Podcast Summary: Earn Your Leisure

Episode: “The Coinbase Trap: Why Short-Term Trades are DANGEROUS Right Now!”
Date: February 21, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings (plus guest analysts)
Production: iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

This episode takes a deep dive into the recent volatility in Coinbase shares, using its latest earnings event as a high-profile case study to highlight the dangers of short-term trading—specifically options strategies like puts. The hosts break down how technical, fundamental, and behavioral factors can undermine the best-laid trade plans, especially in turbulent markets. Listeners are guided through both the logic behind a recent options play and the emotional roller coaster that often follows.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Coinbase Earnings Play – Setup & Logic

[01:20 – 03:55]

• Short-Term Trade Risks: Analyst 1 recounts getting burned on short-term trades and flags Coinbase as a current example.

  “Short term trades … factors could work against you that you don’t have control over … you gotta be extremely careful.” – Analyst 1 (01:20)

• Sector Context: Analyst 2 details sector-wide poor performance:
  • Bitcoin and overall crypto prices have been in a downward trend;
  • Robinhood’s weak crypto earnings foreshadowed the trend;
  • About 34% of Coinbase’s crypto revenue is tied directly to Bitcoin (03:10);
  • All data suggested Coinbase would miss on earnings.
• The Trade Decision:
  • Host describes buying a “put” (betting on a fall) just before earnings, citing multiple negative catalysts.
  • After-hours trading briefly confirms the expected dip, leading to initial excitement.

2. The Trap in Practice – How the Market Moved

[03:55 – 05:28]

• Surprise Rally:
  • Despite poor results, after-hours trading sent Coinbase up sharply, baffling the analysts.

  “I watched it go to 148... after hours, we can’t control it... In the morning, it’s at 154. Coinbase ends up closing at 164… We lose on the put.” – Analyst 2 (03:59–04:30)

• Market Mechanics:
  • Speculation that institutional buyers—not retail traders—propped up Coinbase on weak results.
  • Analyst 2 emphasizes the lesson: short-sellers can be “squeezed” out when unexpected rallies force them to cover losing trades.

3. Short-Term Options: Why They’re So Risky

[05:22 – 06:20]

• Short vs. Long-Term Holds:
  • Analyst 3 asks what timeframe offers better odds for options trades.
  • Analyst 2 recommends longer durations (“a month, month and a half at the max”; 06:20) and reminds they've rarely used puts—highlighting the rarity and riskiness of such strategies.

4. Earnings Surprises and Stock Behavior

[06:20 – 07:49]

• Catalyst Disappointments:
  • Momentum sometimes trumps fundamentals, with bad news not always leading to price drops.

  “Sometimes earnings could be terrible and you'll see a crazy bounce up $20, and earnings can be great and a stock will be flat or actually pull back.” – Analyst 2 (06:20)

• Risk & Research:
  • Analyst 3 recommends back-testing, using tools like Claude, and paying attention to “average true range” before setting stop losses to avoid whipsaws.
  • The panel agrees that in this market conditions, traders should allow enough time and not over-tighten stop losses.

5. Analyst Ratings & Market Reactions

[07:49 – 08:19]

• Double Downgrade Ignored:
  • Coinbase was “double downgraded” to “sell” by institutional analysts coinciding with earnings, yet the stock rallied, further supporting the idea that external factors can overrule fundamental analysis.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Paradox of Earnings Reactions:

  “Missed on earnings, missed on revenue, future guidance is weak ... everything you could think of is in it ... This should be a pullback.” – Analyst 2 (03:55)

• On The Powerlessness of Traders Against Market Forces:

  “After hours, we can't control it. ... You can't do anything again till 9:30 when the market opens.” – Analyst 2 (03:59)

• Institutional vs. Retail:

  “It wasn't retail that led that charge. But kudos to the institutional buyers. I see you.” – Analyst 3 (05:22)

• On Embracing Longer Timeframes:

  “If we do a put, it's usually going to be a week, two weeks, three weeks out ... I think a month, month and a half at the max.” – Analyst 2 (06:20)

• On Market Whipsaws:

  "Futures market may drop and then you'll see a dead cat bounce and hit your stop and then go back to that direction ... Be mindful, especially in this market … your stop loss is not too tight." – Analyst 3 (07:22)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:20]: Start of Coinbase trade discussion – warning about short-term trades
• [03:10]: Tying Coinbase’s revenue to Bitcoin and market sector analysis
• [04:00 – 04:30]: Emotional roller-coaster on earnings day – put option goes bad
• [05:22]: Discussion of short seller squeeze and institutional market action
• [06:08]: Advice on options timeframes; longer puts are safer
• [06:20]: Real-life example: good/bad earnings don’t always match price moves
• [07:22]: Technical tips for futures/stop losses
• [07:49]: Coinbase’s double downgrade discussed
• [08:19]: Transition to next episode promo – end of main content

Key Takeaways

• Short-term options trading around earnings is especially risky: Even “perfect” setups can be undermined by surprise market behavior.
• Market reactions often defy logic: Bad results can trigger rallies, and all the expected catalysts may not materialize.
• Liquidity and institutional activity dominate: Sometimes big players push stocks in opposite directions to fundamentals.
• Use longer timeframes, proper research, and test strategies: Avoid tight stop-losses and too-short options. Do your homework and backtest ranges.

This episode underscores the hazardous, unpredictable nature of short-term trading and delivers a cautionary tale for those tempted by seemingly obvious bets against companies like Coinbase. Expert analysis is balanced with personal trade lessons and practical risk management tips, all in Earn Your Leisure’s signature conversational tone.