Why TSM Might Be The Most Important Company In The World

Summary

Podcast Summary: Earn Your Leisure

Episode: Why TSM Might Be The Most Important Company In The World
Date: May 18, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal, Troy Millings
Podcast: Earn Your Leisure

Episode Overview

This episode centers around Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC or TSM), exploring its pivotal role in the global technology and finance ecosystem. The hosts break down TSM’s recent performance, the company’s strategic moves amidst surging demand and geopolitical tensions, and its importance to the AI revolution and wider semiconductor industry. They also provide a practical investor’s perspective on market cycles and the importance of risk management during unprecedented market gains.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. TSMC’s Market Performance & Significance

• Stock Movement and Unprecedented Growth

  • TSMC’s 52-week low was $184, and the high is $420, currently hovering above $400.
  • Host 1 observes, “It hit this 400 mark and it almost felt like it might have been its resistance. But what's happening is that they have so much demand that they're trying to build the fabs fast enough so they can meet it.” (06:33)
  • The hosts highlight that TSMC’s stock gains have outstripped many others, and it remains largely unheralded compared to names like Micron or SanDisk.

• TSMC’s Unique Role in Global Tech

  • The company is central to the semiconductor industry, especially for AI chips, making it indispensable. “They have so much demand that they're trying to build the fabs fast enough so they can meet it. And so, that becomes a slight issue.” (06:33)
  • TSMC is now at the heart of the AI revolution: “It's vital to the AI story. It has to succeed in order for the space to succeed.” (08:09)
  • TSMC is building new fabrication plants (“fabs”) in Arizona and expanding within Taiwan to meet surging order volume.

2. Supply Chain & Geopolitical Context

• Manufacturing Bottlenecks & Supplier Strategy

  • TSMC’s demand is so high that it’s outsourcing some manufacturing. There are also attempts to domesticate advanced chip production in the US.
  • The company is even exploring in-house development of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography machines, potentially reducing reliance on ASML. “We're trying to make the next machine ourselves, right? Like what ASML does is great ... but they're saying, look, we might even need to be even more dependent on what we can make.” (07:11)

• Geopolitical Risks

  • Persistent anxieties about China-Taiwan relations and what it means for TSMC’s operations and global chip supply.

3. Investment Realities and Market Caution

• Unusual Market Gains and Risk Management

  • Host 5 cautions, “Can we stop saying ... the companies that have gained 130% return have not performed how they should? ... This is not normal and it's not going to continue.” (08:26)
  • The hosts stress that outsized gains in one year must be viewed within a long-term framework—market corrections are inevitable. “They’re giving you three years worth of gains in one year.... Factor in if the market drops and we have a rough year in '27, you're going to have to take care of yourself for the next two years off of this year's gains.” (08:51)
  • There is an emphasis on being financially prudent and conservative as uncertainty looms. “No luxury spending for the next two years unless you hit your freedom numbers.... The economy is shakier than ever and most people on social media ... they're lying. We know all of them.” (09:58)

• Perspective on Big Returns and Company Growth

  • A trillion-dollar company gaining 20% is portrayed as extraordinary. “Having a trillion dollar company move 20% is tough. That's a really good year. But the crazy part is that it's still part of the growth story and it's going to continue.” (11:28)
  • There are now 13 companies with trillion-dollar market caps, signaling a historic era for large-cap growth.

4. Broader Technology and Consumer Trends

• Shift to Affordable Tech & Collaborative Strategies
  • The hosts note a shift toward affordable luxury tech products, like a “more affordable MacBook and an affordable AP.” (10:27)
  • These collaborations and product strategies are viewed as a sign of economic timing and market adaptation.
  • “That's telling about the timing of when these collaborations are coming out.” (10:41)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On TSMC’s Essential Role:

  • “It's vital to the AI story. It has to succeed in order for the space to succeed.” (08:09) — Host 1

• On Unprecedented Market Gains:

  • “This is not normal and it's not going to continue.... You're going to have to take care of yourself for the next two years off of this year's gains.” (08:51) — Host 5

• On Prudence and Social Media Hype:

  • “Most people on social media that are reporting how well they're doing, they're lying. We know all of them.” (09:58) — Host 5

• On Company Performance Perspective:

  • “A trillion dollar company move 20% is tough... That's a really good year. But the crazy part is it's still part of the growth story and it's going to continue.” (11:28) — Host 1

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Important Timestamps

• 05:47 – Segment begins: TSMC stock performance, supply and demand
• 06:20 – Comparing TSMC with other chipmakers; TSMC’s long-standing importance
• 06:33 – TSMC's expansion, manufacturing, and strategic independence
• 07:11 – TSMC looks beyond ASML, aims for in-house innovation
• 08:07 – TSMC’s indispensability to the AI revolution
• 08:26 – Market returns realism and risk management discussion
• 09:58 – Advice: financial prudence, avoiding luxury spending, social media realities
• 11:02 – Putting TSMC's percentage gains in trillion-dollar context, discussing market caps

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Conclusion

The episode makes the case that TSMC is, perhaps, the most crucial company in the world right now due to its unmatched position in global semiconductor production, especially as it relates to AI. The conversation balances excitement about record market returns with sobering guidance about economic cycles, personal wealth management, and the importance of staying grounded as the industry and markets evolve at breakneck speed.

Transcript

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Not to cut you off, but. All right, so let's get into topics. Tsm, tsm. We haven't talked about TSM in a while. So TSM is having a good year. It's, it's 52 week low is 84. 184. 52 week high is 420. Hovering like above 400 right now. So TSM has not been talked about as much as like Micron or sandisk. So TSM is TSM on, on the verge of something historic?

[Host 1]

I think. I mean I felt like tsm, we talked about it so much that it was like we had to find some new companies to talk about because. Oh yes, right. It's been the company, it's been my number one company. That and Amazon, I think since the

[Host 4]

start of the show.

[Host 1]

Just because we know the role that it plays. I think what we're seeing right now over the past week or so is it's kind of like it hit this 400 mark and it almost felt like it might have been it's resistance. But what's happening is that they have so much demand that they're trying to build the fabs fast enough so they can meet it. And so that, that becomes a slight issue. So much so that they've had to sign on other companies to help them with some of the manufacturing. I know we're trying to get the fabs here in Arizona up and running. They're trying to build out even more. So inside of Taiwan. The geopolitical threat is still there. TSM is at the core of it. So much so last week that there was a report that they said that, you know, we talked about how the cognitive AI works, right? ASML makes the machines, TSM buys the machines and manufactures for the rest of the world. They said, look, we're trying to make the next machine ourselves, right? Like what ASML does is great and they still have customers. It's not the fall of ASML by any means. They'll still have their customers. But they're saying, look, we might even need to be even more dependent on what we can make. And so they're looking at the long term, five to ten years. Hey, we build the next EUV machine for ourselves. That way we don't have to spend 400 million per machine to meet demand and we can produce at the highest level. They're not going anywhere. In fact if that story changes then I will come on market Mondays and it will be a very different tone. But as long as TSM has said that demand is still at the highest levels, the backlog is sort of the issue why it hasn't gone. We've said this on here a bunch of times. We wouldn't be surprised if it was a $300 stock and here we are at 400.

[Host 5]

400.

[Host 1]

That, that, that's a company that doesn't go anywhere. Yes, we're very aware of the geopolitical threat obviously with China and Taiwan. But it's vital to the, to the AI story. It has to succeed in order for the space to succeed.

[Host 5]

Okay, really quick to piggyback off that. Can we stop saying in general the companies that have gained 130% return have not performed how they should Like I know some of you are excited and this may be your first year investing. This is not normal and it's not going to continue. Here's what's happening.

[Host 1]

Let that breathe for a second.

[Host 5]

Let that giving you three years worth of gains in one year. So when the economy goes to they can say we gave you the etf, we gave you tsm, we give you Micron. If you haven't figured out a way to be okay and financially viable after this run up even in private equity and I'm seeing how many people that were employees of OpenAI elect to cash out now opposed to waiting. The IPO I think is very telling. So even if you're getting 200% gains this year, factor in if the market drops and we have a rough year in 27, you're going to have to take care of yourself for the next two years off of this year's gains. That's why Rashad was like hey I'm conservative. We've seen the story before. There's a been a bunch of high flying stocks that have went up 3 400% in the and the option as a result has went up 700% in the early 2000s. And what happened a year later t 2021 had a hell of a run up 2022 came I'm like they changed the definition of the recession but the entire market still fell. You need a financial umbrella so it's great. And that's why I posted yesterday and today no luxury spending for the next two years unless you hit your freedom numbers. Well what about do what you want but I'm telling you, the economy is shakier than ever and most people on social media that are reporting how well they're doing, they're lying. We know all of them.

[Host 1]

So that means, that means no, no, no, no AP Swatch for you.

[Host 5]

I mean that, that price point. Xander said this looks like garbage. I said listen my brother. But, but that, that's not a luxury price point for me. But shout out to listen. Even with that, everyone's a competition, even them. Collaborate. Think about this. In the last three months, we've got a affordable MacBook and an affordable AP. That's telling that, that is very telling about the timing of when these collaborations are coming out.

[Host 1]

So yeah, yeah, I think just the last point on TSM, if it, it's up 26 this year. If it, if it stopped this year, then trade it like that would be a good year, right? 26% return on a company that large, a trillion dollar company is a great move. If you go span out from year to date, it's up 117. If you look at the past five years, 260%.

[Host 4]

What do you want?

[Host 1]

Yeah, so like having a trillion dollar company move 20% is tough. That's a, that's a really good year. But the crazy part is that it's still part of the growth story and it's going to continue. I was actually looking at the market caps of trillion dollar companies.

[Host 4]

You know, we got 13 right now.

[Host 1]

Like we started to show there was none.

[Host 4]

Like we were there.

[Host 1]

We saw the first One, we're at 13 now. MICRON we watched on Friday it hit 700 billion and went over 700 a share. Now we're up at 8. It's that like this will probably be all likelihood the next trillion dollar company. So I mean just unprecedented times.

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