Effectively Wild Episode 2435: Oddsball Ideas

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2435: Oddsball Ideas

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs), guest Craig Calcaterra
Date: February 4, 2026

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Episode Overview

Episode 2435 covers the launch of FanGraphs' annual playoff odds and the upcoming season preview series, the latest roster moves and free agent signings, complications surrounding the World Baseball Classic (WBC) insurance policies, notable recent trades, and reflections on the 150th anniversary of the National League. The episode delivers trademark effectively wild banter and statistical analysis, while diving into some quirky baseball topics (including bidets in clubhouses) and celebrating the sport’s historical roots.

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Notable Topics and Segments

1. Baseball and the Epstein Files (00:40 - 04:32)

• Discussion: Relief that MLB owners and baseball figures have largely avoided implication in recent Jeffrey Epstein file releases.
• Tone: Dry humor and mock-praise for MLB owners.
• Quotes:
  • "You know, I don't say this often, but I have to hand it to MLB owners because they have done a decent job of staying out of the Epstein files." — Ben Lindbergh [00:39]
  • "It's a low bar to clear, but an important one to clear." — Craig Calcaterra [02:55]

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2. Season Preview Series & FanGraphs Playoff Odds (04:33 - 09:39)

• Season Preview Launch: The tradition continues, with 15 episodes, each previewing two teams, beginning with “the most mid teams” according to FanGraphs’ new playoff odds.
• Behind the Scenes: Hosts admit to forgetting about player movement and the surprises that always come up when preparing the team previews.
• Quotes:
  • "Players are about to report. Pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, podcasters reporting to team previews. It’s almost time." — Meg Rowley [04:48]
  • "We follow the middle out method... we start with the most mid teams." — Meg Rowley [07:51]

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3. World Baseball Classic Insurance Controversy (09:39 - 18:22)

• Key Issue: Uncertainty for WBC rosters, especially Team Puerto Rico, due to insurance companies denying coverage to multiple players (Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Victor Caratini, Miguel Rojas, etc.), stemming from rising costs and injuries during the previous WBC.
• Underlying Problems: Players with recent surgeries, or age above 37, are often denied insurance; MLB and MLBPA are lobbying to change restrictions, but players and fans are frustrated.
• International Player Disparities: Concerns about consistency and possible bias in insurance approvals for different national teams.
• Quotes:
  • "It’s a pretty important part of the business of baseball that is not often really in public view." — Meg Rowley [12:05]
  • "If I can still play in the big leagues for the Dodgers, why am I not going to play for my team in Venezuela and represent my country?" — Miguel Rojas (quoted by Meg Rowley) [15:40]
  • "I hope some of this gets straightened out. It’s disappointing for the players... there’s just so much pro-WBC sentiment now." — Meg Rowley [16:57]
• Timestamps: Deep dive begins [09:39], player eligibility controversy [10:42-17:18].

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4. Transactions and Notable Signings (19:11 - 30:38)

a. Luis Arraez to the Giants (19:46 - 27:38)

• Analysis: Arraez addresses a glaring hole at second base for the Giants. He’s a unique, high-contact, low-power hitter whose defensive value is questionable.
• Statistical Split: Debate over whether he’s overrated, underrated, or simply fun and different in the modern game.
• Quotes:
  • "I think he's an upgrade for the Giants, but also it's still not a strength for them..." — Meg Rowley [23:05]
  • "We can be clear-eyed about what he was worth... but as long as you don't oversell it and maybe some did, we could still celebrate him." — Meg Rowley [22:09]
• Timestamps: Discussion begins [19:46], defensive analysis [25:00-27:39].

b. Eugenio Suárez to the Reds (28:30 - 36:08)

• Contract Details: One-year, $15 million deal—lower than projections.
• Player Profile: Suárez offers streaky power and adds needed “thump” to the Reds lineup, though his consistency and age (turning 35) raise concerns.
• Quotes:
  • "I can't get fussed about a one year $15 million deal, and I have more confidence in the ceiling that Suárez presents to the Reds than I do that Arraez presents to the Giants." — Craig Calcaterra [35:22]
  • "He's always been super streaky and the power is undeniable, but he's swinging and missing more..." — Craig Calcaterra [34:16]

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5. Three-Team Blockbuster: Brendan Donovan to Mariners (39:08 - 55:58)

• Details: Mariners acquire versatile IF/OF Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals (with Rays as third party); Cardinals get prospects and draft picks (including the intriguing Jurrangelo Cijntje, a mostly right-handed 'ambidextrous' pitcher).
• Analysis: Mariners get a contact-oriented, flexible defender and lineup-topper, settling third base and adding insurance for prospect movement; the deal is seen as “elegant roster construction.”
• Cardinals’ Side: Signaling a rebuild, adding upside prospects, more draft bonus pool flexibility.
• Rays’ Role: Once again acting as trade intermediary, always churning their roster but rarely making headline moves.
• Quotes:
  • "I think that it's a pretty elegant piece of roster construction." — Meg Rowley [48:58]
  • "I don't know why every bit of Luis Arraez news needs to be some kind of culture war..." — Ben Lindbergh [20:36]
  • "The Rays are just, they're getting Williamson and they're shipping out Ledbetter and the competitive balance pick. So yeah, so that's the deal." — Meg Rowley [41:51]
• Timestamps: Trade detailed [39:08], Mariners’ analysis [42:26-49:54], prospect analysis [49:54-55:58].

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6. Banter Corner: Jerry Dipoto’s Groundhog Day Quote (56:47 - 61:13)

• Memorable Moment: A lengthy, humorous digression on a strange Jerry Dipoto quote tying the day of a trade to his wedding anniversary and Groundhog Day (“It was a good day, like most other Groundhog Days in my adult life.”)
• Hosts try to parse its meaning, repeatedly circling back in confusion and laughter.
• Quote: "What does this mean, most other groundhog days in my adult life? What, Ben, what does it mean?" — Craig Calcaterra [58:41]

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7. White Sox Moves and Strategy (63:10 - 69:22)

• Transactions: Signing OF Austin Hays and a salary-taking reliever move (Jordan Hicks) for prospect David Sandlin.
• Interpretation: Debate whether these are shrewd “flip for prospects” moves or signals the White Sox see a coming window with a young core, though projected playoff odds still bleak.
• Quotes:
  • "Maybe it's a avoid a grievance or maintain revenue sharing status sort of move. Maybe that's all that's happening here or some combination of all of the above." — Meg Rowley [66:31]
  • "I like Chicago’s winter, man. I mean, not the winter in Chicago—that seems like it has been quite cold and unpleasant—but the offseason that they have put together..." — Craig Calcaterra [68:03]

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8. FanGraphs Playoff Odds: Notable Reactions (69:31 - 78:14)

• Big Picture: Dodgers way ahead (projected 99.5 wins); AL East projected as a bloodbath with four teams above 50% playoff odds; Pirates surprisingly respectable (82 wins, 37.5% playoff chance).
• Underrated Teams: Brewers and Guardians continue to “break” projections.
• Fun Facts: Dan Szymborski’s exercise combining worst teams’ rosters to match Dodgers’ strength.
• Quotes:
  • "I have been surprised that there has not been more of a reaction to the Dodgers projection..." — Craig Calcaterra [69:48]
  • "Look at those respectable looking Pittsburgh Pirates—82 and 80." — Craig Calcaterra [71:45]

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9. Quirk Corner: Clubhouse Bidets (78:27 - 81:46)

• White Sox installing bidets in their clubhouse, prompted by new signing Munetaka Murakami’s visit, mirroring a similar demand by Roki Sasaki in LA.
• Hosts discuss the trend and joke about how bidets might influence player signings and want to know what Bryce Harper thinks of bidets.

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10. Historical Segment: 150th Anniversary of the National League (81:54 - 100:43)

With Guest Richard Hershberger (Baseball Historian)

• Topic: The origin of the NL in 1876—why it replaced the National Association, wheeling and dealing, shenanigans, and founding figures like William Hulbert.
• Key Insight: The NL’s longevity is due to its willingness to adapt and some luck; the game's survival is a testament to baseball itself outlasting a century of “rat bastards.”
• Quotes:
  • "They were there to make a buck... but there was also a sense of building the game, that the game itself had intrinsic value." — Richard Hershberger [91:12]
  • "I am a big believer that the proof of what a great game baseball is is that it survives the owners." — Richard Hershberger [100:43]

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11. Closing Updates (101:00 - End)

• Prediction Markets: The CFTC announces new rules are coming.
• MLB Broadcast Rights: More teams to be networked under MLB’s umbrella, with revenue still down, possibly influencing futures and labor discussions.
• MLB Salaries: Average up again, but wage growth slowing; fan-submitted deep dive into actual vs. “deserved” career earnings for players (full data available in show notes).

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Notable Quotes by Time

• Ben Lindbergh [00:39]: “You know, I don't say this often, but I have to hand it to MLB owners because they have done a decent job of staying out of the Epstein files.”
• Meg Rowley [22:09]: “We can be clear eyed about what he was worth. But I think as long as you don't oversell it and maybe some did, we could still celebrate him.”
• Craig Calcaterra [35:22]: “I can't get fussed about a one year $15 million deal, and I have more confidence in the ceiling that Suarez presents to the Reds than I do that Arraez presents to the Giants.”
• Meg Rowley [48:58]: “I think that it's a pretty elegant piece of roster construction.”
• Craig Calcaterra [58:41]: “What does this mean, most other groundhog days in my adult life? What, Ben, what does it mean?”
• Richard Hershberger [100:43]: “I am a big believer that the proof of what a great game baseball is is that it survives the owners.”

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Episode Structure & Flow

• The episode transitions fluidly from quirky banter to serious statistical analysis, covering the latest news and digging into issues both on- and off-field.
• The tone remains analytical yet irreverent, with plenty of inside jokes and meta-commentary on the game, fandom, and even the podcast’s own history.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Epstein Files & Baseball: [00:40 – 04:32]
• Season Preview Series & FanGraphs Odds: [04:33 – 09:39]
• WBC Insurance Controversy: [09:39 – 18:22]
• Luis Arraez to Giants: [19:46 – 27:38]
• Eugenio Suárez to Reds: [28:30 – 36:08]
• Brendan Donovan/Three-Team Trade: [39:08 – 55:58]
• Dipoto Groundhog Day: [56:47 – 61:13]
• White Sox Activity: [63:10 – 69:22]
• FanGraphs Playoff Odds: [69:31 – 78:14]
• Bidets and Clubhouse Upgrades: [78:27 – 81:46]
• National League 150th with Richard Hershberger: [81:54 – 100:43]
• Closing Updates: [101:00 – end]

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For Further Exploration

• Spreadsheet of “Deserved” MLB Player Salaries (as referenced in the episode): [Linked in show notes]
• FanGraphs Playoff Odds: [FanGraphs.com]

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Next Episode: Astros and Diamondbacks 2026 season previews.

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Effectively Wild: "A strange but good hang."

Transcript

[Ben Lindbergh]

Have a catch in the slog with me In a virtual rise from small sample size these fun facts must lie it's effectively wild A strange but good hang Effectively wild.

[Meg Rowley]

Hello and welcome to episode 2435 of.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Effect Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from FanGraphs, presented by our Patreon supporters.

[Meg Rowley]

I am Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer, joined by Meg Rally of fangraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You know, I don't say this often, but I have to hand it to.

[Meg Rowley]

MLB owners because they have done a.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Decent job of staying out of the Epstein files.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Oh my God. Oh my God, Ben.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But you didn't see that coming. But it's true.

[Craig Calcaterra]

You know, I should have. I should have seen it coming because what other circumstance would we possibly make.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Me hand it to them.

[Craig Calcaterra]

I've handed it to them. Other than not being implicated with Epstein.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, they aren't in there, evidently. I mean, I haven't personally perused the millions of files released in the latest batch, but there is a handy dandy aggregator at front Office Sports that has headlined all the sports figures in the latest Epstein emails and they're updating it as others come to light.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And you know, not a lot of baseball in there.

[Meg Rowley]

I have to say there's a stray Sammy Sosa mention. Yeah. Because Sammy Sosa evidently attended a party.

[Ben Lindbergh]

In the Hamptons 20 years or so ago that was attended by Epstein and Donald Trump.

[Meg Rowley]

But beyond that, there are some baseball adjacent figures. One of the sports figures who was implicated in this latest release is Casey Wasserman, who is best known for being the chair of the organizing committee for the LA Olympics, but also founded and is the CEO of the Wasserman Agency.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That represents a lot of athletes and also baseball players. But really like a lot of other.

[Meg Rowley]

Sports owners and prominent figures are in there with various degrees of this is kind of concerning to cringy to maybe he was just emailing them and they actually wanted nothing to do with him. But they're in there anyway. And you know, ranging from Steve Tisch, who is the Giants co owner and chairman, who is in there the most in the most unsavory way. And the NFL is investigating that now.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But Rob Manfred has not had to issue a statement about how he is investigating any of the people that he works for because evidently they're not in there or if they are, it just hasn't really come to light. So, you know, it's a low bar.

[Craig Calcaterra]

To clear, but an important one to clear. You know, of.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Of all the celebrities and prominent people and government Figures, just not a lot of baseball.

[Meg Rowley]

And so we can not say that these are baseball Epstein files, I think.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And, you know, that's good. And I don't know why. I don't know what to attribute that to. It does seem that maybe Epstein just.

[Meg Rowley]

Wasn'T a baseball guy, which, you know, happy not to have had him.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Oh, God.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So maybe it's that.

[Meg Rowley]

That he was just not seeking out baseball figures to curry favor with them.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The. That he was with other sports figures.

[Meg Rowley]

That he was either more interested in or just thought were more powerful. Just movers and shakers or whatever. Maybe this is a sign of. Of baseball's fallen status in the culture.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You know, he. Someone who just was always kind of trying to curry favor with powerful people in society. Just baseball was beneath his notice. Who knows?

[Meg Rowley]

But for whatever reason, I have not.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Had to consider and contemplate connections to.

[Meg Rowley]

Jeffrey Epstein and baseball.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And, you know, we take our wins.

[Meg Rowley]

Where we can get them, I guess.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah, I suppose so. Suppose so.

[Meg Rowley]

Beyond that, we don't often have to hand it to MLP owners, but on.

[Craig Calcaterra]

That score, I didn't know where you were going with it. And shame on me, really, for not being able to anticipate it, given the primacy of the tish news and in the news. But wow, what a time to be alive, man. What a time.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So we have some transactions to discuss.

[Meg Rowley]

We have playoff odds at fan graphs unveiled this week. And what a perfect time because we are about to embark on our season preview series.

[Craig Calcaterra]

That's right.

[Meg Rowley]

And, you know, players are about to report. Pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, podcasters reporting to team previews. It's almost time. We're getting some blurry photos from afar.

[Craig Calcaterra]

That's right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Through fences, just proof of life photos of players in Florida andor Arizona. So it's that time.

[Meg Rowley]

And I know that it's sort of a rite of spring and a signal.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That baseball is returning, that the effectively.

[Meg Rowley]

Wild season preview series also kicks into gear. So next time, we will be embarking on the umpteenth annual season preview series. And. And that'll take us through mid March, and we will wrap up before opening day.

[Craig Calcaterra]

I'm going to defeat the purpose of my own question by asking it. But what. What player do you anticipate being the most surprised is on the team he's currently employed by?

[Meg Rowley]

Oh, you mean that I will have.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Forgotten that he's there?

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Where you're like, oh, my. You know, because we. I like to think that we do. How do I put this, the appropriate amount of prep for this podcast every single time we go out tend to do, at least in my experience, a good bit more prep for the previews because, you know, we, we need to have a sense of the, the relevant changes to the team. The, the guys who've emerged, the guys who've been traded and reliably. I'll be like, oh my God, that's right. They did, they did trade for that guy. The, the transactions, the, like, the, the signings, I feel like sneak up on me less often. Like I, I had the experience not too long ago and this will sort of dovetail with one of the transactions that we will. I was reminded in the context of editing the, the Brendan Donovan trade reaction piece that Ben Clemons put together for us that Wilson Contreras is a red Sock, you know, red soccer. Yeah, I, I, I have such affection for Sam and he gets so many things right, but that one is not landing for me. I got to tell you. I, Red soccer. No, no, because it sounds like boxer.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Sockser, like a Bobby sockser, Red Soxer.

[Craig Calcaterra]

No. Like why would that be better? I mean, allow me to cast about.

[Meg Rowley]

No.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, we got a Patreon email from.

[Meg Rowley]

Supporter Jeff who suggested Jeff, but no, and I guess other people have said sockser, so you could do that. But.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Well, have they and felt good about it, you know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, I don't know if they felt good about it.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Craig Calcaterra]

But yeah, I was like, oh yeah, Wilson Contreras now shout shipping up to Boston or probably shipped and then down to Florida at this point. But yeah, it's illuminating for all of us, I think is the point.

[Meg Rowley]

Well, yeah, I guess if I could.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Anticipate which player will most surprise me.

[Meg Rowley]

Then it wouldn't surprise me because I would already be aware of it. So we'll all find out together. And for those who have been with.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Us for previous previews, it will be the same more or less a lot of the returning previewers, same sort of format. For those who have not been with.

[Meg Rowley]

Us before, it'll be 15 episodes, two teams per preview pod. And we will start. I always say we follow the middle out method and so we use those fan graphs, playoff odds.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And we, we start with the most mid teams, the teams that are just projected to be smack dab in the.

[Meg Rowley]

Middle and we work our way to the extremes and we end up inevitably with the Dodgers and the Rockies, the final one.

[Craig Calcaterra]

So we will do wind once again.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yep. And we will talk to many of.

[Meg Rowley]

Our regulars, but typically beat writers, people who are covering teams in some sort of journalistic, in person, on the ground fashion. And we will get reports from camp when camps begin and we will ask people what would constitute success in this coming season.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And, well, most of you know the.

[Meg Rowley]

Drill, so we will do that again.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And yeah, it's a, you know, bit of a grind, but I think it's good. It gets us up to speed. It gets our listeners up to speed. There's a little less time for nonsense, perhaps when we are previewing. It's a little more meat and potatoes perhaps, but maybe people have reached their nonsense quota by the end of the off season or at least by February. So it's good, I think, also to onboard people for the podcast. People find us that way. They're looking for primers, something to get.

[Meg Rowley]

Up to speed or people who are.

[Ben Lindbergh]

On to preview a team, promote it to their audience. And then people find us and they.

[Meg Rowley]

Think that we're just a normal baseball podcast that just talks about baseball all the time. And then they're much surprised perhaps later on when we get weirds, but effectively, wow, it contains multitudes. So we'll be doing that next time and for the next six weeks or so. It's a good way also to fill the slow news days that tend to pile up late in the off season.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, so a few other things. We are getting the official unveiling of World Baseball Classic rosters this week.

[Meg Rowley]

And of course, most of that news has dribbled out one way or another. But I think rosters have to be submitted today. We're recording on Tuesday and then they'll be announced officially on Thursday. And I'll probably do some sort of.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Statistical comparison or we'll do some sort.

[Meg Rowley]

Of deep dive into the rosters versus past WBCs. The only negative note here is that as we recording at least there are.

[Ben Lindbergh]

A number of players who will be sidelined due to intrigue, insurance issues and.

[Meg Rowley]

Potentially an entire team. Yeah, Team Puerto Rico is, is kind of TBD right now. Yeah. Because something like 8 to 10 of their players are at risk of being denied coverage. And, and they don't want to put out sort of a subpar, lackluster squad out there. So stars like Francisco Lindor was evidently denied coverage because he had a couple minor surgeries on his elbow.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But he's healthy. He's expected to be ready for spring training.

[Meg Rowley]

He could play.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And evidently there is a piece about this at the Athletic by the Woodward and Bernstein crew of Rosenthal and Drelic. The sign stealing, the banging scheme breakers.

[Meg Rowley]

And they're on the case with the.

[Ben Lindbergh]

WBC insurance issues, too. And they write the heightened insurance concerns stem from injuries to Jose Altuve and Edwin Diaz. Diaz, by the way, is coming back for more.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

So he's not dissuaded personally. Maybe he will be celebrating in a slightly more restrained fashion. But.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But he's signing up for another tour of duty during the last WBC in 2023, which created aftershocks that will lead to fewer star players on the field.

[Meg Rowley]

In Major League Baseball's international tournament this spring.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Since the last tournament, insurance for major league players has grown considerably more expensive, and the league's insurer has become more.

[Meg Rowley]

Stringent about which players it approves. People briefed on the underwriting process, who authorized to speak publicly said, we get.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Emails sometimes from people who just want.

[Meg Rowley]

Us to shed a little light on insurance in baseball in general.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I wish we could. I'd like to, because it's all very inscrutable to me too. It's just you don't tend to see a ton of details reported.

[Meg Rowley]

But I would like at some point if we could get an underwriter or someone who has been involved in that area of things and could sort of school us on it because it's, it's.

[Ben Lindbergh]

A pretty important part of the business.

[Meg Rowley]

Of baseball that is not often really in public view. But Carlos Correa, Jose Barrios, Victor Caratini, these are other Puerto Rican players who at least were not cleared to play initially.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Their cases are still under review. I'm hoping that some of these players will be able to participate and then it will kind of come together at the last minute here.

[Meg Rowley]

But obviously it would, it would be a huge loss not to have a team Puerto Rico or to have a much diminished one. And I don't really understand exactly why this is the case.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's. It's National Financial Partners is the official partner of MLB that brokers the insurance policy. And they declined comment and MLB declined comment and the PA declined comment, I guess.

[Meg Rowley]

Or they're lobbying the insurer to change.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Some of the decisions. MLB and the pa. So maybe it's out of their hands to some extent, but I don't know why the coverage would have become much more expensive since 2023.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay. Yeah, there were Diaz and Altuve. They're always some cases of players getting hurt, but I don't know whether it was more than before. Maybe it was just more notable instances. I, I wrote several years ago and I did a little study and I tried to find any backing for that prevailing at the time perception that the.

[Ben Lindbergh]

WBC increased injury risk. And I couldn't at the time find any support for that idea because we.

[Meg Rowley]

Know that players just in regular spring training camps often get hurt. It's like the peak injury time for pitchers as they ramp up and guys.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Come back from a long offse season.

[Meg Rowley]

And maybe their elbows were barking late.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Last year and they thought, oh well, we'll give it an off season to rest.

[Meg Rowley]

And then they start stretching out again and they realize, nope, actually it didn't heal itself. And, and now I'm sort of screwed. You know, people spraying, it's like peak springing season, sadly.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So I don't know why it would.

[Meg Rowley]

Have been increased aside from maybe a couple notable examples or just people paying.

[Ben Lindbergh]

More attention to the WBC because it was so popular last time around.

[Craig Calcaterra]

I also just the concentration on a particular team is the thing that I find kind of flummoxing. Like I understand, I mean Diaz is playing. It's not like some of the, some of the guys who had like the worst go have have been able to get insurance. And so I don't know, I don't know how to account for that. Now. Maybe in his case it was because it wasn't his arm.

[Meg Rowley]

Right. But why would it make you worried about other people then?

[Ben Lindbergh]

If, if he's, if the story is suggesting that his injury played some part in this, then if he's getting coverage.

[Meg Rowley]

And also he had kind of a freak accident. So yeah, I don't get it. The story behind yeah, the insurance policy.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Pays back the major league club for.

[Meg Rowley]

A player's salary if the player gets hurt. During the wbc, players are not at risk of losing their salaries.

[Ben Lindbergh]

For approved position players, the insurance covers 100% of their salary for two years. For pitchers it's four years. No cap exists for how much salary can be covered in total across mlb, a source said, emphasizing there is not a game of musical chairs in which one player's insurance approval could reduce the chances of another's.

[Meg Rowley]

It says trips to the 60 day.

[Ben Lindbergh]

IL and recent surgeries are typically disqualifying.

[Meg Rowley]

But it's kind of case by case.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And yeah, there are plenty of players.

[Meg Rowley]

Who did have recent injuries or surgeries.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Who did get cleared to play.

[Meg Rowley]

So it does seem Ohtani, for instance, is hitting but not pitching, right? Yeah. So maybe he's not cleared to pitch because of insurance.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It suggests.

[Meg Rowley]

But then Miguel Rojas, who is Venezuelan.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He did not get coverage. He, I'm quoting again echoed Saturday, a sentiment raised by some in the Puerto.

[Meg Rowley]

Rican media that the process is inconsistent and US and Japanese players are being treated differently.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Right.

[Meg Rowley]

I'm not trying to attack anybody or attack what's going on, but if I can still play in the big leagues for the Dodgers, why am I not going to play for my team in Venezuela and represent my country? And I guess in his case so.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He turns 37 and it says the.

[Meg Rowley]

Insurance does not cover players once they are 37.

[Ben Lindbergh]

A difference from previous WBCs. So yeah, 37 ancient, just too high a risk. The actuarial tables, you know, we're, we're.

[Meg Rowley]

Basically at death's door, the two of us.

[Ben Lindbergh]

We could not possibly get coverage for WBC rosters. So if you're 37 or close to 37, then that's a possibility.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Close.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I guess, like anyway, I wish this weren't the case and this is not unprecedented. Remember Clayton Kershaw wanted to pitch last time and he didn't get coverage and.

[Meg Rowley]

Now I guess he can just do what he wants because he's quasi retired, he doesn't have a major league team so he can just play even though he's older than 37. But I guess no salary it's is at stake for him or for his team but. Or he is 37.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I guess he's about to turn 38.

[Meg Rowley]

Positively ancient. Anyway, I hope some of this gets straightened out.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's. It's disappointing for the players because there's.

[Meg Rowley]

Just so much pro WBC sentiment now.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And it's also disappointing for fans especially as we see the US squad have.

[Meg Rowley]

Way more pitchers than ever before. And it seems like everyone's sort of sending their best if they are allowed.

[Ben Lindbergh]

To, but now some of them are just disqualified.

[Meg Rowley]

So yeah, I don't want that to be the case.

[Craig Calcaterra]

It does seem like a real shame. And like I don't want to allege that there's like some sort of systemic thing that's letting all the Americans through and all the Japanese players as if there's some sort of conspiracy. And I know that these sorts of things probably don't factor for them, but it's like no, like it probably now more than ever feeling like it's a, both a representative competition and like a truly global one. And obviously like there are differences in the political situation to Venezuela than there is with like Puerto Rico where those guys were American citizens. But I just, you know, hey insurance guys, we got other stuff going on. Why don't you pay some attention to the other stuff, let that guide the way here. Because of course like the the, the instinct that I think a lot of people had before the insurance of it all got revealed was like, is there something going on here? And so that's lousy.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. I don't know, man.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I don't know how much latitude.

[Meg Rowley]

Say MLB would have to incur this risk.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Can they self, can they basically self insure?

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, just say we'll take the risk because we are trying to. And I guess, you know, it says at MLB and the players association co owners of the tournament are lobbying the insurer to change some decisions. But if they can't get them to, then I wonder how much freedom they might have just to be able to say, I guess for individual teams, maybe there's not as much benefit to say, taking on that risk, but for the league itself to promote the product of.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The WBC and its players, then I wonder whether they could just kind of foot the bill for that if they were willing to, or what that would cost.

[Meg Rowley]

But we'll see how it shakes out. Maybe we will have an update next time.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And we do have some transactions to discuss also.

[Meg Rowley]

I should have mentioned this earlier, but we'll have a little pass blast at.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The end of this episode, bringing back the past blast and our past past blaster Richard Hirshberger to mark the 150th anniversary of the National League, which just happened on Tuesday.

[Meg Rowley]

So we'll talk a little bit about the founding of the league and how it has endured all of these years.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But let's talk about a player who just signed with a National League team, actually a few of them. And maybe we can begin with Luisa Rice.

[Meg Rowley]

Luis Rice is a San Francisco Giants now. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And there had been some suggestion that maybe the Giants would acquire Brendan Donovan.

[Meg Rowley]

But no, the Mariners have acquired Brendan Donovan and before that happened, the Giants filled their hole and it, it was a pretty glaring hole at second base.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Just apologies to Casey Schmidt, but it.

[Meg Rowley]

Was one of the weaker projected positions for a team that was anywhere close to contention.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And now they have filled that hole with a rise. Although that does depend on him actually playing second base.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Right.

[Meg Rowley]

Which he has not done well for a while. Well, hasn't done for a while. Hasn't done well maybe ever. I don't, I don't know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But they now project to be 17th.

[Meg Rowley]

Best at second base, which is an improvement, I suppose.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I don't know why every bit of Louisa rise news needs to be some kind of culture war. I don't know really why he provokes.

[Meg Rowley]

These strong reactions in people. I guess I know why, but I just, I wish it weren't the case anymore.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But it seems like we should have.

[Meg Rowley]

Moved beyond that maybe because when he.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Was at his best he was a.

[Meg Rowley]

Good and valuable player and it was kind of confusing because he just didn't fit the mold of a modern major leaguer.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I wrote as much.

[Meg Rowley]

I did a feature on him and how he was viewed as a prospect and why he wasn't a top 100.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Guy and what if anything, scouts could learn from an outlier like him. But in 2022, 2023, when he was.

[Meg Rowley]

A 130 WRC plus guy and something like a three win player, then he.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Was fun and also good and maybe overrated in some quarters just because the batting titles and the high average and just the general old school, we wanted one to look like Luisa R. And.

[Meg Rowley]

So maybe that led to some pumping.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Up of a rise in some quarters and then other people hastening to say well, he's overrated because it's kind of an empty ish average or there's not a ton of pop there and maybe there was an over correction there because at that point he actually was a pretty good player. Right. And also why do we need to rain on everyone's parade Because Luis Rice.

[Meg Rowley]

Ruled like he was awesome, he was.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Fun, like I, I want more players like that.

[Meg Rowley]

We can be clear eyed about what he was worth. But I think as long as you.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Don'T oversell it and maybe some did.

[Meg Rowley]

We could still celebrate him. You know, we could all come together and bond over enjoying Luis arise.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And now I guess it's kind of complicated because he still hits for a.

[Meg Rowley]

High average or high ish average. He failed to win a batting title for the first time in a few years last year, but he still hit.292.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Which is a high average in this.

[Meg Rowley]

Day and age, but with the usual lack of walks and an even more extreme lack of power than in some seasons. So if he's slugging sub.400 and he's on basing.330 or less and he is not good defensively around the bases, He's.

[Ben Lindbergh]

A limited player and you know, kind of one dimensional. It's a really cool quirky dimension and.

[Meg Rowley]

And I enjoy that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But anyway, I think he's an upgrade.

[Meg Rowley]

For the Giants, but also it's still not a strength for them because especially if they're forcing the square peg into the round hole of second base given his defensive limitations.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, they're going to be some drawbacks there.

[Meg Rowley]

So unless the Bat really rebounds then. I mean, he's been a one win player the past couple years, so that's not exactly what you want either though. He's. He's projected to be a bit better than that.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah. I think that our projections are. Are generally optimistic about there being a little bit of a bounce back there. I think it's fine. You know, I. I struggle to get too exercised about a one year, what, $15 million deal.

[Meg Rowley]

I think it's. Was it even that it was 12? Yeah.

[Craig Calcaterra]

12.

[Meg Rowley]

12 million.

[Craig Calcaterra]

12. Ben. Why did I think it was 15? Why did I think it was 15.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maybe you were thinking of Eugenio Suarez who signed.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Maybe I was thinking of Eugeniosares. In fact, I think I probably was. I think I did a little. I did a little cross in my brain. Yeah, I think it's fine. I think that you're right to say that there is like weird, always weird baggage associated with discussing this guy. There is something sort of like galaxy brained about signing arise to play his home games in that park that I like. It's like, well, doesn't matter that I don't hit home runs. How many people hit home runs in this ballpark anyway? You know what I mean? Like just there, there is something that is kind of cozy about the fit for him with that park. I think that you're right to say that he is not going to like win a Gold Glove out there in all likelihood. But I think compared to their available options, certainly an upgrade. They can kind of live to fight another day and see what they have a year later. So I think it's. I think it's fine.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. I'm looking at his advanced stats and it's been a while since he played second regularly, but 2023 was the last time he did. You got me.

[Craig Calcaterra]

He was always waiting. I'm always waiting.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You're always ready to pounce a beat.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Longer to respond to a question from you than you would expect. It's because I was processing. Is there an opportunity for an it's been a while joke in there? That's why.

[Meg Rowley]

And there was.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And you found it didn't pass you by. Yeah. It's like you want to be selectively.

[Meg Rowley]

Aggressive, I guess with the it's been a while opportunities. It's like you don't.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You don't want to cook to just.

[Meg Rowley]

Pass you down the middle of the plate when.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Right there.

[Meg Rowley]

I just leave it up there.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You're ready to. Ready to swing.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so is Luisa Rice generally, sometimes to his detriment. So, so I think he's taken the.

[Meg Rowley]

Contact stuff perhaps too far.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And Sam has written about that, Dan Zyborski has written about that.

[Meg Rowley]

Maybe there's a happy medium where he could maybe not prioritize swinging and making.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Contact with absolutely everything, because even though he often can make contact with it.

[Meg Rowley]

It is not always to his benefit. Yeah. The last time he played second regularly in Miami in 2023, Statcast had him at negative eight, but DRS had him at plus four.

[Craig Calcaterra]

So who's to say he's not a plus second baseman? He's never really been a plus second baseman. He struggles, you know, when he's at first base. He isn't great to his right. He's worse coming in at second. He doesn't have a strong arm as part of the problem here. I don't think he's unplayable at the position. They have hamstrung themselves in terms of their defensive flexibility because, like, they already have a DH and they have a first baseman, so they're not going to be able to necessarily do much there. But as Jay Jaffe pointed out in his piece on this, I think. Didn't the Giants hire Ron Washington? Yeah, so Wash can, you know, maybe Wash can get him sorted. You know, Wash can help him out. Maybe he can.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's easy.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah, right. It's easy. But I, I think that, you know, when you're looking at his metrics over the last couple of seasons, whether it's at first base or second, as Chain noted, he had a couple of like, games at third and in 2020 with Minnesota, but hasn't played there in a number of years. They won't play him at third. It's not good. It's below average, but I don't think it's unplayable. So, you know, they'll kind of roll the dice and see what they got. And it's not as if there aren't other capable defenders on that infield. So I think that some of this might be like, surely, surely Chappie and Willie Adamus will be able to bail him out if need be. You know, there's probably something to that line of thinking. So I think it's fine.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, well, first base, not that hard.

[Meg Rowley]

We'll see if second base is not that hard or incredibly hard. And what Wash will say, evidently he really wanted to play second base because it was reported that he passed up multi year offers from other teams because.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He wanted to be at the Keystone.

[Meg Rowley]

So we'll see how that goes.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I guess it, it fits into the.

[Meg Rowley]

General vibe of Giants moves. Just not a lot of impact players coming into that team this off season and not a lot of moves that you think, ah, this will catapult them above the.500 region where they have been.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So stubbornly stuck for a few years now.

[Craig Calcaterra]

But.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But at least you might have some.

[Meg Rowley]

Fun watching an outlier in this era in Luis arise. Okay, well, I guess we can talk about that other infielder who did sign the one year $15 million deal with the Reds.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Hey, we got a chance to talk about the Reds. We talked last week about teams that.

[Meg Rowley]

We hadn't had much opportunity to talk about and teams that had had disappointing.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Off seasons and we mentioned the Reds. We also talked about maybe the Mariners.

[Meg Rowley]

We considered whether they should be considered.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Disappointing and maybe we lit a fire under those front offices.

[Craig Calcaterra]

All it takes is the phrase load bearing Ben Williamson and then Justin and Jerry are like, ah, we gotta hop to on that one. No, I All reporting suggests that this deal took a shockingly long time to get done and has been in the works for quite some time.

[Meg Rowley]

Yes, yes, we can talk about the circumstances of the three team trade, but yeah, Gino is leaving Seattle and continuing.

[Ben Lindbergh]

His reunion tour just playing with all the teams that he has previously played for.

[Meg Rowley]

Who was it who said on Blue sky or somewhere that he just needs now to go back to the Tigers and he will complete his palindromic career because he went from the Tigers to.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The Reds to the Mariners to the.

[Meg Rowley]

Diamondbacks and then he went back to the Mariners. Gosh, I'm losing track of all the different places. Yeah, and then he was still in.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The Diamondbacks and then he went back to the Mariners and now he's going back to the Reds.

[Meg Rowley]

So he needs to. Yeah, somehow he has to go back to the Tigers at some point. That would be nice.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Anyway, he signed a deal that is.

[Meg Rowley]

Significantly below what he was predicted to sign for. And this was a windfall for you in the free agent contracts over underdraft.

[Craig Calcaterra]

I feel bad though.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This thing's. It's not over yet. We kind of thought it was maybe over after the big blows because I.

[Meg Rowley]

Had the under on Tucker at 400 and then King Tuck Tuck ever blasting.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He signed for that short term deal.

[Meg Rowley]

And that was a huge boon to my team.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But now you have really narrowed the gap here. And you had the under on MLB trade rumors.

[Meg Rowley]

Prediction of 80 million.

[Ben Lindbergh]

No, 80 million. You had the under for Zach Allen.

[Meg Rowley]

That's still in play.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, Suarez, you had the under on.

[Meg Rowley]

63 so with 15 guaranteed plus the, the $10 million bonus for being directionally right, you get a 58 million added to your total there. And you're now at 197 on the winter and I'm at 238.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So you're making me sweat here. Suddenly I, I thought I was out.

[Meg Rowley]

Of reach, but now, I mean, this is.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You're still within striking distance because we each have one player still on the board.

[Meg Rowley]

I have the under on Justin Verlander, which even if that hits, it's, it's not going to be big because he was predicted at 22 and I could even go in the wrong direction possibly. And you still have the under on.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Gallon at 80 and we're separated by 41 million. So if, if Gallen similarly settles for.

[Meg Rowley]

A short term deal, some sort of pillow arrangement.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Trampoline, you could actually take the lead here.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So this might be quite a topsy turvy draft.

[Meg Rowley]

We will see.

[Craig Calcaterra]

It has been, it has, it has moved in several directions over its course.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But I guess the more important ramifications or implications here is why he signed.

[Meg Rowley]

Such a deal and where he signed it there is of course a mutual option with a small buyout. So, you know, he gets the guaranteed buyout, I guess. But I'm glad that the Reds did something. But why do you think Suarez settled for such a comparatively small deal coming off of a season where he hit 49 dingers?

[Craig Calcaterra]

He hit 49 dingers. I'm sure that teams are smart enough to know that some portion of his struggle in the second half might have been just that T mobile is a difficult place to hit. But you know, AO honey O did AO honey oh stuff where he was on fire. He was a super desirable trade deadline target. He had a pretty underwhelming second half with Seattle. I think he had a 91 WRC plus for them. So I think that the volatility attendant in his profile, regardless of where he was in his career age wise, was is always going to be something that kind of gives teams pause. And then I think that when you are getting to the age that he is, you worry about the cliff. Right. Like, is this a temporary trough? Is this part of the ebb and flow of his season? And you know, sure, there are going to be times when it's frustrating and you wish that he could reliably make contact and even just move the, the line along, but you look at his season in the aggregate and you're like, well, that's a great hitter. You know, and that was, that's a super useful bet. And a bat that we know plays in that ballpark and a bat that, you know, the Reds need like, they need more thumpers. They could have used a couple more 125 WRC plus guys last year. So you wonder, oh, maybe this is, or maybe it's the start of the, of the fall for him. You know, maybe this is the decline that doesn't arrest itself and that we, you know, you don't see the bounce back. He's fascinating because like in 2024 he really was close to being non tendered, like cut in the middle of the season by the Diamondbacks because the first half was so bad for him. And then, you know, things turned around and he had this really hot second half and like they, I mean they almost like made the playoffs on the strength of, of his performance and you know, the fact that everybody else in that lineup started hitting. But it's like you look at his 2024 and you're like, why don't you look at his 2025? But I just want to highlight the extremity here. Like in 2024, his monthly WRC pluses went 87, 39, 67 and then 202, 110, 181. Right. The contrast was an 87 versus a 154 in the second half. And so he's always been super streaky and the power is undeniable. But like he's swinging and missing more. He's swinging just more generally. You can look at the contact profile and see, see where the decline might come. And he's, you know, we, I just talked about how you look at a rise and just because he's below average now doesn't mean he's unplayable. I think that Aohenio fits into a sort of the similar, a similar bucket where like he's not an especially great defender at third base. I think you can stick him there and it would be fine. The Reds don't have to worry about that. They'll just DH him. They have a Cabrian, Hayes. He's a phenomenal defender. If they could like do mad science stuff and mush them into one player, well, you'd still have a guy with contact issues, but one who hits 49 home runs and plays a plus third base. Terrific. But so, so like, I think he's a good fit and just like, I don't, I can't get fussed about a one year $12 million deal. I, I really can't get fussed about a one year, $15 million deal, and I have more confidence in the ceiling that Suarez presents to the Reds than I do that arise presents to the Giants. So, yeah, I think it's fine. But, like, I'm not surprised that he underperformed relative to expectation. I'm a little surprised that he underperformed this dramatically. But I think that you can look at this guy and be like, well, you know, he's going to be 35 in July, and you just don't know, like, how, what the sort of totality of the production is going to be, never mind its shape. And, you know, these things happen.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So, yeah, I remember talking to you before the deadline last year.

[Meg Rowley]

I think it was before the deadline, and we were talking about how Suarez was maybe the best bat available. But also I think we said, well, would you be surprised if he just was not an impact player?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Like, if you need a bat, he's the best one out there. You gotta go get him. But also, would it surprise you if he just sort of slumped and didn't add that much after the deadline? And that is essentially what happened. So that is a risk.

[Meg Rowley]

You know, I haven't quantified whether he's more volatile than the typical player, but it does sort of seem that way. It's like, you know, look at his ALDS and his ALCS last year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Obviously it's five games.

[Meg Rowley]

It's seven games.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Anyone can be cold one week and hot the other week, but it was kind of the Eugenio experience, I guess, encapsulated.374 ops in the ALDS and the.956 ops and the ALCS. So he can, he can do both, unfortunately.

[Craig Calcaterra]

He can definitely do both.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So he's 34.

[Meg Rowley]

Arizona's still only 28. So, yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I guess with, with Suarez, it's.

[Meg Rowley]

Like, has he kind of maxed out the old player approach and he already just, he pulls everything and tries to yank it over the fence, and he's done that well. But maybe there's. There's nowhere for him to go, really. But down or no other way for him to compensate for declining skills from here.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But. But that's okay on this kind of deal, if his skills do decline, he's been, as much as we're saying he's kind of volatile.

[Meg Rowley]

He. Here are his war totals over the past four years. 4.3, 3.5, 3.8, 3.8.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So in another way, a very important way, he's not at all inconsistent. So if he were just A three.

[Meg Rowley]

Win player or a two win player for that matter. He would be well worth it on this kind of contract.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And he does just add some extra oomph to the Reds, a team that's.

[Meg Rowley]

Close enough to contention.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They squeaked into the playoffs last year.

[Meg Rowley]

They absolutely should be signing people and spending some money. So I like it for them.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah. And like, you know, by all accounts, just like tremendous clubhouse guy, great hair, as you've covered. Oh, the hair, man. As long as he doesn't go back to the black and white cookie look. I didn't care for that one. I thought that looked a little bit. I mean, like, be bold. Aohenio. But you just have such beautiful hair, you know, it's like really something. Grow it out, let it be. You know, I think he was on my list of guys who look like they could credibly star in our in a reboot of the three musketeers, in part because of the hair. And it's important for the Reds to have one of those guys because, you know, they used to have Jonathan India to fill that need and then they traded him. So, like, who's going to tell you you're going to save the king? That's what ao honey is for, you know, you need a oh, honey for that. So I like it. I am not bothered by it. And wish them well, you know.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And now the Mariners.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah. What did cherry the podo do? What did Cherry the podo do?

[Meg Rowley]

We're gonna talk to bed. Rally out a trade or two is.

[Ben Lindbergh]

What did Jerry depot do? They have replaced the bat. They have upgraded themselves at an infield corner at third base. They have brought in Brendan Donovan not.

[Meg Rowley]

Only at third base. He can play a bunch of positions.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's part of the fun of Brendan Donovan.

[Meg Rowley]

But the Cardinals obviously tearing down, shipping people out to Contreras.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, Contreras, as mentioned earlier, and Sonny Gray. Also to Boston and to Arizona.

[Meg Rowley]

And now Brendan Donovan. So Heim Bloom is just kind of.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Putting his stamp on the team by disassembling the team and just bringing in as many prospects as he can. And presumably that will pay dividends down the road. It has in Boston. He hasn't been around to reap the rewards, unfortunately for him. But the team has in his absence. So this is a three teamer and it involves the raised. And as John Becker of Fangraphs noted, three team trades almost always involve the race these days. They're the the three team specialists.

[Meg Rowley]

So John found that dating back to the 2023 to four off season, there have been six, three team trades and.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The Rays have been a part of five of them.

[Meg Rowley]

So this is clearly a raise thing in addition to just being perceived to.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Win trades in general. I think when Jonathan Mayo at MLB.

[Meg Rowley]

Did that piece, that survey of front.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Offices last month, maybe.

[Meg Rowley]

And who has the best farm system? The Dodgers. And who hoards prospects the most? The guardians. And who trades the best? I think the Rays were the most popular answer. I don't know how much of that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is inspired by the famous Sam Miller tweet.

[Meg Rowley]

Or I guess Sam Miller's famous tweet was inspired by the Rays winning trades or people thinking that they had won trades. And Sam actually reprised that tweet. I think just this week he did a callback on Blue sky to it. When this trade was announced, before we even knew the terms or what the.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Rays had given up or gotten.

[Meg Rowley]

Sam did love this trade for the Rays.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So the trade is the Mariners send the aforementioned infielder Ben Williamson to the.

[Meg Rowley]

Rays along with a couple of prospects.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Notably Durangelo saintja, who we should talk.

[Meg Rowley]

About a bit more.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He is the famous, well, formerly ambidextrous pitcher, maybe.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yes, still semi ambidextrous to the Cardinals. To be clear, the only player going to the raise in this deal is Ben Williamson.

[Meg Rowley]

Is Williamson. Yes. And Sanja and Ty Pete and a competitive balance round B pick going to the Cardinals. And then the Cardinals are shipping Donovan to the Mariners and then they're also.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Getting Colton Ledbetter from the Rays and a competitive balance pick.

[Meg Rowley]

So the Rays are just, they're getting Williamson and they're shipping out Ledbetter and the competitive balance pick. So yeah, so that's the deal.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And the headliner of course is Donovan.

[Meg Rowley]

So yeah, pretty good player.

[Ben Lindbergh]

What does he bring to Meg's Mariners?

[Craig Calcaterra]

I really like this deal. I gotta hand it to him, which is now a tainted phrase. Well, so most immediately he brings like a credible presence to third base. The Mariners have a really potentially interesting infield situation that they're sorting out. So before this deal they had Obviously Naylor at first base. They had J.P. crawford at short, they had Cole Young, likely to assume the starting second base job coming out of camp. He exhausted rookie eligibility last year, swooned at the plate, capable ish defender, didn't grade out great, but like, you know, getting his feet under him at the big level. And then the aforementioned load bearing Ben Williamson at third, who as I noted in our last episode, I think is a very nifty little defender, cannot seemingly hit a lick. So that felt underwhelming for a team that was so close to going to the World Series and that, you know, even even though it had retained Naylor still had what looked like a light offense. And I will tell you that when the Reds managed to sign a SUAREZ for only $15 million, Mariner social media, not the official team account, that would be weird, but its fans had a mini crash out as the kids would say about how well if it's only $15 million, why aren't you bringing a Eugenio back? And the answer is that they were trading for Brendan Donovan, who I think is certainly a more stable player in terms of the shape of his production, definitely more defensively versatile, doesn't have the kind of pop that Eohenio Suarez has, but is like a capable hitter. And I think as you know, as Ben noted in his write up of the deal, doesn't really strike out tremendous contact profile, un enough power that he's like a good singles and doubles hitter. And you know, that kind of distinguishes him from some of the other like high contact light bat guys that you might put him in the same group with. So I think that for one thing if we're just comparing Donovan to Williamson, the offensive upgrade there is obvious even if he never hits a home run in T Mobile park, which like he might not, but he probably will. I also really like the the flexibility slash insurance policy that this gives them because the other piece of that potentially sort of shifting and complicated infield is Colt Emerson, who is the Mariner's top prospect. A shortstop by trade now, but if you read Brendan Golowski's report on him from our recent Mariners list. Hey by the way teams, thanks for trading involving Alyssa. We already have all this. Certainly capable of sticking at short, but might be a better long term fit at third base where he'll be quite good. He is a non roster invite to big league camp and seems to have the option to sort of press and force the issue in camp and make the opening day roster. But he doesn't have to. I think the other looming question for Seattle to answer is JB Crawford's pretty bad in the field now Ben, and this is his final year with the club, you know, obviously an important member of that team and I don't think that like there's any danger of JP getting cut in camp or anything like that. But you know, as things shift around and they think about sort of their ideal defensive configuration, maybe in late innings, maybe if Cole Emerson makes the team like he comes in a Short later on. And you have. You have Donovan at third base. I don't imagine he'll have much opportunity to play in the outfield, but he does have some versatility out there, albeit in the corners. But that's fine because they have Julio in center. So I really like it. I think it addresses a lot of problems that they had. It certainly lengthens their lineup. I think that he's a really. As Ben. I thought Ben did a good job of noting this. You know, we don't want to get too bogged down in, like, how much lineup is construction matters. But I like the idea of him sitting at the top of that lineup ahead of Cal and Julio. You know, this sort of, like, grinding contact bat who is gonna get on base more often than not. So, I mean, not more often than not. It is baseball. He probably won't get on if you got on base more often than not.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, he'd be very bouncy.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah, he'd be super valuable. I mean, that would make this an amazing trade, but I think is a good, really nice guy to have at the top of that lineup ahead of sort of the big bopping bats. And, you know, this is like a. Ben, I don't know what to tell you, man. This is like a respectable group going Donovan into Cal into Julio into Josh, Naylor into Randy Rosarena. Also, you know, who's been pretty bad in the field lately is Randy Rosarena. And Brendan Donovan can play left, so I just think that he is like a really good Swiss army knife for them. And layered on top of that is this, like, obvious offensive upgrade from the guys who seemed likely to get a lot of time. And, you know, you can, and you still got the option to platoon Ref Snyder with Josh when they're like, tough lefties. So I just. It feels like a more cohesive group. I like it a lot. It came at a reasonable cost from a prospect perspective. But I think that, like, the Mariners are at the point on the wind curve and in the sort of life cycle of their rotation where, you know, press your advantage. They already projected as the best team in the west by our playoff odds. I think this moved them up like a win. But when you're looking out and you see, you know, an Astros team that is not what it once was, although it doesn't project as a bad team. You know, a Rangers team that projects pretty middling, an A's team that has great hitters, but some still, as we've discussed, really not very much in the way of pitching this Is the time to be like, no, we're going to go win and to do that in a way that gives you a bunch of versatility, that gives breathing room to your prospects as they're coming up, that gives you flexibility in the event of veteran falter underperformance. I just think that it's a pretty elegant piece of roster construction.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So yeah, yeah, it's a nifty trade set.

[Craig Calcaterra]

So many nice things.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

NFT player. It's just, you know, he doesn't have a lot of power, but he's a pretty well rounded offensive player and play a lot of positions competently and get on base in front of your boppers and bobbers. Unlike the other players that the Cardinals shipped out this off season, he is.

[Meg Rowley]

Not old and he's not particularly pricey. All the other guys were veterans on bigger deals and Donovan just turned 29 last month and he's still in his arb years. He's making what, 5.6 million or something this year. He's got a little team control left.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So it is quite a nice move for them. You know, they've turned over part of their infield going from Polanco and Suarez.

[Meg Rowley]

To the current arrangement.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But yeah, I like the moves they've made.

[Craig Calcaterra]

You mentioned we should talk about the prospects they sent out. Sanja is so fascinating. There's long been this question of how is he going to be optimally deployed. He is a much better pitcher as a right hander than he is as a left hander and the Mariners had said that they were going to use him as a right handed starter in camp and that he was throw his bullpens left handed. So we'll, we'll have to see if the Cardinals sort of progress on that same trajectory. But like he has the potential to be like a number three as just a right handed pitcher. He might end up being a fascinating reliever. You know, there's like a lot of ways that it could go for d' Angelo and it's such a cool story.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's.

[Craig Calcaterra]

It's sort of exciting in and of itself and I like it for St. Louis because my impression of the Cardinals is just that they are always defined by this sameness right? There is this consistency year in and year out, the kind of guy they like, the sorts of teams they're putting on the field and until recently that has been an admirable trait of theirs. Right. They're like always in the mix. From a playoff perspective, they're pretty boring. I think that as they are embarking on this rebuild, embracing some greater variance. If St. John ends up just being a reliever, maybe you feel disappointed by that. He's a top 100 guy for us and I think for most publications. But even if he doesn't end up being just a full time starter, even if he doesn't end up being an ambidextrous pitcher, there's a lot of potential for positive variance in him. And I think that that's true for Taipei to a lesser degree. Right. He is, I mean, he looked really good in center field in the spring when I saw him last year. The strikeouts are concerning and he might never really hit, but he is an incredible athlete. He made this transition to center field and has really taken to it. And so there, there are upside scenarios where he is like a consistent big league contributor, even if he's not like a super flashy player. And then, you know, I guess the last thing I'll say on St. Louis's behalf is you. They're also giving themselves a bunch of dart throws at the draft, right? Because they got these two comp B comparound B picks. The combined bonus money that comes with those is probably going to be around like 2.4, 2.5 million. We don't have slot for this year yet, but that's kind of where it landed last year. So it'll probably be in the same neighborhood. That is enough money to help you float a guy who is supposed to go higher in the draft than you are picking down to them at 13 or they can spread money around. Like it just gives them flexibility in the draft. And so I think that like, we never love to see a rebuild. And I think one of the things that has made the Cardinals like a model franchise for a long time is that they weren't really inclined to do like the hard resets. But if this is the sort of direction that their rebuild is going to take, like, this seems like a smart approach to me and so I like that for them. I'm gonna let you talk, but I do have to tell you, Ben, that at some point we are going to have to talk about the most unhinged Jury dipotle quote I have ever heard as it pertains to this trade. It doesn't have to do with the substance of it, but I need to talk about it with you because I worry I'm going to be haunted by it for the rest of my days.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, I will say I did a double take when I saw that St.

[Meg Rowley]

Joe was in the move in the trade because I had just seen headlines about him specializing as a righty because the Mariners declared him as a right handed pitcher on his invite to spring training and then they shipped him out.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I guess you could read into that. Oh, he's a radiant also. We don't want him.

[Meg Rowley]

But no, they used him to get something else valuable. And I get it.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's kind of a. Why can't we just have nice things? Why can't we just enjoy the ambidextrous pitcher? Well, we can't because. Have you looked at his splits lately? This is. I can't fault the Mariners slash the Cardinals, assuming that they handle him the same way.

[Meg Rowley]

Hand hill him because he just got creamed basically anytime he wasn't throwing right on right last year, it was ugly. So against righties as a righty, he allowed a.480 OPS last year. That's excellent. But against righties as a lefty, 1103 OPS, that is very, very bad.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And versus lefties as a righty, that wasn't great either. 8.45 OPS allowed, so he's gonna have.

[Meg Rowley]

To deal with that too. Just platoon splits from his good side.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, but versus lefties as a lefty, even left on left from his weaker side. 11:14.

[Meg Rowley]

So he was just getting tattooed by lefties and righties alike as a lefty.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And also, sure, some of these splits can be small samples and everything, but. But the scouting matches the stats in.

[Meg Rowley]

That case because he's just, he throws way harder. He has much better stuff from the right side, unfortunately.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I wish that he were a bit.

[Meg Rowley]

Better balanced, but he's just not the same.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So could he have that in his back pocket or something?

[Meg Rowley]

And maybe we'll see him do a switcheroo for fun sometime. Maybe. But this is probably the end.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So sometimes things that are fun get.

[Meg Rowley]

Less fun because it's like Luisa Rise. And when it was working really well.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It was fun and now it's kind of marginal and fringy and maybe he's.

[Meg Rowley]

Taken it too far.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And then in Sanchez case, it was always fun conceptually, but in practice it.

[Meg Rowley]

Always seemed somewhat tenuous. And yeah, now it's kind of a, well, the hitters will tell you whether it's working sort of situation.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So I can't fault him even though it's a little less fun. But if he becomes a good right handed pitcher for the Cardinals, then that's.

[Meg Rowley]

Still valuable for them.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, and, and the Rays, you know, they just kind of dip their beak.

[Meg Rowley]

They're just, they, they're the intermediaries you know, they. They're the trade brokers.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They just.

[Meg Rowley]

They take their cut. They. They facilitate. They make it work. Now they are hoping that the public.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Will facilitate yet another new ballpark plan that they're announcing. And all they want is a mere.

[Meg Rowley]

Billion plus dollars in public funding. So here we go again with the race and trying to find a permanent home and also trying to extract as much money as they can from the populace. But that's a story for another day and also some past days when we.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Have discussed that trend. But I guess, lastly, we can just touch on the White Sox here, because the White Sox made a couple moves.

[Craig Calcaterra]

We can. But wait. We have to do the.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh, right, Jerry.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Okay.

[Meg Rowley]

Right. So the.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The Jerry. This was one of those Jerry made.

[Meg Rowley]

A trade in a weird place sort of stories.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think this was a. A Rosenthal thing, because the Mariner, it was like, what, Cal rally was being honored at the Washington State Capitol.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah, they're, like, dedicating the day to Cal or something.

[Meg Rowley]

And so Jerry and GM Justin Hollander were there, so they had to scramble and find a place to text and call to consummate this trade that had been in the works for a while.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yes. They're up in the galley. I think Dan Wilson and maybe someone else from the team was, like, down on the floor. And there's the ceremony, and they're sitting up there and they're on a text thread with the various parties, and they get it done. Here's the line. Well, to start, to top it all off, Monday was Depot's 35th wedding anniversary quote. It was a good day, like most other Groundhog Days in my adult life. He said what, Ben? What does that mean? It was a good day, like most other Groundhog Days in my adult life. What?

[Meg Rowley]

What?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, that seems extremely random, but I.

[Craig Calcaterra]

I mean, it was Groundhog Day. I know he didn't just, like, bring up day, but what I.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, well, maybe what he means, maybe the preceding sentence is the key because.

[Meg Rowley]

It was his wedding anniversary. So I guess is.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Wait, is Groundhog Day the same day every year? I don't know.

[Craig Calcaterra]

I don't think so.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't remember. It's not a very important holiday to me as it is to Jerry Depot. But I was thinking, if it's the same day every year, then maybe he. Which it.

[Meg Rowley]

It should be, because it's groundhog Day.

[Craig Calcaterra]

On February 2nd of every year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So I think that's okay. It's just.

[Meg Rowley]

It's his wedding anniversary. Okay. But then.

[Craig Calcaterra]

But then it's. Then it's weird in a different way because it suggests that there were some wedding anniversaries that were bad, actually, like most other.

[Meg Rowley]

Other. Yeah.

[Craig Calcaterra]

What does this mean? What does this mean, most other groundhog days in my adult life? What, Ben, what does it mean?

[Ben Lindbergh]

You could have a bad day.

[Craig Calcaterra]

What happened to the. What happened on the bad wedding anniversaries?

[Meg Rowley]

What happened on those days? A good day. Not because it's your wedding anniversary, but.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maybe other things go wrong. Who knows? But, yeah, it sounds strange because it sounds like he's a huge Groundhog Day fan. Yes, it sounds excited for Punxsutawney Phil.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Right. My wedding anniversary is dictated by the fortunes of this small animal.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Craig Calcaterra]

What is it? What. What does that mean? What does that mean? I'm sorry, I'm young, because he said.

[Ben Lindbergh]

In my adult life. I think he's. He's specifying wedding because, like, the way.

[Craig Calcaterra]

But it's so weird. It's phrased so, so weird. Most other.

[Meg Rowley]

Most.

[Craig Calcaterra]

What happened on the bat? What? Was it bad? Because the.

[Meg Rowley]

Well, it's his 35th wedding anniversary. I mean, in 35 years. It. It stands to reason you might have a bad day on. On one wedding anniversary.

[Craig Calcaterra]

You have to lie about that, though. Well, you have to lie about that. You can't be telling Ken Rosenthal that you've had bad wedding anniversaries. Also, if you've had bad morning universities, is it because you're doing trades on your wedding anniversary? All of these men need to stop this. This happened with Stearns, too, as we discussed. He's, like, doing deals on his wedding anniversary.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And this is.

[Meg Rowley]

This is tame for Jerry because he's done deals from his hospital bed and.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All sorts of extreme scenarios.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Shouldn't do that. Yeah, like most other groundhog days in my adult life, Ben.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Craig Calcaterra]

It's just going to be knocking around in there, you know, this is in my brain. This is Craig's fault. I didn't know about this. I was blissfully ignorant of this because I hadn't. I saw that Rosenthal had, like, a Tick Tock piece about. Not a piece on Tick Tock, but, you know, like, with the Tick Tock of the trade. They should ban that absolute. People are confused by what I mean. I have no opinion.

[Meg Rowley]

They almost did, but not for that reason, really.

[Craig Calcaterra]

But for that reason. But anyway, I didn't know about it. And then Craig was like, have you seen this? And I was like, what does this.

[Meg Rowley]

Mean, by the way?

[Ben Lindbergh]

The rays have made so many moves this offseason. If you go to the the offseason.

[Meg Rowley]

Tracker at Roster Resource you can look.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Up transaction types, you can Jerry on his wedding anniversary.

[Meg Rowley]

It's good to see Trader Depot back at it and, and to have an opportunity to play the Bowman song jingle again.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But if you go to the transaction tracker, the Mariners have not been very.

[Meg Rowley]

Busy really this off season in the grand scheme of things. I guess they've been among the busiest teams but. But they've made 56 moves.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So the way it is, you can.

[Meg Rowley]

Look, you can sort by transaction type, you can isolate additions, subtractions, neutral, which.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is just bringing somebody back.

[Meg Rowley]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And the Rays lead the majors by.

[Meg Rowley]

A lot in just number of moves as, as classified by the folks at roster resource here. 93. They have 93 entries in the off season tracker and the next most is the Mets. We've certainly talked a ton about the Mets active off season, 76 entries for them and then it's a step down from the Mets to the next the third team. But the Rays are just number one by a ton.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And yet if you asked most people what the Rays have done this off season, would anyone be able to come up with anything really like they just, they haven't made that many major moves.

[Meg Rowley]

For famous players or big additions really. They haven't signed big free agents like Cedric Mullins, Stephen Matz, that's. That's it. Aside from minor league deals. So I guess this is very typically raised. This is what they do. They're just constantly churning and they always have 40 man crunches and they're just always just tap dancing as fast as they can and acquiring people and, and getting involved in three team trades where.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The headliners going and coming, you know, from other teams or two other teams.

[Meg Rowley]

But, but yeah, they're always busy one way or another, even if most people probably can't even recall what they did. So.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right, speaking of one more team.

[Meg Rowley]

That has been a bit busy lately.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The White Sox, they've gotten in on.

[Meg Rowley]

The Act 2 and they have signed Austin Hayes, not Hostin Slater. I have to keep my Austin outfielders straight here because I had a moment of confusion because I remember talking last winter about how Austin Slater said that the White Sox were the first team to reach out to him and they told him that he was their top target because we bantered a bit about that at the time. The idea of Austin Slater being your top target and whether that that was.

[Ben Lindbergh]

True and, and he felt very flattered by that as I probably would if a A team told me, Austin Slater, that I was Their top target, anyway. Different Austin, but also, I guess, a target.

[Meg Rowley]

So the White Sox have signed Austin Hayes, and they have also made a trade with the Red Sox and they have acquired Jordan Hicks.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, so, so this fits into. We were talking about the White Sox.

[Meg Rowley]

Recently because they signed Sir Anthony Dominguez. And we were, we were talking about.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, what are the White Sox up to here?

[Meg Rowley]

Why are they acquiring Sean Newcomb and Sir Anthony Dominguez? And, and sort of what you might.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Think of as almost finishing touches, supporting players, complimentary pieces.

[Meg Rowley]

Why are they doing this? And so now you can add Hicks and Hayes to the mix.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Decent players could be contributors. Hicks could set up for saranthony, I guess. And I get from the Red Sox.

[Meg Rowley]

Perspective, they're just trying to clear a little money. And, you know, they're sending some money to the other Sox as well, but they clear like 16 million of the.

[Ben Lindbergh]

24 million that Hicks has owed over the next couple years, and that lowers their CBT to just below the threshold as of now.

[Meg Rowley]

And they've.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The White Sox got a pitching prospect.

[Meg Rowley]

David Sandlin, in here and players to.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Be named later and also cash.

[Meg Rowley]

And then they sent back a righty and a player to be named later.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Anyway, I was trying to puzzle what is happening here, because we were talking about dark horse teams candidates last week, and I was thinking, well, are the.

[Meg Rowley]

White Sox, are they vaulting themselves into dark horse territory? Is that premature? They, they've gotten better.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They've got a lot of interesting players coming up. There's a core taking shape here, and now they're adding these more established players. Not stars or anything, but, but contributors. Have they even entered dark horse territory? Or are they still too far from qualifying as a dark horse?

[Meg Rowley]

And if they are, then what are they up to here?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Because we were saying with Sir Anthony, with relievers, okay, the White Sox, they've done this before. You can just sign someone with an.

[Meg Rowley]

Eye toward trading them. They have a decent start to the season, and then you flip them and you get some prospects back.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But, but, but now they're, they're doing this with even more guys.

[Meg Rowley]

So do they see themselves? This is, I guess, a question for.

[Ben Lindbergh]

James Fegan when we get to the.

[Meg Rowley]

White Sox preview podcast, we're starting with the Astros and the Diamondbacks. By the way, I should have said that earlier. They're the first two teams up.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But the White Sox, they'll be later in that series because of where they.

[Meg Rowley]

Stack up in the projections. But I don't know, are they thinking they could maybe make some noise here.

[Ben Lindbergh]

In the Central, or is this just.

[Meg Rowley]

They had to spend some money on someone because they, they traded Louise Robert and their payroll is. Is still pretty low.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Their fourth lowest payroll, 86 million.

[Meg Rowley]

So maybe it's a avoid a grievance or maintain revenue sharing status sort of move.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maybe that's all that's happening here or some combination of all of the above.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Well, I think it kind of depends. So I think that with, with, with Hayes, it's. We have had a persistent black hole here. Let's cover it up for pretty cheap. And I think, you know, always with, with a team like the White Sox, there's sort of a nod to. And hey, if he's really good, we'll flip him at the deadline. Like if he's a useful bat, we'll flip him at the deadline and we'll get a prospect back from. Or whatever. You know, for Hicks, like, the way that I am thinking about this deal is less that they are super enthused about Jordan Hicks and more they like David Sandlin. And this is how they got him is to take Hicks and the money coming to him sort of off the Red Sox hands. And I know that Boston is sending some money too, right? So it's not like it's. Right. Cash. Yeah, there's cash in the deal. But I think that, that primarily this is as much about, you know, them getting David Sandlin, the prospects here as it is them feeling like, oh, well, we can return Jordan Hicks to his former glory. Poor man never should have tried to start. You know, that was the, that was the thing. Although, you know, he, he was not good last year. Hicks, he was worse once he got to Boston, but he also had shoulder stuff. And so, like, maybe that explains it, but also, you know, he had shoulder stuff. So, you know what I mean? Like, that could kind of cut it either way. Gosh, this is just like an episode of handing it to people. Lower stakes ways now than at the beginning, certainly, but. But I like Chicago's winter, man. I mean, not the winter in Chicago that seems like it has been quite cold and unpleasant, but the off season that they have put together here, I have generally liked. We could quibble about whether they got as much as they possibly could have for Luis Robert Jr. But other than that, they're sort of taking bites at the apple. They are bringing in veterans to see who might be either useful to them or flippable at the deadline line. They're doing stuff like signing Murakami because his price tag is low. And let's just see what we have here. You know, is. Is the contact stuff really going to be such a problem, or did we get a. A good player for cheap? Let's reinforce the farm. Like, I don't know. I think that they're kind of. They're doing some interesting stuff, so that's good. But I think the. The hicks was about David Sandlin mostly.

[Meg Rowley]

Well, all of that business that they.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Have conducted has amounted to a 1.2%.

[Meg Rowley]

Chance to make the playoffs.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The fan graphs playoff odds, which were released on Monday. Nothing shocking because we tend to have.

[Meg Rowley]

Some idea how good the teams are and how likely they are to make the playoffs.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But any takeaways, any reactions from seeing the actual numbers out there?

[Craig Calcaterra]

I have been surprised that there has not been more of a reaction to the Dodgers projection. And the lack of reaction to the Dodgers projection makes me think that we still have work to do to explain how inherently conservative projections can be, because they are projected for. I mean, they're projected for 99.5 wins. So, like, let's round out up to.

[Meg Rowley]

108 wins clear of the second best team, the Braves.

[Craig Calcaterra]

They project incredibly well. Yeah, it's not surprising that they project incredibly well, but I've been kind of surprised that people aren't, like, throwing this as another log on the fire of damn. The Dodgers embrace a cap. This is a pretty, you know, it's like everybody's pretty tightly clustered. But a lot of this, I think, is pretty predictable based on the way that the off season has unfolded. The AL east is supposed to be really strong. We thought that they would project that way, and they projected that way. You have a pretty tight spread in the Centrals. The Mariners seem like the class of the division in the West. You know, I think that people continue to be surprised that the brewers don't project better than they do. They're a good example of, like, a known blind spot kind of in the way that our projections are done. We've talked about this with Ben Clements before. We've talked about this just between ourselves before. The. The depth that they are able to bring to bear really bolsters their group, and they pretty consistently outperform our projection for them. So it seems dramatic for the team that won the most games in baseball to be down to, like, 83 wins. I think that it's fine to anticipate that they will do better than that, just because some of the things that they're really good at, both in terms of their depth and also, like, the particular skill set of their roster. There's lots of defense and base running and these are things that I think tend to be a little undervalued in, in our projections. I think honestly the most surprising thing to me was look at those Pirates, Ben. Look at those, look at those respectable looking Pittsburgh Pirates 82 and 80.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That would be a winning team. That's a 37.5% chance to make the playoffs. Yeah, not too shabby. I mean it's funny. So Dan did a piece as you.

[Meg Rowley]

Know, because you run fan crafts that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Kind of added up the worst teams rosters and, and figured out how many.

[Meg Rowley]

Teams you'd have to smush together to have a team that would be favored to beat the Dodgers in a seven game series. And he found that you would have to take the seven worst teams.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is that right?

[Meg Rowley]

So you'd have to combine the Rockies.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The Nationals, the Angels, the White Sox.

[Meg Rowley]

The Pirates, the A's and the Rays. And if you, you add all of.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Those together, then you have a 57.2% chance to beat the Dodgers in a.

[Meg Rowley]

World Series or a seven game series.

[Craig Calcaterra]

And to be clear for those who haven't had a chance to read it the way he did it was, you know, he started with what you know, he told zips, build the best 26 man group that you can out of just the Rockies. And then he folded in the, you know, then he folded in the White Sox, then he folded in the Angels. And as he was doing that, he still sitting with a, a static number. He's not like allowing this underdog team to have a hundred players on it. But you know, the best guys are sort of filtering to the top. And I think by the end we didn't have any Rockies left.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Craig Calcaterra]

That's the ST right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's like some of the teams in the seven are doing a lot more.

[Meg Rowley]

Work than others because. Yeah, what.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And that's why I brought it up.

[Meg Rowley]

Because the the A's and the Pirates. So we were talking about this last week and I was talking about how lopsided the A's and the Pirates are in different directions.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yes.

[Meg Rowley]

So the A's have all these good hitters and the Pirates have all these good pitchers. But they are both lacking in the other thing. And I saw Dan mention on Blue sky that he did run projections just for the Pirates and Ace smushed together, which was the hypothetical that I was proposing the other day.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, just take them. The United Team 89 wins.

[Meg Rowley]

Projected wins. The AL West 26% of the time or the NL Central 31% of the time.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So it's true. They, they each do have at least half a contending team and you put them together and they're pretty solid. They're probably a playoff team. And yeah, even, even the Pirates, all by their lonesome, they're not out of this thing. They have a pretty rosy production as these things go.

[Meg Rowley]

The A's are, are down at 76.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Projected wins and only a 12% chance to make the playoffs. But yeah, if, if the Pirates just.

[Meg Rowley]

Had been a, a bit more active.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This off season, then you could really.

[Meg Rowley]

Start to consider them. Maybe they're too good for dark horse status now, as we were saying last week. So yeah, nothing stood out to me as shocking.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, it's, it's the usual suspects who maybe get underrated.

[Meg Rowley]

It's the brewers, the Guardians.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Of course, you know, I know, don't. I don't. I don't know if, if any social media accounts have been bringing this to.

[Meg Rowley]

Light, but I'm sure Guardians fans are, are not surprised to see that the projections. Don't think a whole lot of them. We'll see whether the team can beat that, but they're down at a 14%.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Chance to make the playoffs. 75.6 projected wins, really, and this is.

[Meg Rowley]

Not surprising, but the AL east, as I said last week, I think meat grinder and it is just even by ALE standards, I think. And we'd have to do some comparisons to past AL east because it's perennially pretty strong. But they're so closely grouped together and they're all just beating up on each other, of course. And so some of these teams are projected to be the best war wise. But because they're all going head to head all the time, they're all clustered between 86.2 wins.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The Yankees projected to be number one in that division and then the Orioles.

[Meg Rowley]

Are at 83 point.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So you're talking about two and a half wins separating the first best and fourth best projected win totals. And then the Rays bringing up the.

[Meg Rowley]

Rear, the projected seller dwellers at like 78 wins. So there's just not much of a difference, not much of a gap.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And that's not particularly surprising. If you take the top four teams, they all have better than 50% chances.

[Meg Rowley]

To make the playoffs, which doesn't mean that you're going to get four playoff teams from the AL east.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But, but it's conceivable because I mentioned.

[Meg Rowley]

The robust, optimistic Braves bounce back projection.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The Orioles also have their own bounce back projected here.

[Meg Rowley]

So yeah, there's just Not a lot of daylight among these teams. And maybe some people would be surprised.

[Ben Lindbergh]

To see the Yankees at the top just because they've had a comparatively pedestrian and tame winter when you stack them up against the Sox and the Jays and the Orioles. But, but they were a strong team last year. They did have the best underlying numbers in that division. They are getting some reinforcements, some returns.

[Meg Rowley]

So it doesn't shock me really to see them there. But yeah, that is just going to be a dogfight all season long. Or at least it looks like it will be. Who knows how it will actually play out. And top of the NL east similarly. Oh yeah, nothing new there either really. But the Braves, Mets and Phillies all projected to be good. All have, have playoff odds of 65% or better. Yeah, Braves just expected to, to come all the way back.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I know.

[Meg Rowley]

With better health, so we'll see. But yeah, the, the dodgers are like.

[Ben Lindbergh]

17 wins clear of the next best team in the nos. The Padres. That's, that's not a great projection.

[Meg Rowley]

They're.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They're down at 79 wins below actually the Giants and the Diamondbacks.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

With a 21% chance to make the playoffs. So that might sort of surprise people, I guess.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Yeah, I think it will until you remember that they like they lost guys from their group last year, didn't really do much to replace them. So maybe it's not all that surprising when you put it that way, you know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Okay. Well, always fun to have that as a handy reference and to structure our preview series accordingly.

[Meg Rowley]

Always enjoy perusing the playoff odds. When I get my, my fan graphs wrapped equivalent at the end of the year, it always tells me I'm like the lord of the playoff odds. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. I'm always like always scrutinizing the playoff odds pretty closely.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Ben, I have to say I'm surprised that you didn't bring up the White Sox most important acquisition, which is they're bidet people now. They are.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's true.

[Craig Calcaterra]

They are bidet.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They've gotten on board with the bidets. Yeah. This past weekend we did a bonus.

[Meg Rowley]

Episode for patreon supporters.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Our 51st. We got 51 bonus episodes just sitting there. If you sign up now, you can access all of them.

[Meg Rowley]

And we talked about bidets on that one, of course, because.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Of course.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

My mayor, Zoran Mamdani has, has endorsed and embraced the bidet and is trying to install some bidets at Gracie Mansion, the mayor's residence.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So Zoran Mamdani, big bidet guy, but.

[Meg Rowley]

Also Munetaka Murakami and you know, he was visiting the White Sox facilities, so to speak.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You know, they were.

[Meg Rowley]

They're upgrading the clubhouse now at Rate Field. They should upgrade that name. But they're adding a bidet or bidets.

[Ben Lindbergh]

To the home clubhouse. Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

And this was something that Murakami, when he visited, he noticed no bidets.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And this is not even the first.

[Meg Rowley]

Time that bidets have come up with players and signing free agents. Because Roki Sasaki told the Dodgers that installing bidets would influence his signing decision.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't know that that was actually the difference maker. And that's why he chose the Dodgers and everyone else was a finalist. They were not as willing to embrace the bidet. I don't know. But obviously this is important to him.

[Meg Rowley]

Bidet is very common in Japan, in Korea, in many other places around the world.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so you gotta get the bidet. Like, don't do it after the fact, you know, okay. They managed to sign Sasaki and the.

[Meg Rowley]

White Sox managed to sign Murakami.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But do it proactively.

[Meg Rowley]

Just go get the bidet. At least have the option.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You don't need to impose bidet usage on players who don't prefer it.

[Craig Calcaterra]

How would you enforce it if you did?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, you could just take out all of the traditional toilets and just.

[Craig Calcaterra]

You don't have to use the bidet function on a bidet equipped toilet.

[Ben Lindbergh]

True.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. It's always optional. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So. So, yeah, at least provide it because it's a global game and, you know, you're recruiting players from all over the world and places that are more bidet friendly than the US Is. Though hopefully that's changing. So.

[Craig Calcaterra]

This might be rude on my part, Ben. I'm willing to acknowledge that it might be rude. I need the Phillies to put bidets in there. Their clubhouse. One, you got enough raw milk in there. That just seems wise. And two, I need to know what Bryce Harper thinks of a bidet. I need to. I'm like a weird sicko now. I'm a sicko for his sicko. Right. I don't actually want to know about the raw milk. I mean, it's not as bad as the booby milk.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Horrifying.

[Meg Rowley]

The raw milk is. It's worse from a health perspective.

[Craig Calcaterra]

It is worse from a health perspective. That is true. That is true.

[Richard Hershberger]

Yeah.

[Craig Calcaterra]

But I need them to do it. And then I need. I need Gelb to go ask him about it. Oh, we should warn Gelb how much we're gonna talk about the raw milk on the Phillies preview. You should let him know before you ask him so that he can say no if he wants to.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right. Well, we will be previewing next time. I will be back in just a moment with Richard Hershberger to talk a.

[Meg Rowley]

Little bit about the 150th birthday of the National League.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Happy birthday to the National League. Happy birthday to the National League. Happy birthday to the National League. Happy birthday to the National League.

[Richard Hershberger]

And many more.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And many more. Yes, let's hope we can discuss how many more there will be. But here to blow out the candles.

[Meg Rowley]

On behalf of William Hulbert, the former Chicago White Stockings owner who is often.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Credited for being instrumental in the founding of the National League, which occurred on February 2, 1876. Just about five miles south of me at the Grand Central Hotel in New York City is Richard Hershberger, who, of.

[Meg Rowley]

Course, graced us many a time with his past blasts and also has graced.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The baseball community with his book, Strike for the Evolution of Baseball. And one pretty key evolution, I suppose.

[Meg Rowley]

Is the founding of the National League. So welcome back, Richard.

[Richard Hershberger]

Thank you, Ben, for having me.

[Meg Rowley]

So some people, many people will date the beginning of Major League Baseball to the founding of the National League.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Others will credit the beginning of the.

[Meg Rowley]

National association, the predecessor to the National League, with being the first major league. And then that would take us back to 1871.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I guess maybe in some way they're both kind of right, because, as usual, the story is kind of complicated, and everything that is founded is founded on the back. On the shoulders of.

[Meg Rowley]

Of something.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so the National League did grow out of the bones of the National Association. But why don't you give us the. The short capsule summary of how and. And why the National League came to be formed when it did.

[Meg Rowley]

Sure.

[Richard Hershberger]

Thank you. Well, first of all, the national association has a better origin story because they were founded in the back room of an Irish Bar on St Patrick's Day. National League doesn't have that. But why was the National League founded is a more difficult question than you would think is why wasn't the national association cutting it? There were a couple structural flaws with the National Association. The largest one was that they had no idea of limited membership. It was envisioned as comprising all. All the professional clubs in the country. And in 1871, that was a manageable number, but it didn't really define what a professional club is. So that turned into any club that thought they might be able to throw their hat in the ring could send in 10 bucks and send a delegate to the meeting. You ended up With a series of clubs that had no business being in there. That is the, the thumbnail version of why the National League was founded because it restricted itself to financially more stable clubs in larger cities. And that, that was the major point. There also were. The national association had shenanigans. Quite a lot of shenanigans.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'd expect nothing less of 19th century baseball.

[Richard Hershberger]

Well, some of them are quite modern. One of the biggest was the issue of players throwing games for gambling purposes. Yes, that will feel very 2025.

[Meg Rowley]

Good thing we've put that behind us forever.

[Richard Hershberger]

Thank goodness that doesn't happen anymore. Yeah, five years ago we could say that without laughing. An interesting question is how much of this was actually going on and nobody knows. If you read the papers from the time, you would think that it was happening constantly. And it's actually very much like if you think back to the turn of the century, to the steroid era. Guy comes to the plate and hits a ball into the upper deck and everybody looks at each other and says roids. All that happened is he got good wood on the ball. And maybe he was on steroids, but maybe he just got good wood. Because it's not like people had never put a ball in the second deck before the steroids era or since. So the National League very much wanted to tell people that it was founded to put an end to that. And this is one of the, the fascinating aspects of the question of why the league was founded because a lot of it was obvious propaganda. These were talking points. We can tell that this was not the serious reason because they talked about, oh, we're going to keep out the crooked players. And then they didn't, you know, if you're going to keep out the crooked players, this implies that you're going to have some sort of, of system to determine who these are. They never did that. So that, that is, to put it succinctly, bull. At the same time there, there were shenanigans in the national association era that the league did put an end to. And one of the problems was that the, it was difficult to know who a player was actually signed with. With there, there was no central repository. So a player could sign a contract, you know, in, let's say November, then in December he gets a better offer. So he signs another contract.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Sure.

[Richard Hershberger]

And of course the contract has a date on it, but that doesn't mean it's a real date. They were fully prepared to back date contracts that went on quite a lot. So how did they sort that out? Well, there was a Judiciary committee, and it would collect evidence and make a ruling. And that actually kind of worked. Not that the rulings were necessarily the best ones possible, but there was a consensus. Everybody agreed to abide by them. After the 1874 season, you had one of these disputes over shortstop Davey Forrest, who had been playing with Chicago, but then he signed with the Philadelphia Athletics, and then he signed with Chicago, or perhaps the other way around. And the Judiciary committee for the 1874 Judiciary Committee met and determined that force should belong to Chicago. Then the 1875 Judiciary Committee met and ruled that he should go to the Athletics.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh, dear.

[Richard Hershberger]

And William Holbert, whom you mentioned before, was president of the Chicago club. And he felt, with some justification, that the 1875 committee had been stacked by the president of the National Association, Charles Sparing, who was a Philadelphian. So he called shenanigans. But fourth played with the athletics that year. Then in 1875, you have more shenanigans this time. Was Hulbert doing it because there was a rule against player tampering? Just like today, there's a point before which you cannot negotiate with a player under control of another club. And Hulbert just blew right past that. He signed four of the best players from the Boston club and did it during the season. Reason? You will sometimes find people tell you that Holbert wanted to found the National League because he was offended by shenanigans. And this is not true. He was offended by being at the wrong end of shenanigans.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If he had been the shenaniganer, then he would have been okay with it.

[Richard Hershberger]

He never saw a conflict of interest that he wasn't able to embrace. He was a really interesting guy, and.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He didn't live much longer.

[Meg Rowley]

He died in 1882. But he. He did get into the hall of Fame via the Veterans Committee more than a century later in 1995, for his founding role, and rightly so.

[Richard Hershberger]

I mean, if you're going to put executives in the hall of Fame, he clearly belongs.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. And he was the president of the league until his death. Now, I suppose that the league was founded to be enduring and kick out some of the weaker teams and. And keep some of the stronger teams.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And of course, there was plenty of.

[Meg Rowley]

Turnover and new franchises coming in over the years, but they wanted this to be built to last. And so if they could Hear us now, 150 years later, talking about how this still survives, I guess they would be pretty proud. They would say once we explained what computers and podcasts are, and they would.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Wrap their heads around that they'd probably be pretty happy that their handiwork was still around. And I wonder how much of that is just a happy historical accident and.

[Meg Rowley]

How much of it was present in the foundations they laid down.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Because I'm. I'm thinking of. You know, sometimes you'll hear Paul McCartney.

[Meg Rowley]

Say, well, we didn't think that our music was going to endure. We didn't think that people were still going to be listening to the Beatles.

[Ben Lindbergh]

We thought we would just be a flash in the pan. And sure, maybe that's just false modesty, but also, at the time, they were so young. Rock and roll was still pretty young. That whole form of popular music had not endured. So how could they possibly know that they would still be popular all these decades later?

[Meg Rowley]

But Beatles music was really good, so it was ultimately built to last.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So would you say that the National League was structured in such a way.

[Meg Rowley]

That it sort of makes sense that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It lasted for 150 years, or is that kind of a fluke?

[Meg Rowley]

And it could have gone in any number of directions?

[Richard Hershberger]

I think it could have gotten any number of directions. It clearly had the flexibility to adapt, which is half the battle right there. But they were there to make a buck. There certainly was a sense of building the game, that the game itself had intrinsic value. But these were also businessmen. They also were interested in promoting their cities. There was a strong idea that a strong baseball club would put the city on the map. And, you know, that seemed to have been a genuine sentiment. Did they think that this would be a permanent institution 150 years later? I'm guessing they would have been astonished.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. Because baseball had not been. Well, of course, you've documented the. The actual origins of baseball and how far back it goes, but baseball in recognizable form, and obviously professional baseball was a fairly recent innovation. So how could they possibly think it.

[Richard Hershberger]

Was about a decade old?

[Meg Rowley]

Right.

[Richard Hershberger]

Professional baseball, yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

So I would imagine that that would.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Be quite a surprise to learn that.

[Meg Rowley]

It had endured and thrived for a century and a half.

[Craig Calcaterra]

Who.

[Meg Rowley]

Who could have really anticipated that with any kind of confidence?

[Richard Hershberger]

Now, I want to throw out a.

[Meg Rowley]

What if we like those here? Yeah.

[Richard Hershberger]

My counterfactual, you pointed out that there's disagreement that Major League baseball started in 1876 or 1871. So one of the questions about the National League is why did they not simply revise the national association constitution? Eight clubs finished 1875 in the national association. Six of them were in the National League that, you know, the following year. And so you sometimes have People kind of assume that the National League was founded in competition with the national association, but. But it really wasn't. It was a reorganization of the National Association.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, they both start with national, even.

[Richard Hershberger]

And there are two ways that you can do that. One is you can do what they did, which is say, okay, we're gonna take our bat and ball and we're gonna start our own group and do it our. Our way. Or they could have showed up at the national association meeting, which was scheduled to be in New Haven in March of 1876. They could have showed up. These would have been the clubs that mattered. They would have had the votes to just ram through what they wanted. And it's actually a very difficult question why they didn't do that. And I think that it was just easier to present the baseball world with a fait accompli rather than show up in New Haven and having to look these people in the eye and say, no, you're out. So my counterfactual is that suppose they had gone that route instead. Then it would have been a footnote in baseball history that there was this reorganization of the Constitution in 1876. But nobody would have suggested that it didn't go back to 1871. It is purely an accident of bureaucratic decision.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I guess if they could see.

[Meg Rowley]

The league of today, they would not really recognize it. Maybe Hulbert would say, oh, Chicago White Stockings.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, you still have Chicago White Sox, though.

[Meg Rowley]

It's. It's a different franchise, and it's not in the National League anymore.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And maybe they'd say, oh, Cincinnati Reds. We had a Cincinnati Reds in 1876, and you still have one, even though they never talk about them unaffectively wild. There is a Cincinnati Reds in 2026.

[Meg Rowley]

Different franchise, but same name, same city, at least.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So some things at least have endured, I suppose, but in. And all the other sort of structural.

[Meg Rowley]

Ways, it's not really the same. I was kind of wondering when we would say that the National League will end. I mean, on one level, I guess.

[Ben Lindbergh]

As long as Major League Baseball endures.

[Meg Rowley]

The work that those founders did in 1876 will endure, because the Major League Baseball of today grew out of the National League of 1876 in a roundabout way, but.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But of course, there's no real National.

[Meg Rowley]

League in the way that there used to be, when the leagues were separate and they had their own presidents who had actual power, and they had different umpiring crews and they had different rules, and now they're unified under the MLB banner and there's even some possibility, I suppose. I. I doubt this, but it's possible that when there's expansion and all the teams are reorganized and regrouped, they could even do away with the names National League and American League because, of course, it's kind of a relic now. They're essentially the same. I suspect they'll keep the nomenclature around just for old time's sake, but. But it won't have much meaning to the extent that it even does now.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So I guess you'd say as long as MLB indoors, the National League will have continuity dating all the way back to 1876.

[Meg Rowley]

But it's also so different from the way it was 150 years ago. Unsurprisingly.

[Richard Hershberger]

Well, first, let's preempt the emails.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Richard Hershberger]

And note that the Chicago Cubs are the Chicago White Stockings.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay. Yes.

[Richard Hershberger]

The same club. And that the Atlanta Braves were the Boston Red Stockings by way of Milwaukee.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. Baseball reference has them as, as the Boston Reds for 1876, but I trust you.

[Richard Hershberger]

It's a theological debate.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. Right.

[Richard Hershberger]

But your point that the National League doesn't really exist anymore is very, very well founded. Certainly once they merged the home offices and you no longer had league presidents. Major League Baseball is the league. I compare it to the NFL. The NFL and the AFL merged. They had a meeting. They said we're merging. Then they called a press conference that said we've merged and the old NFL became the NFC and the AFL became the afc. Baseball has done the same thing, but without the press conference and without the name changes. This is also why I don't get nostalgic or upset about interleague play. That, you know, that's like complaining that AFC and NFC teams play each other. It's the same league. It's just how we're going to do our scheduling. But you're. You're right. The national league in the 1876 since does not exist anymore and hasn't for a couple decades now. But it is the. The father of Major League Baseball in all its glory, for better or worse.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, and.

[Meg Rowley]

Well, that's my last question for you. Maybe.

[Ben Lindbergh]

For better or worse. I think we're happy that there's Major.

[Meg Rowley]

League Baseball, but could there have been some better version of Major League Baseball, Some alternative to the National League? And we would all be happier today and the sport would be in even better shape if we had not traced the origins back to 1876 and, and William Hober, because of course, all these challengers come along and there are other.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Leagues in the 19th century that are designated as major.

[Meg Rowley]

And then there's the, the Players Revolt and the Players League and later the Federal League.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so as you said, it could.

[Meg Rowley]

Have gone in any number of directions.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Was this a good direction? Was this a. An upper percentile outcome? I guess if we wanted baseball to.

[Meg Rowley]

Survive and thrive for all this time.

[Richard Hershberger]

I'm sort of a fan of the 1884 Union association and that's controversial, but I'm not a fan because they had their act together. Say what you will about the National League and it was run by a bunch of rat bastards, but they pretty much had their act together and, and that's pretty much a prerequisite for survival.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, being cutthroat can be beneficial. It's competitive and. And maybe they did some things that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Would certainly seem un, unsavory now, but.

[Meg Rowley]

They did ensure at least that baseball.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Would become as prominent and popular and enduring as it did.

[Meg Rowley]

Or at least they contributed to that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maybe it would have done just fine.

[Meg Rowley]

Without them because it's a great game. But. But the structure that we have today.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Certainly does date back to then.

[Meg Rowley]

So we owe some sort of debt, I suppose.

[Richard Hershberger]

I am a big believer that the proof of what a great game baseball is that it. It is that it survives the owners.

[Meg Rowley]

Right? Yes.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, well, anything else you'd like to add before we complete our birthday mini celebration?

[Richard Hershberger]

Happy birthday.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, a few closing updates for you. First, we talked not too long ago.

[Meg Rowley]

About the implications for sports and society of prediction markets, polymarket, Kalshi etc, which.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Are increasingly popular and also potentially dangerous.

[Meg Rowley]

Not.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Not really regulated, ostensibly regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

[Meg Rowley]

Well, the head of the cftc, Chairman Michael Selig, who took over in December, not sure if he's any relation to.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Bud, said on Thursday that the CFTC will write new rules for the prediction.

[Meg Rowley]

Market industry for better or worse in 2024. Under a previous chairman and of course a previous presidential administration, the agency issued.

[Ben Lindbergh]

A proposal that called for banning sports and politics related wagers on prediction markets. While the new chairman is formally withdrawing.

[Meg Rowley]

That that plan as well as a.

[Ben Lindbergh]

2025 staff advisory that cautioned businesses from offering sports related contracts due to ongoing litigation.

[Meg Rowley]

So not sure if this will be good or bad, but it'll be different. Maybe still very much a fluid situation.

[Ben Lindbergh]

As is MLB's broadcast picture. We talked about the ongoing death spiral of Main Street Sports Group which was.

[Meg Rowley]

In position to televise nine MLB clubs games in 2026. They've been missing payments and as a.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Result six clubs that did work with.

[Meg Rowley]

Main street last year, the Reds, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Cardinals and Rays announced on Monday that they will let MLB oversee production and distribution of their telecasts.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The Tigers may soon join them. For the Braves and the Angels, things.

[Meg Rowley]

Are still sort of up in the.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Air, but MLB was already handling the.

[Meg Rowley]

Broadcast for seven teams the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Rockies, Twins, Padres, Mariners and nationals.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So add six to that. The league's portfolio is up to 13 teams and and if those remaining three, the Tigers, Braves and Angels were all.

[Meg Rowley]

To go under the MLB umbrella, then the league would be operating broadcast for more than half of the teams. So gotta catch em all. Rob Manfred is trying, but it's gonna take some time to put that package together. It's just a matter of how much time and of course, how much money.

[Ben Lindbergh]

MLB says that for the clubs that.

[Meg Rowley]

Lost their RSN deals, the broadcast deals replacing them have on average paid out about 50% of what clubs had received from their former cable team deals. Of course, especially with a CBA about.

[Ben Lindbergh]

To expire, the league is incentivized to suggest that it's not making as much money as it was. Then again, when it comes to the.

[Meg Rowley]

Broadcast contracts, that is probably true, at least to some extent.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And lastly, speaking of baseball economics, the MLBPA publicized the final figures for 2025.

[Meg Rowley]

And found that the rate of increase for MLB's average salary slowed to 1.4%.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Last year while setting a record average at at $4,721,393.

[Meg Rowley]

So it was the smallest increase since the average dropped in four straight seasons before 2022, but still a new high, albeit not really keeping up with inflation.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And this dovetails with something listener and Patreon supporter Michael Mountain sent me this week. He posted this in the Discord Group as well.

[Meg Rowley]

For Patreon supporters, he writes, this is.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The most anti labor thought exercise I've.

[Meg Rowley]

Ever gone through, but I wanted to.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Take a different look at a past.

[Meg Rowley]

Stat blast from episode 1834 war.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The question was about which player's career.

[Meg Rowley]

Earnings have most closely matched their value provided on a dollars per war basis.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Ben used fan graphs dollars per war.

[Meg Rowley]

Calculations which go back to 2002 and.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Applied those yearly figures to the seasonal production of players, then added up their.

[Meg Rowley]

Career totals and compared them to actual earnings.

[Ben Lindbergh]

However, as he acknowledged in the episode.

[Meg Rowley]

This is an imperfect calculation because the dollars per war numbers are based on free agent contracts.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Obviously the career arc for most good players is that they're underpaid in the.

[Meg Rowley]

Beginning of their careers and Then they cash in once reaching free agency, where teams are routinely willing to pay 10 million for each projected win above replacement in most cases.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But from a team perspective, part of what drives the dollars per war calculation in free agency is scarcity.

[Meg Rowley]

There are only a handful of impact.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Free agents available at a given position.

[Meg Rowley]

In a given offseason, so using those.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Scarcity boosted numbers to derive a dollar.

[Meg Rowley]

Per war number that can apply to every player every year is not quite apples to apples.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If free agent dollars per war represents one plausible end of the player valuation spectrum, this exercise represent represents the other end. It's obviously impossible to know how much.

[Meg Rowley]

Teams would spend on their payroll if every player had free agency rights regardless of their service time, but I think.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It'S fair to say that teams would spend at least as much on payroll.

[Meg Rowley]

As they currently do. It stands to reason that compared to.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The current system, increased player freedom of movement would not result in additional wage suppression.

[Meg Rowley]

Barring some elaborate form of collusion and absent any other economic changes to the game, it seems logical to expect that if owners were given a choice of.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maintaining the the current overall level of expenditures versus taking their ball and going.

[Meg Rowley]

Home, they would at least be willing to pay players in the aggregate what.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They pay now, albeit with a different distribution within the player pool.

[Meg Rowley]

Michael says Now I do firmly believe.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That on the whole teams can afford to pay players more than they currently do, but without speculating wildly on how much more. It seems irresponsible to throw a fixed.

[Meg Rowley]

Multiplier on these numbers and say that's what players deserve.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So I'm left with only the evidence in front of my face. MLB owners collectively decided it was one worth their while to operate 30 teams.

[Meg Rowley]

At a combined payroll of $5.35 billion in 2025.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If the players wanted to split that money up differently among them, in theory, it shouldn't impact the owner's willingness to.

[Meg Rowley]

Spend that bottom line figure.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So I calculated a new player value.

[Meg Rowley]

Baseline using league wide payroll data going back to 1988, which he found at the website the Baseball Cube, mapping it.

[Ben Lindbergh]

More closely to wins above replacement.

[Meg Rowley]

Now players are worth salary above replacement.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So a player's deserved salary in a given year is the league minimum plus their season fan graphs WAR times a.

[Meg Rowley]

Weighting factor and the weighting factor in a given year is determined by the following formula.

[Ben Lindbergh]

F equals parentheses, P minus M times R close parentheses divided by total war, where P is total league wide payroll, M is the minimum salary, R is.

[Meg Rowley]

The roster size, and total WAR is total league wide war.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So he finds by this calculation, the dollars per war number has risen by about $130,000 each year, remarkably, remarkably consistently.

[Meg Rowley]

Going back to 1988.

[Ben Lindbergh]

In 2024, it reached 5 million per WAR for the first time. And last year it was 5.3 million per WAR, not adjusted for inflation. There are five player seasons worth, quote, unquote, 50 million or more.

[Meg Rowley]

Aaron Judge in 2022, 2024 and 2025.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Shohei Otani in 2025, and Bobby Witt Jr.

[Meg Rowley]

In 2024.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Since 1988, the players with the highest total deserved career earnings in millions. Well, well, it's a bunch of really good players.

[Meg Rowley]

Mike Trout at 358 million, Clayton Kershaw.

[Ben Lindbergh]

309, Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman, Max Scherzer.

[Meg Rowley]

Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado, Zach Grinke and Jose Altuve.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Regardless of method, whether this or the.

[Meg Rowley]

Original stat blast, Ryan Domit is at the bottom with a career deserved earnings of negative 19.9 million. Well, that's Fangraph's war for you. Framing does not treat Mr. Domit kindly.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The smallest positive deserved career salary for someone who debuted in 88 or later and played at least five seasons is a National League reliever from the mid 2000s.

[Meg Rowley]

Mike Gosling. Negative 0.7 fan graph score for a deserved career payday of $2,825.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The next step, Michael says, is to compare these numbers to actual career earnings, which I obtained for him from Dan.

[Meg Rowley]

Hirsch at Baseball Reference, who helped us with the original stat Blast.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He sent all the career earnings for.

[Meg Rowley]

Now retired players going back to 1988, players who've had their whole careers during that span.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Their salary data isn't common comprehensive, but.

[Meg Rowley]

He gave me everything he had.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And the most, quote, unquote overpaid players in terms of career earnings exceeding their deserved total by at least 100 million. Derek Jeter, 265 million Actual 154 million Deserved Albert Pujols, David Price, Ryan Howard, Chris Davis, Alex Rodriguez, Steven Strasberg and Miguel Cabrera.

[Meg Rowley]

Most underpaid players, quote unquote, deserved career earnings exceeding actual earnings by at least 50 million.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Jonathan Lucroy, 26 million actual $118 million deserved. Another framing guy, followed by Brian Dozier, Whit Merrifield, Corey Kluber, Tyler Flowers, a.

[Meg Rowley]

Ben Lindbergh favorite, another framer, Russell Martin.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Another framer, Ben Zobrist, Jose Fernandez, Kevin.

[Meg Rowley]

Kiermeyer and Brett Gardner.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And the closest matches between actual and quote, unquote deserved salary. Well, for no minimum salary it's relief pitcher Dave Moorer, who pitched about 22.

[Meg Rowley]

Innings over four seasons.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He made 202,500 bucks and deserved 202,585 bucks.

[Meg Rowley]

For guys who made at least a million dollars, it's Eugenio velas at least.

[Ben Lindbergh]

5 million, Dominic Leone at least 10 million, Buddy Groom at least 25 million, Eric Young senior at least 40 million, Milton Bradley and at least 100 million.

[Meg Rowley]

Annie Ball Sanchez, who made 103.121 million and deserved 103.432 million.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Most quote unquote overpaid by percentage among players with positive fan graphs were Otherwise you just get a bunch of guys who were not very good and made league minimum number one Roger Sedano 30 million actual earnings 820,000 deserved then Rusni Castillo, Byung Ho Park Turk Wendell, Pat Mears, Pedro Borbone, Jeff Brantley, Huji Fujikawa.

[Meg Rowley]

Chris Davis and Lenny Harris.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Other interesting names Michael Notes whose quote unquote deserved earnings were within 1% of their actual salary BJ Upton, Chipper Jones, Rondell White, Tim Hudson, Daniel Hudson, Edison Voulkes, Eric Burns, Carlos Gonzalez, Darren Fletcher.

[Meg Rowley]

Tim Wakefield and Aaron Hill.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All of this is of course available.

[Meg Rowley]

In a spreadsheet, which I will link to.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Thanks to Michael for the follow up. And he also stresses Please relay my insistence on putting the word deserved in quotes and my general discomfort with presenting.

[Meg Rowley]

Data in such a light as to lend credence to ownership claims of being unable to spend more money than they currently do. And those claims are as at least as old as the National League.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If you'd like to spend more money than you currently do on Effectively Wild, you can do so by supporting us on Patreon. Just go to patreon.com effectivelywild and sign up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks, as have the following five listeners Alex C, Shane Conklin, Nikhil Patel, Christopher Yang and Liam Sullivan.

[Meg Rowley]

Thanks to all of you.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wow. Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, prioritized email answers.

[Meg Rowley]

Personalized messages, shout outs at the end.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Of episodes, potential podcast appearances, discounts on merch and ad free fancrafts memberships, and so much more.

[Meg Rowley]

Check out all the [e-mail] effectivelywild if.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email Send your questions, comments, intro and.

[Meg Rowley]

Outro themes to podcastangrafts.com youm can rate.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcast, Spotify, YouTube, music, and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook [e-mail] group effectivelywild. You can find the effectively wild subreddit at r effectivelywild and you can check.

[Meg Rowley]

The show notes in the podcast, posted.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Fan graphs or the episode description in.

[Meg Rowley]

Your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. As mentioned, we will preview the Astros and the Diamondbacks next time. We typically don't post the full schedule.

[Meg Rowley]

Because it's sort of subject project to change. We don't update it based on the.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Projections as the projections and projected win totals change in the lead up to opening day.

[Meg Rowley]

But sometimes we have to reschedule stuff.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So usually I'll tell you at the.

[Meg Rowley]

End of one episode who's up next.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And we will bring you that first Entry in the 2026 season preview series.

[Meg Rowley]

A little later this week. Talk to you then. Just a couple of baseball nerds. They'll still be speaking statistically rambling, romantically, pontificating, pedantically, bantering, bodily drafting, discerningly giggling, giddily, equaling effectively wild.