Effectively Wild Episode 2400: There’s No Such Thing As a Free Agent

Summary

Effectively Wild: Episode 2400 – "There's No Such Thing As a Free Agent"

Podcast: Effectively Wild – A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Date: November 13, 2025
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer) & Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)
Guest/Co-Host: Mitch Goldich

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Overview

This milestone episode (#2400) of Effectively Wild is a quintessential mix of the podcast’s hallmarks: baseball statistical analysis, lively banter about the game’s quirks, and a healthy dose of sarcastic wit. Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley (with Mitch Goldich sitting in) kick off the baseball offseason by discussing odd memorabilia, the Rockies remaining baseball’s lovable outlier, and—true to tradition—conducting their annual “Free Agent Contract Over/Under Draft” based on MLB Trade Rumors’ projections.

A highlight of the episode is gleeful coverage of super-agent Scott Boras’s annual wordplay routine at the GM Meetings, as well as a nostalgic ode to the Colorado Rockies’ persistent weirdness. The pod closes with the highly anticipated free agency contract draft and extended Scott Boras excerpts.

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Episode Breakdown

1. Addison Barger’s Iconic Pull-Out Couch (00:40–11:41)

Key Discussion Points

• The "Historic" Pull-Out Couch:
  Ben recounts the story of Blue Jays’ Addison Barger sleeping on teammate Davis Schneider’s pull-out couch before hitting a pinch-hit grand slam in the World Series. The Toronto Marriott put the sofa on display—an action the hosts gently mock.
  • Ben: "Is this a draw? Is this an attraction? Would you go out of your way to see the pull-out couch?" (01:46)
  • Mitch: "No, that's insane...I don't know that you want to submit your furniture to close lobby inspection..." (02:18)
• Skepticism about Authenticity:
  Joking speculation about whether the couch is “the” couch, or just any couch from Marriott’s loading dock.
  • Mitch: "How do you know it's the couch? Addison Barger pull-truther." (03:51)
• Gross-Out Avoidance:
  Multiple tongue-in-cheek refusals to make the conversation about “pull-out” couches gross, while letting listeners fill in innuendo themselves.
• Museums of the Mundane:
  Amused bewilderment at the creation of sports artifacts, particularly one associated with pre-heroics sleep.
• Baseball Writers' Marriott Loyalty:
  Joking about Marriott’s appeal to baseball media, and complaints about Winter Meetings being held at a Hilton instead.
  • "You ever meet a scout that didn't want Marriott points? You sure have not." (10:12)
• Hotel Loyalty Programs:
  Extended riffing about journalists and front office staff gaming Marriott points for personal trips.
  • Mitch: "You know how many people who work in baseball go on their honeymoons because of Marriott points..." (10:12)

Memorable Quotes

• "It's not as if they sent the couch to Cooperstown." – Ben (08:42)
• “I am sure that they don't care about my satisfaction with the accommodations...” – Mitch (10:12)

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2. Scott Boras’s Annual GM Meetings Wordplay Extravaganza (11:41–25:38)

Key Discussion Points

• Wordplay as Marketing:
  Ben shares examples of Boras’s contract-pitching puns, including:
  • "Nobody wants a Bregs-it" (re: Alex Bregman; 12:39)
  • Boris blending Dunkin’ and Starbucks metaphors to describe Bregman’s fit in Boston.
  • "Goose is gone" / “urban maverick” for Cody Bellinger, alluding (awkwardly) to Top Gun.
    • Mitch debates the correctness and taste of the analogy: "But Maverick is canonically devastated by Goose dying." (14:02)
  • “Unlike the other Dylan, he is exclusively electric” for Dylan Cease, riffing on Bob Dylan’s ‘going electric’ (16:07)
  • "The fans in Detroit want the Tigers to build a Tarek barrack [barracks]." – for Tarek Skubal (17:50)
  • "Scooby done" and "Detroit doink" pun chains for Skubal as well.
  • Alliterative Pete Alonso pitch: “Pete's pursuers are primed to pay the power piper,” and more. (21:44)
  • Number of “PoBO” (President of Baseball Operations) names puns (44:27)
• Worn-Out Routine?
  Hosts ponder whether Boras’ annual puns are losing steam with the media and fans.
  • Mitch: “I think that this is outlived its usefulness...” (19:30)
  • Ben: "We're as guilty as anyone," noting their own coverage gives Boras more attention.
• Why Does He Do This?
  • "It's for an audience of one to some extent... but I feel like he's doing it largely for himself." – Ben (15:55)
  • The hosts compare Boras's showmanship to spring training autograph hounds—"just commit to the bit and run." (23:13)
• Reluctance to Wordplay Asian Players' Names:
  Brief remarks on Boras wisely (usually) avoiding risky puns with Japanese/Korean players' names. (17:13)

Memorable Quotes

• "You can't do the Piper thing and then recommit to the polar bear thing. You need to pick a lane." – Mitch (22:20)
• "We're as guilty as anyone... Last one I saw, this is not so much wordplay. I mean, this is just pure alliteration here on Pete Alonso..." – Ben (21:29)
• "It's so corny it sort of circles all the way to being funny again." – Ben (96:17)

Boras Full-Transcript Segments at End (92:38–96:17)

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3. The Rockies Are Baseball’s Last Weirdos (25:38–38:50)

Key Discussion Points

• Ben’s "Ode/Takedown":
  Ben details his appreciation and frustration for the Rockies’ idiosyncratic approach—forever baseball’s punchline for operating differently.
  • Ben: “The Colorado Rockies cannot and must not be normal…” (38:50)
• Paul DePodesta’s Unprecedented Gap:
  The hire of Paul DePodesta as Rockies’ PoBO, coming after 21 years away from an MLB front office, is explored. - “This is unprecedented... a 50% longer gap than anyone else has ever had...” (34:35)
• Front Office Conformity:
  Ben laments how most front offices now look and act the same, missing the colorful outliers of past eras.
• Rockies’ "Chaotic Good" Alignment:
  They’re not maliciously cheap or cruel like the A’s or Pirates, just oddly run, which somehow feels less damaging.

Memorable Quotes

• "I really will miss that, because someday the Rockies will be good again and they'll be normal again." – Ben (29:19)
• “They play on the surface of the moon. Right. They have environmental—yeah, weird.” – Mitch (29:19)
• “Dick Monfort is merely incompetent...they're trying and failing.” – Ben (30:55)

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4. Fun with Exec Titles: The "Pobos" and "Hobos" (44:27–48:47)

Key Discussion Points

• Rise of the POBO:
  The title “President of Baseball Operations” (PoBO) now overshadows the old “GM.”
• PO/BO Surname Overrepresentation:
  Listener Andrew M. finds people with ‘po’ or ‘bo’ surnames are vastly overrepresented among Pobos.
  • "5 of 22 Pobos have a po or bo in their last name…" (45:13)
• “Hobo” Title Debate:
  Hosts joke about “head of baseball operations” possibly being shortened to “hobo,” which would be unfortunate.

Memorable Quotes

• "If you're winging it, you'll never be a pobo or po, bro." – Mitch (47:32)
• "Paul de Pobo, Jerry de Pobo, Paul Tobo..." – Ben (45:42)

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5. Obscure Baseball Stat Blasts and Historical Anomalies (49:24–59:19)

Key Discussion Points

• "Most days in playoff position" without making the playoffs:
  The 2025 Mets tied the 2007 Mets (178 days nominally in the playoffs) for this ignominious record. (49:24)
• Left Fielders’ Franchise-Long Streaks:
  A stat blast about longest team streaks where the primary left fielder played their whole career for one team.
  • Red Sox: 18 years of Yaz/Rice/Greenwell (51:01–.)
  • Yankees: 23-year shortstop streak (Frankie Crosetti/Phil Rizzuto).
• Memorial for Mike Greenwell and Jesus Montero:
  Both recently deceased; hosts share statistics and reflections on their playing days. (59:27)

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6. Annual MLB Free Agent Contract Over/Under Draft (61:07–92:38)

Key Discussion Points

• How It Works:
  Using MLB Trade Rumors’ Top 50 Free Agent contract projections, hosts draft eight players each, taking overs or unders on their total guarantee.
  • Ben: “Whoever has the most on their ledger wins the draft…” (62:39)
  • Bonus points for directional pick and difference.
• State of the Free Agent Market:
  The hosts note this year’s projections are particularly sharp—few clear “overs” or “unders.”
  • "A lot of these this year...are really tight. They've really refined their process…" – Meg (64:20)
• Debate on Specific Players:
  Many projections center on likely contract length rather than AAV.
  • Kyle Tucker: Under 400M (Ben, 65:43)
  • Munetaka Murakami: Under 180M (Meg, 68:26)
  • Trent Grisham: Under 66M (Ben, 71:19)
  • Edwin Diaz: Over 82M (Meg, 71:28)
  • Glaber Torres: Over 22M? (Ben, 73:02)
  • And more: Gallen (under), Malley (over), Suarez (under), King (under), Schwarber (under), Verlander (under), etc.
• Emotionally Torn About Unders:
  Hosts admit they root for players to do well, even when their picks are "under."
• Play Along at Home:
  The game is tracked on the EW wiki for listeners.

Memorable Quotes

• “…I want the boys to make their—get their bag, as the young people say…” (66:58)
• "You call him the best pure hitter. He is. He's also just a pure hitter and that's it." – Ben (81:05)

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7. Scott Boras: Full Press Conference Wordplay (92:38–96:17)

Key Discussion Points

• Extended Boras Riffs:
  Boras’s Bregman, Bellinger, and Ha Seong Kim puns are played at length. In typical fashion, he wrings together groaners and extended metaphors (Top Gun, coffee blends, and more) for each client.

Notable Moments

• “There’s no question that Pete’s pursuers are primed to pay the power piper…A playoff-parched plethora will pounce to participate in the polar plunge.” – Boras (21:44, repeated in transcript at 94:12–95:46)
• “He [Bregman] is a Bregman blend that led them to the playoffs...no one wants a Brexit.” – Boras (92:38)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Pull-Out Couch Hysteria:
  "Addison Barger pull-truther. That could be just any pull-out couch." – Ben (03:51)

• On Boras's Puns:
  "So Goose dies and it's like a bad thing in the movie when Goose dies. It sort of motivates the whole back half of the movie..." – Mitch (14:02) "He's off book...he memorized his lines here and he's waiting for people to tee him up...” – Ben (22:45)

• On the Rockies’ Weirdness:
  “The Colorado Rockies cannot and must not be normal.” – Ben (38:50)

• On Underwhelmed Closing:
  “If you're winging it, you'll never be a pobo or po, bro.” – Mitch (47:32)

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Timestamps – Key Segments

• 00:40–11:41: Addison Barger's pull-out couch, sports artifacts, Marriott loyalty
• 11:41–25:38: Scott Boras’s puns and media spectacle at GM Meetings
• 25:38–38:50: Rockies as enduring MLB outlier; DePodesta’s unprecedented front office return
• 44:27–48:47: The preponderance of ‘PoBOs’ and exec title inflation
• 49:24–59:19: Mets stat blast; franchise legends & quirky player streaks
• 61:07–92:38: Annual Free Agency Over/Under Draft—analysis and picks
• 92:38–96:17: Boras press conference puns, played in full

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Tone & Style

The episode is free-wheeling, playful, and sardonic without ever turning mean-spirited. Hosts blend hard-nosed baseball analytics with stretches of speculative, affectionate lampooning—especially targeting the spectacle of Boras’s performance art and the endless, lovable incompetence of the Rockies.

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For First-Time Listeners

This episode delivers on Effectively Wild’s reputation for mixing in-depth baseball nerdery with offbeat humor, improvisational asides, and historical perspective. With little time spent on adverts or intros, the content is dense and wide-ranging, making it an engaging listen whether you’re a stathead, beat writer, or just someone who finds the idea of a sports shrine built around a pull-out couch hilariously on-brand for baseball.

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End of Summary

Transcript

[Ben Lindbergh]

Vroom, vroom.

[Scott Boris]

Here's your primer on beef, boys.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Baseball's end. Roger angel and super pretzels Williams Astadillo and Mike Trout.

[Scott Boris]

Hypotheticals waiting for the perfect bat from a volcanic eruption.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Ladies and gentlemen, the Effectively Wild introduction.

[Mitch Goldich]

Hello and welcome to episode 2400 of Effectively Wild, a FanGraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Mick Rowley of fangraphs and I am joined by Ben Limburger of the Ringer. Ben, a lot of pod. Man, we've done such pod.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So many pod. Yeah. Wasn't happy with the quality of my whistle there. Let me try again. No, just air.

[Mitch Goldich]

It's not great.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Not a good whistling day for me. I pride myself on my whistling, but not today. But I do pride ourselves on getting to yet another round number milestone 2400. It's a lot of pods. Here's a question for you. We talked a lot during the postseason about Addison Barger. You learned that he is a lefty and how to say his name and other important facts about him. We also talked about his predilection for pullout couches, how he insisted, well, didn't insist he had permission, but he really wanted to sleep on Davis Schneider's couch rather than obtain his own hotel room. And we talked about his reasoning for that. Here's something I saw. The pullout couch on which Addison Barger crashed before hitting his historic pinch hit grand slam in game one of the World Series will be on display at the Toronto Marriott City Center Hotel overlooking the Rogers Center. If you want to see the quote now iconic pull out catch, I don't know that I would go that far, but if you want to see it, you can go to that hotel and it will be on display in the lobby. Actually, it's already too late. Well, maybe if you hear this right, when the pod goes up, it'll be there until November 14th, Friday. So if you can get to that Marriott in Toronto by end of day Friday, I guess you can see the very pullout couch where Addison Barger slept the night before his heroics. What do you think? Is this a. Is this a draw? Is this an attraction? Would you go out of your way to see the pullout couch?

[Mitch Goldich]

No, that's insane. I. Look, I, I also think, I don't want to feel bad, but kind of a bold move on the part of the Marriott. Look, here's my experience. Even with nice, nice ish hotels, I don't know that you want to submit your furniture to like close lobby inspection you know what I mean? Like, I don't know that that's going to bear the weight of scrutiny, but also like, I know that he had an, had an amazing moment the next day, right? Like in the, in the immediate aftermath of the couch and we're saying pull out so much more than I'm really comfortable with. But in the immediate aftermath of this, he had a great moment. But they did lose the World Series. You know what I mean?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Like they did. But it was not his fault. He gave his all.

[Mitch Goldich]

Hardly suggesting that it was Addison Barger's fault. It was not his fault. And I would just like to issue a small correction to your statement. It's not, not that we learned he batted lefty. We remembered he batted lefty and then.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Solidified our pre existing knowledge and insisted.

[Mitch Goldich]

On reminding others of that fact over and over and over again. But so I, I, I don't know, Ben. You know, I don't know about that. I think we're doing too much with too many things. You know, the, the, the, the couch, it's a good story, but the couch is just a couch. How do you know? First of all, how do you know it's the couch? How do you know it's the couch?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Addison Parcher pull truther. That could be just any pull out couch.

[Mitch Goldich]

It could be just any pull out couch. And again, I'll return to my, my earlier statement that it, that it is perhaps not the best idea to submit and subject hotel furniture to prolonged up scrutiny.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, you don't want to take a UV black light to a hotel furniture. Probably. Speaking of pulling out.

[Mitch Goldich]

Okay, wow, wow, wow. Yeah, you probably don't want to do that. And so maybe some clever person who works for that particular Mary raised their hand in the staff meeting and noted that fact to their boss. And then they were like, you know, we got a new couch though, in the loading dock, ready to go into a different room. And then the boss goes, well, you put that, you put that sucker in the lobby is going to look like that. They'll never know the difference. Cause here's the thing. Is Addison Berger going to come around and be like, that wasn't the couch.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Would he even be able to tell?

[Mitch Goldich]

I mean, one, he might not be able to tell. And two, even if he could tell, he's probably off being off season, Addison. You know, he's got family to see, he's got activities to do. I'm making him sound like a child on winter break, but you know what I mean? Like he's got, he's got other business to attend to. Business that does not involve a couch in a hotel lobby in a city that he probably doesn't live in in the off season. So I'm just saying there could be some couch funny business, you know, like a different kind of couch funny business than a hotel couch might normally see. Ao See how I did that but didn't make it. I let the. The listener make it. Gross. I didn't make it. You gotta, you know, Much more tactful.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I appreciate that.

[Mitch Goldich]

You don't have to be graphic all the time. Sometimes it does require that. Yeah, but this time not so much.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So anyway, a little to the imagination. I think it's cute. I like that. The press release from Marriott.

[Mitch Goldich]

I just love that there's a press release. There's a press release and it worked.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Here I am a member of the press talking about it.

[Mitch Goldich]

I know. Giving them exactly what they want.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Speaking of release. No, I'm not doing that. What started as a humble spot to lay his head has now become the stuff of baseball legend. And fans can now get up close with the sofa that helped fuel one of Canada's most talked about recent moments.

[Mitch Goldich]

Get up close.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't know how.

[Mitch Goldich]

What do they.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I'm not sure if this is like when you, you go to some European palace and everything is roped off. I'm not sure if you get to lie in the pullout to get the full Addison Barger experience or if it's just on display and you just sort of survey the pullout and say, ah, yes, history happened here. He slept there the night before his. His home run.

[Mitch Goldich]

And I don't mean to suggest that Addison did anything untoward with couch. I'm not trying to. He's not J.D. vance. Like, come on, this is a respectable young man. I'm just saying, like, what comes after people see the couch in the lobby, right? They come into the lobby, they see the couch. You probably have to rope it off. Because typically when you see a couch in a lobby, you got to sit down on the couch because you're wary. You know, you've been traveling all day. You've been. Maybe you've had to deal with, with customs, maybe you've had a flight canceled. You know, it's. You don't know. People might, people might have been a very early. You know, and so they come into the lobby, they have not seen this press release because why would they see this press release? And they go, and there's a line and they're like, oh, God, I'm so tired. I am worn by my travels. Oh boy, how convenient. A couch. I'll sit on this couch. I'm going to relax on this couch. I'm going to lounge on the couch.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Comes over yelling at you because you, you violated the sanctity of the display. This is a priceless artifact.

[Mitch Goldich]

You've befouled the couch.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I know. Did they, did they like refuse to, to tuck in the bed sheets? Is it like, did they leave it the way that he left it or did they make the bed? You know, did they get turn down service on the pullout couch after? Or would that be tampering with history?

[Mitch Goldich]

I don't think they typically do turn down.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I guess not with the pull out.

[Mitch Goldich]

Probably.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

Here's the thing. It's not that there aren't pull out couches in nice hotels, but hotels that do turn down service, like real turndown service. They're not emphasizing the pullout couch. And, and, and here's, here's. Did Marriott know he was going to be sleeping in there? Did they add an additional guest? Were they like, why?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Was there a surcharge because there was an extra occupant in the room?

[Mitch Goldich]

That's a good question. It's like, just get your own room. I mean, to be clear, the moment when Addison should have gotten his own room was like at any moment before he was sleeping on a pullout couch in the middle of the postseason. Yes, but he didn't avail himself of that option for reasons that we're still not satisfied by.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Anyway, it's a one week exhibit in the lobby of a Marriott. They probably don't. We exhibit have a whole lot of history. It's not as if they sent the couch to Cooperstown.

[Mitch Goldich]

I was about to say, did they feel the need to display the couch and release and put out a press release because they were like, well, we can't, we can't let the hall of Fame have all the fun. We gotta. And again, did the local Marriott have to clear the language for the press release with corporate. They don't have a. I can't imagine that the hotel has like, how's its.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Own dedicated communications professionals. Yeah, no, maybe, maybe it'll be a traveling exhibit and they'll send it around. Or maybe, I don't know. If they had won the World Series, would it be like the Stanley cup and every Blue Jay would have a night in the pullout couch? I don't know. But I like that they have tried to make this a thing, you know, I'M sure it's a little bit tongue in cheek and hyperbolic. And, and how often really is history made in a hotel that you get to have a display in the lobby? It's all in good fun, I guess. And hey, baseball writers and sports writers, they love their Marriotts, right? They love their Marriott VIP rewards program. So if they're doing an off season Marriott tour, they could stop in Toronto by Friday and see the couch.

[Mitch Goldich]

Can I pick a very particular bone that I'm going to get no sympathy for from either you or our listeners? I've already complained about the fact that the Winter Meetings hotel is the Hilton.

[Ben Lindbergh]

What's that about? I think you.

[Mitch Goldich]

What are you doing?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, you may have mentioned that. What is that?

[Mitch Goldich]

Why are they doing this?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Know your audience, folks.

[Mitch Goldich]

It's the Hilton. And look, I am sure that they don't care about my satisfaction with the accommodations. They obviously don't care because they booked the media hotel into a place that has like four rooms, all of which have already been booked. Real dire streets for some of our pals in the media. Not me, I booked early. But you know, for other people. So. So there's that. But also it's not just media people. You ever meet a scout that didn't want Marriott points? You sure have not. You ever meet a front office person who doesn't want Mario Marriott pot? No, you haven't. You know how many people who work in baseball go on their honeymoons because of Marriott points, stay in very nice places that they might not otherwise be able to afford because their Marriott. It feels aggressive, it feels targeted, it feels purposeful. You know, they're already making me fly to Orlando.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I remember an article that Joel Ameyer wrote about the origins of the sports writing media's fascination and love affair with Marriott, which I will link to if anyone's curious, which they probably aren't. So we can move on.

[Mitch Goldich]

I mean, there's every bit. Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. You made me talk about the couch. Press release. So I get to. I get to beef ever so briefly. I'm just mad because I know that I'm gonna go and get like some paleolithic version of COVID when I have to go to frickin Florida. You know, I am. I get to complain about Florida because I live in Arizona and we're like kindreds in a way that I'm not comfortable with.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Couch is iconic. Don't denigrate the, the human interest appeal of the couch. So we have a draft to do. We're gonna do our annual free agency agent contracts over underdraft. I have a little stat blast to give you. And speaking of the winter meetings, of course, Scott Boris will hold court there at the Non Marriott, but he also, he gave a little a teaser, a taste of the material that he is workshopping because the GM meetings are this week. And he sort of splits it up now. And I don't know if he saves his best material for the winter meetings where there's a bigger crowd, but, you know, he tests the waters. And so we got a couple bits of Boris wordplay at least on Wednesday. On Alex Bregman. Nobody wants a Bregs it on Alex Bregman possibly departing Boston. Nobody wants a Brexit. And then as reported by our pal Alex Spear, he then weaved a lengthy explanation about Duncan and Starbucks into his description of Bregman providing the right blend in Beantown. So I guess you sort of see what he's going for there. Maybe it's not always clear, I think because of Alex didn't transcribe it fully. But yeah, he's talking about coffee and then he's.

[Mitch Goldich]

But he's not suggesting that you should like, get a Dunkin Donuts cup of coffee and get a Starbucks cup of coffee and then do like a blend of those cups.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh, no, I don't.

[Mitch Goldich]

He is simply.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, I don't.

[Mitch Goldich]

Then why does he bring up Starbucks?

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's a good question, but I'm not that interested in the answer. And he also touched on Cody Bellinger, another client of his. Alex Blue sky posted Boris a Palooza at the GM meetings begins with a lengthy celebration of Top Gun. In describing Cody Bellinger, an urban maverick with no qualifying offer attached to Bellinger, Boris says that Goose is gone.

[Mitch Goldich]

Okay, Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I feel like I need a. I need more. I need more context. I need a full transcript to get where he's going with this.

[Mitch Goldich]

You. You. But. Okay, but see, here's the thing. Goose in. In Top Gun, Goose died.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Spoilers. Yeah, it's true.

[Mitch Goldich]

Oh, yeah. Sorry to spoil Top Gun. I'm so sorry to spoil the 1986 film Top Gun. Yeah, Goose dies. He doesn't make it. He.

[Ben Lindbergh]

No, he rip.

[Mitch Goldich]

Crashes. And then it's. And it's. It's very tragic.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, it's sad.

[Mitch Goldich]

Played by a young Anthony Edwards. Okay, but so. So Goose dies and it's like a bad thing in the movie when Goose dies. It sort of motivates the whole back half of the movie and then is like a propulsive element to the Sequel, which is fantastic. What a. What a good pair of films those two are. Enjoy every minute of it. With them flying in an ambiguous enemy's backyard in the second one. That was great. Like, where are they? We don't know. We can guess, but we don't know. It's a weird way to put it because it's like. Okay, so. So I assum that in his. You know, because he's calling him an urban maverick. So that. So Alex Bregman is the Tom Cruise character, which makes sense because they're the same height. So, you know, you see a good comp there. That's a joke about both of them being short little kings. The two of them, short little men. They're both very small. So Maverick. He's maverick. He's an urban maverick. Okay, okay. And then the goose is gone. But like, Alex Bregman should be happy about not being burdened by a qualifying offer anymore. But. But Maverick is canonically devastated by goose dying.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So.

[Mitch Goldich]

Scott, I don't think that you've seen that movie, or at least maybe not in a very long time. So I'm. I'm not with him on. On that one. He could do something. Like. He could be like. No negative ghostwriter. The pattern is full. Like, that was the qualifying. You could have played with that, you know, as like a. That was the qualifying offer. Like there being another stuff on the deck, you know, because they can't land when the pattern is full.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Mitch Goldich]

You know, I know you brought this up and you're like. You're like, no, I will not.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, you're not spoiling anything for me. You.

[Mitch Goldich]

I cannot. I cannot spoil a movie as old as I am. There's. There's no way to do that. Top Gun and Meg, same birth year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It feels a little played out. And, you know, maybe. Maybe we've done our part in playing it out, but he really has. He's fully invested. It's not played out for him. And really, it's for an audience of one to some extent. I know he's doing this to get attention for his clients and to get people to post about it and talk about it on a podcast. And maybe he's doing it for his clients, sort of, but I feel like he's doing it largely for himself. As we talked to him about when he was on this podcast and we interrogated him about it. One that I did like Scott on. On Dylan Cease. Unlike the other Dylan, he is exclusively electric. So you got your. Your Dylan going electric wordplay there from Scott Boris in the year 2025. That's. That's clever. That's creative. The amusing thing is that he's. He's dropping all these lines and everyone's faithfully transcribing them. And if you look at Alex Spears timeline here, he's, you know, reporting the Brexit and the Beantown and the Irvin Maverick, and that goose is gone. And then it just says, boris says, imai will post on November 19th. That's it. He had nothing for. For Tatsuya Imai with a Mai. Honestly could have gotten any number of directions. I mean, maybe for cultural sensitivity reasons.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah, I was going to say for.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The best, I think. Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

I think it's probably better to just stay away from wordplay with, like, the Japanese and Korean players names, because I'm not saying it can't be done in a way that isn't problematic, but it can go so fast in that direction. And so I think it's better to just play that one straight. It is interesting that he's going to post on the 19th because that means that his deadline to sign is, like, right after New Year's. It's just a weird. You're in a strange spot. But whatever, whatever. His deadline to sign is like a Saturday because New Year's is on like a Thursday or something this year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He had some lines about Tarek Skubal as well.

[Scott Boris]

The. The fans in Detroit want the Tigers to build a Tarek barrack, you know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

As in, you know, barracks, where soldiers stay.

[Mitch Goldich]

I guess you can't just rhyme it and be like, oh, that's close to a word that's real.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think. I think a barrack. I think that's a word. I think. I mean, usually it's barracks, but I think you can have a singular barrack, A single barrack. I think.

[Mitch Goldich]

So the barracks. It's not an S. No, wait a minute.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Barrack is a word. I think it's just that usually you have multiple barracks, and so you say barracks, but I believe barrack is a word, so I'm giving him credit for that one. It's only a little unusual. It's a word.

[Mitch Goldich]

It is a word, but it's not the way Ben.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Creative license, you know. And he also said. This one makes even less sense to me.

[Scott Boris]

Little Caesar's running around town saying sigh.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Sigh. That's what. It's not like, sigh rhymes with pizza or something. That's not even.

[Mitch Goldich]

No, no, no, no.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He also said he's, of course, talking about the potential for an extension for schoopa in Detroit.

[Scott Boris]

You know, we, we. When you're in these situations and you go through. But all we know is that we hear mostly from the fans and the player hears from the fans and it's kind of like it should be Scooby done. Right? And if not, I think the fans would certainly think it's a Detroit doink if they don't.

[Mitch Goldich]

Okay, that's better. That's better.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I guess it's better.

[Mitch Goldich]

It's better.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh boy. Yeah, he's going for it.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah. But like, I think that this is outlived its usefulness and I think on some level his people know that. And that's why, despite the increasing popularity of his standup at these events, they are continuing not to mic him.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They don't want this to circulate that much.

[Mitch Goldich]

They don't like him. It's wild. And some of these have made me laugh over the years and I thought the Brexit one was good. I liked the Brexit. The Brexit one almost redeems the entire exercise this year because I think that one is strong. Although it is evidence that this is mostly about the, you know, the references and enjoyment of like a middle aged white guy because it's like, is Alex Bregman like, you know, you should do make a Brexit joke like in the year of our Lord 2025.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Mitch Goldich]

It's really relevant humor. Sort of like Top Gun. Yeah. So I think it's, I think what he should do is he should, he should play the winter meetings availability straight. You know, he should just talk about his guys and where their markets are and what he's hoping to get done that week. Just play that one straight. Do a couple in a row where you're just like, you know, telling, telling the assembled reporters about your dudes. It's not like people are going to stop going to his availabilities. It's still a newsworthy event. But like let people, you know, let people kind of take a, take a breather and then come back. It's like how, you know, if you watch the same. I'm an, I'm a believer in. Despite my capacity to enjoy repeat viewings of things. Like, you should, you should take every other year off from the Muppet Christmas Carol because you'll get played out. You'll get, you'll get tired of it and then you can emerge Scott Boris, like a year from now and be like my pawns which did not die. You're not enjoying my references today. It's really something you're like, no, I'm not going to. Yes. And Meg, no interest in that today.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'm giving you the reaction that perhaps people should give Scott Boris. But we're. We're as guilty as anyone. Last one I saw. This is not so much wordplay. I mean, this is just pure alliteration here on Pete Alonso.

[Scott Boris]

I think Pete, at this point in his career, he's about winning. No doubt had that question a lot. There's no doubt that Pete's pursuers are primed to pay the power piper. You know, Pete picked a perfect period to play preeminently at a really a primary position, a playoff, parched plethora will pounce to participate. And the polar plunge.

[Mitch Goldich]

Okay, wait, no, no, no, no, no. You can't do the Piper thing and then recommit to the polar bear thing. You can't do both. You need to pick a lane.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh, yeah. Are you doing it.

[Mitch Goldich]

Alliterative thing? Are you doing the polar bear thing? Are you doing the pied piper thing? You can't.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The answer is yes. Yes. He's doing all of the above. The impressive thing. I watched a little clip of that. He does not appear to refer to notes in the midst of that recitation. So he.

[Mitch Goldich]

More embarrassing.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, he's off book. He memorized his lines here and he's waiting for people to tee him up and he has this grin on his face, you know, just waiting to deploy these lines. And then he. He tries to make it seem off the cuff, like, oh, good question. Didn't realize you'd ask me about Pete Alonso, huh? Let me think off the top of my mind. What can I come up with here? And then he breaks out this, which he evidently memorized and. And practiced to use another P word.

[Mitch Goldich]

I'm going to deploy an analogy here that might be a little strained, but I'm going to do it anyway. So there's this phenomena that you see at spring training games and also at fall league games of the autograph hounds who will try very hard to get players to sign cards and caps and balls, et cetera. And some of this is all excited fan behavior. Some of it is degenerate ebay guys and the children that they deputized to their project. And the other day was at a folly game and I saw two guys, they were middle aged men, so, you know, like, presumably they have taxes that they have to worry about at some point in their year. And they had their big book. They had their big book of. Of things and they, you know, they are going from dugout to dugout, side to side, depending on, like, who's going to be exiting the field, potentially with the ball to throw and also to. To, like, kind of pay attention to the bullpens. Can they get a guy as he's, like, getting ready to come in or out of the bullpen or as he's standing there, et cetera. And they were. They were like, fast walking, you know, they weren't running. They were trying to still be at a speed that one could describe as walking, but clearly with the art, urgency, and intent of a. A person who wants to break into a sprint that can only be facilitated by real running shoes. And I sit, sat there and I thought to myself, just run. What you're doing is more embarrassing because it suggests that you are aware of the optics of what you're doing and understand them to be at least a little socially off, given your age. And so you're trying to fly under the radar, but you're still basically sprinting. So just commit to the bit and run. So maybe Scott Bor should just keep doing his thing. Maybe. Maybe that's what it means.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's a good note. We'll see if he takes it under advisement for the winter meetings.

[Mitch Goldich]

But it's like the reason it's the same is like you're memorizing a script, Scott, but you're trying to stay, like, appear off book, but spontaneous. I don't know. It's not washing over me the same way that it normally does. I'm not feeling the charm the way that I. That I. The way I'm often willing to find.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maybe it's just that you're not.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yes. Anding me so I shouldn't.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'm not. Yes.

[Mitch Goldich]

Ending Scott, you know, it's really your fault.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. If the charm is wearing off for us, then that's not a great sign for Scott, because we were. We were firmly on Boris island when it came to monitoring these bits of wordplay, if you can call them that. Okay. I wanted to mention a few things. One is that I wrote a lengthy ode to slash takedown of the Colorado Rockies. Hard to say which it is. It's kind of both. It's kind of an appreciation plus a lament all wrapped up together because I do kind of appreciate that we all collectively have the Colorado Rockies as just a shared punchline. You know, not Rockies fans. They'd probably prefer that they just actually watched a good, competently run baseball team, but at least they've got some things going for them. Coors Field is nice. You know, there's some cheap beer there sometimes good scenery, et cetera. But I appreciate we talked a little bit about the depot or not Depot Podesta, that's the one I meant hiring. And I kind of went long on that and talked all about how just weird the Rockies are and just how one of a kind and singular and behind at the times they are. And I'm glad that we have an outlier because I think if Dipodesta modernizes the Rockies and it's not like he's going to snap his fingers and suddenly they're going to be good, and whether they will ever be good and competitive and forward thinking while Dick Monfort owns that team and medals in it, I have no idea. But I think if and when the Rockies eventually start operating more or less like other teams and sounding like other teams, I think I'll miss that because there is so much conformity in the front offices, not just the demographic makeup, but the way they talk and the way they operate and evaluate players and acquire players. And then you have the Rockies who are just doing their own thing, just march into the beat of their own drum and it has not worked out for them. And they do seem to finally, belatedly realize that they can't just keep doing what they're doing. And they did finally make an external hire. But, but even then it was weird. And as we said, like they, they tried, they tried to take a more conventional approach to getting their next baseball operations leader, and they had a bunch of finalists and people they were interested in and talking to that were, were very expected. And any other team, if they had been interested in the same candidates, you would have said, yep, that makes some sense. And then ultimately those candidates didn't get the gig and reportedly dropped out and pulled out of the process in some cases, or turned down an offer. And then they pivot to Paul DiPodesta, who of course had been entirely out of baseball for almost a decade and has not run a baseball operations department for two decades. And that was weird. And there was a part of me who that was pleased that the Rockies are still strange and just still an absolute outlier. And I, I really will miss that because someday the Rockies will be good again and they'll be normal again. But the headline on my piece was the Colorado Rockies cannot and must not be normal. And I, I find that I'm now invested in them staying not normal, that I, I want them to be weird for as long as possible. That so that we have one. Because there used to be a number of teams that were seen as sort of behind the times or old school or like they didn't know what they were doing. And the Rockies are kind of the last bastion of that where an outsider could credibly say, I could do a better job than they're doing right now. And I kind of appreciate that that's still out there. So, you know, long may they be weird is what I'm saying.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah, I think. I think I'd like them to be weird in a. In a little different way than this, you know, if. If I were being honest, because here's the thing. They'll always be some weird. They play on the surface of the moon. Right. Like they. They have environmental. Yeah, weird. I'd like to see that weird manifest in a fun way where it's like, oh, wow, we hired like a good. A good and well resourced front office, and it involves them coming creative ways of overcoming the obvious environmental deficits attendant with where we play baseball. That'd be great.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That would be cool. Yeah. If there were one weird trick to conquer Coors Fields and they figured that out and it became an advantage instead of a disadvantage, that would be. Yeah, that'd be interesting.

[Mitch Goldich]

Or even just. Even. Even just several.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But.

[Mitch Goldich]

But instead we have this. I don't know. I see what you mean, but I. I do think that, like, I don't want to be in a negative Nancy, but there's. There's just only the 30 of them right now, you know, and so like seating a whole. A whole franchise to bad. Weird. It strikes me as defeatist. I don't care for it.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I kind of think, though, that, yes. I mean, the Rockies, the vibes are bad in some ways, but compared to other teams, they're not as bad because, like, you know, they're John Fisher or Bob Nutting. Sure. They're not like.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah, they're not as good as. Although the A's on field product is.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Like, you know, far better than the Rockies. Yes. But John Fisher is incompetent and callous or cruel and Bob Nutting is incompetent and miserly and Dick Monford is. Is merely incompetent. You know, they're. They're trying.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And failing. And in some ways, that's more wholesome than the teams that aren't trying. So. And you know, it's. It's not like dead in Coors Field. It's a nice place to see a game. There's some silver linings in saving graces. And I just feel like, you Know, if the last holdout modernizes and there's no longer a team, that kind of becomes a punchline. They're always going to be bad teams relative to other teams. I mean, that's just the way that competition works. Some teams are up, some teams are down, some teams are better run than others. But to have a true outlier like this, I'll miss that kind of lingua franca, kind of just common shared reference that we all have to the Rockies. Just not knowing what they're doing. Dick Montfort just emailing fans back whenever they reach out to him, taking their suggestions about player acquisition. It's just. It's wild. So some part of me is sort of nostalgic for when teams didn't know what they were doing, because it's like the war has been won to the extent that there was one about, like how to run a baseball team. And so just having one isolated. And it's not even like the Rockies are. Are out there being anti analytics necessarily. It's not like they're crusaders. You know, they're not saying our. Like everyone else is doing it wrong. And we think that, you know, you have to have some traditional baseball values or something. They. They're just so divorced from everything. They're on their own wavelength. And so there's not much at stake in it. Whereas in the past, it was kind of a culture war. And if whoever at the time was seen as regressive, if it was the Royals or whoever else, you know, it was more adversarial and it was more of a just, oh, we have to teach them the right way to do this or they're dismissing us and we're right and they're wrong. And now it's just like, you know, the Rockies, we don't have to feel that way about them. We can hope for the sake of their fans and their players that eventually they get good and figure out what they're doing. But when there's just no team anymore that feels like it's from the Stone Age, I think. I think I'll miss that.

[Mitch Goldich]

Now, I. I will point out that you are bemoaning the potential loss of a lingua franca for incompetence to be headed by the man who was prominent in, literally, the Cleveland Browns front office most recently.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's true.

[Mitch Goldich]

So I think, you know, you're gonna have some time to adjust, put it that way.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Well, you could all read my Rocky's treatise if you're interested. I'll link to it on the show. Page. But one little stat blast that I did for that article with the help of Kenny Jacklin from Baseball Reference. So we all knew it was weird that Paul Di Podesta was coming back to run a baseball operations department after so long away. And it will be 21 seasons when next season starts. It will have been 21 seasons since his last season at the helm of a baseball operations department with the 2005 Dodgers. So long ago that columnists were calling him a computer nerd and Google Boy and people were actually paying attention to columnists. That's how long it was. There were columnists in newspapers.

[Mitch Goldich]

So placky. I love how he's just getting sideswiped.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It was partly Plaschke. Yes. And also the late T.J. symers. That's how long it was ago that he is the late T.J. simers now. But I wanted to know, was there precedent for this, for this long a gap between seasons as the head of a baseball operations department? And I asked Kenny about this, and he used the Baseball Reference database to answer this question. And the answer is no. This is unprecedented. And not only that, but this is a 50% longer gap between years at the helm than anyone else has ever had. 21 seasons. The previous record was actually Paul Di Podesta's predecessor in Oakland and then boss in San Diego and New York, Sandy alderson, who went 11 years between his time with the Mets and the A's. Or no, 14 years. 14 years was the previous record. That was Sandy. And Deepesta is half that longer again, 21 years. So 14 years was the record. And there were 10 gentlemen. They were all men, as you might imagine. Yeah. Who. Who went at least a decade between stints at the helm of a major league front office. And that's it. So no one has even come close. Which just cements in my mind that the Rockies are just doing their own thing. And so it's Sandy Alderson going to the mets. It's John McHale with the Expos in 1979. Bill Stoneman with the Angels in 2000. Dan Duquette with the Orioles in 2012. Whitey Herzog, best known as a manager, but was a GM with the Cardinals and Angels. Henry Peters with the Orioles, 1976. Mike Port, Red Sox, 2002. Sid Thrift with the Orioles in 2000, and Bill DeWitt with the Reds, 1961. These were all the comebacks from a decade or more of not running a baseball operations department. And there is some reason for hope there. There's some positive precedents there. Even Sandy presided over the Mets winning a pennant. And McHale and Duquette helped bring their teams back to the playoffs. And Bill Stoneman won the Angels first world championship in 2000. And Jean Michaels is on the list also. And he of course engineered the foundation of the Yankees dynasty when George Steinbrenner was suspended in the early 90s. So, you know Frank Lane, trader Lane gets in there too with the brewers in 1971. So some good news, some bad news. Yeah, largely good news. Whitey Herzog in his second go around when he was with the Angels, he was kind of, you know, had all sorts of strife and discord with ownership and then didn't last long. And then I had a quote from an agent who said at the time that like he just couldn't cross the bridge to this new era essentially of the 90s instead of the 80s. And that's a concern with Deepodesta too, because it's night and day 2005 to 2021. But even if you look at the last time he was in a MLB front office, which really was functionally 2015, early 2016 was when he went to the Browns. That's a long time too. That was like one season of Statcast. The ball has changed multiple times since then. The rules have changed, player development has changed. The, the major league meta that the tactics that are prevailing, everything has changed. And he said in the press release he had a quote about how I've always kept an eye on baseball. It's like, good, that's, that's something you would want probably in your top baseball operations executive keeping an eye on the sport. That's good. You know, maybe even multiple, multiple eyes if you have them, might, might be better. But you know, he's like, oh yeah, baseball. I still, I've paid it. I've kept up on that. But you know, look, I'm, I'm sure that he has, and he has people who can help him with that, but that's a lot of catch up to do. And if you're hiring someone specifically to help catch you up as an organization.

[Mitch Goldich]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You know, Walker Monfor, his quotes were all about like, we have to look at what other teams are doing and we have to import their best practices and we have to learn from them. And so we'll go get someone who can tell us what we're doing wrong and help us do the things that other competitors that have had more success are doing. And then you hire someone who's been working for the Cleveland prems for almost 10 years. It's just so very Rocky, so quaint.

[Mitch Goldich]

And look, you know, I've. I've made my thoughts on his hiring known, and I'm skeptical of it working. And I think that, like, there are parts of his time with Cleveland that he needs to account for and probably never will or at least will answer vaguely about. And I find that disappointing. But, like, I want for Rocky's fans for this to work, you know, and I would like there to be another competent front office. I do think that, like, having a. Maybe for reasons that are a little different than the ones you put forth in your column, but, like, having a wacky group can be useful because it's like when you get to a point where everything is so optimized and. And there's, you know, so much consistency, like, it can get kind of boring. So I guess. Sure. You know, weirdness, as you put it. Although, again, I'd like the weirdness to be the result of, like, you know, environmental factors that they can't do anything about. Then, you know, ownership incompetence. But fine. Like, does he know what a trajectory machine is? Right. Can he just.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Rockies do have one of those to their credit.

[Mitch Goldich]

Can he describe how, like, induced vertical break works? And again, like, you're right to say that he can. He can learn these things. He's obviously a smart guy. I don't mean to say that he's a. He's like, a dope, but he's just been worried about, like, cover two for the last couple of years. You know, he, like, he's. This isn't. This isn't his thing anymore. And it's, again, so much of putting. Putting a good baseball team on the field from the front office's perspective, isn't the GM being able to sit and build the model himself. It's hiring the right people and asking the right questions of those people and being able to, you know, grease the wheels in trade and do all of this other stuff. But he's not primed to do that other stuff. Well, at least from the. From jump, anyway. Right. Like, he doesn't. Who are his contacts in the industry?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

You know, can he call. Does he know who to call in? I don't know. Name a front office. No, he doesn't know. And again, he can learn, but it's like, if he. If. If that's what this is about, you know, it's about this guy who you think, once he's up to speed, is going to be able to, like, steer the front office in a good direction. Like, why are you bringing him in as the pobo? Right. Bring him in in a more junior capacity. Now, he probably doesn't want to do that because he has a senior role with a storied NFL franchise. But, like, that's the trajectory that would make this work. And so, again, it suggests that they can't do that because they are. They aren't able to get an actual pobo.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right. Sutter candidates rejected them.

[Mitch Goldich]

Right. And so I just, just. I just. I. I have not been convinced that this is going to work now. Maybe it will, you know, and I. Again, for the. For the folks of Colorado, I hope it does. You know, and. And I think it's bad for baseball to have a dope franchise, and we have a couple. I do think it's better to have a dopey franchise that occasionally spends money on players. And the Rockies do do that, even.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Though, you know, dopey, because, yeah, dope could be construed as good. I put dopey franchise.

[Mitch Goldich]

I can't pull off that application of dope. I'm aware of myself. You know, that doesn't. That doesn't trip off the tongue in a way that, like, people view as credible. So I'm, you know, I'm embracing my own limitations here. I do think that the Rockies, you know, they do occasionally spend money. Somewhere in this free agent class is a reliever who was like, but I was counting on.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, exactly. Right.

[Mitch Goldich]

I'm not gonna get my bag now. So that sucks.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You know, we'll talk about that in a second, I guess. Yes. I also, as I was working on this, I discovered that I don't know how this shakes out in FanGraphs WAR, but by Baseball Reference WAR, the 2025 Rockies had the second lowest Team WAR total of the modern era, just going back to the advent of the AL, essentially, or 1900. The fun fact was spoiled by the 1954 Philadelphia A's, who were at, like, negative 4. Baseball Reference War. Yeah. And this year's Rockies were at negative 3.8 within range of, you know, once they recalculate the park factors after the fact, and maybe. Maybe they'll end up at the worst. But that suggests that it really can't get much worse. Right. So that's the. The silver lining, the saving grace, I guess if this. This goes badly. Well, it's already going about as badly as it possibly could. One thing that will go well is that we can continue to call him Paul de Pobo, which I appreciate. And a little bit of analysis that was Done by listener and Patreon supporter Andrew M. On our discord group. He pointed out, because, you know, we've had a lot of fun with, with Buster Pobo and. And now Paul de Pobo, and you have Jerry Depobo. There's just a lot to work with here. And Andrew. Yeah. And Andrew pointed out that PO and BO are dramatically overrepresented in the major league pobo population, which I. I think we're up to 22 Pobos now. It's kind of incredible how it feels. Fairly recent that we were all saying pobo. What? President of baseball operation. What is that? What happened to gm? The title inflation has happened so quickly that. But now it's like if you're just a gm, you're in a distinct minority. If you're a GM who is actually the top dog in the front office.

[Mitch Goldich]

Right. The lead decision maker.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Fairly rare now. So. Which I guess makes sense because once it catches on, it snowballs. Like, once you have a couple Pobos, then the GMs are like, well, wait, I have the same rank as this person. Give me the. Yeah. Even if I'm not going anywhere, I just want it on my business card.

[Mitch Goldich]

Especially if you're not going anywhere.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Mitch Goldich]

Like, true.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Part of the.

[Mitch Goldich]

Part of why we have the title creep that we have is that, like, this is the primary mechanism by which they deny interviews to promising front office folks who want to go elsewhere. They're like, well, we'll give you a title bump. And they normally get a little bump in pay, too. But it's like that's part of what has driven the title inflation. And also just title madness. Some of these titles, Ben, they're bonkers.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Andrew found that surnames containing poe or bo make up five of the 22 teams with a POBO. So that's 22.7% of Pobos have a po or bow in their last name, lending itself. Yeah, it's. It's really unlikely because we have Jerry to Pobo. We have Buster Pobo, we have Paul de Pobo. We have now Paul Taboni, who's I guess, Paul Tobo. Paul Tobo.

[Mitch Goldich]

Paul Tobo. That's the best one of all.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Paul Tobo. I guess it depends if you need to encompass the full name, then it would be like Paul to Pobo.

[Mitch Goldich]

Right. We have to bring rigor to this exercise. That's right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. And then there's Alex Anthopoulos, who has the po. But it. It doesn't sound like Poe usually when you say it. And so it's kind of awkward if.

[Mitch Goldich]

You'Re like, yeah, you can't include that. No.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Alexandra Bolus. It doesn't quite, but it's. It works in writing a little bit better. Anyway, Andrew5 of sound like you're about.

[Mitch Goldich]

To say he's a pusher with no brain. That unstoppable song. Remember that horrible unstoppable song?

[Ben Lindbergh]

But I. I do. I will. Yes. End that cultural reference of yours. So, Andrew finally.

[Mitch Goldich]

Thank God.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He said, as a comparison, the MLB player pool, 1469 players in 2025, only 1.77% of them. Thank you for going out to multiple decimal places. Had either Poe or Bo in their surname. And so this is dramatic overrepresentation. Po in particular. Yeah. So he finds that only 0.68% of the player pool has a Po, but 18.2% of the PoBo pool. It's just.

[Mitch Goldich]

My God.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't know if this is nominative determinism or if it's just chance, but I really greatly appreciate.

[Mitch Goldich]

You're not sure if it's just chance. You're not just. That's not your. I mean, go to explanation.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maybe in the back of your mind, it's just a subliminal. I. Po. I. I appreciate the oppo. Ertunity. That didn't really work, but, yeah, I thought it worked. My point, there's just a lot of. A lot of PO potentials here, I thought.

[Mitch Goldich]

I think it works. See, I'm bringing. See how I'm bringing all this generosity to the pod today. Bringing all this.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I appreciate it.

[Mitch Goldich]

I think that this is a profoundly meaningless finding, but an interesting one nonetheless. And I also appreciate going out to two decimal places because, like, you gotta have rigor. You know, you can't just be winging it. If you're winging it, you'll never be a pobo or po, bro. Or. Yeah, wasn't somebody ahead of baseball ops? And we were. We were gonna get to call them the hobo. Hobo.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Well, we weren't sure when. When the Nationals hired Paul Taboni, it was not immediately reported that he was a pobo. He is. But, yes, for a while, I was. I was hedging with hobo. They are all technically hobos, but it's just not their actual title.

[Mitch Goldich]

No, I think. I think.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is there one.

[Mitch Goldich]

I think that there's. I think that there's a hobo. Somebody texted me about this. Oh, yeah. Okay, Wait. I'm finding it. So Buster only tweeted on October 22 about the news that new Angels manager Kurt Suzuki has a one year deal. An executive with another team notes with the Rocky seemingly headed toward a hobo. Oh, maybe this is a, maybe this is a typo toward a hobo hiring.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay.

[Mitch Goldich]

Funny to envision Paul Podesta like showing up in Denver with a bindle. You know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, we could refer to. They are heads of baseball operations but that's not their actual title I don't think like on the listing on the list heads. But yeah, I like them both.

[Mitch Goldich]

I know that there's like sensitivity around hobo. I don't mean to be insensitive to our unhoused neighbors. I'm imagining like a cartoon like Great Depression era hobo with a bindle. Like riding the rails, you know, like Paul De Podesta took an extra day to get to Denver because he had to find a train that went from Cleveland West. Yeah, you know, like a, like a hobo. Like a, like a hobo.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'd appreciate it if someone went that way. Okay. And just catching up quickly, there was a question we got during the playoffs from Nathan. Did the Mets just set a record for most days in playoff position without making the playoffs? I put this to Michael Mountain, Patreon supporter, sometimes Stat Blast correspondent who said I'm not confident enough in my ability to retroactively calculate tiebreakers to say definitively most days in play opposition. However, I counted 178 days this season where the Mets were either leading the NL east or no worse than tied with The Wild Card 3 team March 28th in a four way tie with a one in one record. And every day from April 5th to the end of the season, including at the end of the last day of the season. True, they lost on a tiebreaker. And he says that that 178 day figure, at least nominally in playoff position ties a record for a non post season team set by. Of course this probably won't surprise Mets fans. The 2007 Mets who held a seven game lead on September 12th but lost 12 of their last 17 games to hand the division title to the Phillies. Yeah, that, that did happen.

[Mitch Goldich]

It did happen. I, I, you know, if it wasn't the Mets though, it would have probably been maybe a different Mets team. It was always going to be the Mets. You've always been the Mets.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Lightning has struck that team repeatedly. It's true. Also a question from yeah, Patreon supporter Jack Morris. Not that one. I assume in game five, the blue taste.

[Mitch Goldich]

That would be wild.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Quite a plot twist.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yes, if you would. I would be shocked by that jump scare, you know, I really would too.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I would, I'd welcome his support, but I don't expect it. In Game 5 of the World Series, the Blue Jays had scored two runs in three pitches. Turns out that was enough scoring to win the game because the Dodger scored one run. Is there any way to figure out if that's a World Series record for the fastest winning run scored in playoff or World Series history? And Michael found that including this year's game five, there are 16 games in World Series history where a team scored two or more runs in the top of the first inning and didn't allow more than one run in the entire game. The quickest of any of them getting there got their last necessary run before this year was 2018, Game 5, when the Red Sox scored two runs in the first six pitches of the game and won 5 to 1. That's not just the World Series record, it's the record for any postseason game. But this year's Game five is now the record because it took even less time than that. And the game it took the record from was also a simultaneous record holder for both the World Series and the postseason as a whole. All right, we sorted that out and the last one. Here is a question that we got from Patreon supporter Robert, who says in his cup of Coffee newsletter this was in mid October. Craig Calcatera noted Mike Greenwell's passing with this observation. Greenwell was a third round draft pick by Boston in 1982. He broke into the bigs in 1985 and after some time moving up and down between the minors and the majors, stuck for good as the Red Sox everyday left fielder in 1988. He had big shoes to fill as Boston's three previous everyday left fielders, Jim Rice, Carl Yastremski and Ted Williams, would all eventually be inducted into the hall of Fame. Greenwell wasn't quite on their level, but enjoyed a fine career all the same, all 12 seasons of which came with the Red Sox. So here's Robert's question. In the modern era, what's the longest stretch in which a team's primary left fielders have played their entire careers for that team? So sort of this, this unbroken string, and I guess it's so worth noted that it was, it was not entirely unbroken. Robert did note that according to Baseball Reference, there were a couple of years between Yaz and Rice when Tommy Harper was the primary left fielder. So the Red Sox can't claim a consecutive streak of single term Left fielders from 1946 When Williams returned from World War II to 1996, the last season for Mike Greenwell the Gator. So what team would have the longest streak? And I put this to Michael as well and he found I'm not sure exactly how Baseball Reference makes their primary fielder determinations for the team seasons pages, but the metric I chose to use was which player made the most starts at this position for the season. Seems reasonable for cases where multiple players tied for the lead in starts. If any of them was a single franchise player, I counted it as valid. 50 years would be an incredible streak, but as Robert noted, a few things conspire against the Red Sox here. Even after Ted returned from World War II, his streak of patrolling the Green Monster was interrupted by a return to active duty in Korea, during which time Hoot Evers Hoot Evers was acquired from the Tigers to fill in. What a hoot. Then Yaz's tenure was interrupted twice, once when he was moved to center field for a season to let the rookie Tony Clingle try out left field. Then Tommy Harper was the primary left fielder in 1973 for one year before Jim Rice debuted. So the Red Sox longest streak of primary left fielders being single franchise guys is actually 18 seasons from 1974 to 1991. Yaz, rice and Greenwell Baseball Reference indicates Tommy Harper as the primary left fielder in 74, probably because in their calculations they first lock in Yaz at first base. While that is the position he played most often that year, his playing time was split 57% to 43% between first and left, and he still started more games and played more innings in left than Tommy Harper did. So Michael says, I don't have any problem with including 74 as part of the streak. 18 seasons is the record for any team having a streak of primary left fielders being single franchise guys. It is not the longest streak at any position though. That honor goes to the Yankees shortstops of 1932-1954, a 23 year span comprising the careers of Frankie Crisetti, the Crow and Phil Rizzuto plus one year of wartime call up Mike Milicevich to connect them. Another 18 year streak is currently active. Cincinnati has not fielded a primary first baseman who wasn't a lifetime Red since Scott Hatteberg in 2007, the year that Joey Votto was a September call up. Since Votto's retirement, the tradition has been carried on by Spencer Steer. The streak is currently at 18 seasons, but if Steer ends up moving to another team it would be reset to 15 years through 2022 that would reinstate the Twins as the longest streak of single franchise first baseman at 16 years with Kenter Beck and Scott Stahoviak from 1982-97. So the longest streaks at other positions 18 years for the Detroit Tigers at second base, Lou Whitaker alone from 78 to 95 snubbed yet again from the hall of Fame eligibility. We got to get into that with Jaffe at some point. Third base 18 years for the Orioles All Brooks Robinson 1958-75 Right field 18 years for the Pirates All Roberto Clemente 1955-72 Catcher 17 years tied between the Yankees with Bill Dickey and Mike Garbar 1929-45 Garbar and the Cardinals Yaddy alone 2005-2021 Yaddy or Molina and center field 17 years for the Yankees makes sense. Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle 1946-62 and lastly, several teams have never had a single franchise player be the primary fielder for them at a given position in any season. Mostly expansion franchises, but a few surprising ones. The Diamondbacks never fielded a career long Diamondback as their primary catcher, first baseman, second baseman, third baseman or left fielder. The Reyes have never fielded a career Ray as their primary catcher. The Rockies have never fielded a career Rocky as their primary left fielder. The Marlins have never had a career long Marlin as their primary first baseman, second baseman, third baseman or left fielder. The Blue Jays have never had a career Blue Jay as their primary center fielder or right fielder. The Mariners have never fielded a career Mariner as their primary shortstop or right fielder. The Padres never had a career Padre as their primary left fielder. Washington never a career long national or Expo as their primary right fielder. The Mets never a primary right fielder who was a Met only the Rangers never a career long Ranger as their primary first baseman or shortstop. And the Athletics have never had a primary center fielder who was an a only dating back to 1901. So that's fun. And if you want the shortstop streak limited to integration ERA only then the record belongs to the Big Red machine and Davey Concepcion 16 seasons 70 to 85 I was sort of sorry to see the news about Mike Greenwell because I had I had had fond associations with Mike Greenwell for whatever reason it's I I don't know why because I wasn't a Red Sox fan and I barely remember actually watching Mike Greenwell play because his last season was was 96. But I, I think, you know, a lot of Red Sox fans felt fond of him because he he came up and he had a big rookie year and then he had a huge, almost MVP year in, in 88. He was a runner up in the MVP and an all Star that year and the next year. And aesthetically pleasing stats like career.300 hitter, you know, like just walked more than he struck out. Was just like, you know, not quite as good as maybe he seemed like he was going to be originally and then retired after his age 32 season. But he was, he was fun for a while. He was. I had like, maybe it was because I had baseball cards of him and I, I ascribed a lot of value and prestige to having been an All Star when I was sorting my baseball cards. And Mike Greenwell was an All Star, so I, I think, you know, there's like, he's punching above his weight in how fondly fans remember him. Even me, who I was the opposite. The antithesis of a Red Sox fan. Also helps to have a good nickname. Gator. That's a good word. So RIP Mike Greenwell.

[Mitch Goldich]

I don't think we need Jack Morris as Patreon support, although he could, he could be doing penance maybe. Maybe he'd be doing things.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maybe we could change his minds about some things if he listened. Who knows? Maybe he'd change our minds. Maybe. But RIP Mike Greenwell. Also RIP Jesus Montero. We never mentioned that because we were in the middle of the playoffs. But like, you know, he obviously had importance to us as Yankees slash, Mariners fans and those were the two franchises he played for. And yeah, so young. You know, he got into a motorcycle accident in, in Venezuela and he was 35 years old and yeah, I mean, yeah, you look back at his career like he was just such a, a huge prospect for the Yankees and then came up in 2011 just for a cup of coffee and was amazing in that cup of coffee. And then they traded him right away to the Mariners and obviously, you know, they kind of had some doubts about his career long term and his defense and whether he could catch and all the rest. It was sort of like a preview of what would happen when Gary Sanchez came up kind of. But like, Yankees fans were so excited about Jesus Montero and then, yeah, he went to the Mariners in the Michael Pineda trade and didn't. Didn't play all that well or last all that long with them and was just sort of a sub replacement level guy for him. So it was, it was sort of a sad story of a prospect not panning out the way that he was expected to. But then it became a sadder story of someone who was taken away quite young.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah, Feels like, you know, unfortunately every off season there there's a guy or two who has like a vehicle related tragedy and yeah, it's just so Sad. Poor guy, 35, that's way too young. Just way too young.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right, let's dispense with our draft. This is an annual tradition for us that we've been doing for more than a decade. I believe 2014 was the first free agent contracts over under draft. And as usual, we will be working from MLB trade rumors top 50. They've been doing their free agent rankings for something like 20 years and we've been piggybacking on them for this exercise where essentially we try to identify points of disagreement with their projections for the free agent's earnings. And then we say over or under and we each pick eight players. And the way the scoring works is if we are directionally right, if we say that someone was over the amount that MLB Trade Rumors projected, and they do indeed make more than that, then we get the difference between what MLB Trade Rumors predicted and their actual total contract amount. And also get a $10 million bonus for picking in the right direction. And that applies to. If we pick an under and we're correct on the under, it's like the, the absolute value sort of. It's like the total discrepancy between the predicted and the actual. If we picked in the right direction, then we get that discrepancy added to our tally plus the bonuses for being right and that's it essentially. And then we add up all of those totals at the end and whoever has the most on their ledger wins the draft. And you, you won the draft handily hand last year.

[Mitch Goldich]

I did?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. You. You cleaned my clock. You had a total of more than 300 million and I had a mere hundred million. And so you, you wiped me out there. You made bank on taking the over on the Juan Soto prediction and taking the under on Pete Alonso and the under on Alex Bregman. Those were big gainers for you. And if you get it wrong, by the way, I guess we should note that that gets subtracted from your total too. So if you pick over and it's actually under. Yeah. Then it's debited.

[Mitch Goldich]

And last season that looked like it was going to be devastating for me because I took the under on Snell, if you recall, and he went way over. And I was like, I'm cooked. My goose is thoroughly cooked. And then Juan Soda was like, I got you, girl.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And.

[Mitch Goldich]

And I One handedly snow was a.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Rounding error for you.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah, yeah. I am far less confident though this year, I gotta say because. Yes, and I don't want to be, I don't want this to read as like a knock on trade rumors because that's not how I mean it. But you know, in a lot of years there are some obvious, at least to my mind, unders to be had and some of that is that in a lot of years you have a more impressive free agent class than this one. And so there's just, there's just a lot more room to take an an under and feel good about it. And sometimes an over, sometimes an over. Those are always more fun. Although they're rare to be candid. But the real tight, a lot of these this year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Really? Yeah, it's really tight. They've really refined their process in a way that is probably good but might make this draft a little less flawless. So if it turns out that, that they just nailed all of these predictions then maybe we'll have to retire this draft. But we'll give it right, we'll give it one more year and see because last year there was still some significant discrepancies. But yeah, they have four bylines on their list now and you know, it's kind of like their wisdom of crowdsing it a little bit. Like, you know, they've got multiple people and they're going through multiple revisions and bouncing things off each other and maybe that leads to just, you know, some less exuberance perhaps when it comes to certain cases or over or underestimating, you know, through that debate process you're probably getting fewer outliers I guess. So whether it's actually more accurate or not, I don't know. But it's definitely closer to my own barometer. So yeah, I don't have a whole lot of picks on my board here where I'm like itching to get the number one pick here because I think it's such a slam dunk really. Which I guess I will get the number one pick because we usually just whoever lost the previous year gets it.

[Mitch Goldich]

Cleaned your clock last year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, exactly. So yeah, I guess I will go and boy, it's like number one pick and nothing's like jumping out at me as the most obvious one, but what.

[Mitch Goldich]

Are you gonna do?

[Ben Lindbergh]

I mean, I guess and this feels roughly right to me but I guess, guess just because there's the most potential maybe for it to be under, I guess I'll take the under on, on Kyle Tucker just because you Know it, it feels reasonable. I mean they picked and by the way, we're going total contract size. That's it. So you know, you don't have to.

[Mitch Goldich]

Nail the number of years.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, yeah, don't have to get years and deferrals and yeah opt outs and incentives. It's just the guaranteed top line number. That's it. So they have 400 million for Kyle Tucker over 11 years for what it's worth. And it doesn't feel way off to me but I think there's, there's room just because it's such a big number and, and a much bigger number, like almost double the next biggest number and because of that there are bigger error bars I think. And so if it ended up being 350 or something, you know, that would still be a big quote unquote gain for me even though it wasn't wildly off. So I think, think I'm gonna take Tucker and you know, he could end up in that range. I, I think this exercise is useful. I mean as we always say, it's not like we're, we're rooting for anyone to do worse in free agency.

[Mitch Goldich]

You know, it's always a weird one because I'm like, I want, I want the boys to make their.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

Get their bag as the young people say.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I'm not hoping Kyle Tucker makes less than 400 million or anything. We do this because it's kind of a fun intellectual exercise and it's something that to tries track and talk about as the off season unfolds and maybe sometimes we just are high or low on a particular free agent and want to kind of go to the mat for them a little bit and that's interesting to talk about. So yeah, I'm taking under on Kyle Tucker. You know, it, it could end up being fewer than 11 years maybe. Right. And maybe the AAV is spot on, but it's just shorter term or maybe some of the injury concerns the last couple years or, or him being like a great all around player but now not dominant in any respect. Yeah, it wouldn't take a lot for him to end up under 400. You know, just because we've had Shohei and Soto, you know, with huge numbers, we can't be anchored to that. As we talked to Clemens about last week, you know, our streak of like having a new high score every off season probably going to be snapped this winter.

[Mitch Goldich]

I often when I diverge from an estimate it is on the effect of the years on the total guarantee rather than the av like I think they dial in the AAV piece of it. It pretty well most of the time, but when I'm taking it under, it's generally because I think that the contract that they're putting forth is just gonna have a shorter duration than what they're proposing. So. All right. Okay. Oh, gosh. I don't want to be this person, but I'm gonna. So I'm gonna take the under on Murakami, who they have at eight years and 180 million. I do think that he will get a long deal, but. But I think that, you know, it's. It's so funny the way that the conversation around him is evolving. I know that, like, the contact concerns with Murakami are becoming a greater part of the conversation with public facing folks. Teams have been aware of his contact issues for a long time. Like, this is not new information to them. And as we talked about with Eric, I'm sure there will be a club that looks at his, you know, health issues over the last couple of years and their own player Dev, and it's like, well, the combination of a swing change and just improved health are going to let this guy actualize all that power against big league velocity. But I think that enough teams will be skeptical to put sort of a dampener on his market. And so I'm taking the under there.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Okay. I think that's a good one. I'm. I'm intrigued by Murakami, obviously. And if you'd asked me a few years ago, I want him to come.

[Mitch Goldich]

Be like a. I want him to be like a power goofy like, that would be.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh, me too.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah, that'd be so fun. But I. The case that Eric made, I find persuasive, that it will be a little. It'll be a little iffy. It might be iffy in a way that affects this market.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So, yeah, if you had asked me a few years ago, I would have taken way over on this. But now there are a few more concerns. Okay, I'm going to take the under on Trent Grisham. Trent Grisham. They have at 66 million over four years. Now, part of this is that as we record the qualifying offer, decisions have not been rendered. So there's some chance that he could accept. I saw a report that he probably won't, and I think he probably won't. But, you know, he hasn't rejected it yet. So if he were to take it, well, that would be an easy under for me. But also, even if he rejects the qualifying offer, is he going to do that much better than that with the draft pick compensation attached at that point, I just, I don't know because offensively he was kind of a one year wonder at least when it comes to the power output that he just showed. And if he's not as elite a defender, like 34 homers, I mean that was double his previous single season high. So I don't know whether that's the new normal for him at 29 years old. And so if he just just goes back to being what he was in the previous three seasons, which was good glove guy, below average bat, teams aren't going to pay a ton for that. Like he was almost kind of an afterthought in the, the trade. Right. And wasn't even starting as regularly until this year. Obviously was very valuable and, and worked out for the Yankees. But yeah, combination of qualifying offer potential plus draft pick compensation, plus teams maybe not buying the power bat. I could see it coming in under.

[Mitch Goldich]

I was surprised that he got qoed candidly. But yeah, that was just me. Okay, I'm gonna be bold. I'm gonna take an over. I'm gonna take an over.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Ben, do it.

[Mitch Goldich]

I'm taking the over on Edwin Diaz at 4 years and 82 million. I'm taking the over.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay.

[Mitch Goldich]

I think he's gonna get more than that. That's why I'm taking the over. I think that the gap, you know, I'm aware of the age piece of it but. And you know, he has vacillated in terms of his performance some, but. But I think he's just clearly the best relief arm. And as we discussed with Ben, like that is a segment of the market that tends to do a little bit better than you might expect. And I think particularly for the premium guys who have obvious postseason utility in a way that can really make that kind of play up, I think that they, they tend to do better still. And I think that like my sense of the method bets this off season is that like they obviously there isn't another $700 million and change deal on offer for anyone out there. But even if it were like, I think they will still spend this offseason but the way that they will do it will be a little more strategic and I don't know, a lot is going to depend on if Pete Alonso really thinks he can get seven years or if there will be a paucity of participation in his market or you.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Scap worse all the it.

[Mitch Goldich]

See how I had the piece. I just had that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, and you didn't Ready? Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

That's what a Gilmore will do for you. I, I just, I, I think he'll do a little bit better. Even if it's not a lot better, I think he'll do a little bit better. So I'm taking the S. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right. I am going to go with Glaber. I'm, I'm dancing with the qualifying offers again here. I'm sticking to my guns on Glaber being underrated. They are projecting him to accept the qualifying.

[Mitch Goldich]

I think he'll just take the cue.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He very well might. In which case, case this will do nothing for me. It won't hurt me. No, it'll be right. So there's no downside risk here other than the opportunity cost of not making anything but won't subtract anything. And there's a chance that he won't accept the qualifying offer. The latest reporting I saw was that he hadn't made a decision. So that doesn't help either way. But I think he might reject it and then do better. And if he did reject it, I just, I still think like he's, he's worth more than that. And you know, not on an annual basis maybe, but if, if he wanted to maximize the term and get a longer term deal, I think he could or should and thus would get more than 22 million. So this is purely an upside play. Just banking on the possibility that he will not accept the qualifying offer in which case I think he could, who knows, double or triple this amount maybe. I kind of overestimated his market last year and I don't know whether it's else. Yeah, I don't know whether it's any more robust this year even coming off of a solid season. But yeah, I'm just, I'm going to take a flyer on that.

[Mitch Goldich]

I don't feel good, I don't feel good about what I'm about to do because I want a rebound from him. But I'm going to take the under on gallon at 4 years and 80 million y. I think the odds of him accepting the QO are low, although I could see him doing it to have a rebound season. But I, I, I, he's in a weird spot. Cause it's like I think that the concerns about his bounce back are significant enough that the fact that there's draft pick compensation attached to him is going to suppress his market. But I also think he's going to be motivated to leave Arizona and just like try to get right with a different dev group. But I think if he does that he's not getting 80 million. Um, but I think mostly that's a year thing rather than a AAV thing. So I'm taking the under on gallon. But I hope he gets right because I really like Zach Allen and I enjoyed watching him pitch here. So.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yep, I considered that one also. And, and there's some possibility that maybe he takes a pillow contract kind of thing. Just like make good deals. Yeah. Show that he's healthy and good again and then try to cash in. In which case then you would cash in because he would be under 80 million. Okay.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah, almost certainly.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right, well, I like taking overs. It's more fun. All else being able to take it over. So. So I'm going to take the over on Tyler Malley, who. Yeah, they have Tyler Malley at 1 year and 15 million. Yeah, that's, that's, that's low for Tyler. I think so. Yeah, I agree. I mean he had injuries obviously. Like he had a rotator cuff strain, cost him a few months, pitched well when he was healthy and then returned at the end of the season, which I think is important. You know, even if you're making two starts, just, just show that you can. Right?

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so, you know, after he lost most of 2024 and 2023 with Tommy John surgery and there's a lot of injury stuff going on here, but when he's pitched he's been good and if teams could be convinced that he's more healthy than not, you know, maybe, maybe he, given all the injury issues, I guess he's, he could try to re. Establish himself as a more durable guy and then get a longer term deal. But maybe he tries to maximize his market now. You never know what will happen when you've had all those injuries. So yeah, I'm going to hope he at least gets a multi year deal in which case he should have no trouble exceeding 15.

[Mitch Goldich]

I'm going to, I feel so bad taking unders, but so many of the unders are more compelling. I'm going to take the under on a Suarez at 3 years and 6 63. Some of this is a year's thing, some of this is obviously like the power is, is so impressive, but I think that there's enough year to year variance with him that it's going to meaningfully impact his market and maybe it just ends up being a. A year's thing as much as anything else and not an AAV thing. But like it's not that he wasn't good. He, he wasn't just a first half Phenomenon. He had like a year of good performance from the second half of last year into the first half of this year, but then like it tanked so bad when he got back to Seattle. Important grand slams in the postseason aside. And he's 34 or he'll be next year, is his age 34 season. So I just think that it's going to end up being a little shorter than that. But I, I hope for his sake I'm wrong because he's just. Everyone has such good things to say about him as a clubhouse presence and like a mentor and like the hair is so I don't understand how, I don't understand how he does that. But I'm taking the under on Aohenio, bad as I feel about it. So.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay. All right, well, I guess I'll take an under also. I think I might take the under on Michael King.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, yeah. I don't know. This, this couldn't very well.

[Mitch Goldich]

This is going to be weighed down by my Michael King, Michael Caine confusion.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Probably not that they have him at 80 over four years.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I just, I could see him wanting to take a shorter term deal. That's, that's basically all this amounts to because he's coming off a down year. He had injuries.

[Mitch Goldich]

Injury.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. He's basically injured every part of himself or all his, the arm parts, at least. Those are the important parts for a pitcher or among them. So he, he got a qualifying offer. Right. So there's some Michael King.

[Mitch Goldich]

I believe so.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So there's a possibility that, that he might just take the qualifying offer and come back next year and hope to be healthier. So that's, that's kind of part of my calculus here that that, that might happen in which case big gain. And then, you know, I guess even if he didn't take the qualifying offer, maybe he'd find that teams were, were wary. I guess if he wanted to do a short term deal and then, you know, show that he's healthy and he might as well just take the qualifying offer, probably. Unless he misreads the market and rejects the qualifying offer and then there aren't really long term great offers out there for him. Like if he rejects the qualifying offer and tries to maximize the length, I could absolutely see him getting, getting a deal like 80 million. You know, he's, he's shown a lot of promise and performance in the past. But yeah, I'm just, you know, playing the odds that maybe he will settle for a shorter term arrangement.

[Mitch Goldich]

I'm gonna take the under feel so Rude, but I'm doing it anyway. I'm taking the under on Kyle Schwarber. They have Schwarber at five years and 135 million. Just feels like one year and like $35 million more money than I maybe think he's going to get. He's like, Schwarber's great, Schwarzer's great. Best pure bat available on the market this year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

Do you think?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

Do we think?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, seems like it.

[Mitch Goldich]

And I do think that guys like him. You know, speaking of dudes who play up in the postseason, he kind of does because he's got that power. He can be got obviously, but it's impressive skill set. But he's super defensively limited as in he's just a dh and so that's. That sort of naturally curbs his market. I think he's just going to end up being a Philly again if I had to hazard a guess on where he ends up. But you know, some of the bigger spending teams are probably not going to be in the Kyle Schwaber business because it's not like he can be a Dodger, can't really be a Yankee. I think that the. Well, maybe I'll save this thought for a later pick. But yeah, I'm going to take in the under there.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Sorry. Yeah, yeah. I mean I think if you, if you go by war, probably his contract will look like an overpay, but he's just, you know, there's a mystique to Kyle Schwartz and you know, all the big moments and just all the homer hitting. Like he'll do better than just a straight sort of WAR based projection.

[Mitch Goldich]

But even so, I think that means he's going to get like 105, $110 million.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I could see that. I wouldn't be shy shocked if he does exceed that. Just, I don't know, like big, big game player, you know, just like guy who hits tanks. Like I do believe he could keep, keep hitting tanks for a while. He is one of the best just home run hitters in the game. The best tanks, but yeah, like, you know, you call them the best pure hitter. He is. I guess there are a couple of ways. One could say that he is, yes, he's the best pure hitter. He's also pure hitter and that's it. So um, yeah, that does constrain his market. It, it limits the potential landing spots. But, but you know, they seem to like him there. The fans like him. Like maybe that's kind of a, you know, you overpay for the marquee value of a. A guy you like having around. Yeah. So. Okay. Hmm.

[Mitch Goldich]

Hmm.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I guess I'll go. You know, this is one of those where the upside isn't great, but maybe it's lower risk. I guess I'll take the under on Justin verlander.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

At 22 million.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah. Why is he getting more money than he did last year?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. This is like a qualifying offer amount for him. Right? That. Not that he has a qualifying offer, but. Yeah, that seems a little rich now. You know, he. He did absolutely pitch quite a bit better later in the season and looked, you know, if not like vintage Verlander, at least like. Absolutely. Someone you would want to have in your starting rotation potentially. But given the advanced age and some of the struggles this year and, you know, durability concerns and all the rest of it, I. Someone will want him. You know, he can. He can get a deal, but would it be 22 million? At this stage, I'm skeptical. So, you know, like, maybe if. If it's 15 or something instead, then I'm. I'm getting 7 million, but also the $10 million bonus if I. If I pick in the right direction, at least. So that's what I'm banking on.

[Mitch Goldich]

I think that's a good pick. Here's my next, hopefully good pick, which is sort of a counterweight, I guess, to the Diaz selection. I'm going to take the under on Devin Williams at 4 years and 68.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I almost did that. Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

Like, I think that Devin Williams is better than he pitched last. This last year. And he did course. Correct. Right. And things got better for him as. As they kind of went along toward the end there. But. But 68, that's. That's too much. I think that's too much for. For Williams. I do think that, like, he, you know, if you are looking for a closer and you don't want to pay up for Edwin Diaz and you're nervous about Suarez's velocity potentially declining and like, his track record, maybe you look at Devin Williams are like, oh, well, this is a good.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Good.

[Mitch Goldich]

This is a good opportunity. But part of that value proposition is that you can get him on the cheap relative to his press production. So I just don't buy it, you know?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Yep. I'm with you. I mean, his, like, FIP and XFIP basically looked like old Devin Williams, so I'm sure there will be interest. And totally, we know that teams are evaluating not so much based on the ERA and Yes. You know, not based on wins or whatever. For starters, they're looking at the underlying numbers. But yeah, it is kind of of tough when you have someone who had a near five era, lost his hold on the closer role, you know, and, and if the Yankees were treating him that way, like they're looking at the underlying stats too, and, and his stuff is pretty undiminished, but there are command issues. It was just a weird year and it was. Maybe someone just says, I don't know, just like everything went wrong and bad luck in New York and who knows, right. But, but the Yankees did decide that they couldn't keep running him out there. Now maybe that's partly because when a guy, guy blows a bunch of games for you, like, even if you do believe that he's gonna write the ship at some point, it's just like tough to sell to the team and the fans to just keep running him out there. So yeah, if this were a year ago, he'd blow by this number.

[Mitch Goldich]

Oh yeah. And, and definitely looking at G's money.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, we'll overlook the, the weird, you know, volatile, mercurial performance he had this year, but yeah, I, I think it's a solid pick. Okay. My second to last pick, I believe. What am I gonna do here? I guess I'll go, oh, I don't know. I feel like I'm in the territory where I, I'm, I'm not feeling strongly about anything anymore. Which is a credit to MLB Trade rumors. And by the way, love the work they do over there. And this is never meant as a criticism of them really. It's, you know, any time like, like to do a ranking and produce a ranking from scratch is far harder than to isolate single picks, cherry pick certain picks and say, oh, I disagree with this one. So it makes sense that, you know, generally we're, we're right on the whole with these draft picks because we're selectively picking the ones that stand out to us and we don't have to do the hard work of putting the projection on the player in the first place. I guess I don't feel strongly about this one, but I guess I'll take the under on Dylan Cease. I, you know, they have him at 189. It seems reasonable. And again, like there aren't great aces available this off season. You got Cease, you've got from, you've got Imai. Like there's just no, no doubter, top of the rotation type there. So maybe someone who just says, well, we need the best available starter decides that that's Dylan Cease. But this is almost more of a. Like, maybe he doesn't get seven years. Maybe he just gets. It's five or six or something. That's basically what this is. So, yeah, don't cease under at 189.

[Mitch Goldich]

I'm going to take the over. This is, like, kind of limited impact potentially, but I'm. I bet the. The bonus would be more than the Delta, but I'm going to take the over on Tyler Rogers at 2 years and 18 million. That feels too low. That feels too low. I find I found Ben's argument about, like, the market kind of giving you a sense of how teams value that guy. Right. Relative to, like, what the projections might inspire you to think to be instructive. And I think he does. I don't know that he does better than two years, but I feel like the AV will be a little bit higher than that than. Than getting to 18. That feels too low. So I'm taking over on Rogers. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay. All right.

[Mitch Goldich]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right. So we each have one pick left to play with. Yeah. I'm scanning my options here. I don't know. I think I'm tempted to do this, but I'm, you know, I'm gonna take an over because it'll make me feel good. To end on an up note, I'm gonna take the over on Ranger Suarez. So, you know, I just talked about how the starting pitching market isn't super strong. They have Ranger at 115. Yeah. Which, you know, again, all these are fairly reasonable, but I could see them doing a bit. Bit better than that. 115. Five years. He's only 30 years old. You know, this is like, maybe he gets. Maybe he gets six years or something.

[Mitch Goldich]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so I'm taking the over on Ranger. And, you know, he's had really good results. He's been consistent. He's kind of overshadowed because he's just been in that stacked Phillies rotation where, you know, he'll be, like, the fourth starter or something. And he's. He's really excellent and maybe doesn't entirely fit the profile of, like, modern, successful starting pitcher in some respects, but, you know, he's. He's been pretty consistent and pretty durable. And, yeah, I'm gonna guess that someone goes a little longer on him.

[Mitch Goldich]

Um, do I want to end optimistically or do I want to be sassy?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Do you want to win?

[Mitch Goldich]

Well, I. I mean, I want to win, but I'm going to take the under on Alonzo, who they have at four years and 110 million.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

Okay. So here's the thing about Pete Alonso. I let me tell you about Pete Alonso. I think, well, first of all, he's not getting seven years. I find that to be. And they didn't allege that to be clear, but Pete Alonso has reportedly said that he is interested in a seven year contract which like again I don't want to sound anti player, but I also want to say, hey, good luck buddy. That doesn't seem likely to be me. I do imagine that there might just be a great pull for him to go back to the Mets, which might be overstating things because he. Here's, here's the thing I actually want to say about Pete Alonso. Pete Alonso, you know, he can play first base, but there might come a time where Pete Alonso is just better served to DH regularly and the Mets maybe don't want to clog that spot because there might come a time when Juan Soto is best served by DHing primarily, although that might happen after four years. So maybe it'd be fine. But if he signs a seven year deal that would be potentially disastrous. So I just think that like he doesn't come with a lot of flexibility attached, both literal and figurative. I don't know that he'll do a lot less. I don't know that he'll do a lot less. But we've kind of seen this guy's market evolve now. He obviously had a much better season going into free agency this year than the last time. So you figure out he'll do better than he did last time. But is he going to do $110 million?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Mitch Goldich]

I don't know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

A year older? Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, it seems like about the right number, but it could easily end up under that number. So okay, yeah, this is good. We'll monitor this, we'll track it. We'll have it in the usual places where we track these things. It'll be on the wiki, etc, maybe it'll be on the EW stats site. And I, I listed like almost half the guys on the list list on my draft board, which I think you'd think maybe I'd have fewer on the draft board because again, there weren't that many enticing prospects here. But I think I ended up with more just because I didn't feel that strongly about anyone. So I kind of like listed half the guys. I'm like, yeah, I guess I could see. Anyway, yeah, I, I considered like under on Imai at 150. I considered under on Polanco at, at 42. Just, you know, maybe he gets a two year dealership. But coming off his heroics, you know, I had, I had a bunch of other unders. I even had an over on Cody Ponce, maybe some. Yeah, the transformation. Yeah, I could see that.

[Mitch Goldich]

I had an over on him. I had an over on, you know, I could see real Musho doing better than two years and 30 million. Probably more on the AV side than the, the year side. Just because like, sure, he's been a two WAR guy for the last couple of seasons, but he is the best option at catcher, like dramatically. I know that maybe Ben saw less daylight between him and like Caratini and, and Jansen, but I didn't. So like I could see him doing better. I could see Woodruff doing worse than three years and 66 million because. Just because I expect he'll get two instead of three. I could see Val from market going any which way. So that's why I stayed away from it. Like earlier in the day, I was like, oh, maybe he'll do better than five years and 150. And then I was like, no, he won't. And then I was like, yeah, he will. And then I didn't draft him. Um, I could see Josh Naylor doing worse than five years and 90 million. I don't know what Luisa Rice's contract.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is going to look like.

[Mitch Goldich]

So I stayed away from that. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right, well, we'll see. Play along at home and we will return to this and tally up our scores when all is said and done and also when it's in progress. Okay. Meant to say, by the way, I think of the Rockies as a chaotic good team. That's their alignment. They try to do the right thing, but just in a kind of chaotic way. Also, I'm afraid we didn't fully do Scott Boris's quips justice. We hadn't seen the full transcript of his Bregman and Bellinger comments, for instance. So I'll play him for you. Here he is on Bregman now.

[Scott Boris]

We learned a lot about Bregman in 25 because in Boston prior to 25, they had a. They had a lot of lineup do not holes.

[Mitch Goldich]

And.

[Scott Boris]

Certainly prior to 25, Boston has been a kind of a club that's been. Has Duncan well below the playoff line. So I think it was a bad roast in Beantown and certainly and give the owners credit in 25, you know, they went out and spent some Starbucks to bring in a Bregman blend that led them to the playoffs. So I, I'm sure The Boston fans don't want this to be just a cup of coffee and no one wants a Brexit.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Truly something when you watch these videos and listen to them, you hear the repressed snickering from the collected baseball writers in the gaggle. Boris really takes his time unspooling these things because, you know, it's all just coming to him in the moment. I'll leave you with this full extended Bellinger riff because we were talking about the goose comparison. Actually, he worked pretty much every Top Gun character or catchphrase into this spiel. I will warn you, this goes on for a little while. Here it is.

[Scott Boris]

When you look at 25 season 25, I'd say among all the free Asian outfielders, he was the top gun of the class. You know, he was defensively a certainly a versatile viper in the outfield, playing both first base and all three outfield positions. And he was kind of a offensively, a middle lineup Merlin in the sense that he felt that, you know, he's providing power in production. The other thing about Belly that's kind of unique for a guy his age under 30, that, you know, he's played in all three markets, Louisiana, Chicago, New York. And so really, in many ways, he's an urban maverick, without a doubt. So I think that when you think about what he's done in an LA market, he was kind of Hollywood ringing for, you know, a championship mvp. He was kind of a Windy City Wolfman and getting the comeback player of the year. And in New York, he was a true iceman, cooling any thoughts that he couldn't hit behind Judge and lead the Yankees to a playoffs.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So.

[Scott Boris]

And the other thing about Mellinger this year is that he doesn't have a, you know, that the qualifying offer is that, you know, that goose is gone, so he's really out of it. So I think that, you know, when it comes to. To Bellinger, there's no question that, you know, the teams have a need. The need to belly proceed.

[Ben Lindbergh]

A need to belly proceed is just diabolical. Also, we said maybe he would stay away from plays on words based on Asian name. No, he did not. He had a Ha Seong Kim quip. Well, I think Kim is a hot song of the shortstop charts. No question. I think the availability of defensive premium shortstops in this market is very, very slim. So if you're looking for a premium defensive shortstop to play, I think it's hsk, you know, as corny and hackneyed as this can be, and it's so corny that it sort of circles all the way around to being kind of funny again. But it still is so absurd that that the most successful sports agent of all time, an absolute baseball power broker, a guy who's made many millions for players and also for himself, does this and is just so clearly tickled by doing this. This man is the most successful figure in his field, super agent Scott Boris, and yet it seems like the highlight of his job is getting to regale the writers with whatever tortured quips he can come up with. It is both terrible and truly special. We'll have some awards reactions for you next time, whatever reactions we have to the results announced this week. Maybe we can do some emails. We'll see. In the meantime, you can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks, as have the following five listeners Tom Dever, Matthew Stone, Timothy Sienko, Christopher Petit, and Joyce Lee. Thanks to all of you, Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, prioritized email answers, playoff live streams, discounts on merch and ad free FanQuest memberships, and so much more. Check out all the [e-mail] effectivelywild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangraphts.com youm can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Music and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook [e-mail] group effectivelywild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at R Effectivelywild and you can check the show notes for links to the stories and stats we cited today, as well as the site where you can sign up for Effectively Wild Secret Santa. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with one more episode before the end of the week. Talk to you then. Well, it's moments like these that make you ask how can you not be pedantic about baseball? If baseball were different, how different would it be? On the case with Light ripping all analytically, Crosstrek can compile Find a new understanding not effectively Wilder can you not be pedantic? Yes, when it comes to baseball, how.

[Mitch Goldich]

Can you not be pedantic?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Sam.