To kick off Season 4, we reflect on our personal and professional journeys over the past year. We discuss the challenge of sticking to goals like healthier living and academic productivity, sharing what worked and what didn’t. Along the way, we talk about prediction markets, resolutions, teaching in the age of AI, and how faculty think about setting goals under uncertainty.

In this episode, we discuss:

* What prediction markets say about the probability of a recession, and why those forecasts matter.

* How our goals from 2025 held up and what changes are coming in 2026

* What academic publishing really looks like (and why it’s so frustrating)

* Reflections on teaching wins and evolving classroom strategies

* Making professional trade-offs between teaching and research

* And a whole lot more!

Catch up on some old episodes:

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Some show notes:

Season 4 kicks off with a reflection on 2025, both personally and professionally. Jadrian is celebrating the New Year with a Shiner Premium lager while Matt is getting an early start on Dry January with a Diet Coke. We’ll revisit our goals from the previous year throughout the episode, but let’s state upfront that we didn’t move the needle much on weight loss. Perhaps we’ll enter 2026 with renewed motivation and a more intentional focus on fitness, finances, and structure.

We kicked off our data point analysis with a look at how prediction markets are showing a 27% chance of a U.S. recession before 2027 and how that number has changed throughout the year. Unlike surveys, prediction markets are different because they impose real costs for being wrong. From there, we turn to New Year’s resolutions. Americans under the age of 45 are twice as likely as older Americans to say they’ll make one, which naturally leads us into a broader reflection on goals, incentives, and realism.

Academically, Jadrian is happy with his newsletter's growth (nearing 10,000 subscribers), media interviews (including Marketplace, NPR, and the New York Times), and record-setting course evaluations. Meanwhile, Matt was on sabbatical last Spring and was able to wrap up several research projects, including a policy-relevant experimental economics study and a Broadway-focused data paper.

We close the episode by looking forward. For Jadrian, that means being open to new opportunities with teaching and writing. For Matt, it means focusing on the things only a dean can do, especially expanding international internship opportunities for students and continuing to think carefully about teaching and learning in an AI-heavy environment.

As with most economic decisions, the theme of the episode is familiar: maximize what matters, subject to limited time, imperfect information, and a lot of uncertainty.

This week’s pop culture references:

One of the best parts of teaching is when students start spotting economics outside of the classroom. Jadrian often brings pop culture into his classroom, but it had been a few semesters since a student brought something back to him. That changed this past semester when a student told him she was binge-watching Psych and caught a reference to game theory.

Matt taught game theory for the first time in a while and assigned a project where students applied the concepts to something they’re passionate about. With permission, he’s turned a few of those projects into presentations for a broader audience. In this episode, he shared one where a student analyzed the popular game Clash Royale and explained how mixed strategies can help in high-pressure scenarios.

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