Investor Daily: Why Novo Nordisk Can’t Beat Eli Lilly - The Pharma Drug War

Summary

Earn Your Leisure — Investor Daily: Why Novo Nordisk Can’t Beat Eli Lilly — The Pharma Drug War Episode Date: December 1, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode of Earn Your Leisure, hosted by Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings, digs deep into the fierce competition between pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Featuring a guest analyst, the discussion explores why Novo Nordisk, despite prior success with their blockbuster drug Ozempic, is struggling to keep pace with Eli Lilly in the expanding weight loss and pharmaceutical space. The hosts analyze recent financial setbacks at Novo, differences in business models, drug pipelines, and the broader implications for investors.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The State of Novo Nordisk (03:28–05:02)

• Novo’s Challenges: Novo Nordisk recently missed on an Alzheimer’s drug trial, leading to a significant stock decline, despite boasting extremely high gross margins (~89%).
• Comparison to Eli Lilly: The guest analyst likens Novo’s situation to comparing Meta (Facebook) to Snap: “Novo's not Lilly. It's not.” (03:59; Guest Analyst)
• Pipeline Comparison: Eli Lilly’s drug pipeline and executive management are considered significantly stronger.
• Moment Has Passed: While Novo enjoyed a period of massive growth (notably with Ozempic), the window for dominating the market has seemingly closed.

Quote: "Lilly's just a... just is a better company. This is like almost comparing Meta versus Snap."
— Guest Analyst, [03:45]

Ozempic’s Waning Advantage (05:02–10:25)

• Lack of Moat: The hosts discuss how Ozempic’s dominance is fading. Generic, white-label competition in the GLP-1 category is emerging, threatening Novo’s market share.
• Regulatory & Market Factors: Political and economic forces in the U.S. favor American companies like Eli Lilly, particularly in advertising and health plan integration.

Quote: “You don't have a moat on that drug like that.”
— Co-host, [05:02]

Quote: “Every fifth ad... you watch Good Morning America, you watch Today Show is going to be that American company… Tomorrow when you watch Good American, like damn sure I was right that they're going to make sure that they're going to promote Lily.”
— Co-host, [10:25]

Financial Performance and Stock Action (11:17–13:08)

• Stock Price Rollercoaster: Novo’s stock soared from $42 to $145 amid the GLP-1 hype but has crashed back to $45, the same price it was at in 2021.
• Investment Outlook: The hosts and analyst firmly advise against buying Novo at this stage, calling the stock’s performance and prospects “tough.”

Quote: “The stock is currently sitting here five years later at 45. Had a crazy run up obviously during the GLP phase up to 145, 147. And now we're right back down to where we were in 2021.”
— Co-host, [11:37]

• Long-term Underperformance: Since IPO, Novo has gained just 2.74% at its all-time low and given up 75% of its GLP-1-era gains.

Core Reasons Novo Can't Compete (11:48–13:08)

1. Unrealistic Expectations: Investor hype around GLP-1 drugs led to exaggerated projections.
2. Operational Bottlenecks: Novo’s manufacturing and capacity constraints limited their ability to fulfill demand.
3. Weight Loss Drug History: Every weight loss drug class has had boom-and-bust cycles due to safety or efficacy concerns.
4. Low Customer Lifetime Value: Weight loss slows after 1–2 years, limiting repeat sales.
5. Eli Lilly’s Strength: Compared to Novo, Lilly is described as “the Nvidia of healthcare.” (12:45)

Quote: "The expectations for the GLP-1 was too high. The manufacturing bottlenecks and capacity limits were another issue... Like if you go back to the ally drug, like this category of weight loss drugs has always had some issues.”
— Guest Analyst, [11:52]

The Future of GLP-1 and the Race for the Pill (13:08–13:50)

• The Next Battleground: Pill form GLP-1 drugs could be a game-changer. Novo’s failure to successfully bring a pill to market gives Lilly an edge.
• Healthcare Plan Integration: Lilly is already dropping drug costs and working to embed GLP-1s into health plans, giving them another competitive advantage.

Quote: “My assumption would probably be Lilly gets to the pill form first and that that changes a lot of things.”
— Co-host, [13:40]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Lilly's just a one of one company... there's no point where you look at Novo and say these two are the same.”
  — Guest Analyst, [03:43]

• “Ozempic was a thing. It almost became the band-aid of its adhesives. Right. But you don't have a moat on that drug.”
  — Co-host, [05:02]

• “The weight loss drug cycle of boom and bust has always been a short cycle of wins and extreme losses...not a sustainable product line... your fighting a monster that cannot be defeated.”
  — Guest Analyst, [12:27]

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Key Segment Timestamps

• 03:28 — Analysis of Novo’s missed Alzheimer’s drug, financials, and gross margins.
• 04:45 — Comparing Novo’s business and management to Eli Lilly.
• 05:02 — Discussion on Ozempic’s shrinking moat.
• 10:25 — Competition, U.S. market bias, and GLP market crowding.
• 11:17 — Novo’s stock price journey and investment warning.
• 11:48 — Top three reasons for Novo’s struggles.
• 13:08 — The potential impact and timing of a GLP-1 pill form.

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Final Takeaways

• Novo Nordisk's Glory Days May Be Over: The company is unlikely to return to its recent highs or overtake Eli Lilly in the near or mid-term.
• Eli Lilly Reigns Supreme: With a superior pipeline, more robust operations, and strong U.S. market presence, Lilly is seen as the clear winner.
• Investor Caution Advised: Both the hosts and guest analyst strongly discourage investing in Novo Nordisk given current conditions and competitive landscape.
• The Future is in the Pill: Whoever wins the race to a safe, effective oral GLP-1 will dominate the next phase of the market. Right now, that looks to be Eli Lilly’s to lose.

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This summary was prepared for listeners seeking an in-depth understanding of the competitive landscape between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, providing key insights, memorable moments, and strategic analysis straight from the original conversation.

Transcript

[Host]

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[Guest Analyst]

So what is the deal with Novo? Is this opportunity to buy Novo? Hell no. Harold might have looked like Jordan when Jordan was out of the league playing baseball because David Starr made him sit down. But when Jordan came back, Harold might have shot the hair on his family because I don't know why. But no Novo. They missed on an Alzheimer's drug. And it's the crazy part that's interesting. They fallen this much and isn't Novos operate or net margin or gross margin 89 like how do you have a gross margin that wide and that stock does that? No, Lily's a one of one company and I have no bias towards any of these, but Lily's just a. Just is a better company. This is like almost comparing Meta versus Snap. I like Evan, I like to got glasses and when the girls had the little filters eight years ago it was fire. But they're not Meta. Novo's not Lily. It's not. I think if you look at an executive management drug, the results of the drugs, the pipeline that they have for the next five years, the return on assets, return on equity, there's no point where you look at Novo and say these two are the same. They had a great moment, great. But it's over with. I'm not saying that the company's dead. They're not going to be delisted. But would they ever be Eli Lilly or Amgen?

[Co-host]

No.

[Host]

No.

[Co-host]

Yes. It's. It doesn't look great. It doesn't look great. They, you know, Ozempic was a thing. It almost became the band aid of his adhesives. Right. But you don't have a moat on that that drug like that.

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[Co-host]

Affiliates excludes Massachusetts so when Zipbound comes out, other GLPs come out less lesser known. Even some fun white label GLP comes out, that's going to cut into your business model. And again, when you have an administration that is hellbound on making sure that American companies thrive. We're not an American company. Well, every 5th AD, when you watch Good Morning America, you watch Today show is going to be that American company. Tomorrow when you watch good American, like damn sure I was right that they're going to make sure that they're going to promote Lily. And because it has obviously a superior product, but it has the motive of having to not rely on one thing, the Alzheimer's pill. This is like the third. I feel like this is like the third time that this has not worked.

[Guest Analyst]

Not worked?

[Co-host]

Yep. I don't know how many chances they're gonna get to not have it work. The stock is now trading at the 5. Five years ago, was that in 2021? It was trading at $42. And the stock is currently sitting here five years later at 45. Had a crazy run up obviously during the GLP phase up to 145, 147. And now we're right back down to where we were in 2021. Yeah, gonna be tough. I, I would, I would definitely not invest in this.

[Guest Analyst]

If you look since inception, when they IPO or their all time low is 2.74% since the high, they almost have given up 75 of all those gains I put in stock Club earlier 10 reasons why they have underperformed, but I'll give three here. The expectations for the GLP, one was too high. The manufacturing bottlenecks and capacity limits were another issue. And then also too like outside of Lily, the weight loss drug cycle of boom and bust has always been a short cycle of wins and extreme losses. Like if you go back to the ally drug, like this category of weight loss drugs has always had some issues, whether it was with ephedrine or heart issues or gut issues. This isn't a sustainable product line that will work long enough to allow you to build a business around it to be able to be okay, no. And then weight loss slows after one to two years. So in the best case scenario, after two years, it's the end of the product cycle. So the lifetime customer value is lower than every other competitor that you have for other drugs that are doing incredibly well. Like Lily is damn near the Nvidia of healthcare. You're, you're fighting a monster that cannot be defeated.

[Co-host]

Yeah, this might not be one of Those situations where number two is actually they already announced that they're out. They're trying to get GLPs to be a part of healthcare plans. They've already, we talked about this a few weeks ago. They're dropping the price costs over the first six months. Right. They're trying to do all the things I think when you have pill form because that's the thing, right? Like who gets to the GLP pill first and when you have a pill form fail for a different drug, well that puts a that red flag. Hey, this is another pill that has failed for them. That's failed for them. We'll get to it first. My assumption would probably be Lily gets to the pill form first and that that changes a lot of things. And if they can get the right price, obviously put that a part of people's healthcare plans. Earnest, what's up? You ever walk into a small business and everything just works like the checkout is fast, the receipts are digital, tipping is a breeze and you're out the door before the line even builds. Odds are they're using Square. We love supporting businesses that run on Square because it just feels seamless. Whether it's a local coffee shop, a vendor at a pop up market or even one of our merch partners, Square makes it easy for them to take payments, manage inventory and run their business with confidence all from one simple system. One of the things we love most is seeing neighborhood businesses level up. There's this West Indian spot right in our community that started with a small takeout counter. Now with Square, they've been able to expand into a full sit down restaurant and even started catering events across the city. That's the kind of growth that inspires us and it's powered by Square. Square is built for all types of businesses from the corner bagel shop that turned into a local chain to to the specialty market with thousands of unique items to the stylist who's been holding you down for years. If you're a business owner or even just thinking about launching something soon, Square is hands down one of the best tools out there to help you start, run and grow. It's not just about payments, it's about giving you time back so you can focus on what matters most. Ready to see how Square can transform your business? Visit square.comgoeylash to learn more. That's square.comgoeyl. don't wait, don't hesitate. Let Square handle the back end so you can keep pushing your vision forward.

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