AI infrastructure. If we start talking about energy, if we start looking at the GE Renovas, I know we're going to talk about companies. There's demand there, there's demand for infrastructure. There's a huge revolutionary demand that's happening that makes it a little bit different because of the revenue that's being brought into these companies.

[Market Analyst 2]

The question is, why did they bust, though?

[Market Analyst 3]

Hey, yo, pause.

[Market Analyst 2]

You ready? But Rashad, to your point though, I would argue even in the

[Market Analyst 1]

American piece,

[Market Analyst 2]

yo, I love the show, yo.

[Market Analyst 3]

Powered by

[Market Analyst 1]

Mato, we need you one episode.

[Market Analyst 2]

But in this AI era, there's a few companies I think, that will suffer the same fate as some of the ones in the dot com era. If you look, WorldCom was a part of that. Excite, Webvam, eToys, Pets.com, geoCities, Netscape, who was acquired by AOL. The prominent players that came out of it was Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Intel, Dell, Compaq went under. So you're going to have attrition. Like the premise of.

[Market Analyst 1]

Look what you just said. You said Nvidia, Amazon, Google put an asterisk.

[Market Analyst 2]

There was more death in that.com era and a bunch of money wasted, though

[Market Analyst 1]

there's gonna be a lot of death in this. In this era too. The cream always gonna rise. There's a lot of great rappers of New York in the 90s, but there was 10,000 rappers in New York that never made. That was a bust.

[Market Analyst 3]

Is it is. Are you putting Nvidia because it IPO during that era because Nvidia was not

[Market Analyst 2]

a darling in the 2000s. Right.

[Market Analyst 3]

It's not. It's not.

[Market Analyst 1]

It came. But it came out of that era.

[Market Analyst 2]

It came out of it. You can argue there were probably four to five great companies versus my math. Maybe I think it was 122 companies.

[Market Analyst 3]

What are we saying the years are for the dot com era? 99. Well 90s.

[Market Analyst 2]

Let's go 96 to 2000. Well pre world tracing. So 2001.

[Market Analyst 3]

Yeah. So then Google doesn't IPO to 2006. Right. So we don't matters 2012.

[Market Analyst 2]

Yeah.

[Market Analyst 1]

We didn't say meta.

[Market Analyst 3]

I'm just saying.

[Market Analyst 1]

But meta's a social media company. Google is a dot com company.

[Market Analyst 3]

But Google's in 2006.

[Market Analyst 2]

The.com era technically is 95 to 2000. It was like when we were in high school.

[Market Analyst 3]

2001 is like

[Market Analyst 2]

Microsoft benefited. But Microsoft IPO.

[Market Analyst 3]

And here's the other argument too. This revolution has helped those dot com. So a company like Dell, Dell has completely changed their business strategy. Right. And we were talking about this company a year ago and I said look, this is not the Dell computers that you thought. This is an AI story now. Right. They're doing the racks. They're figuring out how they're going to manage and utilize AI to the point now they hit a 52 week high today. That was a company that you wouldn't even think of when you were talking. And now there is a craze so that some companies will not make it. Right. We saw all birds saying hey, we're going AI Mustang

[Market Analyst 2]

recession indicator.

[Market Analyst 3]

That doesn't help our argument. Right. When you're talking about a company that didn't really move when they were selling their own product now going into AI. Okay. That there's a case there for that.

[Market Analyst 1]

And then there's also geopolitical risk that we can't account for.

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