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Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Effectively Wild Episode 2436: Season Preview Series: Astros and Diamondbacks
02:00:27
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- [00:02]
Meg Riley
Luster stats and entry. They both mean a lot to me. Special gifts in three new series.
- [00:09]
Ben Lindbergh
Pitching and pure poetry.
- [00:18]
Effectively Wild.
- [00:22]
Meg Riley
Effectively Wild. Effectively Wild Baseball Podcast. Hello and welcome. Welcome to episode 2436 of Effectively Wild, the FanGraphs baseball podcast, brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Riley of fangraphs, and I am joined by Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer. Ben, how are you?
- [00:43]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, today's sign of the AI Slotpocalypse. You ready for this one? This is hot off the the AP wire. Major League Baseball players have agreed to let a tech company create AI characters of themselves that can chat and interact with fans under an agreement announced Thursday between Genies and MLB Players, Inc. It's another example of, you know, something you can't put back in the bottle, I guess, Right?
- [01:12]
Meg Riley
Yeah. Like, what are we.
- [01:13]
Ben Lindbergh
What's called Pandora's Box? Yeah. The agreement between Genies and MLB Players, Inc. The business affiliate of the Players Association. AI Avatars of top stars will be created that can have conversations with fans. Each avatar will reflect a player's voice and. And interests. Interests. I wonder what that means, like their interest in baseball or their other interests, like AI Mike Trout just gives you the weather forecast. Genies will have. Oh, this is good. Genies will have the ability to charge for chat interactions in app experiences and digital goods. The company could not say which players will initially be available as avatars. We couldn't say. Who could say? I guess they can't say.
- [02:03]
Meg Riley
This is terrible. Okay, so, first of all, they can't have a conver. It can't have a conversation with you. It's an A.I. it's not A. It's not a person. It's a chat bot. You. You know how satisfied you feel when you have, like, one billing question for your. Your health insurance and you end up screaming at your own computer because, my God, why can't I just talk to a real human person? Sure, it's like that, but like, hey, why you throw the cutter that way.
- [02:31]
Ben Lindbergh
You know, and you can pay for it.
- [02:34]
Meg Riley
Why would you. Why?
- [02:36]
Ben Lindbergh
Why?
- [02:36]
Meg Riley
Oh, Ben, we are doomed. I mean, I don't. I don't want to be pessimistic about the. The state of human affairs, but I do. I do worry that we are doomed. They really named it Genie. They really. They named Genies.
- [02:55]
Ben Lindbergh
Not just one. Multiple Genies. Yeah.
- [02:58]
Meg Riley
Okay. Okay. Well, that is a sign of the coming apocalypse.
- [03:03]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, you know that this is. This slap will be smut that people will try to make the players be.
- [03:09]
Meg Riley
Horny, Why would you write it like what you're doing is. Is turning big leaguers into like a cam girl. I mean, and I don't mean any disrespect to the cam girls, to be clear. Like, you, you do your business. Like, that's. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not here to shame. That's not. I just don't think that that's what these guys probably want. It's going to happen immediately. It's not like, how long does it take? It's like, yeah, how dirty? Is the first question that they get. You know what I mean?
- [03:40]
Ben Lindbergh
Like, yes, I'm sure they will attempt to build in some safeguards, but people always find a way around those safeguards almost immediately, seemingly. So it's going to get weird for sure. And yeah, I don't know if this is just like players are tired of talking to us on the podcast, they'll just send a Brent Rooker to talk to next off season. No, he would never. He enjoys talking to us so much. But, but really, I don't know. I mean, everyone else is cashing in on this nonsense, so I guess get yours, but also don't. Because, like, why would you. How much could this possibly. Is this worth it to you? What? We don't have the numbers here, but there would have to be just an enormous payout to even make me consider selling my soul to do this. It can't possibly reflect what I say this now and then check back in three months and I will have developed an unhealthy attachment to AI John Brebia and we'll just be chatting late into the night.
- [04:40]
Meg Riley
There'll be a story about how you. You have decided you need to marry AI John Brevia.
- [04:47]
Ben Lindbergh
You know, we've all seen the Black Mirror episodes. We've all seen her. We've. We know how this goes, right? And yet even though we've seen it in sci fi so many times, we are still plunging full speed ahead. So as far as I know, MLB and the players associ innovating in this space. Maybe this has happened in other sports and leagues, but I. I don't really recall hearing about it. Anyway, I'm sure this will just go great and it will all be wonderful and this will be the last time that we ever talk about it because it will just be such a. A smashing success.
- [05:18]
Meg Riley
What would it be charging you for?
- [05:21]
Nick Pocoro
I don't.
- [05:21]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, I guess once you get so attached to AI John Brebia that you can't live without him it's just like.
- [05:27]
Meg Riley
To continue the conversation, please deposit 25 cents.
- [05:30]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, Bas, I don't even want to think. I mean, you know, now we're really verging onto OnlyFans territory in app experiences, digital goods. I'm sure it's all perfectly pg.
- [05:44]
Meg Riley
These gentlemen are busy with other stuff. And I know that this is AI John. Poor John Brevi is like, how am I at the center of this?
- [05:55]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. The company could not say which players will initially be available. I. I doubt John Brevia is one on the list. Also, like, what will this be trained on, I wonder? Because if it's supposed to reflect. Okay. Their voices are out there. Sure. If you want to do synthetic AI. Yeah. Is it just like their post game, you know, when they hit the game winning homer? Are we pre programming in generic interests? Do the players have to, like, divulge personal details? Are they signing up to actually try to make this thing sound like them? This is just so weird and so strange.
- [06:31]
Meg Riley
Boy, I just, you know.
- [06:33]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, in similarly weird but less dismaying news, I got an email from the Blue Jays about their promotions and event schedule. I don't know why I'm on that mailing list, but other must have items. It lists Addison Barger couch t shirt. April 11th. And it's just a T shirt. It's not a couch. It's not like a bobblehead of him on the couch. The first 15,000 fans will get to wear. Get to wear, as if this is a privilege. Will get to wear a photo of Barger tucked under the covers on the couch while using his laptop. Would you want to wear that even if you were charmed by this story, and we talked about it plenty, but would you want to bear a T shirt emblazoned with the image of Addison Barger using his laptop in a couch in David Schneider's room before gave one of the World Series. At least it's not AI Addison Barger, I guess. But I just. I don't know that I would want to sport this on my person.
- [07:34]
Meg Riley
I have a lot of jokes, and I think that, like, none of them are. Sometimes you have to think to yourself, hey, I'm in the bbwaa. I might need to have a conversation with Addison Barger at some point.
- [07:48]
Ben Lindbergh
The real one, not the chatbot.
- [07:49]
Meg Riley
Honest to goodness, Addison, what audio do I want to exist of me discussing Addison Barger? If I have to talk to Addison Barger? And I. I think I'm gonna let that sort of be my. My light here. And I'm gonna not make any of the jokes I wanted to make, but simply say no. I don't think that's a, A T shirt that I would wanna wear. You know, I think that would be a no for me.
- [08:17]
Ben Lindbergh
Limited quantities, first come, first serve, I guess, you know, 15,000 only. Sure. It will be just huge on the secondary market. They'll all be on ebay immediately. Just the scalpers just selling the Addison Barger couch.
- [08:34]
Meg Riley
I just think that. No, no, no, no. I'm not gonna. Okay.
- [08:39]
Ben Lindbergh
Very judicious, prudent. We will move on. And we should anyway, because we have a lot on the docket today. Namely, we are embarking for the 14th time on the effectively wild season preview series. Once more onto the breach and we are beginning with the Houston Astros and Chandler Rome and the Arizona Diamondbacks and Nick Pocoro. And what fortuitous timing because we can close the book on from Valdez's Astros career. We'll talk about his new career in just a second. And crucially, we can cover that Carlos Santana signing. We can get to all that. Latest big news headlines from the Diamondback. So we'll do that. And as outlined last time and as we've done for years now, we do all 30 teams, 2 per pod, 15 pods. We will finish before opening day. We go in terms of the projected win totals as of the beginning of this week. We won't adapt them. As those projections change as the spring goes on and we have a rough schedule, we typically don't announce it beforehand because sometimes we deviate from it just based on availability or whatever else. So we will typically give you a heads up about who's coming next at the end of each episode. And it won't be wall to wall previews. It won't be nothing but previews. Oops, all previews. We will have some previews or that we will have some non preview pods sprinkled in there for changes of pace. But as usual, you know, 14th time that we have done this and we will give you a good primer for opening day and talk to people who are covering these teams. And of course at this early it is easier to schedule these conversations. But the people we are scheduling with, it's easier because they're not in camp and pitchers and catchers mostly haven't reported and games haven't started. So the insight is somewhat limited in terms of just being in person, on the scene and having talked to everyone. But we will do the best we can. And most of the big baseball business for the off season is done and a big part of it is got done just in time for us to talk about it. We will not be talking about Isaiah Kiner FFA to the Red Sox. We will not be talking about Miguel and Duhar to the Padre. Still kicking around Miguel and Duhar who know because we've got bigger free agents to fry and and bigger FR to fry and two big contracts to lefties for the Detroit Tigers to talk about because we also have some resolution on the arbitration case of the century or at least the season. Tarek Skubal so maybe we can start with Skubal because this was a pretty momentous case. We don't typically lead with arbitration hearing resolutions, but this was a biggie because of the giant gap between the figures that the team and the player filed. Tigers said we will pay you 19 million and Terex Google said you will pay me 32 million. And the arbitrators decided that Schubal gets his figure. It's either or. They couldn't just go down the middle and Skubal gets his way and he will make $32 million this year after winning his hearing. He is setting new records across the board. He will have the highest salary for an arbitration eligible player by 1 million topping Juan Soto's previous high and will just blow by the previous max annual salary for a player who actually was awarded that salary from a panel which was 19.9 million and that was David Price way back in the day for the Detroit Tigers and the Tigers filed a little bit below how much Price made more than a decade ago. And he will also set a record or gosh like double the record for a raise for an arbitration eligible pitcher. So it's pretty huge. He more than doubled the previous record race. And so this is, I was going to say one small step for Schuble, one giant leap for for player kind. But it's not a small step for Schubel. It's a gigantic leap for Schuble as well. But he did it not only to enrich himself but but there was an aspect of wanting to do it for other players too. And yes, the Players association was was quite involved with this. MLBPA Deputy Executive Director Bruce Meyer provided the rebuttal in the hearing, somehow finding time to to work on Skubal's case in and around arranging the Genies deal for LLM chat.
- [13:17]
Meg Riley
Bot School would imagine that Bruce didn't have his hand in that one, but perhaps not.
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Ben Lindbergh
But you know Skubal is active in labor issues and obviously wanted to raise the ceiling and the reason he was able to do this, as we previewed when we talked about this before is is this little known, seldom used, seldom able to be used provision in arbitration that allows players who have five plus years of service and a quote unquote, special accomplishment and back to back Cy Young awards clearly qualifies. So he was not bound by previous arbitration salaries. He did not have to go by the precedents and the comps and just say, you should pay me this much because this guy made this much in arbitration. He could compare himself to anyone, any major league player, which meant that he could build his case around starting pitchers whose salaries in some cases have exceeded $40 million. And if you can do that, if you can compare yourself to anyone and also you're better than everyone, you know, from a performance standpoint, then you can kind of see why it went Scoopal's way.
- [14:25]
Meg Riley
It's a pretty remarkable ruling. The piece of this that I find the most sort of surprising is that, and granted part of my surprise is predicated on taking the reporting around what Boris said here sort of at face value, but that, you know, we know the Tigers to be a file and trial team, however much that particular bit of phrasing might rankle, because they don't go to trial, they go to hearing and I'm annoying at parties, but that there was not a more sort of fruitful effort to negotiate leading up to the actual hearing and that Skubal side was the side that was reportedly sort of willing to continue those conversations and that the Tigers were not. I try very hard not to sort of take issue with any individual player choosing to sign a pre arbitration extension, choosing to settle in advance of a hearing. There are a lot of reasons that players do that. I think that when you're offered life changing money and you have obligations to yourself and your family and maybe other people in your community, that makes a lot of sense. And some of those deals are, are not bad. You know, that it's not like the players getting worked. But I do think there's like a social labor good to participating in the process, particularly when you have an opportunity to raise the floor. And so I think it's, you know, it's good as a sort of counterweight to all the settlements. We see all the pre arb extensions that sort of take guys out of that process entirely and therefore don't put them in a position to sort of move the needle on the comps that are available. To have someone like Skubal say no, not only am I going to participate in this, but I'm going to be aggressive. When we talked about it initially, I was a little less offended that the Tigers sort of offered what they did. But I am surprised that considering that there were conversations between Skubal's camp and the team prior to filing that they didn't have a better sense of where he would land in terms of the number that he would write down on the card. I mean, I'm sure he didn't write it down, but that his people would write down on the card and sort of exchange. So maybe there's some work that they should do internally to think about their process around arbitrary. But it's, it's fascinating. Like I think it is good for labor that this comp now exists in the pool. I don't know how many players are going to be able to sort of readily avail themselves of it because there aren't a lot of pitchers pre arb arb or free agent that are like Derek Skubal. That's kind of the point. Right. Of him getting this number. I don't know that there were going to be a lot of guys who go through that process and are able to say, well, you know, Skubal got $32 million, so I should get $32 million or I should get 90% of $32 million. You know who's probably the happiest person. Let me rephrase. You know who's the second happiest person on the planet today is probably Paul Skeens. If I'm Paul Skeens, I am sending Tarek Skubal a little present or like a fruit basket, you know, a thank you card, something. Because if. If there is anyone in the existing pre free agency player population who I could think of as really benefiting from this comp, it's probably him.
- [17:59]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah.
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Meg Riley
So I'm sure Paul Skeens as people are like, hell yeah, that's great. Way to go, Scoobs. I also will be really interested to see this is a little more like getting down to brass tacks on the Tigers part. But like they have said that they are not going to trade school regardless of the outcome of this hearing. I wonder if that will remain true because the timing of the, the of the Fromberg signing with his arbitration hearing is, you know, one could raise an eyebrow if one were inclined to. To raise an eyebrow, you know. Yeah, we're sort of eyebrow raising inclined.
- [18:33]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. Because Framber was the last top 10 type free agent still out there and he was just dangling all offseason and they chose to sign him or they ended up signing him to on the day of the hearing, after the hearing, but before the result of the hearing was announced. And so yes, if, if they're willing to pony up and keep both of them, then, then good for them that they took the plunge on Fromber before they even knew how much they would be on the hook for with Skubal. That's assuming that what transpired in the hearing room didn't make it very clear which way things were going to go. Maybe they actually had some sense of what the paycheck to Schubal would be. So yes, I, I hope and I think, but also I hope that they have just decided that why not both, that they're going to go with two top of the rotation lefties. I guess only there can be only one rotation topper on a team. But each of these guys is, is capable of topping some rotations in many of rotations. So that's good and needed and admirable because continuing a trend, the Tigers were one of the teams that we talked about recently when we said who had sort of a disappointing inactive off season, maybe could have done more, was in a position to do more. We listed the Tigers. Well, one good way to get out of the doghouse there is to sign Farmer Valdez. Assuming that you also do keep Tareks Goople. And yeah, there's been reporting suggesting that they will and I always thought they would and you know, if they get off to a terrible start or something, I'm sure they could, yeah, they could entertain offers there, but they're less likely to get off to a terrible start if they have Frankfurt Valdez. So that rotation now projects to be the second best in baseball right after the Red Sox. It's, you know, separated from the Red Sox projection in the depth charts at Fangrass by a tenth of a win, but ahead of the Dodgers. It's a much stronger group because you start with Skubal. Obviously, you know, doesn't get much better than that, but there's a lot of uncertainty elsewhere in that rotation. Just, you know, it's Flaherty, Mize Rhys, Rhys Olson, Troy Melton. I just blended Olson and Melton somehow. Drew Anderson. Like there are a lot of guys, but almost everyone. It's a huge step down from Skubal, but, but it's a lot smaller step down small steps again from Skubal to Framber Valdez. And because we happen to have Chandler, who has been covering Franver Valdez for years and watching him and seeing him pitch firsthand. We are about to ask him about the way that Framber's offseason played out and what kind of guy he is and what teams can expect from him. But clearly just a huge addition for the Tigers that I think cements their status as the favorites in this division if they weren't already.
- [21:27]
Meg Riley
And we can, we can maybe talk here about some of the particulars of Fromberg's deal like the trampoline contract. Trampoline contract. And I think that, you know, if, if you're looking for a reason to take at face value the idea that they will not trade school barring sort of a collapse like we talked about. Although, you know, it's a, it's a bunch of very rational people and there's a lot of beep bop boop that goes on in every front office. But if you're the Tigers, do you believe a first half collapse? Aren't you just like.
- [22:00]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, good point.
- [22:01]
Meg Riley
What is, what is splits? You know, what do we, what do we even make of these here splits? Right?
- [22:06]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, that'll come up later on this episode. You're right though. Yeah.
- [22:09]
Meg Riley
It's like, I don't know, maybe we have some weird magic going on or curse. We're not clear what direction. I guess curses are magic, but not all magic is curses. Sort of like a square rectangle situation. But I think that when you think about how Fromer's contract lines up, you know, let's assume that they, they hold on to Scubal and they, they don't have any intention of trading him barring like being in a really unenviable playoff spot come, come the deadline, he's still a free agent after the end of the season. Now they're not precluded from re signing him. But you know, I think that the consensus, particularly given the sort of dearth of good free agents, is that he is going to get a haul with the usual caveats we apply of not knowing exactly how a potential lockout will affect that. The last time guys signed big deals right before the lockout. So who knows. So you know, Skubal's going to be a free agent. And the way that Fromberg's deal is structured is it famously has, you know, the, the ability for him to opt out, but to opt out after the 2027 season. This is in a one year, three.
- [23:19]
Ben Lindbergh
Years, 115 opt out after 2027, $20 million signing bonus, some amount of deferred funnel.
- [23:27]
Nick Pocoro
Right.
- [23:27]
Meg Riley
So the AV will be a little bit lower and so. But he Assuming we have a full slate of games, will be in position to just slide into the number one spot for them in 2027 if they aren't able to resign school. So I, I think that the sort of best version of this deal is one where Skubal is still around for year one. I mean, that's true regardless, best pitcher in base that there is such nice sort of compatibility between that. And then they get this, this year of presumably good Fromer when they might really need him to like be the dude at the top of that group. So I like it. You know, we, we talk in our conversation with Chandler about some of the makeup stuff that, you know, may or may not have impacted his market. But I, I struggled to think of a better sort of pitcher to manager fit given Hinch's familiarity with Fromber. You know, think it's a really nice fit and given how long he stayed on the market. Like, I think he did pretty well for himself here. You know, he's 32. Like, I think that given the ways in which his, his profile was a little bit clouded. Although I think, you know, he was still a consensus top free agent pretty good here. So how about that?
- [24:45]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, no few pitchers, few starters, more durable, more consistent than from over the past four seasons, at least. Yeah, I mean, superficially he's not coming off his strongest season, but under the hoods, more or less 4 win player. Yeah, same old from her, basically. You know, you can, you can count on him. Energizer from ber. So now the Tigers will benefit from that. And yeah, it's a lot of money going to lefty starters. That was not really on the books before yesterday and now is. But also, yes, they might just have Scuba for one more year. They might have from her for two more years. It's, it's a lot in terms of AAV to take on, but it's not a lot in terms of total commitment. So, yeah, good for them for making the move. I feel bad. I pity Pirates fans even more than usual because in the hours just before the Tiger signed proper, they really want you to know.
- [25:43]
Meg Riley
They're trying, man. They want you to know so bad.
- [25:45]
Ben Lindbergh
A preemptive. We tried. Ken Rosenthal came out with a story. Pirates emerge as aggressive suitor for Fra Valtes. And I thought that was weird when I saw it because we were just talking about how imbalanced the Pirates are pitching batting wise. And it would be weird if they finally splurged on someone and it were another pitcher, but I would have still said good for you for spending on someone. But no, of course probably Pirates fans didn't get their hopes up too high and if they did, they were very quickly dashed. But the turnaround there for from headline and rumor to oh, we actually have a deal here and no, it's not the Pirates was sort of amusing but also sort of sad if you are a Pirates person.
- [26:27]
Meg Riley
I don't want to overstate my insider status by any means, but I was having conversations with folks prior to the Fromber signing about how the market was heating up and like a lot of names were offered up in terms of potential team fit. So my sense is that this was kind of all over the place, but I don't know how close. Let me put it this way, my sense and again, I don't want to overstate my my bonafides here, but my sense is that like they were much closer to maybe signing a Genios Suarez than they really ever were to signing Robert Valdez. But I do think they they tried. In both cases, they might have entered a new condition where there is sincere effort and they are bumping up against the reputation that they have cultivated in terms of a commitment to winning. And so I think that to the extent that there is sincere effort, that is a positive step forward. But now Pittsburgh might be entering that danger zone where what you really need is, is a willingness to overspend.
- [27:36]
Ben Lindbergh
Yes. Which is not something Bob Nutting is known for.
- [27:39]
Meg Riley
I don't think we're quite there yet, which doesn't mean that there isn't effort being expended on the part of the front office to try to get some of these guys. But you might need to do a cano at some point where you're just like, screw it, we'll bet against ourselves. We really need this guy to come here.
- [27:55]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. Okay. And last note, it's been a rough week for media and sports media specifically, and sadly we could say that about many weeks. But this week in particular, obviously, most notably with the Washington Post laying off about a third of its newsroom, including the entire sports desk, a storied sports desk, shutting down. There were also some other announcements, mlb.com layoffs and just various things just kind of coinciding. Even Sam and Grant and Andy's podcast kind of twisting in the wind at the Athletic, as Grant mentioned on Blue sky on Wednesday. And look, it's just a super unstable industry and has been for a while and that just is getting worse in all ways, partly because of everything being chatbots, but not entirely because of that. In this case. Clearly a lot of self sabotage happening with the Washington Post, and an owner, of course, who would barely have felt the impact of continuing to employ these fine people whose livelihoods he took on when he purchased that paper and then sort of sank with some of his strategic decisions over the past year or so. So I lament that, and our thoughts go out to all of the people who've been laid off. And I don't even know what we will do for our Nationals preview segments. Not that this is about us, but just, you know, that's one minor manifestation. When I drew up the schedule for team previews last week, I assumed that we would be talking to a Nationals beat writer from the Washington Post, as we typically do. Well, now there's no such thing and no such person. I mean, the people still exist. They're just not doing that right now. So I hope that these people will catch on somewhere somehow. And I'm sure many a substack will be started. You know, many a newsletter, which is just the general fragmentation of media. I mean, cling to any life raft you can, of course, but it gets tougher and tougher for any one person to support all of these people, to access all of their work. So the work just gets more and more paywalled and siloed. And that has its downsides, too. So just a really rough week for a lot of people. So our thoughts are with them.
- [30:19]
Meg Riley
Yeah, you know, you want to have, like, something profound to say, and you kind of don't because we've gone through so many of these. The Post feels particularly galling just because, like, the entire operating budget of that paper is a rounding error for Jeff Bezos. You know, you have to have a sort of weaponized degree of indifference to what you're doing, or I think maybe more likely a very clear understanding of what you're doing and it working exactly the way you want it to. But, you know, I am sad and angry for friends and colleagues of ours who do very good work and do not deserve to lose their jobs. I'm sad for the people who, you know, relied on the Post as their local paper. You know, it wasn't just the Sports Desk, although that obviously has the most direct impact on this podcast. But they took huge cuts to their Metro section. They shuttered their book section. They had foreign correspondents in Ukraine who got laid off. How do you even. How do you even organize that zoom call as an aside, like, and how are you making sure that person gets out? So we are, I think, every day less and less well informed by design. And I think that that has devastating consequences for us as sports fans on the sort of low end of the overall impact and for us as citizens on the high end. And that really sucks. So I don't know, I don't. I agree with you that like, grab whatever life raft you can, but I hope that people appreciate like some of this work needs to be done with the backing of an institution like the Washington Post. And that's true in the sports section. It's not like there aren't deep investigations where it really helps to have like indemnification, where it helps to have like really good First Amendment lawyers on your side. But some of the work that gets done at big papers like this is facilitated by being able to be bold, in part because you know that when the person in power that you're going after invariably comes to you with a subpoena, that you're able to say, my lawyer's right there. So some of this work just can't be done as bravely as the reporters who do it want to because they are rightly afraid of the potential litigation that might follow.
- [32:48]
Ben Lindbergh
So it just, or just the months and the resources it takes to do investigative journalism well. And if you have to constantly be cracking, cranking something out because you hung up your shingle and you need to drive subscriptions, it just doesn't really afford the luxury of taking that time to dig deeper. So it's tough. I mean, people pitch in where they can and they sign up to support people. But it's hard for independent media to function the way that a gigantic newspaper can. And you know, people joke about what if you just bundled all of the newsletters together and then you would have a newspaper. Yeah, maybe that's a radical idea. It's like people joking about, you know, reinventing the cable bundle basically because you're just subscribing to X number of streaming services. But yeah, it's really hard to just have a one to one replacement. And of course the economic model has changed in some ways that are just, you know, some of them are, are actively just sort of sabotage and some are just probably beyond the power of really anyone to head off. And you just have to kind of roll with the punches. And you know, you and I have been fairly fortunate in remaining employed at the same places for a number of years. And you just can't count on that in this business. Not that media is unique in that respect. Obviously we're just the ones who talk about it all the time because we do podcasts and write about it. But. But many other people are dealing with that sort of uncertainty.
- [34:21]
Meg Riley
And I look at our Patreon exit surveys, I know the tilt. It's people who are losing jobs and want to subscribe but just have to cut costs because they're in a different spot financially than they thought they were going to be.
- [34:34]
Ben Lindbergh
Yes. And not that I want to parlay other people's layoffs into a funding drive for us, but it really is very valued and appreciated that we just don't have to have that sort of uncertainty doing this podcast. I mean, I gu. Fangraph's dark overlord, David Appleman could pull the plug tomorrow if he wanted to, but he would never. But. But you know, we're independently funded by people who listen and support, and that's the only way that you're not just sort of subject to the whims of some billionaire or some tech titan or.
- [35:05]
Meg Riley
Gambling ads or that.
- [35:07]
Ben Lindbergh
Yes. Right. So thanks to all of you for supporting us so that we can do a 14th annual, effectively wild season preview series and we can actually survive and hopefully thrive for the duration of that time. There are downsides to everyone having to just put up their Patreon or whatever it is, but we are very grateful that since we have done that, you have supported us. So thank you.
- [35:33]
Meg Riley
Yes, thank you.
- [35:34]
Ben Lindbergh
All right, let's take a very quick break and we will be back with Chandler Rome to talk about the Astros, followed by Nick Borro to discuss the Diamondbacks.
- [35:59]
I want to learn about new statistics.
- [36:03]
Don't want to hear Van Dyke. Well, we are joined now by the Houston Astros beat writer for. For the Athletic and the co host of Crush City territory, Chandler Rome. Welcome back, Chandler.
- [36:39]
Hi, Ben. Hi, Meg. This is interesting to be hitting leadoff.
- [36:42]
I know you just. You gotta have a solid PA podcast appearance. Just let the guys behind you see some questions, you know, the guests behind you who will be following you, see what sort of stuff we have in this year's preview series. Just make us work a little bit. I guess that's your goal for this interview.
- [37:01]
I'll. I'll do my best.
- [37:02]
Okay, well, maybe we can start by asking about now officially a former Houston Astro from Provoltes. Was there ever any consideration of a reunion? If so, why not? Were the character concerns real? Significant? Overblown? How did that all play out?
- [37:22]
I don't think there was ever a realistic chance from her was going to come back to Houston. You know, maybe if they had not signed Tatsuya Imai and we had gotten to this point and the, the market had gone the way it did, maybe they could have gotten him on a shorter term deal with a lower aav. I don't think Jim Crane would have ever paid him $40 million in a season. But I think it was time. I just think it was time for a fresh start for Fromer. I think it was time for everyone to kind of go their separate ways. I know in saying that it would seem to validate some of the character concerns that are out there. But I'll say this, you talk to his teammates and you talk to his coaches and you talk to the people in the organization that have been around him for his entire Asher's tenure and they love the guy. They constantly rave about his work ethic. One of the hardest workers on the team. If you look at the guy, you can tell like he doesn't miss a day in the gym, he doesn't miss a day working out. Like, this is a large, strong man, that it's not a situation where work ethic or any of that is in question. It's been well reported and well out there that, you know, he has done a lot of work with sports psychologists in the Astros organization to get better at the mental side of the game. He was, it was something that really, really bothered him the first few years of his big league career. He has gotten a lot better. Like he has made a lot of immense strides in that and you can even watch it when he pitches, does his breathing exercises. He'll come off the mound every now and then and like take a lap around the mound when things aren't going well for him. That's something that the, the sports psychologists have kind of told him to do just things to calm himself down on the mound. But I think it's impossible to look at how the market played out for him and how his free agency went. It's impossible to look at it and not think that. The cross up controversy with Cesar Salazar and just some other stuff too, because, I mean, no one really talks about this, but I mean, a month before the cross up stuff with Salazar, he threw his coaching staff under the bus unprompted about outfield positioning after one of his starts. So there's, there's some stuff there. It's some stuff that again, AJ Hinch knows him very well, managed him in 2018, 2019, had him in spring trainings even before that. I think he's going to a place with AJ, who, AJ's one of the better players, managers out there. He's got a Psychology degree from Stanford. Like, he knows how to kind of get into people's minds. So I think FROM will do well in Detroit. And I think, you know, for the Astros, he is probably one of the most underappreciated members of their golden era. A player development success story in every sense of the word, and someone that really helped them absorb the losses of Garrett Cole, Justin Verlander, Zach Grinke, Charlie Morton. Like, all these starters that they let go, you know, from. And his effectiveness really, really helped offset those losses.
- [40:28]
Meg Riley
They had that big wave of starters depart, and then they've had other attrition sense. And you mentioned one of the guys they're looking to. To sort of be a part of this new look Astros rotation in Imai. So I'm curious, sort of what they saw in him and his performance in NPB that intrigued them and also how they landed on what has become a very fashionable contract structure this offseason.
- [40:53]
Ben Lindbergh
It was pretty clear that they went into the off season with two directives. One was to obviously bolster the pitching staff. They knew that From Valdez was very likely not going to come back. They had so many injuries last year, and, you know, they had more injuries last year than most teams endure, but they just did not have the depth to maybe overcome it. They were using guys that from the minor leagues, they were using guys off the waiver wire that they would not have envisioned using that early in the season and throwing those sort of leverage innings. So that was the first part. The second part was that Jim Crane made it pretty known that he wanted to have a presence in Asia, in the Pacific Rim. You know, the ballpark was renamed Daikin park last January. For those that are unaware, Daikin is an H Vac company located in Osaka, Japan. And through that partnership, you know, Jim Crane took a couple of trips to Japan. And in one trip in particular, the Daikin executives kind of took him around and him and the contingent around Japan, and he got to see with his own eyes kind of how the baseball setup was there, all the stadiums, everything. And he, from that day on said, we're gonna make a bigger investment here. They have scouts now in Seoul, South Korea. They have scouts in Taiwan, and they have scouts in Tokyo. They wanted to make an investment in the Asia Pacific Rim market. Now, I'm not sure that signing Tetsuya Imai is a result directly of that reinvest that that investment of resources, because obviously, Imai was well known. Like, the Ashers didn't go find him, like, with their new scouts over there. Like he was very well known guy. But, you know, Jim Crane said it probably didn't help this contract, but it'll help in the future in terms of their investment in Asia and the Pacific Rim. So again, now, all that being said, Jim Crane's never given a free agent deal longer than five years. He's never guaranteed any player more than $151 million on any contract. If you looked at all the pundits, the projections, MLB trade rumors, the athletic, everybody that projected what Tatsuya Imai's contract was going to be at the beginning of the season, the Ashers were never going to give him 8 for 190 or 6 for 170, which is what you kind of saw floating around there. But as the market began to not materialize, you know, Scott Boris was very impressed with how the Astros handled Yuse Kikikuchi at the 2024 trade deadline. He came over, pitched very well, they made a ton of adjustments with him, and Scott used that to A, tell Tatsuya Imai that this is a place where he could thrive and B, he, he knew as well that the Ashers wanted to make this kind of mark in Asia. So it really kind of all fell into perfect harmony of they needed a deal when the market didn't manifest. You know, Jim Crane is very, very amenable to doing the Short term high AAV deals, not $40 million for Fomber Valdez, but 18 million with the opportunity to get up to 21 million. He's perfect with that. So I think in a best case scenario for everyone, this is an 11 month pairing. Tatsuya Imai, well, if it all goes according to plan, he pitches very well. The Astros benefit from him pitching well. He opts out after the first year and goes and gets on the open market. Maybe the contract that a lot of people predicted he'd get this winter and the contract that Jim Crane's always been loathe to give, you can make a.
- [44:25]
Pretty compelling case that the Astros missed out on a postseason appearance last year. I know everyone so sad not to see the Astros for once in the playoffs. Poor Astros. Hard for them. But you could make a good case that it was the injuries that kept them out. Certainly baseball prospectus and also Denzy Borski at fan graphs late last year had them with the most projected war lost to injuries. What are they making of that? If anything, it doesn't have to mean more than just lousy luck in one year. But do they see it as something systemic? Are they trying to do anything Differently. Is that having any effect on the WBC participation or non participation of Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa?
- [45:08]
The answer to all that is yes. They parted ways with their head athletic trainer Jeremiah Randle after the season. Jeremiah had been in that role for about 10 years. He had been here for a while and it should be noted when the Ashers won the World Series in 2022, they were the healthiest team in baseball. They, they did a good job preventing injuries. And Jeremiah Randall ran the athletic trading staff then too. So I don't think it's a situation where the trainer forgot how to practice medicine or the trainer forgot, you know, everything he was taught was clear that they had to do something different. Just the Jordan Alvarez saga was quite frankly an embarrassment for them. Jake Myers testing out an injured calf in right field five hours before a random game in August, them clearing him to play, putting him in the lineup and then he crumbles to the ground in pain, running out to his position to start the first inning. It was an embarrassing kind of scene for them. And some of it too was, I'll be honest with you, some of it was, it was kind of self inflicted PR mess. They hid behind a nonsensical or just untrue rule that trainers were not allowed to talk to the media due to CBA regulations. While there are at least five other teams that make their trainers available to media either in informal or on record settings. The communication between the players and maybe the public, the communication between from the staff to the coaches, it just, it was, it. There was a complete breakdown in every sense of it. So we have asked many, many times what other things they have changed this offseason. Dana Brown has said that they took a deep dive into their return to play procedure and that they've changed some things up. They have refused to reveal what those things are, but they do want you to know that they've changed some stuff. So I guess we'll all find out together what that is. Now, now the interesting thing is you look at the WBC like you mentioned, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa will not play for Team Venezuela and Team Puerto Rico respectively. It is true that neither of them received the insurance required on their contracts to play. That, that is, that is true and that is the foremost reason why they are not going to play. Carlos Correa told me at the Athletic a couple of weeks ago that Jim Crane called him and said that because the team had so many injuries last season, he would rather not have him risk that he would rather have him in West Palm beach getting ready for the season. And so that just goes to show that while insurance is a factor, Jim Crane was not keen on some of his guys playing in this tournament, which is fascinating given that the Astros are hosting a round of pool play with Team USA and then could have Team Puerto Rico if they advance from their pool. Team Puerto Rico's quarterfinal would be at Dyken Park. So it's a very strange scenario there. I can't for the life of me figure out why they would want. I mean, I can. It's money, but I can't why they would want to host this tournament so bad and then, you know, actively try to prohibit their players from participating. Jeremy Pena is going to play for the Dominican Republic, so I guess they can point to that as saying where we're going to let some guys play. But look, Carlos Correa's injury history is pretty well documented. Jose Altuve, the last time he played in the wbc, got hit by a pitch and missed the first month and a half of the season. It all goes hand in hand of, you know, their rash of injuries and the absence of two pretty seismic figures in Latin American baseball.
- [48:46]
Meg Riley
Well, one guy who managed to stay healthy all of last year and took great effect was Hunter Brown, who took a step forward. He struck out more guys, he walked fewer guys, he gave up fewer home runs. He changed up his pitch mix a little bit. It all amounted to a 2, 4, 3 ERA, a FIP in the low threes, and 4 1/2 wins, by our reckoning. So what went right for Brown and what are the team's expectations of him this year? Because he, at least as we have it, constituted on the Russia resources depth charts. And you can tell me if I should tell Jason and John differently, but we have him as their number one starter. Tell us about Hunter Brown.
- [49:26]
Ben Lindbergh
Oh, unquestioned number one starter. I think y' all are fully safe with that. It was funny. We just did a episode with Josh Miller, the pitching coach for Crush City Territory, and we were talking about Hunter, and everyone always brings up, he pitched, I believe, the third game last year, and they were playing the Mets. They opened with a series with the Mets and the first inning of Hunter Brown's season. He faced Soto, Lindor and Alonzo. He hit 99, I believe, four times in the inning. Struck out Soto and Lindor and made them look absolutely foolish while doing it. And it was like none of us had ever seen this out of him. Like, my jaw was, like, on the floor watching this. And that it sounds so cliche, but that, that set the tone for his entire season. It was just a different kind of way the ball was coming out of his hand. He did a lot more mobility and movement and flexibility work last off season to increase a little bit of his velocity to move more efficiently down the mound. And I mean you saw it, the four seamer was up from 96 and 24 to 96.6 last year. I know that doesn't seem like much, but I mean he was, he was flirting with 100 when he was emptying the tank. I mean it was, he was throwing harder. He kind of shelved the, it's a kind of a hybrid slider cutter thing he throws. He kind of, he kind of shelved that this past season and really kind of focused on the two fastballs, the four seam and the two seam. The two seams obviously been the, really the key to his career. He implemented it in the middle of the 2024 season and really you can kind of look at the date in which he implemented the two seamer in 2024. I believe it was like May 5th. And since May 5th, 2024, he's like second or third in all of baseball in like every starting pitching category and I think only schools ahead of him in most of them. So it's not a stretch to say since he added that sinker, he's been like the third or fourth best pitcher in baseball. So it all came together for him. He had a full year of the sinker, the curveball. Look, I think they would like him just, and Josh even said this on our pod a little bit ago, so they would probably like him to strike a few more guys out. Just given the stuff, you would think that he maybe could strike a few more guys out, maybe miss some more bats against right handed hitters. So they're trying, they're tinkering with some stuff but they don't want to, they don't want to. This, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. They would very much like a repeat of what he did last year. But I think it was also just a confidence thing too. Like you saw the confidence growing. Just start by, start with him because I think, I don't think a lot of people really appreciate like how close he was in 2024 to be to being sent to the minor leagues like in the middle of May, like the Astros were prepared to send him to triple A and they had a roster thing happen to where they were going to delay it. And then he added the Sinker, like the next week he actually did it well. His only relief appearance of that 2024 season was when he added the sinker. They noticed that like, all right, we'll give him a couple more turns in the rotation and the rest is history. So he is their unquestioned ace now. Just the confidence, the kind of bulldog mentality, the he's got a presence on the mound that you did not see him have really at any point in his career. And I think as he kept stacking the good starts last year, it just really, really started to show out.
- [52:53]
Well, while we're on the subject, I guess we can stick with the rotation here. So we talked about Brown, we talked about Imai. We might as well go through the rest. A couple of of returning arms, Christian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. Who have made a total of. Well, I didn't do the math quickly enough, but not enough starts for the astros purposes. Only 15 for Javier over the past couple years. And McCullers of course came back from missing multiple entire seasons to make 13 starts, 16 games last year. So the health, the outlook of those two and then also two of the other big additions this off season, Mike Burrows coming over from the Pirates in the three team trade and Ryan Weiss coming back from Korea.
- [53:38]
So they opened the season with 26 games in 28 days. So Joe Espada has already been pretty forthright. They're going to open the season in a six man rotation. Part of it because of that calendar, part of it because Tetsuya Imai coming over from npb. He pitched every fifth day in npb. They want to make his transition easy. So they're going to open the season in a six man rotation. I would think heading into the spring training you can pretty much put in pen 4 guys in that rotation. That would be Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Christian Javier. You know, Javier, I think Christian Javier is the key to maybe their entire season, certainly the key to their rotation maybe jumping from middle of the road to maybe a top 10 rotation in baseball. They started to see toward the end of last season with Christian Javier. They started to see some of the characteristics on the fast, fastball return. They started to see a lot of like the movement and the data that they saw pre surgery. They started to see that toward the end of last year, but by the time they started to see it, it was kind of too late. So you know, last year for, for Javier was really a just get him back on the field, let him get into a rotation, let him pitch, I think he was 14 or 15 months post op. I think we all understand that the first, you know, handful of starts back from tj, even the first, you know, half a season back from tj it's tough, right? You don't see you don't get the immediate return to pre injury form. So what they're banking on is he had a full healthy off season that they're going to get something closer to the 2022 version of Christian Javier this year. And if they get that, then they have a pretty formidable one. Two of Hunter Brown and Christian Javier because this was a guy in 2022, Christian Javier, he started a no hitter in the World Series. He started a no hitter at Yankee Stadium, was unhittable at times and really kind of can be that, that high end number two starter that they really don't have right now. So they need him. You know, Mike Burroughs was somebody they targeted pretty early on in the off season. Stop me if you've heard this before, but they would like him to throw his sinker more. That's that. That is something that they have already communicated to him that they would like him to use a sinker more. They like maybe the intangibles with him. They like kind of the competitiveness, kind of the tenacity on the mound. They think they can do some tinkers with some stuff with his secondaries, but he given the prospect capital they gave up to acquire him, I'd be stunned if he was not in their season opening rotation. So you've got those four guys. You'd kind of have to say that Spencer arrogetti and Lance McCullers probably have the upper hand going into camp just off of, of you know, major league track record and experience that they would have the upper hand for those final two spots. But make no mistake, like there's going to be some, some pretty legit competition for that fifth and sixth rotation spot. You mentioned Ryan Weiss, he's a guy that has, you know, was very good in KBO last year. Got signed with the Astros in no small part because he wanted to start. Like he, he's been very vocal that he wants to start. If he goes to West Palm beach and pitches well, then he could certainly crack the rotation. They've got former, top former Blue Jays prospect Nate Pearson. They signed him in October. They're going to stretch him out to be a starter as well. Maybe he could crack, you know, maybe the back end of their rotation as well. They're going to give him a chance to do the Same thing. They've got some prospects, some guys that made their debuts last year. AJ Blueball, you know, maybe Miguel Yoa. Jason Alexander is not a prospect, but he turned in like the best pitcher in the league for a month and a half randomly last year. Year just carried them in August, so they've got some options. But I think on track record alone, you probably look at Arrogetti and McCullers and with McCullers specifically, because I know you guys asked about him. I have no idea what to expect, to be completely honest with you. He still can spin it very, very well. Like the spin has not gone away. Still got the slider. It's one of the better sliders that's in the Astro system. He's got the curveball, obviously the changeup's very good, but the velocity, he's always probably going to be now at, you know, 91 to 93 with the sinker. And I think in some ways he's kind of struggling a little bit of how to pitch with that decreased velocity. So he's in the last year of his five year, $85 million contract extension. They put him in the bullpen last year and it was one of those instances where it didn't go well. He's not suited to be out there just in terms of being a long man and, and when you talk about running a six man rotation out there with a shorthanded bullpen, you can't just put a guy in the bullpen and not use him. And that was pretty much what McCullers was towards the end of the year. So again, he's had a healthy off season, his first healthy off season in a very long time. I think his salary, I think his stature and just what he's done in the org. What he's done in the league, I think they'll give him a chance to pitching the rotation, see how it goes. But I don't know how long the leash is going to be on him because there were times last year where it looked okay, he struck out like 13 guys facing the A's. Once he went to Dodger Stadium and shut the Dodgers down. So it's in there. But there were way too many low efficiency games, way too many, you know, three and four inning starts where he's walking the ballpark and just couldn't get outs that. I don't know how long that's going to be feasible to this year if that re. If that occurs again.
- [59:09]
Meg Riley
I feel like every time we've talked to you about Jeremy Pena in The last couple of years it's been, why hasn't this guy been able to make good on the promise we saw in his rookie year or here that saw him win World Series mvp? Right. He sure made good on it this past season. Just a dramatic step forward in production, in value. Still a very strong field of and was worth almost six wins, 135 WRC plus. I could go on and on about his batted ball characteristics. So what changed for Pena? What does he attribute this step forward to? And how permanent does it feel to you?
- [59:47]
Ben Lindbergh
It feels pretty permanent to me because Meg, like, like we've said, and I think I said it on the last season preview episode too, like after 2022, if you looked at 23 and 24, like all of the underlying stuff kept getting better. Like he, he wasn't chasing as much, he wasn't hitting the ball on the ground as much. Like all of the stuff that you wanted to see get better was getting better. It just maybe wasn't translating into, you know, the counting stats into those results. But it's why it feels lasting to me because he kept doing that this year and it just translated, you know, he had the lowest ground ball rate of his career. He had the highest rate of pulling the ball in the air in his career. He's a right handed hitter at Dyke park, which means if you pull the ball in the air a good bit, you probably have a chance of getting into the Crawford boxes, which he did on a good, good bit of occasions last year. He kept the ball off the ground. He destroyed fastballs last year and fastballs had been a little bit of a struggle for him, especially four seamers when he was, when he was maybe not where he wanted to be. He was struggling against fastballs and he was one of the best fastball hitters in the sport last year. So I think it's just a player that's coming into his own. It's a guy that, you know, the makeup has never been the question. You kind of knew that if it all came together, he had that kind of superstar potential. And you saw it last year. If not for getting hit in the ribs by, I believe it was Kate Horton of the Cubs hit him in the ribs of the pitch. If not for that, like he was on track to play 162 games and he would have played, played 162 games last year. But you look at it, I mean he made as much end zone contact last year as he did in 2024. But again, it was just, it was Better contact. He was making better contact. His contact point was better. I think he stopped trying to just because it seemed like every time he'd come to camp the last few years, he'd be doing something different with his swing, he'd be doing something different with how he handled the bat, how he wagged the bat, anything like that. And it finally just seemed like he went out there and played. And it.
- [61:51]
The.
- [61:51]
The. The results were. Were pretty staggering. And it was a. It was a. It was a breakout season that a lot of fans kind of thought was coming in 2023, but, you know, it was a couple years late, but it was needed nonetheless.
- [62:03]
You know, there's been a lot of talk this winter about the rest of the infield and whether there might be moves, and so far, there haven't really been. So how does all of that shake out? Jose Altuve back at second base after the left field experiment? You can tell us how that went and where it went wrong, maybe. And then also Christian Walker, who was just incredibly consistent during his past few seasons in Arizona, and then started extremely slowly, almost Jose Abreu style, slowly went the Astros, although he rebounded later in the season. And then you do have Correa, who. His bat picked up a bit once he was back in Houston. So how does that all shake out? And where does Isak Paredes fit in? And then if Altuve is back at second, then how do you figure out left field so that Jordan doesn't have to be out there? There's a lot of moving pieces here.
- [62:56]
So you're just as confused as I am, Ben?
- [62:58]
Yeah.
- [62:59]
Okay, good.
- [62:59]
I just named all the positions and players just to literally cover the bases.
- [63:03]
As long as. As long as you're just as. As good confused as I am. I've had to address this so many different times. So, like, let's think of the best way to. To guide people through this. This all became a problem because Carlos Correa is back. And the only reason Carlos Correa is back is because Isaac Paredes severely strained his hamstring running down the first baseline in Seattle in last July. So they went into the trade deadline believing that Isak Paredes was going to be out for the season, and they needed a third baseline. Carlos Correa became available. Carlos Correa only wanted to come back to Houston, and it turns out he's been wanting to switch to third base for the last three years. So the Astros were able to facilitate that, and he came back for the end of last season. It was okay because Paredes came back toward the end, but he was only in a DH role. Alvarez was hurt so they could make it work last year, but I think from like the day they made the Correa trade, everyone was asking themselves, like, how is this going to work in 2026? And the answer that you kept getting was, oh, we'll figure that out when it gets here. Well, it's here. And I still don't think they figured it out. The two things that have been made very, very clear this offseason is that Jose Altuve is going to be the team's primary second baseman and that Jordan Alvarez is going to be the team's primary da. Joe Espada has said that on at least five different occasions. Asked every which way about it. He has been firm and resolute in that. He has told both players that that is their positions and that is how they are going to spring training. They will both play some left field, but the majority of their time is going to come at those two positions. The only way that keeping all five of these guys on the roster was going to work is if the DH spot was truly open, is if Joe could use the DH spot and just cycle guys in and out, put Altuve and left some days, put Alvarez and left some days and have the DH spot genuinely be an open slot to use guys. That's not going to be the case. There is not anyone in baseball that you talk to that believes Isak Paredes can handle second base defensively on an everyday basis. He does not have great range range. He does not move laterally very well. I will say he impressed the Astros with his defense. At third base, he was much better than they thought he was going to be. But putting that at second base, it's just not going to going to work. Christian Walker has no defensive versatility other than playing first base, where he's won three Gold Gloves, and he's a better first baseman than Isoc Paredes. Jeremy Pena is not coming off the field. Carlos Correa is not coming off the field. Unless you hand one of Walker or Paredes an outfield glove, which I don't think they're going to do. There's just not a path for regular at bats for all of these guys. I'm sure they could make it work. I'm sure that there are ways they could make this work, but it's going to get really old just in terms of the distraction, in terms of this being talked about incessantly. You know, Isak Paredes, his profile, his offensive Profile is what the Ashers lineup needs. He's perfect for Dyke and Park and he's such a patient hitter and this is a lineup full of free swingers that they need him in the lineup every day and right now they can't figure out a way to do that. Christian Walker led the team in home runs last year. Very fun fact that Christian Walker led the Astros in home runs last year. He had an.800 OPS after the all Star break. It's not as if he's, he's unplayable. This is, I know he came after Jose Abreu so he gets lumped in with a bray a lot. But this is not a Jose Abreu situation like he is. He can be useful. He has value. They're going to have to trade one of Walker or Paredes like we're, we're recording this on February 5th. I would be surprised if the Astros break camp with both Isak Paredes and Christian Walker on the roster. It just doesn't seem like it going to work keeping all these guys happy, keeping them, you know, with the requisite amount of at bats they need to stay locked in. It's a mess and it's something that, you know, I know Dana Brown wants another left handed hitting bat. He wants another left handed hitting outfielder which I think could address the left field vacancy. I think in order to get that, he's going to have to part with one of Paredes or Walker. But given what he wants in return, Paredes is the most valuable trade chip he has.
- [67:37]
Meg Riley
Where does Cam Smith fit into the picture for them? Because one way to not have more of a logjam on the infield is turn infielders into outfielders. An experiment that seems to go fairly well for Smith. I mean all things considered. But the bat sort of swooned. So where does he fit into their offensive picture? Because they, it was a feel good story in the beginning and then things kind of didn't materialize quite the way I imagine he wanted them to.
- [68:04]
Ben Lindbergh
I think we can all agree that Cam Smith probably should not have been on the Ashes major league roster for all 162 games last season. Whether that was, you know, ignoring him, tearing up the Grapefruit League and starting him in the minor leagues and then bringing him up mid season or whether that was demoting him in August when it was pretty clear that he had gotten overmatched by major league pitching. They had went out and acquired Jesus Sanchez from the Marlins because Cam had just not been producing. They had a, an alternative there not that Jesus Sanchez played well. He did not. But in hindsight, it does not seem like great roster management that Cam Smith was on the Astros major league roster the entire season last year. Nonetheless, yes, he was. And now he is entering his second spring training with no guarantees of making the roster again. Dana Brown kind of surprised some people, I think, both in the organization and out the organization by saying at the GM meetings that Cam Smith is not guaranteed a roster spot going into spring training. He's going to have to prove himself a little bit. He's going to have to go out and you know, show that he has made adjustments, show that, that the, the bat and the offensive profile, you know, he's made some adjustments in his swing and things like that. For a guy that was a third baseman until midway through his first big league spring training. He was a Gold Glove finalist in right field last year. Lost it to Willie or Brayu. He's pretty good in right field, like a very good defensive outfielder. So they've got that. They're going to give him some reps in center field in spring training just to see what it looks like. They, they had toyed with that idea last year when he was hitting well, just to give them some more flexibility. So you'll see him play some Grapefruit League games in center field, which I'm fascinated to see, but he's going to have to, he's going to have to hit to make the roster. But the other thing is if Cam Smith doesn't make the roster, then you're looking at Jesus Sanchez, who was pretty awful coming over from the Marlins at the deadline last year. You're looking at him as your everyday right fielder. You're maybe looking at Zach Cole who came up out of nowhere in September and gave them a spark. They want to give him a lot of run in the outfield in spring training and hope he wins a spot. Maybe he's in left field and then you have Jake Myers in center. It, the outfield is very cloudy right now. And again, I think if there is going to be a trade, if there's going to be a trade of Paredes or Walker, I think an outfielder, a major league ready, left handed hitting outfielder is going to come back in that deal and I think then we'll have a little bit of clarity as to what's going on.
- [70:39]
One more guy who got hurt last year to ask about, we could do that all day, but I'll end here with Josh Hater, who ended last season on the IL with a capsule sprain in his throwing shoulder, which he suffered a couple of weeks into August. Any concerns at all about him entering 2026?
- [70:58]
No. Everyone, Dana Brown, Joe Spot have said he's had a fully healthy off season. He's, you know, throwing normal and they're ready. I do think we've probably seen the last of Josh Hayter getting more than three outs in a game. I know he never did that before, but you know, his first two years in Houston, you know, he was very open and saying they invested in me, so I'm willing to go more than three outs. And he, he lived up to that. You know, he, he was a lot more flexible in his usage last year. You know, he, he pitched more than one inning on seven different occasions. And interestingly enough, the shoulder capsule sprain happened after a two inning outing at Yankee Stadium in early August. Now whether that was direct correlation, I'm sure we could debate that for days. But I do think you will see Hater function in a more traditional closer role of he's going to get the ninth inning and you know, if it's, it's still tied after the ninth inning, he's probably not going back out for the 10th. He's probably not going to come and get the last out of the eighth and then go get the final three outs in the ninth. I think you've probably seen the end of that again, unless maybe like they have a playoff spot on the line in the last week of the season, then you maybe see them change their tune a little bit. But I think, you know, for most regular season games, you've probably seen the end of Josh Hater's multiple faulty inning relief experience.
- [72:22]
Meg Riley
Are there any other guys down on the farm who you expect to get, you know, reasonable big league time this year, who fans should be familiar with?
- [72:30]
Ben Lindbergh
I mentioned Zach Cole. He's a, he's a kid that, you know, just one of a very classic Astros player development story. You know, no one really knew who he was. Was a very, very, it was a 10th round pick out of Ball State, 25, 26 year old kid and just, just really got a lot of helium last year. Hit everywhere in the minor leagues. They needed a spark in September, they brought him up and then he hit a homer on the first pitch he saw in the big leagues and it's a lot of power, it's a lot of left handed power, but there's a lot of swing and miss, there's a lot of strikeouts. But the one thing that they like about him is he's fast, he's athletic and he's young, which is something that this team does not have a lot of. Joe Espada has talked his entire managerial tenure about wanting an athletic team, about wanting team speed. And look, it helped last year that Pena had a.370 on base percentage because he's the fastest guy on the team. It helped that Jake Myers had a nice offensive season last year because he's the second fastest guy on the team. So you started to see a little bit of that manifest. They would like more of that. So I think you'll see Zach Cole get a lot of opportunities in spring training. They haven't come out and just outright said it, but they are begging him to win an outfield job in spring training. They are going to give him every opportunity to win the left field job in spring training. A.J. blueball, who came up last year, was a spot, came up for a spot start in May, but really flourished as a reliever down the stretch. I think he ended the season with like 22 consecutive scoreless innings. The stuff really plays up out of the bullpen. You know, he's, he can get up to 97, 98 out of the bullpen when as a starter he's usually like 93, 95. They're going to stretch him out going into camp, but I wouldn't be surprised if he, you know, contends for a role early in the season. Probably not in the season opening rotation, but maybe as a swing guy, maybe as a reliever. But I would look at those two guys and then maybe a little further down the road if you're looking for the next Zach Cole, like a guy that comes out of nowhere, I point you to two guys, Joseph Sullivan and Lucas Spence. Lucas Spence is an undrafted free agent that they got a couple of years ago that just, just really, really hit last year and they really like him. And then Joseph Sullivan's got an interesting family lineage. His grandfather is Pat Sullivan who won the Heisman Trophy. I believe he played for tcu, but I could be wrong. He was a quarterback that won the Heisman Trophy, but he was a, he went to South Alabama, was a seventh rounder in the 2024 draft, a left handed hitting outfielder which they need more of. But he went to the fall league and really impressed. Got up to double A last year and they liked what they saw at him. Both Spence and Sullivan will be in big league camp so maybe circle those names too for kind of maybe later on in the season.
- [75:17]
Meg Riley
We're going to get to our final question in a moment, but I Think maybe as a lead into that. I'm curious, you know, what is your sense of how, how the organization understands itself? Like, where did they feel that they are from a competitive perspective? Because obviously last year was a step back from not only their usual excellence, but just the playoffs in general. And with time to reflect, you know, you, you got to see your hometown in October a lot more than you usually do, which I'm sure was lovely for you. But for the guys in the organization, where do they understand themselves to be? And sort of then. Then Ben will ask his expectation question, but anticipate that next.
- [75:54]
Ben Lindbergh
I think the easiest way to describe it is like this. Dana Brown is in the last year of his contract as the general manager. Joe Spad is in the last year of his contract as a manager. Jim Crane was given an opportunity during the Tatsuya Imai's press conference or after it, I should say he was given an opportunity to like give them a vote of confidence and back them. And basically didn't just said, oh, like we may explore extensions, but. But probably not. Like, they'll probably go to spring training like this. So the easiest way to explain it is they're all in for 2026 because the brain trust of this organization, that's all they can look at. Neither of them are going into spring training with any guarantees that they'll be back after this season. And you know, look, I'm here to tell you that it was not always guaranteed that they would be back for this season. There was really some speculation and there were people in the organization that really did not know whether Jim Crane would retain these two guys for this season. Missing out on the playoffs did not sit well with him. So in terms of that aspect, like, they are very just. I don't even think they're thinking about kind of where they are in the grand scheme of like their organizational life cycle. They really are just thinking about 2026. And I think maybe that is instructive to maybe as we start to speculate where they are in their life cycle, are they staving off just, just an entire kind of. I'm not saying tear it down. This. I don't think Jim Crane, as long as he owns the team, will ever tear this down to the studs. I don't think you will ever see a 2013, 2012 style Astros team again as long as Jim Crane owns the team. But they've got a lot of questions and they've got a lot of consequential decisions to make. You know, I'm Looking at Jeremy Pena, who they were very close to getting a contract extension done with last year before he hired Scott Boris. If he plays well this year and goes into this coming off season, that's the same parallel as to when they traded Kyle Tucker. So is Jeremy Pena on the trade block after this season? If they can't come to an extension agreement with him? Jose Altuve is not getting any younger. He just had the worst statistical season of his of the last 10 years. You know, they've got him under contract for five more years. You know, you start to look at. There's a lot of stuff that's for the future that's very, very up in the air. And I'm not sure that. And I'm. The only reason I can't say or I don't know where they stand is that I'm not sure that the guys in charge now are going to be the ones making those decisions. So they're not really focused on it because they're trying. They know that they've got to get to the playoffs this year and they've got to make a pretty deep run if they want. Want any, you know, hope of negotiating a new contract. So all that to say, like, the Astros are very much just focused on now. They're focused on 2026. They're focused on what can we do to get the 2026 Astros back into the playoffs, back into having a deep run in the playoffs and get them back to where they were and where they've lived, really, for the past eight years.
- [78:55]
Well, I was all ready to dust off my closing question about what would constitute a successful season for the Astros this year, but you probably just addressed it. So make the playoffs, I guess, save people's jobs and answer some of these just overarching questions about the direction of the organization. It sounds like all of that's the to do list for this year.
- [79:16]
Yeah, I mean, that. That's really it. I mean, yes, like, they've got to. They've got to get back to the playoffs. Like, and let's. And again, we're talking about it as if, like, they. Or I guess, like, there's this kind of inference as we're talking that, like, they're just this franchise in decline and it's, like, steadily going downhill. Like, they finished last year with the same record as the Tigers and they lost in a tiebreaker. It's not as if, like, this team's hanging on for dear life and, like, is going to struggle to win 80, 83 games like Jordan Alvarez played 48 games last year. If he plays 58 games, they probably make the playoffs. And then who knows? You go into the playoffs last year with Valdez and Brown atop your rotation, you probably feel pretty good about what you could do. So I think last year was a. It was, it shook a lot of people because it's just stuff they're not accustomed to. They're not accustomed to not being in the playoffs. And, you know, they had a lot of outside influences. You know, the injuries really, really crippled them. There was some, just some other stuff that was happening. But yeah, I think they've got to get back to the playoffs because if they get back to the playoffs, then that starts to answer some questions of, okay, you know, Joe Espada, who I think is a pretty good manager, all things considered, I think is a pretty good tactician, he's a good in game manager like that, answers a lot of questions. Can he guide this team to the playoffs? They have not won a playoff game under Joe Espada. They were swept in the wild card series by the Tigers, and then last year did not make the playoffs. So maybe that could help answer some questions about him. Dana Brown had to rebuild or really restock this pitching staff this off season. If they pitch it as well as they're accustomed to pitching it, then that's a feather in his cap that he was able to go out, make the right moves and, and restock this pitching staff. So it all starts with making the playoffs like that's the baseline expectation here. And if they do that, then it'll allow them a little bit of freedom to start thinking about, you know, maybe in a bigger picture, kind of what's next in the organizational life cycle.
- [81:10]
Yeah, I don't know if it was Espada personally, but I was pretty impressed that they made it as close, close as they did last year because it was just running on fumes and smoke and mirrors there at the end of the season. They were just so shorthanded. But yeah, I guess it is that larger sense of, you know, they had this kind of quasi dynasty and yes, we know about all the baggage associated with it, but there's been so much turnover in terms of the front office and everything that when you cited Zach Cole as kind of a classic Astros player development story, I always wonder, well, is that just institutional memory that. That they just sort of still have that process in place? Because the people who put that process in place, for better in some cases and also for worse, maybe in some, have departed and moved on and, and the Perception is that they're sort of old schoolish or more old school than they were. So I think they're tough for people to pin down just in terms of how they operate at a high level.
- [82:04]
I'm glad you mentioned like the player development. I don't know because I don't know why I didn't mention this earlier. You mentioned like Zach Cole being the classic player development success story. He was a 10th round pick. The other thing that is going to be very seismic for the Astros this season. It is not a stretch to say that this draft, this upcoming draft may be the most important draft at least of the last 10 years of this team. They're going to pick, they're going to pick 17th overall, which is, which is, that's big for them because usually they're picking in the low 20s, even in the 30s because again, they've been so good for so long. But they got a PPI pick from Hunter Brown finishing third and Cy Young voting. So they're gonna. That's the 28th overall pick. So they have the 17th pick, the 28th overall pick. They got a comp pick for Fromer signing with the Tigers off a qualifying offer. So they're gonna have more, a bigger bonus pool than they've probably ever had in the draft. They're gonna pick higher in the draft than they have picked in a very long time. And they have a, a lot of picks early. That's another thing to keep an eye out on because this could be one of the more consequential drafts that this franchise has had since at least 2015 when they selected Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. So just do that again. Just select Bregman and Tucker again and then all the organizational life cycle questions answer themselves. But yes, I'll also keep an eye on that because the other thing that they have struggled to do to maybe sustain this and part of it was they didn't have first and second round picks because of the sign stealing scandal, but they have really not hit on their early big dollar draft picks. Did you know that the Astros have not had a second round pick produced positive major league B wore since Adrian Hauser like they have. They have not done well with their expensive early draft selections. If they can kind of right that ship this with maybe their last two draft classes and what they do in this draft, I think that'll go a long way too in determining kind of where this organization is life cycle wise.
- [84:07]
Well, drafting a Tucker and Bregman equivalent would be a lot cheaper than resigning them this winter would have been. So I assume that Jim Crane would prefer that so we can add that to their goals for success this season. Do well in the draft or don't screw up the draft and we'll be able to assess whether they achieve that in, in, oh, I don't know, five, six years. We'll check back in. All right. Well, thank you so much, Chandler. I think because we went so early, there might be more movement to come in Astro's camp. But we did what we could, knowing what we know now. And of course people can read all of the additional developments at the Athletic and also listen to Chandler talk about him on Crush City territory. Well, I think you, you did your job solid, Pa. Thank you, Chandler.
- [84:55]
Thank you, Ben. Thank you, Mag.
- [84:56]
One preview segment down, 29 to go. We will be back in just a moment with Nick Pocoro to talk about the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- [85:05]
The show is called Effectively Wild.
- [85:09]
It's about baseball and stats. Well, while we were talking to Chandler, the Arizona Diamondbacks made a trade. And doesn't this work out well because we have just the person to take talk to about said trade. It's Nick Poro, Diamondbacks beat writer for the Arizona Republic and AZ Central Sports, who has traded in the birds in the backyard for dogs indoors in this preview segment. So we'll see how that goes.
- [85:58]
Nick Pocoro
Yeah, well, I hope that they, that they pipe down, but I don't, I don't have a lot of faith in that, in that happening.
- [86:05]
Ben Lindbergh
It's okay. We're a dog friendly podcast. Though I do miss the bird. So I guess we can start with the news of the moment. The Diamondbacks traded Blaze Alexander to the Orioles. Whom did they get back and why did they want to do this, as far as you can tell?
- [86:21]
Nick Pocoro
Yeah, I don't have a ton of information yet. We haven't gotten Mike Hazen on the phone to talk about it. But I know the Nolan Aeronauto acquisition made Blaze Alexander a little bit more expendable. I know they'd been looking pretty desperately for bullpen help. Obviously Cade Stroud had some pretty good numbers last year in his first taste at the big league level and his savant page is, you know, pretty impressive.
- [86:49]
Ben Lindbergh
Arizona Red.
- [86:51]
Nick Pocoro
Yeah, a lot of. There you go. A lot of red. It's only 26 and a third innings and you know, a lot of his other track record in the, you know, as a professional was not as impressive. So I, I don't know, I don't know a ton about him but you know, certainly he's Going to fit somewhere in this bullpen that, that, that needs help. You know, I kind of wonder if there's a little bit of a, of a sell high on Bla Alexander. He had a nice couple of months, but has had had some trouble sort of maintaining an approach and being a consistent player for long stretches prior to this. That said, I mean he, he was a big part of, of kind of that, that story of, of the second half for them. You know, they got a lot better defensively, a lot more athletic, and he was kind of in the middle of a lot of things. So an interesting deal. I want to hear more about it from what the, what the club has to say about, about why they, they felt like it was the right, right deal for them.
- [87:44]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, the way the Diamondbacks ended last season I think is a good place to go next because they made a lot of trades, they shipped out a lot of players and then they got better. They came close to being the Tigers of 2025 compared to the Tigers of 2024. That is in that they were sort of sellers and then perhaps came to regret that. I guess that's my question. Not that they could have or should have anticipated that necessarily. They also had a lot of injuries. Kind of a common theme on this episode. But given the way it all worked out, do you think that they had any second thoughts? Not that if they had held on to everyone, everything would have worked out exactly the same way, but it's hard not to look at where they finished in the standings and say, huh, if we had had perhaps held on to some guys, you never know.
- [88:30]
Nick Pocoro
Yeah, I mean, I think it's natural to wonder that. I, I, I think like probably the thing that I keep coming back to is the fact that it was more a Mets collapse than it was a, you know. Yeah, really, really strong second half by the Dimebacks. I mean, they went 29 and 24 after the deadline. Like they were good, but they weren't like the Tigers quite, you know, they weren't quite that good. Yeah, I think they just had to do it, you know, I think the position they were in as far back as they were, as many teams that they had to leapfrog, it just was really unlikely that it would happen. And as it turned out, I guess it, you know, it kind of bared that out right. The end results. But you never know what it would have looked like if they'd have kept Naylor and Merrill, Kelly and Suarez. I do think that they saw it as a chance to add some much needed pitching diamonds depth to their system, which they did. So I, I think that they look a little bit better on paper going into this year as a result.
- [89:28]
Meg Riley
Well, let's see if I can work an awkward transition into a guy who has remained on the team then. One guy they didn't trade at the deadline or this off season was Katel Marte. Eh, does that work? I don't know. I'm curious how close they actually came to moving Marte and what ultimately made them make the decision that they were just going to move on from that as a potential roster construction move.
- [89:55]
Nick Pocoro
I don't think they really came all that close. I don't think that the offers were, were there. I just think wound up, you know, being one of those things where he's just such a good player. They weren't going to take anything less than a, you know, an A plus type of, of trade return. I think they figured that might be out there. Coming off of the, the couple of seasons that he come off of and the fact that his, you know, his contract is going to be hundreds of millions of dollars, you know, at the time was going to be hundreds of millions less than what some of the bigger free agents on the market were expected to get. It. It seemed reasonable to think that, that, you know, now would be a good time to do it. But for whatever reason, I, I don't know exactly what it was, whether it was, you know, concerns about his defense, his age, clubhouse makeup issues or what, you know, those, those offers didn't materialize. You know, it, it did make sense in a sense, you know, just again, like another opportunity to just get younger and, and get more pitching. Like this organization has really struggled to develop arms and if, if this was a way to do it, it, you know, you can kind of see the logic and in it, the dog collar.
- [91:08]
Ben Lindbergh
Jangling I think is actually a nice sort of replacement.
- [91:11]
Nick Pocoro
There's a very intense game of, we call it chomp going on here where they are just going back and forth at each other. It's. Yeah, it's a lot of fun. They're going to start barking pretty soon though.
- [91:24]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, I like, I like what we're hearing so far. You're always going to get some sort of wildlife with a Nick Borroo call or I guess domesticated like life in this case. So maybe we can stick in the infield then and we can talk about the golden oldies who have been imported here or I guess the Diamondbacks hope that they'll be golden. Nolan Arnado, you mentioned, and also the Diamondbacks obliged by acquiring Carl Santana just under the wire so that we could talk about that signing, too. So I guess we'll also want to ask about what all this means for Jordan Lawlor and where and when he fits in, but maybe we can just talk about those two and what the Diamondbacks think they have left in the tank.
- [92:04]
Nick Pocoro
Well, we haven't gotten, you know, official word on Santana yet, so I, I don't have on the record type of remarks of it, of what they're thinking about that. I, I do think that both of those acquisitions seem similar in the sense that they're both above average defenders, and it. I, I think that they are trying to do everything they can to help their pitching staff. They weren't able to, you know, upgrade it significantly, I would say, this offseason. You know, they didn't add a closer. They didn't add, you know, other than Merrill Kelly. You know, they added Michael Siroca, who's fine, but, like, it's not like they made big difference making it additions to their pitching stuff. So I think they're just trying to help those guys out as best they can. And, and if you look at what happened in the second half, part of the reason why they were, you know, playing better baseball was they were just a more fundamentally sound team. They were. They're just playing cleaner baseball. You know, Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are not great defenders and, you know, they wound up like Blaze, played a great third base over the last couple months of the season. You'd think Aaron Otto still can and, you know, we'll see exactly how, how much playing time Santana gets. But, you know, on paper, it seems like he's a better option defensively than anybody else that they have. So I think that's really what it probably came down to with both those guys. And I think they're just going to be banking on, you know, these, these top four guys in this lineup, you know, Carol Perdomo, Catal, Gabby Moreno, can kind of shoulder the load offensively.
- [93:41]
Meg Riley
I would submit that there are few things that are more satisfying for fans than when a guy signs an extension during the off season and then immediately turns in his best season as a pro. Best season as a pro sort of undersells the kind of year that Perdomo had. So talk to us about what changed for him, what sort of keyed this big step forward, and I'll ask you a question that I asked Chandler as it pertains to Jeremy Pena. How permanent does this shift feel to you?
- [94:12]
Nick Pocoro
That's a Hard one. The, the last part especially because it just felt so unlike anything we'd seen from him before. I do think that the floor is really high with him. You know, obviously a solid defender and a guy that just is one of the best in baseball at pitch recognition, zone awareness. Just working tough at bats over and over and over. Just never seems to give in a bat away. So I mean you like those things things as far as the floor, I, I don't know. He, he got a lot stronger, that's for sure. He seemed to figure out how to drive balls to the pole side better even, even right handed which, you know, we just hadn't seen him hit balls with authority from that side of the plate very much. I feel like he's kind of the classic like guy who, who knows how to hit, knows how to put the bat on the ball, made a few adjustments and you know, power came late. Right. That's kind of the, the cliche of, of what you'd say with him. I guess. I, I think it's probably repeatable. I mean I don't know if he's going to get to 20 homers and 100 RBIs again, but I, I think something in, in that neighborhood of, of you know, 50, 60 extra base hits and is still pretty young. I mean that was his age 25 season. You know, there's a lot to like.
- [95:26]
Ben Lindbergh
So with Pero ensconced at short for the foreseeable future, where will Jordan Lawler end up? It's just follow the bouncing baseball player because he's just all over the place. He's playing some second, he was playing some third, he was in the doctor playing some center field over this off season. Right. So where, where will he end up? Or is the plan for him not to pick a lane but just to bounce around?
- [95:51]
Nick Pocoro
I wonder if the plan for him has changed yet again. After the Aeronauto deal, it sounded like they were moving forward thinking that that Blaze would be, you know, kind of the backup on the infield positions. Lawlor would be an option there but, but also was going to get a lot of reps in the outfield. I don't know how much that's going to change now. I mean they think that Lawler can play a good outfield. They think he can. He's athletic enough and will be just fine out there, but I don't know. They also have Ryan Walt Schmidt who I expect them to give an opportunity, opportunity to this spring. So I don't, I don't know. I don't have a great answer for you. I will say I thought that something clicked for him those last few weeks of the season. I feel like he just suddenly got comfortable. It is September, and you're never really supposed to read too much into September results, but like, just the quality of the at bats and the fact that he was, you know, really hitting balls hard and pulling them with some authority, you know, maybe hopeful that that upside that, that people have been talking about, you know, might. Might actually come out here in the future.
- [96:55]
Meg Riley
He's finally graduated from prospect status, which is really all that I care.
- [96:59]
Nick Pocoro
Same here.
- [97:00]
Meg Riley
Yeah, I don't have to list him on the D max list anymore. This time last year when we were talking to you about Corbin Carroll, a lot of attention was paid to sort of the. The dramatic splits that he had had. The, the swoon in the first half, the rebound in the second. And last year was. Was like pretty steady Eddie. You know, he was a great player. He was good at the plate. He didn't have the protracted sort of downswing. So what do you attribute that to with Carroll and sort of, you know, you've mentioned that he's meant to help shoulder the offensive load. Do you think that he's in a spot where he's sort of equal to that challenge? I suppose, yeah.
- [97:36]
Nick Pocoro
I mean, I think his swing was in a better place. You know, remember, he came into 2024 having made some adjustments that kind of backfired on him. You know, I know he went to driveline after last year and just seemed really happy with. With where he was from a swing perspective from the first day of spring training on and just. Just delivered. You know, I haven't had a chance to catch up with him yet. I mean, we haven't, you know, spring hasn't started yet. But I'm curious what he's. What he's taking aim at this year. I'm guessing it's the fact that he hit.259 and that he'd like to be something closer to a 3, 300 hitter. I mean, this is a kid that. That wants to win the mvp. You know, that's the kind of. The kind of mentality he has. And, yeah, I mean, I. I feel like he's. He has the ability to totally shoulder the bulk of the. The heavy lifting for the offense, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up stealing more bases. You know, a lot of that last year was where he was hitting in the lineup and just how good Cattel was hitting right behind him. You know, I, I, I think if he finds himself, you know, in the position to steal more, I'm, I, I'm, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up back at 50 steals again this year.
- [98:40]
Ben Lindbergh
You made a reference to Gabby Moreno shouldering a heavier load. I'm sure he'd like to, I'm sure the Diamondbacks would like him to. I had to rank the top 10 catchers going into this year recently for MLP Network, and so I had Moreno quite high. And that was partly because if you just look on a rate basis, just among all players with 500 plus plate appearances as a catcher over the past two seasons, the only catcher who has a higher WAR poor per 600 plate appearances over that span is Cal Rally. Which sounds really good for Moreno, except that I guess he barely had 600 plate appearances in those seasons. Cause he just kind of is stuck in this rut where he's getting hurt and, and plays half a season. So yeah, if you just kind of double his wars, then it looks really good. But he would have to actually stay healthy all season for that to happen. So I guess it's a bunch of different injuries, so it isn't exactly one thing. Right. So is that the reason for optimism or what is the level of optimism?
- [99:42]
Nick Pocoro
Yeah, you're right. I mean, what was it in, in 23? I think it was a shoulder. He, he missed time in the middle of the season. In 24, he like pulled a quad or something running down to first base in Cleveland. And then last year it was like a broken bone in his hand. It's weird. I mean, it's, it's not one specific thing and it's some sort of fluky stuff, I guess. He went into last spring talking about how important it was for him to stay healthy and how he had learned what he needed to do to take care of his body. And, you know, I mean, I guess to his credit, like, that was a, it was like a wild pitch when he was behind the plate. Right. That kicked up and hit his, hit his throwing hand, I think.
- [100:25]
Meg Riley
Wasn't that after the long race delay in Sincere somewhere?
- [100:29]
Nick Pocoro
Might have been. That sounds right. Yeah, I, I remember it happened and I wasn't there for it, but I, I think it was that, that road trip.
- [100:38]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
- [100:39]
Nick Pocoro
I don't know. It's also weird. Every time he comes back, it seems like he just catches fire in the second half and, and just, you know, makes you wonder what could have been with his season. I don't know. I mean, I know, I know he takes it seriously. I know the club takes it seriously. Maybe they're taking just, they just have to cross their fingers and hope for a little better luck.
- [100:57]
Meg Riley
I'm curious, you know, you already mentioned Walt Schmidt. This is a team that has a very deep farm system on the position player side. Are there guys in the high Miners who you anticipate might be sort of first called up in the event of injury?
- [101:11]
Nick Pocoro
I think Tommy Troy and Ryan. Walt Schmidt, assuming Lawler is going to be on the team, you know, those are probably the guys that would that stand out to me. Trying to think who else I would be omitting there like croissantes. I guess I wouldn't be surprised if croissantes just mashed and was an option later in the year, you know, but Walt Schmidt and, and Troy are probably the two that, that make the most sense. Gino Groover, I, I suppose is, is another option. I'm curious to see, you know, how they, how aggressive they are with Walt Schmidt. You know, he had a tiny chase raid, a lot of contact, you know, just does, does a lot of the things that they want to see out of their hitters. Just a more advanced approach than you would expect for a guy in his first full pro season. Even, even a college guy. It was just, he was just really, you know, everything was really on point. And with Guriel likely to miss the first couple months at least as he's recovering from his knee surgery, that's an opportunity right there in left field. I'm not sure how much they would factor in the, what's it called, PPE at Waltz Me does a top 100 guy. It'll be interesting to see just how, how much of an opportunity he gets when camp starts.
- [102:27]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, PPE is I guess, a remnant of the COVID era. That's like the personal, personal protective equipment. That's the one. Both are important in their own way. Yeah, the, the outfield we talked about Corbin Carroll and, and that's solid, but the rest of the outfield is a little bit of mystery. Right. A little bit of a black box probably.
- [102:51]
Nick Pocoro
I mean, Alec Thomas is, is probably entrenched there in center field. Although I, I, I wouldn't be surprised if, if he finds himself in a, a platoon with someone. I, I thought, you know, that there was more of a chance that it was going to be with Lawler, you know, before that trade of Blaze. Maybe it still is. Tim Tawa is another guy that could find himself in the middle of all this stuff. You know, he's a really Versatile player who hit pretty well in Reno a couple years ago and had some stretches of success in the big leagues, especially early last season. And who am I forgetting? Well, Jorge Barrosa is, is another guy that adds some, you know, defense and speed. Paven Smith days in the outfield are probably over. I think that's, that's probably the, that's probably most of the names that you're looking at. At least guys that are, that are on the 40.
- [103:46]
Ben Lindbergh
We can talk a little bit of pitching here. The Diamondbacks bullpen not so hot Last year was 28th by fan graphs, War 29th by wind probability added. What have they done to rebuild that bullpen?
- [104:01]
Nick Pocoro
Not an awful lot. Today they got Cade Stroud as, as we talked about. Yeah, they signed Taylor Clark to a modest one year contract and I think they're, they're really just going to be hoping for bounce backs from a lot of guys and good health from others. They need to get AJ Puck and Justin Martinez back and healthy and, and are hoping that that happens, you know, as the year goes on. Puck will be back first and both are coming back from, you know, the repeated elbow surgeries or multiple elbow surgeries for each of them, you know, maybe makes it a little bit scarier, but you know, they're hoping, you know, Kevin Ginkle is healthy and better and that Ryan Thompson is more consistent and you know, guys like Dre Jameson can, can stay healthy and contribute and that Juan Mario who emerged last year throwing 100 for them and, and had some moments can, can be a little bit more consistent. And there's others as well. But yeah, I mean it's a, it's an area I think all of us were expecting them to address in a more significant manner this offseason. They were linked to a handful of, of free agent relievers but, but didn't get a deal done. Done with, with anyone. I think there's just going to be a lot of attention on the bullpen certainly early in the season as a result. I think there's going to be a lot of pressure on Tory Lavello as well. You know, there were questions as to whether he was going to be coming back at the end of last season and it feels like a tough spot for him to be in. Just, you know, obviously a manager is, is evaluated by most, you know, most fans as how he, you know, based on how well they handled the pitching staff and he's going to be bringing back a bullpen that's filled a lot, filled with a lot of the same guys that you know, struggled last year, so it's a interesting spot for him to be in, especially early on when they have a tough schedule.
- [105:58]
Meg Riley
Yeah, I wanted to ask about that because they made a bunch of changes to that staff beyond, you know, just moving on from Strom. So obviously the results weren't particularly sterling largely because of injury. But, you know, a year into a new sort of organizational approach to pitching, did they see that as having borne any fruit or do you imagine that some of those guys might be sort of on the hot seat too?
- [106:24]
Nick Pocoro
I mean, it's a. It's an area of focus in the organization. They. They just added Jeremy Bleich to their front office to kind of help overhaul the. Their whole kind of pitching development infrastructure at. I wrote a story early in the off season about how they were thinking about making changes to their kind of the way that they. They push their young pitchers in like strength and conditioning. You know, they're. They're usually near the bottom of the league in velocity and stuff plus and all that. And I mean they just. They just don't usually. They just had a really hard time developing the sort of, you know, impact bullpen arms that a lot of organizations. Organizations seem to almost like stumble upon these days. The dymex just don't. Just haven't done it very well. Yeah, I mean, I'm really curious to see what kind of changes they're able to implement. You know, whether any guys internally can take, you know, just steps forward, gain velocity or, or get a little nastier. It's just. It's been amazing to be honest. Like looking back at the history of the franchise. Like bullpen development has always been a problem. They've always had to go externally, almost always had to go externally to. To solve their issues there. And it's kind of amazing in a sense that they've been as competitive and relatively successful of an. As an. Of an organization as they have been despite having this glaring weakness for pretty much the history of the franchise.
- [107:56]
Ben Lindbergh
One other fellow returning from an elbow surgery we should probably touch on or Diamondbacks hope he'll be returning from an elbow surgery. Corbin Burns. What's his time frame like?
- [108:07]
Nick Pocoro
He is expected back sometime around the All Star break or that's when he was has been talking about. You know, I would think if it's a little more conservative it would be closer to August than. Than the beginning of July. That's another one that that's going to be a big lift. It's just is not. Things have not worked out from a pitching Perspective. I don't know how many times I can say that. But you know, looking at it a couple of years ago, they, they knew that Gallon and Kelly were, you know, that their, their time was, was, was running out and they went and signed Eduardo Rodriguez and then a year later they signed Corbin Burns and in hopes of kind of you know, shielding themselves a little bit from those departures and it just has not worked out. Eduardo had a little better second half in his last, I don't know, six weeks or so were pretty solid. But otherwise his, it just has not gone well for him here. And Corbin Burns through great, of course before going down. But yeah, I mean that's, that's not, that's not what they had in mind when they signed him.
- [109:11]
Ben Lindbergh
You just mentioned Gallen. He is still out there. He is probably the top ranked free agent who is still on the market. Is there any prospect of or need for a reunion?
- [109:24]
Nick Pocoro
I mean, I'm sure they could use him. I, I don't get the sense that it's extremely likely, but those things can change quickly and you know, just as quickly as, as Ken Kendrick, Patrick can change his mind and decide he wants to spend a little bit more money. That said, I mean, they spent a couple hundred million last year more than anyone expected and, and they lost apparently a lot of money last year when, when things didn't go well. I, I don't know. I mean, the longer that Gallon is out there, the, the more you wonder if he is going to come back. It wouldn't, I mean, I guess it would kind of cost them a draft pick, but you know, not in the same, same way. So there is a little, it is a little bit easier to envision them bringing him back. And obviously Gallen has made no secret he loves it here. He just got married to someone who is from here. You know, they, they live out here full time now. You know, he, he wants to stay. He's always wanted to stay in Arizona. Whether they're going to stretch their, their payroll that much more remains to be seen. I guess I, I just kind of, I just kind of doubt it.
- [110:31]
Meg Riley
Their rotation as it stands now is Kelly back. At least you got this. The steady Eddie of Merrill. Kelly, you have Eduardo Rodriguez, as you mentioned. What are they expecting out of Brandon fought this year?
- [110:42]
Nick Pocoro
Yeah, that's an interesting one. I have him on, you know, targeted as a guy I really want to talk to you and kind of dig in on once camp begins. Certainly they think he's going to bounce back. I don't know. What, what, what direction they're gonna go with him. I mean, he's, he's tinkered pretty dramatically over at times, over the years with his, with his repertoire. He's, you know, added a sinker, started throwing a cutter, backed away from his, his slider or sweeper, as it's categorized as at times versus certain handed batters. I'm curious to see what. You know, again, it's one of those things that I wonder if, if Jerry, Jeremy Blyche's impact will, will maybe be be seen or felt there as it pertains to fought. But you mentioned a guy that in Perdomo that they extended and then immediately had it go great. It kind of went the opposite when they signed it. Signed, fought. You know, I think they gave him that deal expecting a breakout and it kind of went the other direction.
- [111:41]
Ben Lindbergh
I think we asked you on last year's preview about the ballpark situation and there had been noises about maybe moving the team at one point and there were some needed renovations and there was some resolution last year when a big billion plus $30 year funding plan was signed. And I wonder whether that is already manifesting itself, whether fans will start to see that, what sort of economic impact that will have.
- [112:10]
Nick Pocoro
I think there's, there's still a little ways to go for, for all of that stuff to kick in. I know they've had some meetings and trying to figure out exactly what they're, what things they're going to renovate. There's just a lot of layers that, those sorts of, you know, boards that they have to go through with all that stuff. And I think they still need a lease. They need to sign a new lease for the ballpark as well. They talked about a lot of the, the things that are going to happen first might be things that fans aren't going to really see. You know, maybe that's like, you know, kind of some of the infrastructure type of stuff and it could be some of the, you know, like clubhouse level things to, to make things a little bit better for both the home and, and the visiting side. So it doesn't sound like they've made an awful lot of progress yet on, on Chase Field.
- [112:59]
Ben Lindbergh
All right, tell us what would constitute success for the Diamondbacks in 2026?
- [113:05]
Nick Pocoro
That's a, that's a hard one for me because of all of the, all of the injuries, namely Burns and, and Puck and Martinez. If, if those three guys were, were healthy to start the year, I think you would absolutely say that getting to the playoffs would, would you know, be expected. I guess I would say playing well enough to where you're adding at the deadline and then adding those guys guys back in, in the second half, that would probably be good but it's just, it's a little tough to look at the, at the pitching staff as, as currently constructed and expect, I mean, and then you add in the Guriel injury on top of that and, and expect them to be being a no doubt playoff team. So I mean I, I think hanging in there and just buying at the deadline would, would probably, would probably check that box for me. I don't know if that's the case for the organization and, and for ownership. You know, this was a team that was in the World Series a couple years ago and they've, you know, missed the playoffs back to back years, had a pretty good team in 2024 and just, and couldn't make it happen last year. Dealt with a lot of injuries and you know, you can excuse it a little bit more. And then obviously, you know, had had to sell at the deadline or felt they had to but you know, you start missing the playoffs again, you kind of wonder, you know, how long ownership is going to remain patient there. So there's a lot to watch this.
- [114:33]
Ben Lindbergh
Year and you hope you don't just get a reverse of last season where they buy at the deadline and then play worse down the stretch. That could always happen because it's baseball. Anyway, thank you as always, Nick. It's a pleasure having you on and thank you to your dogs for not chomping too loudly.
- [114:51]
Nick Pocoro
Yeah, shocker, right? Yeah, thanks for having me, guys.
- [114:53]
Ben Lindbergh
All right. I led the last episode by talking about MLB owners. Somewhat surprising absence from the Epstein files. Did get an email after the episode from Patreon supporter Vicky who said just an FYI in regard to baseball owners and Epstein brings me no pleasure to say this as a Dodgers fan, but one of our owners is implicated. Vicki's referring to Todd Boley who was mentioned in a couple of Epstein emails. Epstein was trying to arrange meetings with him. I think they had a couple business meetings. As I said to Vicky, by the standards of rich guys embroiled in the Epstein emails, these details don't seem too damning. Not great to have any association with the guy at that stage obviously, but look at what we're comparing him to. Also, he's not a well known figure in baseball. He is a minority owner of the Dodgers and the Lakers. He is better known as the co controlling owner and chairman of Chelsea in the Premier League. He's a co owner of multiple soccer clubs. So he's more associated with soccer than with baseball and it could have been way worse. So as Vicky responded, yes, he was just immoral rich guy more than creepy predator rich guy. After we recorded ESPN reported on a court filing pertaining to the Emanuel Class A pitch fixing case, Luis Ortiz's attorney requested that his client's case be severed from Class A's because the two pitchers markedly different levels of culpability would make it difficult for Ortiz to receive a fair trial. And this was the juicy part. The attorney alluded to government allegations against Class A of and I quote suspect pitches during 48 games, which is many more than the government detailed in its initial indictment and would be more than a quarter of games Class A appeared in during his, quote, 26 months of alleged criminal conduct from May 2023 through July 2025. So you know that's not good. We don't yet have additional detail on those 48 pitches. This reminds me though, I neglected to mention that the piece I wrote about the pitch fixing scandal and discussed on the podcast was nominated for a Sabre Analytics Conference Research Award in the Contemporary Commentary category. And if you're listening to this before the end of the day on Friday, February 6, you can still vote for that if you'd care to. Or vote for any of the other excellent nominees if you feel like throwing a vote my way, I would not complain, so I will include that link on the show page. Also, since we started this episode by talking about a couple of left handed Detroit Tigers aces, I'll end with a quick, quick salute to one we just lost. Mickey Lolich, Tigers legend, died at 85 this week. Most famous for his heroic performances MVP performance in the 1968 World Series, the last World Series before the divisional era when extra rounds were added. But he was also an excellent pitcher, very much in the vein of Wilbur Wood, whom we talked about recently when we lost him. So losing legends of the 70s and 60s and I read Lolich's name when we talked about Wood because when I sorted the innings pitched leaderboard 1971-75, Wilbur Wood was on top. Gaylord Perry was second. But then Lolich was third with 15, 60 1/3 innings pitched over those five seasons. So a knuckleballer, a spitballer, and Mickey Lolich. And he wasn't just an innings eater during that span. He had a second place and third place Cy Young finish. He got MVP votes in 71. Lolich actually led the majors with with 376 innings pitched and 45 games started and 29 complete games. We will not see their like again barring big time rules changes. So couple of incredibly durable lefties. I referred to Energizer Framber before. Forget Energizer, Fromber, Energizer, Wilbur and Mickey. Except that no one can keep going forever. They were going and going and now they're gone. But not forgotten. If all goes according to plan, we will have Giants and Royals previews for you next time. For now, you can support the podcast on Patreon by going to patreon.com effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks as have the following five listeners MP Robbie Simpson, Robbie Senser, Hokius or Hokius and Austin Hall. Thanks to all of you, Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, prioritized email answers, shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, personalized messages, discounts on merch and ad free fan graphs, memberships, and so much more. Check out all the offerings@patreon.com effectivelywild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangrafts.com youm can make me review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Music, and other podcast platforms. That's another way you can help us without spending a dime. You can join our Facebook group@facebook.com group effectivelywild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at R Effectivelywild and you can check the show notes in the podcast, posted fan graphs, or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats recited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production systems. We'll be back with one more episode before the end of the week, which means we will talk to you soon.
- [119:57]
Nick Pocoro
Does baseball look the same to you.
- [120:00]
Ben Lindbergh
As it does to me? When we look at baseball, how much do we see?
- [120:09]
Nick Pocoro
Well, the curveballs bend and the home.
- [120:11]
Ben Lindbergh
Runs fly the more to the game than meets the eye to get the stats compiled and the story filed. Fans on the Internet might get riled.
- [120:21]
But we can break it down on Effectively Wild.