Effectively Wild Episode 2436: Season Preview Series – Astros and Diamondbacks

Date: February 6, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)
Guests: Chandler Rome (The Athletic), Nick Pecoro (Arizona Republic)

Overview

This episode kicks off Effectively Wild’s 14th annual Season Preview Series, beginning with the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks. Ben and Meg are joined by Chandler Rome and Nick Pecoro, respectively, to delve into offseason moves, organizational outlooks, and detailed team breakdowns. The show also covers recent MLB news around player contracts, AI technology's increasing role with MLBPA, and media industry challenges.

I. Headlines & Opening Banter

Pandora’s Box Opens: MLB Players Become AI Chatbots

• MLBPA’s Genies Agreement: MLB players will have AI avatars capable of interacting with fans, per a deal with Genies and MLB Players, Inc. The avatars will reflect the players’ voices and interests, and fans can be charged for chats, in-app experiences, and digital goods. The company hasn’t announced which players will be available.
  • Meg’s Reaction: Deep skepticism, noting AI “can't have a conversation with you. It's not a person. It's a chatbot” [02:03].
  • Worries about Potential Misuse: Both hosts joke about weird and inappropriate user behavior and the potential for MLB AI avatars to be misused (e.g., “OnlyFans territory”) [03:09-05:30].
  • Ben: “There would have to be just an enormous payout to even make me consider selling my soul to do this. ...Check back in three months and I'll have developed an unhealthy attachment to AI John Brebia.” [04:23]

Odd Promotions, Media Layoffs, & T-Shirts

• Marketing Quirk: Blue Jays promote the “Addison Barger Couch T-Shirt,” causing Meg to question the wisdom and taste of such promotions [06:30-08:17].
• State of the Media: Discussion on recent media layoffs, notably the Washington Post's elimination of its sports desk, effects on independent journalism, and job insecurity in the industry. Both reflect somberly on the “devastating consequences” for sports fans and citizens alike.
  • Memorable Quote (Meg): "I think every day we are less and less well informed by design. …That really sucks." [30:18-32:48]

II. Major MLB News & Arbitration Developments

Tarek Skubal’s Historic Arbitration Win (DET)

• Resolution: Skubal awarded $32 million for 2026 after arbitration—an all-time high for an arb-eligible player.
  • Details: Skubal utilized a rarely-invoked provision for players with 5+ years’ service and “special accomplishment” (back-to-back Cy Youngs) [13:21-14:25].
  • Meg’s Take: Applauds Skubal for moving the needle for labor, noting the benefit for future stars like Paul Skenes [14:25-17:59].
  • Discussion: Ponders why the Tigers didn’t flex more in negotiations and the process’s wider implications for player compensation and labor relations.

Framber Valdez Signs with Tigers

• Context: Tigers land Valdez (3 yrs/$115M, opt-out after 2027) to pair with Skubal and solidify rotation [18:33-24:44].
  • Ben: “That rotation now projects to be the second best in baseball right after the Red Sox… ahead of the Dodgers.” [18:33]
  • Meg’s Analysis: Praises fit between Valdez and manager Hinch, calls it “a really nice fit” for both sides.

Pirates Rumors (Missed Out on Valdez)

• Ben: “Pirates emerge as aggressive suitor—but of course, Pirates fans didn't get their hopes up… if they did, they were very quickly dashed.” [25:45]

III. Season Preview: Houston Astros

Guest: Chandler Rome, The Athletic [36:38-84:54]

Framber Valdez Departure: No Chance of Return

• Chandler: “I don't think there was ever a realistic chance Framber was going to come back to Houston… It was time for a fresh start.” [37:00]
• Addressing Character Concerns: While issues existed (reference to “cross-up” incident and complaints about coaching), teammates and coaches still respected Valdez’s work ethic and commitment [37:21-40:28].

Offseason International Move: Tatsuya Imai

• Club's Strategy: Astros sought to bolster pitching depth and expand into the Asia-Pacific market, signing Imai to a short-term high AAV deal [40:53-44:25].
• Owner’s Influence: Jim Crane prioritized a Japanese partnership and presence.

Injury Plague Fallout

• Trainer Dismissal: Team fired longtime trainer after embarrassing injury miscommunications and poor public relations [45:08].
• Changed Protocols: Unspecified updates to “return to play,” resistance to WBC participation for Altuve & Correa after last year’s injury-ridden campaign [45:08-48:46].

Rotation Deep Dive

• Top Four Starters: Hunter Brown (emerged as clear ace), Imai, Mike Burrows, Christian Javier [53:37].
• Hunter Brown’s Development: Big velocity spike, strategic pitch mix changes; “unquestioned number one starter” [49:26].
  • Chandler: “Since he added that sinker… he’s like the third or fourth best pitcher in baseball.” [51:13]
• Christian Javier: Pivotal “key to their entire season”—returns from injury, club hopes for 2022-level performance [53:37].
• Other Options: McCullers’ uncertain future; Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson among others to fight for sixth slot.

Infield/Lineup Logjam

• Paredes, Walker, Correa, Peña, Alvarez, Altuve: Multiple players for limited positions causing daily lineup headaches [62:03-67:37].
  • Only Altuve (2B), Alvarez (DH), and Peña (SS) guaranteed spots.
  • Likely trade between Isak Paredes and Christian Walker to resolve logjam.
  • Chandler: “It's a mess… I would be surprised if the Astros break camp with both Isak Paredes and Christian Walker on the roster.” [66:04]
• Jeremy Peña’s Breakout: Permanent changes—efficient swing, optimal contact decisions, and big step forward [59:46-61:50].
  • Chandler: “All of the underlying stuff kept getting better...it just maybe wasn't translating into the counting stats… it feels lasting to me.” [59:46]

Outfield Depth

• Cam Smith: Defensive asset, but question marks on the bat after full-season struggles; other options include Jesus Sanchez, Zach Cole, Jake Myers [67:37-70:39].

Bullpen & Prospects

• Josh Hader: Healthy but likely reduced to classic closer role post-shoulder sprain [70:57].
• Prospects to Watch: Zach Cole (OF), AJ Bluabaugh (SP/RP), Joseph Sullivan, Lucas Spence [72:22].

Organizational Direction & Stakes

• Chandler: “They are all in for 2026 because the brain trust… that’s all they can look at. Neither of them [GM, manger] has guarantees beyond this season.” [75:53]
• Club focused on immediate playoff return after 2025 playoff miss. Future core and life-cycle uncertain; draft especially important (highest picks, largest pool in years) [82:04].
• Success Means: Making playoffs, saving jobs, resolving “existential” questions about organizational trajectory [78:55-81:10].

IV. Season Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Guest: Nick Pecoro, Arizona Republic [85:58-114:53]

Recent Trade: Blaze Alexander for Cade Stroud

• Move Details: Blaze Alexander (IF) shipped to Orioles for Cade Stroud (RHP). Club seeking bullpen depth, consider it potentially a “sell high” on Alexander [86:21].

2025 Post-Deadline Surge: Seller’s Regret?

• Nick: “It was more a Mets collapse than… a really strong second half by the D-backs.” [88:29]
• Believes selling was logical, but it’s “natural to wonder” what if. Moves added much-needed pitching depth.

Katel Marte Trade Rumors (That Weren’t)

• Staying Put: Offers never approached “A+ level” needed to move him, so Marte remains for 2026 [89:54].

Veteran Arrivals: Nolan Arenado, Carlos Santana

• Defense Over Bat: Upgrades focus on above-average defense to support the pitching staff—particularly in absence of major pitching acquisitions [92:03].
• Lineup Carrying Load: Core of Carroll, Perdomo, Marte, and Moreno expected to do the offensive heavy lifting.

Geraldo Perdomo’s Breakout

• Nick: “Floor is really high… knows how to put the bat on the ball, made a few adjustments and, you know, power came late.” [94:12]
• Thinks the improvement is “probably repeatable,” even if not at 2025’s heights.

Jordan Lawlar’s Role

• Versatile Path: Lawlar gets reps across infield and outfield, role “may have changed again” after Arenado acquisition. [95:51]
• Recent uptick in performance gives hope for realization of top prospect upside.

Corbin Carroll’s Consistency

• 2025 Stabilized: Steady offensive contributor, bounceback from prior year’s splits. May steal more bases depending on lineup configuration [96:59-98:39].

Gabby Moreno’s Durability

• Elite On-Rate Performance: Could be one of MLB’s best catchers—if health holds [98:39].
• Injuries mostly fluke, not chronic; hope is for better luck and maybe a full season.

Depth & Prospects

• Next Ups: Tommy Troy, Ryan Wohl Schmidt (OF), Gino Groover; Walt Schmidt especially likely to get a shot in left with Gurriel Jr. out a couple months [101:11-102:26].

Outfield Construction

• Beyond Carroll: Alec Thomas likely entrenched in center, but may platoon. Tim Tawa and Jorge Barrosa noted as options [102:50].

Bullpen Status: Minimal Overhaul

• Low Activity: Acquired Cade Stroud, signed Taylor Clarke, but mostly banking on bounce-backs (e.g., Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, AJ Puk, Justin Martinez) [104:00-105:57].
• Development Needs: Franchise still searching for homegrown late-inning arms; new hire Jeremy Bleich brought in to reshape pitching development [106:23].

Starting Rotation & Pitching

• Injuries Loom Large: Corbin Burns (midyear return), Eduardo Rodriguez underwhelmed, rotation anchored by Merrill Kelly.
• Discussion of whether Zack Gallen could return as a free agent; deal unlikely but possible depending on market [107:56-110:31].
• Brandon Pfaadt: Key to depth; team hopeful for a bounceback and benefit from new player development philosophy [110:42].

Ballpark Renovations

• Chase Field renovations on horizon, but tangible fan experience changes still “a little ways to go.” [112:10]

Expectations for 2026

• Nick: Injuries to key arms dampen hopes for a “no doubt” playoff season. Success would be “playing well enough to buy at the deadline… then adding those guys back in” midseason [113:04].
• A playoff miss might imperil manager Torey Lovullo’s job given mounting impatience after two playoff-free years [114:33].

V. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Ben (on Tigers’ rotation): "That rotation now projects to be the second best in baseball right after the Red Sox… ahead of the Dodgers." [18:33]
• Meg: “We are, I think, every day less and less well informed by design.” [30:18]
• Chandler (Astros): “They are very much just focused on now… all in for 2026 because the brain trust… that’s all they can look at.” [75:53]
• Nick (D-backs): “I think they're just going to be banking on… these top four guys in this lineup… can kind of shoulder the load offensively.” [92:03]

VI. Timestamps for Major Segments (approximate)

• MLB AI Chatbot Discussion: [00:43–05:55]
• Tigers’ Skubal/Valdez Moves: [08:33–25:42]
• Media Layoffs: [27:55–35:32]
• Astros Preview (Chandler Rome): [36:38–84:54]
  • Framber Departure: [37:00–40:28]
  • Imai Signing/Int’l Play: [40:53–44:25]
  • Injury Fallout: [45:08–48:46]
  • Rotation/Lineup Depth: [49:26–67:37]
  • Prospects: [72:22–75:17]
  • Organizational Focus: [75:17–84:54]
• Diamondbacks Preview (Nick Pecoro): [85:58–114:53]
  • Blaze Alexander Trade: [86:21–86:50]
  • Marte, Arenado/Santana Moves: [89:54–94:12]
  • Perdomo, Lawlar, Carroll: [94:12–98:39]
  • Bullpen/Roster Construction: [104:00–106:23]
  • Pitching/Rotation: [107:56–110:42]
  • Ballpark Renovation: [112:10]
  • 2026 Success Metrics: [113:04]
• Closing Notes & Tributes: [114:53–end]

VII. Tone & Takeaways

The conversations maintain the show’s signature blend of wit, statistical curiosity, and granular baseball analysis. Guests and hosts alike tackle complex roster puzzles, offer candid assessments of club strategies, and address broader issues affecting the game and industry. The episode delivers in-depth, context-rich previews that equip listeners for the coming season.

End of Summary