Effectively Wild Episode 2379: October Came Early

Date: September 25, 2025
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)

Overview

In this episode, Ben and Meg revel in an electric September night of Major League Baseball that felt like the postseason had arrived early. They dissect wild comebacks, bullpen meltdowns, the anatomy of a “Cleveland Guardians inning,” the emotional fallout of a scary hit-by-pitch injury, and the shifting balance of power across the leagues. The hosts also dive into granular rules details, debate the impact and future of the automated strike zone challenge system, and respond to a wide-ranging collection of listener questions about baseball stats and strategy.

Night of Chaos: Tuesday’s Games Felt Like October

Key Points & Insights

• Both hosts agree the prior night was a “wonderful night of baseball,” with tight games and raucous comebacks reminiscent of playoff atmosphere.
• Social Media Fandom: Baseball conversations on Bluesky and elsewhere gave a sense of everyone watching together, a feeling both hosts miss since the heyday of “Baseball Twitter” ([01:37] Meg).
• Tigers–Guardians Centerstage: The high-intensity of the Tigers-Guardians game particularly captivated baseball fans online.

Guardians vs. Tigers: Anatomy of a Cleveland Inning ([03:20]-[04:56])

The David Fry Injury

• Incident: Guardians utility man David Fry was hit in the face by a 99 mph fastball from Tarek Skubal during a bunt attempt.
• Aftermath: Although Fry suffered facial fractures, he avoided surgery but will miss the playoffs if the Guardians advance.
• Emotional Fallout: Skubal was clearly rattled, affecting both his performance and the inning’s outcome.
• Pitcher’s Responsibility:

  “With great power comes great responsibility. That would unsettle me if I did something like that…that could be career-threatening, life-threatening.”
  — Ben ([05:16])

• Pitcher Empathy: Skubal’s visit to Fry in the hospital was praised as a humane and meaningful gesture uncommon among pitchers.

The Most Guardians-Inning Possible

• Guardians scored three runs on bunts, infield hits, a wild pitch, and a balk—without hitting a ball into the outfield.
• “It was just a microcosm of the Cleveland Guardians experience.” — Ben ([04:56])

Bullpens & Playoff Prospects

• Guardians Pen: Deep and dominant, especially in contrast to Detroit's.
• Tigers: Their bullpen issues threaten their playoff hopes and their narrative if they collapse out of the division lead.

Collapse Narratives: Tigers, Mets, and October Perceptions ([09:34]-[13:10])

• If the Tigers blow their division but still make the Wild Card and succeed, it may relieve the sting of collapse.
• “If they lose the Central but still win a wild card…they’re saved the worst of it, probably...” — Ben ([09:34])
• Narrative neatness compels fans and media to link collapses to prior years:

  “We love a good narrative. Right?” — Meg ([11:45])

• Comparison to the Mets’ struggles: Mets' fall feels less embarrassing due to lack of a strong preseason expectation or division lead.

Pitching Problems: Dodgers’ Bullpen Fire & NL West Drama ([13:10]-[17:41])

• Dodgers Bulllpen: “Absolute tire fire”—the strongest contrast to their 2024 championship team.
• Dodgers now have too many starters, leading to speculation on using Kershaw and Sasaki as bullpen pieces in the postseason.
• “It’s fascinating...just dregs of a rotation, just guys who are barely healthy…and they win the World Series…Then this year…they just like get swept or something.” — Ben ([17:41])
• Shohei Ohtani’s first MLB playoff start will be a major storyline.
• The National League playoff bubble is full of vulnerability due to weak bullpens across contenders.

Playoff Picture & Fan Emotions ([20:00]-[21:23])

• Wild Card Standings: Constant churn; teams can go from missing out to a bye within days, highlighting extremely tight races.

  “You can go from missing the playoffs to being the top seed…in a matter of days.” — Ben ([21:23])

• Meg admits she’s been a nervous Mariners fan, even needing a gin cocktail break during a tense loss-to-win swing.

Dodgers’ Bullpen Solutions ([21:50]-[22:19])

• Offbeat suggestion: demote all failed late-inning relievers and reconstruct the bullpen from surplus starters and reliable middle-inning arms.
• "Just overturn the bullpen pecking order because it's just not working." — Ben ([21:51])

Introducing the Challenge System for Balls & Strikes ([23:28]-[31:07])

Industry Reaction:

• Split Expert Opinion:
  • Joe Sheehan (newsletter): Critical, calls the challenge system a "half measure" that avoids real reform.
  • Craig Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus): Loves the compromise, seeing it as adding strategy while appeasing both tradition and technology advocates.
• Quote Recap:

  “Perhaps this is the mythical compromise where neither camp is happy and it’s also for the best…” — Craig Goldstein (as paraphrased by Ben) ([25:34]) “My immediate reaction is that this is a half measure that won’t have much effect…” — Joe Sheehan ([24:24])

Meg and Ben’s Take:

• Both hosts largely favor the challenge system, arguing it preserves tension, allows for strategy, and keeps the “art of framing” alive.
• Key Quote:

  “I think it introduces strategy in a way that technology often removes…less bothered that there will still be calls that are 'wrong.'” — Meg ([26:33])

The Philosophy of the Strike Zone ([31:07]-[38:52])

• Ben on Framing: Believes the pitch isn’t complete until the call, and the catcher’s skill is a feature, not a flaw.

  "The act of receiving the pitch is part of the pitch itself. It’s a pitcher and catcher in tandem." — Ben ([36:46])

• Both acknowledge slippery slope worries—if the challenge system works, will full ABS (Automated Ball/Strike system) become inevitable?

The End of the K-Zone? ([38:52]-[42:11])

• Both favor removing on-screen strike zone tools, seeing them as engagement bait that misleads and inflames fan outrage (“we do not need to manufacture reasons for grumpy upset” — Meg [41:24]).
• “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, fake K Zone.” — Meg ([42:09])

Listener Questions & Deep Dives ([42:48]-[97:07])

Warning Track: Outfield or All Around? ([44:09]-[51:00])

• Issue: Is “warning track” only for dirt in front of the outfield wall or for all dirt around the field?
• Consensus: Technically can refer to all warning track dirt, but convention/intent is usually only for outfield. Outfield/infield is a more meaningful distinction than fair/foul.

  “I don’t think it’s technically wrong…but it is most often a term…as it pertains to the outfield.” — Meg ([48:37])

The Easiest Day at the Office ([52:41]-[55:25])

• If a batter pinch hits, is intentionally walked without seeing a pitch, and is then replaced—has he had the easiest possible game?
• Hosts note the rare “no plate appearance pinch hitter,” who is announced but immediately replaced, might have it even easier.

Bayesian vs. Frequentist Teams ([57:57]-[63:46])

• Statistical Philosophies in Team Analytics:
  Some teams focus job postings on Bayesian techniques, others do not.
• Expert Ben Clemens’ Input: Teams use both approaches; job listing language may suggest a philosophical slant, but practical needs blend both methods.

Hypothetical: The 1-Single-a-Game Player ([63:46]-[72:39])

• If a player got one single (and nothing else) in every game—would he make the Hall of Fame?
  • Despite a massive hit streak, the lack of overall production (no power, low OBP) would limit both career and Hall potential—unless the player is a literal magic pinch-hit specialist.

2025’s Playoff Landscape and League Strength ([77:08]-[88:17])

• Despite preseason expectations, the American League is nearly even with the National League in interleague play.
• Both leagues’ “top end” teams have underperformed, creating a tightly-clustered, “mid” playoff race.

  “Just a general midness which we have discussed before and…is attributable to the top end in both leagues being kind of down relative to expectation.” — Meg ([77:58])

• Mariners’ playoff and World Series odds prompt a discussion of how fans interpret (or misinterpret) probability stats.

Tag Plays, Replay, and Airspace Debates ([92:13]-[97:06])

• Airspace Outs: Should a runner be called out if they momentarily lose contact with the bag while over it and are tagged?
  • Replay Criticism: Noted for creating delay, chasing “outs hiding in there.”
  • Ben splits “mental error” airspace (e.g., hopping after arriving) from brief slide-momentum mistakes.

Notable Quotes

• “It was a microcosm of the Cleveland Guardians experience.” —Ben ([04:56])
• “In a situation like this… there’s so little ambiguity about it being an accident…” — Meg ([06:27])
• “It would be funny, I think, if [the Dodgers] got eliminated early…they come into it with Ohtani and Yamamoto and Snell and Glassnow…and then they just, like, get swept or something.” — Ben ([17:41])
• “I love [the Challenge System] and think that it’s great fun…it introduces strategy in a way that technology often removes…” —Meg ([26:33])
• “Even tennis…has now…turned to having no line judges and just letting the machinery call the games. This is the beginning of the end of the home plate umpire…” — Joe Posnanski (quoted by Ben) ([31:07])
• “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, fake K Zone.” — Meg ([42:09])
• “I think it’s more of an outfield/infield distinction to me than…it’s a fair/foul one.” — Ben ([50:54])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tigers–Guardians Game, David Fry Injury: [00:45]–[06:27]
• Collapse Narratives: [09:34]–[13:10]
• Dodgers Bullpen & NL West: [13:10]–[17:41]
• Automated Strike Zone Debate / Challenge System: [23:28]–[38:52]
• K-Zone Critique: [38:52]–[42:11]
• Listener Mail: Warning Track: [44:09]–[51:00]
• Listener Mail: Bayesian Baseball: [57:57]–[63:46]
• Listener Mail: 1 Single Per Game Player: [63:46]–[72:39]
• Listener Mail: League Strength: [77:08]–[88:17]
• Listener Mail: Tag/Replay Debate: [92:13]–[97:07]

Memorable & Light-Hearted Moments

• Meg describes leaving a tense Mariners game mid-dinner for “a gin cocktail and some chicken wings” ([20:22]).
• Playful, semi-serious callouts (“We love a good narrative. Right?” — Meg ([11:45]))
• Theorizing about “no PA pinch hitters” having the true “easiest day at the office” ([53:13])
• Frequent riffs on what makes the “most Effectively Wild” scenario (listener challenge issued for nominations—[98:56]).

Summary

Episode 2379 takes listeners through a wild late-September baseball night brimming with playoff tension, remarkable innings, and oddities. The hosts dig into emotional and strategic wrinkles—both on the field (bullpen failures, the emotional impact of a major HBP) and off (debate over rule and tech changes). The episode is vibrant with natural, knowledgeable banter and a devotion to examining the full spectrum of baseball, from the tactical (bullpen construction) to the philosophical (what “right” means for strike calls), all capped by thoughtful listener interactions and real-time pennant race drama.

For more on any topic, consult the show notes and Fangraphs for stats, stories and links referenced during the episode.