Will Gold Keep Climbing? Deep Dive into Safe Havens & Market Hedging

Summary

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Earn Your Leisure Podcast: "Will Gold Keep Climbing? Deep Dive into Safe Havens & Market Hedging"

Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Date: October 11, 2025
Episode Theme:
This episode provides an in-depth analysis of gold's recent surge, its status as a safe-haven asset, and the broader topic of market hedging. The hosts and analysts dive into the drivers behind gold’s performance, the macroeconomic forces at play, and strategies for investors in uncertain markets.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Gold at (Near) All-Time Highs

• [02:08] Analyst kicks off by acknowledging gold's impressive run, noting, "Goal has actually outperformed the NASDAQ over the last year to date."
• Gold’s appeal as a safe haven is at the forefront:

  “Gold also as far as like has been doing well for a very long period of time and that’s a safe haven for people that don’t believe in central currencies.” — Gold Market Analyst 3

• Reference to notable investors (e.g., Mike Novogratz) who have publicly advocated for gold and bitcoin as hedges against volatility and government uncertainty.

2. Risk-On vs. Pro-Hedge Investors

• [03:02] Analyst outlines the two primary investor attitudes:
  • Risk-on: Favoring AI, crypto, technology stocks
  • Pro-hedge: Looking for safety in assets like gold
• Emphasis: Both investor types can be right, but hedging is critical.

  "Gold is the ultimate hedge that is end up outperforming a lot of classes ... and I don't see this pulling back anytime soon." — Gold Market Analyst 2

• Analyst predicts no imminent slowdown for gold, expecting continued appreciation by year-end with a tongue-in-cheek price target of “39120 [likely a misstatement, meaning $3,912.0] or 391.92 on gold.”

3. What Could Cause Gold to Retrace?

• [04:26] Analyst 1 questions whether anything could trigger a short-term gold pullback, especially amid government shutdowns and lack of new data (jobs report, Fed policy).
• [04:51] Analyst 2 responds:
  • Key point: Only massive money printing (quantitative easing) like in 2008, 2009, or 2020 would shift flows away from gold.
  • Current environment makes this unlikely for both U.S. and China.

  “Unless we have that kind of money flowing worldwide, there’s no reason to take a short against gold.” — Gold Market Analyst 2, 04:51

4. Relationship to Interest Rates and Money Printing

• [05:51] Analyst 1 references COVID-era money printing as even more aggressive than prior QE, suggesting this contributed to asset inflation including gold.
• [10:16] Discussion returns to how falling interest rates (but not to 0%) would likely continue to be supportive for gold.

5. Investment Discipline and the “Golden Rule”

• [11:28] Both analysts urge listeners to “follow the money” and not overcomplicate investing:

  “The golden rule is, is we follow the money like the tea leaves are left for you.” — Gold Market Analyst 1, 11:28
  “Stop being hard headed.” — Gold Market Analyst 2, 11:51
  “If you don't listen, you deserve it.” — Gold Market Analyst 1, 12:04

• Investing in gold viewed as a “cornerstone” of an all-weather portfolio, referencing Ray Dalio’s famous portfolio strategy but cautioning that institutions have different approaches than the public sees.

6. Physical Gold Flows and International Trade

• [12:07] Fascinating snapshot of global gold flows:
  • Guinea flies cargo planes full of gold to Dubai twice a week.

  “Emirates... flies two times a week from here to the UAE in the plane. It's a cargo plane that's loaded with gold and two trips every single week full of gold.” — Gold Market Analyst 3, 12:38

  • Alludes to even more gold potentially being transferred covertly, unreported via unrefined minerals.
  • Fort Knox mentioned as a key storage facility highlighting gold’s enduring value.

7. Reaffirmation: Gold as Reliable Hedge

• [10:39] Analyst 2 circles back to Ray Dalio’s “All-Weather Portfolio,” making it clear gold’s core role is both time-tested and currently more essential than ever given global volatility.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On gold’s value and necessity of portfolio hedging:

  “Gold is the ultimate hedge that has ended up outperforming a lot of classes as you just mentioned. And I don't see this pulling back anytime soon.”
  — Gold Market Analyst 2, 03:17

• On the folly of ignoring the evidence:

  “Stop being hard headed … Or you deserve to be broke. You don’t even need a book.”
  — Gold Market Analyst 2, 12:00

• On following the path of smart money:

  “The golden rule is, is we follow the money like the tea leaves are left for you.”
  — Gold Market Analyst 1, 11:28

• On the physical reality of global gold trade:

  “Emirates ... flies two times a week from here to the UAE ... a cargo plane that's loaded with gold... every single week full of gold.”
  — Gold Market Analyst 3, 12:38

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Important Timestamps

• 02:08 – Gold’s recent performance and role as a safe haven introduced
• 03:02 – Analysis of investor types and why gold keeps climbing
• 04:26 – What might cause a gold pullback? (Macro risks, QE)
• 05:51 – Historical comparison: Past money printing & asset inflation
• 10:16 – Re-examination of Fed policy and gold’s resilience
• 11:28 – “Follow the money”: Investment philosophy and discipline
• 12:07 – Real-world gold transport: Guinea to UAE shipping gold by Dubai-bound cargo planes
• 13:30 – Long-term historical view on gold’s performance

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Summary Wrap-Up

In this episode, the Earn Your Leisure team and their analyst guests break down not only the reasons behind gold’s ongoing rise but why it remains essential to any balanced portfolio. They advocate for disciplined investing, learning from successful macro investors, and understanding both the big picture (global economics, interest rates) and the nitty gritty (physical flows of gold across the globe). Their tone is straightforward—sometimes blunt, sometimes humorous—but always rooted in real-world experience and financial sense.

“If you don’t listen, you deserve it.” — Gold Market Analyst 1, 12:04

This conversation serves as a practical guide for current or aspiring investors seeking safe havens and strategic hedging against a turbulent global backdrop. Whether you’re risk-on or risk-averse, the message rings clear: gold remains king for the cautious and wise.

Transcript

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The murder of an 18 year old girl in Graves County, Kentucky went unsolved for years until a local housewife, a journalist and a handful of girls killed came forward with a story.

[Lauren LaRosa]

America, y' all better wake the hell up.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

Bad things happens to good people and small towns.

[Maggie Freeling]

Listen to Graves county on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and to binge the entire season ad free. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.

[Hunter (Hunting for Answers Host)]

Short on time, but big on true crime. On a recent episode of the podcast Hunting for Answers, I highlighted the story of 19 year old Lachey Dungey. But she never knocked on that door. She never made it inside. And that text message would be the last time anyone would ever hear from her. Listen to Hunting for Answers from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Narrator (Chinatown Sting Podcast)]

In early 1988, federal agents raced to track down the gang they suspect of importing millions of dollars worth of heroin into New York from Asia.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Had 30 agents ready to go with shotguns and rifles and you name it.

[Hunter (Hunting for Answers Host)]

Five, six white people pushed me in the car. I'm going, what the hell?

[Witness/Testimony Speaker]

Basically your stay at home moms were picking up these large amounts of heroin on.

[Witness/Testimony Speaker 2]

All you gotta do is receive the package. Don't have to open it, just accept it.

[Witness/Testimony Speaker]

She was very upset, crying.

[Witness/Testimony Speaker 2]

Once I saw the gun, I tried to take his hand and I saw the flash of light.

[Narrator (Chinatown Sting Podcast)]

Listen to the Chinatown sting on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere you get your podcasts.

[Gold Market Analyst 3]

We'll start with goal. Yep, go's at nearly an all time high and it's been reaching high. I saw some stat the other day where Goal has actually outperformed the NASDAQ over the last year to date. And once again, you know, we talked about gold before the election when Mike Novograss, that was one of his things that he was real big on before the election. He was just saying that he thought that gold and bitcoin were the two assets to hold because of the volatility in the government. And then with the government shut down. We're gonna talk about a little later as far as bitcoin you know, breaking new levels. But gold also as far as like has been doing well for a very long period of time and that's safe haven for people that don't believe in central currencies. So gold, is this something that's going to continue to go up over the course of time?

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Absolutely. You have two types of investors. You have risk on investors which are pro AI, pro crypto, pro technology and then you have pro hedge investors. And in this case both are right. We're going to talk later if this era is mirroring 1999-2000. But the thing that's really important is when you own asset classes you want them to hedge against each other. Gold is the ultimate hedge that is end up outperforming a lot of classes as you just mentioned. And I don't see this pulling back anytime soon. I know it's outside of a normal range for if you look at a multi quarter range but I think possibly by end of year we could even be at 39120 391.92 on gold. There is inherent risks in the market that people are not talking talking about. I know IWM is up, I know the nik was up because of the prime minister being elected or selected. But I think too many people have risk on and no hedge. So if the market does tank, I think gold will still continue to climb. One of the best investments and best assets of all time if you look at it from since inception. And it's not going to slow down anytime soon. So yes, go will continue to climb higher.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

I agree with you. I agree with you. I'll take the other position in a standpoint of what would cause it to have a retracement. Right. Especially with government uncertainty. We're not gonna like it was supposed to be a jobs report last week. We didn't get it. Fed policy. We're not getting it since there's a lockdown. Is there something. I don't even know if it's in the near future but at some point that would cause a sharp retracement for gold. Yeah.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

So in 2010 through 15 it was printed of money, quantitative easing and that money flowing around. So unless they print it the way they did in 2008, 2009 and that money circulates through, that would be the only thing to take some of the capital off because now if interest rates go to 0mm it's risk going for every asset. Meme stocks, crypto tech Russell 2000, Russell 1000s P400 is all bets on all money and shot the net. Rest in peace. But unless we have that kind of money flowing worldwide, there's no reason to take a short against gold. Because some people are starting to say, well, gold is overvalued, hidden certain levels on rsi. But it's like if you don't know the macroeconomic environment, I don't think the United States or even China is in a position to print money how they did in 0809 or 2020 as a result. And for that reason, I'll stay long on gold.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

Yeah, I mean, we printed the. The money printing definitely during COVID was even higher than that.

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[Gold Market Analyst 1]

All I know is what I've been told. And that's a half truth is a whole lie.

[Maggie Freeling]

For almost a decade, the murder of an 18 year old girl in Graves County, Kentucky went unsolved until a local homemaker, a journalist and a handful of girls came forward with a story.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

I'm telling you, we know Quincy killed her.

[Maggie Freeling]

We know a story that law enforcement used to convict six people and that got the citizen investigator on national tv.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

Through sheer persistence and nerve, this Kentucky housewife helped give justice to Jessica Curran.

[Maggie Freeling]

My name is Maggie Freeling. I'm a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist producer and I wouldn't be here if the truth were that easy to find.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

I did not know her and I.

[Hunter (Hunting for Answers Host)]

Did not kill her or rape or burn or any of that other stuff that y' all said.

[Lauren LaRosa]

They literally made me say that I.

[Hunter (Hunting for Answers Host)]

Took a match and struck and threw it on her. They made me say that I poured gas on her.

[Maggie Freeling]

From Lava for good. This is Graves County, a show about just how far our legal system will go in order to find someone to blame.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

America, y' all better wake the hell up. Bad things happens to good people and small towns.

[Maggie Freeling]

Listen to Graves county in the Bone Valley feed on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and to binge the entire season ad free. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.

[Hunter (Hunting for Answers Host)]

I'm Hunter, host of Hunting for Answers on the Black Effect Podcast Network. Join me every weekday as I share bite sized stories of missing and murdered black women and girls in America. There are several ways we can all do better at protecting black women. My contribution is shining a light on our missing sisters and amplifying their disregarded stories. Stories like Tameka Anderson. As she drove toward Galvez, she was in contact with several people talking on the phone as she made her way to what should have been a routine transaction. But Tameka never bought the car and she never returned home that day. One podcast, one mission. Save our girls. Join the search as we explore the chilling cases of missing and murdered black women and girls. Listen to Hunting for Answers every weekday on the Black Effect Podcast Network, iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Narrator (Chinatown Sting Podcast)]

In early 1988, federal agents raced to track down the gang they suspect of importing millions of dollars worth of heroin into New York from Asia.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

We had 30 agents ready to go with shotguns and rifles and you name it.

[Narrator (Chinatown Sting Podcast)]

But what they find is not what they expected.

[Witness/Testimony Speaker]

Basically your stay at home moms were picking up these large amounts of heroin.

[Witness/Testimony Speaker 2]

They go, is this your daughter? I said yes. They go, oh, you may not see her for like 25 years.

[Narrator (Chinatown Sting Podcast)]

Caught between a federal investigation and the violent gang who recruited them, the women must decide who they're willing to protect and who they dare to betray.

[Witness/Testimony Speaker 2]

Once I saw the gun, I tried to take his hand and I saw the flash of light.

[Narrator (Chinatown Sting Podcast)]

Listen to the Chinatown sting on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or anywhere you get your podcasts.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

And so now you know I'm with you. I think it still appreciates. I just wonder if there is something like is it a Fed policy that changes. Obviously we know if interest rates, the expectations that interest rate will continue to fall. I don't think we'll get to zero anytime soon or no if we ever will. I'm just that piece is like, yes, this is a hedge that we should be in. Just a thought though.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Going back to Ray Dalio's conversation though, shout out to Ray, you want an all weather portfolio? I don't agree with the assessment of because the public all weather portfolio versus what is done privately at that firm is different. But gold is a good cornerstone investment for sure. But I, I don't think unless interest rates go back to 1% or 0% and money is printed that gold is going to fall apart. And once again, if Novogratz is bold enough and loving enough to tell you this is what's going to happen and this is what I'm investing in. Why not just listen to what he's saying? He's not just talking his book. He's giving you the playbook ahead of time. Just follow to what he's saying as well.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

I think we've, the golden rule is, is we follow the money like the tea leaves are left for you.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Follow the thing.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

We have a tough time in this space when you're learning and you're learning things on your own and you kind of like, well I should follow it. But you go against, you know, your intuition. Sometimes it's painted for you. It's right in front of you. You just got to follow the path.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

And stop being hard headed.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

Yeah, yeah. I will be a disciplined investor.

[Gold Market Analyst 3]

Thank you.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Or you deserve to be broke. You pick. You don't even need a book. You deserve to be broke.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

If you don't listen, you deserve it.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Up to you.

[Gold Market Analyst 3]

That's a fact at all times. And go. You know, we have, we're in one of the major hubs of gold right now as far as guinea and a lot of people are not even familiar with the country, never heard of the country before. But the country has, is a population of 12 million people. So it's a relatively small country. But the uae, the, so they have, they have a flight. What's the airline? Emirates.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

Emirates, yep.

[Gold Market Analyst 3]

And it flies two times a week from here to the UAE in the plane. It's a, it's a cargo plane that's loaded with gold and two, two, two trips every single week full of gold.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

To Dubai or UA to Dubai about.

[Gold Market Analyst 3]

That every, every, every twice a week, every week.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

The real transfer fee.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

And that's the goal that they can account for.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Yep.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

There are other minerals that they are shipping that might contain gold inside of it just because of the refining process that hasn't been online yet. There might be gold that's going through other minerals as well.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

And for commodities, a good exercise is to look at like a 50 year historical chart just to see what the overall trend is. There's a reason why that plane is going in and out. And you know, we have such a robust storage of it at Fort Knox.

[Maggie Freeling]

The murder of an 18 year old girl in Graves County, Kentucky went unsolved for years until a local housewife, a journalist and a handful of girls came forward with a story.

[Lauren LaRosa]

America, y' all better wake the hell up.

[Gold Market Analyst 1]

Bad things happens to good people and small towns.

[Maggie Freeling]

Listen to Graves county on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and to binge the entire season ad free. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.

[Hunter (Hunting for Answers Host)]

Short on time, but big on true crime. On a recent episode of the podcast Hunting for Answers, I highlighted the story of 19 year old Lachey Duny. But she never knocked on that door. She never made it inside. And that text message would be the last time anyone would ever hear from her. Listen to Hunting for Answers from the Black Effect podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Narrator (Chinatown Sting Podcast)]

In early 1988, federal agents raced to track down the gang they suspect of importing millions of dollars worth of heroin into New York from Asia.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Had 30 agents ready to go with shotguns and rifles and you name it.

[Hunter (Hunting for Answers Host)]

Five, six white people pushed me in the car. I'm going, what the hell?

[Witness/Testimony Speaker]

Basically your stay at home moms were picking up these large amounts of heroin.

[Witness/Testimony Speaker 2]

All you gotta do is receive the package. Don't have to open it, just accept it.

[Witness/Testimony Speaker]

She was very upset, crying.

[Witness/Testimony Speaker 2]

Once I saw the gun, I tried to take his hand and I saw the flash of light.

[Narrator (Chinatown Sting Podcast)]

Listen to the Chinatown sting on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere you get your podcasts.

[Lauren LaRosa]

I'm the homegirl that knows a little bit about everything. And everybody let me know.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Lauren LaRosa. You hear that Exclusive?

[Hunter (Hunting for Answers Host)]

Lauren came in high.

[Lauren LaRosa]

I came in telling the truth. Every day I'm bringing you the latest in entertainment, breaking down the headlines you can't stop talking about. And giving you my very unfiltered take on the biggest stories in the industry. From exclusive news and y' all know I got it to us breaking down the interviews. Cause y' all are my co hosts now. I'm giving you the deep dives on some of the biggest moments in pop culture.

[Gold Market Analyst 2]

Oh, my God.

[Lauren LaRosa]

Listen to the Latest with Lauren LaRosa, weekdays on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.