Effectively Wild Episode 2360: "Generous Tipper"

Podcast by FanGraphs — Hosts: Meg Rowley and Ben Lindbergh
Date: August 13, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Meg and Ben offer their signature mix of statistical analysis and wry banter on the state of MLB in mid-August 2025. They discuss the cooling-off of early-season WAR leaderboards, scrutinize recent high-profile managerial comments, navigate league-wide trends (hot streaks/cold snaps, prospect debuts, and losing streaks), and end with a dive into pitch-tipping discourse. Notably, the episode features segments on Shohei Ohtani's performance and public criticism, veteran pitcher milestones and self-perception, the Brewers' hot run and alumni home run derby, surprise base-stealing exploits, and a skeptical take on the importance of pitch-tipping.

Key Discussion Points

1. WAR Leaderboard Regression & Slumping Stars

[00:32–04:47]

• Ben laments how the WAR leaderboard "progression has set in," narrowing early-season gaps as players confront slumps, injuries, and fatigue.
  • Aaron Judge’s WRC+ down to 199 after a tough return — “basically an embarrassment… he does not have an extra-base hit, semi concerning.” — Ben ([00:32])
  • Cal Raleigh and Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) also cooling off; possible fatigue and pitchers adjusting to their aggressive approaches.
  • Shohei Ohtani maintains dominance: “a 274 WRC+ in August, plus the pitching… bolstering what is probably for some a predictable boring MVP case.” ([04:47])

Memorable quote:

“It looks like they’re going to just have to settle for merely excellent, extremely valuable, remarkable seasons—and perhaps not the greatest of all time.” — Ben ([02:37])

2. Ohtani Watch & Dodgers’ Ongoing Drama

[05:16–13:22]

• Playful reflection on how often they mention Ohtani.
• Dodgers manager Dave Roberts publicly criticizes Ohtani for a costly strikeout and a questionable baserunning decision in a loss to the Blue Jays.
  • “The last thing I was thinking was he was going to strike out…Chasing the ball down below is something we can’t have happen.” — Dave Roberts, via Ben ([09:51])
  • Roberts on Ohtani’s baserunning: “That was his decision. Not a good baseball play.” ([10:03])
• Discussion of the clubhouse impact when a superstar is publicly criticized.
• Dodgers rotation’s return to health, including hopes for Roki Sasaki.

Memorable exchange:

“Maybe even Shohei Ohtani needs a rebuke from his keeper every now and then.” — Ben ([11:19])
“If you’re a non-Ohtani Dodger, feeling some amount of relief or gratification at the notion that [everyone’s accountable].” — Meg ([11:38])

3. Veteran Starters: Kershaw, Scherzer & Verlander's Self-Assessment

[15:23–27:16]

• The recent Kershaw vs. Scherzer matchup highlighted how closely their careers have paralleled.
  • “On Baseball Reference, they are each other’s second most similar player…Pedro [Martínez] is actually the most similar.” — Ben ([16:26])
• Justin Verlander’s quest for lost velocity and results:
  • He maintains his “stuff” is as good as when he won the Cy Young in 2022, but Ben and Meg question the data and psychological aspects (“selective memory”).
  • “I guess we all just tell ourselves these sweet nothings and fictions…to assuage our concerns.” — Ben ([22:32])

4. Rookie Sensations: Luke Keaschall, Warming Bernabel, and Prospect Hype

[28:04–36:37]

• Twins rookie Luke Keaschall is compared to Mike Trout after a red-hot start — fun with “optistats.”
  • “Mike Trout in 2012. So second coming of Mike Trout: Luke Keaschall.” — Ben ([31:49])
• Rockies’ Warming Bernabel also started hot but has cooled dramatically—delighting hosts with his name as much as his play.
  • “He is some sort of dashing wizarding sorts…magic adjacent.” — Meg ([35:11])
• Reflection on the modern prospect experience: hot starts are less likely to fool fans thanks to prospect lists and available data.

5. Losing Streaks & The Rockies' Historic Futility

[38:34–40:27]

• The Rockies are chasing new lows with a prolonged losing streak, recalling recent A’s and White Sox hopeless seasons.
  • “I think if we go a fourth season in a row with some team truly challenging the worst teams of all time, then…maybe that will have jumped the shark.” — Ben ([39:36])

6. Mariners vs. Astros, Correa’s Instant Impact, & AL West Race

[40:27–46:17]

• Carlos Correa, immediately hot in his Houston return, triggers Mariners’ fan angst — but Meg emphasizes the Mariners’ “good vibes” and reminds fans that to win the AL West, they must "slay the dragon."
  • “The next thing is to win the division. It’s been a very long time…at some point, they gotta slay the dragon.” — Meg ([44:17])
• Ben picks the Mariners as "the better team now" despite the odds.

7. The Brewers: Model Franchise, Pocket Pancakes, and Alumni HR Derbies

[49:44–62:50]

• Milwaukee’s hot streak (10+ wins), deep pitching, and player development lauded.
  • “They have taken the crown of…Milwaukee’s the model organization. They’re what every other organization aspires to be.” — Ben ([53:02])
• Brewers’ innovative fan giveaways (pocket pancakes) and a widely praised alumni home run derby (won by Keon Broxton).
  • “Perhaps people are less adept at assessing their own limitations as they age than I’m necessarily assuming.” — Meg ([58:03])
  • “Alumni Home Run Derby—will this kickstart alumni home run derbies everywhere?” — Ben ([57:00])
• Meg and Ben debate the optimal frequency and structure for such nostalgic events.

8. Josh Naylor: Surprise Stolen Base Machine

[62:56–67:45]

• Mariners’ new acquisition Josh Naylor suddenly swiping bases at an unprecedented rate, despite lacking speed.
  • “He has a third percentile sprint speed. It’s not even sneaky fast. It’s just sneaky.” — Ben ([64:14])
• Praise for crafty base-stealing and the mental/strategic component (“old guy who picks his spots”).

9. Pitch Tipping: Skepticism & Technological Surveillance

[69:18–84:14]

• Padres pitcher Robert Suarez possibly tipping pitches; skepticism on the real impact of tipping.
  • “We’re in a society where no one can hide…machines are evaluating and overlaying…using artificial intelligence…” — Mike Shildt (via Ben, [79:50])
• Meg and Ben’s consensus: Pitch tipping is real but generally overrated; execution usually matters more than any “tell” a pitcher might give.
  • “Even if it’s slightly there, it’s really hard to pick up in live competition.” — Ben ([80:14])
  • “Hot air. I think that people like anything that reads as, like, spycraft… but I don’t know about that.” — Meg ([83:55])

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Measured of the man. That’s me.” — Ben ([03:32])
• “If he thr a 92 mile an hour fastball right down the middle and it gets hit for a home run… more like Mason foolhardy.” — Meg on Mason Fluharty’s name ([07:42])
• “I’m a simple man. I enjoy a rookie sensation. And when a rookie comes up and sets the world on fire for a week or two, well, you never know.” — Ben ([31:49])
• “As Warming Bernabel goes, so go the Rockies, I suppose.” — Ben ([38:34])
• “You gotta slay the dragon, Seattle. You know, like, you gotta do it.” — Meg ([44:17])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:32] — Discussion of leaderboard regression and major slumps
• [06:03] — Dave Roberts on Ohtani’s miscues
• [15:23] — Kershaw vs. Scherzer, career similarities, Verlander musings
• [28:04] — Prospect performances: Keaschall and Bernabel
• [38:34] — Rockies’ losing streak and historic futility
• [40:27] — Astros’ Correa boost, Mariners’ playoff chase
• [49:44] — Brewers: model franchise, pocket pancakes, HR derby
• [62:56] — Josh Naylor’s base-stealing binge
• [69:18] — Padres, pitch tipping, and the myth vs. reality debate

Tone & Style

As always, Meg and Ben maintain an engaging, thoughtful, and whimsical tone—with careful baseball analysis, inside jokes (“pocket pancakes,” alumni derbies), and a spirit of measured (sometimes self-deprecating) realism. They weigh the narratives that capture fans’ imaginations against the realities of data and day-to-day gameplay. The episode’s title is a tongue-in-cheek reference to pitch tipping, which is discussed with their trademark skepticism and nuance.

Useful for Listeners Seeking

• Season state-of-play: WAR races, division outlooks, and team trajectories
• The latest on iconic players (Ohtani, Kershaw, Verlander, Judge)
• Rookies generating buzz (Keaschall, Bernabel)
• Analytics-backed, balanced opinions and in-depth stat talk
• Fun with baseball names and nostalgia
• A critical lens on baseball narratives (slumps, pitch tipping, team-building)

Summary prepared for listeners seeking a comprehensive, context-rich recap of Effectively Wild Episode 2360.