Why the Market CRASHES Every February (And How to Profit)

Summary

Podcast Summary: Earn Your Leisure — "Why the Market CRASHES Every February (And How to Profit)"

Date: March 15, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal, Troy Millings
Featured Guest/Commentator: Jenice Torres
Publisher: iHeartPodcasts

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Episode Overview

In this insightful episode, the Earn Your Leisure team unpacks the familiar pattern of U.S. stock market downturns during February and March, shedding light on underlying causes, common misconceptions, and practical ways for investors to capitalize on these recurring slumps. The discussion blends historical market analysis, technical signals, media manipulation, and macroeconomic warning signs—with a special focus on investor psychology and how current events are often used to steer retail behavior.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Predictable February-March Market Dip (03:13)

• Jenice Torres shares a market "traded tip of the week," emphasizing that market drops in February through March are standard, not exceptional, and have occurred nearly every year for the past 15 years.
  • Quote:

    "This is like preseason for investors and hedge funds before the money comes in...the cycle that you're seeing of the market being down right now is normal." (03:13)

• February-March is a generational buying opportunity for disciplined investors. The pattern almost always reverses as capital flows begin in the third week of March and into the "best six months" starting April.

2. Historical Context and Seasonality (04:20)

• Troy: Historical cycles suggest that while March is often slow, April-June typically outperform, encouraging listeners to position themselves for upcoming rebounds.
  • Quote:

    "When we look at the best six months to invest or trade, usually April is at the top...April, May, June have been solid." (04:20)

• Third week of March is especially notable due to events like quad witching and the end of Q1.

3. Technical Indicator: The VIX as a Leading Signal (05:43)

• Jenice: The VIX (Volatility Index) provides crucial signals. If the VIX moves above 27, it generally takes 1.5 to 2.5 months to revert under 21—a "buy the dip" cue for top stocks.
  • Quote:

    "Anytime that the Vix gets above 27, it normally takes anywhere from a month and a half to two and a half months for it to go back underneath 21." (05:43)

  • Recent example: VIX hit 36, then closed at 25 on the same day, highlighting extreme volatility and buying opportunities.

4. Media Hype & Market Manipulation (06:56)

• Jenice: Warns against being swayed by social media narratives and sensationalist coverage—specifically around oil prices and commodities. Hedge funds exploit retail enthusiasm as "exit liquidity."
  • Quote:

    "...now they're using that against you and getting on social media, people saying oil is going to go to 150. Do you know that the last time that oil was at 200 was 1929?" (06:56)

• The crude oil "hype cycle" is a distraction; investors should avoid chasing fast-moving, high-risk trades (crude features now $24k+/contract) unless highly experienced.

5. Geopolitics, Private Credit Risks, and Structural Economic Weakness (09:59)

• Topic: JP Morgan's prediction of a possible 10% S&P dip due to Iran and oil shocks.
• Jenice: Disputes that geopolitics are the main culprit; emphasizes the looming private credit bubble, fund withdrawal restrictions, and a deteriorating domestic job market.
  • Quote:

    "If we fall 10%, it won't be because of the Iran issue solely. We're not talking enough about the credit, private credit market issue. I think this is one of the biggest bubbles that's not being talked about." (10:20)

• Rashad: Expands on U.S. fragility: record credit card debt, government shutdown threats, and a weak housing market signal deeper, systemic troubles.
  • Quote:

    "Domestically, there's a lot of signs that points to a pretty weakening economy for the average person." (11:42)

6. Reframing Corrections (13:07)

• Troy: Reminds listeners that a 10% correction is routine—not catastrophic. It can present healthy, welcomed opportunities for patient investors.
  • Quote:

    "First and foremost, if we pull back 10%, we shouldn't feel like, oh my gosh, our account is about to go to shambles. Not 10% would be an actually welcomed correction." (13:07)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This is like preseason for investors and hedge funds before the money comes in." —Jenice Torres, (03:13)
• "Block out the noise...keep your eyes on the VIX and if the VIX hits 27 or 30 or 35, that's a good time to buy into the top 10 stocks and you'll be a. Okay." —Jenice Torres, (05:43)
• "They turned the crude market into a meme stock. By the time you get to chasing that move... you're now being used for the exit liquidity for the hedge funds and they're playing in your faces and there's nothing you can do about it." —Jenice Torres, (06:56)
• "Never in the history of American capitalism do they come to black people and say, this is the investment to make." —Jenice Torres, (08:44)
• "This class of investors is better than ever. And now they're using that against you and getting on social media, people saying oil is going to go to 150." —Jenice Torres, (06:56)
• "If we fall 10%, it won't be because of the Iran issue solely... I think this is one of the biggest bubbles that's not being talked about." —Jenice Torres, (10:20)
• "Domestically, there's a lot of signs that points to a pretty weakening economy for the average person. —Rashad, (11:42)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:09 — Market’s seasonal February-March drop explained
• 04:20 — April-June “best six months” insight, what to expect in Q2
• 05:43 — How to use the VIX as a guide for entries & exits
• 06:56 — Media hype, retail traders, and manipulation: oil as a cautionary tale
• 08:44 — The importance of skepticism for underrepresented investors
• 09:59 — JP Morgan’s S&P 10% drop forecast, geopolitics, and private credit dangers
• 11:42 — Rashad unpacks U.S. economic stress: jobs, debt, housing
• 13:07 — Why a 10% correction is healthy and shouldn’t cause panic

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Summary Takeaways

• Seasonal declines in February-March are routine and should be expected; smart investors can use the dip as a buying opportunity.
• Ignore social media hype and focus on fundamental indicators like the VIX; don't chase trendy assets unless you’re highly skilled.
• Major corrections (even 10%) are often healthy and should not unsettle disciplined investors.
• Watch for deeper systemic risks: private credit market instability and persistent job market weakness may be more dangerous than geopolitical headlines suggest.
• Patience, skepticism, and discipline—combined with historical perspective—remain essential for building long-term wealth.

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Listeners should treat corrections as a feature, not a bug—opportunities, not emergencies—and maintain a critical eye toward both news narratives and investment fads.

Transcript

[Jenice Torres]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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[Rashad]

What's the traded tip of the week?

[Jenice Torres]

For all my investors who are worried about what's going on in the market right now, I need you to know that the market dropped February through March of 2026. This year also 2025-2023-2022-2020 in 2018. This is the time. This is like preseason for investors and hedge funds before the money comes in. I know there's a lot of doom and gloom that's going on in the world right now, but the cycle that you're seeing of the market being down right now is normal. The cause in 23 and 22 and 18 may be different. But every year, give in the last 15 years, I need you to expect for just like we have that drop in late July, August that we have February through March. Until that capital starts to flow in that third week of March, we're going to be down. Stop worrying. It's going to be okay. It's giving you a time, a generational time to buy. Everything is going to be fine. The market normally goes down in February and March.

[Troy]

Yeah, that's important. I love the historical perspective because it gives context to it. I think when you add into what's happened in March, we got quadruple witching, right? The third, the first quarter is ending at the end of March. You got the third week of the quarter in the last month, which would be March. So that's going to happen as well. But on the other side of it, right, when we look at the best six months to invest or trade, usually April is at the top. And so when you see opportunities like we saw last week and maybe you saw something earlier today, we'll talk about it a little bit later, you position yourself to be in these spots when April comes. We saw it last year, right when with Liberation Day, that happened in April and then we saw the rebound in the best six months after that. Yeah, that felt like an anomaly. But if you look historically, April, May, June have been solid month that second quarter of the year. Like you said, deal flows start to come in a little bit differently. People's quarterly report has changed, their end of the year has changed.

[Jenice Torres]

Sure.

[Troy]

Which is something that, that we actually, we found out about actually last week. It was like yo, you set when your, your, your year end is right depending on when you created your business. So just absolutely. Having historical contact is important and understanding that we've been here before is important and understanding like look, if you're going to invest, do it regularly but keep these things in mind before you make a move.

[Jenice Torres]

And secondly, anytime that the Vix gets above 27, it normally takes anywhere from a month and a half to two and a half months for it to go back underneath 21. Once again, the most important chart if you're going to be looking at it from a technical standpoint that cannot be manipulated, we'll talk about manipulation later is the vix. So usually for me two months I should expect the VIX should be back around 20 which will lead into that April scenario that you talked about as well. Block out the noise like we told you last week where oil would go when to be concerned. But keep your eyes on the VIX and if The VIX hits 27 or 30 or 35, that's a good time to buy into the top 10 stocks and you'll be a. Okay.

[Troy]

Yeah, we saw The Vix hit 36 today. I think it closed at 25 which was a huge swing. 10 points on a Vixes.

[Jenice Torres]

Hell of a turnaround.

[Troy]

That's pretty, pretty abnormal but pretty aggressive. Yeah, it happened. But like you said, if you were here last week, you heard those numbers, you heard 93, 50, I talked about 110 and 120 and we got all those ranges and that quick we were out of them. Interesting times.

[Jenice Torres]

And that's why I kept saying the oil trade is over, it's priced in. I don't know when you guys want to talk about it but man, this is a different time geopolitically in terms of the market. They turned the crude market into a meme stock. By the time you get to chasing that move, I'm not hating or gatekeeping. You just didn't listen the first time Rashad and told you what to invest in from day one. Troy told you, I told you Amgen, Lilly, Costco, Walmart, amd, Nvidia, those are all my picks early on they're still there. But you are now being used for the exit liquidity for the hedge funds and they're playing in your faces and there's nothing you can do about it. You have to be smarter than ever. They realize that this class of investors is better than ever. And now they're using that against you and getting on social media, people saying oil is going to go to 150. Do you know that the last time that oil was at 200 was 1929? For every $10 move that we have in crude, gasoline is going to go up by 35 cent. That will cripple the American economy and it's already in shambles as is.

[Troy]

So did it feel like a test like the past couple? I mean, if you're on social media, if you watch the news, you hear oil, you hear oil, you keep hearing oil, you keep hearing your gas prices are going to go up for the beginner, like that intermediate, maybe that investor, the retail investor that hasn't been through it, hasn't heard it. Did you feel like it maybe was a test to see what will they do? Will they say, hey, we're going to buy future contracts when they get into 100, or options contracts when it gets for it to get to 100. And then you're sitting there Sunday night and you're like, wow, we're at 117. And then you wake up at 9:31 and you're back at 94, 97. Did it feel like a test?

[Jenice Torres]

I said it since episode 70. Never in the history of American capitalism do they come to black people and say, this is the investment to make.

[Rashad]

First

[Jenice Torres]

you got to be as cool as Rashad is sitting. Calm and comfortable and chill. That's the biggest lesson in investing is that investors love certainty. But when you have everyone saying it's going to 150, 200, and then people are getting excited and then you're like, well, Ian's gatekeeping. I'm like, I'm trying to protect you. If you haven't traded the crew like even this. Crude contracts used to cost 8,000 per contract. As of last week, they're $24,737.50 for one contract. It's not even the best use of capital. The Vix, which pays five times more, is 20,000 per contract. So all of a sudden, last two months ago, it was gold and everyone wanted the gold move. Now it became crude. Just like Trump is having a different target for every month. They're going to push a different financial instrument in front of your face every month. You got to stick to the four that you know. And if you haven't traded crew features before, now is not the time to play.

[Rashad]

Yeah, let's talk about this. JP Morgan predicts that S&P could fall 10% because of the Iran war and rising oil prices. So 10% correction is what JP Morgan is calling for potentially. What do you think?

[Jenice Torres]

If we fall 10%, it won't be because of the Iran issue solely. We're not talking enough about the credit, private credit market issue. I think this is one of the biggest bubbles that's not being talked about. When I was talking about on stock club call, people are asking like, okay, is this a retail issue? Because some retail investors have access to private credit and private equity. Now kkr, Apollo, Aries, those are not retail platforms, those are institutional. So blue aisle may be down 63% which is retail facing. But when you see that Aries blackrock, like blackrock stopped allowing people to withdraw money, shout to blackrock. But that's the first canary in a coal mine where you're like, oh shit is tougher than what you really think it is and that what it's reporting to be. So I think, will it be a combination of factors? Yes. But Iran I think is probably the smallest issue on the table right now as to why the stock market would drop. I think there is a lot of issues around the circular investment, private credit and then also the job market is in shambles and no one wants to talk about it. And they keep revising these numbers and lying about these numbers. I don't think we have gotten an honest job report in the last two and a half years.

[Rashad]

Well, that's what I was going to say. As far as the job, yes, there's a variety of different things. The job market is in shambles and it's even worse than, it's even worse than what's being reported because you got people that's not even looking for jobs anymore and then you got a variety of young people that don't even know where to start to look for jobs. So they're not, they're not necessarily filing unemployment because they just graduated from college and they still just trying to figure it out. They just at home with their parents just in the basement watching Andrew Tate all day. Yeah, credit, credit card debt all time high. When you look at, I mean they quietly about to have another government shutdown. Tsa, you said get to the airport five hours early because they can't, they can't pay tsa. Five hours is crazy. You can't even check your bag more than three hours. Yeah, housing, this is the first time I think in over 10 years the, the rate of houses that's being sold right now at like a 10 year low. So that means that people aren't are not spending money on real estate in the same way or can afford to. Yeah, I mean, the list goes on. So domestically, there's a lot of signs that points to a pretty weakening economy for the average person.

[Troy]

Yeah, I think I agree with a lot of the points. I agree that, well, first, 10% is pretty normal. First and foremost, if we pull back 10%, we shouldn't feel like, oh my gosh, our account is about to go to shambles. Not 10% would be an actually welcomed correction.

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[Jenice Torres]

Jenice Torres here and I'm Austin Hankwitz.

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We host the podcast Mind the Business Small Business Success Stories produced by Ruby

[Troy]

Studio in partnership with Intuit QuickBooks.

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We're back for season four to talk to some incredible small business owners.

[Jenice Torres]

The big thing about working at tech is that it's ever evolving, ever changing.

[Troy]

Everyone's a rookie.

[Jenice Torres]

That's how fast the industry is changing. So what I'm really excited about is to be part of that change. So listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple

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Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Jenice Torres]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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