Effectively Wild Episode 2395: "Momentum is the Next Day’s Starting Podcast"

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (A), Meg Rowley (B)
Date: October 31, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode revolves around the exceptional postseason performance of Blue Jays rookie pitcher Treya Savage, the puzzle of momentum in baseball, contrasting postseason outputs of Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and a discussion of player quirks and broader league trends as the World Series nears its end. Ben and Meg dig deep into rookie stardom, prospect evaluations, playoff hitting versus regular season approaches, the state of the Dodgers, players' unique rituals, and what (if any) predictive value "momentum" has in the postseason.

Main Discussion Segments

1. Treya Savage’s Meteoric MLB Ascension

Timestamps: [01:01]–[23:16]

• Rapid Rise & Massive Impact
  Savage, a Blue Jays rookie, has made only eight MLB starts—five in the postseason—yet is already a potential World Series MVP.
• Still a Prospect…?
  Despite his October heroics, Savage is technically rookie and prospect-eligible for 2026.

  "He is still extremely rookie eligible. Postseason innings don't count toward [that]." – Ben [01:20]

• Draft Pick Value
  Conjecture about whether getting one whirlwind season and a potential ring is “worth” the 20th overall pick:

  "If he achieved nothing else in his baseball career, that right there would be a win." – Ben [02:17]

• Spectacular World Series Outing
  Recap of his 12-strikeout gem with no walks against the Dodgers, and his mastery—especially of his splitter and slider working in tandem.
• Prospect Ranking Conundrum
  Even after this, where should he rank among prospects? Ben relays Eric Longenhagen’s view:

  "He said that he would be...number 13 for him right now.” – Ben [11:09]

• Context Versus Projection
  Ben muses on the “career value” already banked by Savage:

  "It’s all gravy from here on out, essentially." – Ben [14:44] Meg adds caution: "Development isn’t linear. Trey Savage is a pitcher. They famously don’t stay healthy." – Meg [16:09]

• Mental Makeup and Poise Both hosts are struck by how unflappable Savage seems under pressure, evidenced by a memorable Jeff Passan anecdote:

  “This is fun... I love this.” [as Savage faces hostile Dodger fans before Game 5] – [18:03]

2. The Ohtani vs. Vlad Jr. Postseason Showdown

Timestamps: [23:23]–[32:46]

• Production Distribution
  Ohtani has the bigger “signature” games with clustered home runs, Vlad has a steadier, spread-out output:

  "Vlad has eight homers in eight different games. Ohtani's have come in four games… three have been multi-homer." – Ben [25:46]

• Who Would You Rather Have?
  Meg leans slightly toward Vlad for the “constant threat,” but acknowledges both cases:

  “How are you to do such a thing? ...but the constancy of Vlad’s performance has been just so impressive to me.” – Meg [28:20] "If I had to…would give the slight edge, I think, to Vlad." – Meg [32:46]

• Big Game vs. Steady Value
  Discussion about postseason legacies, context-dependent stats, and “choosing between your children” in terms of favorite players.

3. Dodgers’ Struggles: Bullpen, Defense, and Fatigue

Timestamps: [34:05]–[44:27]

• Bullpen & Defensive Woes
  Consistent issues, especially with left field defense (Teoscar Hernández's misadventures in right):

  “He should not be playing right field. He should not be playing anywhere in the field preferably, but definitely not there.” – Ben [36:35]

• Bats Go Cold – What’s the Reason? Ben and Meg discuss analyses suggesting the Dodgers may be fatigued (with reference to swing speed data and “pressing”):

  “Is there any difference? ...if you squint, you can kind of see it… but as he acknowledged, it’s such a small sample…” – Ben [40:19]

• Old Lineup Theory
  They joke about being tired in their late 30s:

  “Freddie Freeman is 36 and sometimes you’re tired, you know?” – Meg [46:50]

4. Momentum: Myth, Reality, and Narratives

Timestamps: [44:27]–[56:40]

• "Momentum is the Next Day’s Starting Pitcher"
  Both hosts are skeptical about the predictive value of momentum:

  “I’m not a big momentum man...I don’t ascribe much or attribute much importance to, the, the big Mo.” – Ben [50:22] “It’s not, like, fated… not an intelligent force putting its thumb on the scale.” – Meg [54:10]

• How Postseason Hyperanalysis Warps Perspective
  Ben suggests a regular-season “bit” where every week is analyzed like the postseason to show the distortions of playoff scrutiny:

  “It’s so strange how we cover postseason baseball...the hyper fixation on single games.” – Ben [51:50]

5. Mookie Betts: Slump or Sign of a Decline?

Timestamps: [58:18]–[64:19]

• Ben’s Assessment:

  “He’s looked quite bad. He doesn’t have a barrel in this series... but would I count out Mookie Betts to have a big game? Absolutely not.” – Ben [58:18]

• Meg’s Assessment:

  “He just looks so dead at the plate...like you, I don’t want to say, oh, well, he can’t ever [recover], but...I’ll be very curious to see what he looks like in spring.” – Meg [60:09]

• Discussion on Aging, Weight Loss, and Position Changes.

6. Dodgers’ Roster Construction: Who Plays Shortstop Next Year?

Timestamps: [64:19]–[68:09]

• Mookie at Short:
  Both hosts regard Betts as a good defensive shortstop—but wonder how sustainable this is given his age and background.
• Roster Speculation:
  Who might replace him? Is Alex Freeland ready? Would a big-ticket shortstop acquisition move Betts elsewhere?

  “I think that Betts will just be their starting shortstop next year…” – Meg [67:03]

7. “Dodgers Broke Baseball” – Media Narratives and CBA Outlook

Timestamps: [68:09]–[77:57]

• Does a Dodgers win/loss change CBA/Salary Cap arguments? Both hosts dismiss the notion that Series outcome will sway owners’ labor positions.

  “It will absolutely affect the volume of that take, right? ...But it will not really give us that much more information about the competitive landscape.” – Ben [68:33] “They want a salary cap. They will find an argument to fit that desire no matter the series result, because that’s what they want. They want to pay the players less.” – Meg [71:46]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Savage’s Mindset (via Jeff Passan):

  “This is fun, [pitching coach] Pete. I love this.” – Treya Savage (as recounted by Ben) [18:03]

• On Playoff Momentum:

  “Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.” – (Echoing Earl Weaver, paraphrased by both hosts) [50:20] “It’s not an intelligent force that’s putting its thumb on the scale.” – Meg [54:10]

• On Vlad vs Ohtani:

  “If I had to…would give the slight edge, I think, to Vlad.” – Meg [32:46]

• On Dodgers’ Defensive Trouble:

  “He’s borderline unplayable out there…he should not be playing right field.” – Ben [36:35]

• On Hypothetical Postseason Overanalysis:

  “I always have some perverse desire to do a bit where during the regular season we would just…cover that month as if it were the postseason.” – Ben [51:47]

Fun Segment: Davis Schneider’s Batting Stance Impressionism

Timestamps: [78:13]–[92:52]

• Davis Schneider, Blue Jays infielder, experiments with 20–25 different big leaguer stances per year, “plagiarizing” the likes of Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, even Bryce Harper (lefty).

  “He is just sort of a serial plagiarist of other players' batting stances…if a setup works for one of the game's elite hitters, maybe it'll help him too.” – Ben [80:29] “I think people would mostly be flattered by it…” – Meg [85:44]

• Playful debate over whether this would annoy or amuse players—would Tom Pham take offense? Would Aaron Judge be dismissive? A riff on baseball’s imitation culture and the limits of “originality.”

Quick Hits & Listener Mail

Timestamps: [92:52]–[End]

• Entertaining bits:
  • Addison Barger, Blue Jays prospect, is compared to actors James Marsden and Josh Hartnett by listeners.
  • New York Times crossword reportedly misses zombie runner rule nuance.
  • The baseball etymology of "the catbird seat" traced back to Red Barber and James Thurber.

Summary Table of Key Timestamps

| Topic | Start | Highlights | |-------------------------------------- |------- |------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Treya Savage’s Postseason Impact | 01:01 | Rookie status/appraisal, mentality, prospect value, rankings | | Ohtani vs. Vlad Jr. October | 23:23 | Clustered vs. steady production, big moments vs. reliability | | Dodgers’ Defensive/Bullpen Troubles | 34:05 | Teoscar’s defense, Trinen’s usage, bullpen struggles | | Hitting/Lineup Fatigue Theories | 39:20 | Discussion of fatigue, swing changes, age, small sample caveats | | “Momentum” as Myth | 44:27 | Dismantling postseason momentum narratives | | Mookie Betts' Slump & Future | 58:18 | Recent struggles, lasting value, positional questions | | Dodgers Roster Construction | 64:19 | Next year’s shortstop, rookies, FA targets | | “Dodgers Broke Baseball” Narratives | 68:09 | CBA, salary cap, impact of series outcome (or lack thereof) | | Davis Schneider’s Batting Impression | 78:13 | Mimicry as development, baseball culture on copying | | Listener Questions & Etymology | 92:52 | Player/actor lookalikes, crossword disputes, 'catbird seat' origin |

Overall Tone

Witty, wonky, and unsentimental. Ben and Meg combine statistical rigor, dry humor, and a self-aware skepticism about baseball’s worn-out narratives—eschewing hot takes for thoughtful, often self-referential analysis and affectionate roastings of the game's quirks.

For Further Listening

Start at:

• [01:01]: Treya Savage breakdown and prospect implications
• [23:23]: Vlad vs Ohtani and performance patterns
• [44:27]: Momentum and how postseasons are analyzed
• [78:13]: Davis Schneider’s batting stance impressions—an EW-style tangent in full bloom

Effectively Wild's analysis in this episode is essential listening for a thoughtful baseball fan wanting to understand October, rookie hype, and why, no matter what happened last night, there's always a deeper story beyond the box score.