Effectively Wild Episode 2423: The State of the Stove

Date: January 7, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (A) & Meg Rowley (B)
Podcast: Effectively Wild – FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

Episode Overview

In this episode, Ben and Meg explore the evolving world of Major League Baseball coaching hires, drawing on the news of Daniel Vogelbach—recently retired at age 33—joining the Milwaukee Brewers as a hitting coach. They discuss the merits and flaws of sabermetric stats, prompted by Tommy Pham's advocacy for his personal model "PhamGraphs" and critiques of advanced stats in The Athletic. Other topics include the Blue Jays' aggressive offseason, highlighted by their signing of Japanese star Kazuma Okamoto, state-of-the-market reflections on free agent signings, and the general “temperature” of the hot stove. The conversation is lively, analytical, and full of effectively wild banter.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Daniel Vogelbach’s Rapid Transition into Coaching

(00:46–12:04)

• Initial Reactions:
  • Ben brings up the Brewers hiring Daniel Vogelbach—a recently retired 33-year-old—as a hitting coach. Meg admits this makes her feel old because, “If a 33 year old can…be judged to have that expertise, and I’m older than them, it feels…I feel quite old.” (02:43)
• Changing Face of Coaching:
  • Coaches are skewing younger as teams prioritize player development at the major league level.
  • Ben: “Maybe there’s also more tolerance for coaches themselves developing as coaches at the big league level, even as they are developing players at the big league level.” (03:52)
  • The trend away from the "old timer" coach, toward a broader array of specialized staff.
• How Coaching Hire Decisions Are Made:
  • “It so often is just your connections and who you know, and that’s how you get the job.” (04:53)
  • Inside jobs and the significance of personal relationships are highlighted in Vogelbach's transition.
• Role of Former Players:
  • Being a recent player still matters—a big-league past opens doors, but successful coaching requires more than playing skill.
  • Meg: “Sometimes guys get hired and you think…just because you’re able to do it…doesn’t mean that you’re going to be a good instructor.” (07:19)
• Expanded Coaching Rosters:
  • The modern major league staff is sprawling. The Brewers, for example, have 3 hitting coaches (lead and assistants), multiple pitching staff, game prep specialists, etc.
  • Ben: “It takes a village.” (09:32)
• Organizational Investment:
  • Teams with payroll constraints (like the Brewers) invest in coaching—“pretty inexpensive value relative to the cost of a big leaguer.” (12:04)
• Personal Touches:
  • Meg suggests players-turned-coaches can be valuable conduits if they relate well to current players.

Notable Quote

“Maybe having a former player there whom other players are comfortable confiding in, that could help.”
—Ben (10:30)

2. The Tommy Pham "FamGraphs" Debate

(19:41–54:33)

• Trigger:
  • Ben references an Athletic article by Will Sammon and Eno Sarris on Tommy Pham's critiques of advanced stats and his “FamGraphs” model.
• Pham's Core Complaints:
  • Pham argues for adjusting stats for opponent quality, claiming hitters on poor teams face better pitchers more often.
• Debunking with Data:
  • Ben and Meg evaluate the logic and data behind Pham's claims:
    • Ben: “I’m sympathetic to the idea that advanced stats should or could account for opponent quality...some of them do. In fact, Baseball Reference does, OPS+ does, and DRC+ (Baseball Prospectus) does.” (24:49)
    • They cite BP’s data: No substantial correlation between team quality and opponent pitcher quality; divisional alignment is a bigger factor.
    • “Tommy Pham faced almost exactly average opposing pitcher quality according to BP—100.1.” (37:51)
• Further Statistical Nuance:
  • The hosts discuss whether more adjustment (beyond opponent quality) is warranted, including lineup context, lineup protection, weather, and environmental factors.
  • “Often the thing that they’re saying the numbers leave out is not actually left out.” (24:14)
  • Meg: “For the individual player level…that makes the most difference for guys who are looking at accumulating value in part time or platoon or complementary roles.” (42:37)
• On WAR and Memory:
  • They emphasize that while public stats like WAR shape popular perceptions (and thus sometimes pay arbitration), front offices use far more granular models.
  • Meg: “I do worry that we have sort of oversold [WAR's] precision. And so maybe we should focus more on incorporating more and more information so that it is more and more precise…” (47:09)

Notable Quotes

“A 100 WRC+ on the Pirates is not the same as a 100 WRC+ on the Yankees…”
—Tommy Pham (quoted by Ben, 33:21)

“The correlation between team winning percentage and opposing pitcher quality as measured by BP was literally 0.000.”
—Ben (51:01)

• Fact-Checking Pham’s Claims:
  • Ben follows up with data: Pham's assertions about facing far stronger competition in 2024 don’t match the numbers. His opponent quality was actually average.
  • “He doesn’t seem to have faced uniquely difficult pitching or even more difficult pitching than average.” (96:13)

3. Blue Jays Sign Kazuma Okamoto & Offseason Power Moves

(55:03–69:21)

• Blue Jays Land Okamoto:
  • Toronto signs Japan’s Kazuma Okamoto (4 years, $60M)—the “last prominent” NPB player to come over this winter.
  • This deal aligns with analyst expectations (compared to surprisingly low deals for some other NPB free agents).
• Scouting Okamoto:
  • Ben: “Given how great he has been...Okamoto even though this was more in line with the consensus, I think it’s a good deal.” (56:01)
  • Okamoto offers well-rounded offensive skills and can “at least play a passable third base.”
• Jays’ Roster Construction:
  • The Blue Jays’ offseason has been “impressive,” aggressive, and sets them up as a true powerhouse in the AL East.
  • “We should think of Toronto as a, a titan of the sport when it comes to resources. And fortunately, they seem to see themselves that way now.” (67:19)

Notable Quotes

“It’s been an impressive offseason for them, coming off of a pennant and nearly winning a World Series. And they have not sat on their hands, rested on their laurels.”
—Ben (63:10)

“We should think of them that way, you know, where they’re just like the big powerhouse…in recent years and now, and their financial resources, they’re bigger than those teams. They’ve shown more of a willingness to spend. They have those resources.”
—Ben (67:19)

4. State of the Free Agent Stove: Slow or Just "Mid"

(74:30–87:43)

• Market Check:
  • Six of the top 10 free agents are still unsigned, including Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette, and Ranger Suárez.
  • Ben and Meg discuss whether the hot stove is moving slowly.
  • Ben: “It’s not, it’s not unprecedented. It’s not like what’s going on here, you know…” (78:24)
• Why Does It Feel Slow?
  • Fewer headline trades compared to prior years.
  • “I think that a lot of this might just be explained by the midness of this class.” —Meg (81:31)
  • The lack of blockbuster moves, especially from the Yankees, intensifies local pressure.
• Notes on Late Signings:
  • Ben reminds that “guys who sign late in an offseason…tend to do worse relative to pre-offseason expectations…But that doesn’t necessarily mean teams get a bargain; it’s often because there’s less demand.” (90:49–92:36)

5. Team-by-Team Offseason Pressure

(87:43–93:51)

• Expectations and Frustrations:
  • Yankees: Under more pressure than usual, with all AL East rivals improving.
  • Cubs: “Not really flexing the financial muscle” and unlikely to re-sign Kyle Tucker, disappointing fans—“no one ever seemed to think that they would.”
  • The Orioles and Red Sox also have moves left to make; the Giants’ signings are described as “uninspiring…just, just boring.”
• World Series Loser Aggression:
  • Statistically, World Series losers tend to make more aggressive moves than winners to “get over the top.”

6. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It takes a village.” —Ben on the Brewers’ 16-person coaching roster (09:32)
• “I just feel like I was sold a bill of goods.” —Ben, joking about Vogelbach never stealing an MLB base (18:31)
• “Fam graphs…they did capitalize the G. I don’t know whether Pham himself specified that or…that’s much appreciated.” —Ben on the stylization of ‘FamGraphs’ (19:41)
• “You could throw harder. And it’s like, well, can I?” —Meg, on the shortcomings of elite players as coaches, referencing Zack Greinke (15:29)

7. Miscellaneous & Listener Follow-ups

(96:13–End)

• Ben delivers a fact check on Pham’s claims about his 2024 opponents: the numbers do not back up Pham’s narrative, and his performance was typical for his late-career stage.
• Listener Anthony writes in proposing that minor league contraction, reduced drafts, and COVID have all led to a thinner minor league free agent crop.
• Fun side note: discussion of Ozzie Albies’ 6,000-gallon fish tank and his adventures maintaining it (101:31).

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Vogelbach to Brewers, coaches getting younger: 00:46–12:04
• Tommy Pham/FamGraphs discussion: 19:41–54:33
• Blue Jays sign Kazuma Okamoto: 55:03–69:21
• Giants’ offseason / state of the stove: 70:14–78:24
• AL East arms race/Yankees inactivity: 80:44–87:19
• Discussion of late signings and team urgency: 87:43–93:51
• FamClaims fact-check & wrap-up: 96:13–End

Conclusion

This installment deftly combines the offbeat and the analytical, mixing big-picture baseball evolutions—like coaching hires and stat philosophy—with offseason market dynamics and front-office strategies. It’s a treasure for stats-minded listeners and anyone interested in how culture and process shape modern MLB.