AMD & OpenAI Partnership BREAKDOWN Stock Frenzy & Tech Moats

Summary

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Earn Your Leisure Podcast

Episode: AMD & OpenAI Partnership BREAKDOWN: Stock Frenzy & Tech Moats
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Date: October 13, 2025

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Overview:

This episode dives deep into the recent, headline-making partnership between AMD and OpenAI, which has caused a surge in AMD’s stock price and sent ripples throughout the tech and investment sectors. The hosts break down the mechanics and implications of the deal, analyze its impact on the competitive AI semiconductor landscape, and discuss the broader theme of "technological moats" shaping the future of AI and generational wealth.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The AMD & OpenAI Partnership and Stock Market Frenzy

• Background:
  • AMD’s stock shot up by 27% in the morning, then 35% after details of OpenAI’s significant 10% stake (through warrants) in AMD broke ([02:09]).
  • "Anybody that had AMD options, obviously, you know, look at their portfolio." — Market Analyst ([02:09])
• Personal Validation:
  • The hosts note this validates long-term stock picks discussed on the show and social media.
  • Troy: “That was one of your stock picks, Troy, at the beginning of the year or last year, you thought AMD.” ([02:51])

2. The “Number Two” Strategy in Tech

• Troy explains:
  • Nvidia dominates the GPU field, but being runner-up (AMD) can be lucrative, especially when serving different segments.
  • “Sometimes in business it’s okay to be number two. And it was for this reason…” — Troy ([03:06])
• Broader Reach:
  • OpenAI’s mission: reach “all of humanity” not just Big Tech clients, requiring mass GPU deployment at sustainable costs. ([03:54])

3. The Details: How the Deal Works

• The Warrant:
  • OpenAI didn’t buy shares outright but acquired a warrant—a right, not obligation, to buy AMD stock at a set price later ([04:18]-[04:41]).
  • "It's like an option...they have the right, not the obligation to buy or own the shares of AMD at a certain price point." — Troy ([04:37])
• Circular Economy:
  • The deal reflects a tech ecosystem where hardware, software, and capital flow between the same core industry players.
  • “This is a circular economy…This is why you got to follow and track the money, because it'll lead you right to it.” — Troy ([04:41]-[05:49])

4. Building an Indestructible Tech Moat

• Structural Moat:
  • Co-host: "I want to frame it, Troy, as an indestructible technological moat...this partnership ensures the safety of that sector being AI and the safety of OpenAI as they start to become public." ([05:49])
  • The deal locks in future competitive dominance, as AMD, Nvidia, Oracle, and OpenAI collaboratively control crucial infrastructure routes.
• Strategic Family Ties:
  • "It helps that Lisa and Jensen are cousins. You can't leave your cousin out, one of your favorite cousins out of the deal structure." ([06:47])
• Bill Gates Parallel:
  • OpenAI is echoing the vision of a PC in every home—a real possibility for global reach ([07:21]).

5. The Scale: Massive Energy and Infrastructure

• Energy Demand:
  • “OpenAir is going to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD's GPUs. That's the size that could power like Los Angeles.” — Troy ([07:39])
• How It Loops:
  • Nvidia builds data center infrastructure; AMD and Broadcom supply hardware; Oracle and other clouds rent out server resources.
  • The better OpenAI does → more infrastructure built → advanced AI requires more demand → circular reinforcement ([08:10]-[09:29]).

6. Generational Wealth and Strategic Partnerships

• Generational Player Model:
  • Co-host: “I invest into your business, you invest into mine. Long-term partnership. Let's build a moat that cannot be advanced or encroached upon and make sure we protect each other at all costs...” ([09:29])
• Tech Royalty and Networks:
  • Observing the intertwined families and partnerships (Lisa Su, Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, Larry Ellison) as a “master class in how to do long term partnerships.” ([09:57])
• Preparation for Market Cycles:
  • Positioning OpenAI and partners to weather potential downturns in 2027-2028.

7. OpenAI — The Greatest Startup Ever?

• Valuation Milestone:
  • “It has now passed SpaceX to have the largest valuation of any private company in history.” — Troy ([10:22])
  • Partnership likely pushes valuation well beyond $500 billion mark ([10:42]).
• Memorable Moment:
  • "This rollout...I haven't seen nothing as good since they rolled out $0.50 soundtrack.” — Co-host ([10:32])
  • “This is better.” — Troy ([10:40])

8. Inside Insights & The Importance of Research

• Insider Confidence:
  • Hosts receive ongoing AI industry validation on their predictions ([11:43]).
  • Troy: “...it's even more conviction when we talk to the audience here because not only are we saying it...people in these spaces are confirming...what you're saying is right.” ([11:43])
• Empowering Listeners:
  • Encouragement to take investment education classes, like “Choice Options,” as their research keeps outperforming in the tech sector ([12:41]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AMD’s Role:
  • "Sometimes in business it’s okay to be number two." — Troy ([03:06])
• On the Circular Tech Economy:
  • “The better OpenAI does, the more it consumes infrastructure, the more infrastructure is built, the more demand can scale…” — Troy ([08:10])
• On Generational Wealth:
  • “This is how generational wealth looks and should work...Let’s build a moat that cannot be advanced or encroached upon and make sure we protect each other at all costs.” — Co-host ([09:29])
• On OpenAI’s Place in History:
  • “It has now passed SpaceX to have the largest valuation of any private company in history.” — Troy ([10:22])
  • “This rollout...I haven't seen nothing as good since they rolled out $0.50 soundtrack." — Co-host ([10:32])
  • "This is better." — Troy ([10:40])

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Important Timestamps

• [02:09] – Market Analyst introduces AMD/OpenAI partnership and market impact
• [03:06] – Troy explains the “number two” advantage and hardware market
• [04:18–04:41] – Details on OpenAI’s warrant deal with AMD
• [05:49] – Discussion of “indestructible technological moat”
• [07:39] – Energy demands and the massive scale of OpenAI’s hardware operations
• [08:10–09:29] – “Circular economy” dynamics among leading tech firms
• [09:29] – Strategic generational and familial partnerships
• [10:22] – OpenAI’s new record-breaking valuation
• [11:43] – Hosts reflect on industry confirmation and research
• [12:41] – Investment education and stock pick performance

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Final Thoughts

• The episode breaks down how strategic alliances between legacy hardware giants (AMD, Nvidia), AI leaders (OpenAI), and infrastructure providers (Oracle) are establishing powerful, mutually reinforcing tech moats.
• The hosts celebrate their accurate predictions and urge listeners to keep learning and pay attention to industry trends and the “circular economy” of modern tech.
• OpenAI’s rapid valuation growth, new deals, and visionary leadership place it firmly at the center of the tech world, potentially as the greatest startup in US history.

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Transcript

[Scott Hanson]

Ah, come on.

[Troy]

Why is this taking so long?

[Scott Hanson]

This thing is ancient.

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[Market Analyst]

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[Market Analyst]

Big story of today, which is AMD. So AMD went up 27 on the morning, fueled by news that open AI partnership 25 and that it shot up 35. 10 stake, 10 stake for open AI. And yeah, that that led to a frenzy in the stock market. Anybody that had AMD options, obviously, you know, look at their portfolio. I text Dave Shands today. He was going, he was like, damn, that's crazy. Because obviously if you watch market Mondays, you saw that Dave Shands invested in AMD option A few months ago. So I know that's something that you. We posted it actually on Instagram. That was one of your stock picks, Troy, at the beginning of the year or last year, he thought amd. And so, yeah, talk about amd.

[Troy]

Yeah, it, it kind of in the clip was encompassed where we were talking about Nvidia being obviously the leader of the space when it comes to GPUs and who that number two player was going to be. And sometimes in business it's okay to be number two. And it was for this reason, when we think about Nvidia, every time we talk about it, we're talking about another Max 7 company that is acquiring his ships because of the price point, it kind of alienates some of the audience. And so when Meta buys millions of chips for its data cent, when Amazon is buying, when Microsoft is buying, obviously through OpenAI, you're talking about millions and millions. I think one of the, the key pieces of what was said from the president of OpenAI, he said, this is so core to our mission. If we really want to be able to scale to reach all of humanity, this is what we have to do in regards to the partnership. And so when he says all of humanity, he's no longer talking about just corporate Accounts and Big Max 7 companies. He's saying we're, we need to have enough GPUs to make sure that everyone on the planet can use our service. Now, if you just look at the cap table, how much that would cost and we'll break down how. This is a circular economy. This is really a circular economy.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

Can we use the real word later?

[Troy]

Oh, no, we can use the word circular economy because that's, that's exactly what this is. That's exactly what this is. This is. Hey, we have infrastructure, right? Oracle, we have connectivity, Broadcom, we have capital from Nvidia.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

Nvidia.

[Troy]

And the more we make and the more demand, all those things will start working together. Now. We need to make sure that we have enough bandwidth, we need to have enough hardware so that everyone can use it. So I think, what do they have, like over 800 million users now for ChatGPT? Yeah, you're approaching a billion mark. That's only going to increase with the amount of people that are actually becoming more familiar with it. We talk about, we use it every day. There are still people who don't have that. The app downloaded, that's going to change in the next two to three years. So the demand is going to be even higher. So they need to have more GPUs at a price point that can be sustainable for their growth. Which is why the 10% stake inside of AMD, the number two player, makes a lot of sense for them. But what they actually did was a warrant. So if you're not familiar with what a warrant is, it's like an option in a sense, right? Like they have the right, not the obligation to buy or own the shares of AMD at a certain price point. They didn't disclose it yet, but that's what this is and it makes perfect sense. So Nvidia is a partner. AMD is now under their ownership. 10 state. This is just going to keep going in a cycle. This is why you got to follow and track the money, because it'll lead you right to it. Everything's pretty evident.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

Yeah, I know we've been talking a lot about circular investments and circular deals, but I want to frame it. Troy, don't worry. As an indestructible technological moat. So AMD has been a picking stock club for six years. Nvidia took the helm. Open AI. Like don't you love when the babies get along and just bring the, the, the technological and financial vibe to you. This partnerships ensures the safety of that sector being AI and the safety of open AI as they start to become public. Nvidia of course took a different route. They paid open AI, AMD issued a warrant. So that way you're covered on both ends. That's even a hedge in itself. And then like you said with Oracle, being in that infrastructure sets them up to be the leader not only in AI, but potentially in Quantum having all those assets in line. The thing that I do like about open AI, it reminds me when he said that, it reminds me of Bill Gates. I want a PC in the, in every home in the world. I think open AI has a very good chance to touch or have a touch point to every user on earth. And they did an amazing job with the rollout of Sora as well. So on every front, enterprise, eventually government, consumer, they're doing incredibly well. Job well done to amd. And it helps that Lisa and Jensen are cousins. You can't leave your cousin out, one of your favorite cousins out of the deal structure. So this is to me a technological moat that will not be destructed anytime soon.

[Troy]

Yeah, and we had again an interesting call or class the other week when we talked about energy and Open Air is going to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD's GPUs. Like we're talking about. That's the size that could power Like Los Angeles. That's much as energy is going to need. I'm gonna, I want to break this down because I wrote it, I was like, I gotta explain this, but I gotta write it down to. So here's how this, we call this circular economy. E. There's mo. We'll say mo, right?

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

We'll say mo for. Right, yeah.

[Troy]

So Nvidia last week AI OpenAI announced that partnership with and it was big news. We saw it was a hundred billion dollars. So Nvidia and we broke that down. If they help build those data centers, right, which a 1 gigawatt data center could cost up to 50 billion to get online, 25 million to 35, 25 billion to 30 billion of that is going to go just to the GPUs, obviously through the infrastructure. So Nvidia is helping provide hardware and they're providing capital for them to get that infrastructure up. AMD now comes on, right? They're providing hardware, right. So you got hardware with Nvidia, hardware with AMD and then you got Broadcom stepping in as a supplier for interconnected systems. Right. We talked about that's the role that they play and they're huge in that. Obviously they have GPUs as well, but in connected systems is what they'll do. And then you got Oracle with Stargate that's going to provide data center operations and cloud leasing. Don't forget about the cloud. Right. When we talked about those servers, we talked about aws, we talked about Google, we talked about Azure with Microsoft, Oracle's going to provide that. So here's how this works. The better OpenAI does, the more it consumes infrastructure, the more infrastructure is built, the more demand can scale, the more hardware capacity, the more advanced AI becomes, creating more demand in turn. Circular.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

Circular is the word. Also on another lesson. This is how generational wealth looks and should work. I invest into your business, you invest into mine. Long term partnership. Let's build a moat that cannot be advanced or encroached upon and make sure we protect each other at all costs. Like that aspect of it with Jensen and Lisa being family. Sam coming into the tech family. Larry Ellison, if you know about his lineage and how he's helping his sons, this is a master class in how to do long term partnerships and a great onboarding for open AI for when the market potentially tanks in 27 and 28 for them to come on board and probably be. Is open AI the greatest startup in American history.

[Troy]

It's crazy you said that because I was just going to say that it has now passed SpaceX to have the largest valuation of any private company in history.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

History. This rollout is this. I haven't seen nothing as good since they rolled out $0.50 soundtrack.

[Troy]

This is better.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

This is amazing.

[Troy]

Yo, the interesting thing is when they did the Nvidia call the video announcement last week, a part of the the interview, Sam Oldman is saying that hey, we still have a bunch of announcements still to come this year. That was just last week. Yep. Last Friday the valuation came out at 500. Now that you add this 10 stake in AMD, we're going way past 500 billion now.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

Yeah.

[Troy]

Right. So at this point I'm thinking this, he's in the running for maybe like person of the year at this point with the amount of deals that he's.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

Done for sure and the hardware hadn't even dropped yet.

[Troy]

It's pretty remarkable.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

Yeah, it's absolutely incredible.

[Market Analyst]

For sure. We also, we got some insight on AMD earlier too in it before last year from a friend of ours too. So perhaps it's good that. Well, we said it on market Monday. Yeah, it's helpful to you know, know what's coming down the pipeline.

[Troy]

Yeah but that's part of it is doing the research too. So even when, when a friend of ours said it, it was for me it was felt like, oh, it's confirmation research that was done right. Like we're on the right path. Even now I still get texts from people in the AI space like yo bro, you're spot on. Like you're spot on. So now it's even more conviction when we talk to the audience here because not only are we saying it like that's why I said Market Mondays. And I'm not just saying because we're. I'm here. It has to be one of the the greatest shows of for investment ever, ever. Because the people that are watching it in these spaces are confirming, you know what, in fact just what you're saying is right, here's some other things to look for. Yep.

[Co-host or Financial Expert]

AI banking, crypto, all sides attack being at Nvidia. But yeah, 3 year price, AMD 366.79 and 3 year price for Nvidia 305.44.

[Market Analyst]

Yes sir. All right, shout out to Dave Shands too. Once again, lunch on you when we're in on that. So man, you guys, ey University, the options class. Choice options class. Vitally important. If you're in UI University, take advantage of that because those options been going crazy. Obviously if you see the market is at an all time high, you know that the options are going to be pretty well positioned. So yeah, a lot of those options have gone crazy over the last couple of months.

[Troy]

Sure, we saw micron hit 200 today. I mean, it's been a hell of a year, man. It's been a hell of a year. Ah, come on. Why is this taking so long?

[Scott Hanson]

This thing is ancient.

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[Troy]

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[Troy]

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