Effectively Wild Episode 2435: Oddsball Ideas

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs), guest Craig Calcaterra
Date: February 4, 2026

Episode Overview

Episode 2435 covers the launch of FanGraphs' annual playoff odds and the upcoming season preview series, the latest roster moves and free agent signings, complications surrounding the World Baseball Classic (WBC) insurance policies, notable recent trades, and reflections on the 150th anniversary of the National League. The episode delivers trademark effectively wild banter and statistical analysis, while diving into some quirky baseball topics (including bidets in clubhouses) and celebrating the sport’s historical roots.

Notable Topics and Segments

1. Baseball and the Epstein Files (00:40 - 04:32)

• Discussion: Relief that MLB owners and baseball figures have largely avoided implication in recent Jeffrey Epstein file releases.
• Tone: Dry humor and mock-praise for MLB owners.
• Quotes:
  • "You know, I don't say this often, but I have to hand it to MLB owners because they have done a decent job of staying out of the Epstein files." — Ben Lindbergh [00:39]
  • "It's a low bar to clear, but an important one to clear." — Craig Calcaterra [02:55]

2. Season Preview Series & FanGraphs Playoff Odds (04:33 - 09:39)

• Season Preview Launch: The tradition continues, with 15 episodes, each previewing two teams, beginning with “the most mid teams” according to FanGraphs’ new playoff odds.
• Behind the Scenes: Hosts admit to forgetting about player movement and the surprises that always come up when preparing the team previews.
• Quotes:
  • "Players are about to report. Pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, podcasters reporting to team previews. It’s almost time." — Meg Rowley [04:48]
  • "We follow the middle out method... we start with the most mid teams." — Meg Rowley [07:51]

3. World Baseball Classic Insurance Controversy (09:39 - 18:22)

• Key Issue: Uncertainty for WBC rosters, especially Team Puerto Rico, due to insurance companies denying coverage to multiple players (Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Victor Caratini, Miguel Rojas, etc.), stemming from rising costs and injuries during the previous WBC.
• Underlying Problems: Players with recent surgeries, or age above 37, are often denied insurance; MLB and MLBPA are lobbying to change restrictions, but players and fans are frustrated.
• International Player Disparities: Concerns about consistency and possible bias in insurance approvals for different national teams.
• Quotes:
  • "It’s a pretty important part of the business of baseball that is not often really in public view." — Meg Rowley [12:05]
  • "If I can still play in the big leagues for the Dodgers, why am I not going to play for my team in Venezuela and represent my country?" — Miguel Rojas (quoted by Meg Rowley) [15:40]
  • "I hope some of this gets straightened out. It’s disappointing for the players... there’s just so much pro-WBC sentiment now." — Meg Rowley [16:57]
• Timestamps: Deep dive begins [09:39], player eligibility controversy [10:42-17:18].

4. Transactions and Notable Signings (19:11 - 30:38)

a. Luis Arraez to the Giants (19:46 - 27:38)

• Analysis: Arraez addresses a glaring hole at second base for the Giants. He’s a unique, high-contact, low-power hitter whose defensive value is questionable.
• Statistical Split: Debate over whether he’s overrated, underrated, or simply fun and different in the modern game.
• Quotes:
  • "I think he's an upgrade for the Giants, but also it's still not a strength for them..." — Meg Rowley [23:05]
  • "We can be clear-eyed about what he was worth... but as long as you don't oversell it and maybe some did, we could still celebrate him." — Meg Rowley [22:09]
• Timestamps: Discussion begins [19:46], defensive analysis [25:00-27:39].

b. Eugenio Suárez to the Reds (28:30 - 36:08)

• Contract Details: One-year, $15 million deal—lower than projections.
• Player Profile: Suárez offers streaky power and adds needed “thump” to the Reds lineup, though his consistency and age (turning 35) raise concerns.
• Quotes:
  • "I can't get fussed about a one year $15 million deal, and I have more confidence in the ceiling that Suárez presents to the Reds than I do that Arraez presents to the Giants." — Craig Calcaterra [35:22]
  • "He's always been super streaky and the power is undeniable, but he's swinging and missing more..." — Craig Calcaterra [34:16]

5. Three-Team Blockbuster: Brendan Donovan to Mariners (39:08 - 55:58)

• Details: Mariners acquire versatile IF/OF Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals (with Rays as third party); Cardinals get prospects and draft picks (including the intriguing Jurrangelo Cijntje, a mostly right-handed 'ambidextrous' pitcher).
• Analysis: Mariners get a contact-oriented, flexible defender and lineup-topper, settling third base and adding insurance for prospect movement; the deal is seen as “elegant roster construction.”
• Cardinals’ Side: Signaling a rebuild, adding upside prospects, more draft bonus pool flexibility.
• Rays’ Role: Once again acting as trade intermediary, always churning their roster but rarely making headline moves.
• Quotes:
  • "I think that it's a pretty elegant piece of roster construction." — Meg Rowley [48:58]
  • "I don't know why every bit of Luis Arraez news needs to be some kind of culture war..." — Ben Lindbergh [20:36]
  • "The Rays are just, they're getting Williamson and they're shipping out Ledbetter and the competitive balance pick. So yeah, so that's the deal." — Meg Rowley [41:51]
• Timestamps: Trade detailed [39:08], Mariners’ analysis [42:26-49:54], prospect analysis [49:54-55:58].

6. Banter Corner: Jerry Dipoto’s Groundhog Day Quote (56:47 - 61:13)

• Memorable Moment: A lengthy, humorous digression on a strange Jerry Dipoto quote tying the day of a trade to his wedding anniversary and Groundhog Day (“It was a good day, like most other Groundhog Days in my adult life.”)
• Hosts try to parse its meaning, repeatedly circling back in confusion and laughter.
• Quote: "What does this mean, most other groundhog days in my adult life? What, Ben, what does it mean?" — Craig Calcaterra [58:41]

7. White Sox Moves and Strategy (63:10 - 69:22)

• Transactions: Signing OF Austin Hays and a salary-taking reliever move (Jordan Hicks) for prospect David Sandlin.
• Interpretation: Debate whether these are shrewd “flip for prospects” moves or signals the White Sox see a coming window with a young core, though projected playoff odds still bleak.
• Quotes:
  • "Maybe it's a avoid a grievance or maintain revenue sharing status sort of move. Maybe that's all that's happening here or some combination of all of the above." — Meg Rowley [66:31]
  • "I like Chicago’s winter, man. I mean, not the winter in Chicago—that seems like it has been quite cold and unpleasant—but the offseason that they have put together..." — Craig Calcaterra [68:03]

8. FanGraphs Playoff Odds: Notable Reactions (69:31 - 78:14)

• Big Picture: Dodgers way ahead (projected 99.5 wins); AL East projected as a bloodbath with four teams above 50% playoff odds; Pirates surprisingly respectable (82 wins, 37.5% playoff chance).
• Underrated Teams: Brewers and Guardians continue to “break” projections.
• Fun Facts: Dan Szymborski’s exercise combining worst teams’ rosters to match Dodgers’ strength.
• Quotes:
  • "I have been surprised that there has not been more of a reaction to the Dodgers projection..." — Craig Calcaterra [69:48]
  • "Look at those respectable looking Pittsburgh Pirates—82 and 80." — Craig Calcaterra [71:45]

9. Quirk Corner: Clubhouse Bidets (78:27 - 81:46)

• White Sox installing bidets in their clubhouse, prompted by new signing Munetaka Murakami’s visit, mirroring a similar demand by Roki Sasaki in LA.
• Hosts discuss the trend and joke about how bidets might influence player signings and want to know what Bryce Harper thinks of bidets.

10. Historical Segment: 150th Anniversary of the National League (81:54 - 100:43)

With Guest Richard Hershberger (Baseball Historian)

• Topic: The origin of the NL in 1876—why it replaced the National Association, wheeling and dealing, shenanigans, and founding figures like William Hulbert.
• Key Insight: The NL’s longevity is due to its willingness to adapt and some luck; the game's survival is a testament to baseball itself outlasting a century of “rat bastards.”
• Quotes:
  • "They were there to make a buck... but there was also a sense of building the game, that the game itself had intrinsic value." — Richard Hershberger [91:12]
  • "I am a big believer that the proof of what a great game baseball is is that it survives the owners." — Richard Hershberger [100:43]

11. Closing Updates (101:00 - End)

• Prediction Markets: The CFTC announces new rules are coming.
• MLB Broadcast Rights: More teams to be networked under MLB’s umbrella, with revenue still down, possibly influencing futures and labor discussions.
• MLB Salaries: Average up again, but wage growth slowing; fan-submitted deep dive into actual vs. “deserved” career earnings for players (full data available in show notes).

Notable Quotes by Time

• Ben Lindbergh [00:39]: “You know, I don't say this often, but I have to hand it to MLB owners because they have done a decent job of staying out of the Epstein files.”
• Meg Rowley [22:09]: “We can be clear eyed about what he was worth. But I think as long as you don't oversell it and maybe some did, we could still celebrate him.”
• Craig Calcaterra [35:22]: “I can't get fussed about a one year $15 million deal, and I have more confidence in the ceiling that Suarez presents to the Reds than I do that Arraez presents to the Giants.”
• Meg Rowley [48:58]: “I think that it's a pretty elegant piece of roster construction.”
• Craig Calcaterra [58:41]: “What does this mean, most other groundhog days in my adult life? What, Ben, what does it mean?”
• Richard Hershberger [100:43]: “I am a big believer that the proof of what a great game baseball is is that it survives the owners.”

Episode Structure & Flow

• The episode transitions fluidly from quirky banter to serious statistical analysis, covering the latest news and digging into issues both on- and off-field.
• The tone remains analytical yet irreverent, with plenty of inside jokes and meta-commentary on the game, fandom, and even the podcast’s own history.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Epstein Files & Baseball: [00:40 – 04:32]
• Season Preview Series & FanGraphs Odds: [04:33 – 09:39]
• WBC Insurance Controversy: [09:39 – 18:22]
• Luis Arraez to Giants: [19:46 – 27:38]
• Eugenio Suárez to Reds: [28:30 – 36:08]
• Brendan Donovan/Three-Team Trade: [39:08 – 55:58]
• Dipoto Groundhog Day: [56:47 – 61:13]
• White Sox Activity: [63:10 – 69:22]
• FanGraphs Playoff Odds: [69:31 – 78:14]
• Bidets and Clubhouse Upgrades: [78:27 – 81:46]
• National League 150th with Richard Hershberger: [81:54 – 100:43]
• Closing Updates: [101:00 – end]

For Further Exploration

• Spreadsheet of “Deserved” MLB Player Salaries (as referenced in the episode): [Linked in show notes]
• FanGraphs Playoff Odds: [FanGraphs.com]

Next Episode: Astros and Diamondbacks 2026 season previews.

Effectively Wild: "A strange but good hang."