Effectively Wild Episode 2403: How Our Preseason Predictions Panned Out

FanGraphs Baseball Podcast — November 21, 2025
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)
Guests: Michael Bauman (FanGraphs), Ben Clemens (FanGraphs), Chris Hannel (EW Stats Team)

Episode Overview

This episode brings the annual tradition of reconvening the Effectively Wild panel to review their 2025 preseason predictions—examining which bold baseball prognostications hit, which missed, how the listener-submitted odds lined up, and crowning the year’s predictions champion. Chris Hannel, orchestrator of the contest and scorekeeper, returns to manage the results, games, and banter. The episode is rich with statistics, inside jokes, accountability, good-natured ribbing, and deeper dives into how prediction gamification impacts baseball fandom and podcast community culture.

Notable Games and Opening Banter

[02:49] “2025 College World Series Starting Pitching Matchup or First Amendment Supreme Court Case?”

Michael Bauman quizzes Ben Lindbergh by naming matchups (“Morse v. Frederick”) to guess their origins.
Highlights:
- Ben correctly identifies “Morse v. Frederick” as a SCOTUS case—“the Bong Hits for Jesus case.” (03:55)
- Michael: “You’re doing way better at this than I thought you would.” (04:32)
Tone: Playful, competitive, full of references to past games and inside jokes.
Memorable Quip:
- Ben: “Well, I finished over .500. That’s a winning ratio.”

[07:41] “Cedar Rapids Colonel or Character in the Star Wars Universe?”

Chris Hannel puts Bauman in the hot seat, with minor league player names versus Star Wars extended universe characters.
Highlights:
- Michael: “I’ve never used Star Wars because [Ben’s] knowledge—”
- Banter about the impossibility and depth of some names.

[12:09] Minor League Free Agent Draft Recap

How Did the Panelists Do?

Ben Lindbergh achieves a historic “10-for-10,” all his draftees making MLB appearances:
- Chris: “That is unprecedented. No one has ever gone 10-for-10.”
- Ben: “If I were to get a tattoo, I think it would be of my 2025 minor league free agent draft roster.”
- Meg: “I think that we should skin him alive.”
- Ultimately, Ben’s winning total was not the highest ever, but he’s the first to “bat around”—every pick making the majors.
- [16:31] Ben delivers an epic, mock-Oscar “acceptance speech.”
Meg Rowley: High projection, strong performance but edged out.
Ben Clemens: “Throwback method” got the least help from projections.

Timestamps:

[13:36] Ben’s “batting around” explanation
[16:51-18:24] Ben’s passionate monologue

[19:01] The Main Event: The 2025 Preseason Predictions Game

Introduction and Listener Participation

Each panelist made 10 bold preseason predictions; listeners graded the odds.
More than 1,500 ballots received, making this the most crowd-evaluated year yet.
Chris credits Sean McNamee, Michael Fazio, Michael Mountain, Raymond Chen, and the EW Stats Team for their work.

Timestamps:

[20:00] Listener engagement and website discussion
[20:54] Team recognition and a round of thanks
- Michael: “These guys like this podcast a lot, man.”

[21:54+] Reviewing the 2025 Preseason Predictions

The 40 predictions are revealed in order from most to least “bold,” based on listener-assigned odds. Each is presented with discussion, context, and scoring ramifications.

Boldest Predictions & Recap of Notables

[21:54] Ben Clemens’ Shohei Ohtani prediction (“will throw fastest starter pitch”):
- Listener boldness: 12%.
- Ohtani came close but was topped by other pitchers.
- “Bold effort by Shohei... he almost did it.”
[23:55] Michael Bauman’s Sabrina Carpenter prediction:
- “A major league player will date Sabrina Carpenter.”
- Highest number of 0% ratings, 13% likelihood.
- Inconclusive, “cannot accept a prediction on artistic interpretation.”
[25:03] Meg Rowley’s NL MVP pick for Ketel Marte:
- 16% boldness, Derailed by injury and entrenched contenders (Ohtani).
- Michael: “16% for him to be an LMVP is insane.”

...

[36:50] Rockies “qualifiers with negative WAR” prediction (Ben Clemens):
- 29% boldness, failed—no Rockies made the cut, “basically can’t happen,” Clemens admits.
[44:41] Ben Lindbergh’s Knuckleballers Prediction:
- “Three non-position player pitchers throw twenty knuckleballs each.”
- One succeeded, others fizzled—everyone “wants more knuckleballing.”
[52:20] Ben Lindbergh’s “Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, and Devin Williams > Juan Soto WAR and Yankees miss playoffs”
- Combo half correct (players outperformed Soto), but Yankees made playoffs.
[56:58] Daniel Vogelbach Memorial Trophy – “Cubs runs double Bears points in September” (Clemens):
- Fun, original, ultimately false—wins Best Commitment to the Bit.
[61:01] Meg Rowley’s “no repeat division winners besides Dodgers”:
- Too high a probability, eliminated early by Brewers and Phillies.
[66:35] Meg Rowley’s “at least two MLB teams will announce new controlling ownership”
- Controversial yes (due to White Sox sale agreement language)—“if the sale falls through in future, Meg loses the points,” adding future drama.
[86:45] Final Scoring:
- 1st: Meg Rowley (+73)
- 2nd: Ben Clemens (-109)
- 3rd: Michael Bauman (-253)
- 4th: Ben Lindbergh (-278, also “Mr. Chalk”)
- Listener Winner: Benjamin Hamler with 5910 points

Memorable Quotes:

Meg: “I think the key is to just not remember your predictions at all.” (88:32)
Michael [on being last]: “I was like, I only got one right?” (88:10)
Ben: “How is it possible that I was the most chalk and also the last place?” (87:50)
Ben: “This is my epitaph... These guys will be special to me the rest of my life.” (15:18, about minor league picks)

[80:35+] Extended Gilmore Girls Tangent

Meg Rowley and Michael Bauman debate Team Jess vs. Team Logan from Gilmore Girls.
Michael: “Team Logan person.”
Meg: “The real person who sucks is Rory.” (82:11)
Announced as pure podcast digression, with everyone playing along.

[90:41] Preview of Rule Addition for 2026

New twist: Each panelist will pick one prediction from each other panelist to “take the other side of the action.” If that prediction is wrong, the challenger will get the points; if more than one picks the same prediction, the points are split.
- Meg: “Very good rule change. Very good.”
- Chris: “An extra bit of sassiness to next year’s bold calls.”

Episode Themes & Insights

Community Engagement: Massive listener participation, deeper website and stats features, EW predictions feed an ecosystem beyond the podcast.
Podcast Culture: The episode centers the joy and humility of being wrong, the social aspect of baseball nerd-dom, and the camaraderie of recurring inside jokes and games.
Baseball Trends Reflections: Many “bold” predictions targeted about-to-change or stagnant trends (knuckleballs, base-stealing, attendance, etc.), with robust listener skepticism reflected in the odds.
Predictions as Fandom Fuel: Several hosts/judges testified that caring about bizarre predictions made for more fun and less stressful baseball-watching.

Segment Timestamps (Selected)

00:29 – Show open & introductions
02:49 – Bauman’s “Supreme Court Case or College World Series matchup?” game
07:41 – “Cedar Rapids Colonel or Star Wars character?” game
12:09 – Minor League Free Agent Draft Results
19:01 – Preseason Predictions Game introduction
21:54 – Boldest predictions reviewed (Shohei Ohtani, Sabrina Carpenter, Ketel Marte MVP, etc.)
36:50 – “Three Rockies 500 PA & negative WAR?” prediction
44:41 – Knuckleball prediction
52:20 – “Three combine for more WAR than Soto/Yankees miss playoffs?”
56:58 – Daniel Vogelbach “runs vs. points” award
61:01 – “No repeat division winners” prediction
66:35 – Ownership sale prediction, rule clarification
80:46 – Gilmore Girls digression
90:41 – “Take the other side of a prediction” new rule
86:45 – Final scores & leaderboard
93:28 – Closing banter, summing up, appreciation

Final Takeaways

Annual Traditions: Effectively Wild’s preseason predictions game is a core, much-loved tradition, with more listener buy-in, better data, and gamified engagement each year.
Peaks and Pitfalls: Even the “chalk” picks can go bust, and the boldest picks often hinge on delightful weirdness or luck.
Celebration of Community: Fans, stats team, co-hosts, and even friendly rivalry with sports betting’s zero-stakes fun are persistently celebrated.
2026 Is Coming: Next year’s contest will build in new wrinkles for even more banter, friendly sabotage, and accountability.

“You all participated… Well, one of us won.”
— Meg Rowley, triumphantly (93:28)

“Joy… No, you’re doing joy now. That’s new.”
— Michael Bauman, ribbing Ben as the group wraps up (93:46)

For more information, EW Stats site updates, and future contests, check links in show notes or visit the Effectively Wild community spaces.

Effectively Wild Episode 2403: How Our Preseason Predictions Panned Out

Episode Overview

Notable Games and Opening Banter

[02:49] “2025 College World Series Starting Pitching Matchup or First Amendment Supreme Court Case?”

Michael Bauman quizzes Ben Lindbergh by naming matchups (“Morse v. Frederick”) to guess their origins.
Highlights:
- Ben correctly identifies “Morse v. Frederick” as a SCOTUS case—“the Bong Hits for Jesus case.” (03:55)
- Michael: “You’re doing way better at this than I thought you would.” (04:32)
Tone: Playful, competitive, full of references to past games and inside jokes.
Memorable Quip:
- Ben: “Well, I finished over .500. That’s a winning ratio.”

[07:41] “Cedar Rapids Colonel or Character in the Star Wars Universe?”

Chris Hannel puts Bauman in the hot seat, with minor league player names versus Star Wars extended universe characters.
Highlights:
- Michael: “I’ve never used Star Wars because [Ben’s] knowledge—”
- Banter about the impossibility and depth of some names.

[12:09] Minor League Free Agent Draft Recap

How Did the Panelists Do?

Ben Lindbergh achieves a historic “10-for-10,” all his draftees making MLB appearances:
- Chris: “That is unprecedented. No one has ever gone 10-for-10.”
- Ben: “If I were to get a tattoo, I think it would be of my 2025 minor league free agent draft roster.”
- Meg: “I think that we should skin him alive.”
- Ultimately, Ben’s winning total was not the highest ever, but he’s the first to “bat around”—every pick making the majors.
- [16:31] Ben delivers an epic, mock-Oscar “acceptance speech.”
Meg Rowley: High projection, strong performance but edged out.
Ben Clemens: “Throwback method” got the least help from projections.

Timestamps:

[13:36] Ben’s “batting around” explanation
[16:51-18:24] Ben’s passionate monologue

[19:01] The Main Event: The 2025 Preseason Predictions Game

Introduction and Listener Participation

Each panelist made 10 bold preseason predictions; listeners graded the odds.
More than 1,500 ballots received, making this the most crowd-evaluated year yet.
Chris credits Sean McNamee, Michael Fazio, Michael Mountain, Raymond Chen, and the EW Stats Team for their work.

Timestamps:

[20:00] Listener engagement and website discussion
[20:54] Team recognition and a round of thanks
- Michael: “These guys like this podcast a lot, man.”

[21:54+] Reviewing the 2025 Preseason Predictions

The 40 predictions are revealed in order from most to least “bold,” based on listener-assigned odds. Each is presented with discussion, context, and scoring ramifications.

Boldest Predictions & Recap of Notables

[21:54] Ben Clemens’ Shohei Ohtani prediction (“will throw fastest starter pitch”):
- Listener boldness: 12%.
- Ohtani came close but was topped by other pitchers.
- “Bold effort by Shohei... he almost did it.”
[23:55] Michael Bauman’s Sabrina Carpenter prediction:
- “A major league player will date Sabrina Carpenter.”
- Highest number of 0% ratings, 13% likelihood.
- Inconclusive, “cannot accept a prediction on artistic interpretation.”
[25:03] Meg Rowley’s NL MVP pick for Ketel Marte:
- 16% boldness, Derailed by injury and entrenched contenders (Ohtani).
- Michael: “16% for him to be an LMVP is insane.”

...

[36:50] Rockies “qualifiers with negative WAR” prediction (Ben Clemens):
- 29% boldness, failed—no Rockies made the cut, “basically can’t happen,” Clemens admits.
[44:41] Ben Lindbergh’s Knuckleballers Prediction:
- “Three non-position player pitchers throw twenty knuckleballs each.”
- One succeeded, others fizzled—everyone “wants more knuckleballing.”
[52:20] Ben Lindbergh’s “Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, and Devin Williams > Juan Soto WAR and Yankees miss playoffs”
- Combo half correct (players outperformed Soto), but Yankees made playoffs.
[56:58] Daniel Vogelbach Memorial Trophy – “Cubs runs double Bears points in September” (Clemens):
- Fun, original, ultimately false—wins Best Commitment to the Bit.
[61:01] Meg Rowley’s “no repeat division winners besides Dodgers”:
- Too high a probability, eliminated early by Brewers and Phillies.
[66:35] Meg Rowley’s “at least two MLB teams will announce new controlling ownership”
- Controversial yes (due to White Sox sale agreement language)—“if the sale falls through in future, Meg loses the points,” adding future drama.
[86:45] Final Scoring:
- 1st: Meg Rowley (+73)
- 2nd: Ben Clemens (-109)
- 3rd: Michael Bauman (-253)
- 4th: Ben Lindbergh (-278, also “Mr. Chalk”)
- Listener Winner: Benjamin Hamler with 5910 points

Memorable Quotes:

Meg: “I think the key is to just not remember your predictions at all.” (88:32)
Michael [on being last]: “I was like, I only got one right?” (88:10)
Ben: “How is it possible that I was the most chalk and also the last place?” (87:50)
Ben: “This is my epitaph... These guys will be special to me the rest of my life.” (15:18, about minor league picks)

[80:35+] Extended Gilmore Girls Tangent

Meg Rowley and Michael Bauman debate Team Jess vs. Team Logan from Gilmore Girls.
Michael: “Team Logan person.”
Meg: “The real person who sucks is Rory.” (82:11)
Announced as pure podcast digression, with everyone playing along.

[90:41] Preview of Rule Addition for 2026

New twist: Each panelist will pick one prediction from each other panelist to “take the other side of the action.” If that prediction is wrong, the challenger will get the points; if more than one picks the same prediction, the points are split.
- Meg: “Very good rule change. Very good.”
- Chris: “An extra bit of sassiness to next year’s bold calls.”

Episode Themes & Insights

Community Engagement: Massive listener participation, deeper website and stats features, EW predictions feed an ecosystem beyond the podcast.
Podcast Culture: The episode centers the joy and humility of being wrong, the social aspect of baseball nerd-dom, and the camaraderie of recurring inside jokes and games.
Baseball Trends Reflections: Many “bold” predictions targeted about-to-change or stagnant trends (knuckleballs, base-stealing, attendance, etc.), with robust listener skepticism reflected in the odds.
Predictions as Fandom Fuel: Several hosts/judges testified that caring about bizarre predictions made for more fun and less stressful baseball-watching.

Segment Timestamps (Selected)

00:29 – Show open & introductions
02:49 – Bauman’s “Supreme Court Case or College World Series matchup?” game
07:41 – “Cedar Rapids Colonel or Star Wars character?” game
12:09 – Minor League Free Agent Draft Results
19:01 – Preseason Predictions Game introduction
21:54 – Boldest predictions reviewed (Shohei Ohtani, Sabrina Carpenter, Ketel Marte MVP, etc.)
36:50 – “Three Rockies 500 PA & negative WAR?” prediction
44:41 – Knuckleball prediction
52:20 – “Three combine for more WAR than Soto/Yankees miss playoffs?”
56:58 – Daniel Vogelbach “runs vs. points” award
61:01 – “No repeat division winners” prediction
66:35 – Ownership sale prediction, rule clarification
80:46 – Gilmore Girls digression
90:41 – “Take the other side of a prediction” new rule
86:45 – Final scores & leaderboard
93:28 – Closing banter, summing up, appreciation

Final Takeaways

Annual Traditions: Effectively Wild’s preseason predictions game is a core, much-loved tradition, with more listener buy-in, better data, and gamified engagement each year.
Peaks and Pitfalls: Even the “chalk” picks can go bust, and the boldest picks often hinge on delightful weirdness or luck.
Celebration of Community: Fans, stats team, co-hosts, and even friendly rivalry with sports betting’s zero-stakes fun are persistently celebrated.
2026 Is Coming: Next year’s contest will build in new wrinkles for even more banter, friendly sabotage, and accountability.

“You all participated… Well, one of us won.”
— Meg Rowley, triumphantly (93:28)

“Joy… No, you’re doing joy now. That’s new.”
— Michael Bauman, ribbing Ben as the group wraps up (93:46)

For more information, EW Stats site updates, and future contests, check links in show notes or visit the Effectively Wild community spaces.

Effectively Wild Episode 2403: How Our Preseason Predictions Panned Out

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Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2403: How Our Preseason Predictions Panned Out

Episode Overview

Notable Games and Opening Banter

[02:49] “2025 College World Series Starting Pitching Matchup or First Amendment Supreme Court Case?”

[07:41] “Cedar Rapids Colonel or Character in the Star Wars Universe?”

[12:09] Minor League Free Agent Draft Recap

How Did the Panelists Do?

Timestamps:

[19:01] The Main Event: The 2025 Preseason Predictions Game

Introduction and Listener Participation

Timestamps:

[21:54+] Reviewing the 2025 Preseason Predictions

Boldest Predictions & Recap of Notables

Memorable Quotes:

[80:35+] Extended Gilmore Girls Tangent

[90:41] Preview of Rule Addition for 2026

Episode Themes & Insights

Segment Timestamps (Selected)

Final Takeaways

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2403: How Our Preseason Predictions Panned Out

Episode Overview

Notable Games and Opening Banter

[02:49] “2025 College World Series Starting Pitching Matchup or First Amendment Supreme Court Case?”

[07:41] “Cedar Rapids Colonel or Character in the Star Wars Universe?”

[12:09] Minor League Free Agent Draft Recap

How Did the Panelists Do?

Timestamps:

[19:01] The Main Event: The 2025 Preseason Predictions Game

Introduction and Listener Participation

Timestamps:

[21:54+] Reviewing the 2025 Preseason Predictions

Boldest Predictions & Recap of Notables

Memorable Quotes:

[80:35+] Extended Gilmore Girls Tangent

[90:41] Preview of Rule Addition for 2026

Episode Themes & Insights

Segment Timestamps (Selected)

Final Takeaways