Earn Your Leisure – Will the Bull Market Continue? Economic Outlook for 2026 with Caleb Silver

Podcast: Earn Your Leisure
Hosts: Rashad Bilal & Troy Millings
Guest: Caleb Silver (Editor-in-Chief, Investopedia)
Date: December 14, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode centers around the current state and the future outlook of the U.S. economy and stock market, particularly as we move toward 2026. With insights from Caleb Silver, the discussion addresses mounting uncertainties—from a historic government jobs report cancellation to investor anxiety over inflation and potential market corrections. The hosts and guest break down whether the ongoing bull market can sustain itself, how sector rotations and mega-cap stocks drive returns, and what trends retail investors should be watching.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Significance of the Jobs Report Cancellation

• [03:18] Rashad opens on the unprecedented cancellation of the government jobs report and its implications.
• Caleb Silver responds by contextualizing the loss:
  • While troubling for business journalists, private payroll data (e.g., ADP) now offers richer and timelier insights than government surveys.
  • He emphasizes, “People feel terrible about the economy right now… Consumer confidence… is almost as low as it was during the great financial crisis. And we're in much better shape than we were back then.” [04:00]
  • Despite pessimism, tangible economic indicators like low unemployment (4.4–5%) and steady wage growth (3.5–4%) suggest a healthier environment than public sentiment reflects.
  • Inflation fears loom, particularly about healthcare costs, but Silver argues corporate profits and ongoing spending remain strong drivers.

2. Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Outlook

• [05:35] Caleb Silver: Predicts upcoming lower interest rates, saying, “The Fed… will probably lower rates by a quarter point… signal… a full percentage point lower one year from now.” Lower rates are expected to boost economic growth and equities.
• He describes how persistent consumer spending and multitrillion-dollar corporate investments continue to underpin the economy.
• Quote: “Economic growth is going to be there with lower interest rates next year… tariffs being more smoke than fire really at this point.” [05:55]

3. The Bull Market—Breadth Beyond Big Tech

• [06:49] Rashad asks how the market can sustain itself if “Mag 7” (mega-cap tech stocks) lose momentum, given their dominance.
• Caleb Silver:
  • Explains S&P 500’s market weighting and how the equal-weighted index has lagged behind (“about 10% this year”).
  • Notes a recent positive sign: “a majority of stocks rallying at the same time… that's what you want to see in a healthy bull market.” [07:24]
  • Broader participation is showing up in commodities, healthcare, and financials—not just tech.
  • Quote: “The trend is up into the right, especially with lower interest rates on the horizon. That powers small to mid cap stocks and sectors outside of mega cap tech.” [08:24]
  • Predicts 2025 won't see “another 18, 19% year… probably a normal year unless something terrible happens.” [08:35]

4. Evolution and Future of the “Mag 7”

• [08:48] Troy asks whether Mag 7 will consolidate or evolve.
• Caleb: Leadership will naturally shift as investor preferences change, but major companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia will dominate unless disrupted.
• He emphasizes the need for broader market strength and expects future “groups” to emerge that outpace current leaders:
  • “You’ll always have leadership but we'll have, we'll come up with a new name in the next year or two for whatever next group of stocks outperforms.” [13:46]

5. Why Walmart Isn’t Viewed Like Amazon (Yet)

• [13:55] Troy queries why Walmart doesn’t receive as much acclaim as Amazon, despite competitive stock performance.
• Caleb:
  • Notes Walmart’s recent move to list on the Nasdaq—a shift signaling it wants growth-stock recognition.
  • “They are much more than the biggest retailer in the world… they are a logistics company… a data company.” [14:39]
  • Walmart’s return is even outpacing the Nasdaq over five years, so it merits consideration alongside aggressive growers.

6. Opportunities and Sector Rotation for 2026

• [15:00] Caleb:
  • Expects continued broadening of market leadership.
  • Sees new opportunities in defensive sectors (like healthcare and biotech), mid and small cap stocks, and outside classic growth names.
  • “Mid caps… are going to benefit from lower interest rates because these companies borrow a lot of money and as rates go down... they're more profitable.” [17:21]
• Explains market caps:
  • Small cap: $5–20B
  • Mid cap: $25–200B
  • Large/mega cap: $200B to $5T and up.
  • Importance of focusing on profit margins, productivity, and AI adoption.

7. Retail Investor Trends Going into 2026

• [19:25] Troy: Inquires about retail investor search trends.
• Caleb: Notes high interest in recession, Bitcoin, and economic outlooks as readers seek guidance amid volatility.
• No specific quotes or data, but confirms ongoing appetite for education on risk and diversification.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Caleb Silver [04:00]:
  “People feel terrible about the economy right now… Consumer confidence, guys, as you know, is almost as low as it was during the great financial crisis. And we're in much better shape than we were back then. Just people feel terrible because inflation…”
• Caleb Silver [05:55]:
  “Economic growth is going to be there with lower interest rates next year… tariffs being more smoke than fire really at this point… all these things signal the fact that the economy is probably going to grow and might be actually okay.”
• Caleb Silver [07:24]:
  “A majority of stocks rallying at the same time… that's what you want to see in a healthy bull market. You want to see a lot of stocks rally… not just 10 stocks.”
• Caleb Silver [13:46]:
  “You’ll always have leadership but we'll… come up with a new name in the next year or two for whatever next group of stocks outperforms.”
• Caleb Silver [14:39]:
  “They (Walmart) are much more than the biggest retailer in the world… they are a logistics company… a data company.”
• Caleb Silver [17:21]:
  “Mid caps…are going to benefit from lower interest rates because these companies borrow a lot of money and as rates go down… they're more profitable and that's usually a benefit to shareholders.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:18] – The Jobs Report cancellation and public sentiment vs. economic reality
• [05:35] – Interest rates outlook and expected Fed moves
• [06:49] – Bull market breadth, tech sector dependence, and healthy market signals
• [08:48] – The future and reformulation of Mag 7
• [13:55] – Walmart’s stock performance, Nasdaq move, and transformation
• [15:00] – Sector rotation, new opportunities in mid/small cap, and market cap explanations
• [19:25] – Retail investor searches & guidance for 2026

Summary Takeaway

Despite anxious headlines and pervasive negative consumer sentiment, core economic fundamentals remain stronger than they appear. Lower rates, healthy profit growth, and expanding participation beyond tech give reasons for optimism leading into 2026. The episode underscores the importance of sector rotation, looking past the biggest market names, and staying adaptable in a changing investment landscape.

For listeners:
If you want actionable insights on market leadership shifts, the real meaning behind the headlines, and where new investment opportunities may lie as we approach a new year, this is a must-listen episode.