Effectively Wild Episode 2434: Hold Your Dark Horses

Date: January 31, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (B), Meg Rowley (A)
Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

Episode Overview

In this episode, Ben and Meg reflect on recent front office and management shakeups, analyze the offseasons and futures of several MLB teams—focusing on lopsided rosters, "dark horse" playoff candidates, and new contract structures—while peppering the conversation with their trademark humor, wordplay, and thoughtful asides. They also respond to listener mail on Lord of the Rings baseball hypotheticals and discuss some fun idiomatic and linguistic quirks related to baseball and beyond.

Key Discussion Points

1. Twins Front Office Shakeup

• [00:35–09:15]
• Derek Falvey is out as President of Baseball Operations and Business for the Twins—peculiar timing so close to spring training.
• Ben and Meg aren’t sure if the decision was mutual or prompted by ownership turbulence, especially considering off-season instability and payroll constraints.
• Jeremy Zell promoted to GM; Tom Polad becomes interim business president.
• "Would've been strange if they had just stripped him back to baseball only..." – Ben [02:58]
• Lament over the impossibility of doing both "pobo" (president of baseball ops) and "business" together:
  “It’s like a player-manager or something. Maybe Falvey’s the last POBOs we’ll ever see.” – Ben [06:01]
• The AL Central’s general lack of ambition (“AL Centralling all over the place” – Meg [06:54]) remains a theme.

2. Oakland Athletics: Roster Building & Extensions

• [10:03–23:02]
• Jacob Wilson, A’s shortstop, signs a 7-year, $70M extension—part of a trend locking up position players (Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, etc.).
• Athletics have a respectable core of hitters, but pitching remains a persistent problem.
• Discussion on prospect arms (Gage Jump, Morales, Jamie Arnold) and the unique challenge of attracting pitchers to the organization, particularly in light of Severino’s disappointing free agency experience.
• Anticipation about the eventual Vegas move and the hope that a new ballpark could help recruit and pay for pitching talent.
• Analytical note:
  “Last year they were 13th in position player WAR… respectable, playoff-caliber, but pitching… 27th.” – Ben [16:46]
• Playoff simulations occasionally favor the A’s if their young pitchers can take a step forward.
• A’s as a “fashionable dark horse” pick, moving from contrarian to mainstream in prediction season.

3. Lopsided Teams and Team Building

• [16:46–23:02; 60:12–63:45]
• The A’s profile as one of MLB's most lopsided clubs (exciting offense, bottom-tier pitching).
• Pirates given as similar, but in reverse: excellent pitching, poor position-player group.
• A running joke: “What we need to do clearly is merge the A’s and the Pirates and then you would have a sort of super team.” – Ben [63:45]

4. New MLB Contract Structures: “Trampoline” vs “Pillow” Deals

• [23:02–38:47]
• Analysis spurred by a piece distinguishing “pillow contracts” (classic: one-year deals) from “trampoline contracts” (two-to-three-year deals with early opt-outs).
• Scott Boras’s influence on opt-out deal popularity, tracing the innovation to J.D. Drew and Adrian Beltre contracts.
• Ben relays a statistical analysis showing that, over time, opt-out deals don’t really “cost” players money—they end up matching market projections almost exactly.
• Notable quote:
  “So these guys who... have had to settle... for the trampoline contract... [still] get what was projected for them. So in that sense, the math just kind of works out as projected." – Ben [29:38]
• Meg muses on Boris’s continued effectiveness as an agent, arguing that although his puns are getting worse, the deals still “end up being okay” for clients. [31:31]
• Discussion of how recurring opt-outs “serial free agents” could make future free agent classes stronger than they appear on paper.
• Fan perspective: opt-outs create emotional tension—harder for fans to become attached, because the better a player performs, the likelier they are to leave after a year or two.

5. MLB Offseason Inactivity: Frustrating Teams

• [44:42–81:08]
• Hosts debate which teams’ inactivity has most irked them and why.
• Tigers, Guardians, Reds, and Orioles called out for lackluster offseasons relative to opportunity or recent performance.
• Meg: “The Tigers... have the combination of stakes and also opportunity to be just a little bit more ambitious, having a tremendous benefit within the context of the Central.” [48:56]
• Ben: “Year after year... just get an outfielder for once. Like sign a Harrison Bader or something. I know you have the lotter coming in, but it’s just... just go get a bat.” [51:08]
• Mariners’ lack of moves is discussed with some forgiveness—Ben: “I'm more forgiving... Because I do think the Mariners are good.” [55:23]
• Pirates and Brewers included as low-spending/underwhelming despite opportunities given their young cores and positive signals.

6. Who Are the Real “Dark Horses” for 2026?

• [65:49–76:13]
• Hosts query which teams genuinely qualify as dark horse playoff contenders in 2026.
• Criteria: must have a “legitimately respectable” unit (offense OR pitching), must have been overlooked or ridiculed recently, not just a recent playoff team with a minor step up.
• Teams mentioned:
  • A’s – may be too obvious/fashionable for this crowd.
  • Pirates – reverse A’s, strong pitching, miserable offense.
  • Marlins – Meg’s top pick: “I think the Marlins are my dark horse team for 2026.” [67:51]
  • Twins – possible, due to low public expectation but respectable projection.
  • Royals, Giants, Rays – discussed as not quite fitting the label.
• The audience-specific nature of “dark horse” is acknowledged: to casuals, the A’s or Marlins might be surprising, but to plugged-in fans, less so.

7. Listener Mail: Lord of the Rings Baseball Hypotheticals

• [85:39–94:29]
• Extensive and lighthearted feedback on prior week's chat about constructing a baseball team of characters from Lord of the Rings.
• Fun moments:
  • “Bag End of the Bullpen” pun (from Discord, [85:40])
  • Aragorn considered for center field, Legolas for shortstop, Ents ruled out due to pitch clock violations.
  • Gandalf on the mound (“he throws heat, literally”), hobbits as strike zone nightmares.
  • Question: Should magic/invisibility be allowed? No—invisible players break the game, especially with strike zones and replay.
  • Query as to whether mutants who turn invisible must be naked: “They just have to wear their uniform.” – Meg [91:59]
  • General appreciation for feedback: “People clearly enjoyed that conversation... It was a good fun time, man.” – Meg [94:50]

Memorable Quotes & Moments

A’s and Pirates Superteam

• "What we need to do clearly is merge the A’s and the Pirates and then you would have a sort of super team... Smash the two rosters together in some sort of super collider and we end up with some... Pirates-A’s, like, substance that is really good on both sides of the ball." – Ben [63:45–64:47]

On the Opt-Out Era

• “There is kind of a conflict there where you know that if that deal’s paying off, then they’re gonna leave you, or at least they're gonna test the market.” – Ben [40:56]

AL Central as a Theme

• “It’s just al Centralling all over the place.” – Meg [06:54]
• “A division that lacks a particular kind of ambition, you know?” – Meg [07:06]

Meg’s Friday Energy

• “We're getting into the Friday energy, and I haven't even opened a beer.” – Meg [69:15]

On the Twins’ Rogers Twins

• “Their names need to be further apart on the name spectrum than Taylor and Tyler. That's effectively the same name.” – Meg [78:42]

Notable Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-----------|---------------| | [00:35] | Twins front office shakeup & AL Central ambition | | [10:03] | A’s extensions—position players vs. pitching imbalance | | [16:46] | Deep dive on lopsided rosters and projections | | [23:02] | Pillow vs. trampoline contracts; Boris era; player mobility | | [38:47] | Fan perspective: contracts, player turnover, emotional ties | | [44:42] | Underwhelming offseasons: Tigers, Guardians, Reds, Orioles | | [55:23] | Mariners: forgiving a quiet winter | | [65:49] | Who actually qualifies as a “dark horse”? Criteria debate | | [69:15] | The Marlins as 2026 dark horse—audience specificity | | [85:39] | Listener mail: Lord of the Rings baseball lineup review | | [91:59] | Hypotheticals: invisible mutants, uniforms & baseball | | [94:50] | Appreciating listener engagement on fun hypotheticals |

Thematic Summary

This episode blends timely MLB news (front office changes, offseason inertia), analytical commentary (on contract structures, roster construction, projections), and community engagement (listener hypotheticals). The hosts’ rapport and signature witticisms infuse the show with energy and accessibility—themes of ambition (or lack thereof), new market dynamics, and sifting contenders from pretenders underpin their thoughtful, often humorous baseball banter.

For full episode discussion or in-depth team-by-team analysis, refer to the detailed timestamps above.