Do NOT Panic Sell Your AI Stocks Until You Watch This

Summary

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Earn Your Leisure Podcast

Episode: "Do NOT Panic Sell Your AI Stocks Until You Watch This"

Hosts: Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings
Release Date: August 10, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode takes a deep dive into the current state of the AI chip and semiconductor market, contextualizing recent volatility and guiding listeners on why now is not the time to panic sell AI-related stocks. The discussion centers around the underlying demand for AI chips and infrastructure, a breakdown of recent and upcoming earnings from major players (Nvidia, Micron, Sandisk, TSM, ASML, and more), and how the long-term growth narrative for AI and semiconductors remains robust. The hosts urge listeners to separate short-term market noise from long-term trends, providing actionable insights for investors in this rapidly evolving sector.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. AI Chip Demand Remains Strong

[02:27 - 06:31]

• The market overall continues to see strong demand for AI and semiconductor chips, with manufacturing and packaging giants like TSM and ASML reporting steady momentum.
• Despite some market hesitation and volatility, capital expenditure (CapEx) from major "hyperscalers" (big tech cloud companies) like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple continues to increase—an affirmation of ongoing investment in AI infrastructure.
• Quote [02:27]:

  "The demand hasn’t changed... manufacturing packaging side has this story slowed down, has momentum slowed down? And unequivocally it was. No, it hasn’t slowed down... All signs point to yes, this story is going to continue definitely to the end of this year and we’re talking about maybe sold out into 2027 when we’re talking about the memory space."
  — Market Analyst

2. Market Reactions & Earnings Recap

[06:31 - 08:21]

• The hosts analyze why, despite these positive signals, the market hasn’t always responded with positivity—especially in July, when many stocks saw sharp retracements.
• Focus on the difference between intelligent observation and intelligent investing—emphasizing the need for a long-term perspective.
• Discussion of upcoming critical earnings (AMD, Nvidia) and how these will likely further confirm the bullish narrative in AI chips.

3. Stock-Specific Outlooks and Targets

[06:43 - 13:18]

• Nvidia (NVDA):

  • Currently bullish, with a technical breakout above its moving averages.
  • Prediction [06:43]:

    "I see Nvidia crossing the 250 to 260 mark by the end of the year. That’s my outlook for it. And that’s conservatively; would it surprise me if it gets to 270, 280? It wouldn’t."
    — Market Analyst

• Micron (MU):

  • Another favorite; expected to reach 1400 by year-end.
  • Supports the notion of strong memory chip demand through 2027.

• Sandisk (SNDK) & Western Digital (WDC):

  • Sandisk targeted to reach the "2200 range" by the end of the year.
  • Western Digital anticipated to revisit or surpass its previous all-time highs.

• TSMC (TSM):

  • Demand from hyperscalers seen as driver for TSM's momentum.
  • Prediction [13:18]:

    "I think TSM crosses 400 this year just from what I’ve seen from the demand from all these hyperscalers...450 will be my number for TSM."
    — Market Analyst

• ASML:

  • More cautious outlook, waiting to see how Chinese regulatory news unfolds and how quickly new machines can be ramped up.
  • Monitoring any slowdown in orders from TSM and Samsung that could impact growth.

4. Subsector Nuance in Semi/Memory

[11:53 - 13:18]

• Not all semiconductors and memory companies are created equal.
• Careful monitoring needed, especially as some companies specialize in different types of memory (high bandwidth, NAND, SSD, etc.), which react differently to global headwinds.
• Use market retracements as potential buying opportunities depending on the company’s focus and fundamentals.

5. Microsoft’s Massive Comeback & AI Strategy

[14:16 - 17:56]

• Microsoft’s stock awoke from a multi-year slumber with a historic earnings jump, attributed to improved cloud (Azure) revenues and a return on sustained CapEx.

• Quote [16:18]:

  "Last week it was $381. Now it’s $487. So Microsoft has jumped $100 in one week, which is actually historic for its stock."
  — Co-host

• Even after this run, the story isn’t over—Microsoft is positioned as an AI leader, with its strong presence in enterprise services (Azure, OpenAI partnership, Anthropic).

• There’s still “so much more room for growth”—don’t assume you’ve “missed the boat.”

• Emphasizes Microsoft’s ability to generate revenue across multiple verticals, not just software.

• Quote [16:42]:

  "He had his greatest day of any. In any mega cap company ever. One day ever, ever."
  — Market Analyst

• Highlighted upcoming focus: enterprise agent/agentic software, and how these verticals will be important for long-term growth.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the durability of AI chip demand:

  "All signs point to yes, this story is going to continue definitely to the end of this year and we’re talking about maybe sold out into 2027…"
  — Market Analyst [06:00]

• On Nvidia’s year-end target:

  "I see Nvidia crossing the 250 to 260 mark by the end of the year...conservatively."
  — Market Analyst [06:43]

• On Microsoft’s stock recovery:

  "Microsoft has jumped $100 in one week, which is actually historic for its stock."
  — Co-host [16:18]

  "It had its greatest day of any in any mega cap company ever. One day ever, ever."
  — Market Analyst [16:42]

• On sector differentiation:

  "All semis are not created the same, all memory’s not created the same and I think that’s a very good indication to make."
  — Market Analyst [11:53]

• Investor advice:

  "What did we do... when we saw the market reset, especially in some of these sub sectors that we’re in? That’ll be the key teller of how we end our year."
  — Market Analyst [11:53]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• AI Chip Demand & CapEx Explanation: [02:27 - 06:31]
• Market Volatility & Earnings Recap: [06:31 - 08:21]
• Stock-Specific Outlooks: [06:43 - 13:18]
• Microsoft Segment: [14:16 - 17:56]

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Closing Thoughts

The hosts firmly advocate for a long-term perspective and urge listeners not to panic sell their AI or semiconductor investments during short-term pullbacks. Backed by real-time earning reports and industry trends, their overall bullish stance remains intact, particularly for Nvidia, Micron, Sandisk, and Microsoft, while urging nuance when evaluating subsectors and global headwinds.

Listeners are reminded that the AI revolution is structurally sound, market retracements should be seen as potential buying opportunities, and that the leading companies are only just entering their next phase of explosive growth.

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Transcript

[Podcast Host]

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[Co-host or Analyst]

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[Co-host or Analyst]

moving but let's break down this AI chip outlook situation for all the micron and sandisk holders out there.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

Yeah, I think it's very important to look at the market in its totality Right. If you look at it from the beginning of this year to now, this, the story is very clear, like the demand hasn't changed. And how do we know? Well, we started the month when we looked at TSM and their reporting and we said that that was going to be important. Right. We need to see if from the manufacturing packaging side has this story slowed down, has momentum slowed down? And unequivocally it was. No, it hasn't slowed down from the manufacturing packaging side. ASML would be in that category. I know they reported back to back. All right, well, we passed the first hurdle. Now did the market respond in the manner that we thought? No, but that's okay. We're not thinking from a short term perspective. Then the hyperscalers came into focus the last couple weeks and that, that was an important moment. Right. We needed to see if the hyperscalers were going to tell us a different story, were they painting a new scenario? And we saw Meta and we saw Microsoft and there was two different tales of what happened last Tuesday. But one thing remained the same in that capex was still at the forefront and it hadn't slowed down. Right. Like Meta decided that they were going to spend more, Microsoft said they were going to spend more, but they leaned more toward the lower end of their expectation. And something very key happened. The first time all year, Microsoft decided, hey, not only are we spending more, but we're actually starting to see revenue come back from this CapEx spend, which is very important. So when you look at the Azure growth, and that was the key number I was looking at, have they grown in cloud? And once I saw that the cloud number grew, I knew that this was going to be a story and we've been talking about it since we were in D.C. in February about where micro Microsoft was going to be headed. That was positive. Meta did something very different. You know, they, they, they talked about how, you know, it's still going to take some time and it's still going to need a little bit more proving to do. And then we saw Apple and we saw Amazon Report and I'm like, okay, perfect, demand is still there, capex is actually going up. Amazon is the number one spender. And why has a capex been important? Because it tells me money is still out there, they're still spending it, and now it becomes where. So now the infrastructure piece comes back into play. So if they're spending it, they're saying, look, we, we, we have revenue, we're getting it from our, our cloud service. That tells me that the infrastructure story is still very much in play and that speaks directly into the AI chip space. And so if we're talking about compute, then we're going to need GPUs, we're going to need CPUs, we're going to need memory. All of the companies we've been talking about all year that was, was now a validation. Okay. Cadbacks is still intact. Memory's still going to be a part of this, this, this fold. Semis is still going to be part of the fold. Infrastructure is going to be part of the fold. I know we saw ARM report and they had some really good earnings. The story still remains. Now did the market respond in, in a positive way in July? No, it didn't.

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

That's part of the next story.

[Co-host or Analyst]

Right.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

And that kind of paints another picture for us in terms of being a very intelligent person versus being a very intelligent investor. So the, the AI story is here. I know we got AMD reporting tomorrow. We, we'll talk about that. I'm super excited and I'll be telling you the exact things we need to be looking for if we're going to be investing in that. Nvidia will be reporting at the end of the month. So we got some time into that. And then obviously we just saw my Micron report at the end of June. So everything is right in, in the realm of what we thought would be. SanDisk is going to be reporting Wednesday which is going to be a big number in my estimation as well as Western Digital. So you got the semiconductors reporting, you had the capex spend from the hyperscalers reporting. All signs point to yes, this story is going to continue definitely to the end of this year and we're talking about maybe sold out into 2027 when we're talking about the, the memory space. So I'm still bullish and that shouldn't surprise anybody. But based on what we saw from, from the earnings thus far, all positive on my side.

[Co-host or Analyst]

So what's your outlook for Micron? Sandis, ASML numbers? Tsm? Yeah. What is the outlook in Nvidia?

[Market Analyst/Expert]

I'm super bullish on Nvidia. We actually are in the chat where I'm saying right now if you look at from a technical standpoint, from 100 day moving average, from a 72 day moving average, 200 Nvidia has actually crossed all those in the past couple days if anybody's been watching. Right. Like it, I think that 400 sitting at like 192 today it got to 207 which was, it was a key number to get over. I think that that was, it's a 20 day after it crosses that hurdle. Right. The next stop is now going to retest. Its all time highs up at 236, which is a nice Runway. Right. We got three or four weeks before they report, you know, their, their quarter's earnings. And the reason why we love Nvidia is because we can see what has happened prior to it and they get to set the tone to say, all right, look, demand hasn't changed, look, we're still selling out. Here's our future guidance, here's what we're doing in terms of Vera Rubin, right, here's our next generation of gpu, here's our next partner, here's who we're also investing in. They're gonna have all that at the end of the month. I love it right now, right. Like I've been trying to just stack calls on it. I see Nvidia crossing the 250 to 260 mark by the end of the year. That, that's my outlook for it. And that's conservatively, would it surprise me if it gets to 270, 280? It wouldn't. But conservatively I see it finishing the year at 250. And so if that pulls, that means compute pulls, that means Micron will pull as well. So I, I raised that last week. Micron is, is one of my stories of the year. We touched 1200, 1300. I think 1400 is not a space that would surprise me by the end of the year for it. I think Sandisk will be in that 2,200 range.

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[Market Analyst/Expert]

International Incorporated, those all time highs that we touched, I think we'll, we'll, we'll re, we'll revisit those probably before the end of the year and some of these cases will pass it. Same thing with Western Digital. I know 7, 780 or 790 was this all time high is sitting now down in the 5 80s. So this retracement that we saw in July, a lot of people like when should I invest? When is it going to be a good time? We saw some of these companies pull back 30, 40, 50%. What did we do that'll be the key teller of how we end our year? When we saw the market reset, especially in some of these sub sectors that we're in. And I say sub sector because obviously all semis are not created the same, all memory's not create the same and I think that's a very good indication to make. We watched Sandis move, we watched Micron kind of struggle today, right until it kind of closed above. Well, they're really having a, a fight with is high bandwidth memory going to be curtailed by what China's doing? Well, high bandwidth memory is different from Nan memory which is different from SSD memory. Right. These companies are all created equal so we, we have to be mindful that as well. But those stories are still going to play out. I love tsm. I'm g go out on limb here. I think TSM crosses 400 this year just from what I've seen from the demand from all these hyperscalers and what I've seen from all the, the semis, the role that TSM plays.

[Co-host or Analyst]

You say cross is 500, 400 TSM.

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

Yeah.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

Four.

[Co-host or Analyst]

It's already.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

Oh, what number?

[Co-host or Analyst]

Four or six?

[Market Analyst/Expert]

Four. So 450 is the number there. 450. I thought we were sitting at three or nine like we was last week. So 450 will be my number for TSM. Who else you at ASML? Yeah, I got away on ASML only because the news out of China and we highlighted it last week. It's concerning from a long term perspective but I want to see how fast they can get these machines up and running. And the news from TSM in regards to ASML we reported about this a few months ago is also something that raises concern for me where TSM is saying hey, we're going to slow down on ordering machines. We're going to try to figure out how to scale and build something compatible so we can have more efficiency from the ones that we have that slows down demand. That's their biggest customer, Samsung number two. So we just got to be mindful of asml. Definitely still believe in it, but I'm a little more watching that a little bit more carefully.

[Co-host or Analyst]

Microsoft finally got out of their slumber last week. They had a big, big, big, big day. And that was something that we talked about for a long time. Microsoft been sleeping for almost two years now. So a lot of people holding Microsoft 2 Tech 2 index. That was a big day for Microsoft.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

Yeah. Again, shout to everybody that's been on this long journey with Microsoft. I remember being in D.C. and saying, like, we're going to do this 400 call out to August 15th. And just month after month we were just getting beat up in that call. Actually extended that call out to December of 2028. Just because the story of Microsoft is very clear. You're talking about a leader in terms of market cap, you're talking about a leader in terms of AI. We already know its position with OpenAI and it's 20% ownership.

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

But I think one of the things

[Market Analyst/Expert]

that I kind of highlighted then was we have to really look in depth of what's happening inside the company.

[Tyler Redick]

Right.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

Like when it got beat up for the last quarter, it was because they saw a pullback in the growth of, you know, their cloud service, Azure. And the reason was because they said, you know what, if we're going to spend, we need to spend internally and we need to build it out even further. So we're going to spend more money to make more money for the long run. And once you understand that picture, then you can kind of figure out, all right, Capex spend is not just something that they're throwing money away at, they're actually reinvesting it. What happened obviously, again is they finally were able to turn profit. And that's important, Right, because not only did that benefit them as a company.

[Co-host or Analyst]

Right.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

It was at $400. Now where we trading at today? 464, 70. Somewhere up there. The reality is that Microsoft year to date is up 1%.

[Co-host or Analyst]

47, 40.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

And it's up 1% year to date.

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

So a lot of people are saying,

[Market Analyst/Expert]

did we miss it? Did we miss it? It's been an incredible run over the past week since earnings. It's moved 1% this year. And so there's so much more room for growth. When you're talking about aws, when you're

[Co-host or Analyst]

talking about it also, it went up a hundred dollars. I mean, just, just this is important. And last month it was 300 no, last week it was $381. Now it's $487. So Microsoft has jumped $100 in. In one. In one week, which is actually historic for his stock.

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

It had his.

[Co-host or Analyst]

It had. It went up 12%. It had his last Thursday.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

He had his greatest day of any. In any mega cap company ever. One day ever, ever. Right. So I'm saying, like, if people are thinking they missed the story, if they thought they missed the bolt.

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

Yeah.

[Market Analyst/Expert]

You might not have been in those 400 calls that we did in February. You might not have been in the one we did in, in June. This story is far from over. Right. Like, they're not saying that we're going to slow down spending. No, we actually are starting to see return on our spend, so we're going to figure out how we exped even more. So this story that Microsoft is painting the copilot piece, we obviously know with OpenAI, their partnership with Anthropic, they're very much at the forefront. I think the next piece that we need to watch is the enterprise Agent. And that's been part of the language over the past few weeks is how do we scale this? Well, we can talk about software, and then Microsoft got caught in that downward spiral where all software gets beat up. You're talking about Palantir, you're talking about ServiceNow, you're talking about workday, and we'll talk about Palantir later on. Microsoft gets thrown in that because when you think copilot, you think software. But there's so many different verticals inside of the business that can generate revenue that it makes it even more attractive. And so that agentic enterprise software, that agentic agent that's going to be leading

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

the charge that before you sign off, you tuned in for ways to help teams move faster, make sharper decisions, and turn scattered context into work they can use. ChatGPT for Business can help. ChatGPT for Business gives teams a shared workspace with admin controls, permissions and access to work and codecs. In ChatGPT, this means your business can move from question to answer and code to rollout quicker. Join over 10 million business and enterprise users worldwide already using ChatGPT for work. Download the ChatGPT desktop app or contact sales to learn more earners.

[Co-host or Analyst]

What's up?

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

Look, building wealth isn't just about making money. It's about knowing where your money is working for you. That's why we partner with Empower. Empower is all about helping you invest well so you can go out and live a little. Their free Empower Personal Dashboard gives you a complete view of your financial life in one place. Track your net worth, monitor your budget, analyze your investments, set retirement goals and more. You've worked hard for your money, now make sure it's working hard for you. Download the Empower Personal dashboard or visit empower.com not an empower client, paid or sponsored when traveling for events or festivals throughout the country, every dollar matters. We compare flights, prices, hotel rates and restaurant options. So why wouldn't we compare rides? Personally, I always check Lyft before booking a ride. Prices can change throughout the day depending on traffic, weather, and what's happening in the city. If you're headed to a concert, out to dinner, or catching up with your friends on a Friday night, taking a few seconds to check lift could leave

[Market Analyst/Expert]

you with more money to enjoy the experience.

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

Save money. Check lift.

[Tyler Redick]

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[Podcast Host]

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