
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a few of this year’s WAR leaders dropping off their previous paces, Dave Roberts’ critiques of Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers’ playoff pitching, Clayton Kershaw vs. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander’s self-deception,
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Effectively Wild. Effectively Wild. Effectively Wild. Effectively Wild.
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Hello and welcome to episode 2360 of Effectively Wild, a FanGraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley of fangraphs and I am joined by Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer. Ben, hi, how are you?
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No, I'm a bit bummed that progression has set in on the WAR leaderboard. Ah, there's always a point in the season when I realize that the players who were on pace for some super extraordinary full season stats are probably not going to get there. And this is about that time. Several slumps that we've seen recently. So Aaron Judge, his WRC plus has dwindled all the way to 199. Basically an embarrassment. Yeah, he has not hit well in his return for the Yankees as a DH thus far. 73 WRC plus. It's just 6 games but he does not have an extra base hit semi concerning. And so he's now at seven war which feels like well lower than he used to be. So that number has been going down, not up. Then you have of course Cal, who has pulled within half a fan, graphs win above replacement of Judge. But he had gone quite cold until recently. Yeah, and now the bat has been rekindled and he has been hitting some bombs again. But for a while there, July was pretty so so. And August, even with the recent home run barrage, August has not been kind to him on the whole. So yeah, perhaps some fatigue setting in there, who knows. But his pace has slowed as well. And then PCA Pete Karmstrong, he has entered a cold snap of his own and some of the offensive correction that some forecasted could be coming just based on his aggressiveness, lack of plate discipline lately it has stopped working as well. Yeah, reminded of the Wile E. Coyote image of how you're just sort of sailing out into space and, and as long as you don't look down, that's okay, you can keep flying, but then you look down and you plummet into the ravine. So not saying that Pete Armstrong is Wile E. Coyote or that he's plummeting, but lately at least he has been. So there are obviously people who have played well of late, but the leaders for most of the season to this point who were at one point on pace for just record breaking seasons, I guess everyone's, I mean there's always someone on pace for a record breaking season early enough in the schedule. But yeah, it looks like they're, they're going to just have to Settle for merely excellent, extremely valuable, remarkable seasons and perhaps not the greatest of all time.
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Yeah, I don't think that the takeaway should be like washed, you know, if I'm going to, you know. And I don't suggest that that is your takeaway. Your takeaways are always so insightful, nuanced, allow for, you know, the ebb and yeah, measured. We try to be measured. They allow for the ebb and flow of the season.
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Measured of the man. That's me.
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Measured of the man. I like that. I like that quite a bit. But this is what's gonna happen. It's gonna happen with Cal and Judge. You're gonna get some amount of obviously either injury or fatigue perhaps impacting their performance. And when you're, when you're a big boom guy, you know, when so much of your production is tied up in the boom, if you don't boom for a while, like you might see a little ebb there. And then PCA is just I think always to stretches where he isn't producing as well as he is capable of because there's just like so much chase. There's just like so very much chase in his game. And sometimes like that works out fine, but other times you go, oh buddy, you're not, you're not getting to those the way you might want to. So it'll be okay. But also I'm sure that they're hoping that things turn around sooner rather than later because they all find themselves being a load bearing part of teams that either either are aspiring to overtake divisional foes or really in need of arresting a drop in the, in the Yankees case. So gotta, gotta get to it, brothers. But I imagine that they will at least at some point here.
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Now Shohei has been fine of late. He has a 274 WRC plus in August, plus the pitching. So I suppose he is bolstering what is probably for some a predictable boring MVP case. But yeah, looked for a while like PCA might make that close or even overtake him and still could potentially, but still good. Ohtani has opened up at least a sliver of daylight on the fan graphs. War leaderboard, for what that's worth.
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Have you felt neglectful lately? Have you felt like you have not been doing your part to. To say enough about Ohtani? I hope you don't feel like I've been discouraging you from talking about Ohtan, but.
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No, not at all.
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You, you've been, you've been awfully quiet on the Ohtani front. Are you okay? Ben? You okay?
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Yeah, in a relative sense, by my standards. I guess we'd have to get effectively wild wiki keeper and transcriber Raymond Chen to run the numbers on our frequency of invoking Ohtani, as he has done in the past. But yeah, by effectively wild standards. Ohtani mentions have been fairly few and far between of late, but he's been doing his thing. I've been tuning in and enjoying it, as always.
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Yep. Chugging along.
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I did notice some pointed comments that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts had for Ohtani the other day. Actually, I was, I was somewhat surprised actually, how, how plainly and frankly he spoke about this because the, the headline, this was after a tough loss for the Dodgers against the Blue Jays. Blue Jays keep winning. Dodgers not so much of late.
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Yeah.
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And this was on Sunday. And the Dodgers just sort of squandered one. They had a ton of base runners, they loaded the bases on walks, and Blue Jays, I think, walked 13 Dodgers and Blue Jays struck out 14 times and the Dodgers had 10 hits. And yet somehow they just sort of stranded everyone and, and lost five to four. And they can't really afford losses at this point because as we speak here on Tuesday afternoon, they are just one game ahead of the San Diego Padres in the NL West. Yeah, that would be more compelling if there weren't many wild cards to play with. But nonetheless, frittering away a division lead would. Would still be a significant blow to that team. So the Dodgers were frustrated. Dave Roberts was frustrated. He said, this is frustrating because I just felt there's no way we should lose this game today. We had them on the ropes numerous times and for us not to win is so frustrating. So again, making it clear he's frustrated. And he took some of that frustration out on Ohtani, seemingly because Ohtani was up in a big spot. And then Mason Fluharty came in. The Blue Jays eighth pitcher of the day.
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Just a delightful name, the most incredible name. And I want, I want you to continue, but I want you to know it's also very versatile name. Right. Like, we worry, we worry so much about guys who have names that seem to suggest a negative outcome for their particular role on a baseball team. Right. Like, you know, James Outman. He's flirting with disaster every time he steps up to the plate because of his name. And, and we, you know, the, the chases and is. It can be. Can be kind of perilous. Fluharty offers satisfaction to both camps though, right? Because like, if he, you know, if he thr a 92 mile an hour fastball Right down the middle and then it gets hit for a home run. Well then it's like more like Mason foolhardy. Right. With that pitch. But then, but then if, if you have what happened with Ohtani where he just swung through one then, then, then Ohtani is the one who is foolhardy. It's perfect.
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It's a great works on, on many levels because it does sort of sound like foolhardy and I guess it's more hearty than hearty. Even though it's T at the end.
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Yeah.
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And so it works on that level. But then also it sort of sounds like through hard. So if he throws hardy.
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Yeah, yeah.
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But also, but also like flew hard, like if someone hits a home run off of him, then these are all good. It really is versatile.
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It's so versatile. And so it's terrific. And now you might argue, you might be saying, well Meg, you know James Outman, he also plays the field and so he can, he can have some two way application to his name also. Right. Where it's like he can catch a ball and then the guy is out, man. So you know, there's, there's room to maneuver to play here. But I just think it's delightful. So anyway, please continue about Shohei Ohtani.
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Yeah, well, Ohtani was up and it was bases loaded and Toronto has, I think Jeff Hoffman was in with one out and Ohtani was up and then I guess Fluhardy came in and. And Hoffman had loaded the bases.
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I think that's right.
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Ohtani fouled a couple pitches off and then he chased a sweeper and struck out. And Robert said after the game, the last thing I was thinking was he was going to strike out. We've gotta come up with one right there. Chasing the ball down below is something we can't have happen. And then he had another comment about Ohtani because Ohtani earlier in the game had been thrown out trying to steal third with two outs and Freddie Freeman up. So you know, the last out at third. Right. And that ended that possible threat. And Robert said that was his decision. Not a good baseball play which is, you know, almost Ron Washington esque. I mean it's not wrong. It's, it's undeserved. That is the, the prototypical situation where if you go, you've got to make it or you are going to come in for some criticism. But yeah, I don't know. Ohtani is such a golden boy and he has been playing well. In fact, he had two hits and his 41st homer in that very Game right. Had extended his hitting streak. So he. He did more to contribute to the win than a lot of Dodgers did, but I guess also did some stuff to contribute to the loss. So I respected it in a way because, you know, maybe even Shohei Otani needs a rebuke from his keeper every now and then, and it seems like they have a. A good relationship and you don. Want to go easy on the superstar when he makes a mistake and have sort of double standard, though. There's always a double standard. There's especially a double standard for SH Otani who gets the rules rewritten for him. But nonetheless, yeah, he didn't couch that. He didn't really pull his punches there. And I was semi surprised, but also thought that it perhaps reflected well on Roberts or just reflected his frustration that he would speak so plainly.
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Yeah, it's hard to know exactly what I think of that because I agree with you. I think it's important. When you're a manager, I imagine you're conscious of the fact that the statements you issue in public about any one of your players, the other players are paying attention to that and seeing how you talk about your guys, it has to play not only to that guy, but to some degree, it needs to play to the entire clubhouse. And so I can imagine if you're a non Ohtani Dodger, feeling some amount of relief or gratification at the notion that, okay, we're all in this together and sure, like, he's so important to this roster and his contract is so strange and he's set to make all this money, but, like, he has to be held accountable, too, and that's good. But also, if you're the Dodger, you might say, well, Skip, you got to be able to, like, slow your cool your jets if the jets need cooling. And maybe you view it as him being a little frustrated and not able to emotionally regulate. And so maybe you think that's bad. But mostly I think that the thing that everyone in that clubhouse is likely focused on is, hey, wow, those Padres only a game back and meanwhile AJ Pro sitting in his office going, it was all part of my plan. It was all part of my plan. He'll learn. It won't matter if we come away from this period with more time to assess the results on the field. If we think that AJ did a good job or a bad job. Right now, AJ's like, I did the best job. I will learn no lessons. If there are any lessons to be learned, they're not. They're not current. AJ's problem. Those might be future AJ's problem. Those are not my problems right now.
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Yes, that is me every night into morning when I stay up forever and then figure that it's tomorrow me's problem and then tomorrow and then it's my problem. It's today's problem. But I have not learned that lesson in my 30 plus years on this earth. So yeah, maybe it's the same sort of dynamic there. But anyway, I imagine maybe Headline news in Japan. Dave Roberts has semi harsh words for Shohei Ohtani. Who knows. But the Dodgers rotation is rounding into form, actually, and so that would probably make one more optimistic if one were a Dodgers fan. Not that you can count on any of those guys to stay healthy for any length of time, but the fact that they felt comfortable enough to trade Dustin May. Not that Dustin May had been any great shakes for them, but there was a point in the season where just anyone who could pitch at all was a pretty hot commodity for them. But now just about everyone is nominally back and Seville's back and Glasnow and Yamamoto's cruising and Ohtani's doing well. And Kershaw has been pitching quite well himself. Emmett Sheehan so suddenly the Dodgers are deep when it comes to starters. Will that continue? Who knows?
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Who knows? Who could possibly say?
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Even Roki Sasaki is on the comeback trail, seemingly.
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Yeah. On the men's I can't believe I'm in a position where I might end up having to say nice things about Blake Snell. Who who could have predicted that we would get here?
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I wonder whom they will move to the bullpen if they are blessed with all of these healthy starting arms when October rolls around. Because Dustin May, he could have been a candidate to do that. I don't know whether he would have wanted to on the eve of free agency. You could imagine Roki, if he's healthy and throwing hard, maybe that would be one way to ease him back in.
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Yes. Seems like an ideal deployment. You know, if he's in a position where they feel comfortable that he can really contribute something, I imagine we would see him sort of east back in out of the pen. Yeah.
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Yeah. Well, speaking of Dodger starters, I did. We're a little late to this news, but that Friday Kershaw Scherzer showdown, I said that successfully. That was fun stuff. You know, the old guys still got it. They both pitched credibly well. Kershaw out dueled his former Dodgers teammate Max Scherzer, but it is striking just how similar some of their career accomplishments are. And Everyone billed it as the two guys with 3,000 strikeouts, but there's so many other things they have in common. Just two championships a piece. 218 wins, pitcher wins a piece. After Kershaw won that game brought him into an exact precise tie with Scherzer. It's their respective 18th seasons. Of course, Scherzer has a few years on Kershaw, but Kershaw got started and established younger, and so it's the same number of seasons. And actually, on Baseball Reference, I believe that they are each other's second most similar player, I think.
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Oh, interesting.
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I think Pedro is actually the most similar pitcher to each of them, but they're runner up for each other. So a lot of history there and what was it, four career matchups. It wasn't something that had happened a whole lot. And of course, everyone was spreading the story about the fateful day when they first debuted against each other way back when, which was supposed to be a Randy Johnson versus Greg Maddox start. And then they got scratched and two other legends stepped up to take their places. Not that people knew that they would be legends on that level at the time, but, yeah, that was good. And, you know, a lot of this season, they and Verlander, whom I've just kind of grouped together in my mind as these guys who are kind of in the twilight and are some of the defining starters of their era, many times they have not looked like their old selves or they have looked like their very old selves this season. And this time, at least, you know, they showed flashes that they got it done, they gutted through it, and it was fun to see them go at it. So, you know, it was a typical modern starting pitcher matchup, especially with advanced age starters, where they're not going to go that deep into the game, of course, and it's not like they hit against each other, although that did happen earlier in their career. And I want to say Scherzer singled against Kershaw. I think that happened. So washed. Yeah, Kershaw can't come back. Can't get even on that score. But. But that was a pretty fun night.
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I. I will admit that that rolled through and I didn't watch, but I did see the highlights after and I noted the. The success. It's a good thing, like you want. It's still hard for me, even when it goes well, to have the relief at it going well and the glimpse and appreciation for the glimpse of the old version of them to outweigh the, oh, God, is this gonna make me sad going in but you know, you get close and that's really the best you can do.
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I did see a quote along those lines from Verlander, who got his 3-500th strikeout in his most recent start, but couldn't really take a lot of pleasure in it because he didn't pitch very well, which has been the case for him most of the time this season. He struck out the side in the first inning. He was facing the Nationals. And so he was the 10th pitcher to have that many strikeouts. But then something unraveled. Not to have three strikeouts in a game. To be clear, many more than 10 pitchers have shown that, but to have 3,500. But he had a quote there that sort of spoke to the capacity for self denial that, that we all have inside ourselves. I think maybe older athletes more than any other. Because, you know, he's been struggling. He's been looking for answers and it seems like he has been flummoxed by why he has not pitched better. And most people would say have you looked at how old you are? But he doesn't feel that, I guess. And, and he's not that far removed from being great because he did win a Cy Young award in his comeback in 2022. So from his perspective he's probably thinking, well, that wasn't that long ago. It wasn't really, and why can't I come back from that potential? But he compared his stuff to 2022 or said that he has been constantly comparing his stuff to his stuff from 2022 and that he hasn't found a difference really. And so he's been pretty puzzled by why he has not had better results because in his mind the stuff has been there. And I don't know exactly where he's seeing that or what information exactly he is really relying on to come to that conclusion. And that's why I wonder whether it's sort of selective stat looking, perhaps some cherry picking, perhaps accentuating the positive. I don't know. Because looking at his stuff stats on his Fangraphs player page, it's definitely down from 2022. Like his. Yeah, his stuff plus was 115 in 2022. Higher is better. 100 is average. This year it's 106 which is, you know, not terrible, but definitely down. And then his location plus so the, the command, how he's spotting those pitches, also down from 99 to 93. And so you put those things together. And the pitching plus which combines blends the stuff and the location has declined from 112 to 99. So well above average to well below.
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Yeah.
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And yet he said, well, not well below, but barely below. And he said, stuff's great. Stuff's fine. I've spent a lot of the season looking at comparables. It's right on par, literally almost up and down the board with when I won the Cy Young. So I think the stuff is just fine. The results have been. And here's that word again, frustrating. So I wonder what stuff he's looking at exactly to reach that conclusion and console himself.
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Yeah, it is. It is an odd thing because it's not like he's, you know, I know that there's been personnel change and what have you from a front office perspective, but it's not like it's a group that doesn't put data and metrics in front of their guys. So I have to imagine on some level he knows. Question mark. I mean, I suppose it could be as simple as it feels the same to him, even if the metrics would point to it obviously being different and, like, not by a little bit relative to his. His best seasons, but, like, maybe it feels the same. And so what a weird thing that would be, you know?
A
Yeah. Yeah. I don't know whether the Giants are showing him something or. Or whether he's freelancing here and looking things up on his own because, you know, I guess it's not like his pitch speeds have completely cratered. Like, sure, you know, he's lost most of a mile per hour since 2022 on average, but it's not completely collapse in that department. But, yeah, yeah, you look at the stuff and. And I haven't dug into exactly why the stuff metrics are worse because I have not spent as much time comparing as it sounds like Justin Frander has. Sure, yeah, the. It's basically, it's more or less across the board, but it looks like especially the fastball. The fastball is. Is not. The pitch characteristics are not as good. And also the curveball, not so hot, too. So it's. It's not even just one particular pitch anyway. You know, I don't know. I guess we all just tell ourselves these sweet nothings and fictions and try to, like, assuage our concerns and say, oh, I'm not that old and I still got it. And, you know, you. Selective memory. Right.
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And this back pain will go away, right?
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Yes. I feel fine some of the time. Most of the time. Yeah. So I'm. I'm basically the same. So.
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Right. The second IPA will be fine. That won't do me in for the next day. It'll be fine. Yeah.
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Yeah. And I guess I'm just looking at the, the pitching bot on the page as well. And yeah, it looks like there's, there's definitely some decline there too. So I don't know what you're looking at exactly. Justin Berlander. It's a little different from what is on your fangraph's player page, but perhaps, perhaps you would point to some other stat. I don't know. But that was, that was somewhat telling to me.
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Yeah.
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And even just the fact that he is. He's reaching for that comparison and trying to. Because that's what a lot of players do if they're going through a rough patch, even if it's not necessarily age related.
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Right.
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Maybe your mechanics are in a funk. And so you call up some video from when you were going well and you say, what am I doing differently now? And how can I get back to what was working then? And probably you're, you're grasping those straws ever more tightly as you start to get to the age bracket that Justin Verlander currently occupies.
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I wonder too. You know, there's the, I'm engaged in completely unsubstantiated psychoanalysis here of, of Justin Verlander in particular and older players more generally. But, you know, I think there's the, a difference between sort of a short term denial and a long term denial. And the distinction I draw there is. I'd be very curious and I will be very curious to see sort of how he talks about the season that just was. And then his desire to continue pitching once the season is ended has ended. Because there is possibly a part of this that is, hey, man, like, I'm still under contract through the end of September, you know, like, the Giants aren't going to make the postseason, but he's got, he's got a couple more turns through the, the rotation to, to take here. Right. And so part of what you're doing might be I got to get through to. Yeah, the postseason starts on freaking September 30th, Ben. Wild card round starts on September 30th. Yeah, I don't care for that at all.
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It's inconvenient for our being able to say, October post.
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Get that one day. Yeah, get that.
A
So close. Just really give that to us.
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They're really jabbing me on that. You know, I'm, I'm furious. But anyway, I also think that, like, it's sort of an act of aggression to send me an email on Aug. 12 about your postseason schedule. Like you can't get to the middle of the month on that anyway. But. So I'll be curious to, to see sort of how he reflects when he's not engaged in a need to sort of soldier through what has been an up and down season and one that certainly has had highlights as we, we've noted here. Right. Like getting to 3,500 strikeouts is an accomplishment and one that you should be proud of, even if it comes in a loss, an effort that ended up not being particularly sterling. But, but once you're not in the day to day, once you're not trying to get through like, you might have room for a more honest assessment of how it went and how it might go if you stick with it. So I'll be curious to see how that maybe moves around for him.
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He's collecting some milestones, I suppose he's compiling. He's not compiling many wins which he had hoped for. In fact, he has won and I guess he hasn't compiled any baseball reference WAR either. He's at least in positive territory. Per fan graphs. The FIP is, is fine. It's not great, but it's, it's playable. So he's not embarrassing himself out there, I don't think. And, and I always say that pitchers and players should play as, as long as they feel like they want to and someone will let them. So if you're one to usher someone off the stage with the, the cane yanking them off stage right or left or they can work their way off when they want to as far as I'm concerned. But it is somewhat deflating at times to watch it happen.
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Yeah, I agree.
A
I guess in a more positive light, I am heartened by some of the youngsters who have shown up and been on torrid stretches lately. So we had and are having, I guess we're having the Luke Kishel. I mean, he debuted in April. So it's, it's this weird sort of splintered thing when you talk about his first X Games. Not X Games as in the X Games, but you know, his first however many games. But he's been having all sorts of heroics for the Twins, which is exciting and well timed for them, I would say, because of the exodus. Like it's always really, it's really nice when that happens. I mean, yes, of course my mind goes to the heroics of one Joey Menesis, just, you know, salving everyone's just souls after the departure of Juan Soto. But when a young guy comes up and you get a glimpse of the future when it seems like you've just turned the page on the recent past. And then, hey, we have Lukeisho. Look at him hit. This is fun. So he's been on a tear and then for a while there, warming Bernabel.
B
Yeah.
A
The Rockies was similarly off to quite a start. And he has been cooling Bernabel lately. There have been so many jokes about. I mean, it's. It's a delightful name, but so many people were making the, you know, very easy. Ah, he's not warming Bernabel. He's already hot, you know, but how could you pass that up? I suppose so he had just a blistering first seven games. I guess he had a 317 WRC plus in his first. Let's see, it was. Yeah, his first seven games with the Rockies. He came up on July 26th. July 26th through August 2nd. 317 WRC +. Since then, he has also played seven games, and he has a. No, sorry. He's played eight games from August 3rd to August 11th, and he has a negative 3 WRC +.
B
That's less good.
A
That's been. Yeah, I would be a complicated query, but I would guess that going from 317 to negative three, like, oh, yeah. Has to be the same number.
B
Biggest swings.
A
Yeah, it's gotta be. It's gotta be up there. I would think so. He was all the rage for about a week, and then. Yeah, lately not so hot. But we all got acquainted with warming Bernabel and what a fun name. And so, you know, he's. He's not a top 100 guy, right? He hasn't been. I don't think. He's not at Pipeline. I don't think he is on the board at fangraphs right now. Kishel is at Pipeline, but I think is not at fangraphs. Am I right about that? You would know the board better than I. But neither of them is a tippy. Top prospect, but promising players.
B
Kishl's a top 100 guy.
A
He was ranked.
B
Yeah, he's ranked 56th overall. He okay?
A
Yeah, I figured he would be, but somehow I missed him.
B
Yeah, he's definitely on there. I don't remember where he was prior to our most recent update, but if you give me two shakes of a little lamb's tail. Yeah, he was a top 100 guy when their list went live. So. Yeah.
A
A patented optistats. Fun fact. In his first 10 games in the majors, the Twins, Luke Kishel has a 500 plus. On base percentage, 10 plus runs batted in, 5 plus steals in the last 20 years. The only other MLB rookie to put up those numbers over any 10 game span. That makes the fact more fun is it does make it more fun.
B
Yeah.
A
Mike Trout in 2012. So second coming of Mike Trout. Luke Kishel. So what can I say? I'm a simple man. I enjoy a rookie sensation. And when a rookie comes up and sets the world on fire for a week or two, well, you never know. He could just be the best player ever. We have no big league level evidence to the contrary and we know way more than than we used to about prospects. So there's less of a surprise, there's less of a innocent naivete. So you're probably going to get fooled a little less often by a Kevin Moss than you might have before because I know, oh, this guy's here on the list or he's there on the list or he's not on the list. And so I calibrate my expectations accordingly. Whereas decades ago there was no list, at least not a list that everyone knew. So for all the average fan knew, this guy could be the goat. Capital G, O A T, not lowercase. And they used to say that a rookie hitter who came up could be good once around the league because the book wasn't out. And granted the rookie wouldn't have a book on any of the pitchers, but maybe the pitchers would pitch him like some scrub and he would take advantage of that for a while and then the book would get out and then the next time around the league he would get his comeuppance and I don't know how predictable a pattern that was. And if it was one, I'd figure that it would be less predictable today because the book is already out. The book is written before you're called up. There's so much data and information and video on minor leaguers. And now of course, everyone claims that the adjustment from the minors to the majors is harder, which I kind of doubt. But some top prospects certainly have struggled, as some always have. So it's nice to see someone at least temporarily lay waste to the league as if this level is somehow easier for them than the lower level. There's still an exciting sense of possibility and newness, that fresh relationship honeymoon phase. So we've had a extremely hot rookie in each league to enjoy up late.
B
At least so hot.
A
Until the slightest lump set in for Mr. Bernabel.
B
So I'm, I'm really torn about which of these I like more. I think that like the, the, the more rigorous answer, the certainly the more defensible answer is Kishel. Not only because he has been so torrid and the fun facts are I think legitimately quite so fun, but also being. Being the guy who gives your fan base a lift when you have gone through the sort of tear down that the Twins did at the deadline. And like, there's the on field production. But that is some real. We can't measure it with war value. Right. Like it does, I think just fundamentally alter your experience of, of the team when you have not only a guy who's playing well, but no, certainly no offense to Joey Menesis, but a guy who is also understood to be an important, potentially important part of the future of the franchise. Right. Like Keisha was a, a preseason top 100 guy for us. I think that was true for most publications. Sort of understood to be a good prospect. Maybe not to your point, like a tippy tippy top prospect, but like a solidly top 100 guy. And so for him to be doing the thing that we, we thought he would be able to do and at this particular moment in time, like, I think that that is a really special thing. And those guys can end up being you really precious to fans, not only when the times are good, but as sort of a, a bridge from the lean times to those good times. But also Warming Bernabel is like such a, like an 80 name. It's, it's like if we factored the name into the evaluation because you're right, I don't think that he was, he was last a ranked prospect for us like back in 2023, maybe. And so but like if I asked the prospect guys to like season the reports with the name top 10, like overall warming Burn. I mean, just like it sounds like the name of a, like a wizard in like a young adult novel. Right? Like Warming Bernabelle. Like he is some sort of dashing wizarding sorts. You know, maybe. Maybe he's not a wizard, but he's like magic adjacent. You know, he's in some, something in that space that's pretty, that's pretty great.
A
Because we, we lost Tapita Marcano and you know, he ran himself out of the game. But we, we're the real losers because we lost that name.
B
I'm sure he would agree that we were the real losers there. Yeah, he'd be like, you're right.
A
I mean, in a way he, he was a loser, I guess on multiple levels. But also we lost something in. We did because that's right. We have fewer opportunities to say Tucapita Marcano.
B
Yeah.
A
And when we say it, it's now, it's now tainted. It's a tainted. And so instead of capita, we have, we have Warming Bernabel, who could maybe be a replacement in our hearts.
B
Yes.
A
Perhaps he could warm them.
B
Yeah. I mean, certainly we have unfortunate occasion to remember and use Marcano's name because these dumb controvers controversies keep, Keep coming. And so we have to remind everyone that we have had a recent lifetime ban for gambling. But it's not a fun occasion. Right. Like we're, we're there to do unfortunate business when we invoke Marcano's name now, whereas warming Bernabel, I mean, I, I am here for a fun time, you know, and for his sake, hopefully a long one.
A
Yeah. You almost have to call him Marcano in that context because Tucapita just. It sounds so joyous. You can't, can't really be sad when you're saying Tucapita. And so it is hard, you know, reflecting on the disgrace of Tucapita Marcano. We just have to stick with the surname. I think it sounds just a little less light.
B
Yeah. And like Warren Bernabel has like a musicality to it that is really nice. Whereas with Tucapita Marcano, I feel like I need to pay attention when I'm saying it because there's like a lot.
A
Of you have to concentrate consonants in.
B
There and you're trying to space him. Right. And anyway, even though he has been banned in disgrace, I, I still owe him the dignity of his name. Right. I still want to say his name correctly, but I do feel like I really gotta take a pause and, and make sure I'm getting all the consonants right. So I, I enjoy Warming for a number of reasons and then to Marcano's detriment. And this is, is one of them. One, not a gambler. Two, not banned in disgrace. Three, warming Bernabel, you know. You know. Yeah.
A
As warming Bernabel goes, so go the Rockies, I suppose, because they were playing better, but they have lost eight in a row. I believe those are the same. Yeah. That coincides with the Warming Bernabel cooldown. And so there now, I mean, I had written off their chances of really chasing history of having the White Sox hold their beer. And, and yeah, they're saying, not so fast. Don't count us out so quickly. Maybe we can be that bad.
B
I understand there's like a humor to it. I feel like we do our best with these sorts of stories, right. We don't want to excuse, like, this kind of organizational ineptitude, but you got to be able to find the funny in it, right? Like, we. We are in search of that. But I. My request, my ask of major league teams next year is I don't want to be thinking about new losing records. You know, like, spare us this. Life is hard enough as it's currently constituted. We don't need to be thinking about this nonsense.
A
Yeah, we had the A's two seasons ago for a while. Then we had the White Sox. Now we have the Rockies. I think it will have run its course after that, hopefully. I think if we go a fourth season in a row with some team just truly challenging the worst teams of all time, then maybe, maybe that will have jumped the shark, you know, so maybe we can just content ourselves. The three seasons will suffice, I think. Three consecutive seasons.
B
Yeah, it's just like such a. It drags you down, you know, it really does drag you down. And I'm sure that the guys on the team are like, yeah, we also would like to suck less, but guess what? You have control.
A
At least be better at baseball.
B
Yeah, you have more input anyway. Not control. It is. It is a game that will humble you. But. But. But also be less humble. You know, be humbled less would be my request.
A
Hey, speaking of hot streaks, did we call the Carlos Correa Astros renaissance, or did we. I'm sure we weren't the only ones, but Carlos Correa has now almost equaled his 2025 WAR with the Twins in his first 10 games with the Astros.193 WRC plus back in Houston. I guess he only just recently returned to Houston and actually played there, but as soon as he put the Astros colors on again, he just instantly morphed back into Astros era Carlos Kreia, as we all expected and forecasted, much to the dismay of the Mariners, who otherwise have been riding high and almost eliminating the difference between those teams.
B
I think that. Here's the thing about it, I have so little input into this division race. All I control I can control is how I feel about it. And so what I'm going to do is I'm going to choose to be delighted that the Mariners have been playing good baseball lately, that they have taken good advantage of playing teams that aren't doing as well and helping to collapse that gap and make it. Make it a race, you know, firmly in playoff position. But you do gotta. You do. Gotta slay the dragon, Seattle. You know, like, you gotta do it and so in some respects, here's. Here's how I can maybe help my fellow Mariners fans think about it in a way that won't have you crash out so hard about Carlos Cray, because let me tell you, there are a lot of really just bereft Mariners fans. Now, to be clear, the vibes around the team are, I think, actually quite good.
A
They should be. Yeah.
B
Because. And they should be. They've been playing good baseball. They are at the deadline. Yeah. There. And those reinforcements are playing well, and Julio is hitting well. And Cal seems like he might be pulling out of this skit a little bit, though, to your point. It's been kind of home run or bust for him lately. And so. So look, the vibes are good. I don't want to. I don't want to suggest. Don't put it in the newspaper that I was mad. Okay. I don't want to suggest that.
A
I almost said big slumper before, but I didn't want to make you mad.
B
Absolutely not. With you. Go on, hang up and listen with that, my friend. You don't. You don't bring that energy to our podcast. How dare. How dare. Absolutely not. You're in timeout.
A
Like the. In the implication that I'm. I'm snarky mean Ben over on Hang up and listen. That's why I just. I save all of my. My barbs for that podcast.
B
Yeah, look, you save your Mariners barbs, okay? You can barb away. You. You. You barb out, okay? You. You. You. First season of Stranger Things that here all you want justice for Barb. But also, that's coming back soon, Right? End of the year anyway. We don't have to talk about it again. But. So here's. Here's the perspective I'd like to offer my fellow Mariners fans before I rose so predictably to the bait that I was offered on this year podcast. At some point, they gotta slay the dragon, right? Like the. The postseason drought has ended. It is starting to accumulate time again. But we're not in embarrassing territory yet. There's nothing embarrassing here. We're not going to get mentioned on the broadcast of another sport as like, a cautionary tale of what you don't want your franchise to be. Right. That's not the territory we're in. We don't have to. We don't have to sweat that. But here's the thing.
A
Thing.
B
The next thing is to win the division. It's been a very long time. It's been a really, really long time. And you might think, oh, no, the, The Astros, they reinforced their lineup at the, at the deadline, and Correa will come back and he will be spectacular. And it, it's all, it's all over. But no, just think if they can do it, how satisfying it will be. It will be so satisfying if, if, if Korea comes back, back and he plays well and they're able to kind of cobble it together and then they lose the division anyway. We're going to be insufferable. We're going to be the worst, and people will lose sympathy for us in the playoffs, and then they'll root for other teams. But here's the thing. It'll. It'll feel good. You'll feel good to you, and you'll be excited and you'll be happy, and then, you know, you'll have checked off a box and it'll be a satisfying box to check. And then, you know, I'll let Ben.
A
Out of timeout, you know, as we speak, the playoff odds at fangraph still give the Astros a slight edge, but I think I would flip it. I'm. I'm a Mariners man. I think they're the better team now.
B
You'Re a Mariners man. We're out here.
A
I've changed my tune.
B
We're out here speaking big slumper into existence. Like, like, like we understand how magic works and should toy with it. What is wrong with you? Absolutely not. Now you're a Mariners man. I'm not a magician.
A
That's warming Bernabel as we establish. But no, I think the Mariners are the better team and I do think that they can overcome this one game deficit that they face currently. I don't know. I don't know how the Esters have been as good as they've been with the absences and underperformance. So the fact that they're even here at this point in mid August, in first place yet again somehow. Yeah, but it just, it feels like a high wire act that I don't know if they can make it six more weeks.
B
I don't know either. But here's the thing. I simply have to assume that they will so that I am less disappointed if it doesn't turn around. Because, I mean, here's the thing. We're going to learn. We're going to learn some stuff about these here Seattle Mariners in the next little bit here because, you know, they, they go to Baltimore, the Orioles famously not playing very good baseball this year, but they're on the road at Baltimore. They're on the road against the Mets who also are not playing good baseball lately.
A
Good gravy vibes have been bad in my city, in many boroughs, multiple boroughs lately.
B
But a team that I think has a. Has a higher true talent level than what they put on the field of late. Like, I think that they are a better baseball team than they have played. Like. And some of these, these, you know, some of these losses have been heartbreaking and disappointing and marred by like. And marked by like bad defensive play and guys and, you know, Edwin Diaz blowing saves. And there's like a weird twinning thing going on with the Mets and the Yankees right now. It's like there's the sloppiness and so anyway, you're all despondent and I wish you well, but. But not this weekend. So, you know, they have the, the Mets, then they go to the Phillies. They have a home, a home stretch that involves, well, the Athletics, but also the Padres. We've noted our playing better. So like they, you know, they got the Guardians. They have more real teams on the horizon. I can't believe that they close their season against the Dodgers. That's something, you know, that's fun. That could be a lot of fun. Gosh, we're all going to be so such a wreck. Can you imagine if like, they have to beat the Super Dodgers, if they should be the stupid Dodgers to win the division? Oh, my God. It's just, you know, it's like you want them there. You want, as a fan, you do want them in the postseason. But as I said last time, like, it's not fun, you know, feels very stressful and it's, it's bad for me because, like, and that's really what it's all about at the end of the day is my experience of it because, like, October is a, is a very busy, stressful months for me from a work perspective. You know, we just got.
A
That was why MLB was trying to give you a heads up on that schedule. Like, hey, Mick, we'll let you know early.
B
Oh, sure. Yeah.
A
Plan to be buried in work.
B
Yeah. Because there was ambiguity about it. You know, like, also Halloween, not a scheduled off day this year. I don't care for that. I don't care for that.
A
That's tough for your trick or treating aspirations. I know how important that is to you.
B
To be clear, I am not trick or treating. I enjoy part treats. Right. Yes. I just, you know, we are so lucky to have new listeners all the time. They have not heard me talk about Halloween yet. And so I, I don't want to Judge, like, I think teens should be able to trick or treat. I think that's a nice thing. I think it's an indication of a healthy and, and safe community when the teens can trick or treat and hopefully they do it in a way that's not annoying. But like, don't be weird about teens and trick or treating a 39 year old woman without a child. She shouldn't be trick or treating. I'm comfortable saying that I, I'm comfortable having judgment about that, that decision if it were one that people were making. Although I think largely it is not one that people are making. But I do enjoy. I bought a, I bought a Halloween candy bowl yesterday. I was like, it's 110 degrees. We're doing this. Like, I gotta cope somehow. I, I, I am, I am activating this level of cope. Anyway.
A
It'S Milwaukee's world anyway. We're all just trying to carve out a corner of it while the brewers are just hogging all of the wins. So do you remember when, when Brandon Woodruff came back and I was marveling at the fact that he was still standing, that he was still breathing, basically, like, how do athletes do it? How to, how is his shoulder still attached? How could he make it back at this level? He has been. Well, if you go by RA9 war, I'm cheating here. But if you do that, he's, he's basically been a top 10 pitcher in baseball since he came back. And by basically top ten, I mean he is tied out to one decimal place, four tenths. So, you know, that's the fan graphs ra9war leaderboard since his return on July 6th, more than a month now. And Fip tells a slightly different story, obviously. So, you know, I assume that there will be some correction coming in his surface stats as well. He does have a 143Babbage. I know the brewers are good at pretty much everything. They could play good defense, but not that good. So although, you know, he's given up a lot of home runs on fly balls as well. So maybe, maybe there will be two kinds of correction and they will meet in the middle. And he will still be good, but he'll still be good. He has been excellent. He has not merely been some semblance of his former self, but he has basically just resumed pitching the way that he did before he was hurt, if not better.
B
He has been terrific. Davey just wrote about him for us for fan graphs. He noted this day that you're talking about where on the one hand he has been Quite lucky. But also, it seems like all of his hard contact has been, like, pulled in the air for a home run. And so there might be some equalization there. And, you know, he's. You'll be shocked to learn, as a guy coming off major shoulder surgery at his age, like, not throwing nearly as hard as he used to. But, like, there's also stuff there that is very positive, and he seems like he has to factor pretty heavily in their postseason rotation. So. Yeah. And also, if Andrew Vaughn just keeps hitting home runs, then what does it matter how Woodruff pitches on those days? Right? He just hit a bunch of.
A
Yeah, Andrew Vaughn, Colson Montgomery, you know, baseball's best sluggers, basically, as we all expected. Yeah, Brendan Woodruff and. And Justin Verlander could get together and compare 20, 22 stuff stats with each other, but Brandon Woodruff probably doesn't need to because he has a pitch better than Verlander. But the brewers, everyone's talking about them. We've talked about them, too. What more is there to say? A lot of people just point out the depth. I pointed out the depth and how, okay, maybe the individual seasons don't stand out. It's just that they have a whole group of good guys. If a few were great guys. But then, yeah, that just raises a secondary question, which is just like, how do they keep getting all these good guys? It's one thing to just say, yeah, just have a bunch of average plus players, but it's easier said than done. You have to develop or trade for or sign those guys somehow. And other teams want them, too. And the brewers have just been better at that. It just. It feels like during this run that they've been on, and they've won 10 in a row, as we've. As we're speaking, but, you know, they've. They've. I haven't remembered a Brewer's loss in months, it feels like, at this point. And so. So it just. It feels like they have taken the crown of wow. Milwaukee's the model organization. They're just the shining paragon of the league. They're what every other organization aspires to be. Not that they haven't been respected for some time now because they've been constantly in contention, but they seem to have just taken a leap. And I guess that says as much about the mediocrity of the next best teams in baseball this season as it does about the Brewers. But the brewers have been quite good. So, yeah, they have really sort of separated themselves now. It's just, you know, we Used to kind of compare them to like, oh, the Rays. They're kind of like, you know, Milwaukee Rays, like they're the, the Midwest equivalent of the Rays or whatever. And now, no, they're, they're like setting a more superlative example than the Rays, who of course have cratered lately and have been just like constantly on the road because of that, that right front loaded home schedule that they have in a minor league park and everything. But yeah, brewers, just the epitome of professionalism in baseball these days. The epitome of professionalism and pocket pancakes.
B
They're putting them in a little pouch now. We got an email about that. They're putting them, they're putting the pocket pancakes in a little pouch and then they give you syrup and also butter. And so I still think that there's like a stickiness issue unresolved, but, but less of a stickiness issue because you could in theory, like, you know, drizzle the syrup on the pocket pancakes and hold onto the little pouch and then just be like, nom, nom, nom. Pocket pancakes. Pocket pancakes. I mean, I'll say this about Wisconsin. Wisconsin innovates in the award space in a, in a pretty dramatic way. And so that's exciting, you know, like different cheeses, cheeses that take on a different texture depending on how they're prepared. Right. Like, don't underestimate a state that, you know, I'm not saying they invented cheese curds. They may have invented cheese curds. I'm just saying I don't have that historical like, fact at my disposal. But they've definitely, if they didn't invent them, they took someone else's and ran with it, you know, so like I, I shouldn't be surprised. A lot of snack potential in the Midwest because they're, they're really interested in doing exciting stuff with dairy, you know, and, and various meat. Meats and pocky pancakes, as we've established.
A
Another exciting to some thing that the brewers have done is an alumni home run derby. They did this recently, so they had Prince Fielder, who I'm glad can participate in an alumni home run derby, and Ryan Braun, who still popular among many Milwaukee fans, I suppose, and some less prominent non legends, perhaps brewers veterans, including effectively Wild, or at least Jeff Sullivan, legend Keon Braxton.
B
Keon Braxton.
A
Whenever I read that name, I hear Jeff sayon Braxton. Yeah, the ship has sailed on the Braxton breakout. However, he did win the brewers alumni home run game that they did. So they, they had this derby and you know, derby's all the rage right now. I mean, this is another data point in support of Sam's article way back when about how Home Run Derby is the future of baseball or sports or is going to take over the world. And I guess the brewers are not the first to do a veteran or alumni Home Run Derby, but they had a pretty successful event. And it seems like, I mean, Casey McGee was in this thing. I don't know exactly what the qualifications were for participating in this or if you had to meet a certain threshold for Brewer's excellence to get in on this thing. I mean, these things can be hazardous, right? I mean, the Yankees just brought back their Old Timers game and Mariano Rivera tears his Achilles, which is the first time that he has torn something severe while shagging fly balls. But you know, he was going after 12019 in the old Timers game. I think he hit an inside the Parker or something and here he was going after a ball tore the Achilles. Time is undefeated. But you know, when you have an alumni Home Run Derby, you just never know what you're going to get or whether that's going to be interesting or whether anyone's going to go deep at all. And this one was fun, evidently. And so now the discussion is, will this kickstart alumni home run derbies everywhere? Will the enthusiasm for the All Star swing off and the derby in general spawn more alumni derbies? And you know, I guess I'm into it. I guess, you know, as long as you have the right personnel, then sure, why not?
B
People have like, it seems like a really nice way to indulge nostalgia around these things because they're almost always like benefiting charity in some capacity. Right. And so you have like the feel good part of it and you like to see your guys. Now, I can imagine that it is at times like a, a little bit thorny because people go on to have lives after they've played baseball and sometimes they don't conduct themselves great with those lives. And so you do have to like, think about that part of it. But, but I think that they're nice, you know, if people feel comfortable doing it, they understand. I'm sure that there's some risk. Although maybe, you know, looping back to our Justin Verlander conversation, perhaps people are less adept at assessing their own limitations as they age than I'm necessarily assuming. But I think it's a, I think it's a nice thing. People show up for all kinds of celebrity. This is. And that that's, you know, they're.
A
Yeah, yeah. This was fantastic.
B
Celebrity. This is a nuts.
A
A sellout crowd. I don't know how many of the ticket sales were because of the Home Run Derby, but it played a part. And it's part of the 25th anniversary celebration.
B
Sure.
A
Of American Family Field. So they bring these guys back. I don't like. How far down the list do you get before you get to Keon Braxton, I wonder. It's just, you know, didn't have the. The longest Milwaukee tenure, but he had his moments anyway. Evidently, the brewers business operations guy said that a half dozen MLP teams reached out after this derby to just, you know, pump his brain a bit, get information on how well it had worked so that they could kind of perhaps put their own plan into motion and. And do this elsewhere. So we'll see.
B
We'll see that. I mean, I think they're fun. I do think that having them sort of pegged to a particular, like, milest is maybe a good way to do them, but not exhaust the. The premise. Right? Like, if you're like, oh, yeah, it's a. It's an anniversary game or what have you, then, you know, you're. You're not doing it necessarily every year. I don't know if there's appetite for that, but maybe there is. You know, again, people are nostalgic. They like to indulge nostalgia, and, you know, that's not always a productive impulse, but it doesn't have to be a negative one either, so maybe it's fine.
A
Pick your brain, not pump your brain. Pumping sounds, well, not painful, but hazardous, probably.
B
Pump your brain. Yeah, pump your brain. That's like, if you've played Learned League or whatever, a lot, you're pumping your. Is it Learned League? Is that what it's called?
A
It's Learned League.
B
Learned League. Okay, relax, you guys. Learned League. Get out of here. I was saying nice stuff, but now I think you're just being cut hockey. Learned League. What are you, some sort of country gentleman in a Jane Austin novel? I. I must do my Learning League before I go. Quarter Bennett sister, what are we doing here? I don't know what that accent was either, but guess what? You all have to deal with it because I had to learn about Learned League.
A
Yes.
B
Oh, my God.
A
You just learned that lesson. Pat Murphy was. Was pretty into this alumni derby. He said, I think it just opens the door. Can you imagine the brewers versus the Cubs Home Run Derby? Their three legends versus Legends of ours. You know what I mean? Can you imagine that happening around the league? I can just see him just munching on his pocket pancake.
B
I was just gonna say he just spread this possibility. He just wants to spread the gospel of, of the pocket pancake to another, another league, another team, another. He's like, we must spread the Gospel.
A
Pocket Casey McGee suggested that it could be 2005 to 2010 brewers against 2010 to 2015 brewers. It could be age based, perhaps, although it seems like there'd be a bit of an advantage built in for one team there. But I don't know. I like that. McGee said he tried working on his swing before last week's event, but family obligations got in the way way. So he didn't really prepare for this very much. For all I know he hadn't swung in years, but yeah, and you know, I they didn't put up short fences, which is kind of nice. I mean, they didn't hit as many homers because you don't want guys to get skunked. You want them to be able to still poke one out. And like there's the famous highlight in, in the Old Timers game of Luke Appling hitting a home run when he was 70 something. And it's pretty impressive, but there were shallower fences. And so, you know, it's, it's nice if guys can actually reach the fence with the old distance. And the nice thing about an alumni homer derby is that you don't really have to run. So less of a chance of, of tearing something if you're just swinging, though. Still some chance.
B
Yeah, still some chance, but an importantly diminished chance, shall we say?
A
Yes, because players are importantly diminished, perhaps at that point in their careers. We got a question about running and about base stealing from Zach Patreon supporter who said, I meant to mention this when we were talking about the Mariners. I feel like if you two don't address Josh Naylor's stolen base exploits soon, I'm going to wonder if I'm existing in the same reality as you. It is really something what is happening here. He has 11 stolen bases in 15 games as a Mariner, which is the same number of stolen bases he had in 93 games as a Diamondback and more stolen bases than he had had in any previous season. What has gotten into Josh?
B
It is funny because he's, you know, he's not built like a guy you think would be a stool and base machine, but I think that some of it might just be that he is perhaps running on guys who aren't. I mean, wow, he had. He had two in one game. Two in two games. I mean, back to back games against the White Sox and then he had two against the Angels. I think some of this is probably just having a good sense of the, the guys that you're playing against, maybe you're like, they don't have the best.
A
Arms back two times this year and no times as a Mariner. He has a third percentile sprint speed. I love the. It's not even sneaky fast. It's just sneaky. I, I like the, the old guy who picks his spots. He's not old either. He's just, he's slow. He's 28, but it reminds me of older players, like, you know, sneaky Steeler Pooholes late in his career where he had that run where he couldn't run really at all, and yet he would just pick up some stolen bases or, I don't know, Paul Goldschmidt. Like, the guys who aren't fast, maybe they were never particularly fast, but they're, they're wily. They have base stealing instincts. And also everyone writes them off. Freddie Freeman, right. Freddie Freeman had that season where suddenly he was stealing bases out of nowhere. It's just, you know, no one's paying attention to you, and you figure, I can go, so I might as well. I love it.
B
Yeah. I mean, I do think that some of this is, is also just having like an understanding of, of who you're running against. He is running against Kyle Teal, and maybe, you know, Kyle Teal's been okay as a. At throwing runners out this year, but like, sometimes doesn't do a great job of that. Like, he wasn't particularly sterling at AAA for Chicago. So maybe some of this is just like, yes, they don't expect you to go, and so you have some advantage to go. And some of it might be running against guys who you can run on, and the combination of those things is enough for you to just like rack up a bunch of stolen bases. Maybe that's it. Maybe it's just that, you know.
A
Yeah, no, it's. It's great. I doubt the Mariners were banking on acquiring this speed demon, this base when they picked up, but it's a nice surprise.
B
Yeah, I think that they were probably like, hey, go hit some home runs, why don't you, please?
A
And yeah. Which he has. He's hit well. It's not even like he's, he's compensating for something. I guess he's been on base a lot, which has enabled some of the base dealing, but it's, it's not like he's us slumping and has suddenly decided, oh, I have to convert myself into a base stealer so I can contribute. Offensively, he's doing just fine, but firing on all cylinders, cylinders we didn't know he had.
B
Yeah. Which is good because, like, clearly, AO Heniosaurus is washed. He has a negative 2 WRC plus in 10 whole games. My God. He does have a home run, though. That's nice. It does.
A
It does remind you how much of base stealing is just voluntary, though. It's just about your will. It's just about deciding whether you want to go or not. Because how many times have we seen that? It's like with Ohtani last season, mid season, just turning on the afterburners and just deciding, yeah, I'm gonna go 50, 50 this year. Why not? I'm not remotely on pace for that, but if I set my mind to it, then sure, no problem. And, you know, it's just. It's all about whether you want to risk the injury and the wear and tear and. And obviously the outs on the bases and everything, but a lot of guys could get away with running more than they do, and there's just not as much of a premium placed on it, even in this era where obviously base stealing is. Is up because of the rules changes. But even so, like, you can just set your mind to it and do it, which is. It's fairly rare at this level of sports, like, where you can't just set your mind to, we were just joking about. The Rockies should just decide to be better at baseball.
B
Well, you can't play better at baseball.
A
Yeah. You can't do that in most facets of the sport. But base stealing is one where even if you don't have speed, then you can just say, yeah, I could probably get away with this here. And then you do until people catch on and until suddenly that's in the scouting report, and then maybe you get burned for it.
B
It's a nice reminder, you know, speed is an important component to base stealing. It's not like that doesn't matter, but I think that guys who are good base stealers, like, actually good base stealers, not just like opportunistic Josh Naylor. Base stealers often don't get, to my mind, sufficient credit for the part of it that is the decision making, being good. Right. Like, you can be fast and be a doofus on the base paths. Right. You might be able to mask some of your doofusness, but you're not going to be able to do that for everything. And So I, I want to use Josh Naylor being able to be opportunistic and like have a good sense of who he's running against and sort of exploiting guys not thinking he is going to go really is an opportunity to praise the base stealers who are far more prolific at it because I think that it gets underestimated as a skill. We tend to maybe put a little too much emphasis on the athleticism piece, which to be clear, is very important and you're not gonna have an amazing, amazing base dealing season without it. But like they're thinking about it too. So that's all I have to say about that.
A
Okay. I have a trio of Padres observations to close on the first Luis Arise update. His strikeout rate is if anything lower than the last time we talked about it. I wanna say it was 2.7% last time. Now it's 2.6%. It feels frozen to me every time I look at his page. I have to refresh because the strikeout rate is, it's always there right around 3%. Below 3%, I guess, because he strikes out so rarely, just, it doesn't move that much. But he's at a 12k percentage plus. So his strikeout rate relative to the league, which I, I think is certainly still in the running for real history, which I discussed at some length earlier in the season. So that has not changed. This is not a regression sort of situation or not really. It's. It's kind of just his true talent, for better or worse. However, he is batting.292 and on some level the traditionalist box score stats, back of the baseball card stats. Old soul in me just wants Luis to arise to hit.300. I, I want that to happen. It just.
B
Yeah.
A
I mean, partly it's just because he's a fun, entertaining player and he's just not very valuable if he's not hitting.300. Because that's his calling card. And it's partly, you know, we're living in the era of low batting averages or the latest era of low batting averages. And they're just. There aren't a lot. Of. 300 hitters out there. There are just a few in the National League. I think it's. Will Smith is qualified, I think, and then Xavier Edwards and Freddie Freeman. So it's like you're.
B
Yeah.
A
If luis arise can't bat.300, then no one can. Or maybe Freddie Freeman can, but. But not many other players.
B
No one can.
A
Yeah. So I just want him to do that. I mean, I wanted him to continue to rack up batting titles and keep winning them with different teams every year. But failing that, you know, I just like to get him up above that round number, and I think he can. There's certainly time for him to do that.
B
I have confidence in him. I want him to hit above.300 and be valuable so that. It's so weird. He would probably resent this, but so that we don't have to talk about him at all. Because it feels like every time, not you and I, we do it in a way that's so fun and entertaining. But often I find the conversation around him to be sort of frustrating, and I can't account for why we have to keep having it in the frustrating way. You know, we could.
A
He's divisive. He should be unifying. He should bring us together.
B
Yeah, he should bring us together. You know, do it together. Yeah.
A
Well, Luisa Rice's teammate Manny Machado attempted a hidden ball trick, which is one of our beats every now and then.
B
Oh, yeah?
A
Yeah. And they're so rare that we haven't even bantered about one recently. But Machado tried one and. And it did not go well. So he did not complete or pull off the trick. I'll just read from the AP story here. Padres third baseman Manny Machado tried a hidden ball trick against the Boston Red Sox and it ended up costing San Diego at least one run, sadly.
B
So he like, really didn't pull off a hidden ball trick is what you're saying.
A
It backfired with Jiren Duran on third base and won out in the third inning. Machado still had the ball after Alex Bregman was caught in a rundown on the previous play with reliever Wandi Peralta on the rubber, Machado tagged Duran near the bag. Duran pointed to the mound and third base umpire Scott Berry called a Bach, scoring Duran to give Boston a 2 to 1 lead. Trevor Story moved from second to third. By rule, the pitcher cannot be on the rubber for a hidden ball trick to be legal. If another player tags a runner while the pitcher is standing on her straddling the rubber, runner, the rubber straddling the runner would be different. Straddling the rubber. Man. Straddling the rubber. What a phrase.
B
What a phrase indeed.
A
Really?
B
Goodness me.
A
Everyone knows, of course, what a Bach is and immediately recognizes all different varieties.
B
100% of the time.
A
Box. Yes, of course. Goes without saying. I am always impressed by the presence of mind of players in these rare situations when sometimes they. They know and immediately pull. Like, how is he even aware like he's, he's on third base and I mean, I guess he's watching Peralta because, you know, he's not wanting to stray too far from the bag and so he realizes that. But it's, it's not like Jiren Duran was probably the subject of a lot of hidden Baltric attempts lately.
B
Right.
A
So, you know, it's something I think that these guys like, they know that situation. It's, it's the fundamentals, really. It's just the moderate players, excellent grasp of the fundamentals, as everyone says. Mike Schilt Padres MANAGER said, I thought it was a great baseball play. I'll take some responsibility. We want to work on everything that can possibly happen in spring training. It's my miss that we didn't. So he's blaming himself that the Padres didn't practice the hidden ball trick more. You just can't be on the rubber when that happens. But Manny's IQ shows up again. Just something we didn't work on. He was on the rubber, but he had him. So he was fooled. Although I guess you could say he was fooled because Peralta was still on the rubber and thus he didn't consider himself in jeopardy. Perhaps if you want to give Duran some credit there. So I don't know who's, whose fault that is. I, I guess it's Peralta's fault for not realizing and stepping off the rubber. More so than Machado not realizing that Peralta had not removed himself from the rubber. But one way or another, I mean, I'm happy to see the tradition stay alive and someone at least is trying to blow on those hidden Baltric embers and fan them back into flames.
B
Yeah. Although hopefully not while they're straddling the runner.
A
I guess not. And final Padres related story has to do with pitch tipping. So there was a pitch tipping story surrounding Robert Suarez of the Padres and this sort of went mini viral on social media because caught on the Padres broadcast was a Red Sox coach holding an iPad that had side by side images of Suarez. And one side showed Suarez, the Padres closer in his pre pitch setup before a fastball and then the other side showed him in his pre pitch setup before a change up, up. And I guess in the the latter image before the changeup, a little more of Suarez's right hand was visible from the center field camera suggesting that perhaps he was tipping the change up. And so there was a blown save and there was a, a walk off and Reuben Niebla, the Padres pitching coach, said that he got 36 direct messages about this that everyone was writing to him and it was a big deal. And he said, but it's like, yeah, we already know. And it says Suarez might have been tipping pitches two nights earlier. Happy to have pitch tipping stories instead of pitch fixing stories. Much more.
B
None of that.
A
Yeah, much more wholesome. And it's not clear that the Red Sox took advantage of this, but evidently Niebla's claiming at least that the Padres had been aware of this, that they've been working with Suarez the whole year, that they told him, this is what you do when you tip pitches and trying to correct that tendency in him, but that sometimes when you're in the thick of things, you forget and you fall back into those old habits. So he's essentially saying, yeah, we know. And I wondered, in this situation, would you bluff, Would you pretend to know so as not to seem outclassed by your opponent or that you've been outscouted somehow? Because in theory, you should know your guys better than the other team should know your guys. You see them much more. This is very strictly in your purview. If you're the pitching coach and your pitcher is tipping pitches, that's kind of on you. Right. So, I mean, who's going to know, I guess, other than the pitcher involved, if you're just blustering in and pretending to have known of it? Yeah, we have this under control. Yeah, yeah, we know all about the pitch tipping.
B
You would want to say you knew regardless of whether or not you actually did, because then you can claim that you've remedied whatever the problem was. Right. That there's been a proactive addressing of it. So I think. I think that you would probably fib a little bit. I think you'd probably fib.
A
Yeah, I, I'd say so. And, and swear. Whereas he also sounded unfazed by this, that he thought that his team also would have picked up on this if it was happening, and that they would have told him after the game and said, make this adjustment. Although really during the game, I guess would be better. But then again, you don't want to get in a guy's head. This comes up sometimes, like, you know, wasn't there a story about this with. Was it with Cal and the Mariners and someone on the Mariners was maybe tipping or tipping or.
B
Yeah, I think it might have been Munoz. Against the Yankees.
A
Against the Yankees, I want to say. Right. And they. They seem to have picked up the signs or they were. They were maybe stealing signs or sharing them from Second base or something. And there was this. And Cal went out to talk to him, but, like, part of it was just, well, I don't want to, like, make him overly conscious of this while we're just trying to get out of this jam right now.
B
So I don't think you say in the moment, hey, you're. You're tipping, I think you might say. I mean, like, I imagine they were using pitchcom, but you might say like, oh, we're gonna mix it up a little bit or change your signs. If they were using signs for some reason, but I imagine they were using pitchcom, so he probably had to say, like, oh, I think they're on. Yeah, this pitch or whatever. You wouldn't say, hey, you're tipping in that moment. Or maybe you would, but if it were me, I'd be like, oh, my God, now I can't not tip.
A
Tip.
B
I must always tip. I tip in perpetuity. And that. That seems counterproductive.
A
Yeah. And Schilt about this. He basically said, well, we're living in a surveillance state. That was not a direct quote, but, oh, okay.
B
It was like.
A
It's like Big Brother is always watching, more or less. He said, okay, this is the real quote, which is not that different. We're in a society where no one can hide. I mean, just the technologies. Everything that's out there, it's being used, it's there. These guys are not machines, but machines are evaluating and overlaying and using artificial, Artificial intelligence and all the different things that take place. And it's something that clearly we monitor. We have internal awareness of it. We're looking at our side, the opponent's side. But then he said, and I'm wholeheartedly with him here, I think it's overblown. You can look at it and slow it down and you can take a picture of it. Go do it in front of 40,000 people in real time and with an athlete that's moving and see how successful you are. I do think there's people and there's teams and players that are good at it, but I also think that even if it's slightly there, it's really hard to pick up in live competition. And I, I agree. I've. I've always been a pitch tipping skeptic. I. I feel like this really fires up fans, imaginations. Because, yes, in theory, it's something that we can see. It's almost like when the banging scheme came out and you can go back and listen to the bangs, you can kind of convince yourself oh, look. Oh, they're, they're gesturing from second. Okay, what are they seeing? I can look at the footage footage and sometimes you seem to be able to pick something up but you never know for sure what exactly they're seeing or whether they're seeing anything because maybe they think they're seeing something but they're not actually and they're psyching themselves out or as Niebulla said, sometimes it's a deke that they're bluffing because they want to get in your head and force you to change something. And so they're just pretending to have picked up on something and it's just, it's really hard. Yeah. Even with and, and this is all legal and gamesmanship, although you know, players still, it ruffles feathers and guys get plunked for it every now and then. It's sort of a self policing thing. But it's not anything. You're going to be suspended for as long as you're not using real time technology that's connected to the Internet or something. But like, you know, teams, they I'm sure have models and they can run, you know, on the footage. Just have some kind of computer vision, machine learning sort of setup that can detect, detect these minute differences. But then. Yeah, is it going to be persistent? Can you actually pick up on that and process that in real time? Which is the same conversation we had about the science dealing because it's like, well, you're not used to, you're not accustomed to knowing what pitch is coming and so it seems like that should be a huge advantage. But maybe it actually throws you off your game. Maybe it's distracting because you're trying to take into account this extra information that you don't normally have. Maybe you over three think things. So I just, I'm sure that there have been cases where pitch tipping was decisive and pivotal and someone picked up on something at just the right moment and capitalized on it. But I think it's a bunch of hot air in most contexts.
B
Heard it here first. Hot air. Hot hair. Hot hair. Yeah, I can imagine. I think that it's one of those things where the instances where it makes a difference, it probably makes like an important difference. But those instances are spaced out amongst the times when they actually are able to like pick up a, pick up a sign or what have you. Like, I think there are times where they're like, we know it's coming and then they still swing through it. Like good execution is probably going to beat out and overcome foreknowledge of the pitch more often than not.
A
So, yeah, it's hard to hit Robert Suarez even if you know what he's pitching. And yeah, there's just so many distractions and some of the other cues that you're picking up on. And I'm just, just generally a skeptic. I think it's way overrated as a factor.
B
Sure.
A
I'll never know for sure. And there have always been players, coaches who are reputed to be just pitch tipping savants and could just have this superpower and you'd think that would just be immensely valuable. And, and whenever you read a story about this, it's like, it's kind of embarrassing. It's like the other team had better intel and your counter intelligence wasn't up to snuff. But I just, I think we make too much of it.
B
Yeah. I think that people like anything that reads as, like spycraft, you know, like, this is so cool. And I don't, I don't know about that.
A
So pitch tipping skeptics here at effectively Wild official podcast position, I think that.
B
We'Re pitch tipping realists more than anything else. Yeah. And there are, there are definitely cases where it has mattered and mattered a great deal and sometimes in like postseason situations. So I don't want to say that it can't, it doesn't ever matter. But I think that, that it's also. You're not doomed to tip in perpetuity is the other thing about it. Right. Like, once guys realize that they're doing it, they seem like they're pretty adept at course correcting on it. So. Yep, okay.
A
Yeah, not total pitch tipping truthers, but.
B
Just, you know, I try to avoid the truther thing just like wherever I can. It seems to lead to madness more often than not these days.
A
So just another patented measured take.
B
Yeah.
A
Okay. A couple of follow ups. Last time I did a little combined stat blast slash, Meet a major leaguer on the most productive Ivy League schools in the MLB draft era. Of course, listener Damon wrote in to note that Lou Gehrig went to Columbia, then Columbia College. But yes, that was before the 1965amateur draft cutoff that I imposed for that segment. However, a little bit of background on my findings from Patriots Patreon supporter Josh, who says some further context on Dartmouth's baseball program that may explain how they've produced so many big leaguers, because that was the takeaway that Dartmouth was the relative baseball powerhouse of the Ivy League. Their longtime head coach, Bob Whelan, who was at the helm from 1990 through his retirement this past season was a fixture at Stanford's annual summer Prospect camps, which other Ivy League schools weren't always invited to attend. Dartmouth then, stood out as an attractive alternative for top high school ballplayers interested in attending a quote unquote prestigious university who weren't quite PAC 1210 caliber recruits or wanted a college experience away from the West Coast. I recruited at these camps for a similarly selective D3 school for a handful of seasons and to be honest, was often frustrated by Dartmouth's presence. It seemed like every prospect I talked to already had Dartmouth on their list and had spoken to Coach Whalen so the guy knew what he was doing. When listening to the pod, I found myself shouting Dartmouth to no one as I listened to Meg try to guess which Ivy League school had produced the most MLB talent. Well, thank you, Josh. Always good to put the story with the stats and listener Greg writes in to say I am here with a pathetic, semi pedantic plea for mercy and grace from a Pirates fan. On more than one occasion, in the midst of praising the brewers and their success at making something out of nothings, Ben has commented on Quinn Priester's success with Milwaukee despite being a Pirates castoff. Happy as I am to see Priester's success, and sad as I am to see it come in a divisional foes uniform, I must set the record a little straight here. We traded Priester to Boston for a decent return, Nick York, albeit a return that we've since let sit in aaa. While the big league team continues to be truly horrible at the plate, it was Boston who then flipped him to Milwaukee half a season later for a return. I think fits more with the idea of Priester being a castoff. Anyway, we Pirates fans suffer enough at the hands of our ownership front office and on field product, in that order. So show mercy here and spread the word. Priester is a Red Sox cast off. All right, I'm gonna give it to you. Priester was a Pirates prospect who didn't pan out with the Pirates, but Boston castoff? Okay. Either way he's another win for Milwaukee and it's a win for us every time someone signs up to support the podcast on Patreon, which you can do by going to patreon.com effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and and get yourself access to some perks as have the following five listeners, Jason Frankel, Josh Yu, Kevin Linger, Eric Geraldo Gordon and Ethan Cheal. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, prioritized email answers, discounts on merch and ad, free fangraphs memberships, and so much more. Check out all the offerings@patreon.com effectivelywild if you if you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastamgraphs.com youm can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group@facebook.com group effectivelywild. You can find the effectively wild subreddit at r effectivelywild and you can check the show notes at Fan Graphs or the episode description description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with another episode soon. Talk to you then.
B
Show with three Arms.
Podcast by FanGraphs — Hosts: Meg Rowley and Ben Lindbergh
Date: August 13, 2025
In this episode, Meg and Ben offer their signature mix of statistical analysis and wry banter on the state of MLB in mid-August 2025. They discuss the cooling-off of early-season WAR leaderboards, scrutinize recent high-profile managerial comments, navigate league-wide trends (hot streaks/cold snaps, prospect debuts, and losing streaks), and end with a dive into pitch-tipping discourse. Notably, the episode features segments on Shohei Ohtani's performance and public criticism, veteran pitcher milestones and self-perception, the Brewers' hot run and alumni home run derby, surprise base-stealing exploits, and a skeptical take on the importance of pitch-tipping.
[00:32–04:47]
Memorable quote:
“It looks like they’re going to just have to settle for merely excellent, extremely valuable, remarkable seasons—and perhaps not the greatest of all time.” — Ben ([02:37])
[05:16–13:22]
Memorable exchange:
“Maybe even Shohei Ohtani needs a rebuke from his keeper every now and then.” — Ben ([11:19])
“If you’re a non-Ohtani Dodger, feeling some amount of relief or gratification at the notion that [everyone’s accountable].” — Meg ([11:38])
[15:23–27:16]
[28:04–36:37]
[38:34–40:27]
[40:27–46:17]
[49:44–62:50]
[62:56–67:45]
[69:18–84:14]
As always, Meg and Ben maintain an engaging, thoughtful, and whimsical tone—with careful baseball analysis, inside jokes (“pocket pancakes,” alumni derbies), and a spirit of measured (sometimes self-deprecating) realism. They weigh the narratives that capture fans’ imaginations against the realities of data and day-to-day gameplay. The episode’s title is a tongue-in-cheek reference to pitch tipping, which is discussed with their trademark skepticism and nuance.
Summary prepared for listeners seeking a comprehensive, context-rich recap of Effectively Wild Episode 2360.