Effectively Wild Episode 2361: The Fleeting Tie

August 15, 2025
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer) and Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)

Episode Overview

In this conversational and stats-driven episode, Ben and Meg dive into the nuanced, sometimes fleeting nature of great pitching stats, the challenges of maintaining elite performances, and the oddities of official baseball record-keeping and fandom psychology. The episode’s through-line is "fleeting ties," both in box scores and in the balance of franchise narratives, touching on player comebacks, organizational stewardship, and the ever-shifting metrics of greatness in modern baseball.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Fleeting ERA & Trevor Rogers' Resurgence (00:34–07:22)

• Ben opens by lamenting the jinx he and Meg apparently put on Nathan Eovaldi's low ERA, segueing to marveling at Trevor Rogers' similarly stingy numbers. Rogers’ steady excellence, marked by a minuscule ERA, is discussed in detail.
  • Ben (00:34): “When your ERA is that low at the beginning of the day, it is very difficult to make it go lower… but it's pretty easy to have it go higher, as Nathan Eovaldi found out.”
• Despite consistently strong starts, Rogers’ ERA barely budges due to how averages work when so low. Discussion covers how a great start barely impacts ERA at this point into the season.
• Meg celebrates Rogers as a reclamation story for the Orioles, defying expectations that he was finished after a bumpy stretch in Baltimore and Miami.
  • Meg (03:33): “The book on Rogers was sort of... that it was never going to get better again... For him to be in this position, albeit over like, you know, 69, nice, innings... we can look at his 2025 campaign and say, okay, like, keep going buddy and let's see how you trend.”

Notable Quote

• Meg (04:14): “…only 69. Right.”
• Ben (04:15): “And a third.”
• Meg (04:16): “And a third. Don't forget the third.”

2. The Prospect Trade Aftermath & Team-Building Philosophy (05:04–07:22)

• Discussion of the emotional baggage and prospect valuation in trades, referencing the Kyle Stowers for Rogers deal and how it looked like a loss before Rogers’ resurgence.
• Importance of a single starting pitching success story for the Orioles’ hopes and fan morale.
  • Meg (05:38): “It's a good story in a part of the roster where I think fans… are just, like, really desperate for one.”

3. Pitching WAR Race & The Cy Young Discourse (07:22–11:45)

• Ben notes that Rogers’ value on a rate basis is elite, despite fewer innings. Compares him to Matthew Boyd and others on the WAR leaderboard.
  • Ben (07:22): “He has pitched so well on a rate basis that even though he's made fewer starts… he is right up there because his starts have been so excellent.”
• Playful callback to an Orioles fan’s Trevor Rogers tattoo. Meg and Ben debate whether certain relievers or starters should ever be "butt cheek worthy.”
• Consideration of the Cy Young race, especially Christopher Sanchez, Paul Skenes, and veteran Zach Wheeler—whose legacy, late career, and Cy Young “snub” possibilities are discussed.
  • Ben (11:45): “It does seem like there should be some kind of career achievement award… Wheeler's been the best pitcher over a several season span at this point. That's in a way more impressive… than just having been the best in one season.”
  • Meg (13:02): “There's the Hall of Fame of it all and... what do you do with him given his late start?... their careers conclude and you go, they really never won a Cy Young?... And I don’t like that conversation…”

Notable Quote

• Meg (13:02): “But mostly it's just like there are guys where their careers conclude and you go, they really never won a Cy Young?”

4. Career Achievement, Honorary Awards, & Cinema Parallels (15:11–17:48)

• The hosts riff about how sports should borrow from the Academy Awards and create “career achievement” designations for players who were generationally great but not always recognized in single seasons.
  • Ben (17:14): “It’s not just one outlier performance... a Career Achievement Award... can't be a fluke because that's just a bigger sample.”
• Discussion sidetracks to Samuel L. Jackson, Clint Eastwood, and the vagaries of what it means to be honored in your field.

5. Ohtani’s Outing, Defensive Woes, and Splitter Nostalgia (18:50–25:21)

• Review of a recent Shohei Ohtani pitching and hitting performance, with particular focus on the Dodgers’ defensive issues (Téoscar Hernández’s lack of range is lampooned).
  • Ben (19:10): “It’s like he gets farther away… if there’s a ball that is hit out in his vicinity, and you’re thinking, will it fall? The answer is yes, if Teoscar Hernández is out there.”
  • Meg (20:19): “If Teoscar Hernández was the T. Rex in Jurassic Park, no one have to worry. They’d just be like, we’re just gonna outrun this T. Rex.”
• Nostalgia for Ohtani’s once-signature splitter, now rarely thrown.
  • Ben (20:58): “Every now and then he throws one of those, and I’m like, oh, right, he throws the splitter. He doesn’t even throw it that much anymore.”

6. Annoyances: Ballpark Ads & Broadcast Tech (23:17–25:21)

• Ben rants about intrusive, glitchy digital advertising behind home plate, especially in October. Meg speculates on why “irritating your consumers” persists in the ad world.
  • Ben (23:17): “It is still just as distracting to me… at least make the advertising a little less intrusive.”
  • Meg (24:49): “We’ve done all these Marvel movies, and we can’t have better green screen on a baseball broadcast?”

7. Team Ownership Drama: The Minnesota Twins' Non-Sale (28:32–42:10)

• The Twins’ front office reverses course on completing a team sale; instead they’ll bring in minority partners with no path to majority ownership. Meg and Ben dissect how this affects fans' optimism, the business of baseball, and broader trends in team ownership.
  • Ben (29:35): “The pollads have decided that actually, just kidding, faked you out, psych, we will be holding on to the Minnesota Twins, and Twins fans are beside themselves...”
  • Ben (32:35): “This is the third time... Nationals, Angels, and now the Twins do this fake out... is this a pattern?”
• Discussion about whether baseball “asset class” is still attractive, and how TV rights and debt interact with these decisions.
• Debate over the long-term viability and stewardship of small/mid-market teams, and why Manfred may or may not intervene.
  • Meg (39:07): “There’s a big difference between less money and no money. Right. And I think that there’s this sort of catastrophizing that goes on... it doesn’t mean it’ll be a bad business.”
  • Meg (41:41): “It is interesting where just some of the language that [Manfred] deploys publicly for some teams versus others at similar sort of checkpoints… it’s interesting. And I wonder if some of that rhetoric might change as it pertains to the Twins going forward…”

8. Listener Mailbag: Quirks of Baseball Officiating and Fandom (42:10–101:45)

a. Check-Swing Appeal Gusto (43:22–49:43)

• Does the home plate ump's level of drama influence how the base ump rules on check swings? Discussion explores umpire manuals, performance, and projecting confidence.
  • Ben (47:06): “MLB umpires are expected to increase the assertiveness of their call…as the play becomes closer or more exciting.”
  • Meg (48:08): “You wanna match tone... we are ever increasingly... kind of vibes-based.”

b. Blackouts, Media Access, and Changing Fandom (52:04–59:16)

• What happens to regional baseball fandom if MLB.TV removes blackouts? Will people follow more teams, or is the pull of 162 games still too much?
  • Meg (52:53): “I think you would have more... folks who are interested in a broader swath of teams... But I still think there’s... really devoted fandom.”
  • Ben (56:18): “You just don’t really need to go outside of that to get your fix of baseball... that ship has sailed for baseball to be embraced the way that football is now on a national level...”

c. Streak Freezes – "Duolingo vs. DiMaggio" (59:33–66:13)

• Listener Dan asks if baseball streaks should have “mulligans” like Duolingo’s “streak freeze.” Both hosts respond with mock horror at the notion.
  • Ben (61:02): “The whole purpose of a streak is that you don’t get a day off. You don’t get to miss one. That’s what makes it so impressive.”
  • Meg (62:23): “Part of the instinct… is that there is a, I think, correct perception that like, sometimes the maintenance of a streak was… to the detriment of the player… but it’s not a streak if you take a day off.”

d. Red Sox vs. Yankees Fandom Pain (66:30–73:54)

• Listener Eli asks: Which is worse, suffering through Mookie Betts/Devers trades, or enduring Aaron Boone? Verdict: Trading Mookie is worse—by far. Ben and Meg reassure both sides they’ll ultimately be fine.
  • Meg (70:04): “It is very obvious that trading Mookie is the worst thing... managers come and go, franchise icons much harder to replace.”
  • Ben (72:42): “During Aaron Boone’s tenure, the Yankees have the third most wins in baseball... they won a pennant last year... Come on. Please come on.”

e. The Frame Rate of Tied Games (73:54–85:09)

• How “continuous” is the baseball score—when is a game technically tied during multi-run plays? Detailed, playful debate about pedantic possibilities.
  • Ben (80:56): “Technically... for a moment there, you’re in this liminal phase. It is a tie game.”
  • Meg (83:09): “That’s technically true, but technically correct... but meaningfully goofy.”

f. The Definition of "Scattered" Hits (85:27–87:55)

• What counts as a pitcher “scattering” hits? Ben and Meg agree: It usually refers to giving up many hits but few runs, not necessarily a shutout.

g. Walk-Offs vs. "Walk-Aways" (87:58–89:47)

• Listener suggests the term “walk-away win” for the visiting team scoring go-ahead runs in the last inning. Meg is skeptical of the term’s necessity or clarity.

h. The Effect of Blowout Games on Team Perceptions (90:14–94:28)

• Will one mega-run-differential series distort memory/perception of the Blue Jays’ season? Both agree that fans overemphasize or forget based on anxiety or stakes.

i. Kyle Schwarber vs. Adam Dunn (95:03–101:45)

• Schwarber compared to Dunn—are they perceived differently due to team context and baseball’s era? Yes: Dunn played in obscurity and pre-playoff, Schwaber is a postseason hero.
  • Ben (98:51): “I believe he [Dunn] never played a postseason game. So it’s very different from Schwarber. I think that’s a big part of it.”

9. Gilded Age Sidebars & Podcast Hijinks

• Throughout, Meg struggles not to indulge in side-conversations about the TV show “Gilded Age”, including a running “Train Daddy” bit and whether “oaf” is a fair baseball archetype.
• Ben gamely plays along, gently nudging the conversation to stats and fan queries while letting digressions breathe.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On ERA:
  Ben (02:39): “When your ERA is that low at the beginning of the day, it is very difficult to make it go lower."
• On Rogers’ Comeback:
  Meg (04:16): “Don’t forget the third [of an inning].”
• On Cy Young Legacies:
  Meg (13:02): "I don’t like that conversation because then it ends up being about like slights and did the voters get it wrong... and they deserve it to be about their career."
• On Umpires, Vibes, and Check Swings:
  Meg (48:08): “We find tonal shift that is inexplicable based on circumstance to be discordant and uncomfortable... Their job as an umpire... is to instill confidence.”
• On Blackouts and Fandom:
  Ben (56:18): "That ship has sailed for baseball to be embraced the way that football is on a national level."
• On Streak Freezes:
  Ben (61:02): “The whole purpose of a streak is that you don’t get a day off. That’s what makes it so impressive.”
• On Red Sox/Yankees Marital Strife:
  Meg (70:04): “It is very obvious that trading Mookie is the worst thing.”
• On Pedantry & Tied Games:
  Ben (82:04): “If the question is... the refresh rate, like how quickly does the image update... I think it happens when that player crosses home plate.”
• On “Walk-Away” Wins:
  Meg (89:47): “You’re not really walking away just yet, are you? You know, you gotta go back out there to, like, try to hold your lead.”

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 00:34 – Low ERA, Trevor Rogers’ resurgence
• 05:04 – Prospect trades, Orioles’ roster stories
• 07:22 – WAR leaderboard, Cy Young, career achievement awards
• 18:50 – Ohtani’s outing, Dodgers’ defensive struggles
• 23:17 – Digital ballpark ads, green screens
• 28:32 – Minnesota Twins' non-sale, owner trends
• 42:10 – Listener mailbag: umpire appeals, fandom, media, streaks
• 66:30 – Yankees vs. Red Sox pain
• 73:54 – Scoring ties, score frame-rate pedantry
• 87:58 – Walk-off vs. "walk-away" win terminology
• 90:14 – One blowout series & team perception
• 95:03 – Schwarber vs. Dunn, context & legacy

Episode Tone & Style

As ever, the episode is lighthearted, deeply knowledgeable, and self-effacingly nerdy. Ben and Meg marry earnest stat analysis with the kind of digressive, affectionate banter that Effectively Wild is known for. The episode is laced with moments of shared exasperation at baseball’s quirks and the foibles of fandom, as well as playful introspection about what it means to care, narrate, and remember in sports.

Summary prepared for Effectively Wild fans and newcomers alike: if you missed the episode, you'll come away from this summary with a thorough understanding of the major themes, debates, and tangents that make this pod a perennial favorite for baseball aficionados and statheads.