Effectively Wild Episode 2506: Hal and the Hall

FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Hosts: Meg Rowley (FanGraphs), Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer)
Guest: Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs, author of The Cooperstown Casebook)
Date: November 26, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Meg and Ben break down the Sonny Gray trade between the Cardinals and Red Sox, then pivot to react to Hal Steinbrenner’s recent comments lamenting the Yankees’ finances. The episode’s core is an in-depth Hall of Fame segment featuring Jay Jaffe, who joins to discuss the 2026 BBWAA ballot, the state of starting pitcher candidates, the role of new voters, and this winter's ERA committee picks. The conversation weaves through baseball’s changing statistical standards, Hall of Fame politics, and issues of franchise ownership and legacy.

Key Discussion Points

1. Trade Analysis: Sonny Gray to Red Sox

[00:37–12:46]

• Cardinals send Sonny Gray (plus money) to the Red Sox for prospects Richard Fitz ("Richard," a recurring pod joke) and Brandon Clark.
• Meg and Ben joke about Fitz’s name, but quickly move to substantive analysis on the trade’s logic for both teams.

Notable Insights:

• The trade is described as "straightforward" compared to recent perplexing deals (e.g., Orioles/Angels, Mets/Rangers).
• Sonny Gray, despite a seemingly unimpressive 4.28 ERA, has strong peripherals: high strikeout rate (10 K/9), good control, durability (24+ starts/year for 5 years; 180+ innings two of last 3 years).
  • Quote (Ben) [06:34]: “The ERA was not flashy...but under the hood—still pretty impressive stats.”
• Salary mechanics were key; Red Sox not taking on full financial burden, Cardinals not just shedding money but acquiring interesting arms.
• Sonny Gray is seen as mid-rotation or better, capable of starting playoff games, but not a true ace.
  • Quote (Meg) [09:21]: “He's an October starter, definitely.”
• For both teams, trade fits current trajectory: Red Sox bolster their rotation, Cardinals restock with prospects.

2. Hal Steinbrenner and Yankees Payroll Narratives

[12:55–34:17]

• Segment kicks off with Meg recapping Hal Steinbrenner’s public statements wishing for payroll restraint and contesting claims of Yankees' profitability.

Notable Discussion and Quotes:

• Question is raised: Do owners complain about money purely for PR, or do they believe their own hardship?
  • Quote (Meg) [13:56]: “Do you think...they sincerely believe it and that they are high on their own supply...or is it purely PR?”
• Ben explains that owners are both self-deluded and performative; creative accounting makes financial claims both “true and not true."
• Dissection of Forbes’ Yankees revenue/operating income numbers (reported $728M revenue, $57M loss in 2024), with context from Rob Mains (Baseball Prospectus) about what gets included/excluded in accounting.
• Appreciation: despite any "losses," franchise value soars (Yankees rose $650M in one year).
  • Quote (Ben) [21:46]: “The appreciation so dwarfs the figures that we're talking about...the Yankees franchise value increased from 7.55 billion to 8.2 billion.”
• Meg and Ben denounce Steinbrenner’s attempts to portray the Yankees as poor or hard-up—especially when citing things like stadium bond payments, which are offset by significant tax breaks.
  • Quote (Meg) [26:55]: “The 100 million payment the Yankees make on bonds...received tax exemptions of 122 million.”
  • Quote (Meg) [24:01]: “Thank you. That is the perfect way to describe it. Like, have some, have some self-respect. What would your father say?”
• Both hosts agree: If owning the Yankees is so tough, Steinbrenner could easily sell for billions. Fans see through these claims and aren’t sympathetic.

3. Hall of Fame Preview: With Jay Jaffe

[37:30–85:47]

3a. State of the 2026 Ballot

[38:49–43:46]

• Weakest ballot in years—no first-ballot locks, and only a handful of candidates meeting JAWS benchmarks.
• Cole Hamels is the standout among new names, but not a sure thing.
  • Quote (Jay) [39:20]: “You know, as the conversation steers towards adjusting our standards for starting pitchers, Cole Hamels actually looks pretty good...”

3b. Hamels vs. Felix Hernandez

[41:32–45:01]

• Hamels and Felix have very similar career numbers (ERA, wins), but differ in perception: Felix felt like a Hall of Famer at his peak; Hamels the more “accumulator.”
• In JAWS and sJAWS, Hamels’ longevity gives him a slightly stronger case than Felix, who had a steep drop-off after his peak.

3c. Hall Standards for Modern Starters (sJAWS discussion)

[45:09–47:36]

• It’s harder for modern pitchers (lower innings, earlier exits) to reach historical milestones; this compresses evaluations for the current Hall ballot.
• sJAWS (JAWS with ERA adjustments) narrows spread between contemporary candidates (Hamels, Pettitte, Buehrle, Felix, etc.).

3d. Position Player Candidates – Returners and First-time Impact

[47:36–57:09]

• Carlos Beltrán: Despite sign-stealing scandal, gaining momentum rapidly and is likely to be inducted soon.
  • Quote (Jay) [48:23]: “I'm very surprised that he is on the precipice of election here in just his fourth year...I thought that he would be treated like a PED test guy...”
• Andruw Jones: May join this year—his low hit totals and domestic violence history have been concerns, but his candidacy has become increasingly viable.
• Chase Utley: Limited by “short” career, but high peak value and “no baggage” make his case stronger; could pass 50% in voting soon.

3e. Excluded or Overlooked Candidates

[59:32–64:21]

• Discussion of post-PED-ballot era “casualties” (Lofton, Edmonds, Santana, etc.) and lack of second-chance mechanism beyond ERA committees.
• Historical quirk: There was briefly a “second chance” feature in the late 1970s/early ‘80s, but it’s now largely gone, leaving many deserving players without new avenues.

3f. Impact of New BBWAA Voters

[64:21–69:00]

• Up to 50 new voters (mainly from MLB.com) join the ballot—largest influx in decades.
• Expectation: Trend toward greater openness to newer statistical analysis and advanced metrics, possibly aiding modern “pitching accumulator” candidates.

3g. This Year’s ERA Committee Ballot & Critique

[69:00–76:27]

• ERA Committee process is opaque and frustrating: who gets on the ballot seems arbitrary, and it often rewards players amenable to Hall politics (Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly) over overlooked but qualified cases (Lou Whitaker, Dwight Evans).
• Emotional appeal for “pioneer” cases like Fernando Valenzuela (for his cultural impact) and Carlos Delgado (social conscience).

3h. PEDs, Character Clause, and Pete Rose

[76:27–85:08]

• Bonds and Clemens: No sign of changing attitudes; committee structure can be weaponized to exclude them, as with previous PED cases.
• Sheffield: May provide a “wedge” due to ambiguity about the nature of his PED use—he is not a lock for exclusion.
• Pete Rose: If Rose were elected, it would negate the Hall’s character clause, as his gambling is the “only capital crime” in baseball’s eyes.
  • Quote (Jay) [80:12]: “There is no way a voter owner could look at Barry Bonds and decide that he is subject to the character clause...But Pete Rose...there is no way Pete Rose has the character for the hall of Fame.”
• Panel speculates that the Hall’s back channels will ensure Rose is not inducted, given institutional priorities.

3i. Looking Forward

• Next year’s (2027) ballot will include Buster Posey; 2028 will bring Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Meg, on Hal Steinbrenner’s PR:
  “It’s unbecoming… what would your father say?” [24:01]
• Ben, on franchise value:
  “The idea that [Yankees] are not making money is ludicrous on its face… they have to show proof that they lost money… because it’s the Yankees.” [22:37]
• Jay, on modern HOF pitcher conundrum:
  “They just don’t have the volume… didn’t even make it to 3,000 innings... probably didn’t get to 200 wins... all of those goodies that… are...secondary markers of a Hall of Fame candidate.” [45:09]
• Jay, on the case for Fernando Valenzuela:
  “I think whose import as a pioneer for bringing Mexican and Mexican American and Latino fans to baseball is just massive… Fernando should be in the Hall on that basis.” [70:47]
• Jay, on the character clause and Pete Rose:
  “If Pete Rose is in, then I think you have to let Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and every other miscreant who has the numbers in because there's no character clause anymore.” [80:12]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening Banter & Sonny Gray Trade: 00:37–12:46
• Hal & Yankees Finances: 12:55–34:17
• Hall of Fame Preview with Jay Jaffe: 37:30–85:47
  • Weak ballot, pitcher discussion: 38:49–47:36
  • Position player candidacies (Beltrán, Jones, Utley): 47:36–57:09
  • Overlooked, one-and-done casualties: 59:32–64:21
  • New Voter Influx: 64:21–69:00
  • ERA committee/frustrations: 69:00–76:27
  • PEDs, Rose, character clause: 76:27–85:08

Tone & Style

Throughout, the hosts keep up a light, bantering tone—mixing statistical sophistication, humor, and pointed skepticism (especially toward ownership PR and Hall of Fame machinations). Meg and Ben’s interplay is friendly and wry (especially around running jokes), while Jay Jaffe brings encyclopedic knowledge and clear-eyed historical perspective.

For Further Reading / References

• FanGraphs JAWS leaderboard
• Baseball Prospectus—Rob Mains on Yankees accounting
• Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker
• Jay Jaffe’s Cooperstown Casebook

This summary captures the episode’s major themes and detailed content, offering a complete guide to the trade analysis, Hall of Fame candidacies, ownership commentary, and inside-baseball humor that define Effectively Wild’s signature style.