Effectively Wild Episode 2422: The 2026 Minor League Free Agent Draft

Date: January 3, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs), Ben Clemens (FanGraphs)
Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

Episode Overview

This episode marks the 13th annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Draft—the trio’s quirky, celebratory, and delightfully deep-dive tradition for baseballheads. Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Ben Clemens gather (along with the audience's energy for the new baseball year) to select their teams of 10 minor league free agents each. Their goal: to predict which players will accumulate the most combined MLB plate appearances and batters faced in the 2026 season—a contest more about humor, humility, and remembering some guys than scouting genius.

Before diving into the draft, the hosts also dissect the first noteworthy MLB signing of the new year: Tatsuya Imai to the Astros. The episode blends statistical speculation, self-effacing banter, nostalgia for past picks, and impeccable roster trivia.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Last Year / This Year” Baseball Semantics (00:45–03:13)

• Lighthearted banter kicks off the episode about whether, on January 1, to refer to the most recently completed baseball season as “last year.”
• Quote: “My most constant edit is… confusion between which year you mean when you say ‘last year’. But now, everything’s gravy.” – Meg (01:54)

2. Breaking Down Tatsuya Imai’s MLB Deal (03:27–18:21)

Contract Analysis

• Astros sign Japanese RHP Tatsuya Imai to a 3-year, $54 million MLB deal, with opt-outs after each of the first two years.
• The contract comes in under nearly all public projections (FanGraphs crowdsource: $73 million; industry sources: $100–$150 million).

Why So Modest?

• Ben Clemens: Reflected on why projections overshot these deals, echoing past misreads on Murakami. “Maybe we got too anchored to the idea that the top NPB players each offseason get gigantic deals—it depends on the class.” (09:18)

• Ben Lindbergh: Noted similarities to Kikuchi’s recent Astros stint and mused the Astros’ familiarity with international signings (14:20).

• Notable Quote:
  “Have you reflected at all on your own predictions for Murakami, whom you had at $154 million, and you missed slightly, but who didn’t really? So what’s happening here?” – Ben Lindbergh to Ben Clemens (05:31)

Broader Implications

• The hosts agree this potentially signals teams aren't simply "paying for NPB performance" anymore.
• Imai and Murakami’s willingness to choose shorter, higher-AAV deals with opt-outs points to a strategic bet on their own MLB success (08:25).
• They compare Imai’s “probable MLB mid-rotation starter” projections to what the league pays for a league-average arm.
• Meg quips: “I’d particularly be happy if I’m Houston, because 150 innings of reasonable baseball... That sounds good. They’ve been thin on the ground in Houston.” (16:22)

3. 13th Annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Draft (18:16–81:55)

The Rules Refresher (18:22–23:04)

• Each host drafts 10 minor league free agents, tracking their cumulative 2026 MLB playing time.
• Eligibility = on the official Baseball America MLB minor league free agent list.
• Scoring combines plate appearances and total batters faced. Purely for bragging rights—“which is pretty important” (A, 18:24).
• Most successful picks in history: Dylan Moore, John Berti, Scott Barlow, Craig Stammen (now a MLB manager).

2026 Minor League Free Agent Class: “Light and Weak”

• All three hosts agree: This year’s class is unusually thin, with fewer high-upside or overlooked veterans (23:04–25:04).
• Quote: “This seems bad. I don’t think many of these players are that good. Whereas in many previous years I’ve been spoiled for choice.” – Ben Clemens (24:42)

Draft Strategy Banter & Stats

• Ben Clemens: Historically favors “ceiling”—more high-upside, higher-risk picks, leading to the lowest hit rate (50%).
• Meg: The highest “hit” rate (65%)—more steady, “safe” picks.
• Ben Lindbergh: Winner last year with a “miracle” 10-for-10 hit rate; this time admits he may be “courting disaster” with lots of unsigned picks.

Draft Highlights: Key Selections and Rationale

Selections with notable player notes and/or memorable moments:

First Round:

• Yoel Piamps (Braves, RHP RP) – Clemens: “He’s a good major league player. Signed a $2.25M deal. That’s not a contract you sign to play in the minors.” (28:44)
• Ty Adcock (Padres, RHP RP) – Meg: “I know, embarrassment of riches, but this group is a little more unsettled… first arm to come up if not break camp.” (31:31)
• Dyson Acosta (Padres, RHP RP) – Lindbergh: “Competing for time with Ty Adcock. Good stuff, struck out 72 in 52 innings.” (32:04)

Later Notables:

• Chas McCormick (unsigned, OF) – Lindbergh: “Still plays center, was a big league regular. Has to get a shot somewhere, right?” (38:55)
• Kevin Newman (Royals, INF) – Lindbergh: “Not exciting… but solid, dependable playing time guy. Royals do their Royals thing—you can’t hit, but we need a utility guy.” (45:40)
• Sean Boyle (Padres, RHP S/RP) – Clemens: “Basically a regular starter in AAA… Padres always need innings.” (47:30)
• Matt Mervis (Nationals, 1B) – Meg: “He got some run with the Marlins, now with the Nats… they don’t really have an actual first baseman.” (75:30)
• Janser Lara (no contract, RHP) – Meg: “He’s got a crazy fastball… came back to affiliated ball last year, cool trajectory. I’m taking a flyer.” (80:37)
• John Brebbia (Rockies, RHP RP) – Clemens: “Actually think at his peak he was a good, difference-making reliever. Delightful, easy to root for.” (62:42)

Frequent rationale: signings by thin teams (Marlins, Rockies, Nationals), major league contracts (for safety), catchers (“someone’s gotta catch for [bad team]!”), utility men who always seem to play, and relievers who have flashed stuff or simply have a “live arm.”

Draft Banter & Notable Moments

• Roster-building metaphors abound (Meg: “Do you want to be in the Garret Stubbs booby milk business? No, you’re not...” 50:23).

• Ongoing jokes about the unpronounceable or forgettable names.
  “Braxton Fulford really sounds like: Make up a name on the spot and don’t think.” — Ben Lindbergh (71:12)

• “Sometimes when we’re explaining who these picks are, it’s like in Can’t Hardly Wait where they’re looking for Preston... ‘Well, he’s kind of tall... his hair is kind of brown...’” – Lindbergh (60:06)

• Multiple host soul-searching as picks near the bottom of the board: “Oh god, it’s me again. How many of these do we do?” – Meg (58:36)

• Brief panic after Ben Lindbergh selects Akil Baddoo, who may be a minor league FA, but isn’t on the official list. (68:02–68:50)

• All agree: the Marlins, Rockies, and Nationals are the best organizations to target for playing time due to lack of depth.

Closing Out the Draft (81:54–92:00)

• Each host shares their “close but not quite” picks—more bench infielders, quad-A outfielders, and fungible middle relievers.
• The random “control group” team, selected by Patreon supporter Thomas, features Jonah Bride (Rangers) and a cast of deeply marginal players—the true spirit of the exercise.
• “It would be very funny if, after going 10-for-10 last year, none of your guys get big-league time this year.” – Meg, to Ben L. (78:22)

4. Stat Blast and Listener Follow-Ups (92:00–105:41)

• Stathead Query Fun
  • Bailey Ober’s “dial 7-7-7-7” line (7 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 7 K) — done only four times in MLB history (93:38).
• Obscure Nickname Etymologies
  • “Boob and Gink” traced to old comic strips (Gink and Boob, Mutt and Jeff).
• Listener Questions & Corrections
  • Percentage of a season’s losses to a single opponent (1928 A’s, 29% to Yankees).
  • Details on the Royals’ first 30 HR / 100 RBI teammate pairings.
• Random baseball brick mishap
  • “Replacement” fan brick inscribed verbatim with the fan’s uncertain memory.
• Tribute to the randomness of the task
  • “No one is especially good at this. That’s what makes it fun.” – Ben L. (78:58)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Maybe we just got too anchored to the idea that the top NPB players each offseason get gigantic deals—it depends on the class.” – Ben Lindbergh (09:18)
• “The Astros have managed to get a potential mid-rotation starter and still stay under the competitive balance tax threshold, which seems important to them.” – Ben Lindbergh (11:03)
• “This seems bad. I don’t think many of these players are that good. Previous years, I’ve been spoiled for choice.” – Ben Clemens (24:42)
• “We just take turns. Maybe it’s more entertaining this way… it’s Effectively Wild tradition.” – Ben Lindbergh (44:00)
• “If you’re a catcher and you play for the Mariners, you’re probably not going to see big league time.” – Meg Rowley (43:15)
• “Oh god, it’s me again. How many of these do we do? No, I know the answer to that. I love this draft. It’s so dumb.” – Meg Rowley (58:36)
• “Sometimes when we’re explaining who these picks are, it’s like in Can’t Hardly Wait where they’re trying to describe Preston… ‘He’s kind of tall… sometimes he wears t-shirts…’” – Ben Lindbergh (60:06)
• “It would be very funny, and I’m not wishing for this because I’m magnanimous, but… if none of your guys saw big league time [after last year’s perfection].” – Meg Rowley to Ben Lindbergh (78:22)

Key Draft Segment Timestamps

• Tatsuya Imai contract discussion: 03:27–18:21
• Draft rules and historical context: 18:22–23:04
• First picks: 28:44–32:04
• Mid-draft ruminations: 40:55–62:41
• Host self-awareness and humor spikes: 58:36–60:47
• Draft wrap-up and honorable mentions: 81:54–92:00

Tone & Style Highlights

• Playful, nerdy, irreverent: “What are you going to do, be in the Garret Stubbs booby milk business? No, you’re not. You’re going to have respect for yourself, Philadelphia.” – Meg (50:23)
• Community-driven: Repeated appreciation for Patreon supporters who keep stats, track picks, and suggest clever questions.
• Self-referential, tradition-bound: Hosts relishing their own baseball-nerd lore and inviting listeners into a “legendary list for ball knowers.”
• Inclusive of errors and second-guessing: Part of the fun is not knowing, and yet earnestly trying.

For Those Who Haven’t Listened...

This episode is a goldmine of deep baseball esoterica and an affectionate send-up of stathead culture. You’ll get a sense for how teams fill out rosters, why some recognizable names drop off the big league radar, and how baseball’s roster churn can be a source of both pathos and fascination. It’s a true “remember some guys” experience, focused on the edge of every team’s 40-man roster, and a celebration of the unpredictability and humor of the sport.

For further detail, including links to referenced articles and transactions, see the episode show page and EWStats.com.

Happy New Year, Effectively Wild listeners!