Effectively Wild Episode 2426: The Hot (Stove) Corner

Date: January 14, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)

Episode Overview

This episode brings a much-welcomed feast of transactions and rumors after a quiet offseason, allowing Ben and Meg to dig deep into new big-name signings—most notably Alex Bregman joining the Cubs, and Nolan Arenado finally getting traded to the Diamondbacks. The hosts discuss the fit and impact of these moves, analyze a notable ballpark dimension change, and take a nostalgic detour into baseball’s ongoing culture war between stats and "gut." There’s also time for corrections, listener emails, and playful tangents about team names and ballpark oddities.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Alex Bregman Signs with the Chicago Cubs

[01:03 - 13:30]

• Deal Details: 5 years, $175 million (about $150 million present day value due to deferrals, $30-35M AAV), no opt-outs, full no-trade.
• Fit and Impact:
  • Both hosts agree it’s a clear on-field upgrade ("an upgrade at the hot corner" — Meg, [02:47]), but question if it addresses the Cubs' most pressing needs.
  • "I am heartened to see the Chicago Cubs remembering that they have money and can spend it and that money is fungible and baseball players are not." – Meg [02:16]
  • Skepticism about paying top dollar for a 32-year-old in decline, especially as Shaw (the incumbent 3B) could be improving as Bregman declines.
  • Discussion about the possible ripple effect—specifically, whether Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw might be moved (with implications for depth, chemistry, and financials).
• Club Direction:
  • "It did sort of perplex me that this is the guy who convinced them to spend. If you could just do the offseason over and say 'we have $35 million/year to spend,' would it be at third base?" – Ben [06:44]
• On Bregman as a Player:
  • Still productive, though "kind of has an old man profile now. So, like, how much room for error does he have on the back end of this deal, I don't know." – Meg [12:14]
• Wrigley as a Fit:
  • Career numbers suggest Bregman isn’t purely a park creation ("He has a 134 WRC+ at home, and 133 on the road" – Ben [20:11]), but Wrigley’s quirks may not suit his classic pull-heavy swing as well as Houston’s Crawford Boxes did.

2. Cubs’ Infield and Future Team Building

[09:12 – 18:43]

• Possible Trades: Ongoing speculation about dealing Hoerner or Shaw (citing rumors, perceived clubhouse issues, and roster fit).
• Free Agent Philosophy:
  • Questions about why the Cubs spent big on Bregman instead of a starter or bringing back Kyle Tucker.
  • Reference to the Cubs acting more like a big market team again, but with continued uncertainty about a true “go for it” strategy.
• Long-term Strategy:
  • Potential benefit in simply keeping both Shaw and Hoerner, using budget to create depth rather than cycle out productive players.
  • "I think they should keep Hoerner and just figure it out... you can afford to keep that person as depth and redundancy and just added strength." – Ben [15:22]

3. Nolan Arenado Traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks

[27:03 – 36:14]

• Trade Details: Cardinals send Arenado and cash for a minor league pitcher (Jack Martinez) mainly as a salary dump; D-backs only pay $11 million of the remaining $42M.
• Arenado’s Role:
  • Seen as low-risk for Arizona, given minimal salary outlay.
  • Expectation: If he’s league average, that’s a big win ("Best case, you're looking at...a league average bat and a reasonable defender at third, but hey, a league average bat and a reasonable defender at third is very useful to the Diamondbacks." – Meg [32:30])
  • No threat of blocking prospects or up-and-coming talent.
• For the Cardinals:
  • Clears salary, likely to give Jordan Lawlar (and maybe others) a shot.

4. Big Picture Thoughts: Value, Aging Players, and the Boris Effect

[36:14 – 41:49]

• Scott Boras’s Influence:
  • Bregman’s big deal is another feather in Boras’s cap, showing that even with perceived missteps, he tends to get strong overall returns for his players.
  • Ben and Meg debate the tendency to read too much into one offseason’s deals when evaluating an agent’s prowess.
  • “He didn't create the system... But he does generally, I think, have the players' interests at heart...” – Ben [43:00]

5. Kansas City Royals Change Outfield Dimensions

[44:03 – 55:23]

• Change Details: Outfield walls at Kaufman Stadium are mostly coming in by 10 feet; fences lowered from 10 to 8.5 feet.
• Motivation:
  • Royals want to neutralize the park as a home run environment, hoping not to disadvantage their hitters or negatively affect player approaches.
  • "They want to juice the home runs... But Kaufman is if anything kind of a hitter’s park at this point just without the homers." – Ben [50:00]
• Trend Commentary:
  • Both lament the homogenization of MLB parks, which decreases quirks like high triples factors and advantages in park-specific roster construction.
  • "When it comes to ballparks, that's what everyone wants. They just kind of want to be average." – Ben [56:12]
• Quotable Moment:
  • "The way for us to have our cake and eat it too is for teams to just be changing their parks all the time." – Meg [53:58]

6. Stats Culture War Redux: Ruben Amaro Jr. and the Value of Analytics

[64:30 – 83:37]

• Trigger: Former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. goes on a Twitter rant, dismissing advanced stats (WRC+) as “clown show numbers,” defending his Ryan Howard extension as “wins” and “driving in runs.”
• Hosts’ Reflection:
  • Debate how recently this old-school mindset could still be found in MLB front offices.
  • Amaro’s attitude is presented as a "time capsule" from the stat/culture wars of the 2000s–2010s.
  • "I think that it is an obligation that media members should take seriously to try to engage with this stuff. That doesn't mean that you... have to be like some soulless machine... but you have to have the other part too, you know." – Meg [81:19]
• Historical Context:
  • Both recall the fervor of the old debates and how the dominance of sabermetric thinking has changed the game’s culture.
  • "There was something kind of intoxicating, addictive about those flame wars... now it's like... the battle's over. That way of thinking mostly came out on top." – Ben [82:23]

7. Listener Emails and Corrections

[87:58 – End]

• Stove League TV Recommendation:
  • A listener reflects on the Korean baseball drama "Stove League," tying its match-fixing story to real-life MLB scandals.
• Coaches Unretiring:
  • More historical examples, including Yogi Berra (1965 Mets) and Tim Collins (2020s), who went from coach to player.
• Sea Unicorns Name Correction:
  • Multiple listeners inform the show that the "Sea Unicorns" team name is a reference to narwhals, a real animal (“Sea Unicorns also nickname for narwhals. So our apologies to narwhals for... selling them short.” – Ben [98:50])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "I am nourished by the sweet nectar of transactions providing us with offseason life and fodder to discuss. Our cup overfloweth runneth over." – Ben [00:32]
• "I just feel a variety of ways about it, Ben. I don't dislike it, but I don't know if from a pure optimal allocation of salary dollars perspective, if it's like the best that they could have done." – Meg [12:00]
• On ballpark trends:
  "There's an article that I've cited and linked to a lot from the Hardball Times back in 2017 by John LaRue that was called the Homogenization of Ballparks... showed how things have become less idiosyncratic and just more similar across the board." – Ben [49:52]
• On old-school stats resistance:
  "It brought me back a bit to hear someone taking this tack and striking this stance in the year 2026... you could be the top ranking member of a major league organization... with that sort of attitude toward the game." – Ben [68:46]

Important Timestamps

• Bregman & Cubs contract details: [01:27 – 13:30]
• Cubs infield ramifications: [09:12 – 18:43]
• Arenado to D-backs trade: [27:03 – 36:14]
• Scott Boras’ client outcomes: [36:14 – 41:49]
• Royals moving in the fences: [44:03 – 55:23]
• Homogenization of parks discussion: [48:40 – 55:23]
• Ruben Amaro Jr./stat war nostalgia: [64:30 – 83:37]
• Listener corrections and eclectic emails: [87:58 – end]

Episode Tone & Style

The episode is lively, nerdy, and introspective—balancing thoughtful statistical analysis with genuine curiosity, dry humor, and nostalgia. Ben and Meg are candid about the joys and frustrations of roster construction, trends, and baseball’s perpetual tug-of-war between tradition and innovation. There are frequent callbacks to classic Effectively Wild themes: odd roster fits, baseball’s quirky history, and the stats-vs-scouts culture clash.

Summary for New Listeners

If you want a clear-eyed, conversational look at how today’s MLB teams are shaping their rosters, how ballparks and contracts are evolving, and why nerd fights on the Internet can sometimes matter, this is the episode for you. Come for the Alex Bregman takes, stay for the narwhal facts and laments about baseball’s vanishing weirdness.