Podcast Summary: Earn Your Leisure – "Bitcoin to $250K by Year End?"

Date: October 26, 2025
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Podcast: Earn Your Leisure by iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

This episode of Earn Your Leisure dives into the bold predictions around Bitcoin’s potential to reach $250,000 by the end of the year, a call made by noted crypto bull Tom Lee. Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings analyze Lee’s forecast, discuss Bitcoin’s historical post-halving cycles, and dig into the larger forces – including Federal Reserve policy, institutional money, and media influences – shaping the outlook for crypto in late 2025. The episode aims to balance optimism and realism, inviting listeners to think critically about both bull and bear scenarios.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tom Lee’s Bitcoin Prediction

• Tom Lee’s Call: Bitcoin might hit $250,000 by year’s end, with Ethereum possibly reaching $60,000 eventually.
  • Quote:
    • "He says that he sees Bitcoin getting to 250,000 by year end. So there's only two months in the year. Bitcoin is currently at $110,000. So that would be over 100% increase in 75 days." – [02:25] (Troy Millings)
  • Lee’s optimism attributed to the Federal Reserve turning dovish after a year of hawkish policy, creating a possible macro tailwind for risky assets like Bitcoin.
  • Hosts acknowledge Lee’s strong track record with predictions across Bitcoin, S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq.

2. Historical Performance After Halving Cycles

• Troy breaks down Bitcoin’s behavior post-halving (the four-yearly event that reduces BTC mining rewards):
  • 2013 (post-2012 halving): Up 7,000%
  • 2017 (post-2016 halving): Up 291%
  • 2021 (post-2020 halving): Up 541%
  • 2025 (post-2024 halving): Currently up 44% so far this year
  • Quote:
    • "Based on Bitcoin’s halving cycles... If we play the law of averages, if we get up to maybe 90 to 100%, that would take us to about $147,000 to $150,000 for Bitcoin." – [03:50] (Troy Millings)

3. Is $250,000 Realistic by Year End?

• Both hosts express skepticism about a $250,000 price within 75 days:
  • The pace required (over 100% return in two and a half months) is unprecedented.
  • Market liquidity, institutional involvement, and broader macro trends do not obviously support that magnitude of a run in such a short time frame.
  • Quote:
    • "I can see [140k or 150k] there. Based on how it's performed historically after the year of halving, we've seen a great gain. I see it in that landscape, 250, I’m just not sure how we calculate that now." – [07:09] (Rashad Bilal)
  • Federal Reserve’s actions (potential rate changes) noted as a wild card, but time is running out in 2025 for such a dramatic move.
  • Troy suggests $250,000 could be possible next year, not in the short time frame suggested.

4. The Influence of Media, Fear, and Optimism

• Hosts point out the importance of discerning between what the media is selling—optimism or fear.
  • Recurring references to Robert Kiyosaki as an example of a bearish voice frequently predicting market crashes that haven’t materialized.
  • Emphasis placed on the idea that “in assets that are determined to go up, it’s better to be bullish than bearish,” but warns not to let hype override realistic assessment.
  • Quote:
    • "Is the media selling you what you want to hear, or is it selling you fear... You have to be mindful." – [08:40] (Troy Millings)

5. Thought Exercise for Listeners

• Listeners are encouraged to use language models (GPT, Claude, Perplexity) to analyze scenarios that could push Bitcoin from $110,000 to $250,000, considering both economic and geopolitical triggers.
  • Quote:
    • "Act as a world class investor. Tell me the 10 scenarios in which bitcoin will go from where it is now at 110 to 250 and what geopolitical events would have to happen in order for the market to run that high." – [08:20] (Rashad Bilal)

6. Institutional Money & End-of-Year Flows

• November typically sees inflows from institutional clients; there’s discussion about how these flows might influence both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
• Liquidity and “risk-on” appetite from institutions and hedge funds considered major drivers—unless there's a strong coordinated push, the outsized move to $250k looks unlikely in 2025.
  • "Unless China, our government and all hedge funds go risk on more so than they are already, it's going to be tough to get to 250 by Christmas." – [09:45] (Troy Millings)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Tom Lee’s Track Record:
  "He's been right, not just in bitcoin, he's been right about the S&P, he's been right about the Dow, he's been right about the Nasdaq. He is super bullish in the market. I don't see it." – [08:00] (Troy Millings)

• On Bullish vs. Bearish Mindset:
  "Great lesson is in assets that are determined to go up, it's better to be bullish... With that being said, I don't see 250." – [08:10] (Troy Millings)

• Encouraging Independent Analysis:
  "That's the thought exercise I want you guys to do tonight... Tell me the 10 scenarios in which bitcoin will go from where it is now at 110 to 250." – [08:20] (Rashad Bilal)

• Macro and Geopolitics:
  "Unless China, our government and all hedge funds go risk on more so than they are already, it's going to be tough to get to 250 by Christmas." – [09:45] (Troy Millings)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• [02:01] – Tom Lee’s Bitcoin & Ethereum predictions
• [03:20] – Breakdown of Bitcoin's halving cycles and historical results
• [07:09] – Hosts challenge the $250K projection using historical and macro data
• [08:20] – Suggested thought exercise: 10 scenarios for $250K Bitcoin
• [08:40] – Discussion on media narratives and investment psychology
• [09:45] – Institutional money and macro influences analyzed

Conclusion

Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings deliver a nuanced and balanced assessment of the bold $250,000 Bitcoin forecast. While admiring Tom Lee’s bullish perspective and track record, they leverage historical data, macroeconomic trends, and institutional behavior to ground their skepticism for such a dramatic move by 2025’s end. Through candid analysis, memorable quotes, and a challenge for listeners to think deeply and independently, this episode sharpens the audience's critical thinking about crypto market hype—and reminds investors to blend optimism with realism.