Who Will Win the AI Race? Apple, Google, Microsoft and More

Summary

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Episode Overview

Podcast: Earn Your Leisure
Episode: Who Will Win the AI Race? Apple, Google, Microsoft, and More
Date: January 17, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings

This episode dives deep into the competitive landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) among tech giants like Apple, Google, Microsoft, and more. The conversation revolves around which companies are best positioned to dominate the AI era, which might fall behind, and the challenges and opportunities within the constantly evolving tech sector. The hosts and guests engage in spirited debate, bringing perspectives informed by finance, tech trends, and business strategy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Who Will Survive—and Thrive—in the Age of AI?

[02:05]

• Analyst 2 spotlights SAP and Intuit as companies well-insulated (“AI indestructible”) from the potential adverse effects of advanced AI, contrasting them with firms like Duolingo, Adobe, and possibly Salesforce, which may be disrupted.
• Emphasis on finding businesses that will "not be negatively affected by AI, regardless of how advanced that get."

2. Heavyweights of the AI Race: Microsoft, Google, and Apple

[03:11–04:50]

• Analyst 1: “I think Microsoft for sure... How do we take AI and incorporate it to eat everybody else?”
  • Microsoft’s aggressive adoption—like integrating Copilot and leveraging Azure—is seen as a blueprint for AI-led dominance.
  • ServiceNow is proposed as a “sleeper” pick, due to its innovation and workflow management.
• Analyst 2: Expresses frustration with Apple for not investing enough in foundational AI infrastructure.
• Consensus agrees on Microsoft's and ServiceNow's strengths; Google's execution speed is highlighted.

3. The First True “Agentic” AI Platform

[04:29–06:44]

• Speculation about which company will debut a seamless, agentic AI system for enterprise or consumers (handling tasks such as email with zero friction).
• Analyst 1 bets on Google, citing its data access, user engagement, and history (“the win is built in”).
• Analyst 2: Predicts Apple’s valuation will slip to seventh, due to underinvestment in core AI.

4. Apple’s Ecosystem: Integration, but Lacking in AI Ambition?

[05:16–09:32]

• Analyst 3: “Apple is fully integrated. To me, Apple is the most integrated thing in my life—music, email, calendar, text—my whole life is run through Apple, not through Google.”
• Lively debate ensues about Apple's software integration vs. Google’s backend dominance (e.g., many iOS apps using Google’s services).
• Persistent theme: Apple's products remain essential to users’ lives, but their direct AI functionality and innovation are lagging.

5. Has Apple Fallen Behind in the AI Race?

[09:47–12:57]

• Analyst 2 is critical of Tim Cook, arguing Apple has missed key opportunities—especially failing to acquire game-changing AI talent or companies:
  • “What I would like is a new executive who is going to acquire AI talent... Apple has acquired their way into greatness—and then they stopped acquiring and got comfortable.”
• Apple has ceded ground to competitors: “...You’re facing [Google/Meta] with no rock and no slingshot.”

6. The Innovation Drought at Apple

[11:56–13:32]

• Apple’s recent efforts (Vision Pro, wearables) haven’t significantly moved the needle versus innovations elsewhere.
  • Example: Meta’s “wearable” AI glasses outpacing Apple’s Vision Pro.
• Despite this, Apple’s products are still universally adopted and sales remain robust.

7. The Intel & BlackBerry Warning

[14:08–14:47]

• Analyst 2 draws a parallel to former tech leaders Intel and BlackBerry, who failed to evolve and were overtaken:
  • “If you’ve been around long enough... Tim Cook, out of the best of breed CEOs, has underdelivered the most in terms of AI.”
• Both hosts agree Apple’s stock has performed, but its leadership in AI is wanting.

8. Amazon Leadership Discussion & Looking Ahead

[15:48–16:13]

• Quick detour: Positive assessment of Andy Jassy at Amazon and rumors of Tim Cook’s impending retirement.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |---------------|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:25 | Analyst 1 | “If you think of them, think of them as the person that’s going to eat up software companies by incorporating AI. And they’ve done that already with Copilot, what Azure is doing. We know that already.” | | 04:50 | Analyst 1 | “I think it’s Google.” (on who will launch a full-scale agentic AI service first) | | 09:00 | Analyst 3 | “…Apple is fully integrated. To me, Apple is the most integrated thing in my life—music, email, calendar, text—my whole life is run through Apple, not through Google.” | | 10:45 | Analyst 2 | “Apple has acquired their way into greatness—and then they stopped acquiring and got comfortable and everyone else is catching up. They’re falling on the market cap list like I said they would a year and a half ago.” | | 14:08 | Analyst 2 | “It reminds me of the same sentiment at a larger scale that Intel and BlackBerry had in 2008 and 2009… Tim Cook, out of the best of breed CEOs, has underdelivered the most in terms of AI.” | | 15:19 | Analyst 3 | “Sometimes you fire a coach just because you need a new culture... Maybe a new CEO comes in with a new culture, new game plan, shake things up and it’s a little bit more innovative. We’ll see.” |

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:05 — Which software companies will survive/thrive in AI?
• 03:11 — Microsoft’s AI dominance & ServiceNow as a sleeper pick
• 04:50 — Google vs. Apple: Who’s ready for “agentic” AI?
• 05:16 — Apple’s integration strengths argued
• 09:47 — Is Tim Cook “dropping the ball” in AI?
• 11:56 — Apple’s stalling innovation (Vision Pro, wearables, foldable iPhone)
• 13:24–14:47 — Apple’s resiliency vs. risk of falling behind, likened to BlackBerry/Intel
• 15:48 — Amazon, Jassy, and the possible end of the Tim Cook era

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Overall Tone and Takeaway

The episode unfolds as a lively, at times contentious, roundtable with passionate takes. The hosts balance admiration for Apple’s ecosystem and brand loyalty with critical analysis of its strategic missteps in AI. Microsoft and Google emerge as acknowledged frontrunners, largely due to bold AI investments and faster innovation cycles, while Apple is depicted as a sleeping giant—still profitable and omnipresent, but possibly on the verge of being left behind unless it reboots its AI ambitions.

For listeners, the episode delivers a college-class-level business debate with plenty of relatable pop culture references, spirited disagreements, and practical investment insight. The hosts’ genuine passion for the topic and willingness to challenge each other ensures a dynamic listen—making the evolving AI “arms race” feel both personal and urgent.

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Transcript

[Podcast Host (iHeart Media Announcer)]

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[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

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[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Yeah.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

With that being said, who will be the software winners in the AI era?

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Eventually we're going to go through the list of the ones that won't recover as a result and it's a lot of them, but I think there are a few. But two I want to highlight companies that I haven't talked about a lot. One is SAP, which is enterprise software and the other was into it. Of course you have Palantir, you have Amazon that are AR adjacent. But the thing I was telling Stock Club last night find the companies that are going to thrive that are AI indestructible, meaning regardless of what AI does and how prolific it becomes them. You can even throw ADP in there. There are certain companies that won't be negatively affected, but companies like Duolingo or Adobe or some others may, Salesforce, may be. This AR trade isn't going away. I think we probably have another, what, maybe 12 years, nine years of this trade. But you need to find some companies that will not be negatively affected by AI, regardless of how advanced that get. And I think SAP and Intuit are two good versions of that.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

All right, I'm go different. I'm gonna go different. And this is, this is why this makes this show so unique, is that you're going to get a vast array of opinions and information. I think one is, is the obvious. I think Microsoft for sure.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Of course, because I didn't want to mention obvious.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Yeah, yeah. I just think people, when you understand what Microsoft does, it actually does the opposite. It's like, all right, that's software. How do we take AI and incorporate it to eat everybody else?

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Yeah.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Right. So like if you think of them, think of them as the person that's going to eat up software companies by incorporating AI. And they've done that already with Copilot, what Azure is doing. We know that already. I think an interesting One is ServiceNow.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

It's underrated.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

An underrated one. It's sleeper. But it's another one of these companies that deals with managing workflows and connecting systems to people. Right. So when you think about, we'll talk about software companies that we don't think are going to survive. ServiceNow has been super innovative. I've been watching their CEO for the past three years. Interesting dude. And then I started to understand what the company does. That would be my sleeper inside of this space. So I got Microsoft and I'm going to take ServiceNow as winners in this. In the software AI era, who do.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

You think would be the first company that comes out with a full agentic AI stack like enterprise level or consumer level, where you can just say, hey, answer all my emails for me because there's some smaller companies that'll do it. But who do you think will be the first player out of Google, Microsoft, Apple, Tesla to have full scale?

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

I think it's Google.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Yeah.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

And if they get.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Apple's going to slide to seventh in valuation.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Overall, it's built in. The win is built in. When you're talking about, we like convenience. Right. So if there is a company that has your email already, that has your work schedule already, that has your life schedule, calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Yep.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Well, I mean, you can make the same argument for Apple.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Do they. But do you have an email with Apple Icloud?

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

But they haven't put as much money. And that's my point why I'm so frustrated. The infrastructure and entire ecosystem, what you needed that last one infinity stone and you didn't build it.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

But then also people like Elon Musk said email is not even going to be around in 10, 10 years. Email is going to be a thing of the past. So. But I think Apple, I mean, if you really think about as far as vertical integration, they have your text messages, they have your music, they have your calendar. Everybody might not use icloud, but I do. So in, in that case, they have your email and it's the device that most Americans are using, an iPhone. So I mean, they're perfectly set up to. For that more. I think they're more set up for that than Google.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

I don't.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

The thing is Google's going to execute it faster though.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Yeah. I think the. What. What Google has done and it. It's interesting because we could say that they've been a leader in AI for a long time. They shouldn't have the product to do it. When you talk about DeepMind and the. All the architects that came from there, um, the icloud situation is true, but it's more of a storage. I think if you have an iPhone, you have. If you have an iPhone, you have icloud. Right. Whether it's from. It saves your text messages or it does save your music. But that part of. There is no Apple calendar. Right. Like all the things you use on your phone for the most part are going to be from Google down.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

No, there is an Apple calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

I'm just saying most. But most people.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Hey, Sal.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Hank, what's going on?

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

We haven't worked a case in years. I just bought my car at Carvana and it was so easy.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Too easy.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Think something's up.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

You tell me. They got thousands of options, found a great car at a great price, and it got delivered the next day.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

It sounds like Carvana just makes it.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Easy to buy your car, Hank. Yeah, you're right.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Case closed.

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[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

I use Apple Calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

You have a Gmail account as well, right?

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

I don't use that. I use the Apple Calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

You have a Gmail account.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

I do, but I don't use it though. My calendar. I use my calendar religiously. Shout out to ab, Put stuff on my calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

He does that through Gmail.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

It's on Apple.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

It's on your iPhone. But he's doing it through Gmail. I'm on those counts.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Yeah, but it's an Apple Calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

It's a G number.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

It's the Apple Calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

No, I'm just saying.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

That's what I'm saying. This is the Apple Calendar. There's a Gmail calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

No, no, no. What's getting sent to you is through Gmail.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

It could be sending it through Gmail, but it's on my Apple Calendar. That's what I'm saying. So it's integrated with Apple. Now. There's a Gmail calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Oh, right, right, right, right.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Yes, yes, there's a Gmail Calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Yes, Gmail Calendar app.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Yes, I'm using. I'm using the Apple Calendar.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

But the information that's coming to your calendar is from. Is from Google.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Yeah, but it's still integrated with that.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

That's what. That's what I'm saying. Right? Like, you're not putting it in an Apple device and saying, here's Apple you use. They're still using Google. Even Apple itself, if you look at the search engine, that data that's going. That's. That's still.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Well, people are using their Gmail accounts.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

From their iPhone, but they work together.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Exactly.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Yeah. That's what I'm saying.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Google is a partner that they need to make that software work more efficiently, right?

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Yeah, yeah, they work. They work together on it. No, true, but what I'm. All I'm saying is that Apple is fully integrated. To me, Apple is the most integrated thing in my life because I listen to my music on Apple Music. I check my email on. On icloud. I have my calendar on the Apple Calendar. I get my text messages on the iPhone. Everything that I do my whole. My whole life is run through Apple, not through Google.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

That's not true. You're on YouTube right now.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

I'm Talking about my personal. Like if I have a personal assistant and they looking and they checking things like all of that stuff is on. Is on iPhone.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Yeah, but so if you look at the users, right? If you look at.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

And by the way, I'm watching. I watch YouTube on my iPhone.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

But it's still the platform.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

I understand that, but I'm just saying it's the outlet.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

I have a question. Out of the big ten companies, besides Tim Cook, has anybody else dropped the ball on AI except him?

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

I can't say that he's. He hasn't kicked the ball yet.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Tim Cook, I can't wait for you to retire. You at the start line and everyone else has ran laps and now they're going to the javelin throw.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

What do you think? What do you think that they should do? Because they put the AirPods out that can translate different languages. They had. They were original with Siri. They had Siri before anybody was talking about it.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Was Alexa first or was Siri first?

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Think Siri.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Siri was first, I think.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Okay.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

They started Siri. They had. So they have artificial intelligence integrated throughout their whole entire ecosystem. What do you want them to do? What do you. What would you want them to do?

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

I would have want the history of Apple and its greatness has always been acquisition. They could have acquired. The deal that Microsoft got was presented to Apple first. Didn't do it. Yeah, they had the chance to get it first. Didn't do it. Then you get into this proxy war with Zuckerberg and Elon. You took your eye off the ball. What I would like is a new executive who is going to acquire AI talent. And even though Meta has not turned the course yet on the stock, they're making investments there for AI And I don't the way that Meta stock is getting treated is how Apple should be. And Tim Cook tenure. He. You had an immense opportunity with the ecosystem, the platform. You get the 30 tax for anybody who uploads anything into your app store. And you got comfortable being a services company and now Google came from out of the ashes and they're Goliath that you're facing with no rock and no slingshot. So while they have the pieces there, it's like the. When the warriors won the 73 games and couldn't bring home the chip.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

I think innovation is the word. Right. Like we for. I mean we've been doing this for six years. On market Mondays there was the autonomous vehicle that we thought that they were going to do.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

They backed out of that, didn't do it.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

We thought the wearable would be the thing and the Vision Pro didn't turn out to be that. But even a small scale idea, it looks like Meta got ahead of that with the, with the, with their wearables and I see a lot of people wearing the Meta glasses. So those, those are two areas. We haven't seen innovation inside the iPhone in probably seven or eight years. I know that they're coming out with the foldable one. Did you see the foldable iPhone? Yeah.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Shout out to everybody who had an Android who been had that. Shout out to Drew. But even at the AirPods I like that, that iteration even though I don't have them. But that was an acquisition from Beats. Apple has acquired their way into greatness and then they stopped acquiring and got comfortable and everyone else is catching up. They're falling on the market cap list like I said they would a year and a half ago.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Well, they number, they number three. I mean they just got passed. The interesting part is this and this is the part like we can say all these things but people are still buying the products.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

I mean it hit, it was a force upgrade.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

It was a 4 trillion dollar company.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

I think it gets taken for granted because it's a necessity. We're running this show right now and it wouldn't be possible without Apple on the desk right now. There's, there's two iPhones. We're buying the products on the desk right now.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Yeah, I agree. That has nothing to do with the under investment AI though.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

There's two iPhones, there's an iPad and there's a MacBook.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

We're. But we're still buying a product. That's what I'm saying. We're still buying a product. So the valuation of the company continues to rise, right? Like I bought the 17, I bought the new earbuds. People are doing that. This was. When we talk about innovation, like. No, I'm just saying, I'm just saying in terms of. Think about what Google's had to do and had to announce and had to acquire to get to this valuation, right? Think about how Meta has announced these things and acquired and it's still sitting at the evaluate, right? They're sitting at the 1.4 billion. Apple hasn't done all those things that we're seeing and people still buy the product and the valuation continues to rise. It hit an all time high last year.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

You know what this reminds me of? It reminds me of the same sentiment at a larger scale that intel and BlackBerry had in 2008 and 2009. If you've been around long enough, you said, okay, Sergey came out of Elon's in office whether you like him or not and like his disposition in this thought process. Trump's in Mar? A Lago or the office. Tim Cook, out of the best of breed CEOs has undelivered the most in terms of AI. That's my point. When they had a chance to lead this race and they lost it.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

I think both things are true. I think both things are true. Yes, he is under. He's under delivered. Has the stock been rewarded for what it's done in the past year?

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Yeah, that's not the. He's even said last week, oh, I'm tired of being in office and I'm ready to get the. Out the seat.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

But has this. Can we argue that the stock has performed. It's performed. Right.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

I agree. Yeah, that's my pick. That's my baby. But I also can say that they've underperformed in terms of leadership.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Both things are true. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you. Yeah.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

Well, we'll see. We'll see. We'll see if they, if they go in a new direction. It's like sports, you know, sometimes you got to change the coach if the team is not, you know, performing, even if the team is winning. The Knicks, they went to the conference finals last year and they still fired the coach.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

That's a fact.

[Business/Tech Analyst 3]

So sometimes you, you fire a coach just because you need a new culture. So maybe a new CEO comes in with a new culture, new game plan, and shake things up and it's a little bit more innovative. We'll see. We'll see.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Are you happy? Are you happy with the job? Are you happy with the job that any Andy Jassy has done at Amazon?

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Absolutely.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

Okay.

[Business/Tech Analyst 2]

Yeah, I am. And really quick. As of early January 2026, internal succession planning has accelerated. An official announcement should come at the end of the first quarter. From what I've been told personally from somebody who works at HQ, he will be out January of 2027.

[Business/Tech Analyst 1]

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