Effectively Wild Episode 2388: May the Fastest Fish Win

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2388: May the Fastest Fish Win

Date: October 17, 2025
Hosts: Meg Rowley (FanGraphs), Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer)

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Episode Overview

This episode of Effectively Wild is a classic postseason check-in, blending in-depth statistical analysis, playoff narrative debates, and the uniquely “Effectively Wild” penchant for baseball ephemera (fish mascots, broadcaster quirks, playoff myths). Ben and Meg review the MLB Playoff Championship Series to date, highlight incredible pitching performances (especially Yamamoto’s complete game), debate hot-button issues around team payroll and “buying championships,” take listener emails about playoff superstitions and quirks, and dive into weird postseason phenomena both on the field and in the stands.

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Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Patreon Playoff Livestream & Personal Stakes [00:16–02:18]

• Ben promotes a Patreon-exclusive livestream for NLCS Game 4, promising “raw, uncut Ben Lindbergh” as Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for the Dodgers.
• Meg reveals her Mariners fandom is running high, with emotional stakes if the Mariners advance: "Either our listeners will get to hear me contemplate eating my own hair or probably cry, you know, because the Mariners would be advancing." [01:09]

2. Home-Field Advantage—or Lack Thereof [02:18–06:26]

• Observations on the oddity of road teams winning every game so far, and how it saps stadium atmosphere.
• Shout-out to Seattle fans sticking it out, creative rally caps, and “humpy” (the salmon mascot) moments.
• Meg expresses frustration with the national broadcast, and both hosts debate how crowd and broadcaster energy shape the postseason viewing experience.

3. Game Recaps: Yamamoto’s Dominance & Blue Jays' Resurgence [07:15–21:35]

• The focus turns to Yamamoto’s historic NLCS Game 2 complete game:
  • "Who knew that that was still possible, that that was still permissible under the current rules of managing in the playoffs… first time since 2017 ALCS…" [09:30]
  • Discussion of the rarity and management strategy for playoff complete games.
  • Both praise the Dodgers' workaround for bullpen weaknesses by maximizing starters’ innings.
  • Meg: “I want us to have the appropriate level of care while also understanding that ultimately each of these guys is an n of 1, and we can have some wiggle if it’s like, responsible. Wiggle. Wiggle responsibly, I guess, is what I’m trying to say.” [20:05]
• Quick hit on Blue Jays' offense coming alive, especially the resurgence of Vlad Jr. and their approach.

4. Wider Playoff/Narrative Concerns: Dodgers' Success, Payroll, & Baseball Parity [24:49–41:18]

• Debate on whether a Dodgers’ World Series win — especially if paired with a top-five-payroll Blue Jays opponent — will fuel “baseball is broken/bought” narratives in the offseason.
• Ben: “If the Dodgers repeat, which no one has done since the dynasty Yankees… if the Dodgers win and we’re in for… a long, cold winter. That’s what’s going to happen, I think.” [32:15]
• Meg pushes back on “payroll as inheritance”: “We act as if the TV deal and the payroll commitment is like eye color… it isn’t. It is an active choice and… not every team makes it.” [35:37]
• Both hosts bemoan but analyze the inevitability of payroll/CBT/cap discussions if the Dodgers win again.

5. Listener Email: Kike Hernández, Playoff Superpowers [41:18–55:42]

• Email prompts a deep-dive into Kike Hernández’s uncanny, outsized postseason performance compared to his regular-season stats:
  • “He has basically been the best postseason hitter of all time relative to his regular season output…” [44:48]
  • Comparison by OPS ratio to other playoff legends (Randy Arozarena, Carlos Beltrán, Pablo Sandoval, etc.)
• Ben: “Would I bet on it continuing? I’m starting to get to the point where I’ll at least allow for the possibility…” [49:28]
• Meg: “It can’t just be vibes, right?” [50:03]
• The hosts muse on playoff clutchness, player streakiness, and how much of it is real/cosmic luck vs. a mental edge.

6. More Listener Questions: Strategy & Semantics [59:23–97:03]

a. Managing Pitchers in Postseason Blowouts [59:23–66:32]

• Meg questions Mariners manager Dan Wilson’s choice to leave George Kirby in during Game 3’s bad inning, advocating for quicker hooks to preserve bullpen arms for winnable games:
  "I just would have liked a little more urgency out of Dan Wilson in that moment..." [61:55]
• The hosts expand on philosophies of aggressively managing pitching in October (using examples like Dave Roberts, Brian Snitker).

b. Mascot Mayhem: Humpy the Salmon [67:41–75:08]

• Discussion on the playful superstition and crowd energy attached to the salmon run mascot “Humpy” in Seattle.
• Meg: "I think Humpy's influence is ambiguous... I think Humpy's role in all of this is, well, like, obviously pretend. But beyond that, even if one wants to imbue real magic into the thing, a mixed record..." [69:47]
• Ben: "Humpy has happened already." [74:39]
• Lighthearted verdict: Let the salmon run play out unscripted and hold back manufactured magic unless the team truly needs a jolt.

c. Playoff Ethics: Should Wealthy Team Fans Feel Guilty? [76:18–81:19]

• Listener asks if it’s “ethically acceptable” for fans of powerhouses like the Dodgers to root for more titles given fairness/payroll discourse.
• Ben: “Fandom’s a selfish activity… you want the gratification of winning this World Series. That’s what fandom’s all about.” [78:45]
• Meg: "Fans give enough to the game. You don't have to be responsible for what your owner...does. You're giving your time, your treasure...you don't owe it anything more than that." [80:02]

d. Semantics Corner: Sweeps, Dustings, and the Tying Run [81:19–93:14]

• A listener proposes "dusting" as the term for a two-game sweep (not just a "sweep").
• Meg & Ben debate cleaning metaphors in baseball, with Meg ultimately rejecting "dusting" as an apt term (disagreement!).
• Further mini-segments on play-by-play language:
  • Should a runner on second “hold/carry the tying run,” or “represent” it? Ben and Meg agree “represent” is typical.
  • Can you have a “great take on a great pitch"? Both agree it's possible, but Smoltz’s surprise at such an event is likely a pitcher-centric view.

e. The Fragile Legacy of Playoff Heroes [93:14–98:29]

• Prompt: Can a player who once “never had to buy a drink” in town (i.e., beloved for a postseason moment) lose that status if they later disappoint, e.g., as a manager?
• Discussion of Aaron Boone, Craig Counsell, and how extended exposure or disappointing second acts can erode a hero’s luster.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Playoff Emotional Range:
  Meg: "Insane. You know, like...I'll be contemplating eating my hair or probably cry...Mariners would be advancing." [01:09]
• On Yamamoto’s Postseason Gem:
  Ben: "Who knew that that was still possible, that that was still permissible under the current rules of managing in the playoffs?" [09:30]
• On Team Construction and Payroll Choices:
  Meg: "We act as if the TV deal and the payroll commitment is like eye color...it is an active choice." [35:37]
• On Kike Hernández’s Postseason Aura:
  Ben: "He has basically been the best postseason hitter of all time relative to his regular season output..." [44:48] Meg: "It can’t just be vibes, right?" [50:03]
• On Fan Guilt and Team Success:
  Ben: “Fandom’s a selfish activity… you want the gratification of winning this World Series. That’s what fandom’s all about.” [78:45]
  Meg: “Fans give enough to the game. You don't have to be responsible for what your owner...does.” [80:02]
• On Salmon Mascot Superstitions:
  Meg: "I think Humpy's influence is ambiguous...I think Humpy's role in all of this is, well, like, obviously pretend." [69:47]
• On Vocabulary, Sweeps, and Dustings:
  Ben: “‘Dusting’… I like the idea of having something that conveys what happened but is less majestic than ‘sweep’.” [82:41]
  Meg: “A duster isn’t often an implement at all… I think it pushes it too far afield.” [82:41]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Patreon Livestream Plug & Stakes: [00:16–02:18]
• Home Team Losing Streak & Ballpark Vibes: [02:18–06:26]
• Game Recap – Yamamoto’s Complete Game/Blue Jays Offense: [09:30–21:35]
• Dodgers, Payroll, & Baseball’s Systemic Debates: [24:49–41:18]
• Kike Hernández’s Postseason Magic: [41:18–55:42]
• Managing Pitchers/Blowout Strategy: [59:23–66:32]
• Salmon Mascots, Superstition, and Fan Rituals: [67:41–75:08]
• Fan Guilt and Ethics: [76:18–81:19]
• Baseball Lexicon (Sweeps, Carries, Takes): [81:19–93:14]
• Legacy Lost (Never Buy a Drink Again?): [93:14–98:29]

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In the Weeds: Playoff Trivia and Tangents

• Complete dissection of managing strategies for teams with bullpen concerns (Dodgers) and the pitching staff mentality in the postseason.
• Deep cut on the colloquial and technical language of the game—“dustings,” “mops,” and the semantics of run representation.
• Long-standing Effectively Wild tradition: mascots and crowd rituals as meaningful playoff “factors” (Humpy the Salmon’s playoff run).

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Takeaways

• The postseason's magic is as unpredictable as ever—whether coming from the pitching mound, the batter’s box, or the stands.
• Statistical oddities (Kike Hernández's October heroics), evolving managerial philosophies, and payroll narratives intermingle, fueling both analysis and storytelling.
• Fan experience—emotions, superstition, and local culture—remains central to how playoffs are lived and remembered.
• With the Dodgers and Blue Jays flexing big-payroll muscle, and perennial questions about fairness, randomness, and championship “worthiness” looming, the postseason continues to provoke as much existential baseball hand-wringing as on-field drama.

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For Further Reference

• Listeners can reference specific timestamps via this summary for segment recaps and notable quote locations.
• Further resources: Fangraphs for stat leaderboards and postseason tracking, Patreon for the Effectively Wild Discord/live events, and links in show notes for referenced columns and debated commercials (i.e., “The Whole Spread is a Good Lunch”).

Transcript

[A]

Anything is fair game, even Key K's dirty pants.

[B]

And maybe if you're lucky, we'll cold call. By the chance, you never know precisely where it's gonna go by definition, Effectively.

[A]

Wild hello and welcome to episode 2388 of Effectively Wild, a FanGraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Riley of fangraphs and I'm joined by Ben Limburg of the Ringer. Ben, how are you?

[B]

I'm excited for our upcoming first playoff livestream for our Patreon supporters at the nedgarver tier or above figured out. Give it one more plug, one last plug for the first livestream, which will be Friday night during NLCS Game four. Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Us in the Patreon Discord group with many people listening along and chatting. You still have time. If you're hearing this before first pitch of that game, sign up and you will get a message with a link to join the group and all the info that you need. But 8:38 Eastern first pitch game four, NLCS talk to you then. Potentially.

[A]

I'm excited for our listeners. The streams are always fun. We always have a great time. But here's the reason I'm excited, Ben. I'm going to be insane. You know, like I will here, here's, here's where I'll be at for everyone. And we'll talk about some of the recent game action that have gotten us to this stupid point. But it'll be immediately following and probably overlapping ever so slightly with ALCS game 5. And so either our listeners will get to hear me contemplate eating my own hair or probably cry, you know, because the Mariners would be advancing to so you're in for some good television.

[B]

That's really radio, a real range of outcomes there. And also you get access to raw uncut Ben Lindbergh watching Shohei Ohtani.

[A]

That's true.

[B]

Describing it as raw and uncut makes it sound even worse than it would have otherwise. But yes, playoff Ohtani on the mound and you will get my live reactions.

[A]

What an interesting choice we've made, you know. What interesting choices.

[B]

Well, spend your Friday night with us if you care to. Okay, so there have been a couple games since we last recorded and there will be a couple games immediately after we finish recording. So we will not be talking about Thursday's games, which have not yet happened as we speak, but we can talk a little bit about NLCS Game two and ALCS Game three. And maybe we can actually answer a few playoff Themed emails. We get so few emails answered during the playoffs because there are just so many games to talk about all the time. They never stop. Eventually they do, and when they do, we're sad and we wish they wouldn't. So we should be happy as long as they keep going. You know, one thing that strikes me about this round at least, because we saw the Dodgers, of course, win game two in Milwaukee, and then Toronto went into Seattle and won game three of that series. And so the road team has won every game in the championship series round so far. And that does, I think, affect the spectator experience, even watching from home. And I remember talking about this, the 2019 World Series. Every game was won by the road team. And then I remember the Rangers run in 2023. They were really great on the road. And when the road team is always winning, it really does depress the ballpark atmosphere. Now, I, I was pretty impressed with the Seattle faithful, who remained faithful until the bitter ends, really. On Wednesday, they maintained their energy more than one would expect in what ended up being a blowout. There were many creative rally caps and sneakers on people's heads, and maybe they were all hyped for humpy, which we should talk about for a second, but it didn't seem like a lot of them left, which, you know, you probably shouldn't leave if you have had as few home playoff games as Mariners fans have had.

[A]

Oh, yeah.

[B]

So really stick it out till the end because you never know when you're going to get more games. Right. The supply is limited, demand is high. But even so, even though they maintained their energy pretty impressively, I thought it's. It's always going to be quieter. Right. The place is not going to be rocking when your team is downed by a bunch of runs. Even if they hit some solo homers late, even if you get a. A big dumper dinger to revive everyone's flagging spirit. So.

[A]

Right. Yeah.

[B]

You know, and, and the Blue Jays fans did their part in Toronto, too, even though things didn't go their way.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Milwaukee fans, too. Right. You all. I'm not, I'm not saying that anyone was bad, didn't show up and, and represent themselves. It's always going to take the air out a little bit when the home team is losing. And that's all we've had really, in this series. You know, that ALCS game three started with the Mariners briefly up and Julio homer again, and there was real excitement there. But then quickly they were quieted down by the Blue Jays bat. So I'd like to see some home teams win. Except now I'm kind of rooting for extended series. I know you're not really. At least in one of these series, you'd probably like to wrap up business, you know, just take care of things in Seattle and. And not mess around. But I would like to see the excitement, the ballpark atmosphere that we get when a home crowd has something to be happy about.

[A]

Look, I think that it's good for one CS to go at least six. Yeah, I think it's good for one CS to go at least six.

[B]

One specific cs, One specific one.

[A]

And look, if all I can get, if I am forced to endure two, but the one I care the most about goes my way. I mean, like, I'll tolerate it, you know, I'll allow it. I won't like it, but I'll allow it. But I think that, like, it's such a special. It's such a special thing to be in the playoffs. And I think, you know, home. Home crowds are going to be up for it, you know, and they aren't going to leave early to. Did some of us turn the game off at a certain point.

[B]

Excusable, I think.

[A]

But yeah, we were like, we feel lousy. We don't have to work tonight because Matt is maybe editing the gamer overnight. And so we've had a tipple and now we just want to watch a scary movie because that horror is less terrible than whatever nonsense is going on with George Kirby. Yeah, I mean, sure, like, but if you're there, you know, if you spent the money to go to a playoff game, you're not leaving early. You're not leaving early, you know, and I was. I was offended on behalf of home crowds. Smoltz is like, wow, you know, this is how you take that? I was more annoyed by the broadcast booth yesterday than I had been in the prior two games. Who could say why?

[B]

You know, I actually thought they were a little bit better, but that was not disagree. Colored by the same fan affiliation. So.

[A]

Yeah, but. So, you know, I think, like, look, people get excited for postseason baseball. It's. It's exciting. Is it always super interesting? No, I mean, like, look, did I worry about how we were going to podcast about two games that were pretty boring when it was all said and done? I mean, we should talk about. I think what we should really do is use this as an opportunity to talk about Yamamoto and his incredible complete game, because, boy, did he sure have them on tilt. And then we should talk about resurgent Blue J's offense Which did we think that they were going to be contained like that for the entire series? Even I didn't think that. And I have a vested interest in delusion right now because I'm always so stressed. So we could. We should focus on those things and then we can not worry too much about whether Dan Wilson should have pulled George Kirby. I do have to ask you what you thought of his decision to leave him in. Because, like, I expressed some amount of consternation at that. And then people who I don't know on social media decided that I was dumb and I didn't appreciate that either. I was like, that's not my favorite. So where do you want to start? You know, where should we start with these two games?

[B]

Because we should just say it, right? I mean, on that point of at least one series, hopefully going long. This is not like last year where there was some flex built into the schedule, where if the CS's ended early, then the World Series would start early. Not so this year. It's game one is next Friday, October 24th, one way or another. So if these series, say, ended this weekend, then we would have a whole week essentially without baseball, which would not be ideal. Even if it would give us plenty of time to preview that series and get excited about it. Still, that would be a bit of a bummer and a disruption of the rhythm. So, yeah. Hoping that we will have some baseball to discuss next week.

[A]

Yeah, I mean, sure, I, I will say that I hated the flex option possibility. I know that my interests are so niche, but it's just a nightmare from an editorial perspective to have to plan for the possibility and people have to travel. It was like, who's I? You know, whose idea is this? This is a bad idea. You know who came up with this? This is a Manfred joint. Like, come on.

[B]

Well, Yamamoto in game two was just completely in control after the first pitch of the game, which Jackson Trurio hit out, which I know Sam Miller was excited to see because of course, he wrote earlier this year in Pebble Hunting about how people should be swinging more and maybe are finally swinging more at the very first pitch of the game. Because that is often the best pitch to hit or the most predictable pitch. Because even now, when no one really follows a particular pattern, that is easy to discern. That first pitch of the game is pretty reliably a fastball in the strike zone. So you might as well just take what you're given. And we've seen a few guys do that this postseason, but after that, nothing doing for Milwaukee just absolutely silenced by Yamamoto, who is completely in control, completely efficient, as we know from the fact that he pitched a complete game. Who knew that that was still possible, that that was still permissible under the current rules of managing in the playoffs. The first time since the 2017 ALCS when Justin Verlander pitched a complete game, that anyone had done it or really been to do it. And I don't know if this had anything to do with the fact that in Game one, Blake Snell was so good through eight, and then Roberts went to the bullpen and barely escaped after Sasaki got into some trouble and. And Trinen managed to wriggle his way out of it. Or maybe it was just the fact that he had thrown, what, 97 pitches, I think through eight, and he just barely broke a sweat. Like they never had a runner in scoring position in that game, the brewers, which I know is odd because they did score the one time, but I guess that's a, that's a pedantic question for you. Was Jackson Churio in scoring position? He scored, so he must have been in scoring position. Right. But I saw it widely reported that there was no one in scoring position. There was no runner in scoring position, except as Churio was rounding the bases. He was on second and third en route to home. But that's not what we mean usually.

[A]

It's not what we mean usually. I. I thought that the, the statement that they did not have a runner in scoring position conveyed the reality of their offensive ineptitude in a way that I was perfectly comfortable with. And to say that he was in scoring position, I think would upend our common understanding of that expression to the point that it would be wildly confusing for people. So I thought it. I thought people got it right with their. With their statement there.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, I think so too. And really, of course, there's more pressure in even a. A. Well, there is no such thing as a routine start in the nlcs, really, but even one where you're cruising, there's gonna be some pressure. Cuz he didn't have a huge margin to work with for much of that game. It was 2:1 through the end of five. And then the Dodgers tacked on a run in the sixth and the seventh and the eighth, and it ended up being five to one. But you know, that's close enough that a grand slam can tie it. So it didn't get out of hand or anything, but the brewers just couldn't get anything going. They just could not muster a rally. And he was getting chases and he was getting whiffs and he was getting soft contact. And it's been a Brewers offensive outage now. I mean, they started so well in the Cub series and then barely made it out of that series because their bats went pretty quiet. And that's how things have started in this series, too. Hard to know whether that's down to brewers bats or Snell and Yamamoto, because that's a pretty tough assignment.

[A]

It's an incredibly tough assignment, and I'm enjoying so much not only the contrast between the intra Dodgers contrast between last postseason and this postseason, but just the contrast between how, particularly in these last two games, this Dodgers pitching has worked out relative to what we often see in the postseason generally, which is in a way that I have defended in the past, because I think ultimately the idea of really punting a playoff game is. Is hard to fathom. Maybe not if you're Dan Wilson, but like, you know, in general, the idea of punting a playoff game is hard to fathom. And that can lead itself to early hooks. And sometimes those early hooks are like completely necessary early hooks. And sometimes it's like you could probably.

[B]

Leave them in there to go one.

[A]

Or two more, don't you think? Don't you think you could leave them and. And with. With both Snell and Yamamoto just really so thoroughly dominant that you. You saw them, it wasn't like they were. They were preparing to face the order a fourth time through or anything like that. It's like, well, no, of course you should leave them in there. And then you have the additional context obviously of a shaky Dodgers bullpen, but just really quite dominant. I also really enjoy it when you have in inter playoff contrast with a given starter. Right. So like, Yamamoto got lit up by the Phillies in the last round, right?

[B]

The.

[A]

The only game that they won and really the only game in which they looked competitive. I mean, Kershaw helped in that one too, right? That was the Kershaw game. Was that right? Is that right? Is that right?

[B]

That's right.

[A]

Is that right?

[B]

It's tough to keep track of all the games pitched by Dodgers starters.

[A]

He didn't pitch well last time. Yamamoto lit up, might be strong, but he did not pitch well. Right? And then like, he didn't dye his hair in between. And like, we continue to try to understand how magic works and fail. But anyway, like, you know, for him to come out and be so dominant now, I don't know if I would have sent him out there for the 9th. I was like, I think you can probably just, you can bring in a really. You can bring in a reliever. You can bring in a reliever. Dave and I started to talk in a weird register, but it was so great. It was just like. And. And he. The delight at the.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

At the end of that, where you can see Yamamoto mouth. Wow. I just did that.

[B]

Beautiful.

[A]

Gorgeous. Loved every part of it. I mean, not for the brewers faithful. I felt bad for them. But for him, I was excited.

[B]

Yeah. I am glad that he did it. We got the rare spectacle of the postseason complete game, and I think it is. It's the circumstances. It's the fact that you won Game one, you're heading home, you're hoping you're going to go up to nothing, and you have so many starters. It's not like you're gonna have to bring him back on short rest or something. And he just didn't have to work all that hard. And I know that there was. There was some extra pressure just because it's a postseason game. But. But even so, you know, he. We know that cruising does not necessarily mean that you will continue to cruise, that there isn't any great predictive value there, but there is predictive value in being Yoshinobu Yamamoto and being an excellent starring pitcher. And he is the kind of guy you can afford to let go a little longer. And he didn't have a huge pitch count. It was the same game Kershaw pitched in the Yamamoto start in the nlts. Yes. That was game three.

[A]

The end score didn't. That wasn't all. It wasn't like. That was all Yamamoto. Right?

[B]

Yeah. He wasn't great. He gave up three runs in four.

[A]

Yeah. Kershaw also laid an egg, though, which made the eventual margin look much worse. So I just wanted to. I want to be fair to Yamamoto. Lit up is strong. That was too strong, you know?

[B]

Yeah. Yeah.

[A]

Sometimes you say something stupid on the pot in real time and you're like, instead of just having Shane cut it, let's spend three minutes figuring it out, why don't we?

[B]

Right. Yeah. And so the Dodgers are. Are executing this plan to near perfection now, which is, hey, our bullpen stinks. What if we just didn't have to use it? And it's working out pretty well for them, whether through having excellent starting pitchers go deep into games or by having starting pitchers pitch in relief. I mean, it's pretty impressive that they are just sidestepping their weakness. The flaw that everyone identified coming into this, and it's not unexpected. I think we all thought, okay, can they Just get through this without using regular levers because they can just use Roki and they can use Sheen and they can just, you know, get what they can out of guys on their throw days or whatever it is. But yeah, they're making that work. And they've gotten, I think, a total of 13 innings out of starters in relief and like 8 innings out of actual relievers in relief. You know, so their starters are pitching in relief more than their relievers are. And then of course, the best thing to do is just not have to use a reliever at all because your starter's so good that you can just leave them in there. So, yeah, if they had five dependable bullpen arms out there, would they have pushed Yamamoto for that final inning? Maybe not. Maybe they wouldn't have needed to. But it helps you, I think, long term. I mean, even if you have an off day the next day, as they did, still, you know, if there's truth to the familiarity effect of seeing the same relievers, the same teams in a short series, then might as well avoid that if you can, and give other guys a breather. So, yeah, it was, it was fun. It was fun and he certainly deserved that extra inning and he rewarded Roberts faith and probably if he had put someone on, he would have been out and I don't know, Banda or someone would've finished the game. But he didn't run into any trouble in the ninth either, so no sweat.

[A]

It didn't really seem very hard for him at all. You know, it was just an easy, a pretty easy time. And I, I think that there is, on the one hand, there is such earned and reasonable concern about the health of starters, pitchers generally, but starters in particular, and which pitch is going to be the pitch that, you know, that breaks them and that you lose them for a year and a half or whatever. But I, I, so I understand that. At the same time, I, I do worry sometimes that we are a little to not precious with them, but like our understanding of where that boundary is has sort of calcified and become just the same for everybody. Right. And we can overdo it a little bit and we have this, you know, relationship with a hundred pitches and it's a good guideline. I don't mean to say that it's not, but like, you know, Yamamoto used to throw complete games in Japan a lot. Like he, you know, he has experience with this and I think we're right to note that, like, some pitches are higher stress than others. And yeah, if he had put a guy on, I'M sure they would have turned to the bullpen then, but we just. I want us to have the appropriate level of care while also understanding that ultimately each of these guys is an n of 1, and we can have some wiggle if it's like, responsible. Wiggle. Wiggle responsibly, I guess, is what I'm trying to say. And I think that they. They managed to do that. And I haven't always thought that, like, Roberts has made the right calls in these situations, and by that, I mean his postseason play. I think he guards his guys quite carefully in a way that I admire, even when situationally, there are sometimes people calling for him to leave a guy in so that he can, like, accomplish something. But I. I thought it was well handled, and that was good, and we got to see something really special as a result of that. Not that. Not that Yamamoto's outing would have suddenly been, like, less impressive if he had only gone eight. Like, it still would have been a great, you know, really great postseason outing, but it was particularly special given that he threw a complete game and, like, wow, are they sure set up well, because, you know, who didn't throw a complete game was Freddie Peralta, and he's.

[B]

Like, their only actual starter, so it doesn't feel good. Yeah, it's. It's very often the case that the brewers just have not announced a starter just until right before the game, really, which you might say is gamesmanship, except they don't really have designated starters. I mean, they have a couple guys, Misarowski, Patrick, pitching out of the pen mostly for them, and it's just kind of a game by game, game time decision. Tbd. And. And yeah, for all the. The great starting pitcher performances that we're talking about here. And Bieber was also quite good in.

[A]

Yeah, once you settle down, man.

[B]

Yeah. Yeah. I doubt. You know, I'm loathe to make predictions, but it would seem to me that perhaps we will not see the same in at least both of the games on Thursday, which we are recording before this seems like a case. You know, the brewers have Ashby's starting, and then maybe there will be a bulk guy, and then maybe you see Patrick, maybe you see the Miz, and then the Dodgers have glassnow going and. And, you know, in the Blue Jays series, you have Scherzer, which looks great if he could muster one more excellent postseason start, but I'm indifferent to that. Well, yes, I know you are, but. But he's been quite bad lately down the stretch and. Yeah, so we'll see I would imagine that we will see much more bullpen action in these games in total, and probably some starters pitching and relief, but we will see whether that prediction turns out to be way off. As you're listening to this, you know, whether that was right or not.

[A]

Someone somewhere is going. There are. There are two possibilities. Someone, somewhere is going, oh, poor Meg. They're sitting there saying, scherzer's been bad. Men just twirled a gem. Or you're. You're sitting there going, oh, poor Scherzer, man, he didn't even make it out of the first inning. I mean, I guess there are a lot of potential outcomes in between those two things, but, like, spiritually, intellectually, like, in my heart, ecumenically, that's kind of where I sit, where it's like, either they got shut out or he got bombed. Bombed.

[B]

Yeah, they.

[A]

You know, the Blue Jays were hitting home runs, so why didn't. Why weren't the Mariners. Oh, anyway.

[B]

Hit some homers, too. That was a lot of.

[A]

Someone cancel a Patreon sub recently because they said it was, like, too much Mariner stock. And I want that person to know, like, first of all, thank you for your support. Support up until that point. You're allowed to be done with us whenever you want. Also. I get it. But. But. But they are in. They are in the alcs. So, like, I know that we're. We lean heavy that way sometimes because my brain requires some outlet, and I haven't found a new therapist yet. But also, like, come on, come on.

[B]

It's not a yearly occurrence either, that we are talking about Mariners at this point. In generally.

[A]

Not generally. At this point. I am. I am. Well, I'm not happy, necessarily, but I am freer, you know, unburdened in a different way.

[B]

It's unprecedented at this point in effectively wild history, and we've been doing this podcast for a long time. So let me have this once. Just once. Okay?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Yes. Yeah. Now, it has not helped, I think, the building backlash to the Dodgers that they just dispensed with Milwaukee with no trouble in the first couple games behind a couple of highly paid aces, the like of which the brewers do not employ. And there is a part of me that is just deeply dreading what will befall us all if the Dodgers win not only this Series, but win the World Series. Because it will, in many people's minds, confirm all of the dooming and glooming and the prognosticating that baseball's broken and the Dodgers have bought a championship. And look, obviously they Buy themselves a virtually guaranteed ticket to October.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Which is more than just about any other team can say. And they've been doing that for a long time. And they will continue to do that as long as their financial and intellectual and reputational advantage persists. And so, absolutely, you're entitled to be annoyed, I think, if you're, say, a Brewers fan. If the brewers don't come back in the series and you see the payroll mismatch there. And Neil Payne had some data on his substack that the higher payroll team. It's not much better than a coin flip the past five years or so, or the. Even the last couple years that the higher payroll team wins a playoff series something like 55% of the time or whatever, you know, it's. It's not much more than home field advantage. So once you actually get into the playoffs, your payroll doesn't help all that much, but it does help you get there, obviously. And so if the Dodgers end up winning the World Series, my take will probably be that they were unbeaten but not unbeatable. Yeah, that. This does not confirm that it was a cinch all along that they actually did buy a title the way that some people think of that term, that there was just no other way for things to play out than for them to win. Of course, they could have lost. The Phillies gave them a run for their money. They had to play a wild card round, right? Like, if they were super dominant and unbeatable, then they would have at least gotten a first round buy, which they didn't do. Right. But they routed it to form at the right point in the season and they got their guys back. And they're certainly better equipped to win now than they were for much of the regular season. But even so, lots of great Dodgers teams, even better Dodgers teams have wiped out in the playoffs and have crashed and burned, and that can happen, too. But. But you know, you keep punching your ticket to October, which they do to a greater extent than any other team before the season starts. Well, then you keep getting more cracks at it, more bites at the apple, as they say. And sometimes it's a mealy apple and there's a worm in there and they spit it out, and they get spit out, and sometimes they win a World Series like that will happen if they keep making it. So there is, I think, some justified annoyance with that. But. But in a way it will frustrate me because I think people will probably over interpret it to say, yes, it could only ever have been thus, essentially. And it is still Baseball, it's not basketball, it's some other sport. There's a lot of randomness built into the structure of the sport. And if they manage to defeat that randomness in back to back seasons, it will make it appear, I think, more inevitable than it actually was, which is not to, to take away all merit from the, yeah, Dodgers. It's not a level playing field. It never really has been. And, and then it's a separate conversation, you know, should it be leveled? How should it be leveled? Right. But you know, I think there will be so much hand wringing if the Dodgers win that part of me just wants to avoid that. And a large part of you probably wants to avoid that because you would like the Mariners to win the World Series and yeah, I would like to be, aside from any rooting for a particular team, I would like to be spared, I guess, an off season of the Dodgers broke baseball, which, there's a little bit of truth to that and then some exaggeration.

[A]

It's such a funny thing because. Okay, so let's kind of game this out. Do you think that that narrative about the Dodgers having broken basically baseball will gain the same amount of traction if their opponent. So first of all, if they don't win the World Series, I don't think that, that that conversation unfolds the same way. I don't think that there's a lot of purchase given to that conundrum. People are still going to be fretting about the Dodgers and the payroll advantage and all of that stuff. But I think that if they advance and then lose, particularly if they have an offseason that's relatively, which I think they will both because they are a very complete roster as currently constituted and because there isn't an Ohtani, there isn't a Snell. I don't imagine them being in play for Kyle Tucker, although I do kind of need an upgrade in the corner.

[B]

Careful what you say. I wouldn't bet against them being involved in, you know, I guess there's always Murakami to.

[A]

Sure. But I, I, I think particularly if they lose and then have a quiet off season for them, I think that the conversation dies down. So the question is, let's imagine for a moment and it is a perfectly feasible thing to imagine. Let's imagine for a moment the Dodgers advance and the Blue Jays advance. So now you have the Dodgers top payroll in baseball against the Blue Jays, who have a top five payroll in baseball. They are a top five payroll. They are a top five payroll, both just by pure salary. And then in terms of luxury tax payroll. So if the World Series we get is Blue Jays, Dodgers, do you think that we have the same conversation this offseason or is it made worse by the fact that the top two teams are both top five and payroll? Or is the, the, the sting kind of taken out of it? Because particularly if the Blue Jays win, like, they haven't done that in so long. And, and it is. I mean, I say they are a top five payroll in baseball, and that is true. I should be honest that relative to, I mean, tons of payroll is more than $100 million more than the Blue Jays, but they are still, they are still a top five payroll in baseball. So is it the same if, if they're. Basically, what I'm asking you is, does the Blue Jays advancing change the conversation in an important or appreciable way or are we just. Is the only way for us to avoid this conversation for the, for the Dodgers to not win the World Series either because Milwaukee rallies?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So you think we're, you think we're screwed?

[B]

Yes, I think we're in for it.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Regardless of the opponent. Because even if, say, the Mariners make it, who had a middle of the pack payroll.

[A]

Yeah, they were 15th. Exactly. I think.

[B]

Yeah. Then the Dodgers defeating them would be taken as. See, the higher payroll won. I think. I mean, now it's maybe not going to be quite as pronounced as last year when it was literally Yankees, Dodgers.

[A]

Right.

[B]

But then again, if the Dodgers repeat, which no one has done since the dynasty Yankees, because that was one of the arguments against, oh, baseball is broken. It's like, look, there's a new champion every year and, and a lot of different teams have won and no one has even managed to win back to back in a quarter century at this point. So if the Dodgers sort of take that debate point away. Yeah, if the Dodgers win and we're in for. It's like, you know, Punxsutawney Phil, forecasting of late spring or whatever, a long, cold winter. That's. That's what's going to happen, I think. Now, again, as we said earlier, I don't think this will actually have any bearing on CPA negotiations or the likelihood of a salary cap or the likelihood of a lost season or anything. This is all just public discussion and narrative, et cetera. But, you know, that's important too. That's what we will be subjected to and participate in after that Series. So, yeah, I think basically the Dodgers have to be knocked out one way or another. Now, if they're knocked out by the brewers or the Mariners, a considerably lower spending team, then maybe that makes that conversation subside even more. Although I tend to think that many, at least American fans don't really think of the Blue Jays as a big market high payroll team just because it's Canada.

[A]

Right. Do you think it's because they're just mentally doing like a, a currency conversion there and they're like, oh, well, the dollar is strong relative. Is that even true anymore?

[B]

It's, it's like, I think it's what.

[A]

Our exchange rate is right now.

[B]

You know, if they think about Canada at all, then maybe they think about how many fewer people are there. But you know, Toronto is a big city and also it's all of Canada that is paying attention to Toronto and to the Blue Jays. Right. And so they're getting huge ratings up there because it's just an enormous percentage of a much smaller, relatively speaking population. It's still a huge population watching those games, following those games. And yeah, it is a big market, it is a high payroll, but between it's a foreign country and also they just have not had that same recent track record of postseason success and if anything, just the opposite. When they have managed to make, they have sputtered quickly. And so you don't get that same, you know, Blue Jays are breaking baseball conversation. Right. So yeah, it's, it's all dependent on the Dodgers, I think. And the thing is, you'll never really get anywhere trying to persuade people. It's, it's like a process versus outcome kind of thing. It's like if the Dodgers win and you say, well, they easily could not have won, which is, which is true. But everyone will say, but yeah, but they did win though, and kind of act as if that was inevitable. And to be clear, it's, you know, much more likely they are playing on an easier mode than the other teams and they have made smart decisions and they have, they have managed to enhance their advantages.

[A]

Wildcard round.

[B]

I know. No, absolutely, yes. I'm just saying, you know, the built in where they are located and their TV deal and all the rest. Sure, right. You know, they start with a significant, a large leg up there, of course, but it's still.

[A]

I agree with that. I agree with that and I know I'm not really, I know you and I are not actually really disagreeing with this. So I want to be, want to treat you fairly, friend. But like we act as if the TV deal and the payroll commitment is like eye color. You know, people treat it like this passed down inherent and inheritable trait and it just, it isn't. It is, it is an active choice and it, it is, it is one that not every team makes and it's not one that every team is in the position to make. And I want to. I am a firm believer in the notion that every team in baseball, including the Pirates, can spend more money on their big league payroll than they do. Just like they can spend more money on staffing, they can send more money on infrastructure. I do think that we get a little over our skis, we being the, the like pro labor contingent of baseball media when we act as if every team is equally positioned relative to these things. And that isn't true. It, it is way closer than Bob Nutting wants to act as if it is and wants you to believe that it is. But I don't think that the position Pittsburgh Pirates have the same inherent payroll potential as the Dodgers. They have a lot bigger payroll potential than they have and their owner should be ashamed of the payroll potential he is trying to sell. But like, it's not quite the same. So like we can, we can all be honest here, right? We can be honest among friends, but they are active choices even within the. What is it like, I'm going to get, like, I'm, I'm regretting the genetic comparison because, like, it feels like it's going to get yishy really fast past. But like, you're. No, I, I don't like that one. But it's. It's not, it's not, it's not gravity, right? Like, there you go. Now we're in more comfortable territory. It's not, it's not. Because I was like, is it like diet? And then I was like, no, be done, Meg. Be done. That's not a. That, that.

[B]

Yeah. Nature plus nurture. Is that what you're saying?

[A]

It's not gravity, right? It's not, it's not a force that one simply must submit to. To. It is an active decision that is being made. Just like the ability to. You, like, sure, you have this great advantage. That is a good TV deal. But like that did have to get negotiated at some point anyway.

[B]

All of this to say, yeah, they've been dealt a strong hand.

[A]

They've been dealt a strong hand and.

[B]

They played it perfectly.

[A]

They played it perfectly. Right? They've done, they've done a great. They've done a great job. They've done a good, good job. This whole spread is a good lunch. Callback to a Patreon episode. I haven't seen that guy. I haven't seen that commercial in a long time. I miss it. I miss that guy. I hope he's having a good lunch somewhere. You know, I hope the QT guy is having a good lunch somewhere. Anyway, all of this to say, all of that to say Ben. I get exhausted by it and I hope that people have some like message discipline come the off season. And I know they won't, but I hope they do. And yeah, is, is, is the exchange rate doing so much heavy lifting on behalf of the Blue J. You know, the funny thing is the Blue Jays, you know, I don't wanna, I don't wanna yuck their yum. But like they should be spending more money. That conglomerate has money to spend and they sure they, they should not consider themselves payroll constrained. I understand that they and they being Rogers center, but with the R and the E switched around.

[B]

Canada.

[A]

Yeah, I respect it. And here's I respect it. I respect them. I admire the org. I do want the Mariners to win, but I feel like I'm picking between members of my family.

[B]

It's tough.

[A]

Like my editorial family. I mean I am.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Sorry.

[B]

Carson Graff's representation either way. And I just want to be able.

[A]

To make a 6 orc joke if they won the World Series. That's all I want.

[B]

Oh wow. I had forgotten about that. It's been a while.

[A]

Wow. I envy you your online life, buddy. If you haven't had to think about six or in a while, that means you're living life right. And I'm not.

[B]

I'll put a link on the show page for anyone who had also forgotten about that. Needs an explanation. But yeah, look, Toronto's lovely city. Canada's a lovely country. I'm half Canadian. Canadian dual citizen. We have 1/4 Canadian representation on this podcast.

[A]

So enviable passport.

[B]

The best for Canada. Yes, I do. Which I managed to renew recently just in case. Yeah, you were stressed about that. A little fire, yes. And then it was a whole ordeal to get it renewed. But that was, that was my fault. My bad. Anyway, they're letting me back in so that's good news. Anyway. So anyway, we're having, we're pre having the Dodgers conversation that we may not actually have to have depending on how things go. But look, baseball, sports, it's never a level playing field. Even if you have a salary cap. It's not an entirely level playing field. And look, there's some level of salary floor where maybe a salary cap would make sense. Is it a level of salary floor that the owners would actually agree to? Probably not. But you know, in theory, I guess I'm not so much anti salary cap as I am anti salary cap in a realistic circumstance or what a salary cap would actually entail.

[A]

I'm anti salary cap.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, look, I certainly would be if I were the players. I think there's snow. There's no coincidence that the sport with the strongest players union is the sport without a salary cap. There is not coincidental, no correlation and, and causation, I would venture to say there. Okay, so. So let's talk briefly then about the Blue Jays Mariners game. Actually, I have one more thing to say and this is actually a response to a listener email from a Patreon supporter, Hunter, who messaged us last week and say, I'm sure that you've just had discussions about him in the past, but Kike Hernandez has now had over a half season of games in the playoffs across multiple teams and is historically good, especially on the road, along with offering a ton of defensive flexibility. I was wondering how a team would value a player like this has value in the regular season, but becomes an MVP caliber player in the playoffs, especially on the road. Seems like something teams would value quite highly, especially for playoff aspirants. Is Kike theoretically one of the best value players in the majors at 6 million bucks? I mean, yeah, I guess given the actual production that we have witnessed in the postseason. Obviously the Dodgers value him highly. They, they seem to put stock in the playoff Kike phenomenon. And I remember talking about this last off season because KK was doing well then and we were talking about is this real? Is he actually this clutch? Is his true talent this much higher in October? And he hasn't been good in the regular season, really. And they have carried him and used him and the suggestion has been at least the quotes suggest that they actually think, okay, once the calendar switches to October, flip a switch, he's actually a better player now. And if you look at the numbers, I mean in a retrospective sense, it is undeniable. He had another good game in Game 2. He's having another solid series. So I, I looked on the FanGraphs postseason leaderboards and I was just doing a comparison that I've done before, maybe related to Kike Hernandez looking for the players who have raised their game the most in October relative to their regular season performance. And he has basically been the best postseason hitter of all time relative to his regular season output, at least with a substantial number of plate appearances. And you know, it depends where you put that minimum, obviously, but, you know, if we say like 150 postseason plate appearances, and I broke it down a couple ways, if you look at it in terms of the ratio of postseason OPS to regular season ops, which I think is probably the best way to do it, because you could just look at raw differential in ops. But then, you know, I think this better captures how Kike has elevated his game because, you know, given that his OPS in the regular season is. Is not so hot, you could have a smaller differential, and it would still be significant as a percentage basis on a ratio level. So if we set the minimum at 150 postseason plate appearances, then the best postseason hitter relative to the regular season is actually Randy Rosarena, who has been celebrated for his postseason success.

[A]

I would like to be able to celebrate him this postseason. Just like, I could offer a little note.

[B]

Yes. And he. He did finally hit a homer in game three. So, you know, who knows? Maybe he'll get going.

[A]

But getting going, he's.

[B]

He's best known for his 2020 performance, which was spectacular. Unbelievable. Yeah. I mean, for the raise 20 games, because that was, you know, 2020. It's expanded playoff field and everything. 86 plate appearances, 240 WRC plus 10 home runs. I mean, that was just a ridiculous display that he put on. Batted.377,442,831 that year and hit well in 2021 in a small sample and hit pretty well in 2023 in a small sample. Hasn't been so great in other years and hasn't been that great. Great this year either. But on the whole, he still has a. A ratio of postseason OPS to regular season OPS of 1.27. So he's, you know, been that much better. He has like a. A regular season OPS of.777 and a postseason OPS of.986 career. So he's been a good deal better on a percentage basis. But. But if we raise. So he's had a 168 postseason plate appearances, and I set the minimum again at. At 150. And if you're wondering how many players have even had that many postseason plate appearances. 206. We've had expanded playoffs long enough now that those player counts are starting to build up. So if we raise the plate appearance minimum to be just higher than Randy Rosarena, though, to exclude him, then it's KK. So if I set the minimum of 169 plate appearances, or, you know, 170 if you want a rounder number, but 169 plate appearances. There have been 160 postseason hitters who have had that many. And K. Hernandez, number one, with a ratio of 1.25 postseason OPS to regular season OPS. So 25% better. And remember, it's harder to hit in the postseason.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So it's, it's not as if it should be because you're facing way better pitching and defenses, and it's colder and all the rest. So the baseline expectation should be that you will be worse in the postseason. In fact, if we look. Okay, so these. I said 160 postseason hitters who have had this many plate appearances, and only 37 of them have a positive ratio of postseason OPS to regular season ops. Most of them have been worse in the postseason. And that's maybe even sort of a selective sample because I'm looking at guys who've played a lot of postseason games, which on the whole, you'd think might mean that they played pretty well in those postseason games, and yet few of them have actually been better in October than they are on the whole in their career. And TK's been. Been way better. I mean, regular season OPS career of 7:07, postseason OPS of 885. I saw some people pointing out that he has Reggie Jackson's postseason OPS, which is, which is true, you know, Mr. October, Reggie Jackson had an.885 OPS career in the playoffs, which is identical to Kike Hernandez's postseason OPS heading into Thursday's game. Game. The difference is that Reggie Jackson was a Hall of Famer who had an 8:46 regular season OPS, whereas Kike is just not a very good hitter on the whole. 707. So that's incredible. That ratio is higher than the number two guy, Carlos Beltran, who is known for being a playoff legend, and then George Brett, Pablo Sandoval, David Freeze, another playoff legend. You know, it's. You could go on in some notable names there, but. But Kik Hernandez, he's been the best of all of them. And this is now 94 games and 292 plate appearances. It's a lot. It's a lot. So is this real? I mean, it's certainly real in the sense that it happened and it was, it was worth a lot. Would I bet on it continuing to happen? I'm like, I'm starting to get to the point where I'll. I'll at least allow for the possibility that, that he would be better. I don't know if he'll be this much Better and he's getting older and all the rest. But you can't completely blame the Dodgers for buying into the mystique of October here because he's been doing this for a long time.

[A]

I don't know how to explain it. It's such a funny thing because it's like, I don't think, I think it means anything. I mean, it clearly means so much in the grand scheme of like the Dodgers and their postseason success. I think I, I, I don't know that I think there's anything in particular that is different in like a, in a meaningful way. But also it's enough that. Does it have to be different in a meaningful way? Like, is this, it can't just be vibes, right?

[B]

It's, I don't know, it's pretty impressive.

[A]

It's amazing.

[B]

Yeah. And, and he's, he's played in 10 postseasons and he's been an above average hitter in the postseason in seven of them and close in an eighth. Now, it's not infallible. He did have a bad postseason in 2018 when the Dodgers won the pennant, made it to the World Series, lost in the World series. He played 15 postseason games that year, 46 plate appearances, and he sort of stank. He had a 30 WRC plus. He batted.122, 217, 268 that postseason. So, so he has failed. But on the whole, he has succeeded marvelously. And yeah, I mean, he's done that. You know, nine of 10 trips have been with the Dodgers. The exception was 2021 with Boston, where he was fantastic too, in 11 games. 228 WRC plus, 2019, well, that was his highest WRC plus, but that was three games. I mean, you know, he's done this for a long time. And if you're a Dodgers fan or you're a teammate of his or hers, the front office watching him, you can't help but have a good feeling when Kik's coming up in October just because you've seen it so many times.

[A]

Well, it's such a funny thing because it's not a lot of games, right? And we've talked before about how hitters are streaky, hitters are streaky in a way that kind of goes underappreciated sometimes. Like, it's not, I would imagine, you know, like, is it impossible to put together a three game stretch, a ten game stretch, or you hit this? No, that's not impossible. Even if you're not like an amazing hitter, but like the ability to do it in a. Against postseason pitching feels impossible. It does feel impossible.

[B]

If he had, let's say a. A first half quote, unquote, let's say he, he hit this well, he had his postseason line entering the all Star break one season, we would still be thinking, wow, what a season he's having. Where did this come from? And yet he's done that now in October, when it's way harder to do over however many years. And I don't know if it's statistically significant. I'm not doing T tests here. I don't know how many standard deviations from this is or. It's obviously extremely improbable. Given as many players and as many post seasons and as many trials, would you expect by chance someone to exceed their regular season stats by this much? I don't know. Maybe it's probably still improbable, I would think. But yeah, yeah, because it's, it's hard to imagine what the mechanism would be because it's like, well, if he has this in him, why wouldn't he just be this good all the time? Right?

[A]

Right. Then it's makes $300 million on a contract.

[B]

Like, yeah. And it's.

[A]

He has every incentive to do this if he can do this.

[B]

Remember when people were talking about playoff Castellanos, like Nick Castellano's defense in the playoffs, when he would play defense? There was for at least a couple years there it seemed like he raised his game in the outfield in October and he said as much. He actually said that like it's hard for him to focus on every pitch, pitch every play all season long. And yet in October he's just super dialed in, which would be a form of clutchness. And that's interesting. And, but like, could that apply to kike? It's just like he, he can't get up for a regular season game. Like the adrenaline is not coursing through his veins and somehow he is able to channel that. And it's hard to imagine, but I.

[A]

Guess it's conceivable a quote to that effect, even like it wasn't. Didn't he offer something maybe to that effect? I am always struck, look, some of this is that now postseason Cassianis means something different. But sometimes I'm like, you know, you're.

[B]

On the record, right?

[A]

Like, that's kind of a wild thing to say. And he's not the only one, to be clear. Like, I didn't Mookie Betts have a thing a couple years ago about how he, he Zones out out there sometimes, but he thinks it helps him. Am I making that up?

[B]

I don't know.

[A]

Some comment where I was like, you really want to say that to a reporter? He's gonna write about it and then your org's gonna read it. Because, you know, I. I bet the Dodgers are like that. Mookie bets he doesn't try. No, I'm kidding. They clearly don't think that. But yeah, it's just like a. It does seem reasonable to me that you would be able to operate in a mental register during the playoffs that would be different than the regular season. Not because you don't care during the regular season, but because the regular season is 162 games and you can't. You can't sprint for a marathon. You know, you can't. You'll. You'll pull a hammy. You'll pull a mental hammy. You'll exhaust yourself. You'll experience burnout. There has to be some amount of quiet quitting, you know, but I. Yeah.

[B]

You got to pay.

[A]

I don't know, but you gotta pace yourself. But it is a weird thing to say, but it. But. But it's true. But it's weird, but it's. I don't know how to account for Kike. I mean, he does seem like a genuinely good hang. Yeah, but him being a good hang, the way you would expect that to manifest in some magic, is in his teammates, not in him. He's a good hang with himself, I imagine. All the time. He gets to live in his own had all the time. So why does that matter? Why would it matter, Ben? I don't know how to account for it.

[B]

It's approaching effectively wild email hypothetical territory. Like there should be something supernatural involved. But it's. It's been fun.

[A]

Both of the Hernandez's are making me feel kind of crazy in this postseason because it's like you have Kike, who's so locked in and playing so well, and then you have Te. Oscar, who is like Jekyll and Hyde in the same game sometimes. Jekyll and Hyde. I don't know why I'm shouting as if you can't hear me. Tay. Oscar will have like the worst outfield play I've ever, ever is too strong. One of the worst outfield plays I've ever seen. And then he hits a. What ends up being a game winning home run, right? He'll do that in one game. He'll have some of the dumbest base running I've ever seen. And then he's like an offensive force. Anyway, I just don't know what to make it to Oscar I and I, to be clear, I like to Oscar Hernandez. I. I felt so happy for him that he, like, found a place that was better for him to hit than T Mobile because, like, you know, bless buddy. That seems like a problem for a lot of guys. I don't bear him any ill will. I don't think he's a bad baseball player. I don't think he's, like, a dope, but he is like, he's capable of being so changing within one game. It's wild.

[B]

Well, whatever the origins of it, I hope it continues because I like there to be more magic and mystery in the world and something that we can't quite wrap our heads around because Quique being great in October, it's something that we can really marvel at now. Vlad Jr. Being great in October, which he has been. He had a couple cold games after a great series against the Yankees, and then he ramps up again in Game 3 and has four hits and he's almost cycling now. That's fun. And it's great for. For him to have that sort of success on this stage finally. Not that, like, he's been struggling so much, but, I mean, he just hasn't had as many opportunities. And Blue Jays just in general, and so love to see a star play like a star in a. A postseason series or an entire postseason, but it's not quite as confounding. It's like, well, yeah, he's. He's a really expert.

[A]

This is what you expect, right?

[B]

And so sometimes you have the unlikely hero in a single series, the light hitter who just, you know, like Ernie Clement in the alds, sort of, or, you know, Brian Doyle for the Yankees in the 1978 World Series or something like that. When Vlad does it, it's just, you know, you sit back and you enjoy it. I mean, you a Mariners fan, don't enjoy it necessarily, but as a baseball appreciator, you enjoy it because it's just fun to watch him put on a clinic and. And that's great. And we want stars to shine in the postseason, but it's a little more predictable, granted. Like, he's been even better than he usually is, but he's. He's a star. He's a slugger. He's the kind of guy that you expect to go off if someone is going to go off. And.

[A]

Right.

[B]

The Blue Jays collectively went off after looking off for the first two games of that series and probably Kirby was a bad matchup for them, just in the sense that he's often in the strike zone, he's around the zone, and they are aggressive, as we have seen, and they swing a lot. And so if you're pound in the zone, then you might get pounded by a team like the Blue Jays. Possibly that might be why Smoltz was in a slightly better mood in that game, because his beloved Blue Jays approach at the plate was. Was paying off again. But they suddenly looked like they had during the Yankees series.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Where you just couldn't get a ball by them. And they were just making contact with everything and making hard contact with everything. And it was a pretty impressive display again. And, you know, maybe it was on paper, kind of a bad matchup for them earlier in the series, but it just. They didn't do anything in those first couple games. But Kirby in particular seemed like, well, this might not be the best for the Mariners. And, and so your, your gripe with Dan Wilson was he didn't pull Kirby earlier.

[A]

Yeah, I think I have a gripe now. I understand some of the logic here. I, I'm not a dummy. I, I just. Part of the problem is that sometimes people, you get retweeted or reposted or whatever. I still call them retweets. You know, I still do. And then that's not technically right, but spiritually it is. And then, you know, you get people acting like it's your first day. I appreciate that first day energy because it's not my first day grizzled vet over here. But we have seen in the past postseason managers who sometimes their greatest strength is knowing when the game is lost and pivoting to their lower leverage guys and saving their better bullpen arms for the next day. And there are times when situationally you can't do that. Right. Because you're in a. An actual must win game. And you just have to, you know, tomorrow use problems or tomorrow use problems. Today you needs to win the baseball game. So sometimes, situationally, this decision is taken out of your hands. But like I think about Brian Snicker during the Bravery World Series run, and one of the things that I thought he did very well all throughout that postseason was he knew who his reliable bullpen arms were. And he was quick to. To say, this one has gotten away from us. We're gonna go to the low leverage arms, and then we're gonna preserve these good arms or better arms, these higher leverage arms to fight another day. And so that can be. I think that having a good Sense of that and calling the ball and maybe calling the ball a little early can be a very valuable skill for a manager. And despite having had the off day, if you throw Brash, if you throw Munoz, if you bring in Bizardo, you know, if you throw your higher leverage guy aspire, then maybe they're not available the next day and you've lost a close one. But the, the, the place where I felt a little bit of consternation with his decisions around Kirby was they had that five run inning. It was still only a three run margin. And you've had both the off day, the day before and then the, the game before that. You didn't throw any of your high leverage arms because they, you know, Gilbert managed to keep it close enough and then Polanco hits the three run shot and then they end up winning by a big margin. And so you're, you're bringing in guys like Emerson Hancock, you know, for his first postseason action. And so I, I guess I get saying, okay, it's, it's quite early. You have to, you're going to have to cover some number of innings with your less good guys. So maybe the second this, this doesn't stay as close and then you've burned your best arms and well, what do you do now? You're, now you're in the same fix you would have been in, except that you've burned, you've burned your best bullpen arms in what is essentially, if you want to think about it this way, a three game series. Except Ben, they could have been up 3 0, right. And you're gonna throw some of your lower lever charms anyway. So I just, just, I, I just was like they're clearly seeing him. Well, he's not getting great movement. He's not spotting it where he wants to. They're all over his. So is it, are you, are you actually worse off if you bring in, if you bring in one of your lower leverage arms then, and see what you get or you bring, you know what I mean? I just, I, I thought that they had an opportunity to do things a little bit differently than they did because what they could have potentially maybe done. What do they, what they could have potentially done is like so Barger makes the last out of the third. Do you go to one of your lower leverage arms and say maybe they can handle Ernie Clement and Jimenez and then you hope they get you through Springer and then you're maintain, you know what I mean? Like I just, and so I, I understand. I am approaching Dan Wilson's managerial decisions from a place of inherent skepticism because I don't think he manages the pitching staff like, as aggressively as he could have. And again, I understand you have this three game set like you have, you have margin, you have. But I just would have liked a little more urgency out of Dan Wilson in that moment because it was still a very winnable game. And then by the time Dan Wilson seemed like he had woken up, it was no longer an easily. It was no longer as easily a winnable, a winnable of a game. You know what I'm trying to say, right?

[B]

It's. I mean, we were kind of talking about this with Dave Roberts the other day when he left Kershaw in for that second inning. And the game was pretty close at that point. And it's not super low leverage, it's lower leverage than if you were winning and trying to protect the lead. But if you're down by a run or two, well, you're still very much in that. So it's not necessarily like, let's punt on this situation.

[A]

And so I'm not saying that it was like malpractice. I don't think that this was like a, a catastrophic decision. And again, I do understand some of the logic of it. You want to see if Kirby can course correct and give you a little more length, if only to, to bridge to those higher leverage guys. But I, I have to think that they were looking at it going, oh, no, George Kirby, it's not your night, buddy. Like, you don't have it. And so I found, I found myself experiencing some frustration in that moment. And I don't, I don't think it was because I had a sake. I, I don't. No. So that's understandable. Yeah, yeah, it is understandable. It's not, it's not be be sassy to the Megan her mentions. I shouldn't care so much about social media. This is the other thing I'm learning about this postseason. Although I've done a good job of not yelling at people on social media, I've done a good job of subsking, which is, which is where true, true heroes go. You know, that's the move of a, of someone possessed for your podcast of valor. Right. I get to talk on my own podcast a little bit as a treat.

[B]

Yeah, no, I think you have a good case here. And look, if you put in your low leverage guys that early in the game, they're probably going to give up some runs too. And, and maybe the Mariners probably lose that game one way or another. But I, I understand your thought process there and probably Bieber was good and I'm sure it stings a bit for Guardians fans to see him excelling on a postseason start. After the Guardians are. Yeah, you'd think probably.

[A]

But they're happy for him.

[B]

They seem like, I understand why they made that trade and it was somewhat surprising that they made the playoffs at all. I know that the option that he has and the money that would be due to him, that's kind of classic Guardians, right? Like, well, we're not going to keep him at this price. We might as well get something for him and then they end up in the playoffs and actually maybe they could use him. Not that he has been completely lights out either. He'd been somewhat homer prone, but you know, he did pretty well and the Blue Jays end up winning that game pretty easily. Now let me ask you this. I don't know how Humpy will be handled tonight, Thursday night, but Humpy won again in game three, and by that point they were already trailing by a significant margin.

[A]

Right.

[B]

I forget what the score was exactly at that point. And I guess they hit a, a couple late homers, you know, maybe energized by another Humpy victory. But should the Mariners, I don't know, should they keep trying to make Humpy happen? Because it was a special moment and there have been some pieces written about how that happened. Jake Mintz wrote one for Yahoo. Seattle Times. It was, it was not even a game time decision. It was like a mid game decision. They were just like, wait, this game is still going. Should we do another salmon run run? And is this the moment when Humpy should win and it worked out perfectly and then, you know, the Mariners win immediately after that and it appears almost to have been cause and effect. Probably wasn't. But people were hyped, the fans were hyped. Even the players were pretty hyped by that. And it was this really special moment. You can't really replicate those exact circumstances, but they sort of tried to. And we talked about this last time. Well, is this the new Etsy Witch? Like, do you need to keep having Humpy win as long as the Mariners are winning?

[A]

I don't think you do.

[B]

But now they lost. So now can they just go back to normal just like. Or do you. I mean, maybe they should stop scripting it. Maybe it shouldn't be like.

[A]

Right. I think you just let them run. I think.

[B]

Yeah, take your thumb. Take the team's thumb off the scale. Let them fish win. If, if Humpy can Win on his own merits.

[A]

We run the, The. The risk of the tech coated fish winning then. And I don't care for that as just like a broader statement about the region. But. But yeah, I wonder if you just let him. Just let him run, man. Because, like, in the first home game for Seattle, Humpy ran, Humpy lost, the Mariners lost. In the second home game for Seattle, Humpy ran, Humpy lost, the Mariners won. Okay. And then in. Obviously, famously in game five, Humpy runs, Humpy wins, Mariners win. But Humpy only. Only won the second time. Humpy had lost earlier that day.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Right, Humpy. So I think Humpy's influence is ambiguous. I think that Humpy's role in all of this is, well, like, obviously pretend. But beyond that, even if one wants to imbue real magic into the thing, you know, a mixed record at home has been a winner and a loser, and the Mariners have been a winner and a loser, and Humpy seems to. Here's what I'll say. I think Humpy's track record is not closely correlated. It's certainly not causal, but it's not even really correlated because, you know, sometimes Humpy wins, sometimes Humpy loses, sometimes the Mariners win, sometimes the Mariners lose, and then the Humpy, you know, and Humpy.

[B]

Yeah, maybe save it for. If you need another boost like they did in game five.

[A]

I don't think you can replicate that, man.

[B]

I don't think you can either.

[A]

I think it's. I think, look, Humpy. Humpy is showing up all over the Northwest. Humpy is going here and there and everywhere. Humpy is having a moment. I'm thrilled for Humpy. I have a Humpy plushie, and I'm not like a plushie person, you know, I'm really not. But there he is just on my bookshelf. Hey, Humpy, you know your little. It's got a. I love that. It has a life preserver and the. The ring, you know, it's got like the floaty and a life preserver. That's delightful, Ben. That's good. That's good.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That whole spread's a good lunch.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I'm just gonna make this a saying, and people are gonna be like, what is she talking about? And I'm gonna refer you to the guy with the gravelly voice from the QT commercial. It's. It's sort of similar to Buck Martinez, like, in terms of the. What I think the esophagus is doing while he's talking. Or it's like he's kind of I.

[B]

Don'T know that I've ever heard anything sound similar to Buck Martinez. And I. I say that with great affection.

[A]

Great affection.

[B]

Put.

[A]

I say this as a Mariners fan. Put Buck in there instead of Smoltz. That'd be a great time. That would be delightful.

[B]

That would be fun.

[A]

Put book in there, man. Like, maybe Smoltz gets trapped in a utility closet or something. I don't want any harm to come to Smoltz. I'm not sure advocating he get kneecapped or anything ridiculous like that. I'm just saying, like, maybe, you know, like in a cartoon, sometimes a guy will like be like, oh, I gotta show you something in this closet. And the guy's like, that's weird, but I guess that's where I'm going. And then he gets locked in there. And then.

[B]

Well, the good, good news, actually, I meant to mention this. We got an email from Patreon supporter Ruhi, who is a Blue Jays fan, Canadian, and pointed out in response to our conversation last time about how we wish that teams and fans got to enjoy their local broadcasters in the postseason. Blue Jays fans can actually.

[A]

Yes, they can.

[B]

Yeah. Ruhi wanted to mention this. Sure, you've heard about this already, but wanted to chime in about the local versus national announcing crews in the playoffs. Rogers seems to have struck a deal and Blue Jays games are being commentated on sportsnet by Dan Shulman and Buck Martinez. Same as always, even though there is also a national broadcast calling them in the U.S. this is what I always want from the playoffs and rarely get a local crew calling the games for a team they know very well and also has had the interesting effect for me, a Blue Jays fan, that I'm a little bit less stressed because it feels like watching any other game in a way.

[A]

Sure, that's interesting.

[B]

That makes sense.

[A]

Yeah, that makes sense.

[B]

They're also a great crew and I feel lucky to be able to watch them for so many bonus games this season. One delightful side effect of Rogers broadcasting postseason games is that they are overlaying their own ads on the green screens behind the plate, which means we get to see things. Like Rogers, proud owner of Canada's team at Yankee Stadium. You can fill in your own jokes. So, yeah, I'm glad they're getting to enjoy that. At least.

[A]

I think that that's delightful. And I hadn't thought about the way that it would make it less stressful. I. I was headed home yesterday from a. I dipped out for a folly game in the middle of the day because the schedule Allowed for it. And then we were a little late coming back because the game went on forever. And I was listening to the Mariners radio broadcast for like the first inning. I think really what happened yesterday was it was my fault because I changed venues and I had like good vibes in the car on the radio. And then I got home and I switched to just the, the broadcast. So I think it was really my fault.

[B]

You know, it's not Humpy. It's where you and or Ben Gibbard happened to be watching the game at any particular time.

[A]

You can tell that yesterday fell apart really fast because, you know, I don't want to overtax it, but I was like, I'm not even going to tax Ben, see how he's doing. It seems like this is just over. And then I watched a spooky movie instead.

[B]

So we agree about Humpy. I think either go back to normal or make it, you know, a shoot instead of a work. In. In wrestling terminology, make it unscripted or.

[A]

Shoot instead of a work.

[B]

Yeah, or I would say maybe you just keep it in your back pocket. If you end up in some other close game, extra inning situation and you're just trying to recapture that magic or call back to the first time, it probably won't work the same way or BS special, but maybe you need a boost, you need a lift late. Okay, you could go back to Humpy, but otherwise I think you can, you can stop trying to make Humpy happen. Probably Humpy has happened already, but, you.

[A]

Know, is this maybe the ultimate example of I can't believe I'm about to offer this. Is this maybe the ultimate example of you can't worry about future use problems? Right. Like, they, they had to, they felt like they had to change up the vibe in the, the ballpark. Not that it was bad during that 15 inning game, but they were like, we need, we need to get the crowd like, like amped again. And it's so long and they've been standing in this frustration and tension and rata that. And so they were just like, maybe they were saving Humpy winning for a later round, but they were like, I think we gotta let Humpy win. Just like see, see what happens. And now that vibe, they can't, they can't go back. They can't. They're like, they, they taxed their high leverage reliever already, you know, and they can't. There are no more innings on that arm.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

You can't let the Tech Fish win. So I think they have to keep scripting it they do sometimes let the tech fish win. Who won? Listeners let us know because you maybe were paying greater attention to this. Which fish won the salmon run with their game to win? Who. Who emerged triumphant that night?

[B]

Have that fish win again. Okay, we can end just a couple emails here. This one's from Emil. It relates to something we already discussed. So Emil is a Dodgers fan and says, let's grant Passen's premise that if the Dodgers win the World Series, there will be a prolonged lockout in loss season. If the Dodgers lose, the owners will back down from their salary cap positions. I don't grant the premise, but.

[A]

But for the purposes of the email, yeah.

[B]

As a Dodgers fan, is it ethically acceptable for me to still cheer for them this year? How do my needs stack up against those of the red rest of MLB fans? And then how much recent success must a team have so that the correct move is to step aside? 20, 25 Mariners, definitely not obligatory for them. 2,000 Yankees, maybe. Well, I certainly didn't feel that way as a fan of the 2001 Yankees. Is there ever a line? No, I don't think there is. I. If you're a fan of a team. Yeah, yeah, you could, you should react a little bit, bit differently if, if you've won. Let's, you know, me in 2001, did I weep? Absolutely. I wept when the Yankees lost in 2001. I was, you know, still a kid or a young teenager. I think if you were an adult Yankees fan in 2001 and you had won in 98 and 99 and 2,096 and you're in the World Series again, you still want to win. You still do. And there was September 11th and everything else that was in the background of that October. But you still want to win. But you should, I think, react a little differently. Right. Like if, you know, you got to give a grace period. You, you have to acknowledge we've had it pretty good lately. Okay. You know, wish we would have won, but I'm not going to be quite as down about this as I would be if, if we, you know, if, if I were a Mariners fan and they made it finally to the World Series and they lost. Well, that's different from if you have won even one championship recently. Right. But I don't think there's ever a point where you, as a real staunch fan of a team, say, you know what it is in the best interests of baseball. It's from a utilitarian perspective. It's probably better for the world if The Mariners finally win one, then the Dodgers, the big bad Dodgers win one again. Maybe on some intellectual level, you accept that and if you lose, you lose with, with the good grace and, and say, okay, you know, good for them. I'm glad they got one finally. But you still want to win. If you're a fan of a team, it's a selfish activity, right? Like you're, you're throwing all that stuff out the window and you're saying, I want the gratification of winning this World Series. That's what fandom's all about. I think.

[A]

I also just think that, like, fans give enough to the game. You don't have to be responsible for what your owner, the owner of your favorite team does or what other owners do, right? You're giving the game your time. You're giving the game your treasure, whether it's an MLB TV subscription, your cable sub gate revenue, jerseys. Fans give enough. And they're not responsible for the mercurial, greedy interests of owners. They're just not. You know, you're doing, you're giving your time and attention and money to the game already. You don't, you don't know it any thing more than that. You don't even know it that you know, you get to check in and out as you see fit. But I don't think that anything that a fan can, can hope for, because here's the thing. As much as I have spent the last half hour of the podcast contemplating that a giant fish puppet or my geographic location has an influence on the outcome of a particular game, how you feel about your team doesn't affect the outcome of whether or not they win the World Series. It just doesn't. You know, we like to think that it does, but it doesn't. So you get to feel however you want to. It makes as much difference as the Etsy Witch, which is to say I don't really any difference at all. And so I think it's fine to, to want them to win. Because if, if the Dodgers winning a World Series in 2025, in a year when they didn't even get a buy, is enough to tip the sport into labor chaos. It was going to tip into labor chaos no matter what. Guess what? It'll tip into labor chaos in all likelihood if they lose. Because that's just the bullet train we're on right now. So I wouldn't worry about it. I think if they win, you get to have a nice time. You just get to enjoy it. You didn't. It's not, it's not your fault, you know, you are Matt Damon and I'm Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Okay. All right. And then a couple pedantic terminology, ones inspired by playoff games. Here's, I suppose, a suggestion from Dominic, a possible pedantic proposal. Our friends at Cesspedus Family Barbecue already roll with the mop as the preferred terminology for the four game sweep. I think the two game sweep should go by the dusting. It's a lighter version of sweeping and also implies that the losing team was just a mild annoyance and can be brushed off in just the two games without even requiring the winner breaking a sweat as the premier baseball tastemakers. Not sure that's the case. Let's make it happen. I did express some discomfort with calling a two game sweep a sweep. It just, it feels wrong somehow. I agree. I guess it's technically okay, but it just when the series is shorter than even a regular, regular season series, to call it a sweep, it just sounds like you're giving it delusions of grandeur or something. It sounds like it's more impressive than it is is really because it's just a two game winning streak. That's all it was. So I like the idea of having something that conveys what happened but is just a little less majestic sounding than the sweep. So yeah, the dusting, I don't, I don't mind it.

[A]

I do, because a mop is like a, a similar implement to a broom, which is what you use to sweep, but a duster isn't often isn't an implement at all. And I, I think it pushes it too far afield. Also, Ohtani tripled and Mookie Betts doubled him home and the brewers do not have any outs and it's bottom two. They do have a three zero count on Will Smith though.

[B]

So I was gonna say it's, you know, Ohtani up to this point has not hit very well this postseason, but with a game he's starting, it's like he has a route to redemption that no one else really has. You know, usually when, when the playoff hitter isn't hitting, oh, it's bad, it's the end of the world. It's oh, is this guy a joker? And whatever else. If Ohtani doesn't hit but turns in a great start, then it's like all is forgiven and forgotten, really. I mean, especially if the Dodgers advance and win, which I guess makes it more demoralizing for everyone if Otani doesn't even hit that well and they still just cruise to A pennant, but, you know, they'd rather have him hit, too. But if he has some dominant start, it's, it's just a, a way to redeem yourself that most or all other playoff hitters don't have available to them. They can't really do anything. I mean, they could make some great defensive plays, I guess, or something, but to be able to go out there and shove that would pretty quickly make people forget that you hadn't been hitting.

[A]

I think that you are right in a general sense. But you know, who won't forget that he didn't hit? I think it really bothers Dave Roberts when Shohei Ohtani doesn't hit. And I say that because he went so far as to say that he does not think that they can win the World Series. Now, there are qualifiers to this, but he thinks that, that Ohtani getting going is like, important to them winning the World Series. And he said that, he said that between rounds.

[B]

And like, it certainly would help.

[A]

It certainly would help. But also I was just like, I get, I get it. He's in a little slump here. He did pitch quite well. So I, I think you're right, but I think there is an important audience of one that is like, can't you hit a little bit, though? But he did. He just, he hit a triple. Will Smith struck out. This is going to be great for our listeners.

[B]

Yeah, I know. Just the play by play of the first inning that happened hours and hours ago. Hours ago.

[A]

Hours and hours ago.

[B]

Yeah, his first, his first start was pretty good. It wasn't like the greatest. It wasn't, you know, Snow Yamamoto or anything like that, so. Well, sure, yeah. Okay. Anyway, I'm, I'm more okay with the dusting, I think, because I think, I think a, A mop and a sweeper and a. I think they're in the same sort of family. Like even you might dust and not have to sweep. It's like, oh, there's some, you know, we could do some dusting, but it doesn't really rise to the level of needing to, to sweep. Needing to get the broom out. Right. I know you're dusting the floor probably, Ben.

[A]

What are you talking about?

[B]

Yeah, but, but still.

[A]

Okay, so first of all, you should always, if you're gonna sweep or more. More aptly vacuum, you should dust before you do that so that if stuff gets on the. Freddy Freeman just walked. Still just the one out. Runners on first and second now. Tommy Edmonds up to bat. I think this is fun. Great whole spread. It's A good lunch. I'm gonna make it happen. I just love the way the guy says it. This whole. That whole spread is a good lunch. He's talking about, like, gas station tacos.

[B]

Gonna have to link to this ad for people who have no idea what you're talking about, but. Okay. So you're more anti dusting. I. I think I'm okay with the dusting. I kind of like it. We just want.

[A]

I just think that part of it is that you don't. I mean, like, maybe you dust with, like, one of those little, like, extender guys. Like, I have one of those little extender guys so you can reach up into, like, the corner, you know, or, like, get the top of the. The hood of your. Of your range, you know, maybe you need a little implement, but you're not. It's like, on. And I understand. I understand that it's like, it's two games, so you want it to indicate less, but, like, a sweep is with a thing on the floor, and a mop is with a thing on the floor, and you're not done dusting. Yeah, on the floor.

[B]

They're both cleaning, but yeah.

[A]

Anyway, they're different kinds of cleaning. It's different.

[B]

I like the suggestion.

[A]

That's fine. We can disagree. It doesn't happen very often. They're bringing in Misarowski.

[B]

Well, hey, my prediction about just seeing more relievers and starters as relievers already coming true before the episode's even over. We're starting to see that happen. Okay. And then here's a question from Adam, who said in the Dodgers Phillies series, the teams were separated by one run. The trailing team had a runner on second. Don't remember exactly when this was. The pay by play announcer said several times that that runner holds or carries the tying run. This immediately hit my ear. Weird. I guess I'm used to hearing that a runner represents the tying run, which implies a different relationship between the runner and the run run than holds. To me, this seems to suggest that every baserunner is in possession of a run at all times and somehow redeems or cashes in that run when they cross the plate. What are your thoughts? To base Runners carry runs with them, bringing them to home? Or do they merely represent runs they're crossing the plate, being a signal that a run has been scored? I. I do think it's more the latter. I think it's, like.

[A]

Because, like, you're basically the runner.

[B]

Yeah. You basically embody the run or the potential for a run to be scored. So I guess in a Sense like you're, you're carrying the responsibility of a run. It's all resting on you. Well, also the person who drives you.

[A]

In, probably the other thing.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, no, that would sound strange. I didn't notice this. I don't know if I was listening, but if I heard that a runner holds the tying run or carries the tying run, that that would, would probably stand out to me. I mean, maybe I did hear it and it didn't stand out to me, but that is not what I would say or what most people say, I think. So I, yeah, represent, I think is kind of the typical consensus way to refer to that. I don't know. It's interesting, but I guess it's not wrong that like the runner is kind of, you know, you're holding that in your hands in a way but. Or your legs, your feet, whatever ends up touches whatever ends up touching home plate to score that run.

[A]

But yeah, like Jesus.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. It's.

[A]

Yeah, exactly.

[B]

It's non standard usage, I would say. And I don't know that it adds anything for me or makes it more accurate.

[A]

Be the way I would say it. It really wouldn't be the way I'd say it. But yeah, no, okay.

[B]

And then Alex, a Patreon supporter, says, while watching ALCS Game 2, John Smoltz said something that struck me as weirdly backward. Quote, great take on a great pitch. The two usually don't exist or I don't know if he said coexist, but Alex says exist. From the perspective of the pitcher, Smoltz's statement feels true. The majority of great pitches do not result in great takes. Many great pitches are strikes, fouls, or weekly hit outs. One might even surmise that some carefully sequenced great pitches result in relatively easy takes takes. However, from the perspective of the batter, wouldn't the opposite be true? Don't the vast, vast majority of great takes occur on great pitches almost definitionally? What other than the quality of the pitch really makes a take great? Maybe if it leads to a walk off walk or some other unusually beneficial ball. 4. I could consider some of those takes great even if the pitches are not great. Or perhaps a poorly located pitch can be offset by virtue of quality tunneling and strong sequencing on previous pitches such that a great take is still possible. Even this feels like splitting hairs. How often, if ever, do you think a batter laying off a pitch that is not great could be considered a great take?

[A]

I think you can have a great take on a great pitch. I. I agree that it is not the way that that is normally said, like you don't normally think of, but like you can have like a really good pitch that like most guys would swing at and then, and then the guy doesn't and you're like, oh, that was a great pitch. But that was a great take too. Like, I think they can sit, I think they can sit together.

[B]

Yeah. So you're siding with Alex here, that, that it shouldn't be unusual that a great take would happen on a great pitch. And maybe that's the pitcher in Smoltz coming out here.

[A]

I am agreeing, but I also, I, I, maybe I need to hear him say, I don't remember hearing him say it and going like, oh, why are you so surprised?

[B]

I may have had him muted at that point. I don't know if I was actually listening. But no, I think maybe that's a pitcher speaking as a pitcher. But even, even as a pitcher, if you threw a great pitch that's, well, it could be great irrespective of the outcome. Like does the, does whether the batter takes this as like a process versus outcome kind of thing. It could be a great pitch. Even if it doesn't, like, even if the batter does take, even if it doesn't induce a chase or something, it could still have been a great pitch and then it's just a great take. Right. But I guess, yeah, you might not usually say great pitch because if the batter doesn't swing, then it just, it might look like the pitch that missed. It may not have missed. It missed the strike zone. But maybe you weren't even aiming for the strike zone. You were trying to get the batter to expand and they laid off. And so I guess if it were a truly great pitch, I guess it just would have been irresistible. There's no way you could have taken it. You just would have been compelled to swing. So maybe it does reduce the greatness slightly. But hitters are great too, and sometimes they do great things also, even if the great thing is not doing anything, not not swinging. So I agree that they absolutely can coincide, but you might be less likely to compliment how great the pitch was if you don't get the result of the chase that you were seeking. Cuz so much analysis does tend to be results based.

[A]

Yeah, that's true. Yeah. Tommy Edmonds struck out swinging and say Oscar was called out on strikes.

[B]

So despite game day playlog over here. Yeah, except way delayed.

[A]

Way. Well, it's pretty, it's pretty up to date from my perspective.

[B]

For me it is. Yes. Right. But for no one else, unfortunately. Okay, well, that's interesting. That's counter to what we usually say about people regarding things in baseball from the offense's perspective. And maybe Smoltz was not doing that because Smoltz is a pitcher, so that makes some sense. But I think I'm with Alex that maybe you could have a great take just the situation. It's just you're over eager, you know, you want to. To get that run in or whatever. Or it's. I don't know, you could maybe have a great take on a less than great pitch just because it's so hard to hold up given the pressure of the moment or something. But I think usually if it is a great take, it probably it has to be a pretty enticing pitch for it to be a great take or else it would be a routine take, really. Okay. All right. And lastly, this is more of a prompt. I don't know if we'll have an immediate answer, but I'll throw it out to the listeners and solicit response. Responses. This is from Michael Patreon supporter. With all the talk about sports heroes obtaining never having to buy a drink slash meal in the region again status. So you know, some sports hero. Yeah, you never have to. Yeah, never have to pay for a meal and that we talked about whether this even still applies, et cetera. It got me thinking about Aaron Boone. I may have even mentioned Boone. He definitely had never having to buy a drink in the New York City area from the 2003 home run versus the Red Sox. But I would guess now with his managing exploits, if you can call them that over the last eight years and countless calls for him to be fired, that he has lost his never have to buy a drink status. Although with Yankees fans, if he wins a World Series, maybe he gets his status restored for one year or at least until he makes his first pitching change of spring training the following year. Short of committing some kind of crime, can you think of other players who have lost that status? I'm sure there must be others, but I can't think of any off the top of my head. So I'll just throw that out to the audience. Who has had that heroic status. Oh, he'll never have to buy a drink in this town again and has lost it. And I guess so. Yes, if we exclude off the field disgraces of some sort, you know, some sort of scandal or something. Okay. But beyond that, I think probably there's. There might be other manager situations where you were kind of like a hometown hero and Then you were not as distinguished as a manager. I, I may have even mentioned this, like with the, the rumors reports about Albert Pujols interviewing for managerial jobs. It's like, yeah, if, if you're a great player, but you're not as great a manager and it's tough to be as great as a manager. If you were a really, truly legendary player, then. Right, yeah, that status can wear off. It makes you seem more mundane in a way also because it's fairly rare these days for a truly great like Frank Robinson type player to go on to be a manager or Ted Williams, you know, guys who used to do that. I guess that was always more of the exception than the rule. But especially now, you make so much money as a star player, you may not just want to subject yourself to that grind and the skill sets may not transfer. So many managers are, if they were players at all, were not great players. And so maybe they're more distinguished as a manager. But it's almost like if you're a great player, you, you almost bring yourself down in status or certainly in salary. If you're just a run of the mill manager after, or even a good manager. Unless you're like, you know, a Joe Tory who was like a near hall of Fame level player and then became a Hall of Fame manager.

[A]

Right.

[B]

But it's pretty tough if you start as like a Hall of Fame level player. Not that Aaron Boone was, but he had a moment like that. So yeah, who, who had that and lost it. Whether because they just hung around that organization and didn't do anything as distinguished after that and the thrill wore off, or because if you're like, you know, you show up to Old Timers day once in a while, but otherwise you're just not seen. And so whenever anyone sees you, they immediately identify you with that moment. They associate you with, oh, the greatest moment of your career, great moment of your fandom. But if you're a manager, you're there every day, you're part of the scenery. So even if you are a good manager, you just, you don't go immediately to, oh, that home run. Right. So either that or maybe you had one of those moments but then you subsequently stunk, I guess would be, you.

[A]

Know, if you just you or, or you swap like, is Craig Council getting treated right, right. You know, in the city of Milwaukee anymore? Hazardous guess. No. You know, so I think that, yeah, maybe Council especially because he doesn't remember burgers or something. Complained about burgers.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Never saw Caleb Durbin tripled Fall league Fall League Hero Caleb Durbin Fall League Stolen Beat Record Holder Caleb Durbin well, the once in the once in future.

[B]

Brewer Grumpkin is going wild. So I'm going to end this episode. But if anyone has any other suggestions for that someone who yeah, you had your moment but then you you tarnished your career with with subsequent choking in big moments or just an unremarkable rest of your career, maybe let us know know. Well, in case you depend on Meg's play byplay on the podcast to tell you the outcome of postseason games, I will clue you in that though the Dodgers didn't hold that one nothing lead, they did ultimately win the game 3 to 1. Another offensive outage by the brewers combined with fine pitching by the Dodgers. We're now one game away from a pennant. Which means that our Patreon live stream on Friday night will showcase Shohei Otani pitching for the Clinch lynch so hey, a home team finally won a game in this round. Unfortunately for Meg, the home team did not win Thursday's ALCS game. The Blue Jays evened it up, beat the Mariners 8 to 2 to even the series at 2. Another homer by Vlad A defensive clinic by Addison Barger close enough to vintage Max Scherzer. Attitudinally vintage Mad Max gave us an indelible bark on the mound as he refused to come out of the game. So things have gotten interesting in that series at least. More to come next time. Oh, and in case you were wondering, Humpy lost two. Meg's least favorite Salmon Silver won the salmon run. That's the tech coded one. You know, I was thinking we answered a question from Emil earlier about whether Dodgers fans should feel bad about potentially winning yet another World Series and say, hey, let's give someone else a turn. He was asking about that from an ethical perspective, but from a self interest angle, let's say you actually did believe believe that if the Dodgers won a World Series this year that it would significantly increase the odds of a salary cap. That would restrict the Dodgers ability to outspend everyone plus the increased odds of a lost season in 2027. When you still have some of your current stars under contract, then might you say, you know what, if we go back to back, if we repeat, there will be too much heat on us, so it's actually better to lie low. We'll lose this series and that will work out for us in the long run because we will maintain our OR institutional advantages and will remain a perpetual playoff machine. And then we'll win more titles in the future. Even if we lose most of the time than we would if we caused a crackdown because we won too much in too short a span of time. I guess there's an argument for that, but I don't think it's a winning one because a I don't really believe that the Dodgers winning this World Series would hugely increase the odds of a change to the system that would restrict their expected titles in the future. Two championships just aren't so easy to come by that you can say, ah yeah, we can afford to drop this one. We'll make it up in the future. And Dodgers fans know that because they went years without winning one, even though they were making the playoffs every year. So a bird in the hand worth two in the bush, a World Series in the hand worth some nebulous expectation of additional titles in the future. One other thing that I thought was mildly interesting the Guardians resigned Austin Hedges. Okay, I know my bar for what constitutes interesting might be lower than yours here, but he signed the same deal that he has had with the Guardians in each of the past two seasons. One year, $4 million with some incentives. Clearly he's happy there. They're happy with him and with his defensive performance. This was actually by Fangraph's war, his most valuable season since 2019 because it was also his best offensive season since 2018, which is not saying much because we're talking about Austin Hedges here. He had a 51 WRC plus. His career average is 50, but he did give them good defense as usual, almost 10 framing runs in fewer than 500 innings behind the plat. I guess based on his performance he may have even been in line for a raise, which he didn't get. Probably just the boilerplate Austin Hedges contract. Here you go. Re up for another year. But of course this will be the first year with the Challenge system and this suggests to me that the Guardians don't believe his value will be diminished by the Challenge system, which might take away some framing value on the margins. At least some pitches that he might have turned into strikes will instead be balls. But it's not as if we're going to get full ABs guess next season. Now if that happened, I'd venture to guess that Austin Hedges would not have gotten this same deal because that framing value would be erased. As it is, much of it should be preserved, plus his pitch calling value and his working with pitchers value, his clubhouse guy value, his knowing his role as the backup value, etc. But he could be the canary in the coal mine if teams thought the Challenge system was going to reduce the value of defensive catchers and framing first catchers, then that would probably be reflected in his salary. So I guess that's a sign that yes, catchers should still be quite important in the challenge system era. And of course they'll be doing a lot of the challenging, so there's some potential for value there too. There's also value for you and for us. If you sign up to support the podcast on Patreon, which you can do by going to patreon.com effectivelywild and subscribing on a monthly or yearly basis to help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks. Perks as have the following five listeners Mark Spencer, Frankhouse, Kwai Lin, Carter Roesch and Paul Klein. Thanks to all of you, Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams coming up soon, prioritized email answers, personalized messages, discounts on merch and ad free fangraphs memberships, and so much more. Check out all the [e-mail] effectivelywild if you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastancrafts.com you can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook [e-mail] group effectivelywild. You can find the effectively wild subreddit at r effectivelywild and you can check the show notes at fan Graphs or the episode description in your podcast app for links of the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with one more episode before the end of the week, which means we will talk to you soon.

[A]

I want banter with new arms.

[B]

From.

[A]

Two hosts who are the girl I just man who want.

[B]

Nothing less than.

[A]

Effectively wild oh wild oh wow.

[B]

Nothing less than effectively wow.