Effectively Wild Episode 2359: "I Am Familiar With Winning"

Original Air Date: August 9, 2025
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (A), Meg Rowley (B)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Ben and Meg dive deep into the changing landscape of baseball luminary Mike Trout's career, using his gradual decline as a springboard for a wide-ranging discussion on player aging, evaluating baseball greatness, and the emotional dimensions of fandom. They also celebrate the emergence of pitching phenom Paul Skenes, analyze the economics and efficacy of pre-arbitration contract extensions in MLB, and close with personal advice for fans feeling jaded by their teams. Finally, listeners are introduced to two first-time big leaguers in the “Meet a Major Leaguer” segment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mike Trout: The Boring Great?

[00:39–18:42]

• The surprising “boringness” of Mike Trout:

  • Ben admits: "It pains me deeply to say this, but I must admit that Mike Trout has become boring." ([00:39])
  • Despite returning from injury and playing regularly for the Angels, Trout's game lacks the previous spark—he’s “just there, chugging along, doing okay.”

• Aging and baseball ‘old’:

  • 34 is now considered a distinct threshold: "34 is the first baseball age that feels old to me." ([02:25])
  • Meg expands: At 34, fans become anxious about stretches of poor play being a sign of true decline, rather than just a slump ([02:46]).

• Decline in all-around excellence:

  • Once a dominant all-tools player, Trout now leads in "three true outcomes" rate (walks, strikeouts, home runs) but less on-base dynamism: “He’s stolen two this year, and he probably shouldn’t.” ([07:08])
  • Statcast metrics reflect decline: Sprint speed dropped from 90th-plus percentile to 67th ([07:27]).
  • No longer a center fielder, now a “below average right fielder.”

• Reflections on Trout’s legacy and what’s remembered:

  • Meg draws a parallel to Ken Griffey Jr.: "When the time came for him to, you know, be feted in Cooperstown, nobody cared about that part of it [the decline]." ([14:29])
  • More lament for Trout's “Angels purgatory” than his decline in skill.

• Trout’s loyalty to Angels—and its complexities:

  • Meg: "Mike Trout also made proactive decisions to stay in Anaheim… He wanted to stay there for reasons some of which I find admirable and some of which I find kind of confounding." ([16:43])
  • Remaining years and dollars make any future trade unlikely ([18:04]).

• Redefining "wasting" a superstar:

  • Ben: "There is a great value in having… a guy like that who is maybe a career Angel. …Maybe we could put it in terms of like failing to capitalize on that situation or something, as opposed to wasting it." ([19:51])

2. Player Value & Surplus:

[20:41–23:25]

• Even with injuries and decline, Trout’s career—by WAR/$ Free Agent Value—significantly exceeds what he’s paid: "Over the course of his career with the Angels, he's still going to be on the right side of like a surplus value calculation," Meg notes ([20:38]).

3. Colorful Baseball: Hair and Uniform Aesthetics

[23:25–27:51]

• A light-hearted digression: Does Dustin May (a redhead) now have the worst hair-to-uniform clash in MLB after his trade to Boston?
  • Meg ponders Andy Dalton’s Bengals tenure as the all-time “bad match.”
  • Ben and Meg riff on the aesthetic mismatch: "Red hair isn't really red. It's more orange." ([25:15])
  • Conclude: Not May’s fault or Boston’s—just a quirky style mismatch.

4. Paul Skenes: The New Ace Metronome

[28:04–36:50]

• Nearly identical dominance in two MLB seasons:
  • Ben marvels: “He has almost identical stats through this point in the season compared to his final stats from his rookie year…” ([28:19])
  • Slight dip in strikeout rate and velocity (intentionally dialing it back), but results remain elite.
  • “From the day he arrived, maybe the best pitcher in baseball,” second only to Tarik Skubal in Fangraphs WAR since debut ([30:00]).
• Sustained excellence, overlooked by his team's lack of support:
  • Wins and losses becoming obsolete; Skenes’ losing record doesn’t reflect his dominance ([33:56]).
  • Meg suggests: "When he comes out of the game, you just turn it off and you never, you just never see him lose." ([35:03])
• Personality and pop culture quirks:
  • Hosts note the overlap between Skenes and Trout—both have famously “mundane” but wholesome off-field interests, e.g., weather and groundskeeping ([38:43]).
  • Meg admires Skenes's contemplative, unflashy style.

5. Pre-Arb Extensions, the Risk/Reward Equation, & Market Shifts

[40:13–53:02]

• Neil Payne’s research on extension trends:

  • Ben reviews a Neil Payne Substack post, noting the rarity of high-value pre-arb pitching extensions (only Spencer Strider as an exception) ([41:35]).
  • Top pre-arb deals almost entirely for hitters; teams are still much more risk-averse with pitchers.
  • Surplus value on these deals is decreasing as more players and agents recognize their value—less “one weird trick” than before.

• Red Sox leading the way:

  • Multiple recent extensions: Roman Anthony, Bryan Bello, and Ceddanne Rafaela differentiate Boston from more static teams like the Orioles ([48:59]).
  • Building a stable, cost-controlled core allows for better long-range planning and can foster goodwill with fans: "It does put you in a good position...you have all of this payroll certainty." ([53:02])

6. Listener Email: On Outgrowing Your Team Fandom

[57:18–73:27]

• A fan asks:
  • Tommy, a Cleveland (Guardians) fan, wonders about stepping back from “monogamous fandom” due to disappointment in team stewardship ([57:18]).
• Hosts’ perspective on baseball polyamory:
  • Meg: "It has been just such a joy to broaden my view…The playoffs suck when it's your team...when it's your guys out there...you feel unwell." ([59:09–63:39])
  • Ben: "It's definitely more even keeled without that [team focus]...All just sort of flattened because you don't get as high highs really, either." ([64:06])
  • Both encourage a trial separation—not abandoning your team, but letting yourself enjoy the sport as a whole.
• Practical advice:
  • Try MLB's Big Inning whiparound show for exposure to many teams ([68:41]).
  • Consider picking a fun secondary team in the opposite league.
  • There's no wrong answer: “If you decide, hey, actually…I like the Tigers a lot. That’s fine. That’s within your rights as an American.” ([70:21])

7. Meet a Major Leaguer: Josh Simpson (Marlins) & Dugan Darnell (Rockies)

[73:29–101:06]

Josh Simpson (Marlins)

• 27-year-old LHP reliever; 32nd round pick out of Columbia University, making him one of very few Ivy Leaguers in MLB ([74:48]).
• Reached majors after being a “phantom” call-up in 2023, followed by health setbacks and eventual debut in 2025.
• Reliever ERA rollercoaster, but underlying Statcast stats suggest improvement possible.
• Fun facts: One of a handful of Ivy Leaguers in MLB; draft-era Ivy Leaguer leaderboard compared (Dartmouth the surprising winner).

Dugan Darnell (Rockies)

• 28-year-old RHP reliever; undrafted out of D3 Adrian College ([88:53]).
• Was a shortstop in high school, only became a pitcher late in college.
• Spent time in multiple indie leagues while working as a mortgage loan officer before sending videos of himself to MLB front offices.
• Rockies signed him off video—a rare occurrence.
• Recorded improbable first MLB win in a wild 16-18 game.
• Darnell: “It felt like a movie. It’s been crazy, but… I wouldn’t change a thing.” ([97:24])
• Meg: "He was dejected and asked why [the Rockies wouldn't scout him in person] and he said it was because they didn’t want to scout him, because instead they wanted to sign him." ([94:44])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On aging and fandom:

  • Ben: "I met Mike Trout in a sports sense from afar when he was a teenager. He came up when he was 19...he has fallen far from that now." ([05:27])
  • Meg, on "wasting" Mike Trout: "There's a great value in having…maybe a career Angel...Not too many people have that sort of joy." ([19:51])
  • Meg, on the intensity of the postseason as a fan: "The playoffs are so fun and they super suck if your team's in it... you feel unwell, Ben." ([62:39])

• On Trout and Skenes as kindred spirits:

  • Ben: "They do have a similarity just in how delightfully mundane their interests are also. Just like Trout with weather, Skenes with groundskeeping." ([38:43])

• On fan polyfandom:

  • Meg: "You're making more love. Yeah. You're making room in your heart for more love. And wouldn't we all benefit from doing that?" ([73:20])

Timestamps by Segment

• [00:39] Mike Trout's present day status, age, and decline
• [07:27] Declining speed & defense
• [14:29] Comparing to Ken Griffey Jr. legacy
• [16:43] Trout's loyalty/stay with the Angels
• [19:51] Rethinking “wasted” talent
• [20:41] Surplus value of Trout’s career
• [23:25] Dustin May’s hair and Red Sox aesthetics
• [28:04] Paul Skenes' statistical repeat, adaptation, and Pirates' urgency
• [32:22] Skenes and the feasibility of pre-arb extensions for pitchers
• [40:13] Neil Payne's research on pre-arb contract extensions
• [48:59] Red Sox extensions and team-building
• [57:18] Listener email: managing or moving on from fandom
• [73:29] "Meet a Major Leaguer": Josh Simpson & Dugan Darnell

Tone & Style

Easygoing, stat-savvy, sometimes self-deprecating—Ben and Meg strike a balance between technical analytics, informed fan empathy, and witty banter. Pop culture analogies, musical metaphors, and candid self-reflection pepper the conversation, making even deep-dive analysis breezy and accessible.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In:

This episode is a quintessential slice of what makes Effectively Wild beloved: a mixture of intelligent statistical analysis, personal baseball reminiscences, the joys and heartbreaks of fandom, and the celebration of both superstars and fringe major leaguers. Whether you miss Mike Trout's peak, want to make sense of Paul Skenes' rise, ponder rooting philosophies, or just love a good indie ball underdog story, this installment delivers.