Effectively Wild Episode 2367: Good Takes

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (A), Meg Rowley (B)
Date: August 28, 2025
Theme: Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary – focused here on veteran pitcher resurgence, the value (and invisibility) of bulk pitching, minor league attendance trends, SABR paradoxes about strikeouts and swings, and candid thoughts on team dynamics and incentives.

Episode Overview

This episode weaves together insightful statistical discussion and philosophical musings about the evolving baseball landscape. Ben and Meg revisit the enduring careers of legendary pitchers, unpack the unexpected success of journeymen like Patrick Corbin, explore why certain high-value MLB players are forgotten, and scrutinize both the tangible and intangible factors driving down minor league attendance. The hosts further debate paradoxes surrounding strikeouts and batter approaches, featuring lively banter about player incentives and candid comments—particularly Royce Lewis's rare openness about stats and salary negotiations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Old Guys" Are Back: Scherzer, Verlander & Kershaw's Resurgence

[00:45 – 06:00]

• Statistical Bounce-Back: The trio (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer) collectively amassed a mere 1.5 fWAR in 172 IP through late July, but have clipped off 2.5 fWAR in just 99 IP over the past month, with Verlander and Kershaw both among MLB’s top 15 in that span.

  “Over the past month ... actually been pretty good. In fact, Verlander has been a top 10 pitcher in baseball by Fangraphs WAR.” – Ben [01:29]

• Retirement Speculation: Meg wonders if a strong finish motivates retirement, satisfying a “final note,” especially if October is fruitful. Ben counters with the “competitive fire” argument, referencing Verlander’s drive to chase 300 wins.

• Old Guy Group Chat?: Meg jokes about the trio's group chat. Ben notes Kershaw is actually the junior in age, despite his “old guy” aura.

2. The Unexpected Value of Patrick Corbin

[06:04 – 11:33]

• Corbin’s Durability: After years of struggles, Corbin leads the battered Rangers staff by simply staying healthy—a skill unto itself amid widespread injuries.

  “He’s the Energizer starter. And now he trails only Jacob deGrom.” – Ben [07:39]

• Volume vs. Quality: Discussion on how bulk innings, even at below-average performance, hold value. Ben notes Corbin’s “about 1.5 fWAR,” fulfilling the emergency role Rangers envisioned.

  “Sometimes showing up to work is valuable even if the output on that particular day isn’t the best it possibly could be.” – Meg [11:17]

3. Minor League Rotations and Roster Opportunism (Andrew Heaney Example)

[11:33 – 15:46]

• Heaney DFA’d by Pirates: Once thriving, he’s been “the worst pitcher in baseball by fWAR since June 19.” Pirates did, however, allow him to reach an incentives threshold for a small bonus—unlike previous cheapness involving Rowdy Tellez.

  “At least they didn’t DFA him at 119 and 2/3 innings ... Baby steps for Bob Nutting.” – Ben [13:50]

• Teams Buying Goodwill: Meg praises MLB teams for occasionally paying bonuses not technically earned, arguing it’s “an inexpensive ... move toward being perceived as a club where ... a guy might want to come spend some time.” [15:39]

4. Most Loved (and Loathed) MLB Owners

[16:33 – 21:15]

• Citing a “sentiment analysis” of team subreddits for fan attitudes toward owners.

  • Most hated: John Fisher (A’s), Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox), etc.
  • Most appreciated: Surprisingly, Tom Ricketts (Cubs) makes the list.

• Ben and Meg discuss how emotions like anger and disgust can morph into acceptance/indifference—a bad sign for fan engagement.

  “Maybe there wasn’t more negative sentiment because they pushed through that stage of grief, and now they are just in acceptance ...” – Meg [17:59]

5. The Mystery of Forgotten Greats (Steve Rogers Case Study)

[21:15 – 37:42]

• Trivia Prompt: Ben highlights the invisibility of Expos great Steve Rogers, an all-time franchise leader in wins (“just blurry ... inherently anonymous” [27:56]), alongside Dennis Martinez and Stephen Strasburg.

  “Steve Rogers might be one of the most forgettable 150 game winners in MLB history. Even now ... I am drawing a blank.” – Ben citing Sad Trombone [26:52]

• Factors in Forgettability: Ben and Meg attribute this to team (Expos), lack of postseason, non-distinctive name, and absence of a “nerd hook” like “Captain America,” which wouldn’t have made sense for a Canadian team.

6. Player Candidness & Economics: Royce Lewis’s Stat-Selfishness

[37:58 – 46:54]

• Royce Lewis on Adjustments: Lewis openly admits hesitance to tweak his swing mid-season, not wanting to “jeopardize his stats” and future earnings in arbitration. Ben and Meg both note this honesty is rare—most players frame answers in more team-first terms.

  “I don’t want to put any of those stats in jeopardy. I’m trying to do what’s best as fast as possible, but feeling like I’ve been on an island ...” – Royce Lewis (via The Athletic) [39:26]

  “It is a little odd, though, right? Because ... Royce, you have an 81 WRC+ ... what do you have to lose? ... But if you do, then maybe you just wait until ... offseason ...” – Meg [41:26–42:26]

• Team Commitment is a Two-Way Street: Ben suggests owners’ lack of investment or “tear down” strategies can drive players to put themselves first.

7. Strikeout Paradoxes & Selectivity: Batters, Teams, and Analytical Correctives

[53:17 – 64:06]

• Strikeout Rate Down: MLB-wide K% (22%) is the lowest since 2017. Ben posits the decrease might be due to teams selecting and promoting more contact-prone players—a predictive marker for MLB success (per Down on the Farm/Oyster Analytics).

  “In prospect land, being able to get bat on ball remains a really important indicator of future success ...” – Ben, paraphrasing Down on the Farm [61:12]

• Jonah Tong Watch: Mets prospect debuts with superlative 40% K-rate in the minors, dwarfing previous records by starters.

• Swing/Take Paradox:

  • Statcast and leading analysts have shown almost all hitters have positive “take” value and negative swing value, even in the heart of the zone. Yet, swing rates are up versus 2008.

  “So when a hitter takes ... it's good for the hitter. When a hitter swings ... it’s bad for hitters ... but it doesn’t seem as if any teams have done that [reduced swing rates].” – Ben [72:29, 73:57]

  • Meg highlights the challenge: even if analytics say to swing less, getting hitters to “not swing” is psychologically (and developmentally) difficult.

8. Diminishing Minor League Attendance

[80:14 – 90:39]

• Major Decline in Fans: Post-contraction/2021, MiLB attendance is down 12 million (from 41.5M in 2019 to <30M projected in 2025)—not just because of fewer teams, but fewer fans per game per team.

  “It’s a double whammy. It’s fewer teams and evidently it’s less hot ticket for the remaining teams ... I’m somewhat dismayed ...” – Ben [82:51]

• Potential Factors:

  • Community disengagement after contraction
  • Smaller towns facing higher living costs → less discretionary spending for local games
  • Diminished prospect hype (less time in minors for top talent)
  • Teams making more per fan, possibly pricing out some attendees

9. The Myth of Hot Streaks, Updates on Brian Wu’s Streak (and Show Ephemera)

[90:40 – End]

• Ben shouts out Ben Clemens’s research, showing “hot hand” or “streakiness” in MLB hitters is mostly a mirage—hot and cold streaks persist only very slightly.
• Brian Wu’s notable streak snapped at 25; “all streaks must come to an end.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Sometimes showing up to work is valuable even if the output on that particular day isn’t the best ...” — Meg [11:17]
• “Steve Rogers might be one of the most forgettable 150 game winners in MLB history. Even now ... I am drawing a blank.” — Sad Trombone quoted by Ben [26:52]
• “It is a little odd, though, right? Because, Royce, you have an 81 WRC+ ... what do you have to lose?” — Meg [41:26]
• “Teams have adjusted their ticket models, concessions ... to make more money per fan in many cases ... Are there fewer fans because they’re making more money per fan?” — Ben [87:32]
• “There’s an incentive there to try to drill that into hitters ... we’ve crunched the numbers and we’ve concluded that you should not swing.” — Ben [76:19]
• “That can’t be good for the long term future of baseball.” — Ben on minor league attendance [88:44]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:45 – 06:00: Vintage pitcher trio: Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer Resurgence, Retirement?
• 06:00 – 11:33: Patrick Corbin’s surprising value (“bulk innings” debate)
• 11:33 – 15:46: Andrew Heaney DFA; bonuses and team-player PR strategy
• 16:33 – 21:15: Most loved/hated owners; fan emotions over time
• 21:15 – 37:42: Forgotten greats: Steve Rogers/Expos; why good players are forgotten
• 37:58 – 46:54: Royce Lewis candor about stat protection, arbitration mindset
• 53:17 – 64:06: Falling strikeout rate, prospect selection, the paradox of swinging
• 64:35 – 77:39: Jonah Tong, developments in hitter selectivity, and why teams aren't trying "don’t swing" strategies
• 80:14 – 90:39: Minor league attendance crisis: hypotheses and implications
• 90:40 – End: Hot streaks myth, Brian Wu update, closing thoughts

Tone & Language

• Analytical, stats-driven, wryly self-aware
• Playful asides (Apple TV “Foundation,” “old guy group chat,” trivia yips, Steve Rogers/Captain America banter)
• Honest and unvarnished reflections on player incentives, economy, fandom

Summary Takeaway

This episode is quintessential Effectively Wild: deeply nerdy, humane, and funny. It’s a survey of modern baseball’s shifting terrain—both statistically and socially—blending data with broader questions of legacy, economics, behavioral psychology, and the joy (and heartbreak) of baseball, both professional and minor league.