Why Tesla is the Most BIZARRE Stock to Hold for 5 Years

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Earn Your Leisure

Episode: Why Tesla is the Most BIZARRE Stock to Hold for 5 Years
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Date: February 17, 2026

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Overview

In this episode, Rashad, Troy, and guests explore the unique position Tesla holds as a long-term stock investment, dissecting its business model, Elon Musk’s leadership, and the company’s dramatic shift from car manufacturing to robotics and AI. The conversation blends skepticism, bullishness, and cultural critique, culminating in a rich analysis of Tesla’s risks and rewards for 5-year holders.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Top Long-Term Stock Picks (02:36–04:41)

• The group debates their top three long-term stock picks if starting fresh today.
  • Investor 3 names Amgen, Eli Lilly, and Google, likening Amgen and Lilly to "Jordan and Kobe on the same team" (03:10).
  • Investor 2 leans toward Nvidia and Microsoft, citing their resilience and industry dominance.
  • Investor 1 introduces Tesla as a "hell of a run" pick for the next five years, despite not personally wanting to invest.

    "I think that over the next five years Tesla is going to have a hell of a run." – Investor 1 (04:34)

2. Tesla’s Strategic Shift: From Cars to Robotics (04:57–06:12)

• The conversation transitions to Tesla’s evolving vision, embodied by Elon Musk’s statements about moving beyond cars into robotics and AI.
  • Investor 1: "He's telling you straight up, like, yo, this isn't about car... we're done making that. This is where we're going." (05:56)
• The hosts acknowledge that this strategy may offer exponential value but carries significant execution risk.

3. The Risks of Visionary Leadership & Market Hype (06:12–09:25)

• The hosts challenge the “big bet” nature of Tesla’s current narrative—comparing highly speculative investments like the metaverse to Elon’s vision for humanoid robots.
  • Concern is raised over Tesla missing car delivery targets while pivoting to uncertain markets.
  • Investor 2: "Like, you're basing your whole company off of a thesis of what could potentially happen. But what's currently happening? He's disappointing the cars and he's...got himself in a lot of political turmoil." (07:00)
• Hostility from political forces and Musk's polarizing persona are flagged as compounding risks.

4. Musk’s Business Maneuvers and Company Structures (07:32–08:22)

• Discussion of Musk’s other ventures: SpaceX, Starlink, and XAI
  • Noted that Musk chose to move AI assets to SpaceX rather than Tesla—seen as strategic.
  • Investor 1: "He didn't move it over to Tesla." (07:58)
• The power and privilege enjoyed by certain entrepreneurs, especially Musk, is highlighted.

  "Some entrepreneurs are afforded to lose hundreds of billions... other entrepreneurs have no margin of error at all." – Investor 2 (08:49)

5. Pivots, Privilege, and Company Valuation (08:49–12:32)

• The group explores how Musk’s ability to “paint a lofty picture” keeps investor optimism high in spite of bold pivots and volatility.
  • Tesla’s drastic price cuts and evolving business image brought up as warning signs.

  "At one point people were paying 80 and 90 thousand dollars for those cars. You can get some of those cars out for 22 grand. That's a hard pivot." – Investor 3 (11:48)

• Musk's unique access to capital compared to peers, with references to the public scorn faced by other founders for fewer missteps.

6. Robotics: Hype vs. Reality (12:32–14:10)

• The potential for robotics—especially humanoid robots—to reshape workforces is acknowledged, but the panel is united in skepticism about Musk’s 100 million robot prediction.
  • Investor 1: "Does it change? Yeah. Will everybody have it in their homes? I don't think we're there... But you could. That's where they headed." (09:30)
  • Investor 2: "Factories and stuff like that, yeah, for sure they're gonna play a major part. But...hundreds of millions of robots just walking the streets... I don't see that happening in five years." (13:02)
• Real-world robotics demonstrations at Nvidia leave an impression but reinforce the vast gap between vision and mass adoption.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "If I can put Jordan and Kobe on the same team, I'm good going to war with anybody." – Investor 3 on Amgen & Lilly (03:10)
• "I think that over the next five years Tesla is going to have a hell of a run." – Investor 1 (04:34)
• "He's telling you straight up, like, yo, this isn't about car... we're done making that. This is where we're going." – Investor 1 (05:56)
• "Like, you're basing your whole company off of a thesis of what could potentially happen. But what's currently happening? He's disappointing the cars and he's...got himself in a lot of political turmoil." – Investor 2 (07:00)
• "Some entrepreneurs are afforded to lose hundreds of billions... other entrepreneurs have no margin of error at all." – Investor 2 (08:49)
• "At one point people were paying 80 and 90 thousand dollars for those cars. You can get some of those cars out for 22 grand. That's a hard pivot." – Investor 3 (11:48)

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Key Timestamps

• 02:36: Top 3 long-term holdings debate
• 04:31: Tesla introduced as a unique 5-year play
• 05:56: Acknowledging Tesla’s move away from cars toward robotics/AI
• 07:00: Risks of Tesla’s current performance and Elon Musk’s political entanglements
• 07:58: Strategic moves—XAI assets to SpaceX, not Tesla
• 08:49: Debate on access to capital and entrepreneur privilege
• 11:48: Tesla’s car price drops highlighted as major pivot
• 13:02: Skepticism regarding 100+ million humanoid robots

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Tone & Closing Thoughts

The conversation is dynamic and candid, blending humor, skepticism, and nuanced understanding of financial markets. Hosts and guests appreciate Tesla’s visionary trajectory but underscore the unprecedented risks associated with betting on Musk’s future. They remind listeners that Tesla’s wild ambitions, coupled with Musk’s unique standing, make it one of the most “bizarre” stocks to hold on a five-year horizon—potentially lucrative, but full of volatility and uncertainty.

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Transcript

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[Investor 1]

At.

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[Investor 2]

What's the top Three long term holdings.

[Investor 3]

I love this question and hate it at the same time. I'm not going to give you two Tech two index and I'm not going to say Apple and Microsoft. If I had to start today holding for five years, if I have to pick three Mega Cap, one would be Amgen, two would be Lily because of the tech exposure and three would be Google. Those provide you almost little to no drawdown regardless of what the economy is going to do. Amgen and Lily are going to print money, but especially Amgen. Amgen's like I, I can't say a baby Lily because they're different vocations. But the things that I loved about Lily, they have the same thing. They're just not as great. Like it's like Jordan and Kobe. Like if I can put Jordan and Kobe on the same team, I'm, I'm good going to war with anybody.

[Investor 2]

You said Amgen.

[Investor 3]

Oh, you said no Amgen. Lily and Google are the three.

[Investor 2]

So those, those are your top. Those are your top three.

[Investor 3]

If I had to start new today.

[Investor 2]

Like today, right now, today, five years.

[Investor 1]

Yeah, yeah.

[Investor 2]

Those are over Nvidia, over Microsoft.

[Investor 1]

Who you got before I say who you got?

[Investor 2]

Nvidia, Microsoft.

[Investor 3]

Rashad said xrp.

[Investor 2]

And XRP for sure. Well, Bitcoin, if, if we're not talking just. But if it's just stocks.

[Investor 3]

Yeah, just stocks.

[Investor 2]

Just stocks.

[Investor 1]

If it's just stocks, Nvidia is, is, is one. Google will be two. It's just for the next five years.

[Investor 3]

You're just next five. Yep.

[Investor 1]

I don't want to invest in it, but I think who I don't. I'm obviously TSM would be that because that's always my number one.

[Investor 3]

Yeah, yeah.

[Investor 1]

I think, I think that over the next five years Tesla is going to have a hell of a run.

[Investor 3]

Even if he leaves.

[Investor 2]

Why would he leave? He just got the billion, he just got the trillion dollar pay package. If he hits certain.

[Investor 1]

I think those, the metrics that he's going to meet the metrics.

[Investor 3]

He can meet the metrics and leave to the company that really matter but.

[Investor 1]

That he has to do it within a certain time frame. He doesn't get to the trillion. I think it's by. He has to do it in like eight or nine years. So that falls within the range I think the autonomous, the robotics what he's now doing in terms of like technology and space, he'll figure out a way to incorporate that. Tesla is just such an interesting proposition for the next five years that outside of the ones you guys said, I think the return on that would be pretty. Pretty interesting. High growth. I wouldn't want to do it, but I think it'll have a hell of a return in the next five years.

[Investor 3]

And sometimes the person in the space will tell you where the economy is going. When he said, we're not a car company. I'm going to robotics, straight off, that tells you the value of software is damn near you. You. I don't like a lot of his political aspersions. I don't like how his daddy acted.

[Investor 1]

Right.

[Investor 3]

I like how daddy raised him. What Elon has done well, though. He knows how to pick a category that's going to dominate for 15 years, though.

[Investor 1]

That's the line, bro. And that's why I thought it. I'm like, he's telling you straight up, like, yo, this isn't about car. This isn't about us making cars. In fact, that model, the whole sector, we're done making that. It. Yeah, it was nice.

[Investor 3]

We.

[Investor 1]

It made sense, but we're done with that now. This is where we're going.

[Investor 2]

But even that is problematic. Hit the like button and share. We're almost at 7,000, please. Even that is problematic to me because, I mean, they're missing numbers on the cars. And now you shift into an industry once again. The bubble. It's. It's a guess. Some people can raise money and. And be off of it goes back to the. To the metaverse speculation or the they saying that human. There's going to be a hundred million humanoid robots. That's what they saying.

[Investor 3]

That's. That's a large.

[Investor 2]

They also said that. They also said that real estate in the Met, in the Met, in a metaverse, was going to be the new frontier. And Snoop Dogg, somebody brought like a million dollars for the house next to Snoop Dogg.

[Investor 3]

Who's they?

[Investor 2]

That's they.

[Investor 1]

They. Because people was killing Zuck for. They didn't. They didn't want to go on that ride with them.

[Investor 2]

Well, a lot of people did, though. A lot of people brought into the metaverse. It wasn't just Zuckerberg. A lot of people heavy. So, I mean, I don't know. I just feel like Elon, like you're basing your whole company off of a thesis of what could potentially happen. But what's currently happening. He's disappointing the. The cars and he's. He's got himself in a lot of political turmoil. When the Democrats take over, they're not just going to forget everything that he did. He's gonna have to have some level of retribution and payback for this.

[Investor 1]

Well, he still got three years, and that's the crazy part. So if it's in the next five, he's still got three left.

[Investor 3]

If Xai, who. Who is Xia merging with his other company?

[Investor 1]

It's already done. SpaceX.

[Investor 3]

That would tell you if I got an asset and Sam allegedly stole the baby that I helped create and help get funding for it employees and you do your super bowl commercial and I make a competitive asset and I move it over to SpaceX. It's interesting. He didn't move it over to Tesla.

[Investor 2]

No, exactly. 100. SpaceX is not. That's. That's the one to me.

[Investor 3]

Because I think he's going to do the same with Starlink and put XAI. SpaceX and Starlink and the one that's a company that most people cannot, cannot touch. My company damn near untouchable.

[Investor 1]

I'm not going to comment today, but I will comment next week and this will make sense when I. When I do it.

[Investor 3]

Got you.

[Investor 1]

Yeah.

[Investor 2]

SpaceX. But we, some point we do have to have that real conversation, though. There's. There's luxuries that some people's afforded that other entrepreneurs are not.

[Investor 1]

100%. Oh, we know.

[Investor 3]

That's the metaverse. I love Zuck. Shout out to everybody. HQ at the Hudson Building. But if I delivered that metaverse and that was the losses on it, you're not.

[Investor 1]

There is no second chance. You're not even getting the first chance.

[Investor 3]

To win the idea.

[Investor 1]

The idea is not getting you a first chance.

[Investor 2]

And we're going to talk about access to capital later on the episode. But some entrepreneurs are afforded to lose hundreds of billions of dollars and then they get rewarded with hundreds of billions of dollars. Other entrepreneurs have no margin of error at all. You lose $1,000 and your life is over. So Elon, people like him on Wall street, but he. What is he? He's. You really think that humanoid robots is going to take over the way they like 100 million humanoid robots? You really think that's gonna happen?

[Investor 1]

Take over in what sense?

[Investor 2]

100 million. He's. I think he said 300. Like something like that.

[Investor 1]

I don't know.

[Investor 2]

I don't think.

[Investor 1]

I don't think. I don't think we're in Terminator. I. I think obviously in factories and workforce. Does it change? Yeah. Will everybody have it in their homes? I don't think we're there. In the next five years. I. I think you'll start to see the signs of how it improves some, like I said, workforce, maybe some forms of life. Like some things, some tasks in life. But can anybody afford it right when that first iteration of anything, it's usually super expensive and there's only a limited people that can afford that, that price point until they figure out a model that makes sense that the everyday person can have. We're not, we're not there yet. But. But you could. That's where they headed. You can see all, all systems are pointing that way. Although maybe we should stop talking about Ian.

[Investor 2]

Where are you?

[Investor 3]

Can you guys hear me?

[Investor 1]

They try to get the boy out.

[Investor 3]

Yeah, you know what, Elon, I'm sorry, my bad. But no. Do I think there'll be 100, 100 million humanoid robots through one company? Probability is low even if you just look at the, the delivery history of what he said about fsd. But like you said, some creators and founders are allowed to paint a lofty picture that's bigger than the total addressable market. Yeah, like I said, if I would have pitched the metaverse and then fell, I would have been for assassinated saying what the stuff that he get to say. And they man, they criticize the hell out of Obama for putting his feet up on the desk and wearing a tan suit. There are just some liberties that are given and this is a fact like even I know I may be tough on, on Tim Cook. Steve wouldn't have missed this AI wave like this. Any other company that missed the AI wave, they're suffering. They're suffering as a result.

[Investor 2]

So, so is that, is that a model that can really be a pivot for a company that's a car company now just to go into uncharted territories and say okay, this is the play that we gonna do. Robots robotics.

[Investor 3]

I think because he's a visionary, he will be able to do it. But I ultimately think that he is gonna railroad Tesla. And to the person in the comments who said Starlink is already under ownership of SpaceX. They have of course a partnership, but if it was completely owned by SpaceX, you wouldn't be able to invest in both rounds. So they don't solely own it. I do think upon exit he you can put away in for your shoes to be too big to fill his are, but it's also a poison pill so that the company does not thrive. Look at what he's done to the value of the company of just the cars in the last five years. At one point people were paying 80 and 90 thousand dollars for those cars. You can get some of those cars out for 22 grand. That's a hard pivot. While people are sitting in a finance and option and the value of the car is less than the loan that you got.

[Investor 1]

Yeah. The godfather of AI said that robotics is a once in a generation opportunity and it has a chance to do work that we do now and will no longer want to do in the future. So he's back in that.

[Investor 2]

Yeah, I know everybody. I don't think anybody, it's like once again, it's like, hey, I don't think anybody's thinking that robotics is not going to play a major part, but I just don't see 300 million robots.

[Investor 3]

I don't either.

[Investor 2]

The whole country, the human robots, factories and stuff like that, yeah, for sure they're gonna play a major part. But like just hundreds of millions of robots just walking the streets and just in everybody's household. I don't know. I don't see that happening in five years.

[Investor 1]

No, I don't think it's five years. But you think about how many people work in factories, you think about the global impact of that. You're talking like if he's talking about walking outside and it's like I said, is it Terminator? No, but if you're talking about factory work, you're talking about millions of jobs.

[Investor 2]

But the thing is, a lot of those factories have already been replaced by robot. Not in the sense of robots, like humanoid robots, but machines that do that do work already. That's already taking away a lot of jobs. So humanoid robots specifically.

[Investor 1]

Different. What I mean, what we saw with our own eyes when, when they, we were on the tour Nvidia and when we got to see what they're doing in terms of programming the agent like robots, it was like, damn, it was amazing.

[Investor 3]

Yeah. Especially calibration for different space environments. For sure.

[Investor 1]

Yeah. Like this is different.

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