Earn Your Leisure — Investor Daily: Why Novo Nordisk Can’t Beat Eli Lilly — The Pharma Drug War Episode Date: December 1, 2025
Episode Overview
This episode of Earn Your Leisure, hosted by Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings, digs deep into the fierce competition between pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Featuring a guest analyst, the discussion explores why Novo Nordisk, despite prior success with their blockbuster drug Ozempic, is struggling to keep pace with Eli Lilly in the expanding weight loss and pharmaceutical space. The hosts analyze recent financial setbacks at Novo, differences in business models, drug pipelines, and the broader implications for investors.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
The State of Novo Nordisk (03:28–05:02)
- Novo’s Challenges: Novo Nordisk recently missed on an Alzheimer’s drug trial, leading to a significant stock decline, despite boasting extremely high gross margins (~89%).
- Comparison to Eli Lilly: The guest analyst likens Novo’s situation to comparing Meta (Facebook) to Snap: “Novo's not Lilly. It's not.” (03:59; Guest Analyst)
- Pipeline Comparison: Eli Lilly’s drug pipeline and executive management are considered significantly stronger.
- Moment Has Passed: While Novo enjoyed a period of massive growth (notably with Ozempic), the window for dominating the market has seemingly closed.
Quote: "Lilly's just a... just is a better company. This is like almost comparing Meta versus Snap."
— Guest Analyst, [03:45]
Ozempic’s Waning Advantage (05:02–10:25)
- Lack of Moat: The hosts discuss how Ozempic’s dominance is fading. Generic, white-label competition in the GLP-1 category is emerging, threatening Novo’s market share.
- Regulatory & Market Factors: Political and economic forces in the U.S. favor American companies like Eli Lilly, particularly in advertising and health plan integration.
Quote: “You don't have a moat on that drug like that.”
— Co-host, [05:02]
Quote: “Every fifth ad... you watch Good Morning America, you watch Today Show is going to be that American company… Tomorrow when you watch Good American, like damn sure I was right that they're going to make sure that they're going to promote Lily.”
— Co-host, [10:25]
Financial Performance and Stock Action (11:17–13:08)
- Stock Price Rollercoaster: Novo’s stock soared from $42 to $145 amid the GLP-1 hype but has crashed back to $45, the same price it was at in 2021.
- Investment Outlook: The hosts and analyst firmly advise against buying Novo at this stage, calling the stock’s performance and prospects “tough.”
Quote: “The stock is currently sitting here five years later at 45. Had a crazy run up obviously during the GLP phase up to 145, 147. And now we're right back down to where we were in 2021.”
— Co-host, [11:37]
- Long-term Underperformance: Since IPO, Novo has gained just 2.74% at its all-time low and given up 75% of its GLP-1-era gains.
Core Reasons Novo Can't Compete (11:48–13:08)
- Unrealistic Expectations: Investor hype around GLP-1 drugs led to exaggerated projections.
- Operational Bottlenecks: Novo’s manufacturing and capacity constraints limited their ability to fulfill demand.
- Weight Loss Drug History: Every weight loss drug class has had boom-and-bust cycles due to safety or efficacy concerns.
- Low Customer Lifetime Value: Weight loss slows after 1–2 years, limiting repeat sales.
- Eli Lilly’s Strength: Compared to Novo, Lilly is described as “the Nvidia of healthcare.” (12:45)
Quote: "The expectations for the GLP-1 was too high. The manufacturing bottlenecks and capacity limits were another issue... Like if you go back to the ally drug, like this category of weight loss drugs has always had some issues.”
— Guest Analyst, [11:52]
The Future of GLP-1 and the Race for the Pill (13:08–13:50)
- The Next Battleground: Pill form GLP-1 drugs could be a game-changer. Novo’s failure to successfully bring a pill to market gives Lilly an edge.
- Healthcare Plan Integration: Lilly is already dropping drug costs and working to embed GLP-1s into health plans, giving them another competitive advantage.
Quote: “My assumption would probably be Lilly gets to the pill form first and that that changes a lot of things.”
— Co-host, [13:40]
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
“Lilly's just a one of one company... there's no point where you look at Novo and say these two are the same.”
— Guest Analyst, [03:43] -
“Ozempic was a thing. It almost became the band-aid of its adhesives. Right. But you don't have a moat on that drug.”
— Co-host, [05:02] -
“The weight loss drug cycle of boom and bust has always been a short cycle of wins and extreme losses...not a sustainable product line... your fighting a monster that cannot be defeated.”
— Guest Analyst, [12:27]
Key Segment Timestamps
- 03:28 — Analysis of Novo’s missed Alzheimer’s drug, financials, and gross margins.
- 04:45 — Comparing Novo’s business and management to Eli Lilly.
- 05:02 — Discussion on Ozempic’s shrinking moat.
- 10:25 — Competition, U.S. market bias, and GLP market crowding.
- 11:17 — Novo’s stock price journey and investment warning.
- 11:48 — Top three reasons for Novo’s struggles.
- 13:08 — The potential impact and timing of a GLP-1 pill form.
Final Takeaways
- Novo Nordisk's Glory Days May Be Over: The company is unlikely to return to its recent highs or overtake Eli Lilly in the near or mid-term.
- Eli Lilly Reigns Supreme: With a superior pipeline, more robust operations, and strong U.S. market presence, Lilly is seen as the clear winner.
- Investor Caution Advised: Both the hosts and guest analyst strongly discourage investing in Novo Nordisk given current conditions and competitive landscape.
- The Future is in the Pill: Whoever wins the race to a safe, effective oral GLP-1 will dominate the next phase of the market. Right now, that looks to be Eli Lilly’s to lose.
This summary was prepared for listeners seeking an in-depth understanding of the competitive landscape between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, providing key insights, memorable moments, and strategic analysis straight from the original conversation.