Most brands forecast from gut feel and ROAS. CTC runs on four interlocked proprietary models that produce a daily P&L forecast with 3.1% accuracy across more than $3 billion in GMV. In Part 2 of the Canon series, Luke Austin breaks down each model, how they connect, and what a Profit Engineer actually does with them

Topics covered:

Why a single ROAS number can't run a business
The Spending Power Model — ACoNS curves and what spending power actually tells you
The Retention Model — forecasting returning revenue cohort by cohort
The Event Effect Model — how to get daily precision without breaking monthly targets
The Creative Demand Model (teased — full breakdown in the creative strategy episode)
How these four models wire together into a connected forecast system
What R-squared below 0.6 signals about your retention data
The three optimization points every brand should know: max CM, max revenue, max LTV CM

Key stat: 3.1% forecast accuracy across $3B+ in GMV managed — producing 30%+ revenue growth and 40%+ contribution margin growth.

Show Notes:

Go to https://bit.ly/4aiEz79 to start your free migration with Omnisend today
Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have