Effectively Wild Episode 2418: The Challenge System Challenge

Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Ben Lindbergh
Guests: Craig Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Joe Sheehan (Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter)
Main Theme: An exploration and debate of MLB’s forthcoming Automated Ball/Strike (ABS) “Challenge System,” along with lively discussion of recent MLB transactions and the shifting landscape of contemporary baseball analysis.

Episode Overview

Episode 2418 features a spirited roundtable about the upcoming implementation of the challenge-based pitch-calling system in MLB, with a range of viewpoints on whether half-measures are progress or problematic. Before diving deep into this tech-driven rules debate, the panel also breaks down several key offseason transactions and reflects on broader baseball trends — with their characteristic humor, depth, and generosity toward each other's work.

Main Discussion Points & Key Segments

1. Introductions, Context, and Epistemology of Debate

• [00:13] Ben opens the show solo (Meg Rowley is off), bringing on guests with “outsider” but expert perspectives: Craig Goldstein (BP) and Joe Sheehan (noted substack newsletter writer and BP co-founder).
• [00:45–03:21] Ben recaps the origin of the challenge system debate: Both guests independently viewed the challenge zone as a “half-measure” compromise, but Joe sees that as a bug, Craig as a potential feature.
  • Quote, Ben [02:51]: “You saw the challenge system exactly the same way, described it in the same terms, until you came to diametrically opposite conclusions about whether you liked it or not.”

2. Quick News & Banter

• [03:43] Craig is congratulated (tongue-in-cheek) on the “retirement” of nemesis Joe Kelly, now a podcaster himself.
• [05:50] Tribute to the 50th anniversary of the Seitz decision (MLB free agency).
• [06:07] Transition into reviewing hot stove developments.

3. Hot Stove Transaction Roundup

(Extended, in-depth breakdowns follow. Not every signing is timestamped in the transcript, so these are rough cues.)

a) Munetaka Murakami Signs with White Sox

• [07:51–25:32]
  • Consensus: The contract (2 years, $34M) is a big bargain given Murakami’s past NPB hitting prowess, but his swing-and-miss issues raise big MLB translation questions.
  • Joe [07:51]: “He has egregious flaws… maybe not even pay off at 2 and 34… but why not take the chance?”
  • Craig [08:50]: “I’m very surprised at the dollar amount and the years, but it makes sense… No one could really allay those concerns [about first base defense, swing-and-miss].”
  • Ben [10:55]: “I’m kind of a believer… even as a league-average hitter, that would be a bargain compared to other recent deals…”
  • Joe [14:48]: “I like the signing, don’t love the player.”
  • Projection systems discussed: Steamer (115 wRC+), Oopsie (123), ZiPS (126), BP’s PECOTA (129 DRC+).
  • Interesting Takeaway: Even with risk, the consensus is the White Sox inject watchability and upside; the transaction also highlights player agency (short-term contract, re-entering free agency at 27).

b) NPB/KBO Integration and Globalization Worries

• [24:54] Growing trend for Japanese/Korean stars to come straight to MLB or even bypass their home leagues entirely; concern for sustaining robust, independent baseball cultures abroad.

c) Padres’ Moves – Michael King and Sung Moon Song

• [28:03–37:06]
  • King’s deal is a “one-year deal in disguise” (opt-outs).
  • Padres’ talent drain and ambiguous direction post-Seidler; AJ Preller’s willingness to keep “pushing” admired, even amid resource squeeze.
  • Craig [35:35]: “Hard to sell when you have tent poles like Machado and Tatis… but hard to really pivot.”
  • Joe [37:06]: “Appreciation for Preller: At least he hasn’t punted for five years.”

d) Orioles-Rays, Three-Team Trades, and Rotation Upgrades

• [38:38–47:00]
  • Baltimore gets Shane Baz (but he’s more an innings-eater than an ace); there’s impatience for a true top-of-rotation move.
  • Joe [41:54]: “We have to update our priors… Baz is 27… one full season in the majors… just a number three if he stays healthy.”
  • Craig [41:35]: “Too many similarities to the pitcher they dealt away (Grayson Rodriguez); floor is raised, but at significant cost.”
  • Recap of Rays/Astros/Pirates three-way trade, focus on Brandon Lowe to the Pirates ([48:20]): “Brandon Lowe would have been the second-best hitter on [PIT’s] team last year.” (Joe)

e) Wilson Contreras to Red Sox

• [53:13–58:23]
  • Seen as a high-value move: solves Boston’s 1B/DH need and adds a rare righty bat.
  • Joe [55:06]: “Contreras is just underrated… this is a really good pickup.”
  • Consensus Boston’s quietly improved; now legitimately in AL East race.

f) Miscellany: Yankees’ Quiet Offseason, Strom Trade, Mets Roster Turnover

• [60:05–66:45]
  • Yankees, despite anxious fans, may not have urgent fits for splashy FA signings right now.
  • Matt Strahm to Royals [62:18]; reliever for reliever trades are “modern baseball” as teams hunt for skills/pitches, not “actual” value.
  • Mets: Losing Jeff McNeil (“baseball zygote” returns as a phrase for undeveloped lotto-ticket prospects acquired in such deals); David Stearns is remaking the roster.

4. Cell Phone Scandal & MLB’s “Policing” Paradox

• [66:45–71:12]
  • Controversy over Emanuel Clase and phones in the bullpen/dugout.
  • MLB can’t – or won’t – fully enforce phone bans. “Feels like pretending to treat a symptom.” (Craig)
  • Joe [69:04]: “You’re not going to keep phones out of the clubhouse ten hours a day.”

5. The Main Event: The Challenge System Challenge

A deep, philosophical, and policy-driven debate about the value and shortcomings of MLB’s incoming “ABS challenge” system.

Key Stakes:

• How much “automation” is enough, or too much?
• Should baseball aim for perfect justice (“get every call right”), or is traditional semi-randomness actually worth preserving?
• Where should the human element reside: players, umpires, or neither?
• Is the challenge system actually a compromise, or a cowardly half-measure?

a) Opening Statements & Philosophical Baselines

• [72:29]
  • Joe: “Pitchers should be called based on where they cross the plate… [Current system] is unfair to the hitter who cannot possibly have that information… Umpires are calling catches; ABS would call pitches.”
  • Craig: “I largely agree… but I’m more unsure about wanting the ultimate consequences of a fully automated zone at all times.”

b) Rubber Band Zone, Fairness, Offense, and Game Flow

• [74:08–78:55]

  • Craig and Ben both note that the “expanding and contracting” strike zone (umpires ‘helping’ batters or pitchers per count) has subtle, real effects on game tension and offense.

  • Craig [74:57]: “It used to be I wanted every call to be correct, now I want everyone to agree and move on quickly.”

  • Ben [78:55]: “There’s a subconscious ‘helping hand.’ If you went to full ABS, you’d have fewer comebacks in the count.”

  • Joe: “If you call a rulebook-width plate, you’d put offense back in the game… right now, pitchers can just value stuff above all else and exploit this hole in the game. If they had to throw it over the plate more, you get a more entertaining game.”

c) Walk Wave, Pitcher Adaptation, and Unintended Consequences

• [82:28–84:13]
  • There would likely be an initial surge in walks; pitchers would (over time) adapt, maybe with even more “stuff.”
  • Craig: “If you force pitchers back in the zone, you incentivize the kind of stuff that can survive — not necessarily better command.”
  • Real-world implementation is not strictly the “rulebook zone,” and past minor league experiments revealed that the ideal isn’t always easy to define in code.

d) Randomness, “Correctness,” and Aesthetics

• [94:22–98:08]
  • Craig muses about whether randomness is secretly part of the fun: “I think… it’s good that we don’t know for certain whether some of those balls on the edge are balls or strikes. That randomness — that uncertainty — is something fans do seek in sports.”
  • Ben worries that intentionally coding randomness would drive people crazy; they’d rather have a system that is trying to be right, with some margin of error.

e) Replay, Challenges, and the “Skill” of Challenging

• [104:57–108:34]
  • Ben: “There’s potential metagame interest in challenge decisions — but is that a meaningful or artificial skill?”
  • Joe: “Getting players/managers involved in officiating the game is bad… Challenge systems everywhere are bad… You end up strategizing your leverage, not fixing the call itself.”
  • Craig: “If you can fix the really egregious ones without too much delay, maybe that’s enough. I’m not convinced missing a tight call in the third is so terrible.”

f) Consensus, Compromises, & Evolving Positions

• [116:19–125:04]
  • All agree: the ABS challenge system is a half-measure — but maybe that’s the right starting point.
  • Joe expects the public will push all the way to full ABS; Ben sees the challenge system as “a stop along the way.”
  • Ben [116:21]: “There’s something to that — some people seem to enjoy [the suspense of the challenge].”
  • Craig [121:52]: “If it works that well… it might just set point to ‘do it all the time then.’”
  • Joe [118:41]: “MLB needs a lab league… try all kinds of nonsense before treating MLB as a beta test.”
  • All agree the metagame of challenge “hoarding” and metrical analysis will emerge, but no panelist is actually excited about that, as opposed to just getting calls right.

Notable Quotes / Memorable Moments

• “I’m picturing Portia de Rossi and David Cross… maybe it could work for us!” — Joe Sheehan, [03:21]
• “It’s a fetish.” — Joe, on Ben’s affection for catcher framing, [90:23]
• “Challenge systems are bad... in all sports... You end up strategizing leverage, not fixing the call.” — Joe, [106:16]
• “Is it better than the current baseline?... In this case it is.” — Craig, [102:33]
• “Our minds are somewhat open… and hopefully it’s illuminating for listeners whether they agree or not.” — Ben, [125:04]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:21] – Challenge System Debate Introduced
• [07:51] – Murakami Signing Deep Dive
• [28:03] – Padres' King/Song Signings
• [38:38] – Orioles/Rays/Pirates Trades
• [53:13] – Wilson Contreras to Red Sox Analysis
• [66:45] – Mets Turnover / Cell Phone Scandal / Policing
• [72:29] – Challenge System Deep Dive Begins
  • Joe’s Opening Anti-Framing: [72:29]
  • Craig’s Opening “Half-Measure” Philosophy: [74:08]
  • Discussion of Aesthetics/Randomness: [94:22]
  • Replay & Challenge System Critiques: [106:16]
  • Consensus & Closing: [116:19–125:04]

Final Thoughts—Product Plugs, Mutual Endorsement, the State of Independent Baseball Writing

• [125:43–130:59] Generous cross-promotion of Baseball Prospectus and the Joe Sheehan Newsletter.
• [128:06] Joe: “Whether it’s BP, me or Fangraphs… subscribe to somebody. Everybody’s doing great work. We all work in the toy department, but support somebody.”

Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode represents Effectively Wild at its best: smart, patient, deeply informed baseball talk that never condescends but always explores. The panel takes listeners through the nuances of new MLB tech, the ways changes ripple through the game’s strategy, culture, and watchability, and why subtleties like randomness and human error are — maybe — still part of baseball’s strange magic. The hosts disagree but model true debate, and reflect live on their own minds changing. Whether you care about cutting-edge sabermetrics or just want to know who’s on first in the AL East, this one is both a holiday treat and a solid primer for the 2026 baseball landscape.

For Further Listening/Reading

• For those interested in the technical details of projected translations for NPB/KBO hitters, look up articles by Jordan Rosenblum and the Oopsie projection system at FanGraphs.
• Baseball Prospectus and The Joe Sheehan Newsletter for more on what goes into modern front office and statistical analysis.
• Effectively Wild’s forthcoming Year in Review episodes for deeper dives into each team’s 2025 stories.

In sum:

• Fireside, good-natured, and sharp — this episode takes one of MLB’s major forthcoming changes and breaks it down from every angle (statistical, aesthetic, practical, and philosophical), while offering fly-on-the-wall access to the judgment and humor of some of contemporary baseball’s best analysts.