Episode Overview

Podcast: Earn Your Leisure

Hosts: Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings

Episode Title: Investor Daily: What’s Next for Bitcoin? The Bear Market & Price Predictions

Date: November 21, 2025

Theme:
This episode dives deep into the current state of Bitcoin amidst a significant price drop, explores the fundamental nature of its bull and bear cycles, and features a spirited debate over price predictions, institutional influences, and strategies for both seasoned and new investors. The hosts contextualize Bitcoin’s present volatility by connecting it to historical cycles, discussing potential bottoms, and debating whether we’re already in a bear market or still in the midst of a temporary correction.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bitcoin’s Price Decline and Four-Year Cycle

Timestamp: 03:49–05:37

• At the time of recording, Bitcoin is trading at $92,000 and “dropping steadily.”
• A key technical event (“passed the death cross”) just occurred, signaling potential further weakness.
• Rashad (C) describes Bitcoin’s unique predictability, highlighting its consistent four-year boom-bust cycle:

  "It's the only investment that we actually know what's going to happen...it has four year cycles...it's always repeated the same cycle. Like no other investment has ever done that." (C, 03:49)

• The Bitcoin halving cycle is central: sharp drops (of 70–80%) typically follow bull markets, with eventual, inevitable recoveries.

2. Are We Already in the Bear Market?

Timestamp: 05:43–07:28

• The debate centers on whether this current phase marks the start of a new bear market or a short-term reset before another rally.
• Rashad (C) suggests that, based on past cycles and “ChatGBT’s perspective,” Bitcoin could drop as low as $30,000–$40,000 (a typical 70-75% drawdown), though “most people don't think that it'll fall that far because the institutional backing now that it didn't have before.”

  “No matter what, how you look at it, it's gonna drop...90,000 is not a good price to buy cause it's going to go lower than 90,000.” (C, 07:28)

3. Bear Market Duration and Outlook

Timestamp: 12:02–12:22

• Rashad (C) clarifies that bear markets in crypto “usually last... 12 to 18 months,” suggesting that if the bear has begun, a new all-time high may not arrive until “the end of 2027.”
• Despite current pessimism, he emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook:

  “Another thing that we do know about bitcoin is that it always goes up...we know that in 2028, 2029 it's going to be higher than what it is now.” (C, 12:20)

4. Investor Advice: Don’t Panic, Plan for the Worst Case

Timestamp: 12:55–15:46

• The conversation pivots to investor psychology and best practices during drawdowns.
• Ian (F) advises listeners not to panic, referencing a favorite song by Meek Mill and Rick Ross:

  “Don’t Panic. Now is not the time to panic.” (F, 12:55)

• Predicts a possible slide to the April lows ($77,453) and suggests buying in these ranges (“Should you pick up some at 77 and some change? Yes.”)
• Price floor theories:
  • F: “Worst case scenario, I have this going to... 53,524.”
  • D: “I had it at 60. 63 to 67.”
• Both stress assuming worst-case scenarios and being strategic about buying points, not just ‘buying at any price.’
• Strong institutional support is cited as a potential buffer against extreme declines (“The institutional, the Saudi fund. It's too many big players that will absorb the coins at that price.” F, 15:46)
• F: “It's a mistake, if you are a believer in it, to get rid of it now... The price where you buy an asset matters a hell of a lot.”

5. Technical Analysis and Historical Comparisons

Timestamp: 15:48–17:00

• The group breaks down the four-cycle model again and discusses how “sharp corrections” post-halving are expected (“we’re right mid-cycle, sharp corrections...” D, 15:48).
• The definition of correction varies:
  • For regular markets, 30% is severe; for Bitcoin, 70% can happen (“Correction is not 70%. That's a fall.” C, 16:42).
• They distinguish between ‘consolidation’ (possible now) and a full-blown collapse.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bitcoin’s Unique Predictability:

  "No other investment has ever done that...we know that bitcoin works in a four year cycle."
  — Rashad (C), 04:13

• Bear Market Reality Check:

  “If this is the bear market then the intelligent thing to do would just be to wait because...90,000 is not a good price to buy.”
  — Rashad (C), 07:28

• Duration of Crypto Bear Markets:

  “Bear markets with crypto usually last...12 to 18 months. Once the bear market hits we can, we're looking at like 2027, end of 2027 for a full recover to all time high.”
  — Rashad (C), 12:02

• Long-Term Outlook:

  “History has shown us that in 2028, 2029 [bitcoin] is going to be higher than what it is now.”
  — Rashad (C), 12:22

• Investor Mindset:

  "Now is not the time to panic."
  — Ian (F), 12:55

• On Buying Strategy:

  “The price where you buy an asset matters a hell of a lot.”
  — Ian (F), 14:13

• Institutional Safeguards:

  "The institutional, the Saudi fund. It's too many big players that will absorb the coins at that price."
  — Ian (F), 15:46

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle and Predictability: 03:49–05:37
• Debating the Bear Market Start: 05:43–07:28
• Bear Market Length & Historical Patterns: 12:02–12:22
• Investor Advice & Worst-Case Scenarios: 12:55–15:46
• Technical Analysis – Correction vs. Collapse: 15:48–17:00

Episode Tone

The episode maintains a conversational, insightful, and pragmatic tone. The hosts blend data and history with lighthearted banter and musical references, all while encouraging patience, strategic thinking, and steadfastness in times of market panic.

Summary Takeaways

• Bitcoin is in a familiar correction/bear cycle, which historically lasts 12–18 months.
• Current price ranges (with worst-case drops projected between $53,000–$63,000) represent both danger and opportunity.
• Panic selling is discouraged; smart buying during fear and volatility is advised for believers in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
• Major institutional players may prevent an extreme collapse.
• "Assume the worst, but prepare for the long term" is the underlying investment philosophy shared.

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode blends historical perspective, price forecasting, and level-headed investing advice to make sense of Bitcoin’s present volatility.