Effectively Wild Episode 2408: “Cease and D. Cease’d”

Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)
Date: December 2, 2025
Theme: Baseball statistical analysis, listener feedback, major offseason signings, and a data-driven exploration of pitcher stats and contracts, plus the annual MLB executive survey

Episode Overview

Episode 2408 dives into the heart of hot stove season, beginning with listener responses to last episode’s quirky extra-innings proposals, then tackling the market-shifting Dylan Cease signing by the Blue Jays, the impending Anthony Rendon-Angels separation, and Ryan Helsley’s move to the Orioles. The hosts also dig deep into the nuanced value of FIP and ERA as pitching stats with a dedicated stat blast, peppered with their trademark blend of rigorous pedantry and playful digression. The show closes with their traditional breakdown of the MLB executive survey, providing insight (and skepticism) about industry perspectives this offseason.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Listener Feedback: The Zombie Runner Alternative

• Recap: After last week’s discussion about alternative extra-innings rules (fastest-to-score), many listeners wrote in to point out potential improvements and flaws.
  • Most Notable Suggestions:
    • Use outs as the decider instead of plate appearances to prevent gaming the system ([03:13]).
    • Use at-bats instead of plate appearances, since walks don’t count as at-bats ([04:00]).
• Hosts’ Perspective:
  • These fixes address some manipulation concerns but could make the rule too pedantic and unappealing for casual fans.
  • “If we were to become known as the advocates of such a system and we were to offer as one of its selling points, that it would give you the chance to really engage with tiny differences, people wouldn't like us.” — Meg ([06:32])
• Pedantry in Baseball: Humor about the community’s (and their own) embrace of baseball minutiae and “veggie eating” — appreciating the finer points while knowing it isn’t for everyone ([05:03], [08:53]).

2. Dylan Cease Signs with the Blue Jays

• News Recap: Dylan Cease to Toronto for 7 years, $210 million (present value closer to $182M due to deferrals) ([15:14], [16:11]).
  • “The specifics were somewhat surprising. At least the contract terms. That’s a big number.” — Ben ([16:00])
  • “People’s reaction unfolded in two parts: Dylan Cease is a very good pitcher...and boy, that’s a lot of money.” — Meg ([16:20])
• On the Deal’s Market Impact:
  • The contract is larger and longer than most projections.
  • Deferrals enabled the Blue Jays to keep the AAV manageable for payroll/tax purposes ([16:11], [17:37]).
• Cease's Pitcher Profile:
  • Extremely durable; hasn't missed a start since 2019 ([22:05]).
  • High strikeout rate, but with “chasm” between his ERA and estimators due to hard contact and walks ([21:21]).
• On Team Motivations:
  • The Blue Jays possibly overpaid, but it sends a signal of aggressive, win-now intent after a near-championship run ([21:53], [29:08]).
• Market Factors:
  • Discussion around Toronto’s challenge in landing top free agents and whether their recent winning changes that ([25:09]).
  • Reference to “Friedman’s Law”: “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you’ll finish third on every free agent.” ([27:04])
• Notable Quote:
  • “They needed someone like this and they got him. So good for them.” – Ben ([30:59])
• Humor: Canadian currency and Brinks trucks; fun digression about Canadian money vs. American money ([31:10]–[33:40]).

3. Stat Blast: ERA Minus FIP and Predictive Value

• Question: Is FIP less useful for future prediction if there’s a very large ERA minus FIP gap?
• Key Findings:
  • Using Michael Mountain’s research, Ben details that FIP and other estimators are even better at predicting second-year ERA for pitchers with big ERA/FIP gaps ([34:42]–[40:28]).
• Memorable Quote:
  • “I was wrong to doubt FIP...you do tend to improve a lot the following year. It does come back.” — Ben ([44:56])
• Context: Positive news for the Blue Jays (Cease) and Red Sox (Gray), whose new aces both had poor ERAs but good underlying stats last year.
• Extra Insight: Defense matters—Cease struggled behind “godawful” Padres defense; Blue Jays’ stronger fielders could close the gap further ([45:05]).

4. Anthony Rendon-Angels Divorce

• Situation: Reports of the Angels and Rendon negotiating a retirement/deferral settlement to end his disastrous tenure ([47:21]).
• Hosts' Views:
  • Rendon's perspective on baseball as “not everything” can be healthy but didn’t mesh with fan expectations or the realities of injuries ([47:42]–[52:40]).
• Humor & Analysis:
  • Potential for “Rendon Day,” annual reminder of deferred payments, much like “Bonilla Day” ([49:57]).
  • Sympathy for injuries derailing what was, at the time, a totally reasonable contract for a great player ([52:00], [53:40]).
• Nostalgia/Loss:
  • Discussion of how injuries can erase a player’s legacy with a team—cf. Pujols and Griffey’s late-career tenures being misunderstood ([57:28]–[60:23]).
• Quote:
  • “I do feel bad for...I mean, bad, you know, they got enormous amounts of money, but feel worse for Strasburg because it sounds like that has impacted his quality of life.” — Ben ([52:10])

5. Ryan Helsley to the Orioles

• Context: Orioles sign Helsley for two years and $28 million, hoping to fill the void left by Felix Bautista’s injury ([65:13], [68:28]).
• Helsley's Profile:
  • Recent struggles (especially with the Mets), but prior All-Star closer with elite velocity.
  • Challenges include predictability (only two primary pitches, patterns easy to anticipate; [71:28]).
• Pitch Arsenal Metrics:
  • Ben introduces BP’s “pitch type probability” and “surprise factor,” finding Helsley among the most predictable relievers in baseball ([71:28]–[74:00]).
• Projected Role: Short-term “prove it” deal—successful rebound could lead to another free agency opportunity at 32.
• Conclusion: The deal makes sense for both sides, especially for a bullpen-lean Orioles ([68:28], [70:58]).

6. 2025 MLB Executive Survey (Jesse Rogers/ESPN)

• Overview: Ben quizzes Meg on MLB executive poll results about key offseason questions.
  • Will Kyle Tucker get $400M? Most say no, but it’ll be close; Dodgers and Yankees seen as top suitors ([77:14]–[78:25]).
  • Where do top free agent starters sign? Blue Jays correctly pegged as Cease’s likely destination ([78:25]–[82:03]).
  • Top trade candidates? Joe Ryan, Freddy Peralta, Cattél Marte ([88:58]).
  • Other questions: Which teams will make “noise” (Pirates, Royals, Marlins); what will happen with Tarek Skubal (likely nothing); and which free agent deal will “raise eyebrows” (Bichette, Schwarber, Real Muto among them) ([87:30]).
  • Hosts’ Take:
    • Amused skepticism over the utility of executive predictions, roots of the survey, and questions’ focus ([83:44], [92:34]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Rule Pedantry:
  • “We have a very high pain tolerance when it comes to pedantry. We invite it. Even if we say we hate it, we’ll still get the emails. We’ve made our bed and now we must sleep in it!” — Meg ([05:03])
• On Deferrals & Contract Value:
  • “I’m open to a conversation about how we should account for deferrals and the reality of deferrals because obviously it is a meaningful mechanism for teams.” – Meg ([17:37])
• Canadian Currency Banter:
  • “The funny thing about backing up a Brinks truck in this instance is sort of in keeping with the Vladi of it all, saying, hey, we're serious...” – Meg ([31:21])
  • “I wonder if the Brinks truck in Canada needs to have a slightly larger storage compartment because you just need more currency in there for the same amount.” – Ben ([31:57])
• On Pitcher Stats:
  • “I should feel any misgivings, any qualms about actually buying into someone who had a big ERA minus FIB gap. It appears that the FIP is still just as telling in that case, which is good news for the Red Sox and Sonny Gray and good news for Dylan Cease and Toronto.” – Ben ([44:56])
• On Anthony Rendon’s Legacy:
  • “On the one hand, we've joked about him being the quiet quitting king. On the other, I do think [he] legitimately suffered injuries that made participation untenable… he was a very good player. It made sense for him to get that contract when he got it.” – Meg ([51:17])
• On the Executive Survey:
  • “If you agree to participate in this exercise, then, you know, you might as well [answer every question].” – Ben ([84:49])
• Statistical Pedantry Philosophy:
  • “How can you not be pedantic about baseball? We can’t not. And clearly our listeners can’t not either. And veggies are delicious. Veggies are dessert for me.” — Ben ([08:53])

Important Segment Timestamps

• Listener feedback on extra inning proposals: [00:42]–[10:47]
• Dylan Cease Blue Jays signing, market impact: [15:14]–[33:54]
• Canadian currency/Brinks Trucks humor: [31:10]–[33:54]
• Stat Blast: FIP vs ERA in predicting future performance: [34:09]–[46:15]
• Anthony Rendon/Angels divorce, legacy/loss: [47:21]–[61:35]
• Ryan Helsley signs with Orioles: [65:13]–[77:13]
• Exec survey breakdown and reactions: [77:13]–[93:31]

Final Tone & Style Notes

This was classic Effectively Wild: a smart, exploratory, and lightly irreverent episode balancing old school baseball banter, cutting-edge statistical analysis, and community engagement. Deep data dives were leavened with humor (Canadian money, colonoscopy tangent) and critical thinking—for fans who love baseball’s stats, structures, and idiosyncratic traditions.

For further details and in-jokes (Brinks trucks, “Rendon Day,” colonoscopies), or the full Thanksgiving-infused spirit of Effectively Wild, refer to the full transcript.