Is Netflix the New Cable? Mega Deals, Paramount Drama & Why You Should Hold Long-Term

Summary

Earn Your Leisure Podcast – Episode Summary

Episode: Is Netflix the New Cable? Mega Deals, Paramount Drama & Why You Should Hold Long-Term
Hosts: Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings
Date: December 28, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings analyze Netflix's evolution, comparing it to the cable TV giants of previous generations. They break down recent high-stakes deals—especially the Netflix/Paramount/Skydance drama, Oracle’s involvement, and the broader future of media. The hosts put a strong emphasis on long-term investment strategies, using Netflix as a bellwether for investment discipline in tech-media. They also touch on the integration of podcasts, live content, and high-profile acquisitions as Netflix’s way to build an unbreakable moat.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Is Netflix Becoming the New Cable?

• Comparison to Traditional Cable:
  Netflix is positioning itself as this generation's cable provider by increasing investments in content and infrastructure.

  • Rashad (B): “Netflix… is them building a moat in front of our face.” (04:42)

• Content and Platform Growth:

  • Live sports (NFL on Christmas, high-profile boxing), hit originals (‘Stranger Things’), and new partnerships (including major podcast networks).
  • Notable moves to make content a daily habit, not just a seasonal binge.

2. Investor Strategy: Why You Should Hold Netflix for the Long Term

• Consistent Message to Listeners:

  • Rashad (B): “Just hold. Be faithful to your portfolio so you can be free. None of this three month, six month… Everything has to be five years.” (12:43)
  • Advice is grounded in the view that key tech/media players all operate on 20–30 year timelines.

• Steady Growth Outlook:

  • The days of 35–40% YoY stock gains might be over, but solid 15–20% annual growth is expected.
  • “Is Netflix a buy? Yes. They are the verb in the category and probably one of the best run companies in the media space.” (05:18)

3. Mega Deals & The Paramount and Oracle Drama

• Larry Ellison’s Personal Guarantee:

  • Paramount may leverage a $40 billion guarantee from Oracle’s Larry Ellison to support investments and mergers (likely connected to Skydance and the broader struggle for media consolidation).
  • Troy (F): “Him saying, Look, I’m putting 40 billion up guaranteed is interesting… That tells you how important to them having that network is in terms of spreading the messages that they want, have a control of the messages that they want and having media.”* (13:28–13:52)

• Strategic Positioning:

  • The power play is about controlling access to eyeballs and messaging, with media arms seen as crucial in both business and politics.
  • Rashad (B): “If you can go back into that White House and say, well, I can get you 36 more million viewers per month, that'll secure the financing that you need for the other ventures to go.” (14:51)

• Paramount/Skydance Merger:

  • The need for backend (“Dad said, look, I know I'm worth 250. His 40 guaranteed forecast deal, all cash deal.”) (14:33–14:51)

4. Media Evolution: Daily User Habit and the Podcast Play

• Beyond TV Shows—The Podcast Expansion:

  • Netflix’s deals with iHeart and push into podcasting (adding a daily media touchpoint) signal a transformation into an all-in-one entertainment platform.
  • Troy (F): “When you watch Netflix, you watch a show, you're done with it in a day. Well, how can I become a part of your daily life if I don't have sports every day? What are people doing every day? A lot of people are listening to podcasts...”* (11:49–12:13)

• Long-Term Cultural Integration:

  • Combining streaming media, live events, and daily content draws users in more persistently—akin to the daily place legacy cable once held.

5. Macro Perspective: Media Consolidation as “War Games”

• Geopolitical & Business Angle:

  • Media access isn’t just about entertainment; it’s coded as a “war game” for influence, information, and financing ("War Games… it is not time to play at all.”) (15:02)
  • Examples given: Dana White (UFC) and Vince McMahon (WWE) maneuvering major sales and political alignments.

• Key Guidance:

  • Rashad (B): “Deploy capital into the best assets on Earth.” (15:41–15:43)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Holding Long-Term:

  • Rashad: “Be faithful to your portfolio so you can be free. None of this three month, six month… Everything has to be five years.” (12:43)

• Netflix’s Moat:

  • “All the investment that they're going to put into future content to now become our generation's version of cable, is them building a moat in front of our face.” — Rashad (04:42)

• On Ellison Investment:

  • “Larry Ellison is personally guaranteeing billions of dollars for the benefit of his son.” — Troy (13:28)
  • “If you can go back into that White House and say, well, I can get you 36 more million viewers per month, that'll secure the financing that you need…” — Rashad (14:51)

• On the podcast play:

  • “If I can't do it in live sports, I'm gonna do it in something that is also entertaining you, which is podcast, which is a huge business.” — Troy (12:14)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |---------------|------------| | 04:19 | Netflix as a new "cable" & investor perspective | | 05:55 | Stock split, merger speculation, and why to hold long-term | | 11:05 | Netflix’s quarterly content & podcast expansion | | 12:43 | Portfolio discipline advice—5-year+ holding | | 13:28–15:01 | Paramount-Oracle mega deal, Ellison’s guarantee, and media “war games” | | 15:41 | “Deploy capital into the best assets on Earth” – final actionable investment advice |

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Conclusion

The episode provides a robust, investor-focused analysis of Netflix's evolving strategy as it shifts from pure streaming to a conglomerate rivaling traditional cable. The conversation demystifies recent mega-deals (Paramount/Skydance, Oracle), emphasizes the importance of thinking in years, not months, and frames modern media as a field for both business dominance and broader influence. The tone is urgent but optimistic—advising listeners to stay the course, invest in best-in-class assets, and ignore the short-term noise.

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For listeners:
If you’re an investor or anyone curious about the business of entertainment, this discussion is a must-listen, packed with actionable insight, rigor, and sharp cultural analysis straight from the Earn Your Leisure team.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

So Netflix has been making a lot.

[F]

Of news this whole entire year, but.

[B]

That was one of the questions is, is it going to pass over a hundred dollars anytime soon? Yes. I mean I think that's an easy target for them to hit. But I think the fallen of Netflix is a canary in the coal mine for what's to come. But the reason why I keep telling people to double down now because you see all the companies doing it. Troy, you just brought up infrastructure and data centers. But even for Paramount to come back and say, well, Larry Ellison would personally guarantee you're okay. So when people ask what to moat Netflix having that fight this weekend and all the investment that they're going to put into future content to now become our generation's version of cable, is them building a moat in front of our face? Will they go back to 100?

[C]

Yes.

[B]

Are we going to still see the 35, 40 year over year gains? Probably not. But could they eke out 15 to 20% gains? Yes. Is Netflix a buy? Yes. They are the verb in the category and probably one of the best run companies in the media space. Like you look at what everything Netflix has done, Disney has dropped the ball on what they should have done. Now there's a lot of regulatory reasons and personal vendettas inside of why. But would it get back to 100. Yes. Hope for the long term.

[F]

Yeah, you got it.

[B]

I mean, you'll be fine. You gotta.

[F]

You gotta hold Netflix. I mean, Netflix has come into an interesting time. Obviously the stock split happens and then the potential merger here. It's interesting.

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[A]

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[G]

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[E]

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[F]

This is their quarter. Like, this is the quarter where you start to see what they're rolling out for their future. Obviously, another fight. More live sports. With the NFL happening on Christmas here, Stranger Things is. Is blowing out all of its expectations. But inside of that, they got the Diddy documentary. Like, I know we can say what we want, how we feel about it, but you're Talking about over 3 billion views for a documentary that you didn't even expect to be on the docket.

[B]

Yep.

[F]

And so that tells you, all right, this, this, there's growth here. People are really watching it. And people are subscribing at records. And then you go into the. The Iheart deal and it's like, okay, well, that's significant because now they want to be a part of your daily life.

[B]

Right.

[F]

Because when you watch Netflix, you watch a show, you're done with it in a day. Well, how can I become a part of your daily life if I don't have sports every day? What are people doing every day? Well, a lot of people are listening to podcasts on a daily basis.

[B]

Yeah.

[F]

And if they have the video component, you're probably watching that on a daily basis or at some point during your week. So if I can be part of your weekly schedule as opposed to, hey, Stranger Things is. Is done. I watch it all. Or switch.

[B]

Seasonal.

[F]

It's seasonal. I'm done with it. Remember when Narcos was a thing, we were, you know, we're done with that in a weekend. How can I become part of your everyday ritual if I can't do it in live sports, I'm gonna do it in something that is also entertaining you, which is podcast, which is a huge business. Obviously, you know, we're a part of that business. The growth is there, the potential is there. This merger has kind of curveballed it a little bit, but I still like Netflix long term. I'm in. I got a few positions in Netflix.

[B]

Hope for the long term. Yo, but we've been screaming the same thing. Like, just hold. Be faithful to your portfolio so you can be free. Put it in chat. None of this three month, six months. Everything has to be five years. Like, everyone in tech is playing 20 and 30 year games right now. Larry Ellison is personally guaranteeing billions of dollars for the benefit of his son. And people are worried about a three month run. Hold for. I've been telling you since beginning, hold for five years, stay inside. Because a lot of y' all who popping it on the gram, you're hurting right now. Derek just told you, I can see who living through the business. You got lifestyle businesses and then guess what, they keep raising the prices on everything. Yeah, lifestyle games.

[F]

The Larry Ellison thing is, I mean we've been talking about him for a year now in terms of the moves that he's making, obviously from Stargate. And then with tick tock, tick tock quietly, like all the news with the Paramount potential merger with Warner Brothers, you know, they got approved and now they got 50 ownership in TikTok which you know, kind of said like if you look at who's doing the cloud server for TikTok, it was Oracle. In 2020, they got that deal. They were going to be the leader to be in the investment. But him saying, Look, I'm putting 40 billion up guaranteed is interesting because two weeks ago when the CFO of Netflix was on, he said that that was not part of the deal. Two weeks later, now they got a personal guarantee for 40 billion which tell you how important to them having that network is in terms of spreading the messages that they want, have a control of the messages that they want and having media. So one thing that the Ellison Group and I say group because David is the son at the head of Skydance in Paramount. Larry is obviously the dad and head of Oracle. They don't have a media arm the way that they want to.

[C]

Right.

[F]

And I told during that class, look, Paramount does not make money. Skydance does make some money, but not enough to have this merger. Where were they going to get the back end? Dad said, look, I know I'm worth 250. His 40 guaranteed forecast deal, all cash deal.

[B]

Because in the next election, if you can go back into that White House and say, well, I can get you 36 more million viewers per month, that'll secure the financing that you need for.

[F]

The other ventures to go.

[B]

Well, this is war Games. That's why like the tone that you it's like it is not time to play at all. Notice and the people who sold off their companies in the last few years. The UFC selling was interesting. Then Dana ended up in the White House and on the board of Meta Meta's involvement in the White House. Vince McMahon walking away. But then they cut his legs from underneath him and told every little secret that was the first Diddy doc to lower the valuation. Please, I am begging you. Because you don't know when we're gonna end the show. Just one day we just gonna pop up and be like, it's been fun. Deploy capital into the best assets on Earth.

[C]

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[A]

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[G]

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[E]

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