Investor Daily l: Is Now the Time to Buy Oracle? Cloud Profits, & Risks

Summary

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Earn Your Leisure Podcast – Investor Daily: Is Now the Time to Buy Oracle? Cloud Profits & Risks

Hosts: Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings
Date: December 17, 2025
Episode Theme:
A deep dive into Oracle's recent stock pullback and the broader landscape of cloud profitability, with nuanced discussion on investment timing, cloud infrastructure growth, company fundamentals, and the role of corporate/government relationships.

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Episode Overview

In this episode of Earn Your Leisure, Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings, joined by two Stock Market Analysts, break down Oracle's current position in the stock market following its recent pullback. The focus is on whether now is the optimal time to invest in Oracle, the timeline of profitability for cloud services, understanding the risks involved, and how Oracle fits among the cloud computing giants. The speakers also touch on the market’s evolving perception of Oracle and the impact of political connections and sentiment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Oracle’s Stock Pullback & Entry Price

• Immediate Sentiment:
  • Despite recent pullback, Oracle is not necessarily a buy right now—waiting for more favorable pricing is advised.
• Technical Analysis:

  “I think you definitely need to wait to … at least 160 before you are willing to pull the trigger.” — Stock Market Analyst 2 [03:58]

  • Uses Fibonacci retracement and the 400-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) as guide markers.
  • Analyst suggests Oracle is “underneath that 50 mark ... not a good sign” but sees potential starting at $160/share.
• Cautionary Note on Expectations:

  “We have to stop looking for companies to give Nvidia-like returns that are not Nvidia.” — Stock Market Analyst 2 [04:27]

Cloud Profitability Is Future Dated

• Timeliness of Returns:

  “Cloud profitability is future dated … it takes time.” — Stock Market Analyst 1 [05:20]

  • Although Oracle’s cloud business is growing (from 32% to 39–40% of revenues), realized profits are lagged due to high capital expenditures (capex).
• Historical Comparisons:
  • Draws parallels to Amazon AWS and Google Cloud, noting both took years before cloud segments were profitable.
  • Oracle shifted to cloud in 2018; still in the capex-heavy, margin-thinning phase.

Oracle Among Cloud Giants

• Current Position:
  • Oracle sits as the #4 player in U.S. cloud, #5 globally.
  • Analyst compares Oracle’s present phase to Microsoft Azure’s earlier journey:

    “Their market was unsure if the company could really pivot from being a software to a cloud service. You know what that company’s name was?... Azure by Microsoft.” — Stock Market Analyst 1 [12:14]

• Forecast:
  • Oracle’s repeated reinventions (enterprise software → subscriptions → cloud, now AI-focused services) are highlighted as a sign of adaptability.
  • The strategic pivot is labeled “still in transition,” with future profitability contingent on continued execution in cloud and AI.

Technical Markers & Sentiment

• Key Levels:

  “Oracle is sitting at 183.82 [its 400-day EMA] ... which is a sign.” — Stock Market Analyst 1 [13:12]

  • The technical picture signals caution but not disaster.
• Market Sentiment Shift:
  • Discusses “negative sentiment around Oracle” vs. earlier positive buzz for names like Tesla.
  • Notably, credit default swaps have spiked, reflecting investor concern over Oracle’s ability to manage debt [13:40].

Corporate/Government Ties and Influence

• Larry Ellison’s Influence:

  “Will people be so pro-Oracle if he didn’t have Trump in his back pocket? … But the stock was not a tech darling.” — Stock Market Analyst 2 [14:22]

  • Oracle’s founder Larry Ellison’s political connections, especially his alignment with the Trump administration, have aided in landing major government cloud contracts (TikTok, OpenAI’s Stargate).
• Political Patterns:

  “Have we seen a clear pattern of how he makes sure that the people that are closest to him and take care of him are being taken care of? 100%.” — Stock Market Analyst 1 [15:13]

  • The panel suggests these connections are significant factors in Oracle’s recent business fortunes, particularly around federal cloud contracts.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I think you definitely need to wait to … at least 160 before you are willing to pull the trigger.” — Stock Market Analyst 2 [03:58]
• “Cloud profitability is future dated … it takes time.” — Stock Market Analyst 1 [05:20]
• “We have to stop looking for companies to give Nvidia-like returns that are not Nvidia.” — Stock Market Analyst 2 [04:27]
• “Their market was unsure if the company could really pivot from being a software to a cloud service. You know what that company’s name was?... Azure by Microsoft.” — Stock Market Analyst 1 [12:14]
• “Oracle is sitting at 183.82 [its 400-day EMA] ... which is a sign. … Oracle is not going anywhere.” — Stock Market Analyst 1 [13:12]
• “Will people be so pro-Oracle if he didn’t have Trump in his back pocket?... But the stock was not a tech darling.” — Stock Market Analyst 2 [14:22]
• “Have we seen a clear pattern of how he makes sure that the people that are closest to him and take care of him are being taken care of? 100%.” — Stock Market Analyst 1 [15:13]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:41] - Oracle’s stock pullback and entry price discussion
• [05:20] - Cloud profitability timetables; investment patience required
• [10:51] - Historical evolution of cloud (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Oracle)
• [12:14] - Parallel to Microsoft Azure’s cloud journey
• [13:08] - Oracle’s technicals and current chart position
• [14:22] - The Ellison–Trump connection, government contracts, and political influence

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Tone and Takeaways

The hosts and analysts deliver their analysis in a pragmatic, data-driven tone, mixing technical stock commentary with accessible anecdotes and historical references. They repeatedly stress the importance of patience, realistic expectations, and the need to avoid chasing yesterday’s tech returns.

Summary Judgment:

• Oracle is in a necessary but challenging investment phase—growth and profitability in cloud will take time.
• Currently, a wait-and-see approach, potentially eyeing an entry at $160/share, is advisable.
• Oracle, aided by powerful political and corporate connections, is likely to remain a major player in cloud and AI, but immediate returns should not be expected.
• Investor caution is warranted both by technical indicators and shifting market sentiment.

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Transcript

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[Stock Market Analyst 1]

Talking about a stock pullback.

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Let's talk about Oracle. We talked about it a little bit.

[Stock Market Analyst 1]

Last week but Oracle still you know.

[PNC Bank Advertiser]

Fighting his way out of his it's pullback. Is now the time to buy Oracle?

[Stock Market Analyst 2]

I don't think so. Stock club put in chat. If I can put in one of the prices I, I think you definitely need to wait to 1 at least 160 before you are willing to pull the trigger. If you look at the Fibonacci from the all time high over the last five years is underneath that 50 mark which 202, 73. That's usually not a good sign but there is a place where it's sitting where there is some signs I'm sure. I don't know if you want to queue it up but there is a place that I do like to start to look to buy an asset. One thing I will say though, we have to stop looking for companies to give Nvidia like returns that are not Nvidia because then even Nvidia aren't gonna be gone gonna be able to give those returns that they've had since 2021. It's a different market, it's a different climate. The truth about the economy is coming out a lot faster. People are starting to brace for a recession and risk is all for most hedge funds. So if you like it, you have to like it at the right price. But if it's really at its fair value price for where it should be. But I would definitely wait for like that 160 area to start to acquire equities in this company.

[Stock Market Analyst 1]

Yeah, I'll start by saying this and this is important to know. Cloud profitability is future dated.

[Stock Market Analyst 2]

Right.

[Stock Market Analyst 1]

So if you're writing notes, write that down in your notes. Cloud profitability is future dated meaning that there's going to be profits down the road but it takes time. And so what happened to Oracle? Yes, we've talked about the investment that they've made. And the idea is if you build it, they will come. The reality is that you have to build it. And the problem that people are seeing is that the cost that it's going to take to build is really strenuous on its capex, which is interesting because that feels like a natural thing. If we're going to spend more to make more, then we need that time period to do it. The problem is that their cloud service in the immediate standpoint was growing. And so what did I say? I wanted to see? I wanted to see if the cloud business was continuing to grow, to continue to grow. And it did. Right? They added new customers. The crowd business went From I think 32% up to 39% or 40%. That's a good sign. So I start studying who else in the cloud service business has had this type of run, right? So we got to go back to the pioneer of all this, right? When we talk about cloud service, it starts with AWS in 2006. In 2006, people were not talking about cloud. In fact, they weren't even worrying about the profitability because that was not the core for Earnest.

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[Stock Market Analyst 1]

See mint mobile.com Amazon's business, right? This was an E commerce thing. They add this as a derivative to their portfolio 10 years down the line. Now AWS is the thing that we know it and it's profitable. 2008Amazon sees not Google sees the same thing, right? They watch what Amazon did, they create a Google cloud same thing, right? We had to pioneer with aws. We got the technology and they led into adaption into the Google space. Now that becomes a revenue for them six years down the line. So now we're talking 2016. We're starting to see profitability. Oracle just turned over to a cloud business in 2018. So we're right in that, that frame here of where are we going to see profitability from it. It just so happens that it's coming at the same time as a capex spin. I'm going to give you another company and I'm going to tell you what the report said inside the cloud space. This company, the cloud business was growing fast, but it wasn't yet dominant. We already know that Oracle is number four in the space, right? We talked about the other, other three. This company, they said that they had a heavy cloud capex depressing their margins, right? So the amount of money they were spending, the margins were getting thinner. How are we going to pay for this? They said their software still was the core profit engine, very similar to Oracle. They also said that their market was unsure if the company could really pivot from being a software to a cloud service. You know what that company's name was?

[Stock Market Analyst 2]

Which one?

[Stock Market Analyst 1]

Azure by Microsoft. Now if we look at it today, it's number three in the cloud space. And so when I'm telling you that profitability takes time and it's future dated, that's what we're saying here. The issue here is obviously AI is in the mix of all of this, right? And so now when we look at Oracle, it's like, hey, they've reinvented themselves a few times already. They started out as enterprise software. They went from enterprise Software to subscriptions. Now they're going from subscriptions right in that AI software to now cloud service. And obviously everything comes in AI. It's going to take time. Are they at the prime place? Well, there's this guy I listen to every Monday. His name is Ian Dunlap. He talks about this moving average called the 400 day moving average in Oracle is sitting at 183.82. That is representation of what.

[Stock Market Analyst 2]

Let me give him my levels. I don't mark him.

[Stock Market Analyst 1]

It is currently sitting at its 400 day EMA, which is a sign and I'll leave it at that. If you know, you know. But Oracle is not going anywhere. The cloud space is, is going to be a space that they're going to play a part in. Obviously they're number four in the United States, five globally. But I think with what's happened is now you're, you're starting to see the sentiment change. The same way we talked about the positive sediment when we're talking about Tesla and Elon Musk, you're seeing negative sentiment around Oracle. You're seeing credit default swaps. I mean the credit default swaps, which is crazy, have spiked through the roof. Meaning people are saying look, we're going to bet that if they can't pay it right, we need to make money off of it. We're betting on them, not downside. They're betting on them not being able to pay this off. I think that's interesting. And people are making money off that. In the short term. I think this is, Oracle will be here to stay. You're talking about the, the third or fourth wealth building wealthiest person in the world when we're talking about Larry Ellison, obviously he has government backing on his side. This will, this will turn around. But it's an interesting point right now that it's at.

[Stock Market Analyst 2]

Can I play devil's advocate real quick? Will people be so pro Oracle if he didn't have Trump in his back pocket? Because prior to him getting in. Yeah, most people weren't not looking at Larry in the way that he should be revered. But the stock was not a tech darling.

[Stock Market Analyst 1]

You're right. And I think yes. I'm going to say yes. And I'm not saying because of this administration. Right. I'm thinking when he was president the last time. So when he was 45, the tea leaves were there.

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[Stock Market Analyst 1]

When we're talking about who's getting cloud contracts from the government, who's making the tick tock fiasco, who's going to be the cloud server for them. That's worked in his favor. Obviously. Now when we're talking about open AI and Stargate, that's worked in his favor. So is he a huge donor of that campaign? A thousand percent? Is he? Have we seen a clear pattern of how he makes sure that the people that are closest to him and take care of him are being taken care of? 100% earners.

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