Effectively Wild Episode 2437: Season Preview Series – Giants and Royals

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley
Guests: Grant Brisby (The Athletic), Annie Rogers (MLB.com)
Date: February 7, 2026

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode continues Effectively Wild’s annual season preview series, focusing on the 2026 San Francisco Giants (with Grant Brisby) and Kansas City Royals (with Annie Rogers). Along the way, the hosts discuss recent changes to MLB.TV/ESPN streaming, the remarkable 2026 Team USA WBC roster, and dig into team-specific issues like the Giants’ persistent mediocrity and Royals’ incremental progress. The episode balances in-depth statistical analysis with the podcast’s signature banter and digressions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. MLB.TV/ESPN Streaming Changes

[01:58–07:16]

• MLB.TV is now bundled with ESPN Unlimited:
  • You can’t simply buy MLB.TV independently—must at least start a trial of ESPN Unlimited to get access.
  • ESPN Unlimited is free for the first month, but auto-renews at $30/month if not canceled. If you only want MLB.TV, you must remember to cancel ESPN Unlimited after signing up.
• Price stays the same for 2026:
  • "The price will be the same, so that's a relief. A stay of price increase, at least for this year." — Meg Rowley [02:58]
• The hosts lampoon the complexity and consumer-unfriendliness:
  • Ben Lindbergh quips that the decision-makers should personally handle calls from confused customers, highlighting the disconnect between executives and users.
  • “This is a smaller version of the billionaire problem where… they never have to interact with a human person.” — Ben Lindbergh [07:16]
• Overall, no permanent extra fee for now if you’re vigilant—but it's needlessly convoluted.

2. The 2026 Team USA WBC Stat Blast

[12:28–33:45]

• Team USA will field its strongest WBC roster ever—especially on the mound:
  • Huge leap forward in pitching: T. Skubal, P. Skenes, L. Webb, J. Ryan—all top-tier arms.
  • "In each starting slot... this year's guy is the best guy down to Joe Ryan and beyond." — Meg Rowley [20:52]
  • Depth: 5th/6th starters (Wacha, Boyd) are better than past #3s/#4s.
• Quantified Dominance:
  • "This year, it's 45.9 cumulative WAR produced last season by the guys who were on this roster, the pitchers alone." — Meg Rowley [20:52]
  • Offense is still elite: Hitters produced 73.3 WAR last year—the most ever for Team USA.
  • Projected WAR blends are all Team USA/WBC records.
• Why now?
  • Shift in player attitudes & peer influence, watching emotionally charged 2023 WBC moments.
  • "My pitch has been completely different this time. It's like you're going to miss out on three weeks of the greatest time of your life..." — Mark DeRosa (quoted by Meg) [28:27]
• Hosts' take:
  • Overwhelming favorites, but Meg hopes for upsets to keep things competitive.
  • BEN: "You could comp this to the Dream Team, the NBA Dream Team, more realistically than you could [in the past]." [27:15]
  • Past superstars like Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, etc., never pitched in the WBC.
• Conclusion:
  • “I do think if you want a truly world class event, it helps to have more of the great players treat it as one. Just excited for the WBC in general.” — Meg Rowley [31:12]

Team Preview #1: San Francisco Giants (with Grant Brisby)

[34:31–79:44]

1. Managerial Change: Tony Vitello Era Begins

[36:10–38:35]

• Hire of Tony Vitello (from college ranks) is seen as bold and "vibes-focused":
  • Grant struggles with how much managers really matter in 2026, but concludes, "It's just vibes curator. Is that too good?" [37:42]
  • Emphasis is now less on tactics/bunting and more on 'setting the tone' in the clubhouse; Vitello is universally described as a solid, people-oriented guy.

2. Offseason Review: Maintenance Mood

[39:08–40:48]

• Major signings included:
  • Rafael Devers (previously), Harrison Bader, Luis Arraez.
  • "This is the first offseason…where the Giants didn't feel like they needed to get a star." — Grant [39:08]
  • Offseason “was a maintenance offseason after offseasons of big swings and misses. They got Devers… so now it was making incremental improvements.”

3. Persistent Mediocrity: The 81-81 Discussion

[41:58–54:56]

• The team and fanbase are tired of perpetual .500 finishes:
  • "It wore off, I'd say April 13, 2022." — Grant [42:05], on the surprise 2021 season’s afterglow.
  • Stuck in the “gray zone”—not bad enough to rebuild, not good enough to contend—leading to existential fan ennui.
  • Grant on what success would be: “It's like, I… It always seems like there's one weird trick that you're missing.” [42:29]
• Roster building issues:
  • Lack of farm system breakthroughs (“failure to launch” among prospects).
  • Unexciting but serviceable signings, trading “flash” for “floor.”
  • Overt caution about big free agents: "Before Devers, they would have considered [Tucker], but I think they invested a lot of money... in commercial real estate and that has not been… the best investment." [44:16]

4. Key New/Returning Players Discussed

• Rafael Devers: Grant is pleasantly surprised by his defense at 1B and thinks he could be more than competent [46:32].
• Willie Adames: After an abysmal start, Adames finished strong. “By the end of the season, you had a guy with 30 home runs just playing the dickens out of shortstop.” [55:56]
• Patrick Bailey: Defensive whiz, but bad months at the plate raise doubts. “All those other months, man…you're in Austin Hedges land.” [58:36]
• Jung Hoo Lee: Moving to a corner outfield spot should help (“less pressure,” more likely to succeed as a solid, but not star, contributor) [60:16].

5. The Farm & Future

[62:34–64:09]

• Still heavily dependent on very young (teenage) prospects; hope remains for a “surprise Pablo Sandoval” type. There is depth, but impact is years away.

6. Pitching Staff Outlook

[64:12–72:14]

• Maintenance signings: Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser
  • “An underwhelming reinvention of the rotation.”
  • Giants didn’t pursue the top-end options, choosing depth to prevent ‘calling up someone who isn’t ready.’ [64:38]
• Logan Webb: Their ace, now more of a strikeout pitcher, still among the league’s best. “I just love the fact that he came out last year and said, I think I could miss more bats with a crappy fastball. And then he did it.” — Grant [69:00]
• Bullpen: Sketchiest area; could “be a complete tire fire” [71:02].

7. Overall Verdict / Success Criterion

• Grant gets explicit: “86 and 76. …86 and 76 and they got to make...one of the wild cards...This is it. ...There's no more building towards next year.” [73:54]
  • Clear call for the Giants to finally decisively break .500.

Team Preview #2: Kansas City Royals (with Annie Rogers)

[80:20–114:53]

1. Kauffman Stadium Dimension Changes

[80:32–84:43]

• Outfield fences moved in to make the park more “neutral"—reward hard-hit balls with HRs, not just doubles/triples.
  • “Really what the Royals wanted to do was make it a more neutral ballpark… so that if you hit the ball well…you should be rewarded for it going out.” — Annie [80:56]
• Also thought to potentially help attract or retain hitters, but mainly tuned to their current roster composition.

2. Roster Core & Extensions

[84:43–86:36]

• Mikel Garcia signed a long-term extension after a breakout season at 3B; team now has "one of the best infields in baseball" with Bobby Witt Jr.
• Focus on stability as much as improvement. “It makes a lot of sense both in terms of financial stability, both for him and the club.” — Annie [85:08]

3. The Outfield Problem

[86:36–89:08]

• Outfield was MLB’s worst by WAR last year; improvement hinges on development.
  • “Jack Caglian” (top prospect) will get every opportunity; how he and Carter Jensen (catcher/DH) perform is crucial.
  • New faces (Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas) are more about raising the floor than adding star power.

4. Catching Position & Salvador Perez

[89:08–90:55]

• Perez remains the “now” solution, but Carter Jensen is seen as the future. Expect a blend; if Jensen hits, they’ll find spots for him.

5. Bobby Witt Jr.: Unquestioned Star

[90:55–94:01]

• Even an “off year” for Bobby is all-star caliber. Expect steady excellence, and moved-in fences could further boost power numbers.
  • “He's obviously established himself as one of the best players in the league and just being able to stay consistent throughout.” — Annie [91:52]

6. Rotation Health & Depth

[94:01–96:22]

• Last year’s injuries derailed much of the rotation (Cole Ragans, Chris Bubic); both are expected to be healthy for spring.
  • “This team goes as far as...Bobby Witt Jr. takes them and...how far this rotation takes them.” — Annie [95:51]
• Rich Hill cameo is remembered as the low point for pitching desperation.

7. Bullpen Rebuild

[99:07–101:15]

• New arms: Nick Mears, Matt Strahm, Alex Lange bolster a group that needed more swing-and-miss.
  • Expect continued competition for the last spots; Daniel Lynch, Steven Cruz, Luinder Avila, among others, could emerge.

8. Other Notables

• Seth Lugo Extended: Team values his innings-eater role despite recent homer issues [101:47].
• Noah Cameron: Rookie surprise, durability and adjustments against league expected to shape his sophomore season [103:19].
• Manager Matt Quatraro Extended: Players and FO happy; praised for balance of analytics and clubhouse management [104:44].

9. Stadium Future

[108:04–110:26]

• Royals still uncertain on new location; timeline tight with lease expiring post-2030.
  • “There’s very little info available, which is kind of crazy. ... The Royals are still not close to finding a location for their new home.” — Annie [108:42]

10. Measuring 2025 & 2026 Success

[110:26–113:37]

• Despite missing the postseason, a .500+ follow-up to the prior year’s 30-win leap is seen as a positive consolidation, if not fully satisfying.
• For 2026: “It's all about the postseason. It's making it back there.” — Annie [113:37]
  • Additional aims: figure out what they have in Jack Caglian and Carter Jensen, and cement that strong core.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "I think we can lead with a managerial hire because this was a weird one. This was a fun one.” — Meg Rowley, on Tony Vitello [36:10]
• “It’s just vibes curator. Is that too good?” — Grant Brisby [37:42]
• “I will just say: Kyle Tucker on the Dodgers. I think it makes them better.” — Grant Brisby, on a (sadly) non-Giants move [35:46]
• “You don't get that kind of carryover effect for it. That was a brilliant season, a great season. ... But yeah, you don't have a tail with that kind of season. You need to win at least the World Series to get a one-year honeymoon.” — Grant Brisby on 2021 [42:05]
• “The best manager is a manager who you just don’t notice, and maybe that’s what the Giants are going for.” — Grant Brisby [38:35]
• “By the end of the season, you had a guy with 30 home runs just playing the dickens out of shortstop, and that's a player you want.” — Grant on Adames [55:56]
• “If he gives you anything, yeah, he's like an All-Star. And all those other months, man... I, I don't want to say it, but you're in Austin Hedges land.” — Grant on Bailey [58:36]
• “You really just gotta hope for the next couple of years that surprise Pablo Sandoval happens.” — Grant [64:01]
• “But the bullpen could be a complete and utter disaster. That negates all of what they've been trying to do.” — Grant [72:14]
• “86 and 76 and they got to make the… wild card… There's no more building towards next year.” — Grant [74:00]
• “This episode brought to you by the color gray.” — Meg Rowley, summarizing the Giants [53:06]
• “What the Royals wanted to do was make it a more neutral ballpark, so that if you hit the ball well... you should be rewarded for it going out.” — Annie Rogers [80:56]
• “Jack Caglian...if that plays out, like, he could be a really, really good player for him this year.” — Annie [88:30]
• “Even an ‘off’ year for Bobby is still an elite year for pretty much anyone else.” — Paraphrasing Annie, re: Bobby Witt Jr. [92:00]
• “I hesitate to say it was a total failure for the Royals, given their history as an organization, but… there was a lot of disappointment... that they were going home.” — Annie [113:09]
• “It's all about the postseason. It's making it back there.” — Annie’s standard for Royals’ 2026 [113:37]

Important Segment Timestamps

• MLB.TV/ESPN Streaming Discussion: [01:58–07:16]
• WBC Team USA Stat Blast: [12:28–33:45]
• Giants Preview (with Grant Brisby): [34:31–79:44]
  • Manager & Vibes Discussion: [36:10–38:35]
  • Maintenance Offseason: [39:08–40:48]
  • Persistent .500-ness & Success Metrics: [41:58–54:56], [73:54–74:53]
  • Pitching Staff Worries: [64:12–72:14]
• Royals Preview (with Annie Rogers): [80:20–114:53]
  • Kauffman Dimension Changes: [80:32–84:43]
  • Core & Extensions: [84:43–86:36]
  • Outfield Question: [86:36–89:08]
  • Rotational Health: [94:01–96:22]
  • Stadium Saga: [108:04–110:26]
  • 2025 & 2026 Success: [110:26–113:37]

Overall Tone & Takeaways

The episode captures the wry humor and deep knowledge of Effectively Wild in full swing. The Giants and Royals are both portrayed as clubs trying to leverage stability and modest tweaks without big splashes or clear, immediate upside—while their fan bases dream of more. The hosts and guests balance statistical nuance with candid, often dry, assessments of team trajectories. Both previews highlight existential questions: “How long can you maintain being middling before something must change?” and “How do you build on improbable success without regression?”

The team previews are rich, thorough, and peppered with inside jokes, community shoutouts, and a genuine affection for both the baseball grind and the weirdness of team-building in 2026.