Earn Your Leisure Podcast – Episode Summary

Episode: Venezuela, Oil, & the Investments Set to Benefit
Date: January 7, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings (with team of regular EYL market and geopolitical analysts)

Episode Overview

In this episode, the Earn Your Leisure team takes a deep dive into the recent upheaval in Venezuela, the global and financial repercussions, and the investment opportunities that may arise from this geopolitical shift. The hosts and guest analysts examine the latest regime change, the role of U.S. oil interests, implications for the petrodollar, and the ethical line between profit and principle in global finance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Political Upheaval: The Arrest and Its Repercussions

• Recent events: Venezuela’s ousted president faced a court hearing in New York on the day of the recording.
  • “He pleaded not guilty in New York Southern District’s Federal Court. They got him in MCC, I believe Brooklyn.” [04:20]
• The former president is now held in Brooklyn; the move signals serious international involvement and raises questions about U.S. motives.

2. Making Money Off Geopolitical Crisis

• The team acknowledges the uncomfortable truth that investors, markets, and governments quickly assess financial upsides during international crises.
  • “People want to know how they can make money [off this] situation. It shouldn’t be, but it is. And it’s the world that we live in.” [04:50]
• Classic dilemma: Ethical investing vs. opportunity.

3. Oil Markets and Potential Winners

• “We talked about this on Market Mondays before this happened… Schlumberger, Chevron, and ExxonMobil… The part that people should be asking is how long will this trade be relevant?” [05:27]
• Chevron and ConocoPhillips highlighted as key players. ETFs such as XLE and ITA, and companies like Haliburton, Baker Hughes, and Phillips 66 are named as likely beneficiaries. [11:00–11:20]
• The spike in oil-related assets is expected to be short-lived—“Nobody will care about this oil trade in three months.” [05:27]

4. The Challenges with Venezuelan Oil

• Venezuela’s oil is thicker and harder to refine compared to Saudi oil, coupled with years of sanctions and outdated infrastructure.
  • “A major part of that is because they haven’t been able to refine their oils efficiently and their oil is a lot thicker than Saudi Arabia.” [06:55]
• If sanctions are lifted and efficiency improves, there could be a meaningful increase in supply and revenues.

5. Geopolitical and Economic Implications

• Comparisons drawn to past US interventions (Iraq, Libya), but there are notable differences:
  • “It doesn’t seem like they’re looking for a regime change in a typical way… It seems like they’re looking for a new leader that is easy to work with, not a whole new regime.” [12:00–13:07]
• The US may prioritize stability and ease of cooperation over complete government overhaul.
• Venezuela still owes significant settlements to US oil companies (e.g., ConocoPhillips’ $10 billion lawsuit).

6. The Petrodollar and Resource Control

• The panel discusses how controlling Venezuelan oil also plays into the longevity of the US dollar’s international dominance.
  • “Trade that for petroleum dollars, which is US Currency, and now you force the rest of the world to use that currency to get the oil.” [11:20]

7. “Friendly Extortion” and Economic Hitman Tactics

• The concept of friendly extortion is introduced—where cooperation is extracted less overtly, yet with real pressure.
  • “There’s a thing called friendly extortion. Sometimes you get extorted from a real aggressive standpoint. And sometimes you get extorted from a friendly, friendly extortion.” [14:58]
• Reference to the classic "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" playbook—a mix of economic and political pressure, rather than outright force.

8. Future Hotspots & The Cycle of Intervention

• The team speculates about possible next targets (Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Greenland):
  • “Colombia is on the clock. Cuba’s on the clock. He said Mexico. He said Greenland.” [15:38]
• Concern over the normalization and acceleration of foreign intervention.

9. Ethical Investing: Opportunity vs Morality

• The hosts wrestle with the morality of profiting from political and economic instability:
  • “Do we invest in those companies?” [16:05]
  • “It’s a fine line… Sometimes there’s opportunity to make money. We gotta make it.” [16:17]
  • “Morals is a tricky thing. It’s not really black or white. A lot of times it’s gray… A lot of Venezuelans are happy that this happens… I’ve even heard Venezuelans say that I’d rather be an American colony than under his rule.” [16:33–16:51]
• The complexity and subjectivity of “moral” investing—sometimes, locals may prefer foreign intervention to previous regimes.

10. Fast-Track Regime Change and Its Dangers

• The analysts express concern about the swift action:
  • “Within 48 hours you already said that there’s no opposition that’s going to come into power. And then you automatically just start working with the same regime that you say you didn’t want anymore.” [19:00]
• Points raised about precedent, propaganda, and unchecked executive power.
• The overall mood shifts to caution: “New age imperialism is so there.” [15:53]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It shouldn't be, but it is. And it’s the world that we live in.” (on profiting from crisis) – Geopolitical Analyst [04:50]
• “Trade that [oil] for petroleum dollars… now you force the rest of the world to use that currency…” – Investment Commentator [11:20]
• “A lot of Venezuelans are happy that this happens. I’ve even heard Venezuelans say that I’d rather be an American colony than under his rule.” – Geopolitical Analyst [16:46]
• “Friendly extortion… Sometimes you get extorted from a real aggressive standpoint. And sometimes… [it’s] friendly extortion.” – Geopolitical Analyst [14:58]
• “Colombia is on the clock. Cuba’s on the clock. He said Mexico. He said Greenland.” – Panel Discussion [15:38]
• “It feels like he’s been in three years already. If he does this to Colombia, then it’s the issue in Nigeria…” – Market Analyst [16:58]
• “Within 48 hours you already said that there’s no opposition that’s going to come into power. When they said the opposition won 78% of the vote…” – Geopolitical Analyst [19:00]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 04:20–05:00: Background on the Venezuelan situation, court hearing, and global intrigue
• 05:27–06:55: Oil investment plays, specifics about companies to watch
• 06:55–07:52: Refinery issues, sanctions detail, and impact on global markets
• 11:00–11:43: Discussion on oil ETFs, petrodollars, and US currency strategy
• 13:07–14:36: Regime change discussion, Nobel Prize-winner in exile, and American company interests
• 14:58–15:56: Friendly extortion, economic “hit man” maneuvers, and next geopolitical targets
• 16:05–17:59: Investing ethics and the morality/ambiguity of profiting from international crises
• 18:29–19:14: Speed of regime change, doubts about true power shifts, and comparison to a Hitchcock story

Tone & Style

The discussion throughout is frank, dynamic, and incisive, blending pop culture references (e.g. Hitchcock, sports analogies, Nike tech jokes) with sharp market commentary and political insight. The panel balances world-weary realism with desire for deeper analysis, making the episode both informative and engaging.

Summary

This episode provides an accessible yet nuanced look at how global finance, politics, and ethics collide during moments of geopolitical upheaval—specifically in the context of Venezuela’s sudden regime change and the potential windfall for American oil interests. The hosts dissect which investments might benefit, question the sustainability of the oil trade, and challenge listeners to consider not just the financial upside but also the greater moral implications of their choices.

Listeners leave with a sharper sense of how quickly world events shift markets—and the gray moral space in which those profits are often found.