Bitcoin to $250K by Year End?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Earn Your Leisure – "Bitcoin to $250K by Year End?"

Date: October 26, 2025
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Podcast: Earn Your Leisure by iHeartPodcasts

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Episode Overview

This episode of Earn Your Leisure dives into the bold predictions around Bitcoin’s potential to reach $250,000 by the end of the year, a call made by noted crypto bull Tom Lee. Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings analyze Lee’s forecast, discuss Bitcoin’s historical post-halving cycles, and dig into the larger forces – including Federal Reserve policy, institutional money, and media influences – shaping the outlook for crypto in late 2025. The episode aims to balance optimism and realism, inviting listeners to think critically about both bull and bear scenarios.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tom Lee’s Bitcoin Prediction

• Tom Lee’s Call: Bitcoin might hit $250,000 by year’s end, with Ethereum possibly reaching $60,000 eventually.
  • Quote:
    • "He says that he sees Bitcoin getting to 250,000 by year end. So there's only two months in the year. Bitcoin is currently at $110,000. So that would be over 100% increase in 75 days." – [02:25] (Troy Millings)
  • Lee’s optimism attributed to the Federal Reserve turning dovish after a year of hawkish policy, creating a possible macro tailwind for risky assets like Bitcoin.
  • Hosts acknowledge Lee’s strong track record with predictions across Bitcoin, S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq.

2. Historical Performance After Halving Cycles

• Troy breaks down Bitcoin’s behavior post-halving (the four-yearly event that reduces BTC mining rewards):
  • 2013 (post-2012 halving): Up 7,000%
  • 2017 (post-2016 halving): Up 291%
  • 2021 (post-2020 halving): Up 541%
  • 2025 (post-2024 halving): Currently up 44% so far this year
  • Quote:
    • "Based on Bitcoin’s halving cycles... If we play the law of averages, if we get up to maybe 90 to 100%, that would take us to about $147,000 to $150,000 for Bitcoin." – [03:50] (Troy Millings)

3. Is $250,000 Realistic by Year End?

• Both hosts express skepticism about a $250,000 price within 75 days:
  • The pace required (over 100% return in two and a half months) is unprecedented.
  • Market liquidity, institutional involvement, and broader macro trends do not obviously support that magnitude of a run in such a short time frame.
  • Quote:
    • "I can see [140k or 150k] there. Based on how it's performed historically after the year of halving, we've seen a great gain. I see it in that landscape, 250, I’m just not sure how we calculate that now." – [07:09] (Rashad Bilal)
  • Federal Reserve’s actions (potential rate changes) noted as a wild card, but time is running out in 2025 for such a dramatic move.
  • Troy suggests $250,000 could be possible next year, not in the short time frame suggested.

4. The Influence of Media, Fear, and Optimism

• Hosts point out the importance of discerning between what the media is selling—optimism or fear.
  • Recurring references to Robert Kiyosaki as an example of a bearish voice frequently predicting market crashes that haven’t materialized.
  • Emphasis placed on the idea that “in assets that are determined to go up, it’s better to be bullish than bearish,” but warns not to let hype override realistic assessment.
  • Quote:
    • "Is the media selling you what you want to hear, or is it selling you fear... You have to be mindful." – [08:40] (Troy Millings)

5. Thought Exercise for Listeners

• Listeners are encouraged to use language models (GPT, Claude, Perplexity) to analyze scenarios that could push Bitcoin from $110,000 to $250,000, considering both economic and geopolitical triggers.
  • Quote:
    • "Act as a world class investor. Tell me the 10 scenarios in which bitcoin will go from where it is now at 110 to 250 and what geopolitical events would have to happen in order for the market to run that high." – [08:20] (Rashad Bilal)

6. Institutional Money & End-of-Year Flows

• November typically sees inflows from institutional clients; there’s discussion about how these flows might influence both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
• Liquidity and “risk-on” appetite from institutions and hedge funds considered major drivers—unless there's a strong coordinated push, the outsized move to $250k looks unlikely in 2025.
  • "Unless China, our government and all hedge funds go risk on more so than they are already, it's going to be tough to get to 250 by Christmas." – [09:45] (Troy Millings)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Tom Lee’s Track Record:
  "He's been right, not just in bitcoin, he's been right about the S&P, he's been right about the Dow, he's been right about the Nasdaq. He is super bullish in the market. I don't see it." – [08:00] (Troy Millings)

• On Bullish vs. Bearish Mindset:
  "Great lesson is in assets that are determined to go up, it's better to be bullish... With that being said, I don't see 250." – [08:10] (Troy Millings)

• Encouraging Independent Analysis:
  "That's the thought exercise I want you guys to do tonight... Tell me the 10 scenarios in which bitcoin will go from where it is now at 110 to 250." – [08:20] (Rashad Bilal)

• Macro and Geopolitics:
  "Unless China, our government and all hedge funds go risk on more so than they are already, it's going to be tough to get to 250 by Christmas." – [09:45] (Troy Millings)

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• [02:01] – Tom Lee’s Bitcoin & Ethereum predictions
• [03:20] – Breakdown of Bitcoin's halving cycles and historical results
• [07:09] – Hosts challenge the $250K projection using historical and macro data
• [08:20] – Suggested thought exercise: 10 scenarios for $250K Bitcoin
• [08:40] – Discussion on media narratives and investment psychology
• [09:45] – Institutional money and macro influences analyzed

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Conclusion

Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings deliver a nuanced and balanced assessment of the bold $250,000 Bitcoin forecast. While admiring Tom Lee’s bullish perspective and track record, they leverage historical data, macroeconomic trends, and institutional behavior to ground their skepticism for such a dramatic move by 2025’s end. Through candid analysis, memorable quotes, and a challenge for listeners to think deeply and independently, this episode sharpens the audience's critical thinking about crypto market hype—and reminds investors to blend optimism with realism.

Transcript

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[B]

Please.

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[B]

Talk about bitcoin, shall we? Let's, let's show this. Let's show this clip. Actually, you know, I'm still bullish on bitcoin in the fourth quarter. Seasonally Bitcoin strong. But now we have the Fed flipping.

[A]

Dovish after being essentially hawkish all year. That's a tailwind for bitcoin. So I think bitcoin gets to 200.

[B]

To 250,000 by the end of the year. And that aligns with Mark Newton's technical targets. Okay, Tom Lee. Shout out to Tom Lee if you're not familiar who Tom Lee is. Bitcoin bull. Somebody that's been. He's always bullish on bitcoin, but very intelligent person. He. He says that he sees Bitcoin getting to250,000 by year end. So there's only two months in the year. Bitcoin is currently at $110,000. So that would be over 100 increase in 75 days. He also said in unrelated. Well, and later on in that conversation that he sees Ethereum not now, but now get into $60,000. Wow. But he's always been a bull. Like I said, Tom Lee's always been. He's. He's been a bitcoin bull for years. So $250,000 in the next 75 days. Is that something that. Troy. Troy, you know what? Yeah, I'll say this. That is very lofty. So I'll use the historical data. Right. Based on bitcoins having cycles. The first year after a having cycle is usually the best year. Right. So 2012, first having cycle, 2013 being the next year, Bitcoin was up 7,000%. Right? 7,000%. 2016. So this is every four years. Right. So we went from 2012 to 2016. In 2017, Bitcoin was up 291%. 2020, right. That's the next cycle. 2021, the year after, Bitcoin was up 541%. Right. So these are huge jumps. 2024, we had halving last April. So this year we are now up 44% this year. Now, if we pay the law of averages, if we get up to maybe 90 to 100%, that would take us to about 147,000 to 150,000 for Bitcoin.

[A]

And Doug, here we have the limu imu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Uh, limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us. Cut the camera. They see us. Only pay for what you [e-mail] Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty Savings vary underwritten by Liberty Mutual insurance company and affiliates. Excludes Massachusetts. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway this fall. Take care of the little ones in the family with baby club Savings now through November 4th. Spend $25 on select Baby Club products and save $5. Shop for items like Pedias shore bottles, Pedialyte powder packs, Huggies baby wipes, Huggies diapers, Gerber puffs and Gerber pouches. And save $5 when you buy $25 or more on participating products. Offer ends November 4th. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details. Hey Ryan Reynolds, I don't know if you've heard, but Mint's Premium Wireless is $15 a month. But I'd like to offer one other perk. We have no stores.

[B]

That means no small talk crazy weather we're having.

[A]

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[B]

Averages play out at about 100% return. So when we looked at our price points and this we kind of been given this predictive number of 140. I know Ian, you had 150. We're in the same range 140. I can see it there. I can see it there. Based on how it's performed historically, after the year of having, we've seen a great gain. I see it in that landscape, 250. I'm just not sure how we calculate that now. I know he said that the Fed was hawkish, right? There was supposed to be maybe no rate changes. We got one already and now they're saying there's two more. I mean there's only three months left in the year, right? Well, two months left in the year, we got one in September. We'll see what happens here in October. So November, December, the only two months left. I just, I don't know how we get to that level. I just don't. I can't see it. But Tom Lee is, is. He's been right, not just in bitcoin, he's been right about the S P, he's been right about the Dow, he's been right about the nasdaq. He is super bullish in the market. I don't see it. Yeah, I like timely a lot. Great lesson is in assets that are determined to go up, it's better to be bullish. Anything bearish. With that being said, I don't see 250, 154, 490 I can see. But you don't have to take my word for it. I want you to go on a LLM, GPT or Claude or Perplexity act as a world class investor. Tell me the 10 scenarios in which bitcoin will go from where it is now at 110 to 250 and what geopolitical events would have to happen in order for the market to run that high. That's the thought exercise I want you guys to do tonight. Also too, it's November, client money is coming in. So if you say I think Ethereum is going to 10k while having a fund based around Ethereum, you gotta sell a big picture. Going back to is the media selling you what you want to hear or is it selling you fear so you can sell extreme optimism? Or like the other side is Robert Kiyosaki every other week saying the market is going to crash and it keeps going up. Right. You have to be mindful. I love tom a lot. 250 for Bitcoin by end of the year? No. Can I see 250 next year? Yes. Also, if they were not moving in pace with the market when it was actually detached before the institutions came in and had a mass adoption phase and took it over, I could see a run up of that nature. But unless China, our government and all hedge funds go risk on more so than they are already, it's going to be tough to get to 250 by, by Christmas. It's going to be really tough, impossible next year. I can see it though.

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