Will the Bull Market Continue? Economic Outlook for 2026 with Caleb Silver

Summary

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Earn Your Leisure – Will the Bull Market Continue? Economic Outlook for 2026 with Caleb Silver

Podcast: Earn Your Leisure
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Guest: Caleb Silver (Editor-in-Chief, Investopedia)
Date: December 14, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode centers around the current state and the future outlook of the U.S. economy and stock market, particularly as we move toward 2026. With insights from Caleb Silver, the discussion addresses mounting uncertainties—from a historic government jobs report cancellation to investor anxiety over inflation and potential market corrections. The hosts and guest break down whether the ongoing bull market can sustain itself, how sector rotations and mega-cap stocks drive returns, and what trends retail investors should be watching.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Significance of the Jobs Report Cancellation

• [03:18] Rashad opens on the unprecedented cancellation of the government jobs report and its implications.
• Caleb Silver responds by contextualizing the loss:
  • While troubling for business journalists, private payroll data (e.g., ADP) now offers richer and timelier insights than government surveys.
  • He emphasizes, “People feel terrible about the economy right now… Consumer confidence… is almost as low as it was during the great financial crisis. And we're in much better shape than we were back then.” [04:00]
  • Despite pessimism, tangible economic indicators like low unemployment (4.4–5%) and steady wage growth (3.5–4%) suggest a healthier environment than public sentiment reflects.
  • Inflation fears loom, particularly about healthcare costs, but Silver argues corporate profits and ongoing spending remain strong drivers.

2. Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Outlook

• [05:35] Caleb Silver: Predicts upcoming lower interest rates, saying, “The Fed… will probably lower rates by a quarter point… signal… a full percentage point lower one year from now.” Lower rates are expected to boost economic growth and equities.
• He describes how persistent consumer spending and multitrillion-dollar corporate investments continue to underpin the economy.
• Quote: “Economic growth is going to be there with lower interest rates next year… tariffs being more smoke than fire really at this point.” [05:55]

3. The Bull Market—Breadth Beyond Big Tech

• [06:49] Rashad asks how the market can sustain itself if “Mag 7” (mega-cap tech stocks) lose momentum, given their dominance.
• Caleb Silver:
  • Explains S&P 500’s market weighting and how the equal-weighted index has lagged behind (“about 10% this year”).
  • Notes a recent positive sign: “a majority of stocks rallying at the same time… that's what you want to see in a healthy bull market.” [07:24]
  • Broader participation is showing up in commodities, healthcare, and financials—not just tech.
  • Quote: “The trend is up into the right, especially with lower interest rates on the horizon. That powers small to mid cap stocks and sectors outside of mega cap tech.” [08:24]
  • Predicts 2025 won't see “another 18, 19% year… probably a normal year unless something terrible happens.” [08:35]

4. Evolution and Future of the “Mag 7”

• [08:48] Troy asks whether Mag 7 will consolidate or evolve.
• Caleb: Leadership will naturally shift as investor preferences change, but major companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia will dominate unless disrupted.
• He emphasizes the need for broader market strength and expects future “groups” to emerge that outpace current leaders:
  • “You’ll always have leadership but we'll have, we'll come up with a new name in the next year or two for whatever next group of stocks outperforms.” [13:46]

5. Why Walmart Isn’t Viewed Like Amazon (Yet)

• [13:55] Troy queries why Walmart doesn’t receive as much acclaim as Amazon, despite competitive stock performance.
• Caleb:
  • Notes Walmart’s recent move to list on the Nasdaq—a shift signaling it wants growth-stock recognition.
  • “They are much more than the biggest retailer in the world… they are a logistics company… a data company.” [14:39]
  • Walmart’s return is even outpacing the Nasdaq over five years, so it merits consideration alongside aggressive growers.

6. Opportunities and Sector Rotation for 2026

• [15:00] Caleb:
  • Expects continued broadening of market leadership.
  • Sees new opportunities in defensive sectors (like healthcare and biotech), mid and small cap stocks, and outside classic growth names.
  • “Mid caps… are going to benefit from lower interest rates because these companies borrow a lot of money and as rates go down... they're more profitable.” [17:21]
• Explains market caps:
  • Small cap: $5–20B
  • Mid cap: $25–200B
  • Large/mega cap: $200B to $5T and up.
  • Importance of focusing on profit margins, productivity, and AI adoption.

7. Retail Investor Trends Going into 2026

• [19:25] Troy: Inquires about retail investor search trends.
• Caleb: Notes high interest in recession, Bitcoin, and economic outlooks as readers seek guidance amid volatility.
• No specific quotes or data, but confirms ongoing appetite for education on risk and diversification.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Caleb Silver [04:00]:
  “People feel terrible about the economy right now… Consumer confidence, guys, as you know, is almost as low as it was during the great financial crisis. And we're in much better shape than we were back then. Just people feel terrible because inflation…”
• Caleb Silver [05:55]:
  “Economic growth is going to be there with lower interest rates next year… tariffs being more smoke than fire really at this point… all these things signal the fact that the economy is probably going to grow and might be actually okay.”
• Caleb Silver [07:24]:
  “A majority of stocks rallying at the same time… that's what you want to see in a healthy bull market. You want to see a lot of stocks rally… not just 10 stocks.”
• Caleb Silver [13:46]:
  “You’ll always have leadership but we'll… come up with a new name in the next year or two for whatever next group of stocks outperforms.”
• Caleb Silver [14:39]:
  “They (Walmart) are much more than the biggest retailer in the world… they are a logistics company… a data company.”
• Caleb Silver [17:21]:
  “Mid caps…are going to benefit from lower interest rates because these companies borrow a lot of money and as rates go down… they're more profitable and that's usually a benefit to shareholders.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:18] – The Jobs Report cancellation and public sentiment vs. economic reality
• [05:35] – Interest rates outlook and expected Fed moves
• [06:49] – Bull market breadth, tech sector dependence, and healthy market signals
• [08:48] – The future and reformulation of Mag 7
• [13:55] – Walmart’s stock performance, Nasdaq move, and transformation
• [15:00] – Sector rotation, new opportunities in mid/small cap, and market cap explanations
• [19:25] – Retail investor searches & guidance for 2026

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Summary Takeaway

Despite anxious headlines and pervasive negative consumer sentiment, core economic fundamentals remain stronger than they appear. Lower rates, healthy profit growth, and expanding participation beyond tech give reasons for optimism leading into 2026. The episode underscores the importance of sector rotation, looking past the biggest market names, and staying adaptable in a changing investment landscape.

For listeners:
If you want actionable insights on market leadership shifts, the real meaning behind the headlines, and where new investment opportunities may lie as we approach a new year, this is a must-listen episode.

Transcript

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[Doug]

And Doug. What a horrible call.

[Rashad]

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[Doug]

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[Rashad]

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[Rashad]

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[Troy]

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[Rashad]

Let'S talk about some other economic factors. The jobs report was canceled for the first time in American history. So what does this say? That, amongst other things. But what does it say about the state of the economy? And what's your thoughts on where we're headed in 2026? Yeah, the fact that we haven't gotten the government jobs data, that is troubling for, you know, business journalists like me on the one hand. But we're getting so much data anyway. We get great stuff from ADP every month on the private payrolls. I think that tells you a lot more than the BLS survey of households and businesses when they're literally calling tens of thousands of them on the phone and emailing and saying, are you hiring? How many people are you hiring? Are you planning to hire in the next three months? They do that in the first two weeks of every single month. So by the time you get it anyway, it's already three weeks late. And it's based on an extrapolation of all those phone calls and emails. So I never thought it was that exact. And it was getting muddier by the second, giving everything that was going on in the Labor Department with the Trump administration. So the economy, I think, is in better shape than people think and certainly than the way people feel. People feel terrible about the economy right now. Consumer confidence, guys, as you know, is almost as low as it was during the great financial crisis. And we're in much better shape than we were back then. Just people feel terrible because inflation, they feel like it's coming, even going to come even more in 2026, especially in the form of higher healthcare payments and healthcare premiums, they feel like prices have gotten out of control and nobody can control it. So they blame the government and they blame corporations for that. But in reality, if the unemployment rate really is somewhere between 4.4 and 5%, that's still relatively low right now. Wages have been increasing like 3.5 to 4%. That's decent. We are hearing about growing drumbeat about more layoffs and, you know, the AI fears about it taking people's jobs. Those are significant and just that psychology can weigh in on people. But we continue to spend because that's what we're really good at as consumers. And as long as we're doing that and you have all these, you know, multi trillion dollar companies pledging to spend tens, hundreds of billions of dollars with each other, that's driving the other part of the economy. Economic growth is going to be there. Economic growth is going to be there with lower interest rates next year. And we're going to hear that on Wednesday when the Fed comes out with its decision, which will probably lower rates by a quarter point. But it'll signal through the dot plot. It's, you know, it's, it's sort of summary of where Fed governors think interest rates should be a year from now that they're going to be probably a full percentage point lower one year from now. So this combination of lower interest rates and the economy not falling off a cliff and tariffs being more smoke than fire really at this point in time and corporate profits are, are growing, all these things signal the fact that the economy is probably going to grow and might be actually okay. Although people on the low end of things are not going to feel it and they never do. They're just going to feel worse as the investing class does even better.

[Troy]

I saw you on your skateboard today talking about the Fed dot plot. I appreciate that that content. So there was a report today over the weekend where they were Talking about the Max 7 and how it's had this amazing run and at some point the reality check is going to happen and some analysts are saying it'll happen in 2026 y those same analysts were saying that the S and P is going to have a great year next year. I find it kind of hard to figure out though how the two things are going to work right? If the Max 7, you're talking about some of the biggest companies, these big hyperscalers, they max, I think they make up 35 to 36% of the S and P. So if those don't do well, how do we see with the rest of the S picking up that, that, that lift and saying, all right, well, will carry the market from here. What are your thoughts on this?

[Rashad]

Yeah, great question. And you guys know this. Well, if you look at the S P500 versus the equal weight S P500. Remember, the S P500 is market weighted. The biggest stocks weigh the most and account for the biggest part of the index like Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, you name it. But if you just take it equal weight, it is underperforming the S&P 500 by a fair amount by about 10% this year. But what we've seen lately, guys, which is I find very interesting after that 5, 5% pullback a few weeks ago, which seems like forever ago now, the market rebounded almost, almost to where it was. We're about 1% away from all time highs. And in that rebound we saw what the technical analysis like to call breath thrusts. Sounds like a fencing term, but what it really is is a majority of stocks rallying at the same time. Right. And that's what you want to see in a healthy bull market. You want to see a lot of stocks rally, not just 10 stocks, 20 stocks rallying into, you know, to, to make the market make new highs. And that's really what it was with all these big mega cap tech stocks and AI stocks. Now you're seeing better breath and you're seeing better breath in sectors that actually matter. You're starting to see a little bit in commodities because interest rates are cooling out a little bit on the short term. You're starting to see it in healthcare, which we haven't seen in a long time. You're starting to see it in financials because lower rates are coming. That's going to be good for them in terms of their net interest margins. So you're seeing broader participation in the market and that's a healthy sign of a bull market in its fourth year. And this bull's getting a little bit tired. That said all, we're going into a midterm election year. Those are always a little volatile. But the trend is up into the right, especially with lower interest rates on the horizon. That powers small to mid cap stocks and sectors outside of mega cap tech. That's actually good news for momentum. I'm not saying we're going to get another 18, 19% year, probably will get a normal year unless something terrible happens. Do you, to follow up on Troy's.

[Troy]

Question, do you think we have a reformulation of the Mag 7? Well, do you think it'll be a consolidation into 5 or do you think they'll keep the max 7 and just.

[Rashad]

Change the, the weighting and the structure of it? I think just by the nature of investor preference it'll, it'll change. As you know, you've seen investors, especially big investors like Berkshire Hathaway and others pulling bigger stocks like Apple, but the leadership is still the leadership and the biggest stocks in the index right now, earners.

[Troy]

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[Doug]

And Doug, what a horrible call.

[Rashad]

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[Doug]

Come on.

[Rashad]

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[Troy]

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[Rashad]

So you know Mag7, I think that was Kramer who came up with that term along with Fang to come up with a name for that. It's really been, as you guys know, more like you know, a dozen stocks and you named a few that were a real part of the, the rally. The oracles of the world, the sales forces of the world, they were a big part of that rally as well. Anybody that was tied to the, to the AI buildout and has a big market cap was, was useful and helpful in bringing the market to record highs 18 times already so far this year. But you'll get a broadening out of participation. You're seeing stocks making record highs. You know, you're seeing the banks start to roll back into record highs. The J.P. morgans and Goldmans, those were dancing on record high. So when you see financials doing well and you see start start to see other sectors rallying along with it outside of tech, that's a good sign. So I, you know, you'll, you'll always have leadership but we'll have, we'll come up with a new name in the next year or two for whatever next group of stocks outperforms the rest of them.

[Troy]

Yeah, we got to figure out how to get Broadcom and TSM inside there.

[Rashad]

Yeah, Broadcom has been an outstanding stock.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

Also Walmart too.

[Troy]

Can I do A follow up real quick, Rashad. The stock is valued at what, 40 times earnings? They think the stock is up 25 this year. Why do you think Walmart doesn't get the same respect in Amazon may receive? Even though if you look going back to 2018 was priced at 28.10, it's currently at 113.56.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Troy]

Despite classification of where they land. Why do you think that they aren't put in that Mag 7 or Elite.

[Rashad]

8 type of range? Well, did you notice what just happened in the last couple of weeks? Where, where did that, what happened with Walmart? What exchange did it move to? It moved to the Nasdaq. Great point.

[Doug]

Right.

[Rashad]

It's been on the, it's been on the New York Stock Exchange forever.

[Troy]

Yeah, right.

[Rashad]

And it decided that it needed to be listed on a different exchange, the Nasdaq. Now why the Nasdaq? Right. That's where the fastest growth stocks in the world live. That's where growth stocks. That's it, that's where you list. And so it wanted to be included in those conversations. So you're not the only one that noticed it. And they noticed it themselves. They are much more than the biggest retailer in the world and they are that. But they are a logistics company. Right. They are a data company. Right. That is what they're into these days. And I was just out in Bentonville for the first time. If you guys haven't been out there, first of all we should go out there and do a market Mondays. Out there there is nothing. It is outstanding. It blew my mind being in that town. And you see the, the, the, the history of Walmart, which is really the history of America and just, just all over the place and the infrastructure that's around the Walmart super centers there. It's phenomenal. So it wants to be a tech company, it wants to be thought of as a growth company. And so it changed where it was listed and maybe it will get that respect because now you got to include it in the QQQs of the world. Right. You got to include it with growth stocks, indexes and portfolio managers that own those sectors are going to have to buy it if they don't own it already. And it's actually outperformed. I was checking this out. It's outperformed the NASDAQ over the past five years. So it definitely belongs in that exchange and maybe it'll get the respect that it deserves. What opportunities do you see in 2026? Well, I think the sector rotation is helpful and Good. We have all been piled into the same group of stocks forever and it's been great. It's been very rewarding for shareholders. Right. If you picked the 5, 10 fastest growing stocks in the market, especially in tech, especially in Internet and communications and AI, you have had an incredible run as a shareholder. No surprise that we have more 401k millionaires than any time in history. We've got all been piled into the same stocks. But when everyone's piled into that, that side of the boat, you can see what happens. We saw, you know, the Nvidias of the world, the Oracles of the world, the Microsoft, some metas. These were down beyond correction territory. They're almost down in bear market territory. So you've had a healthy valuation resizing there, which is good. But in a lot of ways they've become value stocks or safety stocks. Right. It's either gold or that. Right. And it all depends on the equity risk premium for investors right now. So I think you're going to see a rotation into a little bit more defensive but also a little bit more broadening into the healthcare sector. As I mentioned earlier, biotech finally caught a bid. And then smaller down the market value chain as you get into the mid caps and the small caps that are going to benefit from lower interest rates. There's a lot of good companies there that are doing business in a way that's not necessarily tariff sensitive, that are operating great businesses. So I watch mid caps. You can buy the mid cap ETFs if you want or you can buy the small cap ETFs to get some exposure. Explain because some people might not be familiar from your website. Can you explain the difference when you say mid cap, small cap?

[Troy]

Oh sure.

[Rashad]

Large cap. Yeah, small cap stocks. We're talking like 5 billion to 10 to 15, 20 billion in market cap.

[Doug]

Right.

[Rashad]

And market cap means the stock price times the amount of shares outstanding. The, the more shares outstanding, the bigger your stock price, the higher your market cap. Nvidia obviously the biggest of the mar of the, of the companies in the world in terms of market cap. Mid cap are more in that 25, I would say 200 billion dollar market cap range. And these are manufacturing companies, these are financial services companies. Some of these are even tech companies or working on the fringes of AI or on the fringes of of semiconductors. And they have fabulous businesses that are super profitable. And right now you want to have very strong profit margins. If you are a publicly traded company. This matters more than anything. Revenue per employee, how much productivity Are you squeezing out of your labor force? How are you using AI to do that? And how is that powering your profit margins and your profits? Because at the end of the day as investors, that's what we're paying for. Grow your profits because it's going to be reflected in your share price and in the dividends you pay back to investors. So in that mid cap range they're going to benefit from lower interest rates because these companies borrow a lot of money and as rates go down and they refinance their debt, that eases the, the stress on their balance sheets and they're more profitable and that's usually a benefit to shareholders. So I would look down the, down the chain a little bit as well. And then large cap. Did you talk about large cap? Yeah, Large cap are the biggest companies in the world. The 200 billion to now 5 trillion mega cap. Oh mega. Those are mega caps. Those are the 1 trillion to 5 trillion large cap would be the 200 billion to $1 trillion in market cap now. But you know those ranges have expanded over time because we live in the land of the giants.

[Troy]

You had to update investcoped. We didn't have a trillion dollar company until like recently.

[Rashad]

You're right. I gotta get, I'll get right on that.

[Troy]

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[Rashad]

All.

[Troy]

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[Doug]

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[Doug]

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