The Future of Crypto, Bitcoin, & Prediction Markets

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Earn Your Leisure

Episode: The Future of Crypto, Bitcoin, & Prediction Markets
Date: December 15, 2025
Hosts: Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings
Guest: Vlad Tenev (CEO, Robinhood)
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts

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Episode Overview

In this thought-provoking episode, Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings sit down with Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev for a deep dive into the future of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and the rise of prediction markets. The conversation explores how crypto is democratizing global finance, the unique trajectory of Bitcoin, Robinhood’s bold move into prediction markets, and how new forms of trading are blending financial literacy, tech innovation, and even sports in 2025.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Globalization of Crypto & Stablecoins

[03:31 - 05:37]

• Crypto's broader impact: Vlad Tenev explains that cryptocurrency’s biggest “needle mover” will be globalizing access to high-quality investments previously exclusive to US investors.

  “We kind of take it for granted here that we have the US dollar, we have access to US stocks, we have really high-quality assets... If you’re in Venezuela, you don’t have access to those things.” – Vlad Tenev [03:56]

• Stablecoins as global tools: In countries with unstable currencies or failed central banks, stablecoins became the go-to for storing wealth in US dollars.

  “Stablecoins really became popular as a way to store your wealth in US dollars because...the crypto companies actually went in and built local rails connecting to all these markets.” – Vlad Tenev [04:28]

• Future vision: Tokenization will help distribute US stocks and investments globally “as easily as stablecoins have done it for dollars.”

  “Crypto...will help stitch together all of the markets and make it so that everyone is on a level playing field outside the US as we are in here.” – Vlad Tenev [05:24]

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2. Is Vlad a “Bitcoin Maxi”?

[05:37 - 06:28]

• Balanced perspective: Vlad clarifies he is not a “bitcoin maxi” (someone who believes only in Bitcoin), but he is a fan.

  “I’m not a bitcoin maxi. Yeah, I mean I’m a bitcoin fan and I think bitcoin has an inherent advantage...It’s a singular asset. Right. It’ll always be the first.” – Vlad Tenev [05:42]

• Bitcoin’s status: Describes Bitcoin as having “a bit of a religion around it,” making it uniquely resilient compared to other cryptocurrencies.

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3. Robinhood and the Rise of Prediction Markets

[06:28 - 16:26]

• Correlation with Bitcoin’s rise: The hosts note a correlation between the rise in Bitcoin prices (up to $126,000) and Robinhood’s stock performance, attributing part of this to the popularity of prediction markets.

• Prediction markets explained:

  • Move from niche to mainstream: Robinhood adopted prediction markets quickly, staying ahead of the curve compared to competitors.

  • Vlad recalls how Robinhood typically entered new markets (stocks, crypto) late, but with prediction markets, they’re “out in front.”

    “Prediction markets is a new one for us because we were kind of out in front of, and then it’s sort of like how do we maintain our lead and market positioning.” – Vlad Tenev [12:05]

  • Rapid growth: Contracts expanded from just the US presidential election to 1,500+ across categories.

    “We’ve gone from...one single contract, which is the presidential election, to over 1,500. We’ve gone from...the volume is doubled quarter over quarter.” – Vlad Tenev [13:27]

    • Impressive numbers: In November alone, 3 billion contracts traded, $30M revenue; annualized run rate now $360M.

• Beyond Just Sports:

  • Diversification: Starting with elections, Robinhood has broadened to sports leagues and now AI model outcomes.

  • Sports betting vs. prediction markets: Vlad prefers calling it “wagering” because it’s fundamentally different, especially by allowing contract trading during the game.

    “What people love about it is you can actually trade these contracts during the game...because it’s a two-sided market.” – Vlad Tenev [15:03]

  • Prediction contracts draw in sophisticated traders, and may disrupt traditional sports books.

  • Regulatory differences: Prediction markets are inherently different in product and regulation, attracting different types of participants—often from the world of futures and equity trading.

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4. Prediction Markets as “The New News”

[16:26 - 18:07]

• Beyond sports – betting on AI: Vlad highlights contracts on AI model outcomes, e.g., Google’s Gemini vs. OpenAI’s GPT, where “conventional wisdom was wrong.”

  “Four months ago, it was, I think, 35% chance that Gemini would have the best model by the end of the year...for folks that really kind of understood what was happening in the AI world, it seemed like conventional wisdom was wrong.” – Vlad Tenev [16:36]

• Markets as information: Prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced wisdom, becoming a source of “what’s likely or what’s even true.”

  “It creates a new source of information...instead of watching talking heads pontificating, you can just look at the market and then you’ll learn a little bit about what’s likely or what’s even true in this world.” – Vlad Tenev [17:27]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On global financial access and crypto:

  “Crypto...will help stitch together all of the markets and make it so that everyone is on a level playing field outside the US as we are in here.” – Vlad Tenev [05:24]

• On prediction market growth:

  “November numbers. Three billion contracts traded in November, which is, yeah, it’s a $30 million revenue in a month...it’s the fastest growing business that Robinhood’s had.” – Vlad Tenev [13:46]

• On prediction markets as a new information ecosystem:

  “It’s almost like...the new media or new news—what’s likely or what’s even true in this world.” – Vlad Tenev [17:27]

• On the connection between knowledge and markets:

  “For a trader, it’s going to open up more possibilities...there’s probably at least one topic that each person understands better than the average conventional wisdom.” – Vlad Tenev [17:07]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-------------|------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:31-05:37 | Crypto’s global role, stablecoins in emerging markets | | 05:37-06:28 | Bitcoin’s status, “maxi” philosophy, uniqueness | | 06:28-07:14 | Prediction markets and Robinhood’s adoption | | 12:05-14:46 | Robinhood’s market lead, growth metrics, contract expansion| | 14:46-16:26 | Sports vs. prediction markets, regulatory/product nuance | | 16:26-18:07 | AI model prediction contracts, markets as information |

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Conclusion

This episode showcases Robinhood’s ambitious future—turning crypto into a tool for financial leveling on a global scale, and prediction markets into a new, crowd-powered media. From Bitcoin’s cultural staying power to Robinhood’s surprising move to the vanguard of prediction trading, Vlad Tenev, Rashad Bilal, and Troy Millings outline a financial landscape where technology, markets, and human wisdom converge.

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Transcript

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Do you see crypto going?

[Interviewer / Host]

Because obviously that's a major staple in what you guys have built with robinhood. We're in 2025, let's say 2035, right?

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah.

[Interviewer / Host]

Where do you see crypto going? And Bitcoin specifically?

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah, I think the biggest needle mover for crypto is that it's going to help take the great things we built in the US and make them increasingly global and available to investors all around the world, some of which haven't had access to these tools. Because I think we kind of take it for granted here that we have the US dollar, we have access to US Stocks, we have really high quality assets. When Robin Hood gets our private initiatives, we'll be able to distribute access to private companies. So we, we have really good investments and ways to allocate your capital. If you're, if you're in Venezuela, you don't have access to those things. And that's actually why stablecoins have been so popular. Because, you know, a lot of these people are in countries that have unstable governments, unstable central banks. If they do have central banks at all, they don't have functional banking systems. Currencies are devaluing and they're just adding zeros and zeros to them. The bills are, are worthless. So stablecoins really became popular as a way to store your wealth in US Dollars because, you know, the crypto companies actually went in and, and built local rails connecting to, to all of these markets. So they've been plugged into the crypto system. And I think crypto will evolve with tokenization to make it easy to distribute US stocks and other investments overseas as easily as stablecoins have, have done it to dollars. So I think that's the future. Crypto will sort of like the technology will help stitch together all of the markets and make it so that everyone is on a level playing field outside the US as we are in here. That's at least the future that we're, we're working to build.

[Interviewer / Host]

So you believe in the whole ecosystem, not just bitcoin? You're not a bitcoin maxi that just.

[Vlad Tenev]

I'm not a bitcoin maxi. Yeah. I mean I'm a bitcoin fan and I think bitcoin has an inherent advantage. Price, price prediction. Oh, price predictions are tough. I, I would tell you, I'm pretty, I'm pretty bull. And if you told me at the beginning of the year that there would be like a national bitcoin strategic reserve and all of these DATs and we would still be sitting here basically flat for the year, maybe a little bit up, I'd be, I'd be surprised. It's got a lot going for it. It's a singular asset. Right. It'll, it'll always be the first. So I think, I think it's got a bit of a religion around it with the bitcoin maxis and, and that's hard to fight relative to the other coins.

[Interviewer / Host]

Yeah. I think obviously if you look at the correlation between the rise of bitcoin Getting up to 126,000, you watch your stock also get toward its all time high around the same time. People feel like there's a correlation there, but there's also a piece that has helped the stock and that's the predictive markets.

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah.

[Interviewer / Host]

So not only could you invest in bitcoin, but you could say, hey, I see it getting to 100,000 by December 31st. Talk about the role that predictive markets have played because we talked about it like you were thinking about it. We were talking about poly market the last time we met in Miami. And now predictive markets are a thing, a real thing that I feel like you guys have adopted right away. Some of the, the other people in the space haven't. They're looking at you guys like, this is a leader. Do we need to add this, this is going to be disruptive.

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah, absolutely. And it's, it's kind of a fun position for, for me to be in because typically when you look at crypto and all the other products we've added, I mean, stocks, probably the best example, we were like years after the leaders. Right. I mean stocks went electronic in the 80s, basically E trade got started. The idea was to trade stocks on the Apple Macintosh. Apple Macintosh had come out and these two guys got together in Palo Alto, California and were like, what if we use the Apple Macintosh to trade stocks and I think that was in 19 earners.

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Hey ref.

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You're really not going to call that?

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[Vlad Tenev]

82 which is pretty crazy. So we were multiple decades late to the game for electronic trading and stocks. Crypto started in 2009. We added crypto to the platform in 2017 actually. Yeah, 2018 was when, when you could start trading it. So typically we've had an approach where we come in after there's like clarity that it's a real thing that people want and then we just bring our scale, lower costs and you know, better UX to the product. So prediction markets is a new one for us because we were kind of out in front of and then it's sort of like how do we maintain our lead and market positioning and you know, when we have a bunch of people coming after us. It has surprised me that you know, you have the exchanges like, like Polly and Kalshee who have obviously been been there from the beginning but like no other broker has, has gotten into it yet. No other broker of significant consequence. And I think they're coming like they're seeing what we're doing and they see that it's resonating with traders and, and just with mass market retail. But yeah, I think we're also moving and, and we're adding new innovations. I think the event that we're gonna, we're gonna unveil on the 16th is gonna, is gonna show some new things to people that they haven't seen before. And it's the fastest growing business that Robinhood's had. You know, in the past year we've gone from one single contract, which is the presidential election, to over 1500. We've gone from, it's basically the volume is doubled quarter over quarter. Q3 had, I want to say 2.2 million contracts, but then October had 2.5 million, so more than Q3 put together. And then you had November. We announced some November numbers. Three billion contracts traded in November, which is, yeah, it's a 30 million revenue in a month. So, so 360 million run rate if you, if you take the November numbers, which is a big ramp. And I think, you know, it's, it's, it's just been really resonating with, with the traders and sports betting, sports, a big part of it, but the big part of what we're doing is also diversifying the contracts. So it used to be just elections and elections I think to me is probably the most interesting. Then we added sports and we've added a ton of leagues.

[Interviewer / Host]

There is this sports betting or like what is it exactly?

[Vlad Tenev]

I, I liked most people I took to call it wagering.

[Interviewer / Host]

Wagering. Okay. I like the language there.

[Vlad Tenev]

I think it's different in all seriousness to sports betting and a lot of people ask about, you know, how is it different from a regulatory standpoint, from a product standpoint. I think it's significantly different and I haven't really done much sports betting but, and what people love about it is you can actually trade these contracts during the game. So you know, the, because it's a, it's a two sided market. The, the exchanges run the contracts while the games are happening and that's when the information's coming in. I mean for, for example, you can see how each play changes, changes the odds and the outcomes and you can go in and out of the positions and a lot of the market participants that are coming in both from the market maker side and sort of like on the trading side are the same market participants that have been trading futures and equities. So I think it's disruptive to sports betting, but I see it as a fundamentally different animal and, and a better product, which is why I think all the traditional sports betting sites are so nervous about it and they're just sort of like, yeah, they see the writing on the wall and they're, they're working as hard as possible to figure out their prediction market strategy. And some of them are outright pivoting to prediction markets completely.

[Interviewer / Host]

As soon as you said that November's numbers went up, I automatically thought NFL in its height, college football in its height. But it's not just sports.

[Vlad Tenev]

And NBA.

[Interviewer / Host]

NBA is in, this is kicking off, World Series is just about to end.

[Vlad Tenev]

Well, and we have you, you, I think we mentioned this earlier, AI model contracts, which you know, is a face I feel like I have some understanding of. And you have traders that are specializing in very specific areas. And you know, like four months ago it was, I think 35% chance that Gemini would have the best model by the end of the year. Chat GPT started the year ahead. Right. And you know, if, if you really, for folks that really kind of understood what was happening in the AI world, it seemed like conventional wisdom was wrong. Right. You have Google, who's on a steep trajectory and they have all the data, all the compute. They're highly motivated. I think now we look at the Gemini release and it's like, well, it's so obvious they had all these tools. But back then I think conventional wisdom was wrong. So I think for a trader it's going to open up more possibilities and you know, you can specialize in things because there's probably at least one topic that each person understands better than the average conventional wisdom. So I think it'll pull in more traders. But I think the most interesting thing for me is that it creates a new source of information. It's almost like, like the, the new media or new news where instead of watching talking heads pontificating about what's going to happen, you can just look at the market and then you'll learn a little bit about what's likely or what's even, what's even true in this world.

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