Podcast Summary: Earn Your Leisure — "Why the Market CRASHES Every February (And How to Profit)"

Date: March 15, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal, Troy Millings
Featured Guest/Commentator: Jenice Torres
Publisher: iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

In this insightful episode, the Earn Your Leisure team unpacks the familiar pattern of U.S. stock market downturns during February and March, shedding light on underlying causes, common misconceptions, and practical ways for investors to capitalize on these recurring slumps. The discussion blends historical market analysis, technical signals, media manipulation, and macroeconomic warning signs—with a special focus on investor psychology and how current events are often used to steer retail behavior.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Predictable February-March Market Dip (03:13)

• Jenice Torres shares a market "traded tip of the week," emphasizing that market drops in February through March are standard, not exceptional, and have occurred nearly every year for the past 15 years.
  • Quote:

    "This is like preseason for investors and hedge funds before the money comes in...the cycle that you're seeing of the market being down right now is normal." (03:13)

• February-March is a generational buying opportunity for disciplined investors. The pattern almost always reverses as capital flows begin in the third week of March and into the "best six months" starting April.

2. Historical Context and Seasonality (04:20)

• Troy: Historical cycles suggest that while March is often slow, April-June typically outperform, encouraging listeners to position themselves for upcoming rebounds.
  • Quote:

    "When we look at the best six months to invest or trade, usually April is at the top...April, May, June have been solid." (04:20)

• Third week of March is especially notable due to events like quad witching and the end of Q1.

3. Technical Indicator: The VIX as a Leading Signal (05:43)

• Jenice: The VIX (Volatility Index) provides crucial signals. If the VIX moves above 27, it generally takes 1.5 to 2.5 months to revert under 21—a "buy the dip" cue for top stocks.
  • Quote:

    "Anytime that the Vix gets above 27, it normally takes anywhere from a month and a half to two and a half months for it to go back underneath 21." (05:43)

  • Recent example: VIX hit 36, then closed at 25 on the same day, highlighting extreme volatility and buying opportunities.

4. Media Hype & Market Manipulation (06:56)

• Jenice: Warns against being swayed by social media narratives and sensationalist coverage—specifically around oil prices and commodities. Hedge funds exploit retail enthusiasm as "exit liquidity."
  • Quote:

    "...now they're using that against you and getting on social media, people saying oil is going to go to 150. Do you know that the last time that oil was at 200 was 1929?" (06:56)

• The crude oil "hype cycle" is a distraction; investors should avoid chasing fast-moving, high-risk trades (crude features now $24k+/contract) unless highly experienced.

5. Geopolitics, Private Credit Risks, and Structural Economic Weakness (09:59)

• Topic: JP Morgan's prediction of a possible 10% S&P dip due to Iran and oil shocks.
• Jenice: Disputes that geopolitics are the main culprit; emphasizes the looming private credit bubble, fund withdrawal restrictions, and a deteriorating domestic job market.
  • Quote:

    "If we fall 10%, it won't be because of the Iran issue solely. We're not talking enough about the credit, private credit market issue. I think this is one of the biggest bubbles that's not being talked about." (10:20)

• Rashad: Expands on U.S. fragility: record credit card debt, government shutdown threats, and a weak housing market signal deeper, systemic troubles.
  • Quote:

    "Domestically, there's a lot of signs that points to a pretty weakening economy for the average person." (11:42)

6. Reframing Corrections (13:07)

• Troy: Reminds listeners that a 10% correction is routine—not catastrophic. It can present healthy, welcomed opportunities for patient investors.
  • Quote:

    "First and foremost, if we pull back 10%, we shouldn't feel like, oh my gosh, our account is about to go to shambles. Not 10% would be an actually welcomed correction." (13:07)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This is like preseason for investors and hedge funds before the money comes in." —Jenice Torres, (03:13)
• "Block out the noise...keep your eyes on the VIX and if the VIX hits 27 or 30 or 35, that's a good time to buy into the top 10 stocks and you'll be a. Okay." —Jenice Torres, (05:43)
• "They turned the crude market into a meme stock. By the time you get to chasing that move... you're now being used for the exit liquidity for the hedge funds and they're playing in your faces and there's nothing you can do about it." —Jenice Torres, (06:56)
• "Never in the history of American capitalism do they come to black people and say, this is the investment to make." —Jenice Torres, (08:44)
• "This class of investors is better than ever. And now they're using that against you and getting on social media, people saying oil is going to go to 150." —Jenice Torres, (06:56)
• "If we fall 10%, it won't be because of the Iran issue solely... I think this is one of the biggest bubbles that's not being talked about." —Jenice Torres, (10:20)
• "Domestically, there's a lot of signs that points to a pretty weakening economy for the average person. —Rashad, (11:42)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:09 — Market’s seasonal February-March drop explained
• 04:20 — April-June “best six months” insight, what to expect in Q2
• 05:43 — How to use the VIX as a guide for entries & exits
• 06:56 — Media hype, retail traders, and manipulation: oil as a cautionary tale
• 08:44 — The importance of skepticism for underrepresented investors
• 09:59 — JP Morgan’s S&P 10% drop forecast, geopolitics, and private credit dangers
• 11:42 — Rashad unpacks U.S. economic stress: jobs, debt, housing
• 13:07 — Why a 10% correction is healthy and shouldn’t cause panic

Summary Takeaways

• Seasonal declines in February-March are routine and should be expected; smart investors can use the dip as a buying opportunity.
• Ignore social media hype and focus on fundamental indicators like the VIX; don't chase trendy assets unless you’re highly skilled.
• Major corrections (even 10%) are often healthy and should not unsettle disciplined investors.
• Watch for deeper systemic risks: private credit market instability and persistent job market weakness may be more dangerous than geopolitical headlines suggest.
• Patience, skepticism, and discipline—combined with historical perspective—remain essential for building long-term wealth.

Listeners should treat corrections as a feature, not a bug—opportunities, not emergencies—and maintain a critical eye toward both news narratives and investment fads.