Podcast Summary: Earn Your Leisure

Episode: The Future of Crypto, Bitcoin, & Prediction Markets
Date: December 15, 2025
Hosts: Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings
Guest: Vlad Tenev (CEO, Robinhood)
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

In this thought-provoking episode, Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings sit down with Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev for a deep dive into the future of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and the rise of prediction markets. The conversation explores how crypto is democratizing global finance, the unique trajectory of Bitcoin, Robinhood’s bold move into prediction markets, and how new forms of trading are blending financial literacy, tech innovation, and even sports in 2025.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Globalization of Crypto & Stablecoins

[03:31 - 05:37]

• Crypto's broader impact: Vlad Tenev explains that cryptocurrency’s biggest “needle mover” will be globalizing access to high-quality investments previously exclusive to US investors.

  “We kind of take it for granted here that we have the US dollar, we have access to US stocks, we have really high-quality assets... If you’re in Venezuela, you don’t have access to those things.” – Vlad Tenev [03:56]

• Stablecoins as global tools: In countries with unstable currencies or failed central banks, stablecoins became the go-to for storing wealth in US dollars.

  “Stablecoins really became popular as a way to store your wealth in US dollars because...the crypto companies actually went in and built local rails connecting to all these markets.” – Vlad Tenev [04:28]

• Future vision: Tokenization will help distribute US stocks and investments globally “as easily as stablecoins have done it for dollars.”

  “Crypto...will help stitch together all of the markets and make it so that everyone is on a level playing field outside the US as we are in here.” – Vlad Tenev [05:24]

2. Is Vlad a “Bitcoin Maxi”?

[05:37 - 06:28]

• Balanced perspective: Vlad clarifies he is not a “bitcoin maxi” (someone who believes only in Bitcoin), but he is a fan.

  “I’m not a bitcoin maxi. Yeah, I mean I’m a bitcoin fan and I think bitcoin has an inherent advantage...It’s a singular asset. Right. It’ll always be the first.” – Vlad Tenev [05:42]

• Bitcoin’s status: Describes Bitcoin as having “a bit of a religion around it,” making it uniquely resilient compared to other cryptocurrencies.

3. Robinhood and the Rise of Prediction Markets

[06:28 - 16:26]

• Correlation with Bitcoin’s rise: The hosts note a correlation between the rise in Bitcoin prices (up to $126,000) and Robinhood’s stock performance, attributing part of this to the popularity of prediction markets.

• Prediction markets explained:

  • Move from niche to mainstream: Robinhood adopted prediction markets quickly, staying ahead of the curve compared to competitors.

  • Vlad recalls how Robinhood typically entered new markets (stocks, crypto) late, but with prediction markets, they’re “out in front.”

    “Prediction markets is a new one for us because we were kind of out in front of, and then it’s sort of like how do we maintain our lead and market positioning.” – Vlad Tenev [12:05]

  • Rapid growth: Contracts expanded from just the US presidential election to 1,500+ across categories.

    “We’ve gone from...one single contract, which is the presidential election, to over 1,500. We’ve gone from...the volume is doubled quarter over quarter.” – Vlad Tenev [13:27]

    • Impressive numbers: In November alone, 3 billion contracts traded, $30M revenue; annualized run rate now $360M.

• Beyond Just Sports:

  • Diversification: Starting with elections, Robinhood has broadened to sports leagues and now AI model outcomes.

  • Sports betting vs. prediction markets: Vlad prefers calling it “wagering” because it’s fundamentally different, especially by allowing contract trading during the game.

    “What people love about it is you can actually trade these contracts during the game...because it’s a two-sided market.” – Vlad Tenev [15:03]

  • Prediction contracts draw in sophisticated traders, and may disrupt traditional sports books.

  • Regulatory differences: Prediction markets are inherently different in product and regulation, attracting different types of participants—often from the world of futures and equity trading.

4. Prediction Markets as “The New News”

[16:26 - 18:07]

• Beyond sports – betting on AI: Vlad highlights contracts on AI model outcomes, e.g., Google’s Gemini vs. OpenAI’s GPT, where “conventional wisdom was wrong.”

  “Four months ago, it was, I think, 35% chance that Gemini would have the best model by the end of the year...for folks that really kind of understood what was happening in the AI world, it seemed like conventional wisdom was wrong.” – Vlad Tenev [16:36]

• Markets as information: Prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced wisdom, becoming a source of “what’s likely or what’s even true.”

  “It creates a new source of information...instead of watching talking heads pontificating, you can just look at the market and then you’ll learn a little bit about what’s likely or what’s even true in this world.” – Vlad Tenev [17:27]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On global financial access and crypto:

  “Crypto...will help stitch together all of the markets and make it so that everyone is on a level playing field outside the US as we are in here.” – Vlad Tenev [05:24]

• On prediction market growth:

  “November numbers. Three billion contracts traded in November, which is, yeah, it’s a $30 million revenue in a month...it’s the fastest growing business that Robinhood’s had.” – Vlad Tenev [13:46]

• On prediction markets as a new information ecosystem:

  “It’s almost like...the new media or new news—what’s likely or what’s even true in this world.” – Vlad Tenev [17:27]

• On the connection between knowledge and markets:

  “For a trader, it’s going to open up more possibilities...there’s probably at least one topic that each person understands better than the average conventional wisdom.” – Vlad Tenev [17:07]

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-------------|------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:31-05:37 | Crypto’s global role, stablecoins in emerging markets | | 05:37-06:28 | Bitcoin’s status, “maxi” philosophy, uniqueness | | 06:28-07:14 | Prediction markets and Robinhood’s adoption | | 12:05-14:46 | Robinhood’s market lead, growth metrics, contract expansion| | 14:46-16:26 | Sports vs. prediction markets, regulatory/product nuance | | 16:26-18:07 | AI model prediction contracts, markets as information |

Conclusion

This episode showcases Robinhood’s ambitious future—turning crypto into a tool for financial leveling on a global scale, and prediction markets into a new, crowd-powered media. From Bitcoin’s cultural staying power to Robinhood’s surprising move to the vanguard of prediction trading, Vlad Tenev, Rashad Bilal, and Troy Millings outline a financial landscape where technology, markets, and human wisdom converge.