Effectively Wild Episode 2409: Hindsight is 2025 - Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

Transcript

A (0:02)

How are you? I'm okay. We got so much to do today. Breaking balls and Flakin Snells and those stats won't blast themselves. Effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effectively wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2409 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs, presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer, joined by Meg Riley of fangraphs. Hello, Meg.

B (0:46)

Hello.

A (0:47)

Another day, another episode, another massive reliever signing by a free agent. I refer, of course, to the Colorado Rockies signing John Brebia to a minor league deal.

B (1:01)

Oh, you got me, Ben. You tricked me. I was like, are we really describing Devin Williams contract is massive.

A (1:07)

Yeah, well, by free agent reliever standards, certainly much more massive than John Brebia's deal, presumably with the Rockies. Haven't heard the terms on that one, but I'm going to guess that it's a little lower than Devin Williams's deal with the Mets, but happy to see him catch on. As I've always said, Paul Dipodesta can do no wrong. Really just a perfect choice to be Pobo. Not just because we can call him Paul de Pobo, but because he has excellent taste in relievers to give minor league deals. So congrats to Brebia, though, I guess qualified congrats because it seems like a minor league deal with the Rockies is sort of the last step before. I don't know what, calling it a career, heading back to indie ball, maybe becoming a podcaster. We can hope. But yeah, that seems like kind of the last stop on the hierarchy of Major League Baseball. I mean, it's. It's not even Major league baseball. It's a minor league deal with a team that is coming off a historically terrible season. But you know what? We Brea fans will take it. We're just happy to see him get a job somewhere playing baseball.

B (2:26)

Yeah, I wasn't gonna try to yuck your yum, but it's like he can't even break into a major league deal with the Rockets.

A (2:35)

Yeah.

B (2:35)

Yeah. I know that it would be wrong to attribute much of anything to this. In terms of what it says. What does it say about Depodesta? The answer to that is probably not very much at all. When you're signing guys to minor league deals, relievers to minor league deals, I feel comfortable asserting that that is the level of decision making operating beneath the gm. And I don't mean to say it's. It doesn't merit his notice, just that, you know, it's not like you're having to bust out the big bucks for it, but, you know, we love John Brebia. I mean, like, you really love John Brebia? Yeah, like a lot.

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2409: “Hindsight is 2025”

Main Theme This episode, hosted by Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer) and Meg Rowley (FanGraphs), delivers their signature blend of baseball analysis, transactions banter, mailbag Q&A, and meta-baseball statistical discussion. The show spotlights the latest free agent reliever deals, the persistent FIP versus ERA debate, projection systems, team performance retrospectives, and a wide-ranging, characteristically geeky and humorous look at baseball’s terminology and quirks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reliever Market, John Brebia & the State of Rockies Baseball

[00:47–03:20] Ben opens by jokingly hyping the Rockies’ minor league deal with John Brebia as the latest “massive” reliever signing, contrasting it with Devin Williams's contract. This segues into musings about Brebia’s career arc, the unglamorous realities of Rockies minor league deals, and playful personal investment in certain obscure relievers.
- “Congrats to Brebia, though, I guess qualified congrats because it seems like a minor league deal with the Rockies is sort of the last step before... calling it a career, heading back to indie ball, maybe becoming a podcaster.” — Ben [01:40]
[03:37–05:29] Conversation shifts to Nikki Lopez, also on a Rockies minor league deal, with Meg humorously stating she has “not a single human thought about Nikki Lopez.”
- “There’s only so much base up there. And I have to remember details of, I don’t know, Mike Zunino’s career, probably.” — Meg [04:07]

2. The Devin Williams to Mets Signing and the Evolving Reliever Market

[05:34–14:29] In-depth analysis of the Mets’ $51M/3-year signing of closer Devin Williams:
- Extensive discussion of contract structure, particularly the impact of salary deferrals and their effect on net present value (“It’s like $2 plus million per year. So instead of $17 million per year, it’s something like $14.8M… for competitive balance tax purposes, if the Mets are currently caring about that.” — Ben [14:20])
- Recurring theme of “ERA vs. FIP gap” as a measure of underlying pitcher performance and free agent value.
  - “He makes the ERA minus FIP gaps that we talked about with the last few guys look teeny tiny. Cause his [gap] was more than two full runs…” — Ben [13:10]
- Meg’s take: The deal is a win for the Mets and not a regrettable underpay for Williams; she praises the flexibility it offers the Mets for possible Edwin Díaz reunion and relief core upgrades.
  - “I just think that he’s going to be pretty good and he might be really good. And if you’re getting a really good back-end reliever...that’s the ninth inning guy for $14 million a year, my goodness.” — Meg [10:40]
[14:30–16:17] “Can’t hack it in New York” trope dissected—Ben notes the narrative is common for Yankees (with their facial hair rules and perceived pressure), less so for the Mets.
- “It would be funny if there were a ‘can’t make it in New York’ guy who just went across town [to the Mets] and was fine. The spotlight’s a little less bright or something.” — Ben [16:09]

3. The FIP vs. ERA Debate, Projections, and Evolution of Player Evaluation

[19:25–25:07] The hosts vent about relentless public debate over FIP-ERA gaps, joking about the minutiae taking over fans’ lives, and field a mailbag question asking if the superiority of FIP for prediction is actually “useful.”
- “When both ERA and FIP are about a run off on average in their predictions, does it matter that FIP is slightly better?” — Reader Tom [20:15]
- Both agree front offices care about even “small” improvements, and that modern projections (Steamer, ZiPS) now synthesize many inputs, raising the level of public discussion.
  - “We don’t actually really need to limit ourselves to a single data point… Projections know repertoire, age, ballpark… now you can just look at projections all the time.” — Ben [21:24]

4. Yankees’ Bond Sweetheart Deal — MLB Team Finances Unpacked

[26:43–30:01] Follow-up discussion on Hal Steinbrenner’s complaints about Yankees stadium bond payments, debunked with new information showing the Yankees are actually hugely benefiting financially from municipal bonds.
- “If anything, the last time we talked about this, we understated what a sweet deal the Yankees are getting… The deeper you drill down, it becomes a better and better deal the closer you look.” — Ben [29:22]

5. Baseball Miscellany: Canadian Money & Tactile Design

[30:04–31:31] Light segment on how Canadian bills use color and Braille, making denominations more universally accessible.
- “So even if you cannot distinguish the different colors of the bill, they’ve got Braille…” — Ben [30:44]
- “Good job, Canada.” — Meg [31:30]

6. 2025 Team Success Review — Did Teams Meet Preseason Goals?

[31:31–55:01] A lengthy, entertaining review of each MLB team’s 2025 preseason “success” criterion, as compiled by Raymond Chen, including whether teams met their guest-set standards and a discussion of “victory conditions.” Some highlights:
- Dodgers (establish a dynasty): Success — “They did that.” [33:45]
- Yankees (win World Series): Fail [33:48]
- Blue Jays (make playoffs + win a game): “Stirring success… They were the second most successful team in baseball and relative to expectations, probably the most.” — Ben [40:47]
- White Sox (avoid embarrassing records, etc.): “Less terribly done than in the prior year.” — Ben [54:59]
- Meg and Ben banter through “barely” calls (Tigers: “bare minimum… to be a success” [42:16]), “fail miserably” (Twins [39:07]), and “smashing success” (Mariners [36:56]).
- Calls for “strict constructionism” abound and running jokes about “shifty” grant brisbee predictions.
  - “He’s so tricksy, that Grant.” — Meg [44:13]

7. Mailbag: Baseball Language, Projections, and Cultural Reference Deep Dives

Corners and Edges ([55:01–58:03])
- Listeners debate whether “corner” in pitching always means the literal corner of the strike zone or includes edges; consensus is that it commonly refers to both edge and corner of the plate.
  - “In my baseball idiolect, corner means edge of the plate…inside corner and outside corner.” — Listener Ben via email [55:15]
Oppo Taco & Opposite Field ([58:13–62:41])
- Why is it called “opposite field”? Hosts read from the Dixon Baseball Dictionary: it’s simply the field opposite where the batter stands — not a cricket borrowing, but an early 20th-century term.
  - “It’s called opposite because it is the opposite of the direction in which a batter would naturally pull the ball.” — Ben, citing Dixon [59:43]
Whiff ([65:21–67:26])
- Has the meaning of “whiff” changed? Discussion of whether it refers to any strikeout or only swinging strikeouts; conclusion: both have always existed, but “whiff” has shifted to almost always mean a swing-and-miss pitch in modern usage.
  - “It might even start to sound weird if you said that you whiffed someone on a looking strikeout.” — Ben [67:36]

8. Meta-Baseball Topics: Offseason Date Spans, Umpire Throws, and More

Offseason Span Syntax ([69:10–73:09])
- Meg and Ben discuss the best way to notate multi-year offseasons (“2003–04” vs. “2003–2010”), ultimately favoring clarity and tradition.
  - “Mostly I’m just happy that our league year occurs over a single year. What a joy.” — Meg [69:50]
Do Umpires Practice Throwing? ([73:09–78:11])
- Do umps actually practice those throws to the pitcher? Hosts speculate that they probably do and discuss reasonable accommodation if a future ump couldn’t throw due to disability.
  - “You would want to break in the arm instead of breaking the arm.” — Ben [74:48]

9. Guardians "Sustained Success" Without a Title — Is It Enough?

[78:11–88:49] A Guardians fan asks whether regular season wins really matter if a franchise never wins a World Series, as is now the case for Cleveland (sixth-most wins since 2000, no titles).
- Both Meg and Ben counsel appreciating regular season excellence — “a tremendous joy to have your team feel like they’re in it” [82:12] — but understand the frustration of never making a “big swing.” They distinguish between smart low-budget orgs (e.g. Rays, Guardians) and simply cheap, hapless ones, noting it’s valid to want more.

10. Automated Balls and Strikes System: Challenges, Strategies, and Clubhouse Dynamics

[88:49–100:15] A pair of mailbag questions examine the ABSS “challenge” system (catchers framing vs. hitters challenging), the possible psychological strain, and how it changes on-field dynamics.
- Meg: “You have to receive the baseball… everything’s happening out of their control [for hitters]. That’s what the act of hitting is.” [89:55]
- Both expect catchers to control and optimize challenges, and embrace the added strategic and analytical complexity.
  - “I think it’s going to be fun. And I’m kind of happy that catcher value will be preserved if not enhanced…” — Ben [98:22]
  - “We might be in a whole new frontier… I heard a guy yell, ‘Way to go, blue.’ Never in my entire life” — Meg [100:15], on the crowd possibly applauding umps for correct calls under the new system.

Brief Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“Of all the people that we could have a strange fixation about as a program, Brebia — not that bad, in fact wonderful.” — Meg [03:23]
“You don’t want your ERA to start with nine, Ben.” — Meg [08:21]
“We shouldn’t have to talk about FIP this much in November.” — Meg [19:41]
“We are so lucky...I give thanks for [the league year being Jan-Dec] constantly.” — Ben [69:50]
“Less terribly done than in the prior year.” — Ben [54:59], summarizing White Sox “success.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

Reliever chatter / John Brebia & Rockies – [00:47–05:29]
Devin Williams signing analysis – [05:34–14:29]
“Can’t hack it in New York” narrative – [14:30–17:17]
FIP-ERA gap and projections discussion – [19:25–25:07]
Yankees stadium bond financial deep-dive – [26:43–30:01]
Canadian currency design – [30:04–31:31]
Team success goals review (full loop) – [31:31–55:01]
Mailbag (corners/edges language, whiff, oppo taco, etc.) – [55:01–67:26]
Offseason span syntax, umps throwing – [69:10–78:11]
Guardians “good without a title” debate – [78:11–88:49]
ABS system, challenges, clubhouse dynamics – [88:49–100:15]

Episode Takeaway

This episode is a classic “Effectively Wild” cornucopia: deep dives into player performance metrics (with customary FIP-vs-ERA ruminations), fun with baseball’s oddest corners and terms, a tongue-in-cheek but sincere review of what makes an MLB season “successful,” and anticipation for how automated strike zones will further complicate and vivify the game’s drama—both on the field and among the stats-minded faithful. Always, it’s delivered in Ben & Meg’s engaged, nerdy, and humor-laced voice—a perfect companion for baseball obsessives and casual fans alike.