Investor Daily: What’s Next for Bitcoin? The Bear Market & Price Predictions

Summary

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Episode Overview

Podcast: Earn Your Leisure

Hosts: Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings

Episode Title: Investor Daily: What’s Next for Bitcoin? The Bear Market & Price Predictions

Date: November 21, 2025

Theme:
This episode dives deep into the current state of Bitcoin amidst a significant price drop, explores the fundamental nature of its bull and bear cycles, and features a spirited debate over price predictions, institutional influences, and strategies for both seasoned and new investors. The hosts contextualize Bitcoin’s present volatility by connecting it to historical cycles, discussing potential bottoms, and debating whether we’re already in a bear market or still in the midst of a temporary correction.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bitcoin’s Price Decline and Four-Year Cycle

Timestamp: 03:49–05:37

• At the time of recording, Bitcoin is trading at $92,000 and “dropping steadily.”
• A key technical event (“passed the death cross”) just occurred, signaling potential further weakness.
• Rashad (C) describes Bitcoin’s unique predictability, highlighting its consistent four-year boom-bust cycle:

  "It's the only investment that we actually know what's going to happen...it has four year cycles...it's always repeated the same cycle. Like no other investment has ever done that." (C, 03:49)

• The Bitcoin halving cycle is central: sharp drops (of 70–80%) typically follow bull markets, with eventual, inevitable recoveries.

2. Are We Already in the Bear Market?

Timestamp: 05:43–07:28

• The debate centers on whether this current phase marks the start of a new bear market or a short-term reset before another rally.
• Rashad (C) suggests that, based on past cycles and “ChatGBT’s perspective,” Bitcoin could drop as low as $30,000–$40,000 (a typical 70-75% drawdown), though “most people don't think that it'll fall that far because the institutional backing now that it didn't have before.”

  “No matter what, how you look at it, it's gonna drop...90,000 is not a good price to buy cause it's going to go lower than 90,000.” (C, 07:28)

3. Bear Market Duration and Outlook

Timestamp: 12:02–12:22

• Rashad (C) clarifies that bear markets in crypto “usually last... 12 to 18 months,” suggesting that if the bear has begun, a new all-time high may not arrive until “the end of 2027.”
• Despite current pessimism, he emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook:

  “Another thing that we do know about bitcoin is that it always goes up...we know that in 2028, 2029 it's going to be higher than what it is now.” (C, 12:20)

4. Investor Advice: Don’t Panic, Plan for the Worst Case

Timestamp: 12:55–15:46

• The conversation pivots to investor psychology and best practices during drawdowns.
• Ian (F) advises listeners not to panic, referencing a favorite song by Meek Mill and Rick Ross:

  “Don’t Panic. Now is not the time to panic.” (F, 12:55)

• Predicts a possible slide to the April lows ($77,453) and suggests buying in these ranges (“Should you pick up some at 77 and some change? Yes.”)
• Price floor theories:
  • F: “Worst case scenario, I have this going to... 53,524.”
  • D: “I had it at 60. 63 to 67.”
• Both stress assuming worst-case scenarios and being strategic about buying points, not just ‘buying at any price.’
• Strong institutional support is cited as a potential buffer against extreme declines (“The institutional, the Saudi fund. It's too many big players that will absorb the coins at that price.” F, 15:46)
• F: “It's a mistake, if you are a believer in it, to get rid of it now... The price where you buy an asset matters a hell of a lot.”

5. Technical Analysis and Historical Comparisons

Timestamp: 15:48–17:00

• The group breaks down the four-cycle model again and discusses how “sharp corrections” post-halving are expected (“we’re right mid-cycle, sharp corrections...” D, 15:48).
• The definition of correction varies:
  • For regular markets, 30% is severe; for Bitcoin, 70% can happen (“Correction is not 70%. That's a fall.” C, 16:42).
• They distinguish between ‘consolidation’ (possible now) and a full-blown collapse.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bitcoin’s Unique Predictability:

  "No other investment has ever done that...we know that bitcoin works in a four year cycle."
  — Rashad (C), 04:13

• Bear Market Reality Check:

  “If this is the bear market then the intelligent thing to do would just be to wait because...90,000 is not a good price to buy.”
  — Rashad (C), 07:28

• Duration of Crypto Bear Markets:

  “Bear markets with crypto usually last...12 to 18 months. Once the bear market hits we can, we're looking at like 2027, end of 2027 for a full recover to all time high.”
  — Rashad (C), 12:02

• Long-Term Outlook:

  “History has shown us that in 2028, 2029 [bitcoin] is going to be higher than what it is now.”
  — Rashad (C), 12:22

• Investor Mindset:

  "Now is not the time to panic."
  — Ian (F), 12:55

• On Buying Strategy:

  “The price where you buy an asset matters a hell of a lot.”
  — Ian (F), 14:13

• Institutional Safeguards:

  "The institutional, the Saudi fund. It's too many big players that will absorb the coins at that price."
  — Ian (F), 15:46

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle and Predictability: 03:49–05:37
• Debating the Bear Market Start: 05:43–07:28
• Bear Market Length & Historical Patterns: 12:02–12:22
• Investor Advice & Worst-Case Scenarios: 12:55–15:46
• Technical Analysis – Correction vs. Collapse: 15:48–17:00

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Episode Tone

The episode maintains a conversational, insightful, and pragmatic tone. The hosts blend data and history with lighthearted banter and musical references, all while encouraging patience, strategic thinking, and steadfastness in times of market panic.

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Summary Takeaways

• Bitcoin is in a familiar correction/bear cycle, which historically lasts 12–18 months.
• Current price ranges (with worst-case drops projected between $53,000–$63,000) represent both danger and opportunity.
• Panic selling is discouraged; smart buying during fear and volatility is advised for believers in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
• Major institutional players may prevent an extreme collapse.
• "Assume the worst, but prepare for the long term" is the underlying investment philosophy shared.

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For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode blends historical perspective, price forecasting, and level-headed investing advice to make sense of Bitcoin’s present volatility.

Transcript

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[C]

Bitcoin so interesting. $92,000 right now and it's been dropping steadily. So just passed the death cross two days ago, I think. So Bitcoin is interesting if you really think about it because it's the only investment that we actually know what's going to happen.

[F]

Tell me more.

[C]

Oh, because it has like if you follow history of the bitcoin, it has four year cycles, right? So you could like as an exercise, anybody at home, you can ask chat GBT the four year cycles of bitcoin, when the next bear market will come. Previous bear market. So it works in cycles now. Anything can happen in the future. But it's always repeated the same cycle. Like no other investment has ever done that. Like you can't say, okay, we know that Nvidia is going to do good for four years and it's going to be flat for two years and it's going to spike. We know that bitcoin works in a four year cycle. It drops very drastically, almost 70 to 80% previously. That's what it, that's what it has done follows the having. So like even if you follow it like the bear, the bear market is supposed to start next year. But some, some say the bear market has already started, which would be an early start. But it was, it was going to start. There's almost 100% chance that Bitcoin is going to drop drastically next year if you follow what historically has happened. So everybody knows. Well if you study, everybody knows that bitcoin is going to drop. Like that's, that's kind of like a cheat code almost if you really think about it. Because we know, we know what's going to happen now. The, the variables is exactly when it will drop, exactly how much it will drop.

[F]

I can tell you that. But we team. Come on. So maybe next week.

[C]

So now the question is like okay, is this the start of the OR already or are we already in the bear market or is this a short term reset and then we're going to push higher at the end of the year and then next year is gonna fall, but it's gonna fall. And I even, I actually chat GBT just to kind of get Chad GBT's perspective on it and like it how it's supposed to fall. Following traditional bitcoins is supposed to go to 30 or 40,000 because that's 70 to 75 drop. That's what it has done historically. But most people don't think that it'll fall that far because the institutional backing now that it didn't have before, so the institutional backing up or have it around 50, 60,000, what it'll drop to, but no matter what, how you look at it, it's gonna drop. But it's already been dropping. So now everybody, it's a, it's a, it's a panic because it's down pretty, pretty heavily. And then all the bitcoin related stocks, we'll talk about that microstrategy and, and a few others, those are down. And then of course since bitcoin is down, the ETFs are down and then whenever bitcoin goes down then all coin market goes down also. So the altcoins are down, XRP and Solana and all and all of that. So now the main question is now we know that Bitcoin is going to have a bear market. Is this the bear market? Because if this is the bear market then the intelligent thing to do would just be to wait because, because if it's the bear market, 90,000 is not a good price to buy cause it's going to go lower than 90,000. So do we. So the only question now is are we in a bear market? And if we are in a bear.

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[C]

And bear markets with crypto usually last. That's another thing. We know how long the bear market lasts 12 to 18 months.

[D]

So.

[C]

So it's not a short, it's not a short run. Once the bear market hits we can we're looking at like 2027 end of 2027 for a full recover to all time high. But another thing that we do know about bitcoin is that it always goes up.

[D]

So history has shown us that.

[C]

That's what I'm saying. So we know that in 2028, 2029 is going to be higher than what it is now. But all of all of these things lead to a pessimistic outlook for bitcoin for the next foreseeable future unless we get an end of year pump. And that could potentially change it for the short term. So are we gonna get an end of year pump or are we just gonna just ride this out for to 2027?

[F]

I answer both. Meek Mill, Rick Ross One of my favorite songs, Don't Panic. Don't Panic. Now is not the time to panic. The notion of value or like true value of what we we could get back to the april lows of like 77453 last month I did tell you we was going to slide into these 90s. Now is not the time to panic. I understand there's a lot of people who are saying the 30 and 40,000 price range for bitcoin. Remember last year or early this year I said Michael Sailor needs to be very careful because the only thing that I think would drive that price that low is if they want to get him out of that seat that he's in. I think that he has a plan to to work that regardless. But I Don't think we'll get to 30s and 40s. Should you pick up some at 77 and some change? Yes, prices are in stock club. Worst case scenario I have this going to.

[D]

Say it 50. Nah, I'll say my number and then you agree 50.

[F]

I see you with the hoop 53s.

[D]

I had it. I had it at 60. 63 to 67.

[F]

Yeah. 53, 5, 24 worst.

[D]

You're going lower than that.

[F]

But and here's the thing, as an investor, I'm not saying absolutely we'll go to for those you know, I mean but please write this down. You want to assume the worst case is basis first, not the best case. A lot of you are panicking because you bought it last week or two weeks ago. You should have bought the majority in April. And in addition with the having cycles, some want to be the preeminent force in crypto because they've seen his plan work. I kept saying I hope that he doesn't become new the new Cathie Wood. But when the institution going back to the program conversation when they want the strategy and the IP to use it for their own devices, they're going to find a way to to do so also too if we're going to have a cyclical downturn and every now we're back to risk on maybe there will be some flushing out. But I want to be very clear it's a mistake if you are a believer in it to get rid of it now too many people ask should I sell what I have now and wait to get in continue to buy. Now the mistake that I think Sailor made is that he kept buying at any price. The price where you buy an asset matters a hell of a lot. But worst case scenarios. 53 but if you believe in it, we can have a nice bump and I think at the right price, definitely at 50s and at 65. The institutional, the Saudi fund. It's too many big players that will absorb the coins at that price.

[D]

Yeah, that's why I said I was looking at the charts yesterday. I had it around 67. Yeah. I mean if you. I'll. I'll use the phrase that history shows us rather than. Than kind of what you were saying that we know because somebody was like oh they no history has shown us that in these cycles specifically what Shoddy was saying, it was like there's just four phases right now based on everything we've seen that we're in phase three. And so here's some things, some key indicators that you should find in, in phase three, which is like six to 18 months after having like we saw it having happened last April. So we're right mid, mid cycle, sharp corrections. And I don't know if we've had a sharp one yet. This feels like a pullback but consolidation is that next piece. And so that means you'll start to see it move sideways. Right. So if it's at 80, it's definitely sharp.

[C]

It's 30 drop.

[D]

Well we've seen steep, I'm saying for crypto we've seen that go down to 70%.

[C]

Correction, correction is not 70%. That's a, that's a fall if it's.

[D]

In the definition of Correction. Even still consolidated, 70 is collapsed though.

[C]

Yeah, that's not.

[D]

But that's what saying we, we can't even use collapse in, in terms of.

[C]

Bitcoin because we, but that's what it does because the correction, it's in, it's.

[D]

In correction mode right now when I'm saying correction. I don't want to confuse it when we're talking stocks. Right. Because bitcoin, the way that it moves, its volatility is very different. Earnest, what's up? You ever walk into a small business and everything just works like the checkout is fast, the receipts are digital, tipping is a breeze and you're out the door before the line even builds. Odds are they're using Square. We love supporting businesses that run on Square because it just feels seamless. Or whether it's a local coffee shop, a vendor at a pop up market or even one of our merch partners, Square makes it easy for them to take payments, manage inventory and run their business with confidence, all from one simple system. One of the things we love most is seeing neighborhood businesses level up. There's this West Indian spot right in our community that started with a small takeout counter. Now with Square, they've been able to expand into a full sit down restaurant and even started catering events or across the city. That's the kind of growth that inspires us. And it's powered by Square. Square is built for all types of businesses, from the corner bagel shop that turned into a local chain to the specialty market with thousands of unique items to the stylist who's been holding you down for years. If you're a business owner or even just thinking about launching something soon, Square is hands down one of the best tools out there to help you start, run and grow. It's not just about payments, it's about giving you time back so you can focus on what matters most ready to see how square can transform your business? Visit square.comgoeyl to learn more. That's square.comgoeyl don't wait. Don't hesitate. Let square handle the back end so you can keep pushing your vision forward.

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