Effectively Wild Episode 2397: The Slightly-Less-Long Offseason

Date: November 5, 2025
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)
Guest: Eric Longenhagen (FanGraphs Lead Prospect Analyst)
Theme: Setting the table for a slightly shorter and more action-packed baseball offseason—prime focus on the international market, WBC anticipation, and the evolving landscape of MLB managerial hires.

Episode Overview

In the first truly "forward-looking" episode of the offseason, Ben and Meg tee up a wide-ranging, insightful conversation covering:

The impact of upcoming international free agents from Asia,
The transformative effect of high-profile international signings in recent MLB seasons,
Discussion of the World Baseball Classic (WBC) and its changing status among American players,
A rundown and analysis of recent MLB managerial hires and what the variety suggests about modern baseball leadership,
An in-depth scouting breakdown — with Eric Longenhagen — of the most intriguing international players who could soon arrive in MLB.

1. The "Shorter" Offseason & Its Silver Linings

Timestamps: 00:39–13:46

Ben and Meg open by noting this offseason feels shorter, not only because Opening Day is early (March 26), but also due to the return of the World Baseball Classic (March 5–17).
The WBC, which drew unprecedented US attention in 2023, is expected to be a focal point for global baseball fans, shrinking the emotional “gap” between seasons.
Quote — Meg Rowley [03:48]:
"The gap between [international and US WBC engagement] is rapidly collapsing in a way that I think is really terrific. ... There has been a shift among American players about the WBC: the perception of that event among players has really changed in the last, call it, ten years."
Both hosts discuss player excitement, but also acknowledge persistent issues: reluctance by MLB teams to allow their best pitchers to participate and the persistent challenge of recruiting managers for Team USA due to spring training conflicts.
Memorable Moment — Ben joking about MLB managers’ schedules:
"You can't really get special dispensation—let's just take Dave Roberts and send him to manage the WBC team."

2. Free Baseball (Winter Leagues) and Year-Round Fandom

Timestamps: 12:11–13:46

Meg encourages fans aching for baseball to tune in to winter leagues (specifically LIDOM, the Dominican Winter League, available via MLB.tv) and enjoy the colorful foreign-language broadcasts, idiosyncratic commercials, and fringe MLB prospects.

3. The 2025 Managerial Carousel: Diversity in Hires and What it Means

Timestamps: 13:46–27:33

Ben and Meg recap a flurry of managerial hires—perhaps the most eclectic set in recent memory.
- Examples:
  - Walt Weiss (recycled, traditional path: player → bench coach → manager)
  - Blake Butera (Nationals; just 33 years old, youngest in 50+ years, minor league manager/development background)
  - Derek Shelton (Twins; previously bench coach and best friends with outgoing Rocco Baldelli)
  - Craig Albernaz (Orioles; bench/associate manager, ex-catcher, Rays coaching tree)
They discuss the “biodiversity” of managers—ranging from college coaches to backup catchers to analytics-driven front office staffers.
Quote — Meg Rowley [21:44]:
"We talk about the biodiversity of players. We do have a biodiversity of managers—at least from a background perspective. And an age perspective."
They riff on the practical consequences of hiring extremely young managers, especially for rebuilding clubs, and tackle the minor confusions and name mix-ups (the "Butera problem").
Rocky's front office situation is labeled an "evergreen question," as Ben and Meg poke fun at the unorthodox possibility of Adam Ottavino jumping directly from player to head of baseball operations.
Memorable Moment — Meg's exasperation with industry job title inflation:
"They promoted their director of Amateur Scouting to 'vice president of amateur forecasting and player evaluation initiatives.' ... Stop it, just stop it!"

4. Padres & Preller: A Unique Run of Managerial Turnover

Timestamps: 35:16–41:04

Ben presents a quick statistical rundown of the Padres’ unique instability under A.J. Preller, who is approaching his sixth non-interim managerial hire in only twelve seasons—the highest rate outside of a couple of ultra-long-tenured GMs/owners.
Discussion frames the coming Padres hire as likely Preller’s "last crack at it," wondering if the next choice will finally bring stability.
Quote — Ben Lindbergh [40:33]:
"So just another way in which A.J. Preller's stay with the Padres has been unusual—and aren't there so many ways?"

5. Main Segment – International Free Agents Preview

Guest: Eric Longenhagen (from 42:35–90:13)

5.1 Evolving Scouting: From Daisuke, Matsui to Yamamoto and Sasaki

Eric notes that with rising numbers of Asian imports, MLB’s (and FanGraphs') ability to project their success is slowly improving—but there's still significant complexity, especially with hitters.
GMs now keep one eye on international stars, another on former MLBers who reinvent themselves abroad (Merrill Kelly, Robert Suarez).

5.2 Roki Sasaki: Superstar, but What’s His Path Forward?

Timestamps: 48:40–52:53

Eric says his own optimism has dimmed, projecting Sasaki as a potential elite closer but doubting starting viability given command issues and fastball “playability.”
Quote — Eric Longenhagen [51:43]:
“If his fastball played more like [Emmet] Sheehan’s does, he’d have more margin for error in that regard. ... I think all that is to say, twisted my arm, I'd say Roki is probably a closer going forward.”

5.3 Munetaka Murakami: Once-in-Generation Bat or One-Note Power Risk?

Timestamps: 52:53–64:13

When Murakami was 21-22, he looked like a surefire top-5 global prospect, putting up historic numbers, but his last three seasons have seen a surge in strikeouts and swing-and-miss issues, especially vs. secondary stuff and MLB-level velocity.
Eric compares his profile to Joey Gallo, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds (“a bunch of beef boys,” per Meg).
Quote — Eric Longenhagen [55:49]:
"For context, the very best secondary pitches in baseball, like Roki’s splitter, generate a contact rate this bad ... and that's how every secondary pitch plays against Murakami."
Ben asks if teams should bet on his earlier form; Eric sees only big-spending, risk-tolerant orgs (Mets, Dodgers, etc.) wading in at those price points.
Defense: “Looks comparable to [Max] Muncie at third … whoever likes him most probably thinks we can put this guy at third base.”

5.4 Kazuma Okamoto: The Higher-Floor, Older Bat?

Timestamps: 64:13–66:55

Okamoto, age 29, is a safer bet—strikeouts are dropping, contact skills are up, he profiles better as a defensively competent first baseman and could play third “in a Max Muncie sort of way.”
Scouting consensus favors Okamoto over Murakami at expected prices.

5.5 The Pitching Market: Imai, Ponce, and the Returner Pipeline

Timestamps: 66:55–74:44

Tatsuya Imai: Walk-prone early in his career, but athletic, durable, and developing secondary stuff; projects as a mid-rotation option, "right at the Jack Flaherty range."
Cody Ponce (ex-MLB): Reinvented himself in Asia with added velocity, better conditioning, and improved secondaries. Likely to get a substantial MLB deal ("closer to [Eric] Fedde’s $15M, maybe $25M for Ponce").
Drew Anderson: KBO strikeout leader, similar transformation ("would get a big-league deal too").

5.6 Honorable Mentions and Breakout Watchlist

Timestamps: 74:44–81:15

Taiwanese righty Josue Shun “Susan” Do: A future name to remember, though not likely to be posted yet.
Leewyn Diaz: 50 HRs in KBO; skepticism remains about his approach translating.
Other NPB/KBO veterans (Saiki, Norimoto, Iwasaki) and rising prospects for the next cycle (Champeti Yamashita, Do Young Kim), the latter plagued by injury.

6. The "Scouting Moratorium": Will It Help (or Change Anything)?

Timestamps: 81:15–89:47

MLB’s new rule limits scouting of HS/college players during the winter break as an injury-prevention measure.
Eric is skeptical, viewing it as an industry cost-saver and posturing; sees plenty of fall scrimmages still happening and limited enforceability.
Quote — Eric Longenhagen [84:57]:
"How are you gonna police that? ... To me, it doesn't really have teeth ... It doesn't really have, what I perceive to be, an impact other than there are scouts who would like to be at the field..."

7. Closing Notes and Recommendations

Seasonal reminders: Watch winter league baseball, sign up for the EW Secret Santa.
Ben promotes his new media project “Plot Hole or Not Hole” and invites listener support.
Appreciation for Patreon supporters and encouragement for prospective fans to join.

Notable Quotes & Moments (With Timestamps)

Meg Rowley on the changing WBC landscape:
"The perception of that event among players has really changed in the last, call it, ten years..." [03:48]
Eric Longenhagen on Murakami’s miss rate:
"His contact rate was 51% against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. So for context ... that's how every secondary pitch plays against Murakami." [55:49]
Ben on Padres' managerial churn:
"...there have been very few top baseball ops execs who have presided over this many managers, and most of them had longer stints than Preller." [40:33]
Meg on baseball’s overlong titles:
"They promoted their director of Amateur Scouting to 'vice president of amateur forecasting and player evaluation initiatives.' ... Stop it, just stop it!" [31:08]
Eric on the moratorium:
"How are you going to police that? ... To me, it doesn't really have teeth." [84:57]

Quick Reference Segment Timestamps

| Segment | Time | |-------------------------------------|-------------| | Opening / Offseason Theme | 00:39–02:44 | | WBC, American/Intl Reception | 02:44–08:09 | | Winter Leagues/Non-MLB Watching | 12:11–13:46 | | Managerial Roundup & Commentary | 13:46–27:33 | | Rockies/Front Office Silliness | 27:33–34:37 | | Padres/Managerial Turnover Stats | 35:16–41:04 | | Eric Longenhagen Joins | 42:35–90:13 | | - Sasaki / Pitching Discussion | 48:40–52:53 | | - Murakami Breakdown | 52:53–64:13 | | - Okamoto Overview | 64:13–66:55 | | - Pitchers: Imai, Ponce, Anderson | 66:55–74:44 | | - More Names / Prospects | 74:44–81:15 | | - Scouting Moratorium Analysis | 81:15–89:47 | | Listener Announcements & Outro | 90:13–end |

Summary curated to capture in-depth discussion, speaker tone, and key moments for listeners and non-listeners alike.

Effectively Wild Episode 2397: The Slightly-Less-Long Offseason

Episode Overview

In the first truly "forward-looking" episode of the offseason, Ben and Meg tee up a wide-ranging, insightful conversation covering:

The impact of upcoming international free agents from Asia,
The transformative effect of high-profile international signings in recent MLB seasons,
Discussion of the World Baseball Classic (WBC) and its changing status among American players,
A rundown and analysis of recent MLB managerial hires and what the variety suggests about modern baseball leadership,
An in-depth scouting breakdown — with Eric Longenhagen — of the most intriguing international players who could soon arrive in MLB.

1. The "Shorter" Offseason & Its Silver Linings

Timestamps: 00:39–13:46

Ben and Meg open by noting this offseason feels shorter, not only because Opening Day is early (March 26), but also due to the return of the World Baseball Classic (March 5–17).
The WBC, which drew unprecedented US attention in 2023, is expected to be a focal point for global baseball fans, shrinking the emotional “gap” between seasons.
Quote — Meg Rowley [03:48]:
"The gap between [international and US WBC engagement] is rapidly collapsing in a way that I think is really terrific. ... There has been a shift among American players about the WBC: the perception of that event among players has really changed in the last, call it, ten years."
Both hosts discuss player excitement, but also acknowledge persistent issues: reluctance by MLB teams to allow their best pitchers to participate and the persistent challenge of recruiting managers for Team USA due to spring training conflicts.
Memorable Moment — Ben joking about MLB managers’ schedules:
"You can't really get special dispensation—let's just take Dave Roberts and send him to manage the WBC team."

2. Free Baseball (Winter Leagues) and Year-Round Fandom

Timestamps: 12:11–13:46

Meg encourages fans aching for baseball to tune in to winter leagues (specifically LIDOM, the Dominican Winter League, available via MLB.tv) and enjoy the colorful foreign-language broadcasts, idiosyncratic commercials, and fringe MLB prospects.

3. The 2025 Managerial Carousel: Diversity in Hires and What it Means

Timestamps: 13:46–27:33

Ben and Meg recap a flurry of managerial hires—perhaps the most eclectic set in recent memory.
- Examples:
  - Walt Weiss (recycled, traditional path: player → bench coach → manager)
  - Blake Butera (Nationals; just 33 years old, youngest in 50+ years, minor league manager/development background)
  - Derek Shelton (Twins; previously bench coach and best friends with outgoing Rocco Baldelli)
  - Craig Albernaz (Orioles; bench/associate manager, ex-catcher, Rays coaching tree)
They discuss the “biodiversity” of managers—ranging from college coaches to backup catchers to analytics-driven front office staffers.
Quote — Meg Rowley [21:44]:
"We talk about the biodiversity of players. We do have a biodiversity of managers—at least from a background perspective. And an age perspective."
They riff on the practical consequences of hiring extremely young managers, especially for rebuilding clubs, and tackle the minor confusions and name mix-ups (the "Butera problem").
Rocky's front office situation is labeled an "evergreen question," as Ben and Meg poke fun at the unorthodox possibility of Adam Ottavino jumping directly from player to head of baseball operations.
Memorable Moment — Meg's exasperation with industry job title inflation:
"They promoted their director of Amateur Scouting to 'vice president of amateur forecasting and player evaluation initiatives.' ... Stop it, just stop it!"

4. Padres & Preller: A Unique Run of Managerial Turnover

Timestamps: 35:16–41:04

Ben presents a quick statistical rundown of the Padres’ unique instability under A.J. Preller, who is approaching his sixth non-interim managerial hire in only twelve seasons—the highest rate outside of a couple of ultra-long-tenured GMs/owners.
Discussion frames the coming Padres hire as likely Preller’s "last crack at it," wondering if the next choice will finally bring stability.
Quote — Ben Lindbergh [40:33]:
"So just another way in which A.J. Preller's stay with the Padres has been unusual—and aren't there so many ways?"

5. Main Segment – International Free Agents Preview

Guest: Eric Longenhagen (from 42:35–90:13)

5.1 Evolving Scouting: From Daisuke, Matsui to Yamamoto and Sasaki

Eric notes that with rising numbers of Asian imports, MLB’s (and FanGraphs') ability to project their success is slowly improving—but there's still significant complexity, especially with hitters.
GMs now keep one eye on international stars, another on former MLBers who reinvent themselves abroad (Merrill Kelly, Robert Suarez).

5.2 Roki Sasaki: Superstar, but What’s His Path Forward?

Timestamps: 48:40–52:53

Eric says his own optimism has dimmed, projecting Sasaki as a potential elite closer but doubting starting viability given command issues and fastball “playability.”
Quote — Eric Longenhagen [51:43]:
“If his fastball played more like [Emmet] Sheehan’s does, he’d have more margin for error in that regard. ... I think all that is to say, twisted my arm, I'd say Roki is probably a closer going forward.”

5.3 Munetaka Murakami: Once-in-Generation Bat or One-Note Power Risk?

Timestamps: 52:53–64:13

When Murakami was 21-22, he looked like a surefire top-5 global prospect, putting up historic numbers, but his last three seasons have seen a surge in strikeouts and swing-and-miss issues, especially vs. secondary stuff and MLB-level velocity.
Eric compares his profile to Joey Gallo, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds (“a bunch of beef boys,” per Meg).
Quote — Eric Longenhagen [55:49]:
"For context, the very best secondary pitches in baseball, like Roki’s splitter, generate a contact rate this bad ... and that's how every secondary pitch plays against Murakami."
Ben asks if teams should bet on his earlier form; Eric sees only big-spending, risk-tolerant orgs (Mets, Dodgers, etc.) wading in at those price points.
Defense: “Looks comparable to [Max] Muncie at third … whoever likes him most probably thinks we can put this guy at third base.”

5.4 Kazuma Okamoto: The Higher-Floor, Older Bat?

Timestamps: 64:13–66:55

Okamoto, age 29, is a safer bet—strikeouts are dropping, contact skills are up, he profiles better as a defensively competent first baseman and could play third “in a Max Muncie sort of way.”
Scouting consensus favors Okamoto over Murakami at expected prices.

5.5 The Pitching Market: Imai, Ponce, and the Returner Pipeline

Timestamps: 66:55–74:44

Tatsuya Imai: Walk-prone early in his career, but athletic, durable, and developing secondary stuff; projects as a mid-rotation option, "right at the Jack Flaherty range."
Cody Ponce (ex-MLB): Reinvented himself in Asia with added velocity, better conditioning, and improved secondaries. Likely to get a substantial MLB deal ("closer to [Eric] Fedde’s $15M, maybe $25M for Ponce").
Drew Anderson: KBO strikeout leader, similar transformation ("would get a big-league deal too").

5.6 Honorable Mentions and Breakout Watchlist

Timestamps: 74:44–81:15

Taiwanese righty Josue Shun “Susan” Do: A future name to remember, though not likely to be posted yet.
Leewyn Diaz: 50 HRs in KBO; skepticism remains about his approach translating.
Other NPB/KBO veterans (Saiki, Norimoto, Iwasaki) and rising prospects for the next cycle (Champeti Yamashita, Do Young Kim), the latter plagued by injury.

6. The "Scouting Moratorium": Will It Help (or Change Anything)?

Timestamps: 81:15–89:47

MLB’s new rule limits scouting of HS/college players during the winter break as an injury-prevention measure.
Eric is skeptical, viewing it as an industry cost-saver and posturing; sees plenty of fall scrimmages still happening and limited enforceability.
Quote — Eric Longenhagen [84:57]:
"How are you gonna police that? ... To me, it doesn't really have teeth ... It doesn't really have, what I perceive to be, an impact other than there are scouts who would like to be at the field..."

7. Closing Notes and Recommendations

Seasonal reminders: Watch winter league baseball, sign up for the EW Secret Santa.
Ben promotes his new media project “Plot Hole or Not Hole” and invites listener support.
Appreciation for Patreon supporters and encouragement for prospective fans to join.

Notable Quotes & Moments (With Timestamps)

Meg Rowley on the changing WBC landscape:
"The perception of that event among players has really changed in the last, call it, ten years..." [03:48]
Eric Longenhagen on Murakami’s miss rate:
"His contact rate was 51% against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. So for context ... that's how every secondary pitch plays against Murakami." [55:49]
Ben on Padres' managerial churn:
"...there have been very few top baseball ops execs who have presided over this many managers, and most of them had longer stints than Preller." [40:33]
Meg on baseball’s overlong titles:
"They promoted their director of Amateur Scouting to 'vice president of amateur forecasting and player evaluation initiatives.' ... Stop it, just stop it!" [31:08]
Eric on the moratorium:
"How are you going to police that? ... To me, it doesn't really have teeth." [84:57]

Quick Reference Segment Timestamps

Summary curated to capture in-depth discussion, speaker tone, and key moments for listeners and non-listeners alike.

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Effectively Wild Episode 2397: The Slightly-Less-Long Offseason

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Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2397: The Slightly-Less-Long Offseason

Episode Overview

1. The "Shorter" Offseason & Its Silver Linings

2. Free Baseball (Winter Leagues) and Year-Round Fandom

3. The 2025 Managerial Carousel: Diversity in Hires and What it Means

4. Padres & Preller: A Unique Run of Managerial Turnover

5. Main Segment – International Free Agents Preview

5.1 Evolving Scouting: From Daisuke, Matsui to Yamamoto and Sasaki

5.2 Roki Sasaki: Superstar, but What’s His Path Forward?

5.3 Munetaka Murakami: Once-in-Generation Bat or One-Note Power Risk?

5.4 Kazuma Okamoto: The Higher-Floor, Older Bat?

5.5 The Pitching Market: Imai, Ponce, and the Returner Pipeline

5.6 Honorable Mentions and Breakout Watchlist

6. The "Scouting Moratorium": Will It Help (or Change Anything)?

7. Closing Notes and Recommendations

Notable Quotes & Moments (With Timestamps)

Quick Reference Segment Timestamps

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2397: The Slightly-Less-Long Offseason

Episode Overview

1. The "Shorter" Offseason & Its Silver Linings

2. Free Baseball (Winter Leagues) and Year-Round Fandom

3. The 2025 Managerial Carousel: Diversity in Hires and What it Means

4. Padres & Preller: A Unique Run of Managerial Turnover

5. Main Segment – International Free Agents Preview

5.1 Evolving Scouting: From Daisuke, Matsui to Yamamoto and Sasaki

5.2 Roki Sasaki: Superstar, but What’s His Path Forward?

5.3 Munetaka Murakami: Once-in-Generation Bat or One-Note Power Risk?

5.4 Kazuma Okamoto: The Higher-Floor, Older Bat?

5.5 The Pitching Market: Imai, Ponce, and the Returner Pipeline

5.6 Honorable Mentions and Breakout Watchlist

6. The "Scouting Moratorium": Will It Help (or Change Anything)?

7. Closing Notes and Recommendations

Notable Quotes & Moments (With Timestamps)

Quick Reference Segment Timestamps