Earn Your Leisure Podcast: "Will Gold Keep Climbing? Deep Dive into Safe Havens & Market Hedging"
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Date: October 11, 2025
Episode Theme:
This episode provides an in-depth analysis of gold's recent surge, its status as a safe-haven asset, and the broader topic of market hedging. The hosts and analysts dive into the drivers behind gold’s performance, the macroeconomic forces at play, and strategies for investors in uncertain markets.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Gold at (Near) All-Time Highs
- [02:08] Analyst kicks off by acknowledging gold's impressive run, noting, "Goal has actually outperformed the NASDAQ over the last year to date."
- Gold’s appeal as a safe haven is at the forefront:
“Gold also as far as like has been doing well for a very long period of time and that’s a safe haven for people that don’t believe in central currencies.” — Gold Market Analyst 3
- Reference to notable investors (e.g., Mike Novogratz) who have publicly advocated for gold and bitcoin as hedges against volatility and government uncertainty.
2. Risk-On vs. Pro-Hedge Investors
- [03:02] Analyst outlines the two primary investor attitudes:
- Risk-on: Favoring AI, crypto, technology stocks
- Pro-hedge: Looking for safety in assets like gold
- Emphasis: Both investor types can be right, but hedging is critical.
"Gold is the ultimate hedge that is end up outperforming a lot of classes ... and I don't see this pulling back anytime soon." — Gold Market Analyst 2
- Analyst predicts no imminent slowdown for gold, expecting continued appreciation by year-end with a tongue-in-cheek price target of “39120 [likely a misstatement, meaning $3,912.0] or 391.92 on gold.”
3. What Could Cause Gold to Retrace?
- [04:26] Analyst 1 questions whether anything could trigger a short-term gold pullback, especially amid government shutdowns and lack of new data (jobs report, Fed policy).
- [04:51] Analyst 2 responds:
- Key point: Only massive money printing (quantitative easing) like in 2008, 2009, or 2020 would shift flows away from gold.
- Current environment makes this unlikely for both U.S. and China.
“Unless we have that kind of money flowing worldwide, there’s no reason to take a short against gold.” — Gold Market Analyst 2, 04:51
4. Relationship to Interest Rates and Money Printing
- [05:51] Analyst 1 references COVID-era money printing as even more aggressive than prior QE, suggesting this contributed to asset inflation including gold.
- [10:16] Discussion returns to how falling interest rates (but not to 0%) would likely continue to be supportive for gold.
5. Investment Discipline and the “Golden Rule”
- [11:28] Both analysts urge listeners to “follow the money” and not overcomplicate investing:
“The golden rule is, is we follow the money like the tea leaves are left for you.” — Gold Market Analyst 1, 11:28
“Stop being hard headed.” — Gold Market Analyst 2, 11:51
“If you don't listen, you deserve it.” — Gold Market Analyst 1, 12:04 - Investing in gold viewed as a “cornerstone” of an all-weather portfolio, referencing Ray Dalio’s famous portfolio strategy but cautioning that institutions have different approaches than the public sees.
6. Physical Gold Flows and International Trade
- [12:07] Fascinating snapshot of global gold flows:
- Guinea flies cargo planes full of gold to Dubai twice a week.
“Emirates... flies two times a week from here to the UAE in the plane. It's a cargo plane that's loaded with gold and two trips every single week full of gold.” — Gold Market Analyst 3, 12:38
- Alludes to even more gold potentially being transferred covertly, unreported via unrefined minerals.
- Fort Knox mentioned as a key storage facility highlighting gold’s enduring value.
7. Reaffirmation: Gold as Reliable Hedge
- [10:39] Analyst 2 circles back to Ray Dalio’s “All-Weather Portfolio,” making it clear gold’s core role is both time-tested and currently more essential than ever given global volatility.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On gold’s value and necessity of portfolio hedging:
“Gold is the ultimate hedge that has ended up outperforming a lot of classes as you just mentioned. And I don't see this pulling back anytime soon.”
— Gold Market Analyst 2, 03:17 - On the folly of ignoring the evidence:
“Stop being hard headed … Or you deserve to be broke. You don’t even need a book.”
— Gold Market Analyst 2, 12:00 - On following the path of smart money:
“The golden rule is, is we follow the money like the tea leaves are left for you.”
— Gold Market Analyst 1, 11:28 - On the physical reality of global gold trade:
“Emirates ... flies two times a week from here to the UAE ... a cargo plane that's loaded with gold... every single week full of gold.”
— Gold Market Analyst 3, 12:38
Important Timestamps
- 02:08 – Gold’s recent performance and role as a safe haven introduced
- 03:02 – Analysis of investor types and why gold keeps climbing
- 04:26 – What might cause a gold pullback? (Macro risks, QE)
- 05:51 – Historical comparison: Past money printing & asset inflation
- 10:16 – Re-examination of Fed policy and gold’s resilience
- 11:28 – “Follow the money”: Investment philosophy and discipline
- 12:07 – Real-world gold transport: Guinea to UAE shipping gold by Dubai-bound cargo planes
- 13:30 – Long-term historical view on gold’s performance
Summary Wrap-Up
In this episode, the Earn Your Leisure team and their analyst guests break down not only the reasons behind gold’s ongoing rise but why it remains essential to any balanced portfolio. They advocate for disciplined investing, learning from successful macro investors, and understanding both the big picture (global economics, interest rates) and the nitty gritty (physical flows of gold across the globe). Their tone is straightforward—sometimes blunt, sometimes humorous—but always rooted in real-world experience and financial sense.
“If you don’t listen, you deserve it.” — Gold Market Analyst 1, 12:04
This conversation serves as a practical guide for current or aspiring investors seeking safe havens and strategic hedging against a turbulent global backdrop. Whether you’re risk-on or risk-averse, the message rings clear: gold remains king for the cautious and wise.