Effectively Wild Episode 2427: Holo Victory

Date: January 16, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs), Michael Bauman
Special Guest: John Norton (Patreon supporter)

Episode Overview

This episode of Effectively Wild dives into recent American League East transactions, with a particular focus on the Yankees’ trade for pitcher Ryan Weathers and the Red Sox’s five-year signing of Ranger Suárez. The hosts unpack strategy shifts, roster-building philosophies, and what these moves signal for both teams and the division overall. The second segment features top-tier Patreon supporter John Norton, who joins to answer listener hypotheticals about free agency structures, the value of being MLB’s worst player, drug policy and WAR, and, in true Effectively Wild fashion, the fictional stats of Star Trek’s Buck Bokai.

AL East Transactions and Analysis

Yankees Acquire Ryan Weathers (00:43–11:51)

• Yankees’ Motivation:

  • Yankees break offseason inactivity by trading for Marlins starter Ryan Weathers, after failing to acquire Edward Cabrera, who went to the Cubs.
  • Discuss the "depth and risk" factor: Weathers is talented but often injured.
    • “He’s been hurt for a lot of it. But he seems to be adaptable. He's made some changes...even if like the stats didn’t quite line up with what you might expect based on the underlying quality of his pitches.” – Meg (03:59)
  • Marlins’ side: Seen as confidence in pitching pipeline, possibly prepping for prospects like Thomas White & Robbie Snelling to get MLB time.

• Expectations for Weathers:

  • Upside discussion: Could thrive if healthy, addition of a slider, uptick in velocity.
  • “They needed rotation depth and they're adding a guy who is not really the provider of depth. He's kind of the type who tests your depth…” – Meg (08:44)

• Fan Montage:

  • Yankees fans may be underwhelmed—“It's hardly a slam dunk move like ‘we did it, mission accomplished, offseason’s a success’, but it's a start.” – Ben (11:09)
  • Trade trivia: Weathers’ father (David) had a rough Yankees tenure—“26 and a third innings with a 9.57 ERA…” – Meg (07:32)

Red Sox Sign Ranger Suárez (11:53–14:44)

• Contract Details: Five years, $130 million.

• “They had the best projected rotation…according to the fangraph step charts, and now they do by even more.” – Meg (13:13)

• Rotation Depth:

  • Red Sox now “go like 10 deep with guys who would be viable back of the rotation pitchers.” – Ben (13:46)
  • Notable pitchers: Crochet, Gray, Suárez, Baio, Oviedo, Sandoval, more.

• Trade Rumors & Depth:

  • “I understand. You can never have too much pitching, whatever. But they have so many guys… I have to imagine they do some sort of consolidation trade.” – Michael (14:30)

AL East Competitive Landscape (21:51–25:32)

• Strength in Numbers:

  • Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox dominate top of Fangraphs projected WAR.
  • Orioles and Mets also in the mix — AL East seen as “powerhouse.”

• Big Picture:

  • “Whichever one I look at last seems to me to be stronger and the favorite in this division.” – Ben (23:05)
  • “There’s too much depth, which is … a good problem to have, but you do kind of wait for the other shoe to drop…” – Ben (24:19)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “They haven't really signed a free agent to a multi-year deal… during the Breslow years. Right. And they have shown a reluctance to sign pitchers in particular to long term deals.” – Meg on Red Sox philosophy (02:01)
• “So okay, I, I guess I see the vision, but until we see the vision actually come to fruition long term… it's hard to have any faith if you're a fan.” – Meg on Marlins approach (06:38)
• “I think [the Suárez deal] just seemed like a reasonable deal. Zips was like, yeah, that's about what I'd give him. I think it was off by, like, you know, five, six million dollars. So it seems like they kind of dialed it in just right.” – Michael on market price (18:15)
• On Suárez’s craftiness: “He's almost too young to be a crafty lefty, but he's crafty beyond his years.” – Ben (19:13)

Listener Segment: With John Norton (Patreon Guest) (26:49–92:03)

John Norton Introduction (26:49–30:14)

• Long-time listener celebrating with a top-tier Patreon appearance; background as a statistician in the pharmaceutical industry.

Notable moment:

• “A baseball player is actually kind of like a drug…you make a very large upfront investment… the risks and the rewards are very uncertain.” – John (30:45)

Hypothetical: Free Agent Timeshare (30:34–36:40)

• John proposes two teams “timesharing” a free agent to split risk/cost.
• Hosts mull logistical, contractual, and lifestyle issues (family, rivalry, premium, etc.).
• Michael: “It seems like a young man's endeavor...if you get the cliff year where the decline really sets in...you’d feel pretty annoyed by that.” (31:52)
• Mega: “Maybe you’d have to pay more to get someone to agree to that, and then maybe you’re not really reaping any of the rewards of decreased risk...” (34:04)

Hypothetical: Yearly Free Agency vs. Long-Term Security (39:37–48:56)

• Who made the most by only signing one-year MLB contracts? Examples: Edwin Jackson, Rich Hill, Roger Clemens (his late-career model), per Cot’s Contracts.
• “Long term contracts really are really more important to the players...it’s in the player's interest to have the long term contract, no matter how appealing it may be to be open to any bidder every year.” – John (44:05)
• Discussion of Trevor Bauer’s old claim: would only sign one-year deals (46:22).

Hypothetical: Would You Want To Be MLB’s Worst Player? (50:06–63:06)

• Listener asks if hosts would trade infamy for the “experience” of being MLB’s worst player.
• Ben: “No, I would not want to do this… It would feel and be entirely unearned, obviously. So I wouldn’t feel as if I had accomplished anything…” (53:03)
• John: “I guess it kind of depends on how much of your self esteem depends on your athletic performance...” (51:05)
• Michael: “The notion of doing this and in front of people on TV. Absolutely not.” (62:17)
• Ben references the Sonoma Stompers experiment: gaining a Baseball Reference page “would have undercut our message.” (59:04)

Statistical/Philosophical: Should Switch-Hitting Earn Extra Credit? (64:27–77:10)

• Listener Philip asks if switch hitters should get “extra credit” for difficulty, since it’s ultimately a strategic choice.
• “If you have the capacity to switch hit, every switch hitter has the option to stop switch hitting… and they opt not to because they think that switch hitting gives them advantages.” – Meg (69:41)
• Michael: “Maybe part of the issue is that I don’t…think about it as something that’s commendable. Right. It’s not virtuous. It's impressive.” (68:08)
• Consensus: Impressive, but not inherently virtuous—choice confers advantage.

Statistical/Philosophical: "Clean" WAR Without PED Guys (78:20–82:22)

• Listener Orion asks: what if you made a parallel WAR calculation stripping out all PED users?
• Hosts doubt it would move stats much, as PED history is “selective and incomplete,” and many users were non-stars. “If you removed only confirmed periods of PED use, it would not make much of a difference to the league wide baselines, really.” – Meg (80:25)

Star Trek Baseball Lore: Is Buck Bokai the GOAT? (82:26–91:02)

• Listener Matt asks about the fictional stats of Buck Bokai.
• Hosts break down the canon (longevity, position switch, lack of power, long hit streak).
• “You could be a shortstop and play for an extremely long time and theoretically rack up the kind of value that a corner outfielder did despite him hitting for far more power than you.” – Ben (86:27)
• The hosts agree that a player like Bokai could be the greatest, especially after 27 seasons and enough on-base/defensive value.

Fun & Meta Moments

• Holodeck analogies: “If we’re on the holodeck, you know, if this is just like a VR simulation… that I would do to get a sense of what that would feel like without all of the associated downsides.” – Meg (61:48)
• Meta podcast humor: Patreon guests tend to plug concepts like “the scientific method” rather than self-promotion—“A lot of upsides to the scientific method. We should continue to trust that, I think.” – Ben (92:24)

Key Timestamps

• 00:43 – Yankees trade for Ryan Weathers
• 11:53 – Red Sox sign Ranger Suárez
• 21:51 – AL East power rankings & competitive landscape
• 26:49 – Patreon guest John Norton joins
• 30:34 – Pharma-inspired free agency timeshare proposal
• 39:37 – Lifetime earnings via one-year contracts
• 50:06 – Would you be MLB's worst player for the experience?
• 64:27 – Should switch hitters get special credit?
• 78:20 – Stripping PED users from WAR/stat baselines
• 82:26 – Buck Bokai: could his stats make him the GOAT?
• 92:03 – Meta/outro, plugs (“the scientific method”)

Tone and Format

The conversation, as always, is lively and analytical, filled with trademark Effectively Wild digressions, running jokes, and deep dives into both recent transactions and baseball culture hypotheticals. The hosts balance advanced stat analysis with humor and endearing nerdiness ("it’s a strong roster," “we can never have enough stats about AL East dominance,” “the scientific method!”), maintaining their accessible, community-driven ethos.

For More

• Ringer MLB Show episode on DS9’s holodeck baseball (Ben & Michael)
• Patreon: patreon.com/effectivelywild
• Email: podcast@fangraphs.com

Summary prepared for listeners who missed the episode—expect episodes packed with advanced baseball analysis, wild hypotheticals, and affectionate baseball nerdery.